Daniel Thomas 2012 Outlook (1 Viewer)

[Sleeper 43]

Looking forward into this year Daniel Thomas seems like a great value, hes going extremely late, why so many doubters? Does everyone really believe Reggie is a 3 down back, can run between the tackles and is not injury prone? Lamar Miller is just not impressive to me on tape and I've only heard good reports on Thomas so far in camp. Just seems like a great sleeper, am I missing something?

 

[Gawain]

He has yet to show NFL talent.

 

[Todem]

Looking forward into this year Daniel Thomas seems like a great value, hes going extremely late, why so many doubters? Does everyone really believe Reggie is a 3 down back, can run between the tackles and is not injury prone? Lamar Miller is just not impressive to me on tape and I've only heard good reports on Thomas so far in camp. Just seems like a great sleeper, am I missing something?

Lamar Miller is this teams future at RB and by mid season will leap right over Daniel Thomas as the 2nd string RB (probably sooner IMO). Not impressive on tape? I watched every game of his career down here at the "U". He has elite talent.Stick a fork in Daniel Thomas.

 

[FavreCo]

Looking forward into this year Daniel Thomas seems like a great value, hes going extremely late, why so many doubters? Does everyone really believe Reggie is a 3 down back, can run between the tackles and is not injury prone? Lamar Miller is just not impressive to me on tape and I've only heard good reports on Thomas so far in camp. Just seems like a great sleeper, am I missing something?

Lamar Miller is this teams future at RB and by mid season will leap right over Daniel Thomas as the 2nd string RB (probably sooner IMO). Not impressive on tape? I watched every game of his career down here at the "U". He has elite talent.Stick a fork in Daniel Thomas.

What he said.

 

[Ace08]

As a long time Miami resident who's been watching Lamar Miller since his high school days....don't even bother with Daniel Thomas.

For 2012 Bush is the guy to own here for redraft purposes...but he's a UFA after the season and it's like the Phins won't bring him back.

 

[moderated]

daniel thomas is a bet against reggie bush staying healthy, i like the bet at his ADP.

Love Miller, but he's so young and they probably won't use him a lot until he knows the offense better.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Looking forward into this year Daniel Thomas seems like a great value, hes going extremely late, why so many doubters? Does everyone really believe Reggie is a 3 down back, can run between the tackles and is not injury prone? Lamar Miller is just not impressive to me on tape and I've only heard good reports on Thomas so far in camp. Just seems like a great sleeper, am I missing something?

I am a believer in Reggie, I was wrong about him last year. Reggie ran hard and played well last year. Thomas is a backup at Best.

 

[shadyridr]

i just remember the game he had vs houston last year and dude looked like a beast. then he hurt his hammy and kept reaggravating it and it was all downhill. i agree, great post hype sleeper

 

[Ace08]

daniel thomas is a bet against reggie bush staying healthy, i like the bet at his ADP.Love Miller, but he's so young and they probably won't use him a lot until he knows the offense better.

Yes I understand the bet against bush. What I'm saying is even if Bush goes down Thomas won't be start-able for FF purposes. Thomas was a reach in the 2nd round when Ireland took him....and now he's looking like an outright bust. No burst, vision between the tackles is average at best, and goes down easy on contact.If Bush goes down...the Phins will pass even more (I expect them to be pass heavy even with Bush)and for Miller to see the field more as the year goes on.If anyone has a chance to have fantasy relevance here it's Bush....beyond that I don't think there's anything to see here, not for 2012 at least.

 

[Abspara]

He has yet to show NFL talent.

Pretty much this. He's not making the most of the opportunity he's been given.I'd not waste a roster spot on this guy hoping for something that may never happen.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Thomas was a reach in the 2nd round when Ireland took him....and now he's looking like an outright bust. No burst, vision between the tackles is average at best, and goes down easy on contact.

Spot on

 

[zilladog]

i just remember the game he had vs houston last year and dude looked like a beast. then he hurt his hammy and kept reaggravating it and it was all downhill. i agree, great post hype sleeper

4.9 ypc before the Hammy injury (first 2 games). 3.05 ypc after

100 yard game in his first ever NFL game after a lockout offseason (I know that gets used a lot but hey, it's a legit factor to consider)

To me, those are signs of big potential...I'm a buyer.

Is it just me or has is everyone being extremely short-sighted on Reggie Bush? He didn't come on last year until week 8 vs. NYG. After many owners hoping for a breakout had already given up on him...again. No doubt he looked incredible in those last 9 weeks of 2011, but what about the other 5 AND A HALF YEARS of disappointment, inconsistency and injuries we can look back on with this guy? What about that Reggie Bush? Seems like people have completely forgotten about that runner.

