Could the Bills be the breakout offense of 2014? (1 Viewer)

[MAC_32]

The hope is that with a season under his belt, knowing the system and having a full pro offseason, Manuel is more confident and less afraid to make the more difficult throws without over thinking that.

another problem that has carried over, plays were constantly there in college with his legs and down field but he continued to go to the short intermediary options then eventually mix it in with an OH MY GOD EJ WTF ARE YOU DOING throw.Different coaching staffs, same problems.

 

[spider321]

Grove,

Manuel wasn't that great in college despite being surrounded by NFL talent. Manuel was bad in his first NFL season. Your Bills drafted poorly last year by reaching for a mediocre college QB with the 16th pick.

Theoretically, I COULD work on my own passing weaknesses and become better than Tom Brady one day, but I doubt that's gonna happen.

Also, your Bills drafted poorly again this year by trading next years 1st round pick for Sammy Watkins, when you have a bad QB and a bad team.

I'm sure Cleveland appreciates that top 5 pick.

There's are reasons why the Bills always suck and your team's drafting the last 2 years are perfect examples.

I could look up a bunch of stats of guys with much better college and rookie stats than Manuel, that sucked in the NFL, but I'll let the "BUT DREW BREES!!!" comparisons stand.

I didn't intend this to become a bash the Bills fest, but the rosey tinted glasses that some of you are wearing when you watch Manuel are ridiculous.

I guess we should agree to disagree. Obviously, I don't believe that Manuel has the skill set to ever become a decent starting QB in the NFL.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Interesting piece Sigmond. I do think you forced some things. Foles was drafted in most every league I was in. His numbers in week 16/17 were decent, but not type that won fantasy championships on their own. The offensive explosion in Philly wasn't really unexpected as you suggest. I realize that a good lead in is important from an article standpoint to draw in readers, but you made some reaches here that IMO call into question your thought process.

Foles was drafted in none of the FFPC leagues that I was in. And I was in a lot. I recall his ADP was just outside the first 20 rounds in a 12 team league.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Grove,

Manuel wasn't that great in college despite being surrounded by NFL talent. Manuel was bad in his first NFL season. Your Bills drafted poorly last year by reaching for a mediocre college QB with the 16th pick.

Theoretically, I COULD work on my own passing weaknesses and become better than Tom Brady one day, but I doubt that's gonna happen.

Also, your Bills drafted poorly again this year by trading next years 1st round pick for Sammy Watkins, when you have a bad QB and a bad team.

I'm sure Cleveland appreciates that top 5 pick.

There's are reasons why the Bills always suck and your team's drafting the last 2 years are perfect examples.

I could look up a bunch of stats of guys with much better college and rookie stats than Manuel, that sucked in the NFL, but I'll let the "BUT DREW BREES!!!" comparisons stand.

I didn't intend this to become a bash the Bills fest, but the rosey tinted glasses that some of you are wearing when you watch Manuel are ridiculous.

I guess we should agree to disagree. Obviously, I don't believe that Manuel has the skill set to ever become a decent starting QB in the NFL.

So now instead of actual analysis you're just going to try to attack and antagonize Bills fan? I'm hoping you can be better this because right now you're not contributing much.

 

[spider321]

I have no desire to write a thesis on EJ Manuel. No.

You win.

I'm sure your Bills will win multiple Super Bowls with EJ Manuel.

 

[Ever Present Lurker]

Full disclosure: Bills fan

I thought Manuel was a reach in the first - as did many. That no longer matters. They gave him the keys to the car last year, and they are doing their best to surround him with talent. How can you judge a rookie QB in a tough division with an injured RB, mediocre O-Line and inexperienced/crappy receivers? He had a pretty tough schedule out of the gate. There were moments he looked promising. There were moments he looked like a rookie QB on a bad team.

I said when they drafted him - again, I thought they reached - that no matter when he was drafted, you can't judge this situation for 3 years. This is the offseason before year 2. I expect to see improvements. For one, I'd like him to stay healthy. I expect Watkins to be useful but not game changing this year. I expect Robert Woods to take another step forward as solid WR2/possession receiver. I expect CJ Spiller to be healthy (why not?) and take some pressure off of Manuel, and I'm excited to see what Bryce Brown can do; let's not forget Freddie. I expect the line will play better with some interesting additions via the draft. I expect them to be fast as lightning. I expect them to have some growing pains.

I will judge after year 3. If by the end of 2015 (and that's a ways away), the Bills are not an offense to be feared, then this has failed. Move on to the next Jim Kelly replacement, and consider the Manuel era yet another QB failure. And I certainly leave open the possibility of that being the case. But to act as though you have some football clairvoyance based on a QBs first 10 games, most of which he spent running for his life and looking for anyone to get open? Let's give him 2 more to mature - and let's give that same time frame to Woods, Goodwin and Watkins. Let's see where Bryce Brown fits in (I don't trust CJ to stay beyond this year). And if at the end of year 3 it's all still a ####show... well - them's my Bills!!!!

 

[GroveDiesel]

Here are the college completion percentages for the last 2 years for Brees, Peyton Manning and Manuel (not necessarily in that order);

Player A) 63.9, 60.2

Player B) 65.3, 68.0

Player C) 60.8, 60.4

Seems like they're all at least relatively close to me.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I have no desire to write a thesis on EJ Manuel. No.

You win.

I'm sure your Bills will win multiple Super Bowls with EJ Manuel.

I'm not asking for a thesis, nor am I proclaiming Manuel to be a HOFer. All I'm simply saying is that there is precedent for QBs improving their accuracy and that there are certain things that can make that more or less likely.

All I'm asking you to do is tell me one thing that you think has hurt Manuel's accuracy and why you think it can't be fixed. That should take 2 sentences.

