Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders

Player Page Link: Darren McFadden Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Return of the Sheep]

I look for a nice year out of McFadden. A very fast and capable WR crew will keep the defense honest as Palmer will get to spend some time with his recievers during the offseason. I see a very impressive offense. Can he meet his own goals with 1800 yrds rushing? Maybe. I'll shoot a little lower, but it wouldn't surprise me to see some much higher numbers.

305 - 1525 - 9td

50 - 425 - 4td

1-1 pass completion to palmer for a td

 

[womb]

I will copy and paste what I wrote last year; as I only believe in it more. The changes are that Bush has left while Goodson has joined; and Al Davis has passed away.

I like him. He has a high ceiling. He can easily put together 100+ yards and a TD any given week.

With that, I can not forecast a season total for him. Say it is injury, or a run stifling defense like the ones against PIT and MIA last year. It does not matter to what I am saying, he has high volatility and as an owner you need to have insurance plans when you have him.

Also, Bush is a lingering threat, especially when he shined the weeks McFadden was out (like week 5 against the Chargers and 17 against the Chiefs), and those short yardages (especially from around the goal line). He is still around. And now McFadden also has Taiwan Jones, the fastest RB this year, to compete with. Being fast may not have been a sole factor in another team, but the last time I checked Al Davis was still alive and kickin'.

So, would I want McFadden on my team? Absolutely!

Would I pay 1st round price for him? Absolutely!

Do I think he is the type of player that I can rely 16 weeks? Absolutely not!

If I draft him, do I put more importance on WR depth or RB depth? Definately RB depth over WR depth.

What kind of stats would I give him? I would rather give him fantasy stats: 15-25 point range for 10 games, 0-5 point range for 4 games, out for 2 games.

 

[Shutout]

I will copy and paste what I wrote last year; as I only believe in it more. The changes are that Bush has left while Goodson has joined; and Al Davis has passed away.

I like him. He has a high ceiling. He can easily put together 100+ yards and a TD any given week.

With that, I can not forecast a season total for him. Say it is injury, or a run stifling defense like the ones against PIT and MIA last year. It does not matter to what I am saying, he has high volatility and as an owner you need to have insurance plans when you have him.

Also, Bush is a lingering threat, especially when he shined the weeks McFadden was out (like week 5 against the Chargers and 17 against the Chiefs), and those short yardages (especially from around the goal line). He is still around. And now McFadden also has Taiwan Jones, the fastest RB this year, to compete with. Being fast may not have been a sole factor in another team, but the last time I checked Al Davis was still alive and kickin'.

So, would I want McFadden on my team? Absolutely!

Would I pay 1st round price for him? Absolutely!

Do I think he is the type of player that I can rely 16 weeks? Absolutely not!

If I draft him, do I put more importance on WR depth or RB depth? Definately RB depth over WR depth.

What kind of stats would I give him? I would rather give him fantasy stats: 15-25 point range for 10 games, 0-5 point range for 4 games, out for 2 games.

Agree with everything you said with the exception of paying the 1st for him. For my teams, I believe there are enough 1st round talents out there that are difference makers, just like DMAC, that have a much higher chance of playing ALL the games. So I take them and, as a result, will likely not have DMAC on any of my teams. Like most people, I LOVE the idea of the points he can get but when, not if, he misses time for 1-2 or 3-4 weeks, I want my 1st rounder (Calvin, Rodgers, Brees, whoever) on the field stil getting points.

 

[bigmarc27]

I had him paired with Bush in my dynasty for the past few years, but sold him about 2 months back. I don't remember every getting a point out of hm in the playoffs.

1200 yards, 12 TDs

10 games max

 

[az_prof]

I think you have to assume that he will not play a full 16 games. How many? I will go with 12, which is on the high side, given that he is coming off a liz franc injury that sidelined him for the last 9 games of last season. Over his 4 year career he has played in 70% of the games, which averages out to 11.2. I'll round up to 12.

Next question is ypc. The last two he has had a phenomenal ypc when he has played. But earlier in his career it wasn't nearly so good. The offensive scheme is switching to a zone block system, which is what the team used earlier in his career. That doesn't mean he won't do well in it because there are other factors that could have affected his performance in the first two years. But I think it makes sense to use his career ypc, which averages the ypc of those early years in the zone scheme with the last two years. His career ypc is 4.8, still very good.

How many carriers will he get? I think the team will ride him as long as he is healthy. Last year he received heavy usage before his injury and I think that is a good model to use. Last year he got 18.5 carries/game. He caught 3 passes/game and I will assume that continues. This last factor is really an important one for ppr but it seems to me difficult to predict. I could easily imagine him catching the ball even more, but if the team decides to use Goodson, he is a great receiver out of the backfield.

I do see his TDs/touch going up with Bush gone as he should get more goal line opportunities. He has had a total of 669 touches (runs plus catches) and 20 TDs in his career, for an average TD/touch of .0029. I am projecting him to have 222 carries and 36 catches, for a total of 258 touches. Let's assume that he scores with the same frequency as Ray Rice in 2011--.0408. That comes to 10.5 TDs, which I will round up to 11 TDs

So, assuming 12 games, 18,.5 carries/game, 4.8 ypc, and 3 receptions/game, we get the following.

222 carries, 4.8 ypc, 1065 yards, 36 receptions, 370 yards, 11 TDs.

 

[Shutout]

I think you have to assume that he will not play a full 16 games. How many? I will go with 12, which is on the high side, given that he is coming off a liz franc injury that sidelined him for the last 9 games of last season. Over his 4 year career he has played in 70% of the games, which averages out to 11.2. I'll round up to 12.

Next question is ypc. The last two he has had a phenomenal ypc when he has played. But earlier in his career it wasn't nearly so good. The offensive scheme is switching to a zone block system, which is what the team used earlier in his career. That doesn't mean he won't do well in it because there are other factors that could have affected his performance in the first two years. But I think it makes sense to use his career ypc, which averages the ypc of those early years in the zone scheme with the last two years. His career ypc is 4.8, still very good.

How many carriers will he get? I think the team will ride him as long as he is healthy. Last year he received heavy usage before his injury and I think that is a good model to use. Last year he got 18.5 carries/game. He caught 3 passes/game and I will assume that continues. This last factor is really an important one for ppr but it seems to me difficult to predict. I could easily imagine him catching the ball even more, but if the team decides to use Goodson, he is a great receiver out of the backfield.

I do see his TDs/touch going up with Bush gone as he should get more goal line opportunities. He has had a total of 669 touches (runs plus catches) and 20 TDs in his career, for an average TD/touch of .0029. I am projecting him to have 222 carries and 36 catches, for a total of 258 touches. Let's assume that he scores with the same frequency as Ray Rice in 2011--.0408. That comes to 10.5 TDs, which I will round up to 11 TDs

So, assuming 12 games, 18,.5 carries/game, 4.8 ypc, and 3 receptions/game, we get the following.

222 carries, 4.8 ypc, 1065 yards, 36 receptions, 370 yards, 11 TDs.

Good post.I will add one thought on what you said. Reggie McKenzie was interviewed a few weeks ago and he said outright that the team was aware of the use of DMAC in the past and had a "plan", using the other RBS, to hopefully keep DMAC available for all games. He did not elaborate on that but it did kind of sound that DMAC won't be a guy that gets a lot of carries unless it is needed (I was thinking maybe they see goodson/Jones as guys you see a lot more of once the game is in hand (or out of reach) or perhaps they have certain areas of the field that the others would be used in more. I don't know because he was vague but it was interestingt hat he flat out acknowledged that it has been thought about.

 

[MAC_32]

I will copy and paste what I wrote last year; as I only believe in it more. The changes are that Bush has left while Goodson has joined; and Al Davis has passed away.

I like him. He has a high ceiling. He can easily put together 100+ yards and a TD any given week.

With that, I can not forecast a season total for him. Say it is injury, or a run stifling defense like the ones against PIT and MIA last year. It does not matter to what I am saying, he has high volatility and as an owner you need to have insurance plans when you have him.

