DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers (1 Viewer)

[baconisgood]

I think 20 TDs is such a rare occurrence that it's difficult to predict it happening again

There have been 20 instances of 20+ RRTD for RBs since 1970- but 11 of those have come since 2000, and Williams was averaging 11 more y/g in 09 than he did in 08 before his injury (not counting game 13) which is worth 2.5 more TDs. There have been 43 instances of 17+ TDs since 1970 with 21 coming since 2000 and 28 since 1995- the upward trend in scoring has lead to more big individual years for RBs even with all the extra passing going on. If there are 32 RB years per year then over the last 10 you have ~6.5% chance of a 17+ TD season as a starting RB. Of note - that list of 21 RBs with 17+ TDs since 2000 Ahman Greene, Clinton Portis, Ricky Williams, Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner along with Deangelo did not/have not repeated- that is 3 RBs out of 12 who have basically finished their careers without duplicating, 6 who have duplicated and 3 who have done it for the first time the past 2 years and will have opportunities to duplicate. Once you find yourself in a situation where you are able to get 17 TDs or more there is a pretty good chance of repeating.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I think 20 TDs is such a rare occurrence that it's difficult to predict it happening again

There have been 20 instances of 20+ RRTD for RBs since 1970- but 11 of those have come since 2000, and Williams was averaging 11 more y/g in 09 than he did in 08 before his injury (not counting game 13) which is worth 2.5 more TDs. There have been 43 instances of 17+ TDs since 1970 with 21 coming since 2000 and 28 since 1995- the upward trend in scoring has lead to more big individual years for RBs even with all the extra passing going on. If there are 32 RB years per year then over the last 10 you have ~6.5% chance of a 17+ TD season as a starting RB. Of note - that list of 21 RBs with 17+ TDs since 2000 Ahman Greene, Clinton Portis, Ricky Williams, Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner along with Deangelo did not/have not repeated- that is 3 RBs out of 12 who have basically finished their careers without duplicating, 6 who have duplicated and 3 who have done it for the first time the past 2 years and will have opportunities to duplicate. Once you find yourself in a situation where you are able to get 17 TDs or more there is a pretty good chance of repeating.

With Stewart likely to get 10 TDs or so himself, the only way Williams gets 20 is if the Panthers get 30 from the two of them, which, at least to me, seems extremely unlikely to happen for a second time. Also, the above RBs to the best of my recollection, did not have another RB on their team who was a great goal line RB like Stewart with the potential to get double-digit TDs. Basically, I just don't think predicting Williams to reach 20 TDs is realistic given that Stewart is on the team and how rare it happens.

 

[meanjoegreen]

Bayhawks,

Stewart had surgery so his achilles WOULDN'T nag him anymore. DeAngelo back practicing lightly has nothing to do with Stewart not being able to practice in training camp. Stewart is expected to be released by the doctors to run this month and he will be ready for the start of training camp.

I think you are trying to pick a fight with me due to the fact you don't agree that the two could have close to a 50/50 split during the season. I'm not the only one who feels they can possibly get close to the same amount of playing time this year. I don't own either in a fantasy league right now, but I am a Panthers fan, and I think Fox will use them both a lot to pound the ball. I also think the offense won't be as predictable as it has been in past. Now that they have a versatile weapon like Armanti Edwards, I think you will see them use a slot player more than they have in the past, and do more trick plays. We will see if Jeff Davidson has the creativity to take advantage of all the talent that he has.

 

[Bayhawks]

I think 20 TDs is such a rare occurrence that it's difficult to predict it happening again

There have been 20 instances of 20+ RRTD for RBs since 1970- but 11 of those have come since 2000, and Williams was averaging 11 more y/g in 09 than he did in 08 before his injury (not counting game 13) which is worth 2.5 more TDs. There have been 43 instances of 17+ TDs since 1970 with 21 coming since 2000 and 28 since 1995- the upward trend in scoring has lead to more big individual years for RBs even with all the extra passing going on. If there are 32 RB years per year then over the last 10 you have ~6.5% chance of a 17+ TD season as a starting RB. Of note - that list of 21 RBs with 17+ TDs since 2000 Ahman Greene, Clinton Portis, Ricky Williams, Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner along with Deangelo did not/have not repeated- that is 3 RBs out of 12 who have basically finished their careers without duplicating, 6 who have duplicated and 3 who have done it for the first time the past 2 years and will have opportunities to duplicate. Once you find yourself in a situation where you are able to get 17 TDs or more there is a pretty good chance of repeating.

