Comparing Felix Jones and Darren McFadden (1 Viewer)

[az_prof]

It is interesting to me that up to a few weeks ago, most people would say that McFadden is a stud back--a top 5 RB perhaps. Felix Jones was widely believed to be a failure. It seems to me that both evaluations were exaggerated. If you look at their performance over the past five years (a sizable sample size), the two former teammates are very comparable.

DMC has been given a much easier road to being a featured back. He had to compete with sub-par competition in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush and now Mike Goodson. The team has always wanted him to be the featured guy and he has lost it off and on due to injury. His first two years were pretty disappointments; then he had one great year, followed by a good year that was cut short by injury; now this season has been abysmal.

Jones has had to compete against Marion Barber, Tashard Choice and now Murray--a much more challenging group IMO. His first year he didn't do much after getting hurt. The next three years he performed well as part of a RBBC. This year he has sat on the bench as Murray has been given the featured job, until the injury last week.

If you look at career ypc, Jones has the advantage, and they both have enough collective carries for this to be a meaningful statistic:

Jones: 5.1 ypc

McFadden: 4.5

Both are good but Jones is significantly better. Jones has never had a year less than 4.3 McFadden had a poor 3.4 ypc in 2009 and this year, so far (on limited carries) he is performing a disappointing 3.2

In terms of TDs, McFadden has gotten into the EZ more often.

McFadden: 18 TDS for an average of 1 td/35 runs.

Jones: 9 TDs for an average of 1 td/53 runs.

Significant advantage on TDs for DMC.

Receiving is comparable:

Jones has 109/889/1

McFadden: 137/1330/4

If anything, DMC has been more dynamic as a receiver than as a runner. If he can catch the ball in the open, he can take it to the house and is better at this than Jones.

Injuries and games played? Both have had their share of struggles with staying healthy and on the field:

Jones: 53 games played

DMC: 50 games played

Couldn't be more similar here...

Jones has been a more consistent runner; DMC has been a more dynamic receiver and has had a better noise for the EZ. Both have had troubles staying healthy.

So why is DMC so highly regarded and Jones a waiver wire afterthought? Is it just the presence of much better competition for Jones, in the form of Murray?

 

[Casting Couch]

brilliant.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

oh obviously.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Jones has gotten hurt twice at really inopportune times in terms of his career. Last year he was the solid #1 and got hurt just in time for Murray to play against a terrible Rams D at the same time the O-line came around just a little bit. People (including the Cowboys) got frustrated with him and that was that.

But he continues to perform well when they put the ball in his hands and IMO he's one of the most undervalued RBs in dynasty. He's also a FA next year and I'd think Jones will want to move on from the Cowboys, but there's a real glut of decent or better RBs in the league right now and a couple of them will also be FAs. So it's not clear how many openings there will be for him.

Indy? Arizona? Cincy? Atlanta? St. Louis? Most of them are maybes. There aren't as many clear cut openings as usual.

 

[Teef]

Donald Brown is better than both of them. Combined.

 

[SameSongNDance]

It is interesting to me that up to a few weeks ago, most people would say that McFadden is a stud back--a top 5 RB perhaps. Felix Jones was widely believed to be a failure. It seems to me that both evaluations were exaggerated. If you look at their performance over the past five years (a sizable sample size), the two former teammates are very comparable.

DMC has been given a much easier road to being a featured back. He had to compete with sub-par competition in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush and now Mike Goodson. The team has always wanted him to be the featured guy and he has lost it off and on due to injury. His first two years were pretty disappointments; then he had one great year, followed by a good year that was cut short by injury; now this season has been abysmal.

Jones has had to compete against Marion Barber, Tashard Choice and now Murray--a much more challenging group IMO. His first year he didn't do much after getting hurt. The next three years he performed well as part of a RBBC. This year he has sat on the bench as Murray has been given the featured job, until the injury last week.

