Donnybrook
Footballguy
How are their games similar?
EJ Manuel had a college career passing percentage of 67% and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt. Logan Thomas had a college career passing percentage of 56% and averaged 7.2 yards per attempt.
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Could the Bills be the breakout offense of 2014? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
EJ Manuel had a college career passing percentage of 67% and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt. Logan Thomas had a college career passing percentage of 56% and averaged 7.2 yards per attempt.
MAC_32
Footballguy
box score scouting is not my game. I prefer to watch players and watch games.
FUBAR
Footballguy
GridironMenace
Footballguy
There are some really ignorant posts in this thread. Sigh.
Khy
Footballguy
I've already stated this multiple times. Their games, you know how they play on field are extremely similar. They're both big body QBs, with cannons for arms who are inaccurate and raw at their position. They also utilize they're running skills a lot to their advantage.
I don't know what people's issues are on this forum about comparing players with similar styles of play. But I feel like every time there's a thread like this people start flipping out whenever you compare one play to another. It's ridiculous, comparing rookies to other players is a great way to get a baseline for them. There's a reason we do it and there's a reason NFL scouts do it. Stop getting all butt hurt about it.
They are very similar, just because Thomas is worse doesn't mean they're not very similar in how they play the game at their positions. This would be like arguing that Blake Bottles and Ben Roethlisberher aren't similar because Ben has a bunch of super bowl rings and Bortles doesn't.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
You really didn't answer the question.MAC_32 said:
FUBAR
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
because I did in other posts already, don't like repeating myself.
FUBAR
Footballguy
FWIW, Thomas was just taken at pick 30 in my 32 team league. Ahead of Jeremy hill, just after clowney as the 5th qb.
By the bills fan.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
The season started with a rookie QB, who was a KNOWN DEVELOPMENT project being forced into an up tempo offense due to the starter getting knocked out with a concussion.
This rookie missed a month of training camp himself, returning to practice just before the season opener. He gets knocked out twice with injuries.
And people expect that he should have played better!??
HA Ha Ha Ha HA Ha HA
Which rookie QB that was similarly graded coming into the NFL would have had better success in this scenario?
I think he can put it together, but last year basically showed nothing one way or the other.
This rookie missed a month of training camp himself, returning to practice just before the season opener. He gets knocked out twice with injuries.
And people expect that he should have played better!??
HA Ha Ha Ha HA Ha HA
Which rookie QB that was similarly graded coming into the NFL would have had better success in this scenario?
I think he can put it together, but last year basically showed nothing one way or the other.
MAC_32
Footballguy
i didn't think he should have played better, I don't think he should have ever been out there. Buffalo's mismanagement is going to send them to the exit door quickly.
The other option was an undrafted rookie. To Buffalo's credit, they made a trade for Lewis during the preseason and stashed him on the practice squad, greatly upgrading the backup situation to Manuel for last year and this year. I am intrigued by Lewis because it seems like from Philly's success last year that running the system true to the concepts and play calls is more important than specific traits in a quarterback like athleticism or a good deep arm or quick release, and Lewis was impressing Hackett pretty much from day one in that department.
MAC_32
Footballguy
that's why I said mismanagement. Thinking Kolb could serve as a bridge was not wise and neither was drafting a project like EJ at pick 16.
Khy
Footballguy
To this day I'm still surprised they didn't take Nassib. Who knows how much better or worse he'd have been. But still surprised me.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Wha? Was it that obvious going into last season that he'd have a career ending concussion? I must have missed that.
Khy
Footballguy
OC Zed
Footballguy
This is bad logic. The Bills spend a first round pick on a QB that they intend to be the long-term answer at the position and you want them to bring in a guy that is going block his development into that role?
The fact is Kolb's resume was perfect for the situation in Buffalo last year... A guy with plenty of starting experience whose shown periods of good play but who isn't anyone that a franchise is willing to bud around long term.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Exactly, Kolb was brought in to start maybe 8 games, while EJ was slowly worked into the fold. This obviously didn't happen, but it was a good plan.This is bad logic. The Bills spend a first round pick on a QB that they intend to be the long-term answer at the position and you want them to bring in a guy that is going block his development into that role?
The fact is Kolb's resume was perfect for the situation in Buffalo last year... A guy with plenty of starting experience whose shown periods of good play but who isn't anyone that a franchise is willing to bud around long term.
