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WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (2 Viewers)

That 4th WR might be obvious after the draft. I expect it to be
I think it will as well. And probably dictated by landing spot to a large degree. Expecting them to be in Buffalo most likely.
With so much talent in play, I doubt the 5th wr drafted will end up being the 5th best. I'll be shocked if Thomas isn't 4th drafted.
I'll also be surprised if Thomas is not the 4th WR drafted in the NFL draft.

But I could easily see something like some people preferring a potential first round WR by someone like the Bills. They are obviously looking to exit from Diggs, just a matter of if it's this off-season or later but at most he looks like he's down to his last year. Not much else on the team, will matter to people, will matter a ton IMO if Diggs is gone by the draft.
 
That 4th WR might be obvious after the draft. I expect it to be
I think it will as well. And probably dictated by landing spot to a large degree. Expecting them to be in Buffalo most likely.
With so much talent in play, I doubt the 5th wr drafted will end up being the 5th best. I'll be shocked if Thomas isn't 4th drafted.
I expect Thomas to be the 4th WR drafted but it wouldn't surprise me if someone falls in love with Worthy's speed. Similar to John Ross or Henry Ruggs.
 
That 4th WR might be obvious after the draft. I expect it to be
I think it will as well. And probably dictated by landing spot to a large degree. Expecting them to be in Buffalo most likely.
With so much talent in play, I doubt the 5th wr drafted will end up being the 5th best. I'll be shocked if Thomas isn't 4th drafted.
I expect Thomas to be the 4th WR drafted but it wouldn't surprise me if someone falls in love with Worthy's speed. Similar to John Ross or Henry Ruggs.
Only difference between Worthy and those WRs is that Worthy is a football player. Well, Ruggs was coming on until his legal troubles. Ross wasn’t what I considered a football player.
 
That 4th WR might be obvious after the draft. I expect it to be
I think it will as well. And probably dictated by landing spot to a large degree. Expecting them to be in Buffalo most likely.
With so much talent in play, I doubt the 5th wr drafted will end up being the 5th best. I'll be shocked if Thomas isn't 4th drafted.
I expect Thomas to be the 4th WR drafted but it wouldn't surprise me if someone falls in love with Worthy's speed. Similar to John Ross or Henry Ruggs.
Only difference between Worthy and those WRs is that Worthy is a football player. Well, Ruggs was coming on until his legal troubles. Ross wasn’t what I considered a football player.
Oh, I agree with that. I was just using those guys as examples of guys who went higher in the draft than everybody expected because of their speed. Since Worthy is a better football player and is faster, he might go a lot earlier than people think.
 
That 4th WR might be obvious after the draft. I expect it to be
I think it will as well. And probably dictated by landing spot to a large degree. Expecting them to be in Buffalo most likely.
With so much talent in play, I doubt the 5th wr drafted will end up being the 5th best. I'll be shocked if Thomas isn't 4th drafted.
I expect Thomas to be the 4th WR drafted but it wouldn't surprise me if someone falls in love with Worthy's speed. Similar to John Ross or Henry Ruggs.
Only difference between Worthy and those WRs is that Worthy is a football player. Well, Ruggs was coming on until his legal troubles. Ross wasn’t what I considered a football player.
Oh, I agree with that. I was just using those guys as examples of guys who went higher in the draft than everybody expected because of their speed. Since Worthy is a better football player and is faster, he might go a lot earlier than people think.
Yes, Worthy is almost guaranteed to go round 1 and I think he will go top 15.
 
That 4th WR might be obvious after the draft. I expect it to be
I think it will as well. And probably dictated by landing spot to a large degree. Expecting them to be in Buffalo most likely.
With so much talent in play, I doubt the 5th wr drafted will end up being the 5th best. I'll be shocked if Thomas isn't 4th drafted.
I expect Thomas to be the 4th WR drafted but it wouldn't surprise me if someone falls in love with Worthy's speed. Similar to John Ross or Henry Ruggs.
Only difference between Worthy and those WRs is that Worthy is a football player. Well, Ruggs was coming on until his legal troubles. Ross wasn’t what I considered a football player.
Not trying to be argumentative but I for sure thought Ross was a real football player and one of the things that stood out to me, like Tank Dell last year, was he was very efficient in the red zone. When you do that your game is not just speed.

