Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
You're right, I didn't check out the link.But now that I look back over the games, the Broncos were in a lot of close games. A lot of passing situations. Which explains the inflated stats.
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Cutler will not report on Monday (1 Viewer)
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ScottyFargo
Footballguy
Wouldn't it only explain the inflated stats, such as his inflated 110.4 rating when the game is tied, if he were performing well in those situations?
gianmarco
Footballguy
Of course not, bc that would go against his predetermined stance that Cutler = bad and that he's overrated (despite the above #'s proving otherwise) as well as his 13-1 record when the Denver defense held opponents to 21 pts or less.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Just curious. Since when does close games = lot of passing situations?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Somebody was a little bit owned here.
Nice job with the stats, JWB. Thanks!
Nice job with the stats, JWB. Thanks!
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Obviously he performed at a high standard for most of the season. It's hard to take into account all ratings, stats, and percentages when grading. I think he's a good QB, don't get me wrong. And I haven't done the math myself. But if we were to really look at where Cutler was when the game was on the line, the above stats would need to be projected in 4th qtr situations only.What was his rating in the 4th qtr only when:
Ahead by 9-16: 82.4
Ahead by 1-8: 87.7
Tied: 110.4
Behind by 1-8: 90.3
Behind by 9-16: 68.0
The point I was making in my last post actually really didn't comment on his rating in those situations. Only stating that he was put in passing situations more often then most other QBs in the league. Stands to reason that he'd have more yards.... Not only because he has a strong arm and because he's a good QB, but because he NEEDED to throw the ball more based upon the situation his team was in so often... Tight games....
When you're ahead you run the ball right? (for the most part)
If the Broncos wouldn't have had one of the worst defenses in the league in '08' would he still have had the stats? Or the rating? Most likely they wouldn't have thrown the ball as much or needed the completions as bad if they weren't getting scored on as often... Right?
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ScottyFargo
Footballguy
Looking at his stats as posted above, he performed his best when the game was on the line. He played his worst when he was trying to come back, so I don't see how his stats would go down. If Denver had a defense they'd have won a ton more games with Cutler as their QB.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
When your Defense blows and you can't count on them to stop the opposing offense you need to score... Low scoring, grind it out games usually fall on the shoulders of the running backs and defense. Denver had neither... Cutler had to throw the ball... If you really can't see that, then there's no sense discussing it.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Well, my original post on the subject was based on 4th qtr... mop up time... So, the stats would have to be modified to only reflect 4th qtr situations. The stats above weren't an accurate picture based on the subject of my original post.
ScottyFargo
Footballguy
Denver ranked 12th in rushing last year despite having a million RBs IR'd. They averaged 4.8 YPC... they had a running game. Despite the fact that they attempted the run 5th lowest in the league (24.2 APG) they were quite successful with the run. When do you abandon the run? When your D has let you down. I don't think your argument here works.
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Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Do you think that Denver's run attempt/pass attempt ratio was weighed heavier to the pass attempts or to the run?And how many times do you think they were in games were they could afford to sit back on the RB's and "Grind it out"?
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ScottyFargo
Footballguy
It was weighted toward passing, as the Defense put the game often out of reach so they couldn't spend time running the ball. In a close game, you still run the ball. Denver had no problem running the ball. They passed to attempt to keep themselves in the game.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
So then proves my obvious point right?Cutler stats inflated by an extraordinary amount of passing attempts....
gianmarco
Footballguy
Your circular logic here is astounding. Let me get this straight. You make an incorrect statement about his mop up time. Someone shows that he didn't just fling it around in the 4th qtr but that his RATING was highest in the 4th as well as when he was ahead and/or tied. So you did the following:He does well in mop up time (suggesting they were behind a lot). You then learn that they were actually in a lot of close games. Then, the argument is that in close games, they had to throw a lot (when most teams run when the game is close). So, when they are NOT close, they throw. When they are close, they throw. So essentially, you think that a team should be throwing. And then, when someone states that when the game is close, you usually run but that Denver was usually behind (even though you stated above they were in closer games than you thought), you say "SEE!!. Isn't that what I said to start with?"Are you serious?ETA---Explain this to me then, also, please. If teams "throw so much when behind", why was Oakland 31st in the league in pass attempts? Why was Seattle 26th? Why was Buffalo 24th? Why were Detroit and SF 18th? Cinci at 16th? All of these terrible teams in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts when behind in so many games? Could it be that they didn't throw much because, despite teams WANTING to throw that much while behind, it's not always possible. And maybe the reason Cutler had so many attempts is because he actually did well with them and gave them the best chance to win, particularly when ahead or tied or in close games?
