Josh the FunkDOC
Footballguy
I definitely like Losman as a sleeper backup QB next year, especially if they can get another actual NFL receiver to go with Evans. His improvement in his 2nd year as the starter has been solid. However, his long-term job security isn't exactly the greatest, as I could see this team drafting another QB to develop within the next couple years.
As a Browns homer, I am increasingly losing faith in Frye. He just has not improved this year at all, which is a very bad sign going forward. Should be at the bottom of this list.
Gradkowski has not been very good this year, either. I think it is very telling that the Bucs want to sign Simms for 2 more years. Should not even be on the list since he won't start next year.
Leinart is definitely a nice one as long as they can keep those WRs. In general, I tend to like guys whose main weakness is arm strength; that is BY FAR the most overrated quality in an NFL quarterback.
Still not 100% sold on Romo, just seems like too much too soon. If he keeps it up for the rest of the year, then I'll buy it. Remember, also, his WRs are very good but very old; Patrick Crayton looks like a nice prospect, but who else?
I would put Rivers #1 here; as mentioned, very low risk, plus LDT won't last forever.
People are underrating Roethlisberger. For one thing, this has been his best fantasy season even with all the INTs; with all the stuff going on around him this year, and his performance over his first 2 seasons, I expect that INT total to decrease in following seasons. Additionally, Cowher may be a goner after this year, and the team lacks a quality big RB...so in the future, I don't see the Steelers remaining as committed to the run as they've been with Cowher & Bettis. Heck, they haven't been that committed to the run this year!
We don't have a whole lot to work with re: Cutler, but what we do know is mostly positive. That offense seems to yield good but not great fantasy QBs...but then, they haven't had anybody as talented as Cutler since you-know-who.
Vince Young, like all running QBs, is inherently high-risk. FWIW, I think he'll be better than Vick at least, as he seems willing to examine his weaknesses and work on them...heck, according to Footballoutsiders, Young has been a better passer than Vick this year! Past that, it's hard to say; he may have the highest ceiling of anybody here, but major injuries are always a concern with players like this. His progress thus far with a terrible supporting cast is encouraging, as that team has nowhere to go but up.
Count me in the anti-Eli camp. He's losing perhaps the best pass-catching RB in the league after this year, and his only legit WR is a flake. Also, the 3rd year of play often tends to be the deciding year for QBs, the year when you figure out exactly what you've got. There haven't been any freaky extenuating circumstances in Eli's 3rd year like there have been for Roethlisberger, so this is bad news. You can make the Aaron Brooks argument for him, but Aaron Brooks eventually got canned...
I like Alex Smith more than most. People forget, he is still younger than most rookies! In baseball, a 20-year-old who hits .275 with 15 HRs is a better long-term bet than a 25-year-old hitting .300/25; I would think the same thing applies in football, so his upside may well be greater than commonly believed. His current WRs are pretty darned weak as well.
So with all this, I guess my list would look something like:
1. Rivers
2. Leinart
3. Young
4. Roethlisberger
5. Cutler
6. Smith
7. Romo
8. Eli
9. Losman
10. Frye
Rivers & Leinart would be my definite top 2. VY/Ben/Cutler/Smith/Romo are all very close together IMO; it depends on who ends up getting the best weapons and avoiding injuries. Eli & Losman would be the next group, and Frye way behind all of them.
As a Browns homer, I am increasingly losing faith in Frye. He just has not improved this year at all, which is a very bad sign going forward. Should be at the bottom of this list.
Gradkowski has not been very good this year, either. I think it is very telling that the Bucs want to sign Simms for 2 more years. Should not even be on the list since he won't start next year.
Leinart is definitely a nice one as long as they can keep those WRs. In general, I tend to like guys whose main weakness is arm strength; that is BY FAR the most overrated quality in an NFL quarterback.
Still not 100% sold on Romo, just seems like too much too soon. If he keeps it up for the rest of the year, then I'll buy it. Remember, also, his WRs are very good but very old; Patrick Crayton looks like a nice prospect, but who else?
I would put Rivers #1 here; as mentioned, very low risk, plus LDT won't last forever.
People are underrating Roethlisberger. For one thing, this has been his best fantasy season even with all the INTs; with all the stuff going on around him this year, and his performance over his first 2 seasons, I expect that INT total to decrease in following seasons. Additionally, Cowher may be a goner after this year, and the team lacks a quality big RB...so in the future, I don't see the Steelers remaining as committed to the run as they've been with Cowher & Bettis. Heck, they haven't been that committed to the run this year!
We don't have a whole lot to work with re: Cutler, but what we do know is mostly positive. That offense seems to yield good but not great fantasy QBs...but then, they haven't had anybody as talented as Cutler since you-know-who.
Vince Young, like all running QBs, is inherently high-risk. FWIW, I think he'll be better than Vick at least, as he seems willing to examine his weaknesses and work on them...heck, according to Footballoutsiders, Young has been a better passer than Vick this year! Past that, it's hard to say; he may have the highest ceiling of anybody here, but major injuries are always a concern with players like this. His progress thus far with a terrible supporting cast is encouraging, as that team has nowhere to go but up.
Count me in the anti-Eli camp. He's losing perhaps the best pass-catching RB in the league after this year, and his only legit WR is a flake. Also, the 3rd year of play often tends to be the deciding year for QBs, the year when you figure out exactly what you've got. There haven't been any freaky extenuating circumstances in Eli's 3rd year like there have been for Roethlisberger, so this is bad news. You can make the Aaron Brooks argument for him, but Aaron Brooks eventually got canned...
I like Alex Smith more than most. People forget, he is still younger than most rookies! In baseball, a 20-year-old who hits .275 with 15 HRs is a better long-term bet than a 25-year-old hitting .300/25; I would think the same thing applies in football, so his upside may well be greater than commonly believed. His current WRs are pretty darned weak as well.
So with all this, I guess my list would look something like:
1. Rivers
2. Leinart
3. Young
4. Roethlisberger
5. Cutler
6. Smith
7. Romo
8. Eli
9. Losman
10. Frye
Rivers & Leinart would be my definite top 2. VY/Ben/Cutler/Smith/Romo are all very close together IMO; it depends on who ends up getting the best weapons and avoiding injuries. Eli & Losman would be the next group, and Frye way behind all of them.