His body just never gave him a chance. If I recall before he even entered the league had an ACL on one knee, and microfracture surgery on the other knee.....and still ran like he did at the combine....and got hurt doing that. I never wanted him not so much because I thought he could not be any good, just seemed to high of a price to draft with all those injuries.
 

PFF going over their WRs. Very good podcast. They bite my style talking about Thomas. 24 min mark, but whole show is good.

It's two parts, btw. I watched both today and yesterday. I know pff gets ripped a lot, but this new GAS metric is pretty smart. GAS (Game Athleticism Score) sounds like they started with the answer and made the math fit to come up with this formula. They looked into players they whiffed on and calculated why. It was undervaluing in game athleticism. Puka would have been much higher in their evals had they used it with him. His GAS was 99th percentile.

Regardless of his high GAS, they're low (sort of) on Thomas. Holding him accountable for his two unassuming seasons before last year. Dinging him for drops. BUT, putting him down a deep deep tier from 5-15. Two days ago, before seeing this, I said that tier is 11 players deep. I don't see any way to rank them at this point. The draft won't even help much, but camp will. Need to hear how their progressing, earning starting jobs, etc. Fwiw: Gas scores for some of these wrs...

Malik Nabers, LSU - 99th percentile
Adonai Mitchell, Texas - 99th
Xavier Worthy, Texas - 99th
Xavier Legette, South Carolina - 99th
Rome Odunze, Washington - 98th
Brian Thomas Jr., LSU - 97th
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State - 96th
Keon Coleman, Florida State - 93rd
Troy Franklin, Oregon - 92nd
 

PFF going over their WRs. Very good podcast. They bite my style talking about Thomas. 24 min mark, but whole show is good.

It's two parts, btw. I watched both today and yesterday. I know pff gets ripped a lot, but this new GAS metric is pretty smart. GAS (Game Athleticism Score) sounds like they started with the answer and made the math fit to come up with this formula. They looked into players they whiffed on and calculated why. It was undervaluing in game athleticism. Puka would have been much higher in their evals had they used it with him. His GAS was 99th percentile.

Regardless of his high GAS, they're low (sort of) on Thomas. Holding him accountable for his two unassuming seasons before last year. Dinging him for drops. BUT, putting him down a deep deep tier from 5-15. Two days ago, before seeing this, I said that tier is 11 players deep. I don't see any way to rank them at this point. The draft won't even help much, but camp will. Need to hear how their progressing, earning starting jobs, etc. Fwiw: Gas scores for some of these wrs...

Malik Nabers, LSU - 99th percentile
Adonai Mitchell, Texas - 99th
Xavier Worthy, Texas - 99th
Xavier Legette, South Carolina - 99th
Rome Odunze, Washington - 98th
Brian Thomas Jr., LSU - 97th
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State - 96th
Keon Coleman, Florida State - 93rd
Troy Franklin, Oregon - 92nd
So, the players that eat more pinto beans I should move them up my draft board?
 
That PFF WR ranking vid is comparing BTjr to MVS. Yikes, but I get their point. Such limited work to go off of. LSU didn't need him to be anything but that deep threat though.
 
What people think Thomas does, is what Troy Franklin does.
Not that it necessarily contradicts what you're claiming, but I'm fairly sure I saw a graphic not long ago that showed Troy Franklin's catches last season to be perfectly split across all levels of the field. One 3rd near the LOS, one 3rd intermediate and one 3rd deep.

I'm not a Franklin fan per se but I think he's probably demonstrated more diversity than BTJ has so far in their careers. Both project as deep threats in the NFL though.
 
