Corona Virus Serious Level - 3.6.20 (1 Viewer)

[fred_1_15301]

No vaccine exists for any human coronavirus. This is completely unrelated to anti-vaxxers.

Yeah I wasn’t following that angle either.  You would expect to see a cluster among the anti-vaxxers if there was an effective vaccine available.

 

[-fish-]

I’m pretty certain March Madness will be cancelled.  I imagine that will get the attention of the “it’s just a cold” crowd.

 

[fred_1_15301]

I’m pretty certain March Madness will be cancelled.  I imagine that will get the attention of the “it’s just a cold” crowd.

I don't think there are many left from that crowd.  My wife is an infectious disease epidemiologist and was sort of downplaying this early on.  Her sister is an infectious disease physician and was also downplaying it early on.  Both are far more concerned now given how this has evolved.  

 

[Doug B]

I’m pretty certain March Madness will be cancelled.  I imagine that will get the attention of the “it’s just a cold” crowd.

Maybe, maybe, maybe they can get some games in without paying fans. But really ... it'll look horrible in a couple of weeks to have those games going on.

 

[-fish-]

I don't think there are many left from that crowd.  My wife is an infectious disease epidemiologist and was sort of downplaying this early on.  Her sister is an infectious disease physician and was also downplaying it early on.  Both are far more concerned now given how this has evolved.  

You should see some of the twitter reactions to Pearl Jam postponing their tour.  There are still a significant amount of people taking the “the flu is worse” or “it’s just a cold” track.  

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

I’m pretty certain March Madness will be cancelled.  I imagine that will get the attention of the “it’s just a cold” crowd.

Not hearing this.  I've heard using less sites, ;possibly playing games without fans but not one person has said cancelled yet.  You are pretty certain?

 

[Penguin]

DEFCON 3 initiated

 

[Terminalxylem]

I was just at the Dr. for a check up and the nurse asked me if I had been out of the country recently.  That was a first.  I asked if everyone was freaking out about the new virus and she said, "Oh, yeah." and kind of chuckled.  I told her that I'm not concerned about it and she said she wasn't either.  I haven't seen anyone from the medical profession act as if it's a big deal.  Taking careful precautions is good but some people need to relax a bit.

Do the heads of the NIH infectious disease division, CDC and WHO count?

 

[Terminalxylem]

I don't think there are many left from that crowd.  My wife is an infectious disease epidemiologist and was sort of downplaying this early on.  Her sister is an infectious disease physician and was also downplaying it early on.  Both are far more concerned now given how this has evolved.  

An ID physician, really? That's shocking.

 

[fred_1_15301]

An ID physician, really? That's shocking.

Well this was in the early stages ( at least regarding my sister-in-law).  Although last night my wife was again arguing that this was all caused by the media and that it was similar to the flu.  Of course when I present the differences, she screamed “I’m going to bed”.    

 

[Joe Bryant]

Funny how the number keeps climbing as the poll matures.

Not really "funny". Although one of the less serious negative parts of this will be the annoying "told you so" type stuff from whichever "side" winds up being more correct. Personally, I'm rooting for this being an over reaction as that will mean it's not as bad as feared. We will see. 

The thread will stay open to comments but I closed it for voting as my intent was to get some snapshots. I'll open another one maybe Friday. 

 

[beer 30]

I don't think there are many left from that crowd.  My wife is an infectious disease epidemiologist and was sort of downplaying this early on.  Her sister is an infectious disease physician and was also downplaying it early on.  Both are far more concerned now given how this has evolved.  

Oh there are plenty left. My FB is full up of ‘it’s overhyped media drama’, my Twitter feed is ‘end of the world as we know it’ and this place is probably 50/50.

 

[Joe Bryant]

and this place is probably 50/50.

Can you elaborate what you mean there? This is place is 50%  the "it’s just a cold” crowd? I don't see that at all here.

 

[beer 30]

Can you elaborate what you mean there? This is place is 50%  the "it’s just a cold” crowd? I don't see that at all here.

I only frequent a handful of threads here so my universe is probably much more limited than yours but I’d say there is definitely a contingent in the Official Coronavirus thread and a contingent in the Ran a 10k thread, the two threads I spend a fair amount of time in.

 

[DallasDMac]

Can you elaborate what you mean there? This is place is 50%  the "it’s just a cold” crowd? I don't see that at all here.