 

[jmo87usc]

Here are the college completion percentages for the last 2 years for Brees, Peyton Manning and Manuel (not necessarily in that order);

Player A) 63.9, 60.2

Player B) 65.3, 68.0

Player C) 60.8, 60.4

Seems like they're all at least relatively close to me.

I don't understand when people make the argument that EJ is inaccurate and was not good in college. 65-68% seems pretty accurate to me. Also the argument that he has no deep ball? I've seen him make 40 yard throws pretty effortlessly and accurate. How deep does he have to throw it? I know Gruden was a pretty big fan and saw some potential for EJ so I'd be willing to bet we haven't seen his best yet. Anyone writing him off already is making a mistake. Gotta give him another season before passing judgement.

 

[Jeff Vader]

When he actually had time, and his grotesquely inexperienced 3rd round picked deep threat was open downfield, I saw EJ loft it fairly effortlessly forty yards right into Goodwin's hands for a TD - more than once last year. But, again, injures hampered his development, a shaky right side of his O-line caused timing problems, and a receiving corps that had ONE veteran receiver on it (who is now #3 on San Fran's depth chart) - all these things really messed with the EJ Experiment, Round One.

I'll reserve judgement for at least another 16 games, thank you.

 

[mjm3773]

Grove,

Manuel wasn't that great in college despite being surrounded by NFL talent. Manuel was bad in his first NFL season. Your Bills drafted poorly last year by reaching for a mediocre college QB with the 16th pick.

This is now multiple times that I have seen you state that Manuel was surrounded by NFL talent.

Because here is the complete list of skill position players drafted from FSU during Manuel's 4 years:

Christian Ponder, qb, 1st round, 2011

Chris Thompson, rb, 5th round, 2013

So a guy who plays the same position as Manuel and a 5th rd running back.

Yes, he did get to play with Kelvin Benjamin, but only for one year, since Benjamin redshirted Manuel's junior year. And even in Manuel's senior year, Benjamin didn't start.

And he also played with Devonta Freeman, who was drafted in the 4th round this year.

So in terms of elite talent, Manuel got a grand total of one season from one WR during his four years at FSU, a season where that WR wasn't even a starter.

That surely qualifies as being "surrounded" by NFL talent.

Note: I'm not sold on Manuel, but don't bury him yet before giving him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[FUBAR]

Grove,

Manuel wasn't that great in college despite being surrounded by NFL talent. Manuel was bad in his first NFL season. Your Bills drafted poorly last year by reaching for a mediocre college QB with the 16th pick.

This is now multiple times that I have seen you state that Manuel was surrounded by NFL talent.

Because here is the complete list of skill position players drafted from FSU during Manuel's 4 years:

Christian Ponder, qb, 1st round, 2011

Chris Thompson, rb, 5th round, 2013

So a guy who plays the same position as Manuel and a 5th rd running back.

Yes, he did get to play with Kelvin Benjamin, but only for one year, since Benjamin redshirted Manuel's junior year. And even in Manuel's senior year, Benjamin didn't start.

And he also played with Devonta Freeman, who was drafted in the 4th round this year.

So in terms of elite talent, Manuel got a grand total of one season from one WR during his four years at FSU, a season where that WR wasn't even a starter.

That surely qualifies as being "surrounded" by NFL talent.

Note: I'm not sold on Manuel, but don't bury him yet before giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Well, the Seminoles do have a lot of NFL talent on defense - and their kicker!

 

[humpback]

Here are the college completion percentages for the last 2 years for Brees, Peyton Manning and Manuel (not necessarily in that order);

Player A) 63.9, 60.2

Player B) 65.3, 68.0

Player C) 60.8, 60.4

Seems like they're all at least relatively close to me.

I don't understand when people make the argument that EJ is inaccurate and was not good in college. 65-68% seems pretty accurate to me. Also the argument that he has no deep ball? I've seen him make 40 yard throws pretty effortlessly and accurate. How deep does he have to throw it?I know Gruden was a pretty big fan and saw some potential for EJ so I'd be willing to bet we haven't seen his best yet. Anyone writing him off already is making a mistake. Gotta give him another season before passing judgement.

Sorry, but this is .

 

[MAC_32]

Here are the college completion percentages for the last 2 years for Brees, Peyton Manning and Manuel (not necessarily in that order);

Player A) 63.9, 60.2

Player B) 65.3, 68.0

Player C) 60.8, 60.4

Seems like they're all at least relatively close to me.

I don't understand when people make the argument that EJ is inaccurate and was not good in college. 65-68% seems pretty accurate to me. Also the argument that he has no deep ball? I've seen him make 40 yard throws pretty effortlessly and accurate. How deep does he have to throw it?I know Gruden was a pretty big fan and saw some potential for EJ so I'd be willing to bet we haven't seen his best yet. Anyone writing him off already is making a mistake. Gotta give him another season before passing judgement.

He had a very high % of simple throws in college. He rarely challenged the defense down field or with his legs, despite having the raw ability to, and when he did bad things often resulted.

 

[PhantomJB]

Just to keep this from continually derailing into an argument about what I did or didn't say, I gave a fantasy prescription at the end of the article:

1) Be open to a Bills quarterback having a fantasy breakout this year - I don’t know if it will be Manuel, Lewis, or both, but if this offense gets off to a hot start at Soldier Field in week 1, grab Manuel to see what happens. Likewise with Lewis if he ends up on the field and starts as hot as he did against the Bengals last year. In deep leagues, you might consider Manuel as a late pick. Add Lewis to your late pick list in 2QB leagues and your watchlist in QB premium/flex leagues.

2) Snap Spiller up in the third - If it wasn’t for Adrian Peterson we’d all be more in awe of Spiller’s 2012 campaign. We saw the elite change of direction and acceleration when he wasn’t ailing last year. The volume and tempo of the Bills offense will create a tremendous fantasy opportunity here.