Not that it necessarily contradicts what you're claiming, but I'm fairly sure I saw a graphic not long ago that showed Troy Franklin's catches last season to be perfectly split across all levels of the field. One 3rd near the LOS, one 3rd intermediate and one 3rd deep.
Exactly. Franklin shows much more of a game than Thomas does.

To be clear, I am not talking about NFL success, or who is gonna bust or whatever. I don't think Thomas is as likely to bust as a Legette, or a Keon Coleman. I think Thomas is a good-looking prospect.

Fantasy-wise, I think Franklin's game shows more upside for target share, and that's what I am chasing. I think Franklin is more likely to get 8 targets a game than Thomas, that's all.
 
Exactly. Franklin shows much more of a game than Thomas does
Ah, based on your post I thought you were trying to say the opposite, and that you thought Franklin was the fairly one dimensional and raw deep threat that people (like me) think BTJ is currently.

I guess it depends which way you're looking at it as to how you interpret it.

I agree with you anyway.
 
Austin Abbott
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. checks 𝗦𝗢 many 𝗯𝗼𝘅𝗲𝘀

➖𝗦𝗶𝘇𝗲: 𝟲’𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟵 𝗹𝗯𝘀
➖𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱: 𝟰.𝟯𝟯 (𝟵𝟴𝘁𝗵%)
➖𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝟭,𝟭𝟳𝟳 𝗬𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀, 𝟭𝟳 𝗧𝗗’𝘀 (𝟭𝘀𝘁 in 𝗖𝗙𝗕)
➖𝗗𝗿𝗮𝗳𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹: 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗶𝗱 𝟭𝘀𝘁
➖𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝟱𝟯.𝟴% (𝟳 for 𝟭𝟯)

Every team usually has a really 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗥, every team usually has a really 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗥.

𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵.
 
I have the 1.2 in a devy league and I'm hoping the person at 1.1 takes him. I have had no luck in drafting WRs like him. I don't know if he can become a #1 WR.
 
Austin Abbott
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. checks 𝗦𝗢 many 𝗯𝗼𝘅𝗲𝘀

➖𝗦𝗶𝘇𝗲: 𝟲’𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟵 𝗹𝗯𝘀
➖𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱: 𝟰.𝟯𝟯 (𝟵𝟴𝘁𝗵%)
➖𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝟭,𝟭𝟳𝟳 𝗬𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀, 𝟭𝟳 𝗧𝗗’𝘀 (𝟭𝘀𝘁 in 𝗖𝗙𝗕)
➖𝗗𝗿𝗮𝗳𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹: 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗶𝗱 𝟭𝘀𝘁
➖𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝟱𝟯.𝟴% (𝟳 for 𝟭𝟯)

Every team usually has a really 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗥, every team usually has a really 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗥.

𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵.
I hope he doesn't turn out to be another Kevin White. A WR who did nothing before he broke out. A similar sized, speed and production WR with a 1st round (7th overall) draft capital.

Kevin White -
Size: 6'3" 215 , 32 5/8" arm length, 9 1/4" hand size
Combine Results: 4.35 forty yard dash, 23 bench press, 36 1/2" vertical jump, 10.25' broad jump
Production: 109 receptions, 1,447 yards, 13.3 yards average and 10 TDs
Draft Capital: 1st round 7th overall

Just sayin'
 
Austin Abbott
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. checks 𝗦𝗢 many 𝗯𝗼𝘅𝗲𝘀

➖𝗦𝗶𝘇𝗲: 𝟲’𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟵 𝗹𝗯𝘀
➖𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱: 𝟰.𝟯𝟯 (𝟵𝟴𝘁𝗵%)
➖𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝟭,𝟭𝟳𝟳 𝗬𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀, 𝟭𝟳 𝗧𝗗’𝘀 (𝟭𝘀𝘁 in 𝗖𝗙𝗕)
➖𝗗𝗿𝗮𝗳𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹: 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗶𝗱 𝟭𝘀𝘁
➖𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝟱𝟯.𝟴% (𝟳 for 𝟭𝟯)

Every team usually has a really 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗥, every team usually has a really 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗥.

𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵.
I hope he doesn't turn out to be another Kevin White. A WR who did nothing before he broke out. A similar sized, speed and production WR with a 1st round (7th overall) draft capital.

Kevin White -
Size: 6'3" 215 , 32 5/8" arm length, 9 1/4" hand size
Combine Results: 4.35 forty yard dash, 23 bench press, 36 1/2" vertical jump, 10.25' broad jump
Production: 109 receptions, 1,447 yards, 13.3 yards average and 10 TDs
Draft Capital: 1st round 7th overall

Just sayin'
Wasn't his issue injuries? Never played more than 9 games in his career.
 
Austin Abbott
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. checks 𝗦𝗢 many 𝗯𝗼𝘅𝗲𝘀

➖𝗦𝗶𝘇𝗲: 𝟲’𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟵 𝗹𝗯𝘀
➖𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱: 𝟰.𝟯𝟯 (𝟵𝟴𝘁𝗵%)
➖𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝟭,𝟭𝟳𝟳 𝗬𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀, 𝟭𝟳 𝗧𝗗’𝘀 (𝟭𝘀𝘁 in 𝗖𝗙𝗕)
➖𝗗𝗿𝗮𝗳𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹: 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗶𝗱 𝟭𝘀𝘁
➖𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝟱𝟯.𝟴% (𝟳 for 𝟭𝟯)

Every team usually has a really 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗥, every team usually has a really 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗥.

𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵.
I hope he doesn't turn out to be another Kevin White. A WR who did nothing before he broke out. A similar sized, speed and production WR with a 1st round (7th overall) draft capital.

Kevin White -
Size: 6'3" 215 , 32 5/8" arm length, 9 1/4" hand size
Combine Results: 4.35 forty yard dash, 23 bench press, 36 1/2" vertical jump, 10.25' broad jump
Production: 109 receptions, 1,447 yards, 13.3 yards average and 10 TDs
Draft Capital: 1st round 7th overall

Just sayin'
Wasn't his issue injuries? Never played more than 9 games in his career.
He had two different leg fractures in 2015 and 2016 and a shoulder scapula injury in 2017. He played 9 games in 2018, but sucked with 4 receptions all year. After that, was a member of the Arizona Cardinals (2019), San Francisco 49ers (2020), and New Orleans Saints (2021–2022). He wasn't hurt after 2017 and played 9 games in 2018, so I don't think we can blame all his issues on those early injuries.
 
Austin Abbott
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. checks 𝗦𝗢 many 𝗯𝗼𝘅𝗲𝘀

➖𝗦𝗶𝘇𝗲: 𝟲’𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟵 𝗹𝗯𝘀
➖𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱: 𝟰.𝟯𝟯 (𝟵𝟴𝘁𝗵%)
➖𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝟭,𝟭𝟳𝟳 𝗬𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀, 𝟭𝟳 𝗧𝗗’𝘀 (𝟭𝘀𝘁 in 𝗖𝗙𝗕)
➖𝗗𝗿𝗮𝗳𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹: 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗶𝗱 𝟭𝘀𝘁
➖𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝟱𝟯.𝟴% (𝟳 for 𝟭𝟯)

Every team usually has a really 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗥, every team usually has a really 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗥.

𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵.
I hope he doesn't turn out to be another Kevin White. A WR who did nothing before he broke out. A similar sized, speed and production WR with a 1st round (7th overall) draft capital.