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Then Brees and Warner and Peyton and McNabb have inflated stats as well? I mean, they threw about the same or more than Cutler. Do you think these guys throw a lot because their teams are always behind in garbage time or is it possible these guys throw a lot because they happen to be good at it? Or the idea of mop up time and inflated stats due to pass attempts only applies to Cutler?
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Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Regardless of how we arrive at the conclusion...CUTLERS STATS WERE INFLATED.....And if you really care about how we got there, regardless of who was right and who was wrong about crossing t's and dotting I's...I lobbed out an off the cuff statement about him doing his best in mop up time. Which is 4th quarter by my definition. And the responding stats weren't 4th qtr stats but total game stats....Regardless of the off the cuff statement. My overall impression on Cutler is that his stats are inflated. So, I began to focus more on that. Which would be supported more by the passing situations than anything else. Which is where they laid heavily on whenever the game was tight or when they were behind. They couldn't rely on there running game when the game was tight because they needed to score often in order to keep up with the opposing offense.You can be a condescending jerk if you like. It won't change the fact that Cutler's stats are inflated. Maybe it makes you feel better though. So carry on...
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Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
We're talking about a run/pass ratio... would you like to break the ratios down for all 5 qb's?And I do think McNabbs stats are inflated by all the short dump off passes to Westbrook. But the difference would be that McNabb and Westbrook will still be together. Their situation isn't expected to change.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Arizona and New Orleans both passed more and ran less than Denver. So are their stats inflated as well?Here's another bit of info to chew on about your claim that Cutler got his stats in the 4th qtr during "mop up time"Cutler's pass attempts by qtr:1st -- 143 attempts (9/game)2nd -- 146 attempts (9/game)3rd -- 160 attempts (10/game)4th -- 166 attempts (10/game)In other words, he averaged a whole extra pass attempt in the 3rd and 4th qtrs than he did in the 1st or 2nd qtrs. I guess it must be all those pass attempts in mop up time.
Code:
1st qtr 94 143 1056 7.4 7 5 8 43 5.4 1 88.1 2nd qtr 91 146 1100 7.5 5 4 14 58 4.1 0 77.8 3rd qtr 99 160 1155 7.2 2 5 12 76 6.3 1 71.3 4th/OT 99 166 1208 7.3 11 4 18 25 1.4 0 109.9
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Banger
Footballguy
Great posts by Gianmarco and ScottyFargo...Carolina obviously has his opinion despite how incorrect and is trying to latch onto something. I think you're wasting your valuable knowledge.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Regards to the bolded statment:You'll never find a post of mine saying Cutler "got" his stats in 4th qtr during mop up time. I suggested he did his best in mop up time which still hasn't been disproved seeing that we don't have stats or rating specific to 4th qtr mop up time foe Cutler. But since you seem to be stuck on the issue I'll say f-it and move on....
And in regards to Arizona and New Orleans, I would say yes there passers stats are inflated as well. But here again, those situations aren't likely to change as drastically as Cutlers. Brees will still have Bush to dump off to. And bush will still be there to make those great plays after the catch. All team chemistry stays intact. No major play book changes. No major personnel changes. We can expect more of the same. Cutler on the other hand isn't going to have that luxury.
And according to your #'s above^^ It wasn't 1 more pass per game in the second half (Thrid and Fourth Qtr) then the first. It was an average of 2.3 which equal 37 more attempts in the second half for the season (approx 13% more).
gianmarco
Footballguy
To make an assertion that his stats are inflated in mop up time, he'd have to have a significantly higher proportion of attempts and yards in that 4th qtr mop up time.
The 4th qtr represents 25% of the game. In order for the "mop up" time claim to be true, I'd think he'd have to have at least 30-35% of his stats coming in that time frame.
Cutler threw for 1208 yds in the 4th qtr. This represents 26.7% of his total yards in the year.
Cutler threw for 166 attempts in the 4th qtr. This represents 26.9% of his total attempts in the year.
In other words, he almost perfectly balances out his passing attempts and yards through the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th qtr. In fact, in looking at other QB's at the top, he has probably the most consistent stats from qtr to qtr than any of them. Brees was a MONSTER in the 2nd qtr compared to the other 3 qtrs. Same with McNabb. Warner did more in the 2nd/3rd than 1st/4th. Peyton was about the only one who was about as consistent as Cutler from qtr to qtr.
In making me look these stats up, I'm actually surprised how much Cutler DID NOT pad his stats in the 4th qtr given how terrible that defense is. Your "off the cuff" statement couldn't be much further from the truth.