I'm not sure what to make of this post.You start out by stating that 20 times a RB has rushed/received 20+ TDs in a season since 1970, but that over half of those (11) have come in the last decade. This is an important point, because as you have noted, there's been a recent upward trend in TDs by RBs.Then you say that Williams was averaging 11 more yards per game in 2009 (than 2008), which is worth 2.5 more TDs? What is that supposed to mean? Are you talking about fantasy points? If so, that's not really relevant. The discussion is about the potential for Williams to put up the type of season he put up in '08, and the 20 TDs were a big part of that. There's been little debate about Williams' ability to put up yards or a high YPC. Repeating the 20 TDs is the issue.Then, for some reason, you decide to start using 17 TDs instead of 20. 17 TDs isn't 20. Would it be more likely for Williams to rush for more yards and less TDs? Yes, but that really isn't the point, is it? The point of the post you quoted was that 20 TDs is a rare occurence. Not that the FF point of 20 TDs is a rare occurence. Therefore, suggesting that Williams can get more yards and make up for fewer TDs isn't really germane.As to the issue of 20 rush/receiving TDs:In the last decade, 11 times a RB has accumulated a total of 20+ rush/rec TDs. This has been done by 7 different RBs. Tomlinson did it twice, Alexander did it twice, Holmes did it twice, Faulk did it twice, with Johnson, Green, and Williams accomplishing the feat once each.To be fair, you almost have to discount Faulk from this list. In the 2 seasons where he scored 20 TDs (2000 & 2001), he only had 253 and 260 carries. However, he had 81 & 83 receptions in those seasons, as well as 8 & 9 TDs. In essence, Faulk was a freak, serving not only as a RB, but also as a WR, in order to get his 20+ TDs.That leaves LT, Alexander, and Holmes as repeating 20+ TD RBs, with Johnson, Green, and Williams as non-repeating.So, you could look at that list & say "A RB who scores 20+ TD in a season has a 50% chance in repeating the feat," but that would be foolish for several reasons.First, and foremost, the sample size is too small. Second, if you look at the situations, those other RBs averaged over 388 touches/season in the years they scored 20+ TDs. This makes sense, because it takes a large amount of touches to have the opportunity to score 20+ TDs. DeAngelo Williams only had 296 touches in his 20 TD season.For him to reach 388 touches/season, he'd have to get 6 more touches a game. Could it happen? Yes. Is it likely? No.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I think 20 TDs is such a rare occurrence that it's difficult to predict it happening again

There have been 20 instances of 20+ RRTD for RBs since 1970- but 11 of those have come since 2000, and Williams was averaging 11 more y/g in 09 than he did in 08 before his injury (not counting game 13) which is worth 2.5 more TDs. There have been 43 instances of 17+ TDs since 1970 with 21 coming since 2000 and 28 since 1995- the upward trend in scoring has lead to more big individual years for RBs even with all the extra passing going on. If there are 32 RB years per year then over the last 10 you have ~6.5% chance of a 17+ TD season as a starting RB. Of note - that list of 21 RBs with 17+ TDs since 2000 Ahman Greene, Clinton Portis, Ricky Williams, Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner along with Deangelo did not/have not repeated- that is 3 RBs out of 12 who have basically finished their careers without duplicating, 6 who have duplicated and 3 who have done it for the first time the past 2 years and will have opportunities to duplicate. Once you find yourself in a situation where you are able to get 17 TDs or more there is a pretty good chance of repeating.