Also, Bush is a lingering threat, especially when he shined the weeks McFadden was out (like week 5 against the Chargers and 17 against the Chiefs), and those short yardages (especially from around the goal line). He is still around. And now McFadden also has Taiwan Jones, the fastest RB this year, to compete with. Being fast may not have been a sole factor in another team, but the last time I checked Al Davis was still alive and kickin'.

So, would I want McFadden on my team? Absolutely!

Would I pay 1st round price for him? Absolutely!

Do I think he is the type of player that I can rely 16 weeks? Absolutely not!

If I draft him, do I put more importance on WR depth or RB depth? Definately RB depth over WR depth.

What kind of stats would I give him? I would rather give him fantasy stats: 15-25 point range for 10 games, 0-5 point range for 4 games, out for 2 games.

Agree with everything you said with the exception of paying the 1st for him. For my teams, I believe there are enough 1st round talents out there that are difference makers, just like DMAC, that have a much higher chance of playing ALL the games. So I take them and, as a result, will likely not have DMAC on any of my teams. Like most people, I LOVE the idea of the points he can get but when, not if, he misses time for 1-2 or 3-4 weeks, I want my 1st rounder (Calvin, Rodgers, Brees, whoever) on the field stil getting points.

I'll take him in round 2 if he's available and practicing in camp.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Through 6 weeks, life with Darren McFadden was bliss. 768 YFS/5TD’s. McFadden was on his way to a season that would have him in the conversation for 1st overall pick in the 2012 FF Draft Pool. And then, this insignificant little foot sprain sidelined him against KC. We waited for reports on his return. They even had him standing on the sidelines in full pads…as if he were waiting to go back into the game. It never happened. It still hasn’t happened. Can you tell I’m scarred?

The fact of the matter is that McFadden wasn’t being overworked…he was on pace for 344 touches. He simply caught a bad injury that he couldn’t shake. But the dye has really been cast here. If you draft McFadden, you have to commit to going deep at RB. In essence, you can’t be caught without insurance which means spending and extra pick amongst your 1st 6 at the RB position to grab an RB4. It’s not so much that he gets injured a lot…but it seems like in addition to that he struggles to get back. A 1 week injury turns into 3 weeks. A ‘he’ll be back after the bye’ sees him not able to return at all. God forbid he gets Turf Toe again, he might be given a life expectancy reading. Ladies and gentlemen…we have this decades version of Fragile Fred. Talent so tantalizing, but end of year satisfaction so elusive.

What we do know though is this. Coming off his breakout 2010, people wondered if he was the real deal. He put that to rest. When healthy, he’s as good as any RB in the NFL. He can do as many things as any RB in the NFL. This is why his ADP at this stage of the game is higher than it was last year because now we feel confident that his abilities have indeed transferred from the college game to the NFL.

And with Michael Bush gone and Mike Goodson inserted into that role, or a combination of him and Taiwan Jones…it’s possible that McFadden could garner an even heavier workload. But I can’t think that the Raiders won’t look to establish a pitch count of sorts with him that would cap his touches to a certain per game level (on average). But I think you need to expect McFadden to lose at least 2 games to injury and I’m going to say the Raiders use 20/touches game as a barometer. I also wonder if even more emphasis will be given to getting McFadden the ball in the passing game, out in space to perhaps minimize his contact points. I know he actually injured the foot on a pass play…I don’t know. He was on pace for 48 receptions and I could easily see the new brass finding a way to pace him at 4-5/game versus 3. At the end of the day, McFadden is truly one of FF’s biggest enigmas and you have to be a risk taker to stomach having him on your team. Every pile-up is a heart in throat moment. However, he’s also as exciting a player as there is in the NFL and is a big threat every time he touches the ball. He's said he has an 1800 yard rushing season as his goal, but I suspect the new coaching staff will make him earn a right to ascend to that level via durability benchmarks.

Prediction: (14 games) 217 Rushes, 1057 Rushing Yards, 10 Rushing TD’s; 61 Receptions, 441 Receiving Yards, 2 TD’s.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

There isn’t as maligned a back in all of fantasy football as Darren McFadden. The stat junkie will point to the career stats and say he’s not in the elite class. Instead of relying on the “eyeball” test, they value lesser RB’s accumulation of numbers behind strong offensive lines. The stat junkie will never comprehend that on a talent level, Darren McFadden is top 2 in the league. That’s a special tier. Right there alongside ADP.

There is a prevailing opinion in the media, blogs and in the shark pool that McFadden is made of glass. And to be fair, he’s missed his share of games over his first 4 years. Other than breakout 2010 season, his storyline reads of a player destined to pull up limp from some sort of ailment or another. It’s been his calling card. It’s very frustrating to fantasy owners to invest a high pick and get little return. Last’s season’s effort, shortened by a sprained foot, will no doubt scare off many who were once on his bandwagon. That opens up a window of opportunity to those ready to take the chance again and roll with DMC in 2012.

Oh, people will cry, “oh, but it’s the dreaded ‘Lisfranc‘ sprain. Those are career killers”. But the fact it didn’t require surgery points to a conclusion that is was a mild variety of Lisfranc sprain. He’s been explosive in OTA’s so far and cutting well. The cutting well is the major news here to consider. He’s healed up and ready. The sprain is last year’s news that many are going to cling to. It’s in DMC’s rear view mirror. When fantasy drafts see DMC drop to you, you have a question you need to consider: Do you want to follow the sheep that pass on him, or the wolf that pounces on the value he provides if he drops to you?

Let’s consider his offensive surroundings: New head coach, new coordinator, west coast offense, ZBS blocking scheme. An emerging wide receiver crew, a solid offensive line, and a quality starting QB that he has yet to play on the same field with. This was a top 10 offense last year, and it’s fair to say it has room to improve with a franchise QB and a full offseason. New OC Gregg Knapp’s WCO is built to take deep shots while emphasizing the ground attack. It did wonders for UDFA Arian Foster, and it should make for McFadden being the centerpiece of a powerhouse offense.

But fantasy football people are superstitious folk. They cling to their rabbit’s feet and believe that a player may have some sort of gypsy curse on them. Well I for one don’t believe in gypsy curses. I believe in good old fashioned bad luck. And luck goes in circles. And it’s time for some good luck. It’s time for Darren McFadden to have a career year. He’s not yet 25 years old and in excellent health. I’m banking on a great season and capturing value as he drops to me as my RB2.

2012 Projection:

15 games played, 312 carries, 1620 yards, 9 TD’s; 56 receptions, 610 yards, 6 TD’s

 

[LawFitz]

There isn’t as maligned a back in all of fantasy football as Darren McFadden. The stat junkie will point to the career stats and say he’s not in the elite class. Instead of relying on the “eyeball” test, they value lesser RB’s accumulation of numbers behind strong offensive lines. The stat junkie will never comprehend that on a talent level, Darren McFadden is top 2 in the league. That’s a special tier. Right there alongside ADP. There is a prevailing opinion in the media, blogs and in the shark pool that McFadden is made of glass. And to be fair, he’s missed his share of games over his first 4 years. Other than breakout 2010 season, his storyline reads of a player destined to pull up limp from some sort of ailment or another. It’s been his calling card. It’s very frustrating to fantasy owners to invest a high pick and get little return. Last’s season’s effort, shortened by a sprained foot, will no doubt scare off many who were once on his bandwagon. That opens up a window of opportunity to those ready to take the chance again and roll with DMC in 2012.Oh, people will cry, “oh, but it’s the dreaded ‘Lisfranc‘ sprain. Those are career killers”. But the fact it didn’t require surgery points to a conclusion that is was a mild variety of Lisfranc sprain. He’s been explosive in OTA’s so far and cutting well. The cutting well is the major news here to consider. He’s healed up and ready. The sprain is last year’s news that many are going to cling to. It’s in DMC’s rear view mirror. When fantasy drafts see DMC drop to you, you have a question you need to consider: Do you want to follow the sheep that pass on him, or the wolf that pounces on the value he provides if he drops to you? Let’s consider his offensive surroundings: New head coach, new coordinator, west coast offense, ZBS blocking scheme. An emerging wide receiver crew, a solid offensive line, and a quality starting QB that he has yet to play on the same field with. This was a top 10 offense last year, and it’s fair to say it has room to improve with a franchise QB and a full offseason. New OC Gregg Knapp’s WCO is built to take deep shots while emphasizing the ground attack. It did wonders for UDFA Arian Foster, and it should make for McFadden being the centerpiece of a powerhouse offense. But fantasy football people are superstitious folk. They cling to their rabbit’s feet and believe that a player may have some sort of gypsy curse on them. Well I for one don’t believe in gypsy curses. I believe in good old fashioned bad luck. And luck goes in circles. And it’s time for some good luck. It’s time for Darren McFadden to have a career year. He’s not yet 25 years old and in excellent health. I’m banking on a great season and capturing value as he drops to me as my RB2. 2012 Projection:15 games played, 312 carries, 1620 yards, 9 TD’s; 56 receptions, 610 yards, 6 TD’s