I imagine it is like so many things where one side is way more vocal than the other. By that I mean, people that live in or near a location that is being directly affected are going to post a lot and be much more adamant about the severity of what we are seeing. People that live in states that have yet to be affected are much more "Meh, overblown" and are way less likely to be in here voicing their opinion. Therefore, I don't think you are going to get an accurate picture of the national feeling as a whole from such a microcosm as a thread on a message board.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I only frequent a handful of threads here so my universe is probably much more limited than yours but I’d say there is definitely a contingent in the Official Coronavirus thread and a contingent in the Ran a 10k thread, the two threads I spend a fair amount of time in.

Thanks. I guess we just see the threads different if you think half the people here are in the "it's just a cold" camp. 

The poll results in this thread certainly don't reflect that. I do think we need to be careful how we characterize other people on this. 

 

[ChiefD]

Jumping on a plane tomorrow with the family for spring break to Florida. Just going to the beach to my mom's place in Naples.

Should be interesting. We never gave serious thought to cancelling, but we've had a long discussion on safety and being diligent in the airport and plane as far as wiping stuff down and washing hands and such.

I can't say I'm not nervous though. 

 

[mr. furley]

it's important to look at this chart, i'd say. considering this originated in China, and they would be considered maybe not so advanced in terms of health care and concern for the health and welfare of their citizenry, in general. either they have some super team working this and they contained it all on their own... or the virus spread has.... stopped.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

reports of new daily cases peaked Feb 13. and have trailed off to zero. presumably there would be more monitoring, more pressure, more attention to find new cases.. and they've tailed off to zero.  just short off 81k got sick over the course of a couple months and now the virus seems to have stopped spreading there.

it followed the bell curve that someone else in this thread posted. starts slow, picks up pace, peaks and tails off as conditions that favor a viruses viability come to a seasonal close.

is it Chinese state control lying about the numbers? a world conspiracy to quell the panic, while stoking the panic elsewhere?

also, why are doctors who are voicing their opinions being dismissed out of hand here? it seems to mirror this trend of discounting the opinions of teachers regarding education (a hot fad in Wisconsin. teachers are stupid idiots!).  

there's this rush to look only at the terror and panic side. anyone who suggests anything short of "this is the worst thing that has ever happened in human history and we have no precedent" is totally disregarded immediately. if someone says "hey, we've seen something very similar to this... we're not 100% locked in, but this is not a space disease that we can't even identify. wash your hands, don't cough on each other and stay home if your sick" people are lining up to try and destroy everything that person has ever said or done, and dismissing years (decades?) of education and experience.

this #### reminds me of dealing with my kids during a particularly strong summer storm. they come to me scared and ask if everything is going to be ok. particularly my 9 year old. i'll do my best to assure them that everything will be ok. yes, wind and lightning can be scary and dangerous. and, yes, it's possible that a tree will get knocked over... or even there's potential to fall on the house, but we're here to make sure that they're protected and i'll do everything i can to keep them safe.  bad things do happen, but it's not an automatic given that rainstorm = certain maiming. 

meanwhile my mother in law is calling the house every 3 minutes, pumping my wife's fear levels up with breathless reports of tree branches swaying in her yard... she heard from some friend of hers that that woman's daughter's neighbor told her that she heard a house was swept off its foundation and crashed in to a school 30 miles away.... is that going to happen to us, too!???!  

yes, certainly bad things can happen. bad things happen every day. all the time. but, just because bad things are happening doesn't mean they are guaranteed to happen to everyone. that's totally being swept under the rug here. it's amazing to watch in real time.

 

[mr. furley]

who is working from home today?

who hasn't left their house in 2 weeks? hasn't sent their kids to school for 2 weeks? hasn't been outside in public for 2 weeks?

 

[beer 30]

Thanks. I guess we just see the threads different if you think half the people here are in the "it's just a cold" camp. 

The poll results in this thread certainly don't reflect that. I do think we need to be careful how we characterize other people on this. 

So lets look at that. Currently there are 270 folks voting, 149 of which voted 5 or below which is right at 55%. I'd say I'm spot on and I think the numbers are skewing more to 6+ as every day goes by. I'd be interested to see what the initial day 1 poll numbers looked like compared to today. Incidentally I voted 8 on day 1 so you know where my opinion is.