I'm not sure what to make of this post.You start out by stating that 20 times a RB has rushed/received 20+ TDs in a season since 1970, but that over half of those (11) have come in the last decade. This is an important point, because as you have noted, there's been a recent upward trend in TDs by RBs.Then you say that Williams was averaging 11 more yards per game in 2009 (than 2008), which is worth 2.5 more TDs? What is that supposed to mean? Are you talking about fantasy points? If so, that's not really relevant. The discussion is about the potential for Williams to put up the type of season he put up in '08, and the 20 TDs were a big part of that. There's been little debate about Williams' ability to put up yards or a high YPC. Repeating the 20 TDs is the issue.Then, for some reason, you decide to start using 17 TDs instead of 20. 17 TDs isn't 20. Would it be more likely for Williams to rush for more yards and less TDs? Yes, but that really isn't the point, is it? The point of the post you quoted was that 20 TDs is a rare occurence. Not that the FF point of 20 TDs is a rare occurence. Therefore, suggesting that Williams can get more yards and make up for fewer TDs isn't really germane.As to the issue of 20 rush/receiving TDs:In the last decade, 11 times a RB has accumulated a total of 20+ rush/rec TDs. This has been done by 7 different RBs. Tomlinson did it twice, Alexander did it twice, Holmes did it twice, Faulk did it twice, with Johnson, Green, and Williams accomplishing the feat once each.To be fair, you almost have to discount Faulk from this list. In the 2 seasons where he scored 20 TDs (2000 & 2001), he only had 253 and 260 carries. However, he had 81 & 83 receptions in those seasons, as well as 8 & 9 TDs. In essence, Faulk was a freak, serving not only as a RB, but also as a WR, in order to get his 20+ TDs.That leaves LT, Alexander, and Holmes as repeating 20+ TD RBs, with Johnson, Green, and Williams as non-repeating.So, you could look at that list & say "A RB who scores 20+ TD in a season has a 50% chance in repeating the feat," but that would be foolish for several reasons.First, and foremost, the sample size is too small. Second, if you look at the situations, those other RBs averaged over 388 touches/season in the years they scored 20+ TDs. This makes sense, because it takes a large amount of touches to have the opportunity to score 20+ TDs. DeAngelo Williams only had 296 touches in his 20 TD season.For him to reach 388 touches/season, he'd have to get 6 more touches a game. Could it happen? Yes. Is it likely? No.

I really don't see any reason to discount Faulk because he had a high number of receptions. He was actually getting fewer total touches than LT, Alexander, and Holmes. And Priest Holmes was getting 70+ receptions to Faulk's 80+ receptions, so it's not like their workload in that aspect was dramatically different.With that being said, I think it is far more relevant to bring up the fact that these running backs were getting far more total touches than DeAngelo did in 2008 and that it's unlikely to put up a 20 TD total on fewer than 300 touches.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Bayhawks,

Stewart had surgery so his achilles WOULDN'T nag him anymore. DeAngelo back practicing lightly has nothing to do with Stewart not being able to practice in training camp. Stewart is expected to be released by the doctors to run this month and he will be ready for the start of training camp.

I think you are trying to pick a fight with me due to the fact you don't agree that the two could have close to a 50/50 split during the season. I'm not the only one who feels they can possibly get close to the same amount of playing time this year. I don't own either in a fantasy league right now, but I am a Panthers fan, and I think Fox will use them both a lot to pound the ball. I also think the offense won't be as predictable as it has been in past. Now that they have a versatile weapon like Armanti Edwards, I think you will see them use a slot player more than they have in the past, and do more trick plays. We will see if Jeff Davidson has the creativity to take advantage of all the talent that he has.

Although I agree with you in the fact that I see close to a 50-50 split, I think the phrase "pick a fight" is a bit strong. These threads are meant to spur debate and discussion and they usually turn out great because of the differences of opinion. A polarizing situation like the Carolina RBs is expected to be heavily debated.