MAC_32
Footballguy
EJ shouldn't have been picked in the first round, his types are day three types. Maybe day two if you're really in love with him. Buffalo should have done with him what Jacksonville says they will do with Bortles. Neither is/was ready year one. Neither may pan out but they have a better chance if not rushed onto the field.This is bad logic. The Bills spend a first round pick on a QB that they intend to be the long-term answer at the position and you want them to bring in a guy that is going block his development into that role? The fact is Kolb's resume was perfect for the situation in Buffalo last year... A guy with plenty of starting experience whose shown periods of good play but who isn't anyone that a franchise is willing to bud around long term.
Except this wasn't the "plan"- they were competing to be the opening day starter.Exactly, Kolb was brought in to start maybe 8 games, while EJ was slowly worked into the fold. This obviously didn't happen, but it was a good plan.This is bad logic. The Bills spend a first round pick on a QB that they intend to be the long-term answer at the position and you want them to bring in a guy that is going block his development into that role?
The fact is Kolb's resume was perfect for the situation in Buffalo last year... A guy with plenty of starting experience whose shown periods of good play but who isn't anyone that a franchise is willing to bud around long term.
OC Zed
Footballguy
:eyeroll:EJ shouldn't have been picked in the first round, his types are day three types. Maybe day two if you're really in love with him. Buffalo should have done with him what Jacksonville says they will do with Bortles. Neither is/was ready year one. Neither may pan out but they have a better chance if not rushed onto the field.This is bad logic. The Bills spend a first round pick on a QB that they intend to be the long-term answer at the position and you want them to bring in a guy that is going block his development into that role? The fact is Kolb's resume was perfect for the situation in Buffalo last year... A guy with plenty of starting experience whose shown periods of good play but who isn't anyone that a franchise is willing to bud around long term.
There was a wide consensus that Manuel wouldn't have fallen past mid-2nd round with other teams believed interested in him in the first round.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Yeah, and Dominique Williams is going to be competing with Adrian Peterson in camp, too...Except this wasn't the "plan"- they were competing to be the opening day starter.Exactly, Kolb was brought in to start maybe 8 games, while EJ was slowly worked into the fold. This obviously didn't happen, but it was a good plan.This is bad logic. The Bills spend a first round pick on a QB that they intend to be the long-term answer at the position and you want them to bring in a guy that is going block his development into that role?
The fact is Kolb's resume was perfect for the situation in Buffalo last year... A guy with plenty of starting experience whose shown periods of good play but who isn't anyone that a franchise is willing to bud around long term.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Good post.
This seems like the most reasonable critique of the Manuel = Thomas narrative.
Also, I have yet to hear of a substantive (let alone convincing) explanation for why Manuel had better than a 10% better completion precentage, yet they are purportedly the same player. Just variations of, I don't like him, I saw him, etc.
The below was in the nested quotes.
"The difference is that Thomas' tape looks like what I'd assume Manuel's High School tape would look like."
One thought that comes immediately to mind, I'd feel more comfortable with Manuel's than Thomas' pro projection if Manuel looked like a prep, AS A PREP. If Thomas looks like a prep, as a pro, that sounds ominous and doesn't bode well.
As to the measureables being similar, you could probably find LBs that size, too, it doesn't bear on how Manuel will turn out relative to Thomas. You can have two players the same size. Maybe both will be good, both bad, one good and the other bad, or vice verce. The fact that they are the same size may not have a lot of meaning in that context. Some players succeed at that size, some don't, it obviously involves other variables. The numbers say Manuel was more accurate in college.
If you had two similar size RBs, with similar running style, and one averaged 4 YPC, and the other 3 YPC, it would seem odd to say they are the same. I might look for factors that could explain it, and if I found some, bring them up. But it seems like a counter-intuituive position to lead with, given the contradicting statistical evidence?
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Great analogy. You must have some killer inside information because there is zero evidence that this was their plan.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
If you have conviction on a QB, better too soon than too late.:eyeroll:EJ shouldn't have been picked in the first round, his types are day three types. Maybe day two if you're really in love with him.Buffalo should have done with him what Jacksonville says they will do with Bortles. Neither is/was ready year one. Neither may pan out but they have a better chance if not rushed onto the field.This is bad logic. The Bills spend a first round pick on a QB that they intend to be the long-term answer at the position and you want them to bring in a guy that is going block his development into that role?The fact is Kolb's resume was perfect for the situation in Buffalo last year... A guy with plenty of starting experience whose shown periods of good play but who isn't anyone that a franchise is willing to bud around long term.