 

[Joe Bryant]

So lets look at that. Currently there are 270 folks voting, 149 of which voted 5 or below which is right at 55%. I'd say I'm spot on and I think the numbers are skewing more to 6+ as every day goes by. I'd be interested to see what the initial day 1 poll numbers looked like compared to today. Incidentally I voted 8 on day 1 so you know where my opinion is.

Yes. Someone who'd say "it's just a cold" would likely rate this on the serious level of about a 1 or 2. Right now, that's about 11% of the people who took the poll. You said it was about 50% that were in the "it's just a cold" crowd. 

Your statement that half the board thinks it's just a cold is exactly why I created this poll. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

also, why are doctors who are voicing their opinions being dismissed out of hand here? it seems to mirror this trend of discounting the opinions of teachers regarding education (a hot fad in Wisconsin. teachers are stupid idiots!).  

To which doctors do you refer? I’ve dismissed non-ID doctors and public health officials, as they aren’t trained to recognize and treat emerging infections.
 

Or are you referring to those who dismiss Andy Fauci and other leaders in the infectious disease community?

 

[beer 30]

Yes. Someone who'd say "it's just a cold" would likely rate this on the serious level of about a 1 or 2. Right now, that's about 11% of the people who took the poll. You said it was about 50% that were in the "it's just a cold" crowd. 

Your statement that half the board thinks it's just a cold is exactly why I created this poll. 

Yes and I'd interpret the poll as anything 5 or below "it's just a cold". My interpretation I guess and I'm happy to agree with your take on it. I sincerely hope people are taking this seriously.

 

[Hawkeye21]

I'm going to take a wild guess that you live somewhere that hasn't yet been directly affected. I bet if you lived in, say, Washington state, her reaction wouldn't have nearly as aloof.

You're right, I live in Iowa where we only have a few cases so far.  Regardless, I know that it's just a virus like any other.  It will affect the elderly and the very young the most.  If any of the rest of us get it we will just get rest, drink a lot of water and let our bodies take care of it.

If you're worried about the hysteria it's causing then I can understand but if you are worried about the virus itself then I think it's an overreaction.

 

[moleculo]

it's important to look at this chart, i'd say. considering this originated in China, and they would be considered maybe not so advanced in terms of health care and concern for the health and welfare of their citizenry, in general. either they have some super team working this and they contained it all on their own... or the virus spread has.... stopped.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

reports of new daily cases peaked Feb 13. and have trailed off to zero. presumably there would be more monitoring, more pressure, more attention to find new cases.. and they've tailed off to zero.  just short off 81k got sick over the course of a couple months and now the virus seems to have stopped spreading there.

it followed the bell curve that someone else in this thread posted. starts slow, picks up pace, peaks and tails off as conditions that favor a viruses viability come to a seasonal close.

is it Chinese state control lying about the numbers? a world conspiracy to quell the panic, while stoking the panic elsewhere?

also, why are doctors who are voicing their opinions being dismissed out of hand here? it seems to mirror this trend of discounting the opinions of teachers regarding education (a hot fad in Wisconsin. teachers are stupid idiots!).  

there's this rush to look only at the terror and panic side. anyone who suggests anything short of "this is the worst thing that has ever happened in human history and we have no precedent" is totally disregarded immediately. if someone says "hey, we've seen something very similar to this... we're not 100% locked in, but this is not a space disease that we can't even identify. wash your hands, don't cough on each other and stay home if your sick" people are lining up to try and destroy everything that person has ever said or done, and dismissing years (decades?) of education and experience.

this #### reminds me of dealing with my kids during a particularly strong summer storm. they come to me scared and ask if everything is going to be ok. particularly my 9 year old. i'll do my best to assure them that everything will be ok. yes, wind and lightning can be scary and dangerous. and, yes, it's possible that a tree will get knocked over... or even there's potential to fall on the house, but we're here to make sure that they're protected and i'll do everything i can to keep them safe.  bad things do happen, but it's not an automatic given that rainstorm = certain maiming. 

meanwhile my mother in law is calling the house every 3 minutes, pumping my wife's fear levels up with breathless reports of tree branches swaying in her yard... she heard from some friend of hers that that woman's daughter's neighbor told her that she heard a house was swept off its foundation and crashed in to a school 30 miles away.... is that going to happen to us, too!???!  

yes, certainly bad things can happen. bad things happen every day. all the time. but, just because bad things are happening doesn't mean they are guaranteed to happen to everyone. that's totally being swept under the rug here. it's amazing to watch in real time.

