From the Rocky Mountain news....
Krieger: Plummer better get going
The countdown begins.
Good Jake returns Thanksgiving night in Kansas City or rookie Jay Cutler becomes the Broncos starting quarterback 10 days later at home against Seattle.
Granted, it's a guess, but it's an educated guess. Let's look at the evidence and see if you agree, starting with the raw numbers.
This is not last year's Jake.
The Jake to whom Mike Shanahan became accustomed over the previous three seasons carried a passer rating of 88.1 into this season, best in Broncos history. This season, he has a passer rating of 69.7.
Last year, Plummer's rating of 90.2 ranked seventh in the NFL. This year, he ranks 29th.
In other words, a month from his 32nd birthday, Jake has gone backward in a big way. Why?
Two reasons: Opponents have adjusted. Jake has not.
By and large, opponents now take away the quarterback keeper. On defense, that requires people staying home on the edges to play the bootleg. In turn, that leaves them vulnerable in the middle.
This is why the Chargers gave up so many big chunks of yardage up the middle to the Broncos' ever-changing cast of running backs Sunday night. It was a war of attrition. The Broncos thought if they got enough big gainers up the middle, the Chargers would have to adjust, bringing help inside and opening up the quarterback keeper, which is Jake's strength.
The Chargers decided to take these punches up the gut and try to outscore the Broncos and ultimately force them out of their ground game. The Chargers won this game within the game. It's hard to get 35 points on the ground.
Jake can make defenses pay for this adjustment by dropping back in the traditional way and hitting targets down the middle of the field. Whether it is focus or confidence or nerves, his accuracy hasn't been adequate to the task.
The fact is, and there's no polite way to say this, Jake just doesn't work that hard. When you hear Shanahan marvel periodically at his week around Peyton Manning at the Pro Bowl last winter, it is clearly Manning's obsession with the game he covets.
Jake could spend day and night studying game tape and working with his receivers to sharpen the passing game. Instead, he looks forward to his day off.
Ask Jake almost any question a thoughtful quarterback could answer and Jake will tell you he doesn't think about that stuff, he just plays. After 3 1/2 years, the Broncos are ready for a quarterback who thinks a little bit.
Mike Shanahan will not quit on the season.
I first met Shanahan 22 years ago when Dan Reeves hired him as a young offensive assistant. I don't pretend to be his closest confidante, but I can tell you this: He has not given up on the season, nor will he until arithmetic makes him.
Shanahan often says 10 teams have a realistic chance every year of getting hot at the right time and going to the Super Bowl. He believes the Broncos are one this year. His job is to give them their best chance to do it.
He was not going to make a change at quarterback early in the season, when he - and more important, his team - felt Jake deserved a chance to find his footing. But we are now in the second half of the season. Jake's numbers remain dreadful.
Shanahan is not particularly confident of a rookie's ability to command an NFL playbook, particularly the Broncos playbook. This season, only five quarterbacks have passer ratings lower than Plummer's. Two of them are Vince Young and Matt Leinart, Cutler's 2006 draft classmates.
Inserting a rookie, clearly, does not guarantee improvement. But Shanahan has benched a starting tackle, running back and tight end in recent days to shake up his offense. He will not hesitate to bench a quarterback once he likes his chances better with somebody else.
A quarterback can make a big difference.
Exhibits A and B this season are Tony Romo in Dallas and Philip Rivers in San Diego, quarterbacks without previous NFL experience who currently rank second and third in the league, just behind Manning.
The difference is Romo has been around the Cowboys since 2003 and Rivers around the Chargers since 2004. Cutler hasn't had that time to learn.
He's had half a season and precious few practice repetitions.
Moreover, Cutler is not exactly risk-free. The scouting report says he has so much confidence in his arm he will try to fit balls into places they will not fit. In the NFL, that's a dangerous inclination.
Shanahan believes a young quarterback needs two years to be ready for command of an NFL team. He would prefer that Plummer play as well as he did last year and let Cutler learn, as Rivers did behind Drew Brees.
But if Plummer looks as shaky in Kansas City as he did Sunday, it will be time to make a change. Cutler would have 10 days to prepare for his first start, which is as good as it gets at this point in the season.
And the Broncos would still have a chance to make a run, on a prayer and a rocket arm.