There was a wide consensus that Manuel wouldn't have fallen past mid-2nd round with other teams believed interested in him in the first round.
People are entitled to their opinion in saying he wasn't worth a pick in the first, and should have gone much later, but that is a different proposition than where he was going to go, if other teams were interested.
Its not like they took him at 1.8. They flipped that pick and got the 1.16 and an extra second round pick that turned into Kiko Alonso, nearly Defensive Rookie of the Year. In retrospect, Alonso would have been GREAT value at 1.16, and if they had taken Manuel in the second, there probably wouldn't have been the same volume of criticism.
Of course that consideration doesn't bear on whether Manuel will be a good QB.
Whether in college or as a rookie, this would seem to be the best WR weapons he has ever had. Watkins is one of the best WR prospects in the past decade. Williams resembles Chris Henry in some ways (the good and bad), he isn't exactly dog meat if he is focused, I think he has two 10 TD seasons. Woods is a technician as a route runner and will be where he is supposed to be. And they have the Olympic long jumper and fastest player at the 2013 combine as as a situational deep threat. TE isn't the greatest, but Spiller could be a heck of a weapon out of the backfield.
How hard is it to get the ball into Watkins hands on a bubble screen? Roll it to him if you need to (as a commentator once said about getting the ball into Rocket Ismael's hands more).
Another factor is, he has great hands, which should help on occasional errant throws. He can catch away from his frame, low, high, behind him. Landry and Richardson made some of the most spectacular catches I saw last year, but Watkins has suction cups for mitts. He isn't tall, not quite 6'1", but has long arms which partly compensate. Tampa Bay Mike Williams has good size on the outside.Its hard to say if he will take the next step, but it is encouraging they are doing a lot to surround him with weapons and going all in to put him in the best possible position to succeed.
One thing that doesn't come up enough, IMO, but it has been brought up above, is that matters of timing, chemistry and rapport are critically important in the pass game. As was noted, Manuel missed time in the pre-season and regular season. Rookie QBs often struggle in the best of circumstances, even if they play a full slate of 16 games. If he stays healthy, there is little doubt in my mind he improves. It is just a question of how much. And IF he does show improvement, not marginal but appreciable improvement, that gets him over the hump, because BUF will than be compelled to see if he improves more in year three.
I like his chances. In part, because of the weapons they have surrounded him with - I am an even bigger believer in Watkins talent, and I weight that significantly and heavily in Manuel's overall evaluation.
* I'd be more concerned if he was flaky, but it sounds like he is smart, hard working, good leadership traits, other positive intangibles. So much of the game is mental (if two prospects have similar size and athleticism at this level), which is why measuring whether one QB is a 1/16th of an inch taller with an obsessive level of detail can miss the point. I think he is a good bet to put in the time to learn the intricacies of the passing game so it slows down for him, and he can play fast and REACT instead of THINK.
** Serious question.
How often has their been a draft since the merger (or before?) without a first round QB? It would seem some constraints that factor into making this potential event less likely: A) QBs are really important, B) there aren't a lot of them, and C) the combination of A & B means they are hard to get (IND looks like they will have two QBs in 30 years, CLE has had 10 X more, like 20+ QBs, in half the time, 15 years). Within any given class, there may only be 1-2 really good QBs (sometimes more, sometimes none). If you don't get one, no guarantee next year there will be a good one, or that you will be in position to draft one if there is, that could mean waiting another year, and if you haven't had a QB for a few years, that begins to run into multiple year (3-5-?) runs without an important position.
In any given season, there are almost always going to be a few teams willing to pull the trigger at some point in round one (CLE and MIN this year). MAYBE Manuel would have made it out of the first, it is subjective and speculative, but it would be bucking history.
That doesn't mean a team should reach at the position, but if the value lines up on THEIR board, makes sense to me.
Another point is that the relative grade of two prospects can in some ways be situational, context-dependent and literally unanswerable.
What if Manuel had gone to the same school as Carr, and had a scheme with more quick hitting, high percentage passes, and had a higher completion percentage (not necessarily as high as Carr, but higher than what he had in 2012), would he be a "better" prospect? I think there is some variance in how much scouts and the public account for this factor, relative scheme and surrounding talent circumstances between prospects (and even with cognizance and the best of intent, it can be difficult to account for - scouting can be a tricky business, which is why it is polarizing and divisive at times... for myself, I think it would be boring if everybody always said about Manuel, or any other player, yep, you are exactly right, I completely agree). There are uncountable possible branching points and alternate pathways where the fortunes of a player or team, and the way events unfolded could have been different and otherwise than the ultimate shape and form in which they took.