I discount doctors and nurses becase they deal with colds and flus all day, every day.  They are calloused to it.  And, on a micro-scale, this virus probably isn't a big deal to most folks under 80 who don't have other pre-existing conditions.  

I don't discount epidemiologists.  When I hear someone with a background in epidemiology talk, I listen.  These are the guys who study the spread and know how this gets around.  most of these guys are singing a different tune then your local neighborhood ER nurse.

Also - you talk about how this appears to have calmed down in China - has the virus simply run it's course, or have the extreme, draconian measures they have taken actually been effective?

 

[Hooper31]

School district I work for has closed for the next two days.

Teacher in our middle school was exposed and has a cold.

Good times. 

 

[The_Man]

I work on the Johns Hopkins medical campus - not a clinician or researcher, but work with them every day. The consensus is that it's going to be bad, though not catastrophic, and made much worse by people not taking the proper precautions.

If you're 60+ you should be socially distancing yourself NOW. I am very concerned for my 72-year-old dad who still works in a publicly facing retail environment. He has no ability to know who he's coming in contact with or to distance himself. The smartest colleges are telling their students not to come back after Spring Break - because kids today traverse the world on Spring Break, come in contact with God knows who, and then will bring those exposures back to campus. Those kids will probably be fine, but not the people age 60+ they come in contact with once they're back.

The biggest problem is that so few people take the appropriate steps now when it could make a difference. By the time it's clearly a problem and people get serious about preventing the spread, it will be too late. Hope I'm wrong, but I can tell you that one of the world's elite medical institutions doesn't think it's just like a cold and is already spending a small fortune to prepare.

 

[Doug B]

You're right, I live in Iowa where we only have a few cases so far.  Regardless, I know that it's just a virus like any other.  It will affect the elderly and the very young the most.  If any of the rest of us get it we will just get rest, drink a lot of water and let our bodies take care of it.

Unless you specifically mean "infants", this is not true. Kids -- even toddlers -- have generally been getting infected with COVID and not showing symptoms.

 

[Hawkeye21]

Unless you specifically mean "infants", this is not true. Kids -- even toddlers -- have generally been getting infected with COVID and not showing symptoms.

I was talking about babies and toddlers.

 

[TripItUp]

Not really "funny". Although one of the less serious negative parts of this will be the annoying "told you so" type stuff from whichever "side" winds up being more correct. Personally, I'm rooting for this being an over reaction as that will mean it's not as bad as feared. We will see. 

Fair, that came off a little snarky with the unnecessary use of "funny".  My larger point was that it appears that the messageboard and the country are progressing towards the side of taking the virus more seriously.

 

[Doug B]

I was talking about babies and toddlers.

At least one baby was born to an infected woman in Wuhan, and even that baby -- confirmed to also be infected -- never got symptomatic. Though that's only one isolated case.

 

[The_Man]

At least one baby was born to an infected woman in Wuhan, and even that baby -- confirmed to also be infected -- never got symptomatic. Though that's only one isolated case.

One theory - and it's just a theory - is that the virus receptors for this particular coronavirus don't develop in the lungs until later in life. So young people are positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the formal name of this coronavirus) but don't present with COVID-19 symptoms

 

[Terminalxylem]

You're right, I live in Iowa where we only have a few cases so far.  Regardless, I know that it's just a virus like any other.  It will affect the elderly and the very young the most.  If any of the rest of us get it we will just get rest, drink a lot of water and let our bodies take care of it.

If you're worried about the hysteria it's causing then I can understand but if you are worried about the virus itself then I think it's an overreaction.

All viruses aren’t created equal. HIV is very different from the common cold, and C-19 has important differences from other respiratory viruses. Kids don’t seem to suffer severe infections, while the elderly and those with chronic medical conditions are hospitalized more frequently with pneumonia and respiratory failure. Even if you discount it as just another flu, it will be a tremendous burden to our healthcare system. While worrying about it won’t necessarily change the course, appropriate action can reduce its impact. Under reaction, on the other hand, will result in needless loss of lives and economic hardship. Rest and hydration weren’t enough in China, Korea, Italy, etc., so there’s no reason to believe they will be effective on a population level here.