Kevin White -
Size: 6'3" 215 , 32 5/8" arm length, 9 1/4" hand size
Combine Results: 4.35 forty yard dash, 23 bench press, 36 1/2" vertical jump, 10.25' broad jump
Production: 109 receptions, 1,447 yards, 13.3 yards average and 10 TDs
Draft Capital: 1st round 7th overall

Just sayin'
Wasn't his issue injuries? Never played more than 9 games in his career.
He had two different leg fractures in 2015 and 2016 and a shoulder scapula injury in 2017. He played 9 games in 2018, but sucked with 4 receptions all year. After that, was a member of the Arizona Cardinals (2019), San Francisco 49ers (2020), and New Orleans Saints (2021–2022). He wasn't hurt after 2017 and played 9 games in 2018, so I don't think we can blame all his issues on those early injuries.
I’m just gonna take a wild guess that multiple early career leg fractures impacted his game in 2017 and 2018, regardless of whether or now he showed up on the injury list or missed games.
 
Austin Abbott
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. checks 𝗦𝗢 many 𝗯𝗼𝘅𝗲𝘀

➖𝗦𝗶𝘇𝗲: 𝟲’𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟵 𝗹𝗯𝘀
➖𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱: 𝟰.𝟯𝟯 (𝟵𝟴𝘁𝗵%)
➖𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝟭,𝟭𝟳𝟳 𝗬𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀, 𝟭𝟳 𝗧𝗗’𝘀 (𝟭𝘀𝘁 in 𝗖𝗙𝗕)
➖𝗗𝗿𝗮𝗳𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹: 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗶𝗱 𝟭𝘀𝘁
➖𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝟱𝟯.𝟴% (𝟳 for 𝟭𝟯)

Every team usually has a really 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗥, every team usually has a really 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗥.

𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵.
I hope he doesn't turn out to be another Kevin White. A WR who did nothing before he broke out. A similar sized, speed and production WR with a 1st round (7th overall) draft capital.

Kevin White -
Size: 6'3" 215 , 32 5/8" arm length, 9 1/4" hand size
Combine Results: 4.35 forty yard dash, 23 bench press, 36 1/2" vertical jump, 10.25' broad jump
Production: 109 receptions, 1,447 yards, 13.3 yards average and 10 TDs
Draft Capital: 1st round 7th overall

Just sayin'
Wasn't his issue injuries? Never played more than 9 games in his career.
He had two different leg fractures in 2015 and 2016 and a shoulder scapula injury in 2017. He played 9 games in 2018, but sucked with 4 receptions all year. After that, was a member of the Arizona Cardinals (2019), San Francisco 49ers (2020), and New Orleans Saints (2021–2022). He wasn't hurt after 2017 and played 9 games in 2018, so I don't think we can blame all his issues on those early injuries.
I’m just gonna take a wild guess that multiple early career leg fractures impacted his game in 2017 and 2018, regardless of whether or now he showed up on the injury list or missed games.
Fractures heal without much impact on future years imo. Unlike tendon injuries.
 
Austin Abbott
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. checks 𝗦𝗢 many 𝗯𝗼𝘅𝗲𝘀

➖𝗦𝗶𝘇𝗲: 𝟲’𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟵 𝗹𝗯𝘀
➖𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱: 𝟰.𝟯𝟯 (𝟵𝟴𝘁𝗵%)
➖𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝟭,𝟭𝟳𝟳 𝗬𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀, 𝟭𝟳 𝗧𝗗’𝘀 (𝟭𝘀𝘁 in 𝗖𝗙𝗕)
➖𝗗𝗿𝗮𝗳𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹: 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗶𝗱 𝟭𝘀𝘁
➖𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝟱𝟯.𝟴% (𝟳 for 𝟭𝟯)

Every team usually has a really 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗥, every team usually has a really 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗥.

𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵.
I hope he doesn't turn out to be another Kevin White. A WR who did nothing before he broke out. A similar sized, speed and production WR with a 1st round (7th overall) draft capital.