DMC had problems with the ZBS last time it was in Oakland. A big part of Oakland's proficiency on offense went out the door possibly with the departure of Hue Jackson.I'm not at all a fan of Greg Knapp, the new OC.All reasons to be wary of DMC beyond the obvious injury concerns.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

DMC had problems with the ZBS last time it was in Oakland. A big part of Oakland's proficiency on offense went out the door possibly with the departure of Hue Jackson.I'm not at all a fan of Greg Knapp, the new OC.All reasons to be wary of DMC beyond the obvious injury concerns.

First, lets look at that OL from McFaddens younger days. That OL was a sieve both run blocking and protecting the passer in no way can you compare it to the current offensive line.Henderson/Harris, Gallery, Satele/Wade, Carlisle, Green/Barnes <<<< Veldheer, Carlisle/Bergstrom, Wiz II, Brisiel, Barnes/BarksdaleNext, consider that McFadden was working with Jamarcus Russell at QB. Who would you rather have at QB? Russell or Palmer? Which one do you think opens up the offense and running lanes? Consider that for all the great games McFadden has had over the years, he never played alongside a true franchise QB like Palmer. A QB that defenses respect has a significant bearing on McFaddens success, would you agree or disagree?Finally, and this is from personal observation, McFadden runs lower than he did before. His upright running style coming into the league was toxic in the ZBS. He has become more patient and his all-around inside running skills have developed since those rookie years in the old ZBS. He was always gifted, but now has fully developed his craft........Just about to hit send, but I have another parting shot. Gregg Knapps WCO was not the same as Tom Cables. It took a lot more shots downfield and turned a UDFA running back (Arian Foster) into a star in this league. Even back in Knapps previous tenure with Oakland, he fabricated a 1,000 yard rusher out of a barely average RB (Justin Fargas). I think we can all agree that Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas dont belong in the same sentence.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

DMC's per start averages in 2010 and 2001? 121.6 YFS and 1 TD. His supporting cast is easily the best it's ever been and he's likely entering his physical prime. I was a non-believer in him coming out of college, but I've seen more than enough to convince me he's as good as any RB in the NFL.

I'd take him as RB4 overall; unfortunately I think that's about where he'll be going in August after he shows he's healthy in camp and the preseason. Obviously anyone getting him in the late 1st or 2nd should be thrilled.

260 - 1300 rushing, 50 - 450 receiving, 12 TDs likely

300 - 1600 rushing, 60 - 600 receiving, 20 TD upside if he stays totally healthy and the Raiders' offense gels quickly

 

[Jason Wood]

McFadden reminds me a lot of another Raider -- Bo Jackson. There was no question when watching Jackson that he was capable of greatness, and in fact we sometimes got glimpses of that greatness. But when push came to shove, Bo was rarely ELITE, at least for any particular length of time. A lot of his issues related to the way he was used and the fact he played baseball too, but it took a generation for people to stop including Bo in their short lists of best running backs -- which always struck me as insane.

What does Bo have to do with McFadden? I'm looking at the posts in here, and compiling the projections, and seeing his ADP and wondering...why does this guy get a pass when people are so quick to knock other RBs down for much less? Go check the Ryan Mathews spotlight. There are people saying they'll avoid him because of his "injury history." Go check the Steven Jackson and Frank Gore threads...people want to pass on them because this MIGHT be the year when Father Time catches up. Check other threads and you'll see similar instances when RBs that have done much more than McFadden are being given far less benefit of the doubt.

Is McFadden supremely talented? Yes. But so what? We fantasy owners value production above all else.

113, 104, 223, 113 -- That's his season attempts in four years. In FOUR YEARS he's had 113 or fewer attempts three times. Yet this is magically going to be the year when he's a workhorse. Really?

I just don't get it. I won't even mention that he's got 13 fumbles (vs 16 TDs) in just 553 career rushing attempts.

I just don't see it. If there's one guy in the consensus first round that I won't touch with a 30-foot pole, it's DMC. But I sure hope everyone else does, because it assures that another player i covet had a better chance of falling to me.

 

[Tau837]

McFadden reminds me a lot of another Raider -- Bo Jackson. There was no question when watching Jackson that he was capable of greatness, and in fact we sometimes got glimpses of that greatness. But when push came to shove, Bo was rarely ELITE, at least for any particular length of time. A lot of his issues related to the way he was used and the fact he played baseball too, but it took a generation for people to stop including Bo in their short lists of best running backs -- which always struck me as insane.What does Bo have to do with McFadden? I'm looking at the posts in here, and compiling the projections, and seeing his ADP and wondering...why does this guy get a pass when people are so quick to knock other RBs down for much less? Go check the Ryan Mathews spotlight. There are people saying they'll avoid him because of his "injury history." Go check the Steven Jackson and Frank Gore threads...people want to pass on them because this MIGHT be the year when Father Time catches up. Check other threads and you'll see similar instances when RBs that have done much more than McFadden are being given far less benefit of the doubt.Is McFadden supremely talented? Yes. But so what? We fantasy owners value production above all else.113, 104, 223, 113 -- That's his season attempts in four years. In FOUR YEARS he's had 113 or fewer attempts three times. Yet this is magically going to be the year when he's a workhorse. Really? I just don't get it. I won't even mention that he's got 13 fumbles (vs 16 TDs) in just 553 career rushing attempts.I just don't see it. If there's one guy in the consensus first round that I won't touch with a 30-foot pole, it's DMC. But I sure hope everyone else does, because it assures that another player i covet had a better chance of falling to me.

The simple fact is that the only reason to treat McFadden as you are suggesting -- to draft him based on his past performance rather than on his talent and potential -- is his injury history.Jason, are you projecting McFadden to miss games due to injury this season? How many games are you projecting him to miss?

 

[sjdogs]

Very intriguing player at end of round one bc if he somehow stays healthy will be top 3 rb Little reason to believe he will play 16 but never know

I like everyone else love his upside

 

[az_prof]

There isn’t as maligned a back in all of fantasy football as Darren McFadden. The stat junkie will point to the career stats and say he’s not in the elite class. Instead of relying on the “eyeball” test, they value lesser RB’s accumulation of numbers behind strong offensive lines. The stat junkie will never comprehend that on a talent level, Darren McFadden is top 2 in the league. That’s a special tier. Right there alongside ADP. There is a prevailing opinion in the media, blogs and in the shark pool that McFadden is made of glass. And to be fair, he’s missed his share of games over his first 4 years. Other than breakout 2010 season, his storyline reads of a player destined to pull up limp from some sort of ailment or another. It’s been his calling card. It’s very frustrating to fantasy owners to invest a high pick and get little return. Last’s season’s effort, shortened by a sprained foot, will no doubt scare off many who were once on his bandwagon. That opens up a window of opportunity to those ready to take the chance again and roll with DMC in 2012.Oh, people will cry, “oh, but it’s the dreaded ‘Lisfranc‘ sprain. Those are career killers”. But the fact it didn’t require surgery points to a conclusion that is was a mild variety of Lisfranc sprain. He’s been explosive in OTA’s so far and cutting well. The cutting well is the major news here to consider. He’s healed up and ready. The sprain is last year’s news that many are going to cling to. It’s in DMC’s rear view mirror. When fantasy drafts see DMC drop to you, you have a question you need to consider: Do you want to follow the sheep that pass on him, or the wolf that pounces on the value he provides if he drops to you? Let’s consider his offensive surroundings: New head coach, new coordinator, west coast offense, ZBS blocking scheme. An emerging wide receiver crew, a solid offensive line, and a quality starting QB that he has yet to play on the same field with. This was a top 10 offense last year, and it’s fair to say it has room to improve with a franchise QB and a full offseason. New OC Gregg Knapp’s WCO is built to take deep shots while emphasizing the ground attack. It did wonders for UDFA Arian Foster, and it should make for McFadden being the centerpiece of a powerhouse offense. But fantasy football people are superstitious folk. They cling to their rabbit’s feet and believe that a player may have some sort of gypsy curse on them. Well I for one don’t believe in gypsy curses. I believe in good old fashioned bad luck. And luck goes in circles. And it’s time for some good luck. It’s time for Darren McFadden to have a career year. He’s not yet 25 years old and in excellent health. I’m banking on a great season and capturing value as he drops to me as my RB2. 2012 Projection:15 games played, 312 carries, 1620 yards, 9 TD’s; 56 receptions, 610 yards, 6 TD’s