3) Don’t discount Bills passcatchers not named Watkins - Sammy Watkins has #1 overall hype and the overpriced ADP that comes with it, but others could have sneaky value a la Riley Cooper last year. Woods had a thing going with Manuel at times, and Stevie Johnson’s departure makes Woods the de facto #1 among returning receivers. He’s a good late pick in leagues where you might roster six or seven wideouts. Goodwin came out as an ultra-raw track athlete and could see a leap forward with his first full offseason. If he was dropped in your deep dynasty league by someone who overreacted to Watkins being drafted, rectify that. Likewise with Mike Williams, who could also add value on deep jumpballs a la Cooper. Even Scott Chandler, who surprisingly crept into the top 13 in both yards and receptions last year, could help your team in a pinch and contribute in TE premium leagues.

4) Fred Jackson isn’t dead yet - The energizer bunny of fantasy value proved to be a reliable passcatcher and the team’s primary goalline runner again last year. If you really think Jackson has one foot in the fantasy grave (or if you think Spiller can’t stay healthy), then remember Bryce Brown.

Mr. Bloom, as someone always looking for sleeper candidates from highly respected sources, I did read the article a few times and am not really sure what to make of it to be honest.

The title teases with a strong word like "breakout," yet it is qualified with "could." Then the FF implications/conclusions as noted above are a tad tepid. Spiller already has a redraft ADP in the 3rd round and drafting Woods as a "good late pick in leagues with 6-7 WRs rostered" implies that Woods is in the WR 70-80 range which is nothing really earth-shattering.

My point is not at all to be critical of the article, since it (and the corresponding thread discussion) has been a phenomenal debate to heighten awareness.

Where things fall short IMHO is that by singling out the Bills as possibly "the" breakout candidate, followed by a direct comparison to the Eagles, implies that Buffalo has been chosen over several possible offensive breakout candidates to be the focus.

When in fact there are multiple other offenses that have been left out of the discussion that also "could" be breakout candidates due to similar offensive upgrades:

Vikings (as noted above)

Cardinals (Palmer 2nd year in system, upgraded O-line, add Ginn for outside speed)

Rams (upgraded O-line, Bradford finally healthy?)

Tampa (Evans addition, McCown flashes last year, new coaching)

Ravens (several offensive skill additions, recovery from injury)

The lack of discussion of the merits of the Bills' offense breaking out vs. other potential candidates seems to me where the really valuable discussion lies.

 

[FUBAR]

Here are the college completion percentages for the last 2 years for Brees, Peyton Manning and Manuel (not necessarily in that order);

Player A) 63.9, 60.2

Player B) 65.3, 68.0

Player C) 60.8, 60.4

Seems like they're all at least relatively close to me.

I don't understand when people make the argument that EJ is inaccurate and was not good in college. 65-68% seems pretty accurate to me. Also the argument that he has no deep ball? I've seen him make 40 yard throws pretty effortlessly and accurate. How deep does he have to throw it?I know Gruden was a pretty big fan and saw some potential for EJ so I'd be willing to bet we haven't seen his best yet. Anyone writing him off already is making a mistake. Gotta give him another season before passing judgement.

He had a very high % of simple throws in college. He rarely challenged the defense down field or with his legs, despite having the raw ability to, and when he did bad things often resulted.

FWIW, I expect him to do the same in Buffalo. I do expect him to use his legs, but he ran over 100 times in both his junior and senior years.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Just to keep this from continually derailing into an argument about what I did or didn't say, I gave a fantasy prescription at the end of the article:

1) Be open to a Bills quarterback having a fantasy breakout this year - I don’t know if it will be Manuel, Lewis, or both, but if this offense gets off to a hot start at Soldier Field in week 1, grab Manuel to see what happens. Likewise with Lewis if he ends up on the field and starts as hot as he did against the Bengals last year. In deep leagues, you might consider Manuel as a late pick. Add Lewis to your late pick list in 2QB leagues and your watchlist in QB premium/flex leagues.

2) Snap Spiller up in the third - If it wasn’t for Adrian Peterson we’d all be more in awe of Spiller’s 2012 campaign. We saw the elite change of direction and acceleration when he wasn’t ailing last year. The volume and tempo of the Bills offense will create a tremendous fantasy opportunity here.

3) Don’t discount Bills passcatchers not named Watkins - Sammy Watkins has #1 overall hype and the overpriced ADP that comes with it, but others could have sneaky value a la Riley Cooper last year. Woods had a thing going with Manuel at times, and Stevie Johnson’s departure makes Woods the de facto #1 among returning receivers. He’s a good late pick in leagues where you might roster six or seven wideouts. Goodwin came out as an ultra-raw track athlete and could see a leap forward with his first full offseason. If he was dropped in your deep dynasty league by someone who overreacted to Watkins being drafted, rectify that. Likewise with Mike Williams, who could also add value on deep jumpballs a la Cooper. Even Scott Chandler, who surprisingly crept into the top 13 in both yards and receptions last year, could help your team in a pinch and contribute in TE premium leagues.

4) Fred Jackson isn’t dead yet - The energizer bunny of fantasy value proved to be a reliable passcatcher and the team’s primary goalline runner again last year. If you really think Jackson has one foot in the fantasy grave (or if you think Spiller can’t stay healthy), then remember Bryce Brown.

Mr. Bloom, as someone always looking for sleeper candidates from highly respected sources, I did read the article a few times and am not really sure what to make of it to be honest.

The title teases with a strong word like "breakout," yet it is qualified with "could." Then the FF implications/conclusions as noted above are a tad tepid. Spiller already has a redraft ADP in the 3rd round and drafting Woods as a "good late pick in leagues with 6-7 WRs rostered" implies that Woods is in the WR 70-80 range which is nothing really earth-shattering.

My point is not at all to be critical of the article, since it (and the corresponding thread discussion) has been a phenomenal debate to heighten awareness.