*** QB is an important position. The best and most talented ones like Manning can elevate teammates, the worst like Leaf or Tebow drag them down. But it isn't so cut and dry when prospects aren't in those kind of polar opposite extremes. Yes, a QB can make his teammates better, but that works both ways. Good surrounding talent and a supporting cast can make a QB better, and a bad circumstances can hurt. I like the weapons the Bills have arrayed around Manuel. IMO, if you are a believer in that talent, that could lead to a more favorable projection for Manuel than if that isn't the case.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
...and I disagree with the consensus. He is not worth that pick. This regime put all of their eggs into the Manuel basket. Now they have double downed with Sammy. I think it leads to their early exit. Feel free to feel otherwise, I'm not going to agree just because it's what groupthink says.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Sometimes people think what they think because it is what they think, not because it is groupthink.
Iconoclasts are no less exempt from being wrong.
They may have looked or thought for themselves, but people see and think differently, in part, because this can be complicated (who knew what was going on inside Manning or Leaf's head before the draft?), there are a lot of factors, and people notice and attend to different things.
You are entitled to your opinion, I just don't agree with it. Its your perogative to say he is some other QB because you saw something, and ignore/dismiss the stats that say Manuel was more accurate. As it is for others to not do that.
Iconoclasts are no less exempt from being wrong.
They may have looked or thought for themselves, but people see and think differently, in part, because this can be complicated (who knew what was going on inside Manning or Leaf's head before the draft?), there are a lot of factors, and people notice and attend to different things.
You are entitled to your opinion, I just don't agree with it. Its your perogative to say he is some other QB because you saw something, and ignore/dismiss the stats that say Manuel was more accurate. As it is for others to not do that.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
throwing 70% in college doesn't mean much outside of a vacuum. Many others have done the same and failed at the nfl. It's about identifying who threw at such a rate and can translate to the pros and who was a product of their system. EJ got drafted because he is a height/weight/speed guy. Thought he would get over drafted, despite not being viewed as such in January, and he did. Only expected him to possibly be successful if he say for a while. Nothing he has done has led me to believe he is on another track. I'll throw my darts elsewhere.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I agree with the first part, obviously.
But it doesn't bear on how Manuel = Thomas when there was a 10+ point completion percentage that separated them. If I was looking at two prospects, and one was in the low 60s, and one in the low 50s, and there was more than 10 points between them, all things being equal, to me that tends to point to the first QB being more accurate, and lead to a more favorable projection.
Even this sub-set discussion doesn't address the broader examination of his weapons, intangibles, etc. I get that you don't like him, haven't seen anything from him.
If Manuel suceeds, and we don't know how much later BUF could have got him, hard for me to say he was "overdrafted". If he hits, he was a bargain. Brady Quinn wasn't a "reach", but that is monstrously irrelevant now. If Manziel busts, it won't matter that he was "good value". A partial rookie season by Manuel that was up and down doesn't constitute a deathblow to his NFL projection for me.
But it doesn't bear on how Manuel = Thomas when there was a 10+ point completion percentage that separated them. If I was looking at two prospects, and one was in the low 60s, and one in the low 50s, and there was more than 10 points between them, all things being equal, to me that tends to point to the first QB being more accurate, and lead to a more favorable projection.
Even this sub-set discussion doesn't address the broader examination of his weapons, intangibles, etc. I get that you don't like him, haven't seen anything from him.
If Manuel suceeds, and we don't know how much later BUF could have got him, hard for me to say he was "overdrafted". If he hits, he was a bargain. Brady Quinn wasn't a "reach", but that is monstrously irrelevant now. If Manziel busts, it won't matter that he was "good value". A partial rookie season by Manuel that was up and down doesn't constitute a deathblow to his NFL projection for me.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
If Thomas fails and Manuel is better does that mean will Manuel succeed? No. I think you're looking at this wrong. You should be trying to identify if Manuel will be a successful qb, not if he is or will be better than Thomas.Quinn was a lousy pick at the time too. Glad I wasn't around here when we made that pick. I got typecast as the negative browns fan for blasting the Weeden pick, wonder what I'd have gotten if I had been carrying the negative opinion of Quinn too. Numbers and measurables do not mean a guy will turn into a successful pro. Decision making, accuracy downfield, and mental toughness. Much more important traits.