If you look at career ypc, Jones has the advantage, and they both have enough collective carries for this to be a meaningful statistic:

Jones: 5.1 ypc

McFadden: 4.5

Both are good but Jones is significantly better. Jones has never had a year less than 4.3 McFadden had a poor 3.4 ypc in 2009 and this year, so far (on limited carries) he is performing a disappointing 3.2

In terms of TDs, McFadden has gotten into the EZ more often.

McFadden: 18 TDS for an average of 1 td/35 runs.

Jones: 9 TDs for an average of 1 td/53 runs.

Significant advantage on TDs for DMC.

Receiving is comparable:

Jones has 109/889/1

McFadden: 137/1330/4

If anything, DMC has been more dynamic as a receiver than as a runner. If he can catch the ball in the open, he can take it to the house and is better at this than Jones.

Injuries and games played? Both have had their share of struggles with staying healthy and on the field:

Jones: 53 games played

DMC: 50 games played

Couldn't be more similar here...

Jones has been a more consistent runner; DMC has been a more dynamic receiver and has had a better noise for the EZ. Both have had troubles staying healthy.



So why is DMC so highly regarded and Jones a waiver wire afterthought? Is it just the presence of much better competition for Jones, in the form of Murray?

Because DMC passed his conditioning test at the start of camp. Ya know, he actually tries in the off-season. There are intangibles here that are hard to measure like work ethic and mindset. Something about Felix just seems off to me.

 

[Casting Couch]

Donald Brown is better than both of them. Combined.

uhhh, no.

 

[Modog814]

Because DMC passed his conditioning test at the start of camp. Ya know, he actually tries in the off-season. There are intangibles here that are hard to measure like work ethic and mindset. Something about Felix just seems off to me.

Not quite fair, Felix under shoulder surgery after the season last year and wasn't medically cleared to participate in off season workouts.

 

[bonesman]

DMC has been given a much easier road to being a featured back. He had to compete with sub-par competition in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush and now Mike Goodson. The team has always wanted him to be the featured guy and he has lost it off and on due to injury. His first two years were pretty disappointments; then he had one great year, followed by a good year that was cut short by injury; now this season has been abysmal.

Is that a common perception? If so I need to be trying to trade for this guy where I don't already have him.

 

[Concept Coop]

Throw YPC out the window. Jones has long stetches where he worked mostly in passing situations, getting draws and other carries against relaxed, often nickle defenses.

He also ran behind a line with Flozell, Gurode, Davis, and Culombo for a while - his YPC dropped when the line was shuffled for the worse.

I think there is an argument for DMC being slightly overrated, and Felix being slightly underrated. But DMC is clearly the better option as a lead back.

 

[Saeniph]

It is interesting to me that up to a few weeks ago, most people would say that McFadden is a stud back--a top 5 RB perhaps. Felix Jones was widely believed to be a failure. It seems to me that both evaluations were exaggerated. If you look at their performance over the past five years (a sizable sample size), the two former teammates are very comparable.DMC has been given a much easier road to being a featured back. He had to compete with sub-par competition in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush and now Mike Goodson. The team has always wanted him to be the featured guy and he has lost it off and on due to injury. His first two years were pretty disappointments; then he had one great year, followed by a good year that was cut short by injury; now this season has been abysmal.Jones has had to compete against Marion Barber, Tashard Choice and now Murray--a much more challenging group IMO. His first year he didn't do much after getting hurt. The next three years he performed well as part of a RBBC. This year he has sat on the bench as Murray has been given the featured job, until the injury last week. If you look at career ypc, Jones has the advantage, and they both have enough collective carries for this to be a meaningful statistic:Jones: 5.1 ypcMcFadden: 4.5Both are good but Jones is significantly better. Jones has never had a year less than 4.3 McFadden had a poor 3.4 ypc in 2009 and this year, so far (on limited carries) he is performing a disappointing 3.2In terms of TDs, McFadden has gotten into the EZ more often.McFadden: 18 TDS for an average of 1 td/35 runs.Jones: 9 TDs for an average of 1 td/53 runs.Significant advantage on TDs for DMC.Receiving is comparable:Jones has 109/889/1McFadden: 137/1330/4If anything, DMC has been more dynamic as a receiver than as a runner. If he can catch the ball in the open, he can take it to the house and is better at this than Jones.Injuries and games played? Both have had their share of struggles with staying healthy and on the field:Jones: 53 games playedDMC: 50 games playedCouldn't be more similar here...Jones has been a more consistent runner; DMC has been a more dynamic receiver and has had a better noise for the EZ. Both have had troubles staying healthy.So why is DMC so highly regarded and Jones a waiver wire afterthought? Is it just the presence of much better competition for Jones, in the form of Murray?