 

[meanjoegreen]

Although I agree with you in the fact that I see close to a 50-50 split, I think the phrase "pick a fight" is a bit strong. These threads are meant to spur debate and discussion and they usually turn out great because of the differences of opinion. A polarizing situation like the Carolina RBs is expected to be heavily debated.

I don't mind a debate, but I do mind when someone takes out of context and misrepresents what I have said.

 

[baconisgood]

Then you say that Williams was averaging 11 more yards per game in 2009 (than 2008), which is worth 2.5 more TDs? What is that supposed to mean? Are you talking about fantasy points? If so, that's not really relevant

Absolutely it is relevant. If Deangelo gets 300 pts I don't care if he gets 49 TDs on 50 yards rushing or if he gets 3,000 yards from scrimmage + 0 TDs. For Deangelo to repeat his total point performance of 2008 he will either need to have the same numbers or to have an increase in 1 category to offset a decline in another. Deangelo's 11 more yards per game in 09 than 08 means that he could have achieved roughly the same output with 17-18 TDs instead of 20. Since 2000 there have been 64 instances of RBs with 1700+ total yards and 43 of 1800+, putting up the kind of total yardage #s needed for Deangleo to overcome a 3 TD dip would not be unprecedented by any means.

 

[baconisgood]

Second, if you look at the situations, those other RBs averaged over 388 touches/season in the years they scored 20+ TDs. This makes sense, because it takes a large amount of touches to have the opportunity to score 20+ TDs. DeAngelo Williams only had 296 touches in his 20 TD season.

It "would be foolish" to view it in this light as those RBs didn't average 20 TDs in those seasons- they averaged 23.8 TDs- for an average of ~1 TD per 16.3 touches. Deangelo would need 326 touches at that pace to get 20 TDs- or 20.4 touches a game. In his 28 healthy games the past 2 years Deangleo has averaged 19.04 touches a game- so he would need roughly 1.4 more per game to be on pace for 20 touches at the rate of other 20+ touchdown players.

 

[Bayhawks]

Bayhawks,Stewart had surgery so his achilles WOULDN'T nag him anymore. DeAngelo back practicing lightly has nothing to do with Stewart not being able to practice in training camp. Stewart is expected to be released by the doctors to run this month and he will be ready for the start of training camp.I think you are trying to pick a fight with me due to the fact you don't agree that the two could have close to a 50/50 split during the season. I'm not the only one who feels they can possibly get close to the same amount of playing time this year. I don't own either in a fantasy league right now, but I am a Panthers fan, and I think Fox will use them both a lot to pound the ball. I also think the offense won't be as predictable as it has been in past. Now that they have a versatile weapon like Armanti Edwards, I think you will see them use a slot player more than they have in the past, and do more trick plays. We will see if Jeff Davidson has the creativity to take advantage of all the talent that he has.

I'm not sure exactly how I'm trying to "pick a fight with you?" I don't agree with you on this point, and I merely responded to your post saying I didn't agree with the logic you used to get to your belief that Stewart would garner 50% of the carries in 2010. If you think that's "picking a fight," then your skin is too thin.I understand that Stewart had surgery so his achilles wouldn't nag him anymore. I also understand that he has not recovered from that surgery, and therefore from that injury. Hence, the statement "he hasn't recovered from yet another nagging injury." You are correct that DeAngelo practicing (not lightly-I have read NOTHING about him being limited in any way in OTAs) has nothing to do with Stewart being able to practice in training camp.But try to look at the situation without any bias towards Stewart or Williams.Williams is the veteran RB, and Fox has shown nothing in his coaching career if not loyalty to veterans. He stuck with Delhomme despite his problems last year. He stuck with Davis over Foster when Foster was the clear better option. He stuck Foster over Williams when Williams was clearly the better option.Williams has a better YPC, with a career YPC of 5.1. Stewart's is 4.9.Williams is the better receiving option, with an average of 27 catches a year, with an average of 8.1 YPR. Stewart has averaged 13 catches a year, for an average of 7.2 YPR.They are both very good short-yardage runners, but Williams is better, with a 4.6 YPC on rushes with 3 yards or less to go. Stewart has averaged 4.5 YPC over the last 2 years.So despite all of these facts that would indicate that Williams will continue to get the majority of the carries, you believe that Stewart will garner a higher percentage of carries BECAUSE HE HAD SURGERY ON HIS ACHILLES, a surgery that he still hasn't fully recovered from?

