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DeAndre Smelter, WR San Francisco 49ers (1 Viewer)

EBF

EBF

Footballguy
The Niners took this guy in the late 4th round even though he tore his ACL late last season and couldn't work out at the combine. He was a converted baseball player at Georgia Tech who had some success towards the end of his college career, catching 35 passes for 715 yards (20.4 YPR) as a senior in a conservative offense. Good size for a possession WR at 6'2" 226 and looks reasonably athletic in clips:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjtr6WfAZ8o

This guy was one of my top mid-late round targets in my rookie drafts this past year. He is in the style of Brandon Marshall, but probably not that good. If he pans out, I can see him becoming a very solid #2 WR ala Eric Decker. With Boldin on his last legs and Patton thus far failing to make an impact in SF, there could be some opportunity for a new player to emerge as the possession complement to Torrey Smith in the next year or two. Smelter began the year on IR, but could make some appearances down the stretch. I stumbled upon this news article that indicates he is making some progress in his recovery:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/9/18/9353631/deandre-smelter-running-routes-aside-from-49ers-practice

One member of the San Francisco 49ers appears to be making some progress in his injury recovery. Wide receiver DeAndre Smelter, currently on the NFI list as he recovers from a 2014 torn ACL, was spotted running routes and catching passes during the 49ers Friday practice session. Smelter is not allowed to practice with the team, but running routes with trainers as part of his rehab process is allowed.
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I figure he deserves his own thread to :blackdot: and monitor for the future. He could play at the end of this season and may become a relevant FF player a bit down the line.

 
Good potential, should be rostered in all large dynasty leagues. But unlikely to have much news any time soon.

 
There was always a chance he could get on the field this year given his date of injury. That's been known all along.

But I don't see a reason for excitement in 2015. He's a rookie who has been on the shelf a long time and consider the current state of his QB play.

I will be cautiously optimistic about his 2016 prospects if he suits up and gets meaningful snaps in 2015. But I don't expect anything meaningful from him in 2015 in terms of fantasy production.

 
There actually was some small news on him today. Nothing concrete as far as a possible return date:

http://www.49ers.com/news/article-2/Key-Updates-on-Jerome-Simpson-Daniel-Kilgore-and-DeAndre-Smelter/f568c8a9-b84b-447b-957f-1691f88407ed

As for Smelter, the team’s fourth-round draft pick from earlier this year is still recovering from the knee injury he sustained at Georgia Tech in 2014. The wide receiver is likely the player furthest away from a return.

“(The training staff) is really excited about what he’s doing,” Tomsula said. “I know he was on a week this week to amp-up. You know, they take him up and then they bring him down. So again, great reports on that.”
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http://www.csnbayarea.com/49ers/kilgore-smelter-begin-practice-week/

SANTA CLARA -- Center Daniel Kilgore and wide receiver DeAndre Smelter will be cleared to begin practice this week, 49ers coach Jim Tomsula said on Monday.

Kilgore opened the season on physically unable to perform after sustaining a broken left lower leg more than a year ago.

Smelter, a fourth-round draft pick, was on the non-football injury list after sustaining a torn ACL that ended his final season at Georgia Tech.

The 49ers have three weeks after the time both players begin practice to make a decision whether to activate them to the 53-man roster or place them on a season-ending injury list.
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Could potentially get some snaps this year. Don't know how likely it is with Patton looking decent in Boldin's absence, but stranger things have happened. I will say that Boldin looks close to done IMO.

 
pghrob said:
Bump for dynasty considerations.

Not sure of the reputation (if any) of the author.

http://ninernoise.com/2016/02/06/2016-49ers-bold-prediction-deandre-smelter-makes-the-pro-bowl/
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I have him rostered in my dynasty league and am really excited about him but would be very surprised if he is that good right away, im more hoping for some decent production next year were he can maybe be used as a bye week fill-in and prove that he can play so he has a better chance of breaking out in 2017

 
(Rotoworld)The 49ers are excited about second-year WRDeAndre Smelter.

Analysis: Smelter sat out his entire rookie season while recovering from a December 2014 torn ACL after being taken in the fourth round of last May's draft. Smelter stands 6'2/226 and has the size profile that new coach Chip Kelly seems to prefer out wide. Smelter is a bit older (25 in December), but averaged a robust 18.9 YPR in two seasons at Georgia Tech. With Anquan Boldin a free agent, the 49ers' depth chart is wide open behind big-money man Torrey Smith.

