Gore seems like one of those guys who owners are automatically marking down as a first round pick without really thinking twice, but I'm having a hard time getting too excited about him.
First, let's look at the situation around him:
The good:
* The Niners would like the offense to revolve around a power running game led by Gore.
* They brought back Moran Norris,the fullback who blocked for him in his magical 2006 season.
* They signed Marvel Smith -- risky move, but could pay off.
* The Niners play Detroit in Week 16.
The bad:
* Before the draft, the Niners talked about the need for a back to complement Gore and they drafted Glenn Coffee, who could steal some carries and see 10-12 touches a game.
* The QB situation remains very unsettled.
* The WR corps should be improved with the addition of Crabtree, but it's still shaky.
* They didn't address the offensive line in the draft.
On to Gore himself:
The good:
* Three 1,000 yard seasons in a row.
* Just turned 26 and should be entering his prime.
* Only two years removed from a season of 2,000+ combined yards.
The bad:
* 2006 is looking like it could be an outlier.
* Has never scored 10 td's in a season.
* Isn't as injury prone as some think but does tend to get dinged up.
* Had 8 games with more than 120 rushing yards in 2006 -- had one in 2007 and one in 2008.
Conclusion:
There's a lot to like about Gore, but I just wonder if people are chasing his 2006 numbers when they rate him. I don't see him falling off a cliff by any stretch, but I also wouldn't be shocked if his values ended up being that of a solid RB2 rather than a RB1 this year. I like him in the second round, which I realize means that I won't own him. I just wonder if his stats will be meaningfully better than guys like Ronnie Brown, Barber, Pierre Thomas, and Moreno, all of whom will be there in the 2nd, whereas you likely need to grab Gore somewhere between the 6th and 10th pick in the first if you want him.
All of this said, now that I've written this, he'll likely go off for 2,000+ and 15 td's this year.
Thoughts?
First, let's look at the situation around him:
The good:
* The Niners would like the offense to revolve around a power running game led by Gore.
* They brought back Moran Norris,the fullback who blocked for him in his magical 2006 season.
* They signed Marvel Smith -- risky move, but could pay off.
* The Niners play Detroit in Week 16.
The bad:
* Before the draft, the Niners talked about the need for a back to complement Gore and they drafted Glenn Coffee, who could steal some carries and see 10-12 touches a game.
* The QB situation remains very unsettled.
* The WR corps should be improved with the addition of Crabtree, but it's still shaky.
* They didn't address the offensive line in the draft.
On to Gore himself:
The good:
* Three 1,000 yard seasons in a row.
* Just turned 26 and should be entering his prime.
* Only two years removed from a season of 2,000+ combined yards.
The bad:
* 2006 is looking like it could be an outlier.
* Has never scored 10 td's in a season.
* Isn't as injury prone as some think but does tend to get dinged up.
* Had 8 games with more than 120 rushing yards in 2006 -- had one in 2007 and one in 2008.
Conclusion:
There's a lot to like about Gore, but I just wonder if people are chasing his 2006 numbers when they rate him. I don't see him falling off a cliff by any stretch, but I also wouldn't be shocked if his values ended up being that of a solid RB2 rather than a RB1 this year. I like him in the second round, which I realize means that I won't own him. I just wonder if his stats will be meaningfully better than guys like Ronnie Brown, Barber, Pierre Thomas, and Moreno, all of whom will be there in the 2nd, whereas you likely need to grab Gore somewhere between the 6th and 10th pick in the first if you want him.
All of this said, now that I've written this, he'll likely go off for 2,000+ and 15 td's this year.
Thoughts?
I'd take AJ and Calvin over him. And definitely Turner as well. I don't/won't ever own him.