By the way, from weeks 8-16 (his first 100 yd rushing game to the end of the season), these are the rushing defense rankings that Reggie Bush faced (based on rushing yards allowed):

week 8: NYG (19th)

week 9: KC (26th)

week 10: WAS (18th)

week 11: BUF (28th)

week 12: DAL (7th)

week 13 OAK (27th)

week 14: PHI (16th)

week 15: BUF (28th)

week 16: NE (17th)

week 17: OUT

For those not doing the math, those are all BOTTOM HALF RUSHING DEFENSES except 1, Dallas. And in the Dallas game, he was held to 61 rushing yards on 16 carries (3.8 ypc) and single digit fantasy points for non-ppr. I know, I know, Dan Thomas looked terrible at times vs. those very same defenses, but again, he was a rookie with no offseason playing through a bum hammy. IMO he gets a pass.

The jury is still out on Thomas....But we know what we're getting with Bush.

 

[KellysHeroes]

-2 yards last night

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Thomas looked very very good when healthy.

He really lacks confidence at times and can't play through aches/pains. I think he's the best runner on the team when healthy. But inability to play effectively through pain isn't going to provide a long career in the NFL.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Thomas looked very very good when healthy.

He really lacks confidence at times and can't play through aches/pains. I think he's the best runner on the team when healthy. But inability to play effectively through pain isn't going to provide a long career in the NFL.

So just to be clear, Thomas looked good in 2 games. Correct?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Is it just me or has is everyone being extremely short-sighted on Reggie Bush? He didn't come on last year until week 8 vs. NYG. After many owners hoping for a breakout had already given up on him...again. No doubt he looked incredible in those last 9 weeks of 2011, but what about the other 5 AND A HALF YEARS of disappointment, inconsistency and injuries we can look back on with this guy? What about that Reggie Bush? Seems like people have completely forgotten about that runner.

Yes, agreed, people are being short-sighted....or perhaps narrow-minded....on Reggie Bush. In Bush's first two seasons, the only disappointment was that he couldn't stay completely healthy. Despite that, he was a strong fantasy producer in 2006-07....and even did well on a PPG basis in 2008.2006: 16 games played, 565 yds rushing, 742 yds receiving, 8 TDs. 178.7 fantasy points = 11.2 fantasy points per game

2007: 12 games played, 581 yds rushing, 417 yds receiving, 6 TDs. 134.8 fantasy points = 11.2 fantasy points per game

2008: 10 games played, 404 yds rushing, 440 yds receiving, 6 TDs. 120.4 fantasy points = 12.0 fantasy points per game

And what did Bush do in 2011?

2011: 16 games played, 1086 yds rushing, 296 yds receiving, 7 TDs. 181.2 fantasy points = 11.3 fantasy points per game

These results were all good for solid RB2 numbers, and very consistent year-to-year on a PPG basis. What's not to like? When on the field, what is there to be disappointed about? Seems that injuries have been his biggest issue all along....but nothing else...

* Note: I excluded Bush's return stats since he is unlikely to be used that way as much going forward. Also excluded fumbles due to laziness.

 

[zilladog]

If by consistent you mean consistently injured then yeah, I'm with ya.

Maybe he turned the corner in his career. Maybe NO was jUst the wrong place for him. Maybe he's a solid rb2 going forward. Or maybe he just had 1 lucky season where things broke his way for a change. I'm just playing the odds.

This team looks like a clear committee situation to me. With Bush being the 1 at least to start. Miller will make his bid for touches but he's more than likely going to have to wait a year. I see rb3 type of #s for Thomas, with upside to take over as the 1 back and put up rb2 #s. with Bush I see an rb2 with downside.

 

[KellysHeroes]

last night was better, out playing Reggie

 

[renesauz]

People write off young players too quickly too often. You've got a highly touted young RB coming into only his second season in the NFL, when his rookie pre-season was strike shortened. If you believed in him last year...no way you should write him off now.

I love picking guys like this up in the middle rounds...second year players that were highly touted coming in but for one reason or another didn't perform well as a rookie.

LeSean McCoy looked very pedestrian in his rookie season. So have many other great players. Just because most RBs show well in year one doesn't mean they all do. ALWAYS give them 2 years. I'm not trying to tout Thomas as a RB2 here...but as the 30th or so RB off the board? Terrific risk/reward profile at that point.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

last night was better, out playing Reggie

Not sure that's true. I did the game thread last night, almost every play I posted in the 1st half of that thread, worth digging thru.