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Khy
Footballguy
What? Kolb has started barely more than 1 full season in his 8 year career. I wouldn't call it 'plenty' of starting expereince. That's like saying Matt Flynn has plenty of starting experience. Just because people signed him to big deals thinking he was the next big deal at QB doesn't mean he was... the point is he always has been a bad QB. He started 21 games in his career... that isn't really that impressive. He's certainly not that good of a mentor. As for period of good play...This is bad logic. The Bills spend a first round pick on a QB that they intend to be the long-term answer at the position and you want them to bring in a guy that is going block his development into that role?
The fact is Kolb's resume was perfect for the situation in Buffalo last year... A guy with plenty of starting experience whose shown periods of good play but who isn't anyone that a franchise is willing to bud around long term.
Of his 21 starts? He's had 7 games WITHOUT an INT. So he's thrown at least one INT in 2/3rd of his NFL starts. His best game as a starter was when he went 17/24 for 224 yards and 2 TDs w/ no INTs. He really didn't show much potential. He was over signed out of philly and he shouldn't have been.
MAC_32
Footballguy
@McShay13: Clemson must force EJ Manuel downfield. Vs Wake, Manuel completed 76% of throws w/in 10 yds of LOS, but 40% beyond10 yds (9/20/12)
@dpbrugler: QB EJ Manuel is completing 67% of his passes so far, but so many screens and dump offs - he needs to start pushing the ball downfield (9/22/12)
@OptimumScouting: Discussed at length concerns w/ EJ Manuel: http://t.co/w6kWp3xp - Cam upside, but severely limited by release/passing stiffness #FloridaSt (9/24/12)
@realshaunking: What's so frustrating about ej manuel is he doesn't have to win games, just get guys the ball accurately they will do the rest! (9/27/12)
@JayErictronica: I like EJ Manuel as a developmental QB, but like @alfiebcc pointed out, and Gabbert have a lot of the same problems. Esp w/pocket awr. (9/30/12)
@ShanePHallam: And that is why EJ Manuel isn't a great #NFLDraft prospect. Back foot, eyes down, inaccurate (11/22/12)
@RobRang: EJ Manuel's lack of improvement reading defenses is precisely why his stock has consistently slid since yr began. Inexcusable interception. (11/30/12)
@TMeltonScouting: Holly Rowe: "What are you doing defensively to confuse EJ Manuel?"
Muschamp thought bubble: "Dropping into coverage?" (11/30/12)
@Dumonjic_Alen: Has EJ Manuel made any strides as a passer since he took over at FSU? Sometimes it seems like he hasn't. (11/30/12)
@TomahawkNation: EJ Manuel did this thing where he didn't take a sack and instead like left the pocket. Trying to confirm. (12/1/12)
@davidpollack47: Still amazed that EJ Manuel with all of his physical gifts hasn't turned into a better player. Puzzling (1/1/13)
@NFLosophy: Why you don't trust practice over film: EJ Manuel looks really good so far. I know better. (1/21/13)
@TomahawkNation: EJ Manuel is going to get drafted higher than he should and get paid. He'll impress in practice enough and physically looks the part. (1/21/13)
@Jacobs71: 7. EJ Manuel- A project. Best athlete/ runner in the draft. Needs a lot of mechanical work to fix poor habits. Huge upside if developed. (1/24/13)
@nfldraftscout: That's what EJ Manuel will do when he's good. Problem is the inconsistency in ball placement and timing. (1/25/13)
@nfldraftscout: The team that drafts EJ Manuel will be drafting potential, not immediate production. Where he ends up will be huge for long-term success (3/7/13)
@MoveTheSticks: Gave EJ Manuel a 3rd rd grade. Needs time to develop. Love his size but ? his pocket movement/field awareness. Liked J. Freeman better (3/21/13)
@MockingTheDraft: Jon Gruden on EJ Manuel's ball security "What do you think this is, the NBA All-Star game?" (4/5/13)
@NFLosophy: Now watching EJ Manuel Gruden Camp. EJ just said 1 of his strengths is making good decisions. Had to rewind to make sure I heard it right (4/11/13)
Five months of fluff
@RapSheet: Tough to be EJ Manuel vs Rex Ryan's defense. Rex throws veteran QBs into fits. Worse for rookies. Looks like EJ isn't sure what he's seeing (9/22/13)
@TDESPN: Ball in air 21+ yards downfield Aaron Rodgers 9/16 & Geno Smith: 9/17. Notable QBs w/ 1 comp: Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Alex Smith& EJ Manuel (9/29/13)
Injured
@SigmundBloom: EJ Manuel looks worse than last week, which defies laws of physics (12/15/13
Injured again
@mikerodak: Outside the final four minutes of each half, EJ Manuel had a 37.0 QBR (32nd in NFL), 6.54 yards per attempt (34th), and 56.3 comp. % (36th) (1/5/14)
@JayErictronica: Really tho, what happens if you swapped EJ Manuel and Logan Thomas' teams in college? (1/12/14)
@nfldraftscout: @SDG2635 Don't tell anyone I said this, but I see a lot of EJ Manuel to Logan Thomas. They're graded pretty similarly for me after review (3/3/13)
@ProFootballTalk: Casserly claims EJ Manuel would be the No. 8 QB in this draft class http://t.co/fsEnC7wTYZ (3/5/14)
Seems like a good stopping point. Fun exercise.