The 4th qtr represents 25% of the game. In order for the "mop up" time claim to be true, I'd think he'd have to have at least 30-35% of his stats coming in that time frame.
Cutler threw for 1208 yds in the 4th qtr. This represents 26.7% of his total yards in the year.
Cutler threw for 166 attempts in the 4th qtr. This represents 26.9% of his total attempts in the year.
In other words, he almost perfectly balances out his passing attempts and yards through the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th qtr. In fact, in looking at other QB's at the top, he has probably the most consistent stats from qtr to qtr than any of them. Brees was a MONSTER in the 2nd qtr compared to the other 3 qtrs. Same with McNabb. Warner did more in the 2nd/3rd than 1st/4th. Peyton was about the only one who was about as consistent as Cutler from qtr to qtr.
In making me look these stats up, I'm actually surprised how much Cutler DID NOT pad his stats in the 4th qtr given how terrible that defense is. Your "off the cuff" statement couldn't be much further from the truth.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Nice, A Cutler Apologist judging 2 more Cutler Apologists.... Look guys, If you think Cutler is your man for '09' go for it, He won't be my starter. If he ends up on any of my teams this year it will be as a backup...But hey, knock yourselves out.Good Luck!!
gianmarco
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
It is actually quite comical how Carolina Hustler keeps trying to change his argument, every time his previous one gets blown out of the water.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
I'm glad you are so transfixed on that off the cuff statement... Maybe we can focus on the expected stats for '09' Which will be falling far short of his inflated '08' stats. And this may effect your points output if you haven't already thought of that...
ScottyFargo
Footballguy
If I do draft him, I'll try to play him only in Mop Up Time® so I can take advantage of his inflated stats. Luckily my league has a rule that allows me to take advantage of such situations.
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Banger
Footballguy
I'm not Cutler apologist, just a believer in his ability. There's nothing to apologize for he's a terrific QB.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
LOL, have your fun boys.. I'll check back in laterIf I do draft him, I'll try to play him only in Mop Up Time® so I can take advantage of his inflated stats. Luckily my league has a rule that allows me to take advantage of such situations.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
For his bad aptitude... (TO junior in QB form)
gianmarco
Footballguy
No point in projecting 2009 when I don't even know what team he is going to play on. What I do know is that he's a talented QB and he is going to do well no matter what team he's on or what his situation is. Is he going to hit those pass attempts and passing #'s every year? Of course not. But he's also not going to bottom out no matter where he is and will remain a QB1 in this league no matter where he is. He hasn't gotten "lucky" up until this point. Stud WR's like Marshall don't inflate QB's #'s to the extent that Cutler put up. Ask Losman or Edwards. Ask Jake Delhomme. Ask Stanton or Orlovsky or Culpepper. Likewise, QB's that are talented can put up big #'s no matter who their WR's are. Ask McNabb. Ask Brees when he was without Colston all year. The point is, your statement was a blatant attempt to try and use the fact that Denver's defense was behind at the end of games and that Cutler padded his stats in the 4th qtr by heaving it up all over the place. That is completely obvious even though you are trying to deny this. The fact is, he put up #'s from the 1st qtr to the 4th qtr without any significant increase at all in the end. He did the same in 2007. He's going to do the same in 2009, be it in Denver or elsewhere. It's completely obvious you don't like him and you think he's just not that good. That's fine. Just don't go spouting off misinformation like you did trying to imply that he only did well because of 4th qtr garbage time. That couldn't be further from the truth and there have been stats posted to refute that.Of note, I'm not a Bronco fan or a Cutler fan by any stretch. I own him in all of 1 dynasty league (out of 9) and I own Rodgers there too. So there is no bias whatsoever. I'm not a "Cutler fan" in the sense that I have any specific loyalty to him. I'm a fan only in the sense that I think he's an insanely talented QB that is going to do well no matter where he ends up.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Sig bet on Cutlers '09' ranking?
gianmarco
Footballguy
Surely. QB12 or higher easily (QB1 #'s).
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
You're going with 12?That's losing fantasy #'sAll cutler camp here has been claiming top 5 at the worst. Someone had him ranked #1 If I remember correctly.Does the tune change when we're laying down bets?Maybe you and I aren't far off after all.If he stays in Denver I don't think he'll crack the top 7 (thats his ceiling, but could do MUCH worse). If he leaves this year for another team, won't crack the top 10 (Ceiling). If he sits out crying about not getting traded...... won't crack 25
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Banger
Footballguy
that's funny.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
I'm just glad I could give you something to smile about today.