Where things fall short IMHO is that by singling out the Bills as possibly "the" breakout candidate, followed by a direct comparison to the Eagles, implies that Buffalo has been chosen over several possible offensive breakout candidates to be the focus.

When in fact there are multiple other offenses that have been left out of the discussion that also "could" be breakout candidates due to similar offensive upgrades:

Vikings (as noted above)

Cardinals (Palmer 2nd year in system, upgraded O-line, add Ginn for outside speed)

Rams (upgraded O-line, Bradford finally healthy?)

Tampa (Evans addition, McCown flashes last year, new coaching)

Ravens (several offensive skill additions, recovery from injury)

The lack of discussion of the merits of the Bills' offense breaking out vs. other potential candidates seems to me where the really valuable discussion lies.

you're right and i really appreciate the feedback. I'll be writing more "could the ______ be the breakout offense of 2014?" articles in this series. Like you said, the discussion has been fruitful and stimulating, so i look forward to the interaction after future installments

 

[PhantomJB]

Just to keep this from continually derailing into an argument about what I did or didn't say, I gave a fantasy prescription at the end of the article:

1) Be open to a Bills quarterback having a fantasy breakout this year - I don’t know if it will be Manuel, Lewis, or both, but if this offense gets off to a hot start at Soldier Field in week 1, grab Manuel to see what happens. Likewise with Lewis if he ends up on the field and starts as hot as he did against the Bengals last year. In deep leagues, you might consider Manuel as a late pick. Add Lewis to your late pick list in 2QB leagues and your watchlist in QB premium/flex leagues.

2) Snap Spiller up in the third - If it wasn’t for Adrian Peterson we’d all be more in awe of Spiller’s 2012 campaign. We saw the elite change of direction and acceleration when he wasn’t ailing last year. The volume and tempo of the Bills offense will create a tremendous fantasy opportunity here.

3) Don’t discount Bills passcatchers not named Watkins - Sammy Watkins has #1 overall hype and the overpriced ADP that comes with it, but others could have sneaky value a la Riley Cooper last year. Woods had a thing going with Manuel at times, and Stevie Johnson’s departure makes Woods the de facto #1 among returning receivers. He’s a good late pick in leagues where you might roster six or seven wideouts. Goodwin came out as an ultra-raw track athlete and could see a leap forward with his first full offseason. If he was dropped in your deep dynasty league by someone who overreacted to Watkins being drafted, rectify that. Likewise with Mike Williams, who could also add value on deep jumpballs a la Cooper. Even Scott Chandler, who surprisingly crept into the top 13 in both yards and receptions last year, could help your team in a pinch and contribute in TE premium leagues.

4) Fred Jackson isn’t dead yet - The energizer bunny of fantasy value proved to be a reliable passcatcher and the team’s primary goalline runner again last year. If you really think Jackson has one foot in the fantasy grave (or if you think Spiller can’t stay healthy), then remember Bryce Brown.

Mr. Bloom, as someone always looking for sleeper candidates from highly respected sources, I did read the article a few times and am not really sure what to make of it to be honest.

The title teases with a strong word like "breakout," yet it is qualified with "could." Then the FF implications/conclusions as noted above are a tad tepid. Spiller already has a redraft ADP in the 3rd round and drafting Woods as a "good late pick in leagues with 6-7 WRs rostered" implies that Woods is in the WR 70-80 range which is nothing really earth-shattering.

My point is not at all to be critical of the article, since it (and the corresponding thread discussion) has been a phenomenal debate to heighten awareness.

Where things fall short IMHO is that by singling out the Bills as possibly "the" breakout candidate, followed by a direct comparison to the Eagles, implies that Buffalo has been chosen over several possible offensive breakout candidates to be the focus.

When in fact there are multiple other offenses that have been left out of the discussion that also "could" be breakout candidates due to similar offensive upgrades:

Vikings (as noted above)

Cardinals (Palmer 2nd year in system, upgraded O-line, add Ginn for outside speed)

Rams (upgraded O-line, Bradford finally healthy?)

Tampa (Evans addition, McCown flashes last year, new coaching)

Ravens (several offensive skill additions, recovery from injury)

The lack of discussion of the merits of the Bills' offense breaking out vs. other potential candidates seems to me where the really valuable discussion lies.

you're right and i really appreciate the feedback. I'll be writing more "could the ______ be the breakout offense of 2014?" articles in this series. Like you said, the discussion has been fruitful and stimulating, so i look forward to the interaction after future installments

Sweet. I think a series on multiple candidates would be an awesome way to compare and contrast. Appreciate factoring this in.

 

[humpback]

Mr. Bloom, as someone always looking for sleeper candidates from highly respected sources, I did read the article a few times and am not really sure what to make of it to be honest.
The title teases with a strong word like "breakout," yet it is qualified with "could." Then the FF implications/conclusions as noted above are a tad tepid. Spiller already has a redraft ADP in the 3rd round and drafting Woods as a "good late pick in leagues with 6-7 WRs rostered" implies that Woods is in the WR 70-80 range which is nothing really earth-shattering.

My point is not at all to be critical of the article, since it (and the corresponding thread discussion) has been a phenomenal debate to heighten awareness.

Where things fall short IMHO is that by singling out the Bills as possibly "the" breakout candidate, followed by a direct comparison to the Eagles, implies that Buffalo has been chosen over several possible offensive breakout candidates to be the focus.

When in fact there are multiple other offenses that have been left out of the discussion that also "could" be breakout candidates due to similar offensive upgrades:

Vikings (as noted above)

Cardinals (Palmer 2nd year in system, upgraded O-line, add Ginn for outside speed)

Rams (upgraded O-line, Bradford finally healthy?)

Tampa (Evans addition, McCown flashes last year, new coaching)

Ravens (several offensive skill additions, recovery from injury)

The lack of discussion of the merits of the Bills' offense breaking out vs. other potential candidates seems to me where the really valuable discussion lies.