Many reasons. The short answer is DMC is a bona fide three down back and therefore has greater opportunity to put up fantasy points.The long answer is you base your argument on an illogical (or perhaps, incomplete) interpretation of one stat (YPC) and seem to not appropriately weigh the other factors where DMC exceeds Jones other than just mentioning them.Some variables not considered regarding YPC are that Jones has 3 more games played yet 30% less carries. So clearly he's been more situational. I'll say that means fresher legs, though I'm not convinced how much that matters. It also means a lot of third down runs which tend to lead to a longer YPC. Other factors include better OL, better offense (QB, receivers, etc) in Dallas and more I'm not thinking about.The bottom line, while the amount of carries may seem statistically significant, it's not enough to wash out the multitude of other random variables involved. That's the pitfall of focusing on one stat. Just imagine when people take one game's worth of carries and decide to compare YPC. Yikes.

 

[Concept Coop]

Many reasons. The short answer is DMC is a bona fide three down back and therefore has greater opportunity to put up fantasy points.The long answer is you base your argument on an illogical (or perhaps, incomplete) interpretation of one stat (YPC) and seem to not appropriately weigh the other factors where DMC exceeds Jones other than just mentioning them.Some variables not considered regarding YPC are that Jones has 3 more games played yet 30% less carries. So clearly he's been more situational. I'll say that means fresher legs, though I'm not convinced how much that matters. It also means a lot of third down runs which tend to lead to a longer YPC. Other factors include better OL, better offense (QB, receivers, etc) in Dallas and more I'm not thinking about.The bottom line, while the amount of carries may seem statistically significant, it's not enough to wash out the multitude of other random variables involved. That's the pitfall of focusing on one stat. Just imagine when people take one game's worth of carries and decide to compare YPC. Yikes.

If we are going to use YPC, why stop at McFadden? Let's compare that 5.1 to Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, MJD, etcetera. They all have more carries, so their YPC should mean something too, right?

 

[B-Deep]

Fantasy rankings per Pro Football Reference

Felix

Year PosRank

2008 68

2009 --

2010 26

2011 42

2012 48

DMC

Year PosRank

2008 42

2009 49

2010 6

2011 34

2012 19

I bolded the reason why. DMC has had a season where he was great, Felix has never had a season inside the top 24.

pretty self explanatory. maybe both suck, but DMC has not sucked at least once, Felix not so much. Felix has also never finished ahead of DMC.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Throw YPC out the window. Jones has long stetches where he worked mostly in passing situations, getting draws and other carries against relaxed, often nickle defenses.

People keep saying this, but it's just not the case. You can check his down and distance numbers. And as I pointed out the last time you brought this up -- he's been good in his limited short yardage opportunities too.

 

[Concept Coop]

Throw YPC out the window. Jones has long stetches where he worked mostly in passing situations, getting draws and other carries against relaxed, often nickle defenses.

People keep saying this, but it's just not the case. You can check his down and distance numbers. And as I pointed out the last time you brought this up -- he's been good in his limited short yardage opportunities too.