Kevin White -
Size: 6'3" 215 , 32 5/8" arm length, 9 1/4" hand size
Combine Results: 4.35 forty yard dash, 23 bench press, 36 1/2" vertical jump, 10.25' broad jump
Production: 109 receptions, 1,447 yards, 13.3 yards average and 10 TDs
Draft Capital: 1st round 7th overall

Just sayin'
Wasn't his issue injuries? Never played more than 9 games in his career.
He had two different leg fractures in 2015 and 2016 and a shoulder scapula injury in 2017. He played 9 games in 2018, but sucked with 4 receptions all year. After that, was a member of the Arizona Cardinals (2019), San Francisco 49ers (2020), and New Orleans Saints (2021–2022). He wasn't hurt after 2017 and played 9 games in 2018, so I don't think we can blame all his issues on those early injuries.
I’m just gonna take a wild guess that multiple early career leg fractures impacted his game in 2017 and 2018, regardless of whether or now he showed up on the injury list or missed games.
Fractures heal without much impact on future years imo. Unlike tendon injuries.
Have you ever had a fracture and then played a sport afterward?
 
Austin Abbott
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. checks 𝗦𝗢 many 𝗯𝗼𝘅𝗲𝘀

➖𝗦𝗶𝘇𝗲: 𝟲’𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟵 𝗹𝗯𝘀
➖𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱: 𝟰.𝟯𝟯 (𝟵𝟴𝘁𝗵%)
➖𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝟭,𝟭𝟳𝟳 𝗬𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀, 𝟭𝟳 𝗧𝗗’𝘀 (𝟭𝘀𝘁 in 𝗖𝗙𝗕)
➖𝗗𝗿𝗮𝗳𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹: 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗶𝗱 𝟭𝘀𝘁
➖𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝟱𝟯.𝟴% (𝟳 for 𝟭𝟯)

Every team usually has a really 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗥, every team usually has a really 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗥.

𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵.
I hope he doesn't turn out to be another Kevin White. A WR who did nothing before he broke out. A similar sized, speed and production WR with a 1st round (7th overall) draft capital.

Kevin White -
Size: 6'3" 215 , 32 5/8" arm length, 9 1/4" hand size
Combine Results: 4.35 forty yard dash, 23 bench press, 36 1/2" vertical jump, 10.25' broad jump
Production: 109 receptions, 1,447 yards, 13.3 yards average and 10 TDs
Draft Capital: 1st round 7th overall

Just sayin'
Wasn't his issue injuries? Never played more than 9 games in his career.
He had two different leg fractures in 2015 and 2016 and a shoulder scapula injury in 2017. He played 9 games in 2018, but sucked with 4 receptions all year. After that, was a member of the Arizona Cardinals (2019), San Francisco 49ers (2020), and New Orleans Saints (2021–2022). He wasn't hurt after 2017 and played 9 games in 2018, so I don't think we can blame all his issues on those early injuries.
I’m just gonna take a wild guess that multiple early career leg fractures impacted his game in 2017 and 2018, regardless of whether or now he showed up on the injury list or missed games.
Fractures heal without much impact on future years imo. Unlike tendon injuries.
Have you ever had a fracture and then played a sport afterward?
Recreationally yes. I was still a dead-eye from 3 point range. Frighteningly so..
 
I'm completely confused as to what this means.
In terms of how Draft Media, and by extension, the fans, view Thomas.

Q. Johnston was rightly criticized for shortcomings in his game.

JSN was a favorite of everyone.

Thomas' outlook is closer to QJ, in that you have an impressive athlete that you need to project quite a bit to see where he gets a lot of targets. He's hitches and go routes. That is, almost, every target this season. He isn't a complete WR. Maybe he can do it, but we haven't seen it. JJ McCarthy argument

So I am a little surprised he's not having more holes poked in his game, as QJ did.
 
Matt Harmon
I've made this early career usage comparison for Brian Thomas Jr., so I thought it would be good to show the data.

Brian Thomas Jr.'s #ReceptionPerception prospect profile:
- 67.1% of his charted routes were a slant, curl or nine route

DK Metcalf's rookie season RP profile:
- 67.4% of his charted routes were a slant, curl or nine route

Would follow that DK plan for Thomas in Year 1. Get him on the field early as a big-play threat who wins on a small handful of routes. Put more on his plate as he develops.
 