Agreed. I'm not seeing the Eagles/Bills comparisons at all to be honest (circumstances are very different IMO).

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Mr. Bloom, as someone always looking for sleeper candidates from highly respected sources, I did read the article a few times and am not really sure what to make of it to be honest.
The title teases with a strong word like "breakout," yet it is qualified with "could." Then the FF implications/conclusions as noted above are a tad tepid. Spiller already has a redraft ADP in the 3rd round and drafting Woods as a "good late pick in leagues with 6-7 WRs rostered" implies that Woods is in the WR 70-80 range which is nothing really earth-shattering.

My point is not at all to be critical of the article, since it (and the corresponding thread discussion) has been a phenomenal debate to heighten awareness.

Where things fall short IMHO is that by singling out the Bills as possibly "the" breakout candidate, followed by a direct comparison to the Eagles, implies that Buffalo has been chosen over several possible offensive breakout candidates to be the focus.

When in fact there are multiple other offenses that have been left out of the discussion that also "could" be breakout candidates due to similar offensive upgrades:

Vikings (as noted above)

Cardinals (Palmer 2nd year in system, upgraded O-line, add Ginn for outside speed)

Rams (upgraded O-line, Bradford finally healthy?)

Tampa (Evans addition, McCown flashes last year, new coaching)

Ravens (several offensive skill additions, recovery from injury)

The lack of discussion of the merits of the Bills' offense breaking out vs. other potential candidates seems to me where the really valuable discussion lies.

Agreed. I'm not seeing the Eagles/Bills comparisons at all to be honest (circumstances are very different IMO).

- tempo

- commitment to run and using run to set up pass

- high quality #1 RBs

- orgs have sought out specific pieces for their offense in last two years (and in BUF case, that includes QB)

 

[Drop]

Have you seen enough coaches film to comment on the innovative/exploitive nature of the play designs between the two teams? Is all you need an uptempo philosophy to be in this "breakout" candidate discussion or is there something to be said about the quality of blocking scheme and route combination stuff that will make a difference competitively which will make for more clarity in terms of a fantasy ceiling?

 

[MAC_32]

Here are the college completion percentages for the last 2 years for Brees, Peyton Manning and Manuel (not necessarily in that order);

Player A) 63.9, 60.2

Player B) 65.3, 68.0

Player C) 60.8, 60.4

Seems like they're all at least relatively close to me.

I don't understand when people make the argument that EJ is inaccurate and was not good in college. 65-68% seems pretty accurate to me. Also the argument that he has no deep ball? I've seen him make 40 yard throws pretty effortlessly and accurate. How deep does he have to throw it?I know Gruden was a pretty big fan and saw some potential for EJ so I'd be willing to bet we haven't seen his best yet. Anyone writing him off already is making a mistake. Gotta give him another season before passing judgement.

He had a very high % of simple throws in college. He rarely challenged the defense down field or with his legs, despite having the raw ability to, and when he did bad things often resulted.

FWIW, I expect him to do the same in Buffalo. I do expect him to use his legs, but he ran over 100 times in both his junior and senior years.

With Woods and Watkins as his primary weapons they are giving him pieces that do some very good things after catching the ball < 15 yds off the LoS.

 

[humpback]

Mr. Bloom, as someone always looking for sleeper candidates from highly respected sources, I did read the article a few times and am not really sure what to make of it to be honest.
The title teases with a strong word like "breakout," yet it is qualified with "could." Then the FF implications/conclusions as noted above are a tad tepid. Spiller already has a redraft ADP in the 3rd round and drafting Woods as a "good late pick in leagues with 6-7 WRs rostered" implies that Woods is in the WR 70-80 range which is nothing really earth-shattering.

My point is not at all to be critical of the article, since it (and the corresponding thread discussion) has been a phenomenal debate to heighten awareness.

Where things fall short IMHO is that by singling out the Bills as possibly "the" breakout candidate, followed by a direct comparison to the Eagles, implies that Buffalo has been chosen over several possible offensive breakout candidates to be the focus.

When in fact there are multiple other offenses that have been left out of the discussion that also "could" be breakout candidates due to similar offensive upgrades:

Vikings (as noted above)

Cardinals (Palmer 2nd year in system, upgraded O-line, add Ginn for outside speed)

Rams (upgraded O-line, Bradford finally healthy?)

Tampa (Evans addition, McCown flashes last year, new coaching)

Ravens (several offensive skill additions, recovery from injury)

The lack of discussion of the merits of the Bills' offense breaking out vs. other potential candidates seems to me where the really valuable discussion lies.

Agreed. I'm not seeing the Eagles/Bills comparisons at all to be honest (circumstances are very different IMO).

- tempo

- commitment to run and using run to set up pass

- high quality #1 RBs

- orgs have sought out specific pieces for their offense in last two years (and in BUF case, that includes QB)

- Philly actually had a higher "tempo" in 2012 than 2013 with far less fantasy production. Buffalo already ran more plays than Philly last season with far less fantasy production.

- Probably the biggest difference- one had a complete turnover of coaching staff and offensive scheme in the off season. The other did not.

- one has more talent. The other has less.

- one has a terrible defense. The other has a good one.

- one plays in a division with worse defenses and better offenses than the other.

Etc.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Here are the college completion percentages for the last 2 years for Brees, Peyton Manning and Manuel (not necessarily in that order);

Player A) 63.9, 60.2

Player B) 65.3, 68.0

Player C) 60.8, 60.4

Seems like they're all at least relatively close to me.

I don't understand when people make the argument that EJ is inaccurate and was not good in college. 65-68% seems pretty accurate to me. Also the argument that he has no deep ball? I've seen him make 40 yard throws pretty effortlessly and accurate. How deep does he have to throw it?I know Gruden was a pretty big fan and saw some potential for EJ so I'd be willing to bet we haven't seen his best yet. Anyone writing him off already is making a mistake. Gotta give him another season before passing judgement.

