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Confused about Odds? (1 Viewer)

PitbullTD

PitbullTD

Footballguy
So I see it go across the ESPN ticker Ravens (-2.5) at Kansas City, does this mean that Vegas actually has the Ravens as underdogs? Or what the hell? Someone please explain what this means to me, have always wondered.

 
Vegas has the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.

Now what will happen with the line is if tons of people start betting on the Ravens the line will move to say -3 or -3.5. Vegas move the line to try to get action on KC. The opposite will happen if the public is betting on KC at the 2.5 line and they will move it down to get more action on the Ravens.

 
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PitbullTD said:
So I see it go across the ESPN ticker Ravens (-2.5) at Kansas City, does this mean that Vegas actually has the Ravens as underdogs? Or what the hell? Someone please explain what this means to me, have always wondered.
Click to expand...
No, Vegas has BAL as the favorite. They're "giving" 2.5 points, so if they win by 3, those who have bet Ravens -2.5 win, and those who bet KC +2.5 lose. If the final score is BAL-14, KC-13, those who bet KC +2.5 win, as KC is "getting" 2.5 points as the underdog. You're adjusting the final score by the amount of the line to determine which side of the bet wins.
 
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belljr said:
Vegas has the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.Now what will happen with the line is if tons of people start betting on the Ravens the line will move to say -3 or -3.5. Vegas move the line to try to get action on KC. The opposite will happen if the public is betting on KC at the 2.5 line and they will move it down to get more action on the Ravens.
Click to expand...
To expand, Vegas is happy with equal action on either side of a bet, because they still take the juice (fee you pay to bet) from the losing side of usually 5% to 10%. So if you made a $100 bet on Ravens -2.5points at -110 (10% juice), you'd actually be paying $110 if they failed to cover (but only winning $100 if they did).
 
If you were to bet and took KC @ +2.5, you would need KC to win the game outright or only lose by less then 2.5pts

 
belljr said:
Vegas has the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.Now what will happen with the line is if tons of people start betting on the Ravens the line will move to say -3 or -3.5. Vegas move the line to try to get action on KC. The opposite will happen if the public is betting on KC at the 2.5 line and they will move it down to get more action on the Ravens.
Click to expand...
I am clueless about this stuff too. Let's say I placed a bet today on the line and a QB gets injured in practice tomorrow and the line shifts. Do I "own" the bet at what I placed it at, or does my original bet turn into the new line for the team I selected (if that makes any sense)?
 
Sweet Love said:
belljr said:
Vegas has the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.Now what will happen with the line is if tons of people start betting on the Ravens the line will move to say -3 or -3.5. Vegas move the line to try to get action on KC. The opposite will happen if the public is betting on KC at the 2.5 line and they will move it down to get more action on the Ravens.
Click to expand...
I am clueless about this stuff too. Let's say I placed a bet today on the line and a QB gets injured in practice tomorrow and the line shifts. Do I "own" the bet at what I placed it at, or does my original bet turn into the new line for the team I selected (if that makes any sense)?
Click to expand...
You own it at the line you made the bet at...and line changes can lead to very different types of bets. Google "middling".
 
Sweet Love said:
belljr said:
Vegas has the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.Now what will happen with the line is if tons of people start betting on the Ravens the line will move to say -3 or -3.5. Vegas move the line to try to get action on KC. The opposite will happen if the public is betting on KC at the 2.5 line and they will move it down to get more action on the Ravens.
Click to expand...
I am clueless about this stuff too. Let's say I placed a bet today on the line and a QB gets injured in practice tomorrow and the line shifts. Do I "own" the bet at what I placed it at, or does my original bet turn into the new line for the team I selected (if that makes any sense)?
Click to expand...
When you place a bet you are getting a ticket at that moment to reclaim the winnings (should you win) once the event happens. Once the bet is placed, it is placed.Think about it as if you went to a horserace and went to the window and put $2 on #1 in Race 6 as soon as the day starts. You can do this even though the race hasn't started yet - and in fact is hours away. Should the horse get sick and removed from the race ("scratched") the bet is still placed. Often the early bets are done to get what you think are better odds - or if you think you cannot get to a place to make the bet at the normal time.There are futures bets - some of which are available now for NFC Champs, AFC Champs and SB winner - and those teams / games are weeks away. If you think Chicago, Green Bay or Philly can win the Super Bowl you can get 10-1 or 12-1 odds on your money - but you must buy that "ticket" now.
 
this might help:

http://walterfootball.com/betrules.php

Also, walter uses something to get action %'s, and as of his last update 87% of the action was on with Balt laying the points.