 
I think there is altogether way too little noise about this kid.  We are looking at a perfect fit for the Chip Kelly offense.  Big bruising player.  Explosive but raw coming out of Georgia Tech.  He's coming off injury but that was a long time ago (November 29, 2014).   Think of it like this.  His injury happened 491 days ago.  Not an issue at all.  He was selected in the 4th round despite him being unavailable for 2015.  

Hands are a full inch bigger than Odell Beckham's massive mitts at 11 - 1/8 inches.  Perhaps the biggest ever measured for a wideout at the combine.  1/2 bigger than Hakeem Nicks' 4XL hands.  

Oh yeah and he's also a supreme athlete (would have been a MLB pitcher if not for shoulder injury) and devastating blocker.  

Choo Choo.  Get on this train now before it leaves the station.  Zig while everyone zags on the mediocre receiving talent in this draft.  

 
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(USA Today)San Francisco 49ers WR DeAndre Smelter (knee) has been practicing without restrictions this offseason.

 
Can't wait to see him and Kevin White play this year. Two of my favorites from last year's draft and I still haven't seen either on an NFL field.

 
Yeah, I'm pretty eager to see what we have with this guy. I drafted him in 2 leagues, acquired him on waivers mid season in my only other dynasty... I like him as a possible Boldin type of player, not a burner but a beast. Tempered expectations are in full effect, of course.

 
Lott's Fingertip said:
Yeah, I'm pretty eager to see what we have with this guy. I drafted him in 2 leagues, acquired him on waivers mid season in my only other dynasty... I like him as a possible Boldin type of player, not a burner but a beast. Tempered expectations are in full effect, of course.
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Me too. 

 
I plan to draft this kid. I didn't hear about him until this post so thanks EBF for posting.

Tex

 
I keep envisioning Smelter kind of looking like Danario Alexander (when he played).  Maybe a thicker, slightly shorter, slightly heavier, slightly slower Alexander.  DX was a beast and would have done some great things if not for the multiple ACL injuries.  He was always athletically gifted (46" vert) with superb size (6'5), a bit raw coming out, but you could see the dominant upside for a big WR.  Smelter seems less explosive/flexible but more powerful on pushoffs and hand fighting during routes, crushing blocker and someone that will win in the air and with 11" hands or whatever he has when it is tight coverage.  Seems like just one of those freak athletes that's good at any sport.  Molded like a Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson or Demaryius Thomas type without the polish or speed maybe.  Seems like someone Chip would love to spring on the league in upstart mode though.

 
In terms of build Smelter is more like Fitz, Dez, Gordon, DT.  Unfortunately we have no real idea about who he stacks up with athletically.

 
If he plays to the level you would expect/hope with his physical attributes, he presents a very good pairing with Torrey. I still have him in one dynasty league. I will be keeping an eye on how it looks like he is playing leading through the pre-season.

 
ThreeThousand said:
And if we're picking nits MFL says he's 24 until December 2016
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Leave the facts out of this.   But if we are going for facts, Smelter is the same age today that Amari will be December 4 2018.  

So yeah Massraider just showed his math skills to be severely lacking.  Only off by 2 years trying to stretch to make a point.  Was there a point?  

 
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AJ Green, Julio Jones, and Demaryius Thomas are all older than him. I bet you'd still take them on your dynasty teams. 

As the saying goes, "Don't let perfect be the enemy of good."

This guy has a lot of physical ability and a wide open opportunity at a low market price. 

 
Interested to hear where people would slot him into this year's pedestrian draft.  Would he be a top 10 guy if he were draftable this year?

 
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Sabertooth said:
Leave the facts out of this.   But if we are going for facts, Smelter is the same age today that Amari will be December 4 2018.  

So yeah Massraider just showed his math skills to be severely lacking.  Only off by 2 years trying to stretch to make a point.  Was there a point?  
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Yes.  

He's awfully old to have proven/done zilch. 

He's playing for a nightmare organization,  a coaching staff that inherited him,  and Blaine Gabbert is his QB.

Umm, I have reservations,  and age is a big one.  How many fantasy WRs emerged at this age,  in a crap situation? 

 
massraider said:
Yes.  

He's awfully old to have proven/done zilch. 