I am a life long Cowboys fan and can tell you without a doubt that Felix's YPC has benefited from situation. Give me a moment and I'll see what I can find in the data. Although, I know it's a bit flawed. It is not going to tell us formation, clock, score, etc, without a lot of work that I am too lazy to do. But he certainly has benefited from the Cowboys passing as much as they do, having threats on the outside, and being used in passing situations, which isn't strictly 3rd down, for the Cowboys.In other words, put him in Oak and make him the lead back and his YPC isn't 5.1. Can we agree there?

 

[Concept Coop]

Throw YPC out the window. Jones has long stetches where he worked mostly in passing situations, getting draws and other carries against relaxed, often nickle defenses.

People keep saying this, but it's just not the case. You can check his down and distance numbers. And as I pointed out the last time you brought this up -- he's been good in his limited short yardage opportunities too.

I am a life long Cowboys fan and can tell you without a doubt that Felix's YPC has benefited from situation. Give me a moment and I'll see what I can find in the data. Although, I know it's a bit flawed. It is not going to tell us formation, clock, score, etc, without a lot of work that I am too lazy to do. But he certainly has benefited from the Cowboys passing as much as they do, having threats on the outside, and being used in passing situations, which isn't strictly 3rd down, for the Cowboys.In other words, put him in Oak and make him the lead back and his YPC isn't 5.1. Can we agree there?

Actually, this should do:His YPC is higher than Arian Foster's. Arian Foster has a better offensive line. Why? Replace Foster with any RB you consider more talented with a better offensive line, if Foster doesn't do it for you.The answers you come up with apply universally.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Don't get me wrong, I think McFadden's a good back. I'm mostly responding to the idea that Felix Jones is poor.

Specifically to your point... first and ten carries only including those in the first half of games:

Rush	  Avg.Felix Jones	 139	 5.75 Marion Barber	 118	 4.55 DeMarco Murray	  67	 3.93

 

[cracKer]

DMC has skinny legs, like a chicken

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Me: Picking up Tanner.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Throw YPC out the window. Jones has long stetches where he worked mostly in passing situations, getting draws and other carries against relaxed, often nickle defenses.

People keep saying this, but it's just not the case. You can check his down and distance numbers. And as I pointed out the last time you brought this up -- he's been good in his limited short yardage opportunities too.

I am a life long Cowboys fan and can tell you without a doubt that Felix's YPC has benefited from situation. Give me a moment and I'll see what I can find in the data. Although, I know it's a bit flawed. It is not going to tell us formation, clock, score, etc, without a lot of work that I am too lazy to do. But he certainly has benefited from the Cowboys passing as much as they do, having threats on the outside, and being used in passing situations, which isn't strictly 3rd down, for the Cowboys.

In other words, put him in Oak and make him the lead back and his YPC isn't 5.1. Can we agree there?

And imagine McFadden with Dallas or a number of other franchises - zowwee.

 

[Concept Coop]

Don't get me wrong, I think McFadden's a good back. I'm mostly responding to the idea that Felix Jones is poor.Specifically to your point... first and ten carries only including those in the first half of games:

Rush	  Avg.Felix Jones	 139	 5.75 Marion Barber	 118	 4.55 DeMarco Murray	  67	 3.93

As for Murray - Felix has spent time behind one of the better run blocking lines in the NFL; Murray the worst. But, you point does deserve some reseach on my part.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

As for Murray - Felix has spent time behind one of the better run blocking lines in the NFL; Murray the worst.

Nope First and ten carries, first half, only in 2011 and 2012:

Rush	Avg.Felix Jones	 43	4.93 DeMarco Murray	 67	3.93

You can find down and distances that favor Murray obviously -- so my point isn't to bag on Murray. It's just to say that the splits are pretty much random and when people use them to bag on Felix they're just confirming what they think they know. But IMO what they 'know' is heavily influenced by their frustration with the timing of his injuries.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

As for Murray - Felix has spent time behind one of the better run blocking lines in the NFL; Murray the worst.

Nope First and ten carries, first half, only in 2011 and 2012:

Rush Avg.Felix Jones 43 4.93 DeMarco Murray 67 3.93You can find down and distances that favor Murray obviously -- so my point isn't to bag on Murray. It's just to say that the splits are pretty much random and when people use them to bag on Felix they're just confirming what they think they know. But IMO what they 'know' is heavily influenced by their frustration with the timing of his injuries.