DMC had problems with the ZBS last time it was in Oakland. A big part of Oakland's proficiency on offense went out the door possibly with the departure of Hue Jackson.I'm not at all a fan of Greg Knapp, the new OC.All reasons to be wary of DMC beyond the obvious injury concerns.

Agree with all of this and would add one more: Palmer is not a great franchise QB. He is an average QB at this point in his career.

 

[Tau837]

There isn’t as maligned a back in all of fantasy football as Darren McFadden. The stat junkie will point to the career stats and say he’s not in the elite class. Instead of relying on the “eyeball” test, they value lesser RB’s accumulation of numbers behind strong offensive lines. The stat junkie will never comprehend that on a talent level, Darren McFadden is top 2 in the league. That’s a special tier. Right there alongside ADP. There is a prevailing opinion in the media, blogs and in the shark pool that McFadden is made of glass. And to be fair, he’s missed his share of games over his first 4 years. Other than breakout 2010 season, his storyline reads of a player destined to pull up limp from some sort of ailment or another. It’s been his calling card. It’s very frustrating to fantasy owners to invest a high pick and get little return. Last’s season’s effort, shortened by a sprained foot, will no doubt scare off many who were once on his bandwagon. That opens up a window of opportunity to those ready to take the chance again and roll with DMC in 2012.Oh, people will cry, “oh, but it’s the dreaded ‘Lisfranc‘ sprain. Those are career killers”. But the fact it didn’t require surgery points to a conclusion that is was a mild variety of Lisfranc sprain. He’s been explosive in OTA’s so far and cutting well. The cutting well is the major news here to consider. He’s healed up and ready. The sprain is last year’s news that many are going to cling to. It’s in DMC’s rear view mirror. When fantasy drafts see DMC drop to you, you have a question you need to consider: Do you want to follow the sheep that pass on him, or the wolf that pounces on the value he provides if he drops to you? Let’s consider his offensive surroundings: New head coach, new coordinator, west coast offense, ZBS blocking scheme. An emerging wide receiver crew, a solid offensive line, and a quality starting QB that he has yet to play on the same field with. This was a top 10 offense last year, and it’s fair to say it has room to improve with a franchise QB and a full offseason. New OC Gregg Knapp’s WCO is built to take deep shots while emphasizing the ground attack. It did wonders for UDFA Arian Foster, and it should make for McFadden being the centerpiece of a powerhouse offense. But fantasy football people are superstitious folk. They cling to their rabbit’s feet and believe that a player may have some sort of gypsy curse on them. Well I for one don’t believe in gypsy curses. I believe in good old fashioned bad luck. And luck goes in circles. And it’s time for some good luck. It’s time for Darren McFadden to have a career year. He’s not yet 25 years old and in excellent health. I’m banking on a great season and capturing value as he drops to me as my RB2. 2012 Projection:15 games played, 312 carries, 1620 yards, 9 TD’s; 56 receptions, 610 yards, 6 TD’s

DMC had problems with the ZBS last time it was in Oakland. A big part of Oakland's proficiency on offense went out the door possibly with the departure of Hue Jackson.I'm not at all a fan of Greg Knapp, the new OC.All reasons to be wary of DMC beyond the obvious injury concerns.

Agree with all of this and would add one more: Palmer is not a great franchise QB. He is an average QB at this point in his career.

How do you feel Palmer (at this point in his career) compares to the other QBs that have started during McFadden's career?I think he is at least a mild upgrade.

 

[jurb26]

McFadden reminds me a lot of another Raider -- Bo Jackson. There was no question when watching Jackson that he was capable of greatness, and in fact we sometimes got glimpses of that greatness. But when push came to shove, Bo was rarely ELITE, at least for any particular length of time. A lot of his issues related to the way he was used and the fact he played baseball too, but it took a generation for people to stop including Bo in their short lists of best running backs -- which always struck me as insane.What does Bo have to do with McFadden? I'm looking at the posts in here, and compiling the projections, and seeing his ADP and wondering...why does this guy get a pass when people are so quick to knock other RBs down for much less? Go check the Ryan Mathews spotlight. There are people saying they'll avoid him because of his "injury history." Go check the Steven Jackson and Frank Gore threads...people want to pass on them because this MIGHT be the year when Father Time catches up. Check other threads and you'll see similar instances when RBs that have done much more than McFadden are being given far less benefit of the doubt.Is McFadden supremely talented? Yes. But so what? We fantasy owners value production above all else.113, 104, 223, 113 -- That's his season attempts in four years. In FOUR YEARS he's had 113 or fewer attempts three times. Yet this is magically going to be the year when he's a workhorse. Really? I just don't get it. I won't even mention that he's got 13 fumbles (vs 16 TDs) in just 553 career rushing attempts.I just don't see it. If there's one guy in the consensus first round that I won't touch with a 30-foot pole, it's DMC. But I sure hope everyone else does, because it assures that another player i covet had a better chance of falling to me.

The reason the tone of those other players conversations are so different from McFadden is because of one simple word, potential. None of the players you listed in your post have remotely the potential of McFadden. McFadden has a legit chance to be the #1 RB and player in fantasy at virtually any time, health permiting. He is far more talented at this point of his career than any of the other RB you listed. Jackson may be close, but his age and work load have taken a bit out of him it seems. Also, his team is awful.The bottom line is that McFadden can wins fantasy players weeks or even several weeks at a time on a regular basis when he is healthy. He produces at an elite level, when he is on the field. It's a chance worth taking in comparision to the guys you listed.

 

[SWC]

palmer is a good qb and makes his rb look good when they are healthy and he has a good set of wrs which he has now remember rudy and benson when they were right palmer made them look awesome so i expect that having palmaid around will make darren the dominator mcnasty look really good this year assuming he can actually stay out of the infirmary so i say something like 1400 rushing 15 rushing tds now that michael the wideload bush is gone and will not vulutre and probably 600 yards catching the ball and another 5 tds that way and 2 scores of over 50 yards for the year and 1 of them on a play involving trickery take that to the bank brohans

 

[Raiderfan32904]

McFadden reminds me a lot of another Raider -- Bo Jackson. There was no question when watching Jackson that he was capable of greatness, and in fact we sometimes got glimpses of that greatness. But when push came to shove, Bo was rarely ELITE, at least for any particular length of time. A lot of his issues related to the way he was used and the fact he played baseball too, but it took a generation for people to stop including Bo in their short lists of best running backs -- which always struck me as insane.