 

[Bayhawks]

I really don't see any reason to discount Faulk because he had a high number of receptions. He was actually getting fewer total touches than LT, Alexander, and Holmes. And Priest Holmes was getting 70+ receptions to Faulk's 80+ receptions, so it's not like their workload in that aspect was dramatically different.

When I said we should discount Faulk, I didn't mean to discredit him, or imply that he was getting more touches then other RBs. Rather, that unlike most current RBs who might get 40 receptions and 1-2 receiving TDs in a good year, he was getting 80+ catches and 8-9 TDs, like a FF WR1 was. This was in addition to putting up RB1 stats based on his rushing numbers alone.That's not normal for a RB, and it's part of what made Faulk special. In addition, because he was so special, it wouldn't be completely "fair" to look at his numbers as we would with other, "regular" RBs.

 

[Bayhawks]

Then you say that Williams was averaging 11 more yards per game in 2009 (than 2008), which is worth 2.5 more TDs? What is that supposed to mean? Are you talking about fantasy points? If so, that's not really relevant

Absolutely it is relevant. If Deangelo gets 300 pts I don't care if he gets 49 TDs on 50 yards rushing or if he gets 3,000 yards from scrimmage + 0 TDs. For Deangelo to repeat his total point performance of 2008 he will either need to have the same numbers or to have an increase in 1 category to offset a decline in another. Deangelo's 11 more yards per game in 09 than 08 means that he could have achieved roughly the same output with 17-18 TDs instead of 20. Since 2000 there have been 64 instances of RBs with 1700+ total yards and 43 of 1800+, putting up the kind of total yardage #s needed for Deangleo to overcome a 3 TD dip would not be unprecedented by any means.

It would be relevant, if you hadn't quoted a post that said "I think 20 TDs is such a rare occurrence that it's difficult to predict it happening again." The post you quoted was CLEARLY talking about a RB scoring 20 TDs, not about a RB putting the FF point equivalent of 20 TDs.

 

[firstseason1988]

I got D Will in a trade for B Berrian in my dynasty league just before he went off in 08.

that's how i roll.

 

[Bayhawks]

Second, if you look at the situations, those other RBs averaged over 388 touches/season in the years they scored 20+ TDs. This makes sense, because it takes a large amount of touches to have the opportunity to score 20+ TDs. DeAngelo Williams only had 296 touches in his 20 TD season.

It "would be foolish" to view it in this light as those RBs didn't average 20 TDs in those seasons- they averaged 23.8 TDs- for an average of ~1 TD per 16.3 touches. Deangelo would need 326 touches at that pace to get 20 TDs- or 20.4 touches a game. In his 28 healthy games the past 2 years Deangleo has averaged 19.04 touches a game- so he would need roughly 1.4 more per game to be on pace for 20 touches at the rate of other 20+ touchdown players.

That's a very good point, and one I didn't consider when I "ran" those numbers before.I still think it's unlikely that Williams will have the opportunity to put up a 20 TD season again, but it doesn't look as difficult as I thought before.

 

[Bayhawks]

Although I agree with you in the fact that I see close to a 50-50 split, I think the phrase "pick a fight" is a bit strong. These threads are meant to spur debate and discussion and they usually turn out great because of the differences of opinion. A polarizing situation like the Carolina RBs is expected to be heavily debated.

I don't mind a debate, but I do mind when someone takes out of context and misrepresents what I have said.

How did I misrepresent what you have said? You posted that you thought Stewart's number of touches was due to his bum achilles ALL SEASON LONG. That is one injury that bothered (or nagged, if you will) him all season long.