And the nature of them, such as Felix getting hurt, hamstring, muscle pull etc, while running out of bounds.

 

[Ernol]

It is interesting to me that up to a few weeks ago, most people would say that McFadden is a stud back--a top 5 RB perhaps. Felix Jones was widely believed to be a failure. It seems to me that both evaluations were exaggerated. If you look at their performance over the past five years (a sizable sample size), the two former teammates are very comparable.

DMC has been given a much easier road to being a featured back. He had to compete with sub-par competition in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush and now Mike Goodson. The team has always wanted him to be the featured guy and he has lost it off and on due to injury. His first two years were pretty disappointments; then he had one great year, followed by a good year that was cut short by injury; now this season has been abysmal.

Jones has had to compete against Marion Barber, Tashard Choice and now Murray--a much more challenging group IMO. His first year he didn't do much after getting hurt. The next three years he performed well as part of a RBBC. This year he has sat on the bench as Murray has been given the featured job, until the injury last week.

If you look at career ypc, Jones has the advantage, and they both have enough collective carries for this to be a meaningful statistic:

Jones: 5.1 ypc

McFadden: 4.5

Both are good but Jones is significantly better. Jones has never had a year less than 4.3 McFadden had a poor 3.4 ypc in 2009 and this year, so far (on limited carries) he is performing a disappointing 3.2

In terms of TDs, McFadden has gotten into the EZ more often.

McFadden: 18 TDS for an average of 1 td/35 runs.

Jones: 9 TDs for an average of 1 td/53 runs.

Significant advantage on TDs for DMC.

Receiving is comparable:

Jones has 109/889/1

McFadden: 137/1330/4

If anything, DMC has been more dynamic as a receiver than as a runner. If he can catch the ball in the open, he can take it to the house and is better at this than Jones.

Injuries and games played? Both have had their share of struggles with staying healthy and on the field:

Jones: 53 games played

DMC: 50 games played

Couldn't be more similar here...

Jones has been a more consistent runner; DMC has been a more dynamic receiver and has had a better noise for the EZ. Both have had troubles staying healthy.



So why is DMC so highly regarded and Jones a waiver wire afterthought? Is it just the presence of much better competition for Jones, in the form of Murray?

Because DMC passed his conditioning test at the start of camp. Ya know, he actually tries in the off-season. There are intangibles here that are hard to measure like work ethic and mindset. Something about Felix just seems off to me.

It could also be that McFadden put up (fairly recently) a stretch of almost 1.5 years where he produced among the best RBs in the game at a clip of over 20 points per game (in PPR), and during that stretch, carried more than a few teams to championships (I assume we are talking fantasy football, not real NFL). Felix has not gotten close to that kind of production.[Edit to add: This is not meant as bagging on Felix. I have been a big Felix fan and own him on many more teams than I do McFadden. I just don't think they are comparable for fantasy football purposes.]

 

[cvnpoka]

felix started off looking like a special, explosive player similar to jamaal charles. but the dogmatic coaches said he couldnt play until he "bulked up," which he did causing him to lose his ability to elude defenders. now hes routinely fat and slow and out of shape.

 

[elguapo07]

Fantasy rankings per Pro Football Reference

Felix

Year PosRank

2008 68

2009 --

2010 26

2011 42

2012 48

DMC

Year PosRank

2008 42

2009 49

2010 6

2011 34

2012 19

I bolded the reason why. DMC has had a season where he was great, Felix has never had a season inside the top 24.

pretty self explanatory. maybe both suck, but DMC has not sucked at least once, Felix not so much. Felix has also never finished ahead of DMC.