He had a very high % of simple throws in college.

His receivers also had a ton of drops, too.

Anyway, I'm not overly optimistic as to him being the long term answer, but I do expect him to improve this year. I really don't understand those who are so sure he won't...

 

[lod01]

Manuel's problem is mostly in planting and stepping into his throws. His QB coach is working hard with him on that this offseason along with some other minor tweaks.

that does not fix his field vision problem.

Experience might help fix his field vision.

It was just as bad last year as it was in college. Common mistake is to assume young players will improve. Truth is most dont. He has not shown any signs he will fix what ails him.

Manuel is one of those guys who needs the WR to be open before he throws it. If the guy is not open, even though Manuel is supposed to throw to a spot, he will not throw and will instead, pull the ball down and start running. These guys always fail. Unfortunately the franchise takes years before they recognize that the guy sucks.

Then you have the opposite in Gomer Manning. He throws to a spot and the only guy that is there is the defender who happily takes it the other way for a TD.

 

[OC Zed]

Manuel's problem is mostly in planting and stepping into his throws. His QB coach is working hard with him on that this offseason along with some other minor tweaks.

that does not fix his field vision problem.

Experience might help fix his field vision.

It was just as bad last year as it was in college. Common mistake is to assume young players will improve. Truth is most dont. He has not shown any signs he will fix what ails him.

Manuel is one of those guys who needs the WR to be open before he throws it. If the guy is not open, even though Manuel is supposed to throw to a spot, he will not throw and will instead, pull the ball down and start running. These guys always fail. Unfortunately the franchise takes years before they recognize that the guy sucks.

Then you have the opposite in Gomer Manning. He throws to a spot and the only guy that is there is the defender who happily takes it the other way for a TD.

To be fair, a lot of quality NFL QBs develop this ability after coming to the NFL. This shouldn't be an indictment on Manuel at this point in his career.

 

[MAC_32]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

 

[ShaHBucks]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

That's pretty harsh. Even I wouldn't have went there

 

[JayJay328]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

 

[Khy]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

Absolutely nothing in common?

Logan Thomas - 6' 6" - 34 1/4" Arm Length - 248 lbs - 10 7/8" hands - 4.61 40yd - 35.5" vert - 118" broad - 7.05 3 Cone - 4.18 20 shuttle

EJ Manuel - 6' 5" - 35" Arm Length - 237 lbs - 10 3/8" hands - 4.65 40yd - 34" vert - 118" broad - 7.08 3 Cone - 4.21 20 shuttle

What exactly are you even attempting to talk about?

 

[Jeff Vader]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

Absolutely nothing in common?

Logan Thomas - 6' 6" - 34 1/4" Arm Length - 248 lbs - 10 7/8" hands - 4.61 40yd - 35.5" vert - 118" broad - 7.05 3 Cone - 4.18 20 shuttle

EJ Manuel - 6' 5" - 35" Arm Length - 237 lbs - 10 3/8" hands - 4.65 40yd - 34" vert - 118" broad - 7.08 3 Cone - 4.21 20 shuttle

What exactly are you even attempting to talk about?

They measure the same. Yep, he nailed it. They're clearly QB clones.

 

[jurb26]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Double points for QB and TE combo?

 

[Khy]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

Absolutely nothing in common?

Logan Thomas - 6' 6" - 34 1/4" Arm Length - 248 lbs - 10 7/8" hands - 4.61 40yd - 35.5" vert - 118" broad - 7.05 3 Cone - 4.18 20 shuttle

EJ Manuel - 6' 5" - 35" Arm Length - 237 lbs - 10 3/8" hands - 4.65 40yd - 34" vert - 118" broad - 7.08 3 Cone - 4.21 20 shuttle

What exactly are you even attempting to talk about?

They measure the same. Yep, he nailed it. They're clearly QB clones.

Pretty sure you're being sarcastic, my point was to say... "absolutely nothing in common" is a completely ridiculous notion. As they are, from a physical standpoint clones of one another. I can't think of the last time I saw two guys match up this closely from a measurables standpoint. It's almost weird. Obviously Thomas is MUCH more raw in his game and a lot more inaccurate but there games really aren't that much different.

 

[MAC_32]

Thomas has a few more WHAT ARE YOU DOING throws and a mechanical flaw that needs fixed so he stops sailing intermediate throws, but they're quite similar. Both smart guys with supposedly everything you want from a work ethic/approach perspective to get better. Only Thomas was properly drafted and Manuel was not.

So, like Manuel? then be consistent and like Thomas too.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

Absolutely nothing in common?

Logan Thomas - 6' 6" - 34 1/4" Arm Length - 248 lbs - 10 7/8" hands - 4.61 40yd - 35.5" vert - 118" broad - 7.05 3 Cone - 4.18 20 shuttle

EJ Manuel - 6' 5" - 35" Arm Length - 237 lbs - 10 3/8" hands - 4.65 40yd - 34" vert - 118" broad - 7.08 3 Cone - 4.21 20 shuttle

What exactly are you even attempting to talk about?

He didn't say that they were not similar based on size or atheltically even. He said "Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common" - one was a first round pick, one was a late round pick, that many evaluators said would need to change positions to have a chance of sticking on an NFL roster.

 

[Khy]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

Absolutely nothing in common?

Logan Thomas - 6' 6" - 34 1/4" Arm Length - 248 lbs - 10 7/8" hands - 4.61 40yd - 35.5" vert - 118" broad - 7.05 3 Cone - 4.18 20 shuttle

EJ Manuel - 6' 5" - 35" Arm Length - 237 lbs - 10 3/8" hands - 4.65 40yd - 34" vert - 118" broad - 7.08 3 Cone - 4.21 20 shuttle

What exactly are you even attempting to talk about?