Usually if a play looks too good to be true, it is! (Alright, now for a disclaimer: observe logo to the left, and note i just printed out my e-tickets for sunday's game)

 
Sweet Love said:
belljr said:
Vegas has the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.Now what will happen with the line is if tons of people start betting on the Ravens the line will move to say -3 or -3.5. Vegas move the line to try to get action on KC. The opposite will happen if the public is betting on KC at the 2.5 line and they will move it down to get more action on the Ravens.
Click to expand...
I am clueless about this stuff too. Let's say I placed a bet today on the line and a QB gets injured in practice tomorrow and the line shifts. Do I "own" the bet at what I placed it at, or does my original bet turn into the new line for the team I selected (if that makes any sense)?
Click to expand...
As others mentioned it's what the line is at time of bet.Back in the day you knew a couple guys and would call to see what their lines were, usually the same, but one guy might have a line .5 the way you like so you place it with that guy because his line was "better".You'll hear gambling pros and dorks get all excited when OMG I GOT THE LINE AT 4 and it's NOW AT 2!!!!!Or they will get props on say the Eagles at 20-1 to WIN the SB pre season but now they are down to 8-1 to win the SB.They are "excited" because they "made money" but reality is they won nothing unless the Eagles win.That may be bad wording but basically at the time they made the bet, the payoff was bigger, now a team is closer to a favorite and the odds lowered, they made the "right" bet.ETA: been a long time since I placed an actual bet with a book
 
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Jeff Pasquino said:
Sweet Love said:
belljr said:
Vegas has the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.

Now what will happen with the line is if tons of people start betting on the Ravens the line will move to say -3 or -3.5. Vegas move the line to try to get action on KC. The opposite will happen if the public is betting on KC at the 2.5 line and they will move it down to get more action on the Ravens.
Click to expand...
I am clueless about this stuff too. Let's say I placed a bet today on the line and a QB gets injured in practice tomorrow and the line shifts. Do I "own" the bet at what I placed it at, or does my original bet turn into the new line for the team I selected (if that makes any sense)?
Click to expand...
When you place a bet you are getting a ticket at that moment to reclaim the winnings (should you win) once the event happens. Once the bet is placed, it is placed.Think about it as if you went to a horserace and went to the window and put $2 on #1 in Race 6 as soon as the day starts. You can do this even though the race hasn't started yet - and in fact is hours away. Should the horse get sick and removed from the race ("scratched") the bet is still placed.

Often the early bets are done to get what you think are better odds - or if you think you cannot get to a place to make the bet at the normal time.

There are futures bets - some of which are available now for NFC Champs, AFC Champs and SB winner - and those teams / games are weeks away. If you think Chicago, Green Bay or Philly can win the Super Bowl you can get 10-1 or 12-1 odds on your money - but you must buy that "ticket" now.
Click to expand...
Horseracing bets are very different than other sports betting.
The single biggest key to horse racing odds are that they are determined by what is called a pari-mutuel system, which is just a fancy French term for mutual betting. That means that the odds are determined by the bettors. When you look at a program you will see odds listed for every horse, but those are just the morning line odds that have been set by the track handicapper. Though they are usually fairly accurate they are just a guide and they ultimately have no impact on the final odds on a horse. Instead, the odds are set by the amount of money that is bet on each horse relative to how much is bet on each other horse. The more money the public bets on a horse, the lower the odds will be.

Because the odds are determined in this way, they will change throughout the betting period before the race. In many cases the odds will change a lot. It is not uncommon to see a horse that ends up as a longshot start off as the favorite if someone makes a large bet on him to win right when betting opens. Conversely, a favorite can look like a real bargain at the start of betting - he may be 30/1 20 minutes before the race, but end up at 2/1 by post time. The biggest thing to remember, and the biggest mistake novice bettors make, is that your payout will not be whatever the odds are when you make your bet. It will be whatever the odds are when the race starts. Every time I go to the track I inevitably hear novice bettors express frustration that the horse they thought was 20/1 ends up at 3/1. This is different than sports betting where the odds are locked in when you make your bet. Because of that it is important to not only look at where the odds are at the time, but to get an idea of where they are likely to end up at post time.

When a horse is scratched prior to a race, win, place and show tickets (bets that the horse will win, finish in the top two or finish in the top three, respectively) are refunded. Even after the race, attempting to "cash" those tickets will result in a refund.
Click to expand...
 
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rick6668 said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
Sweet Love said:
belljr said:
Vegas has the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.