@dpbrugler: QB EJ Manuel is completing 67% of his passes so far, but so many screens and dump offs - he needs to start pushing the ball downfield (9/22/12)
@OptimumScouting: Discussed at length concerns w/ EJ Manuel: http://t.co/w6kWp3xp - Cam upside, but severely limited by release/passing stiffness #FloridaSt (9/24/12)
@realshaunking: What's so frustrating about ej manuel is he doesn't have to win games, just get guys the ball accurately they will do the rest! (9/27/12)
@JayErictronica: I like EJ Manuel as a developmental QB, but like @alfiebcc pointed out, and Gabbert have a lot of the same problems. Esp w/pocket awr. (9/30/12)
@ShanePHallam: And that is why EJ Manuel isn't a great #NFLDraft prospect. Back foot, eyes down, inaccurate (11/22/12)
@RobRang: EJ Manuel's lack of improvement reading defenses is precisely why his stock has consistently slid since yr began. Inexcusable interception. (11/30/12)
@TMeltonScouting: Holly Rowe: "What are you doing defensively to confuse EJ Manuel?"
Muschamp thought bubble: "Dropping into coverage?" (11/30/12)
@Dumonjic_Alen: Has EJ Manuel made any strides as a passer since he took over at FSU? Sometimes it seems like he hasn't. (11/30/12)
@TomahawkNation: EJ Manuel did this thing where he didn't take a sack and instead like left the pocket. Trying to confirm. (12/1/12)
@davidpollack47: Still amazed that EJ Manuel with all of his physical gifts hasn't turned into a better player. Puzzling (1/1/13)
@NFLosophy: Why you don't trust practice over film: EJ Manuel looks really good so far. I know better. (1/21/13)
@TomahawkNation: EJ Manuel is going to get drafted higher than he should and get paid. He'll impress in practice enough and physically looks the part. (1/21/13)
@Jacobs71: 7. EJ Manuel- A project. Best athlete/ runner in the draft. Needs a lot of mechanical work to fix poor habits. Huge upside if developed. (1/24/13)
@nfldraftscout: That's what EJ Manuel will do when he's good. Problem is the inconsistency in ball placement and timing. (1/25/13)
@nfldraftscout: The team that drafts EJ Manuel will be drafting potential, not immediate production. Where he ends up will be huge for long-term success (3/7/13)
@MoveTheSticks: Gave EJ Manuel a 3rd rd grade. Needs time to develop. Love his size but ? his pocket movement/field awareness. Liked J. Freeman better (3/21/13)
@MockingTheDraft: Jon Gruden on EJ Manuel's ball security "What do you think this is, the NBA All-Star game?" (4/5/13)
@NFLosophy: Now watching EJ Manuel Gruden Camp. EJ just said 1 of his strengths is making good decisions. Had to rewind to make sure I heard it right (4/11/13)
Five months of fluff
@RapSheet: Tough to be EJ Manuel vs Rex Ryan's defense. Rex throws veteran QBs into fits. Worse for rookies. Looks like EJ isn't sure what he's seeing (9/22/13)
@TDESPN: Ball in air 21+ yards downfield Aaron Rodgers 9/16 & Geno Smith: 9/17. Notable QBs w/ 1 comp: Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Alex Smith& EJ Manuel (9/29/13)
Injured
@SigmundBloom: EJ Manuel looks worse than last week, which defies laws of physics (12/15/13
Injured again
@mikerodak: Outside the final four minutes of each half, EJ Manuel had a 37.0 QBR (32nd in NFL), 6.54 yards per attempt (34th), and 56.3 comp. % (36th) (1/5/14)
@JayErictronica: Really tho, what happens if you swapped EJ Manuel and Logan Thomas' teams in college? (1/12/14)
@nfldraftscout: @SDG2635 Don't tell anyone I said this, but I see a lot of EJ Manuel to Logan Thomas. They're graded pretty similarly for me after review (3/3/13)
@ProFootballTalk: Casserly claims EJ Manuel would be the No. 8 QB in this draft class http://t.co/fsEnC7wTYZ (3/5/14)
Seems like a good stopping point. Fun exercise.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
It increases the chance on a relative basis. Collapsing real differences and saying two different prospects are the same loses sight of that, which was one of the point being discussed. Its fine to say their comparison isn't important or is looking at it the wrong way. But it is also a good exit strategy to not explain or have the discussion about how two QBs that were said to be the same, aren't the same.