People write off young players too quickly too often. You've got a highly touted young RB coming into only his second season in the NFL, when his rookie pre-season was strike shortened. If you believed in him last year...no way you should write him off now.I love picking guys like this up in the middle rounds...second year players that were highly touted coming in but for one reason or another didn't perform well as a rookie.LeSean McCoy looked very pedestrian in his rookie season. So have many other great players. Just because most RBs show well in year one doesn't mean they all do. ALWAYS give them 2 years. I'm not trying to tout Thomas as a RB2 here...but as the 30th or so RB off the board? Terrific risk/reward profile at that point.

I don't think Thomas is McCoy and that's not what you were saying, I do feel that Thomas has shown a lot more wiggle this preseason than last. Good news for Miami who might have 3 decent RBs in their camp right now.

 

[Todem]

If your in a redraft.....avoid all Miami players at all costs.

We will be lucky to win 3 games.

This offense is going to struggle badly and we very well may end up as the 32nd ranked offense in the league. OL is shaky, and no WR's at all other than Bess.

I am hoping Hartline can come back....and Gates can make this team and develop. The rest are pure garbage by NFL standards.

 

[Smarge]

As someone who watched all of his games at KState, but not much with the Dolphins, all of the criticisms in this thread are a surprise. At KSU, as the workhorse, he always played through injuries. Had a shoulder that bothered him throughout his senior season. He was decisive and powerful. The only questions I had about him was straight line speed and blitz pickup. I hope he turns it around, because he's a good guy. He absolutely has the talent, and he was worthy of a 2nd round pick coming out. Those saying "I've seen all of Miller's games at Miami" and suggest he's so much better than Thomas....there are no guarantees. Thomas was a stud at KSU against big time talent. Something's gone wrong, and it happens all the time.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

catching the replay of ATL/MIA, I thought that the Fins OL looked decent. John Jerry is a load, but if he turns the switch on, he's an upgrade over Artis Hicks. I have the Fins at 15th overall in the line rankings as the season opens.

 

[TheFanatic]

I just caught the Phins/ATL game as well. Thomas split time with Reggie with the first team, against the first team. If you think this is Reggie's show again this year, that alone tells me that is not a good line of thinking. They split time against the ones and DT outplayed RB. Not sure if that will translate to the regular season, but DT looked like the better back...

 

[Otis]

Bush is going to have a monster year.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

I drafted him last year and he's my RB4 behind CJ2K, Martin and Spiller. I too hope he can devolp into a feature back but its going to take Bush going down to see that opportunity.

 

[bonesman]

I just caught the Phins/ATL game as well. Thomas split time with Reggie with the first team, against the first team. If you think this is Reggie's show again this year, that alone tells me that is not a good line of thinking. They split time against the ones and DT outplayed RB. Not sure if that will translate to the regular season, but DT looked like the better back...

 

[FF Ninja]

When will college-football-fan realize that nobody gives a **** that they saw every down a guy played in college and that they think he is the real deal? That is NOT a convincing point in these threads. Scouts aren't always right (although they probably are more right than college-football-fan), but they watched all of Miller's games and they let him slip to the 4th.

I probably won't land DT on any of my teams due to my anticipation of Miami's struggles, but I won't be surprised if he's a stud. Hamstring injuries are hard to come back from and just kill a RB's game. Fact is, we've seen 2 NFL games from DT (and he did pretty well) and 0 from Miller. One was a 2nd round pick and one was a 4th. Can't blindly go by draft pick, but if Vegas were to put odds on it, DT:LM would be like 5:3 on who will be the better back.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I just caught the Phins/ATL game as well. Thomas split time with Reggie with the first team, against the first team. If you think this is Reggie's show again this year, that alone tells me that is not a good line of thinking. They split time against the ones and DT outplayed RB. Not sure if that will translate to the regular season, but DT looked like the better back...

he looked way better, back on my board and trade offer are going out for him before the season starts

 

[Ace08]

Daniel Thomas is , at best, an average NFL running back. The guy you want to keep an eye on here for later in the season in the event Bush goes down is Lamar Miller.

 

[Todem]

Daniel Thomas is , at best, an average NFL running back. The guy you want to keep an eye on here for later in the season in the event Bush goes down is Lamar Miller.

Exactly.This team will struggle to move the ball yet alone score. If your banking on Reggie Bush this year..be afraid be very afraid. If you are stashing Daniel Thomas as a dynasty prospect....good luck. He has done nothing to inspire any confidence he will anything more than an average pro.Lamar Miller on the other hand has elite skills. I am talking about Clinton Portis type of speed and agilty (when Portis first came to the NFL from UM). He can take it to the house from a anywhere, can run between the tackles when needed, and catch the ball.Lamar Miller has a huge ceiling. I have him rated right there with David Wilson as the 2nd best RB prospect in this draft behind Trent Richardson. He is a perfect fit for this new West Coast Offense installed by the new OC and HC. He will have his time at some point this season when we are toiling at 2-6 or 2-7. The Dolphins are in full on rebuild mode.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Was hoping to see some positive things out of DT this week on Hard Knocks and instead got the 2 lates in 4 days.... I still believe!

