Has there ever been a thorough analysis of whether the "he's extra motivated because he's in a contract year" narrative actually leads to on the field success? I'm also curious about whether coaches will ride players (especially RB's) harder if the player is in a walk year and is unlikely to return. I've heard both of these theories extensively and curious to know whether they hold up or are simply myths.
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Contract years (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TS Garp
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
From what I have seen, it’s mostly junk science. Every year is a contract year for most players. Back when I researched it more thoroughly, IIRC a third of players did better, a third of players did the same, and a third of players did worse. The extra motivation factor really didn’t factor into it. Personally, I happen to think players with bigger roles play a little more conservative to try to stay healthy and be around for a new free agent contract.
Thanks. This is my suspicion, as well, but I wonder if there's been an extensive study. I'm guessing there may be a slightly stronger correlation in baseball or basketball.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, the guys that are underpaid in any sport looking to get a premium long-term deal would be the ones most apt to go 110% to have a strong season to get in that elite stratosphere. I would guess that is a small data set, as it would mostly consist of very good players trying to fall in that top tier category with a short term burst to show they are elite. In basketball, that is probably harder to pull off, as the numbers are the numbers and it's tough to have three years of mediocre production and then have a year going from 8 PPG to 22 PPG just because they played harder. That might be more feasible as a pitcher in baseball, say, or a forward in hockey (score a lot more goals). But overall I still don't think players can control their playing time, usage, and touches to the point that they can suddenly just turn on a switch and go gangbusters.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
how about the opposite - players who've been paid with a new giant contract, how do they perform in the next season?
ex., A. Jones. fatcat contract. can see him not trying as hard now that he got paid.
ex., A. Jones. fatcat contract. can see him not trying as hard now that he got paid.
HW_53
Footballguy
A significant majority of Raider FA acquisitions over the past 20 years could fit this bill.. Brown, Moss, Brown again.. among many others.. One example I can recall of a player getting up for a contract year is DeMarco Murray.. beastly for the Cowboys... cashed in and flopped with the Eagles. I think its a real thing..
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Also possible that the Murray situation is anecdotal & we might be inclined to look back on it assigning a false conclusion with hindsight when it may have just been coincidence.
Maybe the contract-year success stories stand out stronger in memory than the contract year busts?
I used to believe in this - the subject comes up in fantasy baseball circles a lot. The numbers tend to shake out as @Anarchy99suggests above with 33% split between success, neutral & failure.
Teezee
Footballguy
Oh absolutely. In fact I would estimate that at least half of all NFL players "shut it down" after they get the bag. Most aren't worth the long term money. And teams know this but a lot of their decisions are based on supply and demand. For example you mention Aaron Jones, any organization that spends top dollar on a free agent RB aren't doing it right. The best organizations know the onboarding time for a rookie RB that can get acclimated and contribute right away presents the least amount of risk.
On the flipside, the contract year is a very real motivator. It's fickle, especially in the short shelf life of an NFL player. It's all about securing the next bag for most. Iff anyone has ever come in close contact with athletes or executives, you'll come away with the sense that both player and team play a game of financial leverage.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I think @Doug Drinenor @Chase Stuartdid a study on this many years ago, but I didn't find it in a quick Google search. My recollection is that there was no correlation of performance to final contract year. @David Yudkinalso made a good point above, that players are often effectively in contract years well before the final year of their contracts, since teams build in outs for releasing players early.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
You sort of touched on what I was saying, but I was referencing that a non-star player could be released at any time with relatively minimal impact (unlike baseball or basketball where almost all contracts are guaranteed), regardless of the way the contract was put together. Pro Bowl level players usually get decent signing bonuses and guaranteed money, but the majority of the players in the league don't have millions and millions of dollars in dead cap money if they were to be released. So a player that has a five year contract could be cut after a year or two with poor performance.
I also think that many positions in football aren't necessarily conducive to putting up better numbers based on suddenly applying more effort . . . receivers can't suddenly generate more targets, defenders can't wave a magic wand to get more tackles or interceptions, and a running back can't just will himself to score 15 TDs. Players need playing time and opportunities, and a team's WR3 is unlikely to go from 60 targets to 160 targets just because he wants a big contract.
Tau837
Footballguy
I think the idea is that players are more motivated, which leads them to invest more effort in offseason preparation and possibly leads them to play through injuries to a greater extent. If true, that could then result in earning greater opportunity (more snaps, targets, etc.).
That said, I agree with you that I don't believe there is any general positive correlation.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That said, the theory is a generalization, if we’re looking at specific players, it is possible that there are a few players who maybe gave it a little more juice in a contract year.
I think that sort of anecdotal evidence might even be the basis for the fallacious generalization.
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