He didn't say that they were not similar based on size or atheltically even. He said "Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common" - one was a first round pick, one was a late round pick, that many evaluators said would need to change positions to have a chance of sticking on an NFL roster.

Sure, be even from an NFL evaluation standpoint they're games are similar. Thomas is A LOT more raw and has a lot worse accuracy than Manuel ever had. But to state that they have nothing in common is absolutely ridiculous. When you watch tape on both of them they're very similar. The difference is that Thomas' tape looks like what I'd assume Manuel's High School tape would look like.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Sure, be even from an NFL evaluation standpoint they're games are similar. Thomas is A LOT more raw and has a lot worse accuracy than Manuel ever had. But to state that they have nothing in common is absolutely ridiculous. When you watch tape on both of them they're very similar. The difference is that Thomas' tape looks like what I'd assume Manuel's High School tape would look like.

good post

 

[GroveDiesel]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

Absolutely nothing in common?

Logan Thomas - 6' 6" - 34 1/4" Arm Length - 248 lbs - 10 7/8" hands - 4.61 40yd - 35.5" vert - 118" broad - 7.05 3 Cone - 4.18 20 shuttle

EJ Manuel - 6' 5" - 35" Arm Length - 237 lbs - 10 3/8" hands - 4.65 40yd - 34" vert - 118" broad - 7.08 3 Cone - 4.21 20 shuttle

What exactly are you even attempting to talk about?

He didn't say that they were not similar based on size or atheltically even. He said "Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common" - one was a first round pick, one was a late round pick, that many evaluators said would need to change positions to have a chance of sticking on an NFL roster.

Sure, be even from an NFL evaluation standpoint they're games are similar. Thomas is A LOT more raw and has a lot worse accuracy than Manuel ever had. But to state that they have nothing in common is absolutely ridiculous. When you watch tape on both of them they're very similar. The difference is that Thomas' tape looks like what I'd assume Manuel's High School tape would look like.

If Thomas is a "lot" more raw than Manuel, then no, from an NFL evaluation standpoint they are not similar.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

Absolutely nothing in common?

Logan Thomas - 6' 6" - 34 1/4" Arm Length - 248 lbs - 10 7/8" hands - 4.61 40yd - 35.5" vert - 118" broad - 7.05 3 Cone - 4.18 20 shuttle

EJ Manuel - 6' 5" - 35" Arm Length - 237 lbs - 10 3/8" hands - 4.65 40yd - 34" vert - 118" broad - 7.08 3 Cone - 4.21 20 shuttle

What exactly are you even attempting to talk about?

He didn't say that they were not similar based on size or atheltically even. He said "Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common" - one was a first round pick, one was a late round pick, that many evaluators said would need to change positions to have a chance of sticking on an NFL roster.

Sure, be even from an NFL evaluation standpoint they're games are similar. Thomas is A LOT more raw and has a lot worse accuracy than Manuel ever had. But to state that they have nothing in common is absolutely ridiculous. When you watch tape on both of them they're very similar. The difference is that Thomas' tape looks like what I'd assume Manuel's High School tape would look like.

I don't remember many scouts saying Manuel would need to move to TE if he had any hope of playing in the NFL.

 

[Khy]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

Absolutely nothing in common?

Logan Thomas - 6' 6" - 34 1/4" Arm Length - 248 lbs - 10 7/8" hands - 4.61 40yd - 35.5" vert - 118" broad - 7.05 3 Cone - 4.18 20 shuttle

EJ Manuel - 6' 5" - 35" Arm Length - 237 lbs - 10 3/8" hands - 4.65 40yd - 34" vert - 118" broad - 7.08 3 Cone - 4.21 20 shuttle

What exactly are you even attempting to talk about?

He didn't say that they were not similar based on size or atheltically even. He said "Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common" - one was a first round pick, one was a late round pick, that many evaluators said would need to change positions to have a chance of sticking on an NFL roster.

Sure, be even from an NFL evaluation standpoint they're games are similar. Thomas is A LOT more raw and has a lot worse accuracy than Manuel ever had. But to state that they have nothing in common is absolutely ridiculous. When you watch tape on both of them they're very similar. The difference is that Thomas' tape looks like what I'd assume Manuel's High School tape would look like.

I don't remember many scouts saying Manuel would need to move to TE if he had any hope of playing in the NFL.

People keep saying that... it's kind of irrelevant to the conversation though. The ball points on both of these guys coming out. Big, strong raw arm talent, big hands, durable, good runner, quick release. Incredibly inconsistent, has suspect footwork and accuracy.

Again, the point was saying that they have "absolutely nothing in common". That's like saying Peanuts and Peanut Butter have nothing in common. Peanut Butter is just the more refined (Manuel) version of Peanuts (Thomas). Their games are incredibly similar. They are both big strong QBs who use their natural arm talent to make it in college and need a lot of training and refining on how to properly maintain their footwork and vision to be turned into starting NFL caliber QBs.

Manuel is just a lot more refined and even still, he's raw. So imagine how raw Thomas' game is, still that doesn't change the fact that their evaluation is almost the same player. They're two sides of the same coin, the one side just needs a lot more polish to shine.

 

[Yenrub]

Grove,

Manuel wasn't that great in college despite being surrounded by NFL talent. Manuel was bad in his first NFL season. Your Bills drafted poorly last year by reaching for a mediocre college QB with the 16th pick.

This is now multiple times that I have seen you state that Manuel was surrounded by NFL talent.

Because here is the complete list of skill position players drafted from FSU during Manuel's 4 years:

Christian Ponder, qb, 1st round, 2011

Chris Thompson, rb, 5th round, 2013

So a guy who plays the same position as Manuel and a 5th rd running back.

Yes, he did get to play with Kelvin Benjamin, but only for one year, since Benjamin redshirted Manuel's junior year. And even in Manuel's senior year, Benjamin didn't start.

And he also played with Devonta Freeman, who was drafted in the 4th round this year.