The comparison to Bo Jackson is off base. Bo had a brilliant but injury shortened career, and he was ELITE in the games he played. In my book, that means a lot more than a career of good production that is packaged as being HOF worthy. Fantasy football metrics fail in the attempt to parcel numbers and attribute greatness discount the “wow” factor of his plays. Why do fantasy geeks have to categorize everything by the numbers? It’s like appreciating a fine sculpture only in two dimensions. Bo had a once-in-a-generation type resume of highlights that transcended the inane sets of career statistics of other lesser backs. He gave us the kind of plays that bring to mind conversations like, “Where were you when you saw Bo’s 90 yard TD at Seattle when he turned the corner and ran right passed the defense and out of the Seahawk end zone to the lockers? Where were you when he bowled over Bosworth at the one yard line?” Or the legendary hand timed 4.12 40 yard dash? He was a physical freak of nature. While other HOF backs accumulated stats, Bo was like a falling star, and for the short era he played, you gaped at the spectacle without trying to question it or understand it. That is what true greatness is. It’s why he’ll be remembered generations from now over other HOF backs in his era. He had a rare gift, only truly appreciated by those who allowed themselves to be a kid at heart and gape in awe of the game’s great moments.

 

[todisco1]

McFadden reminds me a lot of another Raider -- Bo Jackson. There was no question when watching Jackson that he was capable of greatness, and in fact we sometimes got glimpses of that greatness. But when push came to shove, Bo was rarely ELITE, at least for any particular length of time. A lot of his issues related to the way he was used and the fact he played baseball too, but it took a generation for people to stop including Bo in their short lists of best running backs -- which always struck me as insane.

The comparison to Bo Jackson is off base. Bo had a brilliant but injury shortened career, and he was ELITE in the games he played. In my book, that means a lot more than a career of good production that is packaged as being HOF worthy. Fantasy football metrics fail in the attempt to parcel numbers and attribute greatness discount the “wow” factor of his plays. Why do fantasy geeks have to categorize everything by the numbers? It’s like appreciating a fine sculpture only in two dimensions. Bo had a once-in-a-generation type resume of highlights that transcended the inane sets of career statistics of other lesser backs. He gave us the kind of plays that bring to mind conversations like, “Where were you when you saw Bo’s 90 yard TD at Seattle when he turned the corner and ran right passed the defense and out of the Seahawk end zone to the lockers? Where were you when he bowled over Bosworth at the one yard line?” Or the legendary hand timed 4.12 40 yard dash? He was a physical freak of nature. While other HOF backs accumulated stats, Bo was like a falling star, and for the short era he played, you gaped at the spectacle without trying to question it or understand it. That is what true greatness is. It’s why he’ll be remembered generations from now over other HOF backs in his era. He had a rare gift, only truly appreciated by those who allowed themselves to be a kid at heart and gape in awe of the game’s great moments.

I agree with this, but his career was way too short and he just wasn't used enough to solidify himself as an all time great. He's the ultimate "what if" to me, but I would never put him in with other great RBs because he just wasn't around long enough. Would have absolutely loved to see him and Barry and Emmitt in their primes vying for best RB of an era, but it just wasn't to be. As for McFadden, the reason you take him early is upside. He has the talent to be the #1 fantasy RB, but his injuries are a major concern. If you're a risktaker you grab him, if you crave reliability, you go in a different direction.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

What does Bo have to do with McFadden? I'm looking at the posts in here, and compiling the projections, and seeing his ADP and wondering...why does this guy get a pass when people are so quick to knock other RBs down for much less? Go check the Ryan Mathews spotlight. There are people saying they'll avoid him because of his "injury history." Go check the Steven Jackson and Frank Gore threads...people want to pass on them because this MIGHT be the year when Father Time catches up. Check other threads and you'll see similar instances when RBs that have done much more than McFadden are being given far less benefit of the doubt.

People are still passing on McFadden because of his injury history. Don’t frame your opinion on expectations or ADP on the comments in this thread. This is a very small sample of opinions. Of course drafting Darren McFadden comes with risk! We all know that and include it in our thought process and decision making. The other backs you mention also have injury concerns, or age concerns. But none of them is the physical beast that McFadden is. He is ELITE when he plays. Those other fellows are not. Also, McFadden is 25 years old this season so throw out any comparison to aging vets like Steven Jackson or Frank Gore. He’s still just entering his prime. Why wouldn’t anyone want to have a part of a RB that is ELITE and a BEAST and young? Injury concerns considered, he has the potential to carry fantasy teams to CHAMPIONSHIPS if he only remains healthy. Another thing to consider is that he really has no competition for the lead back position and the RB’s behind him are strictly depth or change of pace backs. He’s going to be a HUGE part of the Raiders offense this year both running and receiving in on all parts of the field, between the 20’s and at the goal line. Plus he is an excellent receiving back who Carson Palmer can trust with the outlet pass. He’s in line for a monster year. The only thing that can stop him is injuries. But tell me which running back is immune to injuries? All of them get dinged up and are sidelined from time to time. What we do know right now is that Darren McFadden is HEALTHY and there is no way to predict injuries. Right? So in the end, we all go with our gut. You want to pass on him, feel free. Trust your gut. I won’t criticize your instincts, but I think the comparisons to other lesser talented RB’s falls short. Of those mentioned, none of them have Darren McFadden's upside.

 

[Jason Wood]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.

As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

 

[jurb26]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Yes it does. If McFadden had a clean bill of health he'd be the #1 player taken. His injury concerns have basically devalued him by a full round.

 

[PhantomJB]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Yes it does. If McFadden had a clean bill of health he'd be the #1 player taken. His injury concerns have basically devalued him by a full round.

ETA: Sorry. Just realized it was a Spotlight thread where Good Postings are discouraged.I just believe jurb's comment is the central point many are missing. Now that Peterson has gone down, McFadden is the best RB in football playing on a good offensive team where is the bell cow back. Compared to the rest of the RB's behind him in ADP he screams value.

 

[Jason Wood]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Yes it does. If McFadden had a clean bill of health he'd be the #1 player taken. His injury concerns have basically devalued him by a full round.

The #1 player taken? Based on what?He was the 14th player drafted and RB9 LAST YEAR coming off his one legitimately strong season. http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2011/adp

 

[King of the Jungle]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Just curious, where would McFadden have to fall in a redraft in order for you to take a chance on him?

 

[Jason Wood]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Just curious, where would McFadden have to fall in a redraft in order for you to take a chance on him?

No offense to you King, but those questions always put me off. I have grave concerns he disappoints, and realistically he won't fall far enough in any league for me to be excited about him.

 

[jurb26]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Yes it does. If McFadden had a clean bill of health he'd be the #1 player taken. His injury concerns have basically devalued him by a full round.

The #1 player taken? Based on what?He was the 14th player drafted and RB9 LAST YEAR coming off his one legitimately strong season. http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2011/adp

Based off the premise that when he's healthy, he performs as the best player in fantasy. Or at least darn close to it. He is perhpas the most physically dominating RB in the NFL right now, again when healthy. He is the central focus of his offense and heavily used in the passing game... when healthy. He is also unquestioned in his role as the lead RB on his team... when healthy. If I know I could get a full game out of all of the RBs in the NFL there is no player I'd rather have for that one game over McFadden. It seems many others feel this same way. It's really just that simple.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

He is perhpas the most physically dominating RB in the NFL right now, again when healthy. He is the central focus of his offense and heavily used in the passing game... when healthy. He is also unquestioned in his role as the lead RB on his team... when healthy. If I know I could get a full game out of all of the RBs in the NFL there is no player I'd rather have for that one game over McFadden. It seems many others feel this same way. It's really just that simple.

Agreed. In that close context, I'd not choose any ONE BACK in football for ONE GAME than Darren McFadden. He's as PHYSICALLY GIFTED as any running back in football, and he's a HUGE part of his offenses gameplan. Also, consider his body of work has come at the helm of offenses saddled with gawd awful or mediocre QB's who couldn't complete the deep throw like Carson Palmer can. What will a complete offseason of work with a rejuvenated veteran QB of the caliber of Carson Palmer do for Darren McFadden's game? I guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

[King of the Jungle]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Just curious, where would McFadden have to fall in a redraft in order for you to take a chance on him?

No offense to you King, but those questions always put me off. I have grave concerns he disappoints, and realistically he won't fall far enough in any league for me to be excited about him.

No problem with me. Just wondered at what point he became worth taking a chance on in your book. I tend to share the same opinion of McFadden as you. He is a difference maker in your lineup when he is healthy however he has not been healthy enough to be an asset to a FF team. For me he would have look fantastic in preseason with no setbacks and be available in the late 3rd/early 4th (which will not happen).