Tau837
Footballguy
Carolina, I tried to reply to your mop up time definition post but you had deleted it. In that post, you mentioned that you define mop up time as the game being out of reach, which is usually in the 4th quarter and sometimes in the late 3rd quarter.
That is still imprecise, since I'm not sure how you'd define out of reach or "late 3rd quarter." I wanted to use a 15+ point margin starting with 5 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, since that is a margin of 2 TDs with at least one 2 point conversion or 3 scores, but the Data Dominator only provides 14 and 16 point margins. So I went with 16. DD tells us Cutler performed as follows in those situations last year:
Up by 16+: 2/5, 20 yards, 0 TDs, 0 interceptions
Down by 16+: 29/45 for 298 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 interceptions, 97.6 QB rating
That does show that he excelled in that situation. But I don't think it rises to the level of "inflating" his numbers. That is 7.3% of his attempts on the season. I would be surprised if Cutler's number of attempts in these situations is significantly different from other QBs in the same situations.
Looks like your mop up theory is off base. But I see you have cleverly tried to change the subject to 2009 projections, so I guess you've moved on.
ETA: I decided after the first post that 9+ and 12+ points weren't really mop up time. So I reposted this. I see that you quoted the first one. The bottom line is the same IMO.
That is still imprecise, since I'm not sure how you'd define out of reach or "late 3rd quarter." I wanted to use a 15+ point margin starting with 5 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, since that is a margin of 2 TDs with at least one 2 point conversion or 3 scores, but the Data Dominator only provides 14 and 16 point margins. So I went with 16. DD tells us Cutler performed as follows in those situations last year:
Up by 16+: 2/5, 20 yards, 0 TDs, 0 interceptions
Down by 16+: 29/45 for 298 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 interceptions, 97.6 QB rating
That does show that he excelled in that situation. But I don't think it rises to the level of "inflating" his numbers. That is 7.3% of his attempts on the season. I would be surprised if Cutler's number of attempts in these situations is significantly different from other QBs in the same situations.
Looks like your mop up theory is off base. But I see you have cleverly tried to change the subject to 2009 projections, so I guess you've moved on.
ETA: I decided after the first post that 9+ and 12+ points weren't really mop up time. So I reposted this. I see that you quoted the first one. The bottom line is the same IMO.
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dotman
Footballguy
What about it? Jay can't make the Broncos trade him.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Not really clever but certainly a better discussion than the definition of "Mop Up Time®" As I expected, this would certainly support an argument that Cutler does well in mop up time. I guess to refine it we'd have to figure out the rating for other top 5 qb's but it's not really worth the effort.
I'm embarrassed that I'm so lame I didn't even dig this up to support my argument. I guess it doesn't matter, as I was trying to move on to more important future production.
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massraider
Footballguy
This is awesome reading. Like watching a slow-motion car accident.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
moleculo
Footballguy
in terms of the run/pass ratio from Denver - this is something that was discussed prior to the season.
link 1
link 2
Cutlers stats being high was expected by some (myself included), so i have trouble understanding "inflated". Make no mistake - last years O was geared to throw first, much like Arizona or New Orleans.
Subjectively, watching the games themselves left little doubt that this was the intent.
link 1
link 2
Cutlers stats being high was expected by some (myself included), so i have trouble understanding "inflated". Make no mistake - last years O was geared to throw first, much like Arizona or New Orleans.
Subjectively, watching the games themselves left little doubt that this was the intent.
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Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
In terms of total career, when you look back years from now the question will be, Why couldn't Cutler ever duplicate that '08' production. The answer will be - Because the '08' #'s were inflated for many reasons. One of which being that he was playing in a pass heavy offense, with shaky running back situation, and very porous defense.Now mind you, I'm not saying Cutler sucks.. I'm saying he's not as good as advertised.. But still a top ten producer with top five physical abilities.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
I'm speaking from 2 different perspectives there. If you'll read the rest of the first post, you only quoted the second half, I wasn't talking about '09' specifically. I was talking about looking back over his career, years down the road.
In the second post you quoted I was speaking directly and specifically about '09' ranking. I expect him to take a fall in '09' due to so many changes to the game surrounding him. New coaching staff, potentially a new team.
Did I really need to explain that?
