Unless you believe that by picking the wrong one you will be worse off. But, of course, if you believe that, you'd have to believe that there is a right one, and you'd be back to square one of deciding which one to pick.
But pragmatically, it could easily be -EV to worship a god. There are many more false gods than true gods, most likely.I had this exchange on the twoplustwo forum:
Other person: If the athiest is right, the persons beliefs are irrelivent and they will rot no matter what.
But if the religious persons belief is correct the advantage of keeping that belief would be huge. (wouldnt it be something like having to catch two to a flush to win, but no one made you pay for it. Your odds of winning may be small, but why would you fold?)
Me: To make your backdoor-flush-draw analogy applicable, there'd have to be thousands of different types of draws (as there thousands of religions), and part of the problem in deciding which one to draw to, or even whether to draw at all, is that there's no good evidence about what hands rank higher than others.
For example, a folded hand might actually beat a flush. We don't know. Or maybe a spade flush is harmless, but hitting a diamond flush sends you to a worse Hell than folding would have.
It reminds one of this marvelous quote from Neil Gaiman's and Terry Pratchett's
Good Omens:
God does not play dice with the universe; He plays an ineffable game of His own devising, which might be compared, from the perspective of the players (i.e., everybody), to being involved in an obscure and complex version of poker in a pitch-dark room, with blank cards, for infinite stakes, with a Dealer who won't tell you the rules, and who smiles all the time.
Or to discard the poker analogy and put things in simpler terms, your argument applies equally well to Quitzalcoatl as it does to Yahweh -- and to Baal, Odin, Jupiter, U-dimmer-an-kia, Ashtoreth, and to thousands of other gods.
Are you going to worship all of them -- just in case? See, infinite pot odds do you no good if there are infinite draws out there and you don't know which one(s) beat a folded hand, if any.