DMC was truly a great college back - workhorse, stud, heisman candidate et al. Felix was 1b to DMC's 1a but the thing that I really haven't seen in the pros with Felix is that he was absolutely electric and was a homerun hitter at the college level. While DMC has had a season in the pros that showed us his ceiling Felix has only teased with just a glimpse of what he could be but never seems to have put it all together and quite frankly I'm not sure we'll ever see it over the course of an entire season.

 

[SSOG]

Felix Jones has topped 20 carries twice in his 5 year career. That's significant. None of his coaches have ever considered him a workhorse, and they have therefore never given him a workhorse's workload. It's hard for FFers to get excited about a career CoP back, no matter how efficient he is- witness Leon Washington, Mewelde Moore, Jerious Norwood, etc.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Felix Jones has topped 20 carries twice in his 5 year career. That's significant. None of his coaches have ever considered him a workhorse, and they have therefore never given him a workhorse's workload. It's hard for FFers to get excited about a career CoP back, no matter how efficient he is- witness Leon Washington, Mewelde Moore, Jerious Norwood, etc.

This won't be exactly right because I went from memory in terms of which games should be included, but by my count there are twelve games dating from the 2009 playoffs where Jones was either the starter or was pressed into service as the #1 back during the game.He has 20+ touches in four of those games, and averaged ~18 touches overall. In those 12 games his yards/rush of 5.2 is essentially unchanged from his 5.1 career average. And at 18 touches per game he wasn't particularly limited. Which makes sense -- he's not a small back. What happened in college couldn't be less relevant. Jones played on a team with Darren McFadden and Peyton Hillis.So Jones was a first round pick, won the starting job and performed well -- losing the gig only as a result of injuries. Backs with his size, his build, and his fantastic vision aren't typically elevated injury risks, so I'm chalking them up to bad luck.I get that people get frustrated when backs are injured or their situation is murky -- just look at the stark raving mad comments about Jonathan Stewart not being talented for proof. Coaches get frustrated too. But despite the current glut of pretty good+ backs in the NFL, talent usually wins out. And I haven't seen anything yet that suggests Jones isn't talented.

 

[elguapo07]

wdcrob, I think Felix is indeed talented but the question is how much. The talent Jones showed in college was that of an electric and dynamic back that could take it to the house on any play - run, catch, return - with his great vision and burst. I really haven't seen that back at all other than a glimmer here and there. At this point I think his ceiling is that of a very very good CoP back but I'm gonna need to see more before I say he's a certifiable RB1.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

wdcrob, I think Felix is indeed talented but the question is how much. The talent Jones showed in college was that of an electric and dynamic back that could take it to the house on any play - run, catch, return - with his great vision and burst. I really haven't seen that back at all other than a glimmer here and there. At this point I think his ceiling is that of a very very good CoP back but I'm gonna need to see more before I say he's a certifiable RB1.

Mostly agree with this. I think he shows his skill frequently when he gets touches (he had a 13 yard run on his only carry a few games ago where he made two excellent cuts in the hole), but he hasn't proven anything consistently yet -- so we have to make our best guess. And when I make mistakes it's almost always being too slow to change my thinking on a player. So I know I could be off base. But his price before Murray went down made him a great price/value play and even now I think he's undervalued.

 

[nyy45]

My link

Last year in the thread "Felix Jones, is he this years Foster?", I made the argument that Felix is nothing but a spell back. I quantified this by taking a look at his stats and team stats from both Arkansas 2005-2007 and Cowboys 2008-2010. Felix was most productive when he received 30% of the workload and it was why his YPC was so high, mainly bc he had an every-down back to 'spell' (McFadden & Barber). The only year Felix had over 35% of the carries, 2010, he had 50%, was the least productive year for Felix personally and for his team. I used this information to quantify the emergence of DeMarco last year mainly due to the theory that Felix is a spell back. Link is above.

 

[Concept Coop]

What shot does Felix have at starting somewhere next year? Do the Cowboys bring him back - they didn't seem to have much use for him, prior to last week. Perhaps he wants a bigger role eslewhere? And perhaps the Cowboys want to invest in a back that offer more contrast to Murray?