He's playing for a nightmare organization,  a coaching staff that inherited him,  and Blaine Gabbert is his QB.

Umm, I have reservations,  and age is a big one.  How many fantasy WRs emerged at this age,  in a crap situation? 
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No two situations are alike.  So I could name guys and have you argue how they aren't good comps, but why bother, we just have different opinions.  

 
massraider said:
He's playing for a nightmare organization,  a coaching staff that inherited him,  and Blaine Gabbert is his QB.

Umm, I have reservations,  and age is a big one.  How many fantasy WRs emerged at this age,  in a crap situation? 
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Seems like most sport books are saying oak is 3x more likely to make it to the SB than SF.... though schedule probably plays a big part.

Would you lay 3-1 odds that Chip has more win totals in SF than oak has in the 2016 regular season(tied record being a push)?

 
massraider said:
Yes.  

He's awfully old to have proven/done zilch. 

He's playing for a nightmare organization,  a coaching staff that inherited him,  and Blaine Gabbert is his QB.

Umm, I have reservations,  and age is a big one.  How many fantasy WRs emerged at this age,  in a crap situation? 
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Are you asking if any WRs have emerged at age 24?  I'd say most of them emerge at about that age, no?  Situations are always very fluid too.  A bad team means a lot of garbage time.  See Jax and their WRs last year, as well as previous years.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
Interested to hear where people would slot him into this year's pedestrian draft.  Would he be a top 10 guy if he were draftable this year?
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I honestly like his game clips more than Shepard/Thomas/Boyd. Would I pay an equivalent price? Probably not, and it's a moot point because I shouldn't have to. As a 4th round pick with no NFL track record, he should come relatively cheap. I'd feel comfortable giving a mid 2nd (a pick in the 16-20 range) in this year's weak rookie draft. Anything higher than that and your profit margin starts to look a bit too lean to justify the risk. I'm a big fan of his game though. Have him almost everywhere already. 

 
ChuckLiddell said:
Are you asking if any WRs have emerged at age 24?  I'd say most of them emerge at about that age, no?  Situations are always very fluid too.  A bad team means a lot of garbage time.  See Jax and their WRs last year, as well as previous years.
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I will say this about age,  and this is age 25 year.  Whether he turns 25 in Dec, or Feb, he was still in the same kindergarten with some kid who turned 25 two months ago.

I don't think age is a massive, massive deal.  It's just one thing.  And he's not OLD. But he ain't young,  not for not having done anything.

 Older rookies,  like this,  shouldn't they have been dominating in college?  If they are going to come in and catch 80 balls or 8 TD in the NFL, don't you want them toying with college guys?

Anyway, like I said, it's just one thing.  I don't like SF offense,  SF organization,  Kelly the coach,  and Gabbert the QB.

 
Yes he's old(as far as football goes) but that doesn't mean he can't come in and produce very good numbers for 4-5 years, he has been learning the playbook for the last year and I see him easily being able to come in and get the targets that Boldin was so he should be able to produce decent numbers for a guy you can get really cheap

 
EBF said:
I honestly like his game clips more than Shepard/Thomas/Boyd. Would I pay an equivalent price? Probably not, and it's a moot point because I shouldn't have to. As a 4th round pick with no NFL track record, he should come relatively cheap. I'd feel comfortable giving a mid 2nd (a pick in the 16-20 range) in this year's weak rookie draft. Anything higher than that and your profit margin starts to look a bit too lean to justify the risk. I'm a big fan of his game though. Have him almost everywhere already. 
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I would think most owners that have him tho are going to rather hold him then get a second round pick, I know I wouldn't trade him for one, first round maybe if a guy I really like is there but otherwise I'll take a gamble on a guy that has really good size and speed on a team without a WR that has really done that much in front of him. I would agree tho that I'm not a fan of the 9ers offense but someone has to catch the passes and I would bet smelter has the best chance

 
Bfrahm3 said:
Yes he's old(as far as football goes) but that doesn't mean he can't come in and produce very good numbers for 4-5 years, he has been learning the playbook for the last year and I see him easily being able to come in and get the targets that Boldin was so he should be able to produce decent numbers for a guy you can get really cheap
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Well,  I certainly hope he didn't fill up his brain learning that playbook last year,  cause I have some bad news...