 

[jurb26]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Just curious, where would McFadden have to fall in a redraft in order for you to take a chance on him?

No offense to you King, but those questions always put me off. I have grave concerns he disappoints, and realistically he won't fall far enough in any league for me to be excited about him.

Outside of injury, what grave concerns are there?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.

As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Just curious, where would McFadden have to fall in a redraft in order for you to take a chance on him?

No offense to you King, but those questions always put me off. I have grave concerns he disappoints, and realistically he won't fall far enough in any league for me to be excited about him.

Outside of injury, what grave concerns are there?

Grave concern singular is transparent. Grave concern(s) plural smells of an agenda.

 

[Jason Wood]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Just curious, where would McFadden have to fall in a redraft in order for you to take a chance on him?

No offense to you King, but those questions always put me off. I have grave concerns he disappoints, and realistically he won't fall far enough in any league for me to be excited about him.

Outside of injury, what grave concerns are there?

The injury history is the grave concern. When a guy has been in the league four seasons and had 113 or fewer carries in three of them, he gets crossed of my list. Doesn't mean he won't be on others boards, but DMC is off mine.

 

[Silver & Black]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Just curious, where would McFadden have to fall in a redraft in order for you to take a chance on him?

No offense to you King, but those questions always put me off. I have grave concerns he disappoints, and realistically he won't fall far enough in any league for me to be excited about him.

I think you are way off base with your analysis and thought process here. I only hope many others are thinking along the same lines for draft purposes.In the end, injury is certainly a concern for McFadden. Just like every other RB out there. However, everything points to his being completely healed and looking amazing on the field. Quick, lots of burst and no side effects from the foot injury from last year, which it is important to note did not require surgery to repair. I don't believe any of the injuries he has sustained are chronic in nature and are necessarily a cause for aggravation or lingering effects in the future. IMO, he has simply had bad luck with the injuries and now that he is fully healed, he stands the same chance of getting hurt or staying healthy as every other back in the league.The main difference is, and the point I think you are overlooking, is that when he is healthy, he is a beast. A once in a lifetime talent that can take over a game at any time. When healthy, he has the potential to catch a truck load of balls and when he gets the ball in space, watch out! Watching him early on last year, when healthy, he was clearly the best back in the league...yes he was better than Foster and AP. No doubt.Obviously, I am a Raiders fan and my opinion is no doubt colored by being a fan. But that doesn't necessarily change anything. How many people missed the boat on a few good years from Fred Taylor because he was labeled as "fragile Freddy" for a while? I think McFadden is special. A premier back with elite talent. I would treat him no differently than any other bak in the league when preparing for my draft ane wouldn't hold his injury history against him, if for no other reason than because he has looked so electric and healthy so far this year. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Tau837]

DMC's per start averages in 2010 and 2001? 121.6 YFS and 1 TD. His supporting cast is easily the best it's ever been and he's likely entering his physical prime. I was a non-believer in him coming out of college, but I've seen more than enough to convince me he's as good as any RB in the NFL.I'd take him as RB4 overall; unfortunately I think that's about where he'll be going in August after he shows he's healthy in camp and the preseason. Obviously anyone getting him in the late 1st or 2nd should be thrilled.260 - 1300 rushing, 50 - 450 receiving, 12 TDs likely300 - 1600 rushing, 60 - 600 receiving, 20 TD upside if he stays totally healthy and the Raiders' offense gels quickly

 

[Tau837]

In the end, injury is certainly a concern for McFadden. Just like every other RB out there. However, everything points to his being completely healed and looking amazing on the field. Quick, lots of burst and no side effects from the foot injury from last year, which it is important to note did not require surgery to repair. I don't believe any of the injuries he has sustained are chronic in nature and are necessarily a cause for aggravation or lingering effects in the future. IMO, he has simply had bad luck with the injuries and now that he is fully healed, he stands the same chance of getting hurt or staying healthy as every other back in the league.The main difference is, and the point I think you are overlooking, is that when he is healthy, he is a beast. A once in a lifetime talent that can take over a game at any time. When healthy, he has the potential to catch a truck load of balls and when he gets the ball in space, watch out! Watching him early on last year, when healthy, he was clearly the best back in the league...yes he was better than Foster and AP. No doubt.Obviously, I am a Raiders fan and my opinion is no doubt colored by being a fan. But that doesn't necessarily change anything. How many people missed the boat on a few good years from Fred Taylor because he was labeled as "fragile Freddy" for a while? I think McFadden is special. A premier back with elite talent. I would treat him no differently than any other bak in the league when preparing for my draft ane wouldn't hold his injury history against him, if for no other reason than because he has looked so electric and healthy so far this year.

This is a great post. IMO too many people get caught up in past results when trying to project. IMO there is no predictive value in McFadden's past injuries, and he should be projected based on playing the same number of games as every other RB. Which means he should be projected as a top 5 RB.

 

[jurb26]

In the true spirit of the thread, here are my projections;

320 carries, 1555 yds, 13 TDs

65 receptions, 555 yds, 3 TDs

This assumes a full 16 games.

132 total yds per game, 1 TD per game.

 

[Jason Wood]

In the end, injury is certainly a concern for McFadden. Just like every other RB out there. However, everything points to his being completely healed and looking amazing on the field. Quick, lots of burst and no side effects from the foot injury from last year, which it is important to note did not require surgery to repair. I don't believe any of the injuries he has sustained are chronic in nature and are necessarily a cause for aggravation or lingering effects in the future. IMO, he has simply had bad luck with the injuries and now that he is fully healed, he stands the same chance of getting hurt or staying healthy as every other back in the league.The main difference is, and the point I think you are overlooking, is that when he is healthy, he is a beast. A once in a lifetime talent that can take over a game at any time. When healthy, he has the potential to catch a truck load of balls and when he gets the ball in space, watch out! Watching him early on last year, when healthy, he was clearly the best back in the league...yes he was better than Foster and AP. No doubt.Obviously, I am a Raiders fan and my opinion is no doubt colored by being a fan. But that doesn't necessarily change anything. How many people missed the boat on a few good years from Fred Taylor because he was labeled as "fragile Freddy" for a while? I think McFadden is special. A premier back with elite talent. I would treat him no differently than any other bak in the league when preparing for my draft ane wouldn't hold his injury history against him, if for no other reason than because he has looked so electric and healthy so far this year.

This is a great post. IMO too many people get caught up in past results when trying to project. IMO there is no predictive value in McFadden's past injuries, and he should be projected based on playing the same number of games as every other RB. Which means he should be projected as a top 5 RB.

I disagree. At some point the baseline has to incorporate what we've seen. If a guy misses a season, or a chunk, you can discount it. But McFadden has found myriad reasons to be off the field. Again we're not talking about a kid who had a major injury and missed a big chunk of time. We're also not talking about a runner who has yet to have a MONSTER season but has otherwise given you 200-225-240 carry seasons. We're talking about a guy with three years of less than part-time carries.

 

[PhantomJB]

In the end, injury is certainly a concern for McFadden. Just like every other RB out there. However, everything points to his being completely healed and looking amazing on the field. Quick, lots of burst and no side effects from the foot injury from last year, which it is important to note did not require surgery to repair. I don't believe any of the injuries he has sustained are chronic in nature and are necessarily a cause for aggravation or lingering effects in the future. IMO, he has simply had bad luck with the injuries and now that he is fully healed, he stands the same chance of getting hurt or staying healthy as every other back in the league.The main difference is, and the point I think you are overlooking, is that when he is healthy, he is a beast. A once in a lifetime talent that can take over a game at any time. When healthy, he has the potential to catch a truck load of balls and when he gets the ball in space, watch out! Watching him early on last year, when healthy, he was clearly the best back in the league...yes he was better than Foster and AP. No doubt.Obviously, I am a Raiders fan and my opinion is no doubt colored by being a fan. But that doesn't necessarily change anything. How many people missed the boat on a few good years from Fred Taylor because he was labeled as "fragile Freddy" for a while? I think McFadden is special. A premier back with elite talent. I would treat him no differently than any other bak in the league when preparing for my draft ane wouldn't hold his injury history against him, if for no other reason than because he has looked so electric and healthy so far this year.