 

[Hawkeye21]

All viruses aren’t created equal. HIV is very different from the common cold, and C-19 has important differences from other respiratory viruses. Kids don’t seem to suffer severe infections, while the elderly and those with chronic medical conditions are hospitalized more frequently with pneumonia and respiratory failure. Even if you discount it as just another flu, it will be a tremendous burden to our healthcare system. While worrying about it won’t necessarily change the course, appropriate action can reduce its impact. Under reaction, on the other hand, will result in needless loss of lives and economic hardship. Rest and hydration weren’t enough in China, Korea, Italy, etc., so there’s no reason to believe they will be effective on a population level here.

It's going to have some major affects on certain things, I don't disagree with that.  My opinions are more directed towards the people who are freaking out about themselves getting sick or everyone around them getting sick and dying.  Those who are preparing for an apocalyptic type event.  I think some people are going a little overboard with it and I don't think the media is helping. 

 

[Doug B]

One theory - and it's just a theory - is that the virus receptors for this particular coronavirus don't develop in the lungs until later in life. So young people are positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the formal name of this coronavirus) but don't present with COVID-19 symptoms

That theory -- though it will need testing and confirmation -- explains a lot. One of the big things it explains is why whatever keeps kids safe can't readily be ported to adults. Still, maybe study of kids' lungs will help lead to some breakthroughs. Stem-cell treatments, maybe, to help the body repair damaged tissue in the lungs?

 

[Terminalxylem]

It's going to have some major affects on certain things, I don't disagree with that.  My opinions are more directed towards the people who are freaking out about themselves getting sick or everyone around them getting sick and dying.  Those who are preparing for an apocalyptic type event.  I think some people are going a little overboard with it and I don't think the media is helping. 

I’m not sure what constitutes “freaking out” in your opinion, but the CDC recommended all elderly people (over 60) and those with chronic medical conditions take precautions and prepare for extended home stays. Even in Iowa. Maybe not apocalyptic prepping, but an unprecedented request from public health officials, at least in my lifetime.

 

[mr. furley]

Also - you talk about how this appears to have calmed down in China - has the virus simply run it's course, or have the extreme, draconian measures they have taken actually been effective?

seems both. South Korea has also declared it contained there.

rapid, organized response and whatever quarantine measures + natural life cycle of the virus seems to be running its course.

 

[mr. furley]

I discount doctors and nurses becase they deal with colds and flus all day, every day.  They are calloused to it. 

this made me laugh because it's dead freaking on

got a 104 temp, haven't eaten in 3 days, puking from top and bottom... talk to a nurse friend "oh, quit being a whiny baby. you're fine. i had a guy come in bleeding from his eyeballs and **** who complains less than you."

too... shay.

 

[DJackson10]

Well this was in the early stages ( at least regarding my sister-in-law).  Although last night my wife was again arguing that this was all caused by the media and that it was similar to the flu.  Of course when I present the differences, she screamed “I’m going to bed”.    

I'm still in the group that The Chinese Government let this virus get out to control their mass population and protesting in the region. Don't put anything past Governments like China or North Korea on something like this 

 

[DJackson10]

Philly has put their first case of COVID-19. My mom works at CHOP but works at HUP UPENN Hospital. The DR is from the King of Prussia area (Yes the popular big mall here in the region) and was in Egypt recently (I believe it was a business trip). His wife has shown signs and he's not in critical  condition. He was also not feeling well but he has underlying health issues not related to this. He saw patients in a 4 day period 2 from Lower Merion (Where Kobe Bryant went to school) who are both at CHOP now and the school district is now closed. The lead site manager of the office of the DR has been out on leave since Aug and the person who took over has been quarantined with half of the staff. CHOP has asked employees PSRs (Intake coordinators who work the front desks) to go help considering it's short staffed. The Paramedics who got the DR were apparently warned before hand of the potential COVID-19 patient and took proper caution. Within the last 3 hrs a local University West Chester University in West Chester PA (About 30 mins from me and Where Eagles GM Howie Roseman Lives around) has announced remote learning for the rest of spring semester 

 

[DallasDMac]

You're right, I live in Iowa where we only have a few cases so far.  Regardless, I know that it's just a virus like any other.  It will affect the elderly and the very young the most.  If any of the rest of us get it we will just get rest, drink a lot of water and let our bodies take care of it.

If you're worried about the hysteria it's causing then I can understand but if you are worried about the virus itself then I think it's an overreaction.

I and my wife are likely older than you think.

 

[DJackson10]

I'm going to take a wild guess that you live somewhere that hasn't yet been directly affected. I bet if you lived in, say, Washington state, her reaction wouldn't have nearly as aloof.