I'm completely confused as to what this means.
In terms of how Draft Media, and by extension, the fans, view Thomas.

Q. Johnston was rightly criticized for shortcomings in his game.

JSN was a favorite of everyone.

Thomas' outlook is closer to QJ, in that you have an impressive athlete that you need to project quite a bit to see where he gets a lot of targets. He's hitches and go routes. That is, almost, every target this season. He isn't a complete WR. Maybe he can do it, but we haven't seen it. JJ McCarthy argument

So I am a little surprised he's not having more holes poked in his game, as QJ did.
It depends who you listen to. Initially I was enamored by his numbers and speed but have since cooled down tremendously after gathering more info on him.
 
It depends who you listen to. Initially I was enamored by his numbers and speed but have since cooled down tremendously after gathering more info on him
He's consensus #4. You can always find someone down on a guy, but Thomas is in a tier by himself.

I feel like his buzz could die down a little, and all it takes is Jeremiah or Brugler to say the NFL doesn't like him as much as Draft Twitter, and suddenly we will see a bunch of "scouts" who "took a second look" and "have questions".
 
It depends who you listen to. Initially I was enamored by his numbers and speed but have since cooled down tremendously after gathering more info on him
He's consensus #4. You can always find someone down on a guy, but Thomas is in a tier by himself.

I feel like his buzz could die down a little, and all it takes is Jeremiah or Brugler to say the NFL doesn't like him as much as Draft Twitter, and suddenly we will see a bunch of "scouts" who "took a second look" and "have questions".

While PFF ranks him 4th, that may also be just a consensus of wannabe influencers doing mocks. I don't know. I do know the two guys who run their podcast came out very low on him a couple days ago. One has him 9th the other 16th. They made valid points about his negatives while completely ignoring his positives. Of the two guys at Underdog who also have a pretty influential podcast, one likes him 4th, the other didn't say but was arguing his weaknesses. None of this mock draft consensus data means much does it? It's what NFL teams think. And we don't have that information.
 
It depends who you listen to. Initially I was enamored by his numbers and speed but have since cooled down tremendously after gathering more info on him
He's consensus #4. You can always find someone down on a guy, but Thomas is in a tier by himself.

I feel like his buzz could die down a little, and all it takes is Jeremiah or Brugler to say the NFL doesn't like him as much as Draft Twitter, and suddenly we will see a bunch of "scouts" who "took a second look" and "have questions".
He's getting some MVS and Q Johnson comps. He's faster than Johnson and had a better college career than MVS. He shows lateral quickness on some of his tape, not just vertical speed. He reminds me of Randy Moss. He is also a good red-zone target. He needs to learn more routes per the experts cause the NFL can take away the deep routes.
 
None of this mock draft consensus data means much does it? It's what NFL teams think. And we don't have that information
Mock draft consensus? Yeah, pretty useless. I wasn't using that.

I was using consensus big board, not consensus mocks. There's a difference. It doesn't matter if someone gets Alt to TEN correct, but consensus big board, he's most likely to be a top 12 pick. That info doesn't "matter" if you think these big boards are all wrong.

However, consensus big boards are really pretty accurate by the time the draft rolls around. The vast majority of the top 100 picks are ranked in the top 100 of consensus big boards.

The way it matters to me is that sentiment drives rookie picks. (This is all viewed though the lens of dynasty rookie drafts for me). People get emotionally attached to guys, and some players have a stronger fan base online. There is much more support for Thomas than Franklin. But I think Franklin does more that translates to a lot of targets than Thomas does.

I'm not really making some serious claim here. He's a popular guy. I think he is a good prospect who I think may be overvalued--in fantasy. Guys with his game in the NFL are WR2.