This is a great post. IMO too many people get caught up in past results when trying to project. IMO there is no predictive value in McFadden's past injuries, and he should be projected based on playing the same number of games as every other RB. Which means he should be projected as a top 5 RB.

I disagree. At some point the baseline has to incorporate what we've seen. If a guy misses a season, or a chunk, you can discount it. But McFadden has found myriad reasons to be off the field. Again we're not talking about a kid who had a major injury and missed a big chunk of time. We're also not talking about a runner who has yet to have a MONSTER season but has otherwise given you 200-225-240 carry seasons. We're talking about a guy with three years of less than part-time carries.

If that's the case then can you please explain why, in your FBG projections, you have Reggie Bush projected to play 16 games? In six seasons in the league, he has only played 16 games only once and for years was labeled injury-prone.Just seems to support what a lot of people are saying in here. That if a guy has been injured, people think he is an injury risk forever. At least until he has an injury-free season and then all of a sudden people forget about the past.As one of the above posters pointed out, none of DMC's past injuries appear chronic in nature and therefore at this point he has no more injury risk then anyone else unless you believe there is a black cloud hanging over him.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

...At some point the baseline has to incorporate what we've seen. If a guy misses a season, or a chunk, you can discount it. But McFadden has found myriad reasons to be off the field. Again we're not talking about a kid who had a major injury and missed a big chunk of time. We're also not talking about a runner who has yet to have a MONSTER season but has otherwise given you 200-225-240 carry seasons. We're talking about a guy with three years of less than part-time carries.

It sounds like you question McFadden’s toughness when you say he’s “found myriad reasons to be off the field”. Is that it? McFadden is unwilling to play through injury? Really? And why do you choose to point to only the 3 “part time” years and discount his relatively healthy 2010 campaign? That doesn’t seem fair. Let’s reset what we know. McFadden is 100% fully healthy right now, making all the cuts and displaying the world class speed in OTAs. He’s only 24 years old even though he seems like he’s been around forever. He’s just a pup. His skills on the field are ELITE and there is no real debate on this point. And none of his injuries are chronic in nature. So based on what we KNOW, and not what we BELIEVE on a gut feel, Darren McFadden is seriously being undervalued.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

In the end, injury is certainly a concern for McFadden. Just like every other RB out there. However, everything points to his being completely healed and looking amazing on the field. Quick, lots of burst and no side effects from the foot injury from last year, which it is important to note did not require surgery to repair. I don't believe any of the injuries he has sustained are chronic in nature and are necessarily a cause for aggravation or lingering effects in the future. IMO, he has simply had bad luck with the injuries and now that he is fully healed, he stands the same chance of getting hurt or staying healthy as every other back in the league.The main difference is, and the point I think you are overlooking, is that when he is healthy, he is a beast. A once in a lifetime talent that can take over a game at any time. When healthy, he has the potential to catch a truck load of balls and when he gets the ball in space, watch out! Watching him early on last year, when healthy, he was clearly the best back in the league...yes he was better than Foster and AP. No doubt.Obviously, I am a Raiders fan and my opinion is no doubt colored by being a fan. But that doesn't necessarily change anything. How many people missed the boat on a few good years from Fred Taylor because he was labeled as "fragile Freddy" for a while? I think McFadden is special. A premier back with elite talent. I would treat him no differently than any other bak in the league when preparing for my draft ane wouldn't hold his injury history against him, if for no other reason than because he has looked so electric and healthy so far this year.

This is a great post. IMO too many people get caught up in past results when trying to project. IMO there is no predictive value in McFadden's past injuries, and he should be projected based on playing the same number of games as every other RB. Which means he should be projected as a top 5 RB.

I disagree. At some point the baseline has to incorporate what we've seen. If a guy misses a season, or a chunk, you can discount it. But McFadden has found myriad reasons to be off the field. Again we're not talking about a kid who had a major injury and missed a big chunk of time. We're also not talking about a runner who has yet to have a MONSTER season but has otherwise given you 200-225-240 carry seasons. We're talking about a guy with three years of less than part-time carries.

This is a case of ignoring history dooms you to repeat it. Yes, reports have DMac being healthy, but for how long? Reports last year had him completely healthy at the same point. An injury one time can be dismissed, but this has happened every year of DMac's career, so it is a pattern. I think that there is something structurally that undermines DMac's durability. That said,I may pursue an explosive player strategy in some of my upcoming drafts that includes drafting DMac. But it is a HUGE gamble that history suggests you will lose.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I love McFadden, he is elite caliber when healthy. Once in a lifetime player? Well, I saw Barry Sanders and Walter Payton play in my lifetime, so I'm going to have to disagree with that

I'm in the camp that a guy who gets hurt every year will continue to do so, and discount accordingly. His injuries may be unrelated and none chronic, but the fact of the matter is that he's only been able to exceed 113 carries in a season once.

So that season (2010) will essentially be his high end for me, something like 225/1150/7, 45/500/3. That's high end RB1 territory. It's not his "ceiling" since it is not a 16g projection.

I'll be thinking more of last year's 115/600/4, 20/150/1 though. I'll probably end up somewhere in the middle meaning that he won't be on many of my teams.

 

[We Tigers]

McFadden is being drafted 13th overall and RB7...that hardly amounts to people passing on him because of injury.As to JWB's question, yes, I am assuming he misses games. My current projections have him at 12 games played.

Yes it does. If McFadden had a clean bill of health he'd be the #1 player taken. His injury concerns have basically devalued him by a full round.

The #1 player taken? Based on what?He was the 14th player drafted and RB9 LAST YEAR coming off his one legitimately strong season. http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2011/adp

I'd partly attribute that to the presence of Michael Bush. Bush was a known TD vulture, and of the 8 backs ahead of him only Charles was in a similar situation, and with a much less threatening backup.If McFadden didn't have an injury history, I think he'd be considered on par with the consensus top 3 RBs for 2012. That risk, whether you consider it valid or invalid, is definitely built into his price. RB7 might not seem like much of a discount, but when you're talking top 4 pick vs. end of the first round, I'd argue that it's sufficient.

 

[Jason Wood]

In the end, injury is certainly a concern for McFadden. Just like every other RB out there. However, everything points to his being completely healed and looking amazing on the field. Quick, lots of burst and no side effects from the foot injury from last year, which it is important to note did not require surgery to repair. I don't believe any of the injuries he has sustained are chronic in nature and are necessarily a cause for aggravation or lingering effects in the future. IMO, he has simply had bad luck with the injuries and now that he is fully healed, he stands the same chance of getting hurt or staying healthy as every other back in the league.The main difference is, and the point I think you are overlooking, is that when he is healthy, he is a beast. A once in a lifetime talent that can take over a game at any time. When healthy, he has the potential to catch a truck load of balls and when he gets the ball in space, watch out! Watching him early on last year, when healthy, he was clearly the best back in the league...yes he was better than Foster and AP. No doubt.Obviously, I am a Raiders fan and my opinion is no doubt colored by being a fan. But that doesn't necessarily change anything. How many people missed the boat on a few good years from Fred Taylor because he was labeled as "fragile Freddy" for a while? I think McFadden is special. A premier back with elite talent. I would treat him no differently than any other bak in the league when preparing for my draft ane wouldn't hold his injury history against him, if for no other reason than because he has looked so electric and healthy so far this year.

This is a great post. IMO too many people get caught up in past results when trying to project. IMO there is no predictive value in McFadden's past injuries, and he should be projected based on playing the same number of games as every other RB. Which means he should be projected as a top 5 RB.

I disagree. At some point the baseline has to incorporate what we've seen. If a guy misses a season, or a chunk, you can discount it. But McFadden has found myriad reasons to be off the field. Again we're not talking about a kid who had a major injury and missed a big chunk of time. We're also not talking about a runner who has yet to have a MONSTER season but has otherwise given you 200-225-240 carry seasons. We're talking about a guy with three years of less than part-time carries.