I think you brought up Thomas (does that mean you are looking at it wrong?
), I was responding to some of the comments spawned by that "comp".They could bear on his accuracy, or lack thereof, so if it is an ill-chosen comp, than that is important to scrutinize. Maybe comps that have similar, and not worse accuracy would be a start. No doubt you could find QBs that succeeded and failed and everywhere in between, from within a wide range of completion percentage parameters.
I have identified some other reasons, they just haven't been acknowledged in some cases (weapons, intangibles, etc.).
Sometimes numbers and measureables are significant, sometimes they aren't, I don't think you are saying they never are important. A QB in the 60s with 10+ points better completion percentage over another QB in the 50s tells me the first QB is more accurate. To me, 60% is kind of a bare minimum threshold, 50% is pretty bad. Thats why I found it puzzling and a headscratcher that there were vehement attempts (not necessarily by you) to collapse differences and make the case two different things are the same.
If scouts had a handle on what QBs had better decision making and more mental toughness, there would be a lot less bad picks, and a lot more good ones. I haven't seen anything to suggest he is incapable of making better decisions with reps and experience, many rookies struggle, even ones that don't miss time, or to suggest he doesn't have requisite mental toughness.
To use one example, I don't think what you are calling decision making is one monolithic or global thing, it involves a lot of perceptual, congnitive and motor functions. Some of which can be improved. If he knows where every player on the field is going to be, and didn't last year, that could lead to better "decision making". If he gets the benefit of OL improvenment and has more time, that could also lead to better decision making. If Watkins trucks a DB and scores an 80 yard TD that Stevie Johnson would have been tackled on, it will look like a good decision.
It sounds like he has the football character, work ethic and intangibles to put in the time where he will be in a better position to start making better decisions. If Watkins runs down passes that Johnson missed, or Mike Williams skies for a pass Woods might have missed, Manuel will have better "downfield accuracy".
Quinn wasn't a reach, he was a bad pick. If Manuel works out, he was a bargain. I didn't understand Weedon, by the time the team around him was going to be good enough for his presence to be relevant it was going to be time to retire.
MAC_32
Footballguy
He has the right character, it's why Buffalo fell for him. Good practice player too.They believe he can be better. Problem is so did Florida state and he did not get better during his time there, more of the same last year. He's a guy you want to root for, but you can't get past his play. It's the same now as it's always been. And he claims this offense is actually easier than Jimbo Fishers bare bones offense. That one was an eye opener, actually forgot about it until I went through that exercise above. Not good.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I like how you can contradict yourself and that is OK in your world.
I have my doubts whether Manuel will be successful but you are adamant that he will be failure. Are you are always so sure of yourself?
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't think I have said at any point he will be a failure. I think how Buffalo has managed him is putting him in a worse position than if they had been more patient with him. May have been moot anyway, but a better chance? Yes. I don't know why you expect me to be anything but negative about a qb that has been a lot more bad than good every time I have watched him at both levels though.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
Makes an attempt to weigh the positives and negatives. Neither a fanboy/cheerleader perspective one-sidely extolling his virtues or a hatchet job compendium of only his flaws. Sounds like there are some positives he can build on, and some things that may not necessarily get a lot better.
http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-re-watch/2013/12/27/5240096/ej-manuel-scouting-report-analysis-pocket-play-accuracy
I don't have a dog in the race, and am semi-interested/disinterested, other than having Watkins and Spiller in separate leagues. If he proves capable of improvement, I hope he gets the opportunity, if he gets it and faceplants (which I'm not expecting, more like some form of incremental improvement), I want him gone, to put it bluntly.