 

[Ace08]

There's nothing to believe in here...he's an average NFL talent. We're not talking about a guy with elite speed or quickness. His vision between the tackles isn't great and he's not a "violent" runner given his frame either.

I'm a loyal Dolfan...trust me if there was anything at all to be "homerish" about here I'd back the kid up. He is the definition of an average, plodding, NFL running back.

Now Miller on the other hand is a whole different story. I'd be willing to bet that barring injury Miller will eventually be a guy who gets drafted in the first 3 rounds of fantasy drafts. Is he a good bet this year? No...total wild card since his value will be dependent on others in front of him getting hurt but I can tell you with all confidence the kid has 3 down back skills. He's a GREAT receiver out of the backfield and he's got well documented speed. If not for his constant shoulder injuries and the fact he only really played one full year at Miami he would have been a first round pick had he stayed for his senior year.

I said my piece. Do with it what you will but the rosy outlook that many have on this board regarding Thomas is simply misguided IMO. The simple fact that a GM as inept as Jeff Ireland liked him, drafted him, and moved up in the draft to get him should tell you what kind of a reach pick that was for the Phins in the 2nd round.

 

[jdswan922]

. The simple fact that a GM as inept as Jeff Ireland liked him, drafted him, and moved up in the draft to get him should tell you what kind of a reach pick that was for the Phins in the 2nd round.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile...

 

[joey]

. The simple fact that a GM as inept as Jeff Ireland liked him, drafted him, and moved up in the draft to get him should tell you what kind of a reach pick that was for the Phins in the 2nd round.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile...

Didn't Ireland also draft Miller?

 

[Crazy Tony]

This is from rotoworld yesterday:...from hardknocks.

Tuesday night's episode of Hard Knocks revealed that Dolphins RB Daniel Thomas has been in coach Joe Philbin's doghouse of late.

After flashing questionable instincts and refusing to run with the power befitting a 230-pound back last season, Thomas has shown a lack of personal responsibility this summer. "I'm getting a little queasy about you," said Philbin. "You got to take responsibility for your own career, what you're doing and when you're doing it. I don't want to come talk to you again." To this point, Thomas looks like a second-round bust. As he's clearly not a favorite of the new coaching staff, perhaps the Lions will inquire into his availability.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

Not looking good after one week. Any word on his concussion?

 

[GManiac]

I don't understand this Miller love. He's a good runner. Havn't really seen him between the tackles though. Definitely seems more of an outside rusher. Oh. And he can't pass block worth a damn. I don't know if DT or Miller is the long term answer in Miami. But Thomas doesn't have to be Ray Rice to be a successful NFL or Fantasy RB. I think his strong running style suits Miami. Would not be surprised if he puts together a very nice career for himself as a Starter. More than I see for Miller.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't understand this Miller love. He's a good runner. Havn't really seen him between the tackles though. Definitely seems more of an outside rusher. Oh. And he can't pass block worth a damn. I don't know if DT or Miller is the long term answer in Miami. But Thomas doesn't have to be Ray Rice to be a successful NFL or Fantasy RB. I think his strong running style suits Miami. Would not be surprised if he puts together a very nice career for himself as a Starter. More than I see for Miller.

I obviously can't say which one is better, but we're on a fantasy football board and Miller is a rookie. This cycle will always repeat. I know DT was a 2nd round pick and Miller was a 4th, but if Miller pulls a hamstring this year and they draft a guy next year then Miller will suddenly become chopped liver...

 

[GManiac]

I don't understand this Miller love. He's a good runner. Havn't really seen him between the tackles though. Definitely seems more of an outside rusher. Oh. And he can't pass block worth a damn. I don't know if DT or Miller is the long term answer in Miami. But Thomas doesn't have to be Ray Rice to be a successful NFL or Fantasy RB. I think his strong running style suits Miami. Would not be surprised if he puts together a very nice career for himself as a Starter. More than I see for Miller.

I obviously can't say which one is better, but we're on a fantasy football board and Miller is a rookie. This cycle will always repeat. I know DT was a 2nd round pick and Miller was a 4th, but if Miller pulls a hamstring this year and they draft a guy next year then Miller will suddenly become chopped liver...

Yea, I suppose "new" is always shinier. They have decent amount invested in DT. I think Bush and DT do a T&L type thing this year and maybe Miller eventually takes over the L role. I picked DT off waivers in a 16 team DYNASTY league. Crazy if you ask me.