 
massraider said:
 Older rookies,  like this,  shouldn't they have been dominating in college?  If they are going to come in and catch 80 balls or 8 TD in the NFL, don't you want them toying with college guys?
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Are you familiar with his background at all? He was originally a baseball player and was drafted by the Twins. He didn't join the football team at Georgia Tech until his junior season. In his senior year he averaged 20.4 yards per catch and a TD every 5 receptions. He had 715 receiving yards that year in 12 games before tearing his ACL. That may not sound like that much, but bear in mind that Georgia Tech ranked 124th out of 128 Division 1 programs with just 203 passing attempts that season. Smelter accounted for 38% of their receiving yards despite missing two full games with the knee. If you cut out the 259 total passing yards that Tech netted in the two games that he missed with injury, Smelter's market share rises to 44.1% of Tech's total. And he did all of that despite sharing the field with Darren Waller, a WR who was drafted by the Ravens in the sixth round last year. Here's how Smelter's 2014 market share compares to the 2015 totals of this year's top draft picks:

Smelter - 44.1%

Fuller - 37.4%

Boyd - 37.3%

Coleman - 36.2%

Shepard - 32.2%

Doctson - 29.4%

Treadwell - 26.4%

I don't think market share is the perfect stat for a variety of reasons, but in general your assessment of the situation there seems very lacking. You make no mention of his rawness (he only played two years of college football), his injury, or his team's conservative offense. All of these things influenced his production. He wasn't as dominant at Tech as Demaryius Thomas or Calvin Johnson, but those might be two of the top 5 WRs of the past decade, so it's a pretty high standard for anyone.

Overall, he was an efficiency stats dynamo as a senior at Georgia Tech. His yards per reception average in his final season was ahead of what Fuller, Boyd, Treadwell, Coleman, Shepard, and Doctson did. He averaged more TDs per reception than everyone besides Coleman and Carroo. Of the WRs picked in the first three rounds this year, only Carroo had a higher market share in his final season. And Smelter did all of this as a 6'2" 226 pound possession WR.

He passes the eyeball test for me, was a somewhat high draft pick considering his injury situation, and is on a team that has no proven possession WR. Given his lack of experience, it would be somewhat unreasonable to assume he's just going to step in and dominate, but this is an exciting prospect. I don't think your analysis does him credit. It seems like you don't know much about this player and are looking for reasons not to like him instead of weighing all of the information.

 
dipandglide said:
I've been stashing him in quite a few leagues. I'm excited to see what I have. 
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:yes:

Gonna be an interesting battle between Smelter, Patton, and Ellington for the team's second starting spot. I think all three have some degree of viability. Smelter seems to have the most upside. If he can show the ability to consistently separate, I think he'll take it. He is bigger and much more physical than the other SF WRs. The only possible troubling flaw I saw in some of his Georgia Tech clips was that he didn't always generate great separation in his routes.

 
dipandglide said:
I've been stashing him in quite a few leagues. I'm excited to see what I have. 
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Yeah, I think some are waaaaaay over-thinking this. Most people who have him drafted him in the 3rd or 4th round last year knowing his age and knowing he'd miss a year. He's a lottery ticket. If somewhere down the line he becomes a player I can slot into my WR3 position for a few years I'd consider that a pretty nice return.

 
EBF said:
:yes:

Gonna be an interesting battle between Smelter, Patton, and Ellington for the team's second starting spot. I think all three have some degree of viability. Smelter seems to have the most upside. If he can show the ability to consistently separate, I think he'll take it. He is bigger and much more physical than the other SF WRs. The only possible troubling flaw I saw in some of his Georgia Tech clips was that he didn't always generate great separation in his routes.
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I already have quite a few shares of Smelter. These past few months I've been picking Ellington up off of WW's and getting him as a cheap addition in trades. San Francisco has a lot of cheap options to invest in....hopefully I can hit one(or two :) )

The only knock on Smelter that I saw(other than experience) was he tended to body catch. I'm hoping he's using those big mitts more away from his body :)  

 
Christo said:
Yeah, I think some are waaaaaay over-thinking this. Most people who have him drafted him in the 3rd or 4th round last year knowing his age and knowing he'd miss a year. He's a lottery ticket. If somewhere down the line he becomes a player I can slot into my WR3 position for a few years I'd consider that a pretty nice return.
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Absolutely. Finding production past round 2 isn't easy. 

 
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