It sounds like he injured his knee on three separate occasions (same or different knee?) last season, including the pre-season. Not sure I'd want him running a lot given that.
Some of the mechanics stuff sounds fixable (not a given, but if he works at it, possible - like getting his feet set, a typical issue for young QBs), with instincts, to a degree, there are limits to how much they can be improved. Too early to write him off, IMO.
Makes an attempt to weigh the positives and negatives. Neither a fanboy/cheerleader perspective one-sidely extolling his virtues or a hatchet job compendium of only his flaws. Sounds like there are some positives he can build on, and some things that may not necessarily get a lot better.
http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-re-watch/2013/12/27/5240096/ej-manuel-scouting-report-analysis-pocket-play-accuracy
I don't have a dog in the race, and am semi-interested/disinterested, other than having Watkins and Spiller in separate leagues. If he proves capable of improvement, I hope he gets the opportunity, if he gets it and faceplants (which I'm not expecting, more like some form of incremental improvement), I want him gone, to put it bluntly.
It sounds like he injured his knee on three separate occasions (same or different knee?) last season, including the pre-season. Not sure I'd want him running a lot given that.
Some of the mechanics stuff sounds fixable (not a given, but if he works at it, possible - like getting his feet set, a typical issue for young QBs), with instincts, to a degree, there are limits to how much they can be improved. Too early to write him off, IMO.
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why does this matter now? the pick was made. where he was drafted is completely irrelevant when evaluating his prospects for the 2014 season and beyond.MAC_32 said:
this thread has been derailed by a bunch of irrelevant arguments imo.
if you didn't like this pick, fine. if you don't think he has any chance of ever improving into a viable or good NFL starting QB based on what you've seen from him thus far, fine. you're not alone in those opinions. Young QBs have a high bust rate so it wouldn't really be a huge surprise if he doesn't work out.
But the jury is clearly still out. It's entirely possible that he could be better than you or most others expect him to be. It happens all the time with NFL players. Sometimes players do become better pros than college players so it seems silly to write him off because he underwhelmed at FSU.
I thought he was rushed into things last year as well, but he didn't seem lost. I think the coaches tried to protect him too much, and he was far too cautious at times while Thad Lewis came in and was much more confident/aggressive in his willingness and ability to both throw downfield and pick up yards with his legs. Those things seem like they will improve as EJ gets more playing time in the system and more confidence. There is a lot of surrounding talent in place now, and a coaching staff that might be able to help get the most out of a young QB with his tools.
I don't share Bloom's optimism given how much youth will be relied on and how disappointing Spiller was in 2013, but I do think the Bills offense is certainly capable of taking another incremental improvement this year.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
it matters if you don't think the player was any good and showed no reason for that to change. Gotta have a baseline. Biggest mistake players often make is assuming young players will improve. In the end, most don't. Every fanbase is optimistic right now, but truth is a third will suck and their leadership will probably be fired. That matters in our game.
It really doesn't matter. He's the starter and the franchise believes in him. They are making the right moves to help him succeed IMO. If his flaws are not fixable, I think he can still be an average starter. He doesn't have to be great, especially in year two.
Tried to send you a PM. System said you cant accept new messages. Get back to me if you can. D.
Hey Sig,
yes, the Bills could be that breakout offense in 2014. But if I had to guess which one of the teams from that division will take positive steps forward in leaps and bounds....it's the Dolphins. Namely for one reason alone...new OC Bill Lazor.
yes, the Bills could be that breakout offense in 2014. But if I had to guess which one of the teams from that division will take positive steps forward in leaps and bounds....it's the Dolphins. Namely for one reason alone...new OC Bill Lazor.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I think the Bills are a breakout offense in 2015. Pieces are getting lined up but I don't know if they can gel enough with so many young parts. Robert Woods and Bryce Brown are my targets.
Jeff Vader
Footballguy
Maybe the second half of 2014, but I agree with this more or less. Some members will put up good numbers, but the offense won't turn into the K-Gun Part Deux in 2014.
Outside Spiller, Woods is the best fantasy target, a real value in redraft leagues. I'm betting many stay away because of an unproven EJ and the presence of Watkins, but EJ and Woods developed some nice chemistry last year and Woods more than proved he could play a solid #2 WR role in the NFL. I expect somewhere around 80 recs, 800-1000 yards and 8 TDs. Solid PPR numbers week in and week out as EJ uses him as a security blanket early on. Draft him late as a high end WR#3.
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