So in terms of elite talent, Manuel got a grand total of one season from one WR during his four years at FSU, a season where that WR wasn't even a starter.

That surely qualifies as being "surrounded" by NFL talent.

Note: I'm not sold on Manuel, but don't bury him yet before giving him the benefit of the doubt.

I’m glad you posted this because I was wondering what offensive players from Florida State I was missing. The only guy that kept popping up in my head was Peter Warrick which was a very long time ago

 

[Dr. Octopus]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

Absolutely nothing in common?

Logan Thomas - 6' 6" - 34 1/4" Arm Length - 248 lbs - 10 7/8" hands - 4.61 40yd - 35.5" vert - 118" broad - 7.05 3 Cone - 4.18 20 shuttle

EJ Manuel - 6' 5" - 35" Arm Length - 237 lbs - 10 3/8" hands - 4.65 40yd - 34" vert - 118" broad - 7.08 3 Cone - 4.21 20 shuttle

What exactly are you even attempting to talk about?

He didn't say that they were not similar based on size or atheltically even. He said "Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common" - one was a first round pick, one was a late round pick, that many evaluators said would need to change positions to have a chance of sticking on an NFL roster.

Sure, be even from an NFL evaluation standpoint they're games are similar. Thomas is A LOT more raw and has a lot worse accuracy than Manuel ever had. But to state that they have nothing in common is absolutely ridiculous. When you watch tape on both of them they're very similar. The difference is that Thomas' tape looks like what I'd assume Manuel's High School tape would look like.

I don't remember many scouts saying Manuel would need to move to TE if he had any hope of playing in the NFL.

People keep saying that... it's kind of irrelevant to the conversation though. The ball points on both of these guys coming out. Big, strong raw arm talent, big hands, durable, good runner, quick release. Incredibly inconsistent, has suspect footwork and accuracy.

Again, the point was saying that they have "absolutely nothing in common". That's like saying Peanuts and Peanut Butter have nothing in common. Peanut Butter is just the more refined (Manuel) version of Peanuts (Thomas). Their games are incredibly similar. They are both big strong QBs who use their natural arm talent to make it in college and need a lot of training and refining on how to properly maintain their footwork and vision to be turned into starting NFL caliber QBs.

Manuel is just a lot more refined and even still, he's raw. So imagine how raw Thomas' game is, still that doesn't change the fact that their evaluation is almost the same player. They're two sides of the same coin, the one side just needs a lot more polish to shine.

"Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that."

That was the original statement at issue. I wasn't the one that said it, but I responded after you showed how they were comparable based on their measurables.

It think your still missing the point, because now you are saying the have similar skill sets/style/game (which is debateable in it's own right).

However NFL talent evaluators did not see them as close, as many considered Manual the best QB in his class and he was considered a first or second round pick, Thomas was considered a project at best that many thought could go undrafted or as I said needed to change positions to have any shot at playing in the NFL.

That's a significant gap in their "NFL talent evaluations" - even if they have similar attiributes phsycially and in their style of play.

 

[JayJay328]

All of you EJ Manuel fans better be picking up Logan Thomas too.

Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common. But yeah, go ahead with that.

Absolutely nothing in common?

Logan Thomas - 6' 6" - 34 1/4" Arm Length - 248 lbs - 10 7/8" hands - 4.61 40yd - 35.5" vert - 118" broad - 7.05 3 Cone - 4.18 20 shuttle

EJ Manuel - 6' 5" - 35" Arm Length - 237 lbs - 10 3/8" hands - 4.65 40yd - 34" vert - 118" broad - 7.08 3 Cone - 4.21 20 shuttle

What exactly are you even attempting to talk about?

He didn't say that they were not similar based on size or atheltically even. He said "Based on NFL talent evaluations these two have absolutely nothing in common" - one was a first round pick, one was a late round pick, that many evaluators said would need to change positions to have a chance of sticking on an NFL roster.

Yes, this is exactly my point. Thank you for actually reading my post.

 

[JayJay328]

Oh, and some of you guys need to just stop acting like you are NFL scouts. Stop, just stop. Guys of similar size come out every year, it does not make them similar in talent.

 

[Khy]

Oh, and some of you guys need to just stop acting like you are NFL scouts. Stop, just stop. Guys of similar size come out every year, it does not make them similar in talent.

This is kind of contradictory isn't it? By arguing that people's evaluations are wrong would mean you've made your own evaluations. Which means you're also acting like a scout. In fact the whole point of most of these discussions is scouting players and situations to try and predict fanasy value.

 

[josefrees]

You can't really tell improvement until the actual games start. On Paper if Manuel can stay healthy they do have a lot of potential. I expect marrone to be in the top 5 in plays still because of their offensive philosophy. Marrone is a big no huddle fan. I think a lot of teams are going to really up the up tempo game so there is gonna be some competition for the most plays this year

 

[josefrees]

Also I don't really want to bring nick Foles back up but the way any option offense works is it up to the coach to set up plays to exploit option plays and the players have to make the correct read. Even in a traditional offense it is always a joint effort between the staff and all the players on the field.

 

[Donnybrook]

Its funny how EJ Manuel gets compared to Logan Thomas because they have similar dimensions and measureables. I guess by that logic Andrew Luck and Blaine Gabbert are very similar. http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/andrew-luck?id=2533031 = http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/blaine-gabbert?id=2495441.

 

[MAC_32]

Its funny how EJ Manuel gets compared to Logan Thomas because they have similar dimensions and measureables. I guess by that logic Andrew Luck and Blaine Gabbert are very similar. http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/andrew-luck?id=2533031 = http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/blaine-gabbert?id=2495441.

i compared them because their games are similar and they have similar measurables, not speaking for others though.

 

[Riversco]

The Bills play the Bears week 1 in Chicago, so if you are NOT sold on the Bills offense, you could wait until after they score 50 on Chicago and then sell high.