I work in retail and my physician is in there a lot (She lives in my area) when she sees me she ask the typical questions and such how I'm doing and if I ever need anything call me. Asked her about this and she wasn't as worried as I thought she'd be. She said the main goals are if you are sick stay home come in if you are really sick though. Do the proper procedures of health care and take extra precautions (Basically don't put yourself in a situation you are at risk if you can prevent it) where applied. 

There wasn't an all out panic we're all gonna die from her. SHe's more worried about those being ignorant about this who will go to work sick or be in complete denial of this. 

 

[mr. furley]

am i crazy or does this make anyone else feel slightly less worried than before?

"spreading undetected for weeks"  and only 22 deaths?   we've been led to believe that if this thing isn't checked immediately, tens of thousands will be dead in weeks.

if it was spreading undetected through a major metropolitan area for weeks and only 22 people died... that doesn't seem so ..... terrible?  if it possible that the virus that showed up here is a weaker strain? 

https://theweek.com/speedreads/901405/seattle-lab-uncovered-washingtons-coronavirus-outbreak-only-after-defying-federal-regulators

A Seattle lab uncovered Washington's coronavirus outbreak only after defying federal regulators

A lack of test kits for the new COVID-19 coronavirus is still obscuring the extent of the outbreak in the U.S., but for a critical period in February, there were no functional federal tests and "local officials across the country were left to work blindly as the crisis grew undetected and exponentially," The New York Times reports. The coronavirus has now infected more than 1,000 people in 36 states and Washington, D.C., according to Johns Hopkins University's count.

The first U.S. outbreak was in Washington state, where authorities confirmed the first patient — suffering from respiratory problems after visiting Wuhan, China — only after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made an exception to strict testing criteria. In Seattle, Dr. Helen Chu, an infectious disease expert who was part of an ongoing flu-monitoring effort, the Seattle Flu Study, asked permission to test their trove of collected flu swabs for coronavirus.

State health officials joined Chu in asking the CDC and Food and Drug Administration to waive privacy rules and allow clinical tests in a research lab, citing the threat of significant loss of life. The CDC and FDA said no. "We felt like we were sitting, waiting for the pandemic to emerge," Chu told the Times. "We could help. We couldn't do anything."

They held off for a couple of weeks, but on Feb. 25, Chu and her colleagues "began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval," the Times reports. They found a positive case pretty quickly, and after discussing the ethics, they told state health officials, who confirmed the next day that a teenager who hadn't traveled abroad had COVID-19 — and the virus had likely been spreading undetected throughout the Seattle area for weeks. Later that day, the CDC and FDA told Chu and her colleagues to stop testing, then partially relented, and the lab found several more cases. On Monday night, they were ordered to stop testing again.

"In the days since the teenager's test, the Seattle region has spun into crisis, with dozens of people testing positive and at least 22 dying," the Times notes. "The scientists said they believe that they will find evidence that the virus was infecting people even earlier, and that they could have alerted authorities sooner if they had been allowed to test." Read more about the red tape at The New York Times. Peter Weber

 

[TheIronSheik]

am i crazy or does this make anyone else feel slightly less worried than before?

"spreading undetected for weeks"  and only 22 deaths?   we've been led to believe that if this thing isn't checked immediately, tens of thousands will be dead in weeks.

if it was spreading undetected through a major metropolitan area for weeks and only 22 people died... that doesn't seem so ..... terrible?  if it possible that the virus that showed up here is a weaker strain? 

https://theweek.com/speedreads/901405/seattle-lab-uncovered-washingtons-coronavirus-outbreak-only-after-defying-federal-regulators

A Seattle lab uncovered Washington's coronavirus outbreak only after defying federal regulators

A lack of test kits for the new COVID-19 coronavirus is still obscuring the extent of the outbreak in the U.S., but for a critical period in February, there were no functional federal tests and "local officials across the country were left to work blindly as the crisis grew undetected and exponentially," The New York Times reports. The coronavirus has now infected more than 1,000 people in 36 states and Washington, D.C., according to Johns Hopkins University's count.

The first U.S. outbreak was in Washington state, where authorities confirmed the first patient — suffering from respiratory problems after visiting Wuhan, China — only after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made an exception to strict testing criteria. In Seattle, Dr. Helen Chu, an infectious disease expert who was part of an ongoing flu-monitoring effort, the Seattle Flu Study, asked permission to test their trove of collected flu swabs for coronavirus.