And I'm still waiting for your response to my post that you pulled the second quote from.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Given your previous posts in this thread, yes, you did. As to the sig bet, you claimed he would only a be a backup on your team. I said he's still a QB1. That would be top 12. If you're not happy with that, instead of just posting some random ramblings about "it seems most have him in the top 5" and all of your stuff about various situations, name some specific terms and I'll let you know. You inquired about a sig bet about Cutler but never named any terms. I proposed some and you said "that's it?". If you're not happy with that, come up with something yourself. Seeing in 2 of the 3 situations you listed, you said he won't crack the top 10 or the top 25, finishing top 12 should be pretty close to what you have in mind.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
Well, I guess all this debating back and fourth just for us to agree that he'll rank between 10th and 12th best is kinda comical....To sum up my opinion - Cutler won't do nearly as well in '09' as he's done in '08' and may never duplicate those #'s again. If you disagree with that in part or in total then your 12th best stance would overshadow your argument...gianmarco said:
gianmarco
Footballguy
You're confusing the entire issue here. I do NOT agree he will rank between 10th and 12th. The main problem is that you don't like Cutler and it's obvious from the bias in your posts. You threw out a comment that implied he "padded his stats" bc of mop up time (i.e., garbage time). You obviously think his 2008 #'s are inflated and may never be reached again.Me, on the other hand, simply refuted your ridiculous statement and proved otherwise. I showed he put up almost the same #'s in qtr 1 as he did in qtr 2 as he did in qtr3 and as he did in qtr 4. I also think he's one of the most talented QB's in the league.
To me, whether or not he duplicates his #'s in 2008 are irrelevant. In a dynasty format, only Brees, Brady, and Manning would be clear choices ahead of him. I have him grouped in the next tier with Rivers and Rodgers. Right behind them are Warner and Romo. So that means I have Cutler ranked anywhere between #4 and #6 and that's keeping in mind his current situation. Is that simply related to what he'll do in 2009? No, it's not. But, even if I were to think he wouldn't do as well in 2009, there's no one else I'd put ahead of him other than the guys listed here. He still remains a QB1 and will easily finish with QB1 #'s. That's the thing is that I think his floor is pretty safe no matter where he goes (QB12 or higher) with considerably high upside to finish in the top 3. Even in a redraft format that was drafting right now, Cutler would be right there at #6 (at worst) as there aren't 10-12 QBs I would rank higher than him.
I never made a claim he will be ranked in the top 5 of QBs in fantasy football for 2009. Just because I have Brees as my #1 doesn't mean I'd be that he finishes there. Just that there's no one else I'd rather have than him. Same goes for Cutler. Just because I have him ranked anywhere from #4 to #6 doesn't mean I think he's going to finish in at least those rankings.
Your arguments here have been foolish. You've changed your tune countless times every time a statement of yours has been refuted. Now you're onto 2009 projections which are silly since we have no idea how this situation is going to end up. If he remains in Denver, his situation will be better than if he goes elsewhere. However, even if he goes elsewhere, he's still a rock solid play because he has top 5 talent in the league and that will shine through no matter where he is.
I'm convinced he's a #1 QB for fantasy purposes and that is defined as QB12 or better by most people. Am I convinced he'll finish top 5 in 2009? Nope, not at all. But I am convinced he'll finish top 12. And that, combined with his potential to be the #1 QB, justifies my ranking of #4-#6 dynasty QB (and redraft, for that matter).
You mentioned that if he leaves Denver, you think he doesn't even make the top 10 and I think that's ridiculous. So if you want to move the bar up slightly to top 10 to satisfy your little sig bet, then fine. Otherwise, we can end this now and let this thread get back on topic. The point stands that, aside from his antics, Cutler has shown he's an insanely talented QB that is almost guaranteed to put up #'s no matter where he ends up. You don't seem to believe that. You also seem to believe he just does well in "mop up time". I'll stick with my opinions on both matters.
What might be a better exercise is for you to list your 10-12 QBs you'd rank ahead of him for 2009. Should be interesting.
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Tau837
Footballguy
While I am generally on your side of this debate, I think this is overstatement here.Cutler has played two full seasons. In the first, he was QB11, with 3497/20/14 on 467 attempts. In the second, he was QB5, with 4526/25/18 on 616 attempts. He has not stood out from his peers in terms of any rate- or attempt-based metric, other than sack rating in 2008. He could easily go to another team without the caliber of targets he has had in Denver and/or get 500 or fewer attempts in any given season... in which case he could easily finish outside the top 10.
moleculo
Footballguy
we can get into a chicken/egg discussion though - I would argue that the Broncos went so pass/heavy because they had Cutler. With Cutler at the helm, throwing often was their best chance for success. Another team might reach a similar conclusion.
parrot
Footballguy
Of course the flip side of this stat is that in Denver's 20 losses since Cutler became QB in only four of them has the offense scored as much as 21 points.