Now what will happen with the line is if tons of people start betting on the Ravens the line will move to say -3 or -3.5. Vegas move the line to try to get action on KC. The opposite will happen if the public is betting on KC at the 2.5 line and they will move it down to get more action on the Ravens.
Click to expand...
I am clueless about this stuff too. Let's say I placed a bet today on the line and a QB gets injured in practice tomorrow and the line shifts. Do I "own" the bet at what I placed it at, or does my original bet turn into the new line for the team I selected (if that makes any sense)?
Click to expand...
When you place a bet you are getting a ticket at that moment to reclaim the winnings (should you win) once the event happens. Once the bet is placed, it is placed.Think about it as if you went to a horserace and went to the window and put $2 on #1 in Race 6 as soon as the day starts. You can do this even though the race hasn't started yet - and in fact is hours away. Should the horse get sick and removed from the race ("scratched") the bet is still placed.

Often the early bets are done to get what you think are better odds - or if you think you cannot get to a place to make the bet at the normal time.

There are futures bets - some of which are available now for NFC Champs, AFC Champs and SB winner - and those teams / games are weeks away. If you think Chicago, Green Bay or Philly can win the Super Bowl you can get 10-1 or 12-1 odds on your money - but you must buy that "ticket" now.
Click to expand...
Horseracing bets are very different than other sports betting.
The single biggest key to horse racing odds are that they are determined by what is called a pari-mutuel system, which is just a fancy French term for mutual betting. That means that the odds are determined by the bettors. When you look at a program you will see odds listed for every horse, but those are just the morning line odds that have been set by the track handicapper. Though they are usually fairly accurate they are just a guide and they ultimately have no impact on the final odds on a horse. Instead, the odds are set by the amount of money that is bet on each horse relative to how much is bet on each other horse. The more money the public bets on a horse, the lower the odds will be.

Because the odds are determined in this way, they will change throughout the betting period before the race. In many cases the odds will change a lot. It is not uncommon to see a horse that ends up as a longshot start off as the favorite if someone makes a large bet on him to win right when betting opens. Conversely, a favorite can look like a real bargain at the start of betting - he may be 30/1 20 minutes before the race, but end up at 2/1 by post time. The biggest thing to remember, and the biggest mistake novice bettors make, is that your payout will not be whatever the odds are when you make your bet. It will be whatever the odds are when the race starts. Every time I go to the track I inevitably hear novice bettors express frustration that the horse they thought was 20/1 ends up at 3/1. This is different than sports betting where the odds are locked in when you make your bet. Because of that it is important to not only look at where the odds are at the time, but to get an idea of where they are likely to end up at post time.

When a horse is scratched prior to a race, win, place and show tickets (bets that the horse will win, finish in the top two or finish in the top three, respectively) are refunded. Even after the race, attempting to "cash" those tickets will result in a refund.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
:lol:
 
belljr said:
Vegas has the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.Now what will happen with the line is if tons of people start betting on the Ravens the line will move to say -3 or -3.5. Vegas move the line to try to get action on KC. The opposite will happen if the public is betting on KC at the 2.5 line and they will move it down to get more action on the Ravens.
Click to expand...
wrong. vegas will usually only move the line if they determine "sharp" money is coming in on a particular team.eta ambiguity.
 
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cvnpoka said:
belljr said:
Vegas has the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.Now what will happen with the line is if tons of people start betting on the Ravens the line will move to say -3 or -3.5. Vegas move the line to try to get action on KC. The opposite will happen if the public is betting on KC at the 2.5 line and they will move it down to get more action on the Ravens.
Click to expand...
wrong. vegas will only move the line if they determine "sharp" money is coming in on a particular team.
Click to expand...
They are also very wary of "crossing" 3 or 7, they may just adjust the money payouts instead (+120 or +110 instead of -110)
 
Phurfur said:
CompetitiveEdgeFootball said:
It's really a too close to call. The home team is always "given" a 3 point advantage because it's a perceived edge.
Click to expand...
This is not necessarily true. The line is set to get even betting on both sides.
Click to expand...
Right, but the 3 points for being a home team is factored into that. If the general public is going to assume two teams are relatively even and the betting is going to go 50-50 on a neutral field, then most books will set the line at -3 for the home team. If the general public feels that the road team might be 3 points better than the home team, the books will set the game at NL or 0.5 or something.They do want equal action on both sides, but the home/away aspect is taken into account when basing that action.
 
since we are talking about betting and all. can someone tell me what are some of the best websites for betting on NFL games? and sports in general?

 
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emge said:
since we are talking about betting and all. can someone tell me what are some of the best websites for betting on NFL games? and sports in general?
Click to expand...
I don't bet online, but I have a buddy that bets daily and he swears by sportsbook.com.
 
emge said:
since we are talking about betting and all. can someone tell me what are some of the best websites for betting on NFL games? and sports in general?
Click to expand...
This question has been addressed in the gambling thread in the FFA many times. I'm at Sportsbook.com, but that's not necessarily the best option for everyone.
 
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