State health officials joined Chu in asking the CDC and Food and Drug Administration to waive privacy rules and allow clinical tests in a research lab, citing the threat of significant loss of life. The CDC and FDA said no. "We felt like we were sitting, waiting for the pandemic to emerge," Chu told the Times. "We could help. We couldn't do anything."

They held off for a couple of weeks, but on Feb. 25, Chu and her colleagues "began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval," the Times reports. They found a positive case pretty quickly, and after discussing the ethics, they told state health officials, who confirmed the next day that a teenager who hadn't traveled abroad had COVID-19 — and the virus had likely been spreading undetected throughout the Seattle area for weeks. Later that day, the CDC and FDA told Chu and her colleagues to stop testing, then partially relented, and the lab found several more cases. On Monday night, they were ordered to stop testing again.

"In the days since the teenager's test, the Seattle region has spun into crisis, with dozens of people testing positive and at least 22 dying," the Times notes. "The scientists said they believe that they will find evidence that the virus was infecting people even earlier, and that they could have alerted authorities sooner if they had been allowed to test." Read more about the red tape at The New York Times. Peter Weber

I've said this for a while.  The death toll is the easy number to figure out.  The infected number is much more difficult.  But over time, we'll learn that a lot more people are infected and the death toll will stay the same, meaning no new reports from previous days.  That means that the mortality rate will continue to drop.  If it turns out that Coronavirus has been in the US for longer than thought, that means it's even better.  Because the mortality rate keeps dropping, nearing normal flu levels.  

The average age of death is 80 years old.  If you're under 60, the mortality rate is slightly higher than the flu.  It's also harder to contract than the flu.  And 80% of people infected may not even show any signs.  It's starting to sound like West Nile disease.  When that came out, people were like, "You could get WN and not even know it.  You could have it for weeks and never have any symptoms."  Well, than that's a stupid disease.  

 

[Sinn Fein]

We are going to need a new poll

 

[mr. furley]

I've said this for a while.  The death toll is the easy number to figure out.  The infected number is much more difficult.  But over time, we'll learn that a lot more people are infected and the death toll will stay the same, meaning no new reports from previous days.  That means that the mortality rate will continue to drop.  If it turns out that Coronavirus has been in the US for longer than thought, that means it's even better.  Because the mortality rate keeps dropping, nearing normal flu levels.  

The average age of death is 80 years old.  If you're under 60, the mortality rate is slightly higher than the flu.  It's also harder to contract than the flu.  And 80% of people infected may not even show any signs.  It's starting to sound like West Nile disease.  When that came out, people were like, "You could get WN and not even know it.  You could have it for weeks and never have any symptoms."  Well, than that's a stupid disease.  

this website seems to have a lot of information - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE

DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases

80+ years old

21.9%

14.8%

70-79 years old

8.0%

60-69 years old

3.6%

50-59 years old

1.3%

40-49 years old

0.4%

30-39 years old

0.2%

20-29 years old

0.2%

10-19 years old

0.2%

0-9 years old

no fatalities

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.

In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.

Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)

Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION

DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases

Cardiovascular disease

13.2%

10.5%

Diabetes

9.2%

7.3%

Chronic respiratory disease

8.0%

6.3%

Hypertension

8.4%

6.0%

Cancer

7.6%

5.6%

no pre-existing conditions

0.9%

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

Getting more serious now as San Francisco has banned gatherings over 1,000 people. That means that people who count on their paychecks from working Warriors games at the Chase center are now going to be losing out on money they need for basic living. The economic impact is going to be massive here in the bay area.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Do they show what the "no pre-existing conditions" and the people under 60 numbers are?  Because that's the Goldilocks number.

 

[mr. furley]

Getting more serious now as San Francisco has banned gatherings over 1,000 people. That means that people who count on their paychecks from working Warriors games at the Chase center are now going to be losing out on money they need for basic living. The economic impact is going to be massive here in the bay area.

those people don't get paid #### anyways 

 

[TheIronSheik]

Getting more serious now as San Francisco has banned gatherings over 1,000 people. That means that people who count on their paychecks from working Warriors games at the Chase center are now going to be losing out on money they need for basic living. The economic impact is going to be massive here in the bay area.

The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself.

I don't doubt this will be a mess, but I don't think the virus will be the bad thing.  It's going to be the unnecessary panic that causes most of the problems.