If that's the case then can you please explain why, in your FBG projections, you have Reggie Bush projected to play 16 games? In six seasons in the league, he has only played 16 games only once and for years was labeled injury-prone.Just seems to support what a lot of people are saying in here. That if a guy has been injured, people think he is an injury risk forever. At least until he has an injury-free season and then all of a sudden people forget about the past.As one of the above posters pointed out, none of DMC's past injuries appear chronic in nature and therefore at this point he has no more injury risk then anyone else unless you believe there is a black cloud hanging over him.

Actually that's a good catch. I have him playing 14 games, I need to get that corrected in the database.

 

[Jason Wood]

...At some point the baseline has to incorporate what we've seen. If a guy misses a season, or a chunk, you can discount it. But McFadden has found myriad reasons to be off the field. Again we're not talking about a kid who had a major injury and missed a big chunk of time. We're also not talking about a runner who has yet to have a MONSTER season but has otherwise given you 200-225-240 carry seasons. We're talking about a guy with three years of less than part-time carries.

It sounds like you question McFadden’s toughness when you say he’s “found myriad reasons to be off the field”. Is that it? McFadden is unwilling to play through injury? Really? And why do you choose to point to only the 3 “part time” years and discount his relatively healthy 2010 campaign? That doesn’t seem fair.Let’s reset what we know. McFadden is 100% fully healthy right now, making all the cuts and displaying the world class speed in OTAs. He’s only 24 years old even though he seems like he’s been around forever. He’s just a pup. His skills on the field are ELITE and there is no real debate on this point. And none of his injuries are chronic in nature.

So based on what we KNOW, and not what we BELIEVE on a gut feel, Darren McFadden is seriously being undervalued.

Let me remind you of what we "knew" this time last year:Darren McFadden is reportedly making defenders miss "on a routine basis" early in Raiders camp and blowing by tacklers "with ease."

McFadden reported to camp looking like a chiseled specimen, and it's translated to practices. Beat writer Steve Corkran "wouldn't be surprised" if McFadden improved upon his breakout 2010 season. He's a late first-round fantasy pick.

Source: Oakland Tribune Mon, Aug 1, 2011 12:48:00 PM

Darren McFadden reportedly looked to be in tip-top physical condition upon reporting to Raiders camp on Wednesday.

Beat writer Steve Corkran described McFadden as having the "look of a man who hasn’t missed a day of workouts since last season ended." McFadden told reporters that he has "big goals set for this year" coming off a breakout 2010 campaign. Coach Hue Jackson has hinted that McFadden will be his offensive centerpiece after topping 114 total yards in 10-of-13 games last year.

Source: Oakland Tribune Wed, Jul 27, 2011 07:03:00 PM

Raiders coach Hue Jackson expects Darren McFadden to "build" on last year's breakout season.

Certainly not major news, but it's our first McFadden update since the end of the season. Jackson is building his offense around McFadden's diverse talents as a runner and receiver, so the former No. 4 overall pick is a good bet for 300 touches if he can manage to stay out of the trainer's room.

Source: San Francisco Chronicle Sun, Jun 26, 2011 02:44:00 PM

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Based on those reports, Darren McFadden was a consensus middle of the first round pick last year. And he started out of the gate looking like a really good investment. But we all know the rest and the mid foot sprain derailed his season. Why the revisionist history here?

Isn’t this time of year the appropriate time to forecast fantasy production rather than be stuck in the past? Does this history lesson in any way point to a forecast of impending injury? I think it would be relevant if the player in question was older, as bodies tend to break down with age and recovery affects the entire body. But McFadden is a young pup. The injury concerns don’t seem concrete.

What I mean is that the injury concern feels fabricated, and not based on a supposition of a chronic issue that will eventually wear him down. Granted, eventually everyone wears down, but this isn’t a 28 or 29 yr old running back like Sjax and Gore. So I don’t see the relevance of past beat writer reports from last summer as any indicator positive or negative to McFadden’s 2012 campaign.

 

[Jason Wood]

Based on those reports, Darren McFadden was a consensus middle of the first round pick last year. And he started out of the gate looking like a really good investment. But we all know the rest and the mid foot sprain derailed his season. Why the revisionist history here? Isn’t this time of year the appropriate time to forecast fantasy production rather than be stuck in the past? Does this history lesson in any way point to a forecast of impending injury? I think it would be relevant if the player in question was older, as bodies tend to break down with age and recovery affects the entire body. But McFadden is a young pup. The injury concerns don’t seem concrete. What I mean is that the injury concern feels fabricated, and not based on a supposition of a chronic issue that will eventually wear him down. Granted, eventually everyone wears down, but this isn’t a 28 or 29 yr old running back like Sjax and Gore. So I don’t see the relevance of past beat writer reports from last summer as any indicator positive or negative to McFadden’s 2012 campaign.

You said that we have to judge WHAT WE KNOW and now WHAT WE THINK. And then you mentioned how he was in awesome shape and fully healthy. We "KNEW" those identical things last year at this very same time in the offseason. And look what that got you.And as I already showed, he was being drafted at almost the identical spot last year (13th overall this year, 14th last year). Caveat Emptor is all I'm saying.I genuinely hope most people feel the way you do, because it means I can be sure someone will grab him in the late 1st or early 2nd and let me snag someone I prefer more.

 

[jurb26]

...At some point the baseline has to incorporate what we've seen. If a guy misses a season, or a chunk, you can discount it. But McFadden has found myriad reasons to be off the field. Again we're not talking about a kid who had a major injury and missed a big chunk of time. We're also not talking about a runner who has yet to have a MONSTER season but has otherwise given you 200-225-240 carry seasons. We're talking about a guy with three years of less than part-time carries.

It sounds like you question McFadden’s toughness when you say he’s “found myriad reasons to be off the field”. Is that it? McFadden is unwilling to play through injury? Really? And why do you choose to point to only the 3 “part time” years and discount his relatively healthy 2010 campaign? That doesn’t seem fair.Let’s reset what we know. McFadden is 100% fully healthy right now, making all the cuts and displaying the world class speed in OTAs. He’s only 24 years old even though he seems like he’s been around forever. He’s just a pup. His skills on the field are ELITE and there is no real debate on this point. And none of his injuries are chronic in nature.

So based on what we KNOW, and not what we BELIEVE on a gut feel, Darren McFadden is seriously being undervalued.

Let me remind you of what we "knew" this time last year:Darren McFadden is reportedly making defenders miss "on a routine basis" early in Raiders camp and blowing by tacklers "with ease."

McFadden reported to camp looking like a chiseled specimen, and it's translated to practices. Beat writer Steve Corkran "wouldn't be surprised" if McFadden improved upon his breakout 2010 season. He's a late first-round fantasy pick.

Source: Oakland Tribune Mon, Aug 1, 2011 12:48:00 PM

Darren McFadden reportedly looked to be in tip-top physical condition upon reporting to Raiders camp on Wednesday.

Beat writer Steve Corkran described McFadden as having the "look of a man who hasn’t missed a day of workouts since last season ended." McFadden told reporters that he has "big goals set for this year" coming off a breakout 2010 campaign. Coach Hue Jackson has hinted that McFadden will be his offensive centerpiece after topping 114 total yards in 10-of-13 games last year.

Source: Oakland Tribune Wed, Jul 27, 2011 07:03:00 PM

Raiders coach Hue Jackson expects Darren McFadden to "build" on last year's breakout season.

Certainly not major news, but it's our first McFadden update since the end of the season. Jackson is building his offense around McFadden's diverse talents as a runner and receiver, so the former No. 4 overall pick is a good bet for 300 touches if he can manage to stay out of the trainer's room.

Source: San Francisco Chronicle Sun, Jun 26, 2011 02:44:00 PM

You really seem to be reaching here. What does any of this have to do with what we "know" for THIS YEAR?All of what was repported was true, McFadden did come in looking like chiseled Greek God. He was also embarrassing defenders all camp long and continued to do so when the regular season started. He did become the focal point of the Oak offense and he was on pace for a huge season. He got injured. The end.

Again, what does any of that have to do with this year, camp or regular season?

Here is what we know from last year;

McFadden averaged 110 total yds and .72 TDs per game.

He was one of the most valuable players in fantasy through the 1st 7 weeks.

He was injured and missed the last 9 games of the season.