Off the top of my head Worthy, McConkey, and Franklin are three guys I could see getting more targets, and being drafted before him.
 
None of this mock draft consensus data means much does it? It's what NFL teams think. And we don't have that information
Mock draft consensus? Yeah, pretty useless. I wasn't using that.

From your link:

This consensus big board of each player's overall ranking for the 2024 NFL Draft was compiled using 140 Big Board(s),1094 1st Round Mock Draft(s), and 1012 Team Based Mock Draft(s).

So 2098 mock drafts and 140 big boards make that consensus. It's a consensus of mock drafts. :shrug:
 

So 2098 mock drafts and 140 big boards make that consensus. It's a consensus of mock drafts. :shrug:
OK.

It is a consensus big board, using data including mock drafts. It is not a consensus mock draft. There are no teams assigned to the spots.

I'll even concede the point, that it's a consensus of mock drafts, and I still say it matters, as a big board. You are getting the temp of a player at an approximate spot in the draft.

Consensus Big Boards are fairly accurate, so I think it matters, even if we don't have the teams' draft boards.
 
He seems to be very solid prospect and I will take him at 1.03 in a 14 team 1QB DEVY rookie only draft. We have a separate draft for DEVY / Underclassman. MHjr is off the board, so Nabers and Odunze will go 1 and 2. Not that I would take him, but Franklin is also rostered. So are Caleb and Maye, but I wouldn't take a QB that early in a start 1QB league anyway. At this time of the year people like to poke holes in players and that is fine, but I think sometimes we get prospect fatigue and overthink things.
 
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Off the top of my head Worthy, McConkey, and Franklin are three guys I could see getting more targets, and being drafted before him.
Who gets more TDs? I see BTJ getting a few long TDs and some red zone TDs. He has good elusiveness for a tall WR and has shown ability to high-point the ball.
 
Who gets more TDs? I see BTJ getting a few long TDs and some red zone TDs. He has good elusiveness for a tall WR and has shown ability to high-point the ball.
Yes. Think about what you are describing. That is not a fantasy WR1. Mike Evans as the exception.

I guess he has good elusiveness for a bigger guy. I don't think it's going to be a big part of his game. Outrunning guys after catching a deep ball? Yes. Breaking tackles and beating guys with shimmy, no. That's not him.

As you said, he's a deep threat, and at 6'4, should be useful in the RZ. If he hits, he's DK Metcalf-ish. That's a WR2 in PPR. And not a special one. Otherwise it's Mike Williams, MVS, Gabe Davis, etc.

I have no reason to doubt his ability to be a good NFL WR. I have major questions about his ability to make a difference on my fantasy team--when compared to other WR. If he hits, and McConkey hits, I think I would rather have Ladd, for the PPR numbers. Heck, if Xavier Legette hits, based on what he did last year, he could be a true #1.
 
One thing I keep hearing about him is that teams have been really impressed with his intelligence. Bruce Feldman referenced it in his mock draft from a few days ago but it's something I was hearing that teams came away from the combine impressed with.

This matters to me, think he's got a lot of growth potential to evolve into a more complete route runner. One of the reasons we are seeing WR's flourish so quickly is 7 on 7's, just playing football year round and honing his skills. I don't believe this is something he's been doing very much since he was a two sport star in high school. Only played basketball his freshman year in HS, did not even try out for the football team until his sophomore season, which was 6 years ago. Dane Brugler tweeted out months ago that he did not play football at all until his sophomore season in HS but I don't think that's true, just did not play much, was more of a basketball player(and got scholarship offers for that).

I have no doubt he's going very high in the draft as WR4, NFL teams love speed and players who can put the ball in the paint. Typically players with his lack of big route running tree leave me lower on them then the NFL and most of fantasy community but I'm not like that with him. His size, speed and fluid movement is rather incredible and when I combine that intelligence factor and that he's not been a full time focused football player for that long I just think he's got a lot of growth potential in his game.
 

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