Then you posted that he had surgery, but he hasn't started practicing yet. Therefore, he still hasn't recovered from the (nagging) achilles injury from last year.

Then you posted that you believe, if Stewart is healthy, that he will get close to a 50/50 split of the carries. Since the split was 58/42 in Williams' favor before Williams' injury, you obviously believe that Stewart's % of the carries will increase.

So to sum up, as I've done before, you believe Stewart got only 42% of the carries when both were heathy in 2009 b/c of his bum achilles, an injury that bothered (or nagged) him all season. He had surgery to "fix" this injury; a surgery that he hasn't recovered enough from to practice yet. Yet, you think that he will recover and get a higher % of the carries in 2010.

How is this misrepresenting what you posted below?

(meanjoegreen @ Jun 5 2010, 04:51 PM)

I don't think the number of touches each back got last year had to do with Fox loyalty. I think it had to do with Stewart playing on a bum achilles all season long. He had surgery during the offseason and so did DeAngelo. DeAngelo is back practicing, but Stewart hasn't started yet. If Stewart's achilles is healthy by the start of the season, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split. They also have an unique close friendship, and both want each other to play and do well. There is no ego clashing between those two.

The backup players that played on the OL near the end of last year did a good job.

I don't agree with your logic, so I must be "misrepresenting" you and "picking a fight?"

 

[baconisgood]

Then you say that Williams was averaging 11 more yards per game in 2009 (than 2008), which is worth 2.5 more TDs? What is that supposed to mean? Are you talking about fantasy points? If so, that's not really relevant

Absolutely it is relevant. If Deangelo gets 300 pts I don't care if he gets 49 TDs on 50 yards rushing or if he gets 3,000 yards from scrimmage + 0 TDs. For Deangelo to repeat his total point performance of 2008 he will either need to have the same numbers or to have an increase in 1 category to offset a decline in another. Deangelo's 11 more yards per game in 09 than 08 means that he could have achieved roughly the same output with 17-18 TDs instead of 20. Since 2000 there have been 64 instances of RBs with 1700+ total yards and 43 of 1800+, putting up the kind of total yardage #s needed for Deangleo to overcome a 3 TD dip would not be unprecedented by any means.

It would be relevant, if you hadn't quoted a post that said "I think 20 TDs is such a rare occurrence that it's difficult to predict it happening again." The post you quoted was CLEARLY talking about a RB scoring 20 TDs, not about a RB putting the FF point equivalent of 20 TDs.

The rest of the post was clearly talking about how many total points (yards + TDs) he expected from Deangelo. The 20 TDs- in the context of his post and the general discussion- is only important for calculating Deangelo's total points. I was pointing out that it was not nearly as unreasonable as he implied for Deangelo to repeat his total output of 2008 because his total yardage stats had upside even if his TDs didn't.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I'm not sure exactly how I'm trying to "pick a fight with you?" I don't agree with you on this point, and I merely responded to your post saying I didn't agree with the logic you used to get to your belief that Stewart would garner 50% of the carries in 2010. If you think that's "picking a fight," then your skin is too thin.I understand that Stewart had surgery so his achilles wouldn't nag him anymore. I also understand that he has not recovered from that surgery, and therefore from that injury. Hence, the statement "he hasn't recovered from yet another nagging injury." You are correct that DeAngelo practicing (not lightly-I have read NOTHING about him being limited in any way in OTAs) has nothing to do with Stewart being able to practice in training camp.But try to look at the situation without any bias towards Stewart or Williams.Williams is the veteran RB, and Fox has shown nothing in his coaching career if not loyalty to veterans. He stuck with Delhomme despite his problems last year. He stuck with Davis over Foster when Foster was the clear better option. He stuck Foster over Williams when Williams was clearly the better option.Williams has a better YPC, with a career YPC of 5.1. Stewart's is 4.9.Williams is the better receiving option, with an average of 27 catches a year, with an average of 8.1 YPR. Stewart has averaged 13 catches a year, for an average of 7.2 YPR.They are both very good short-yardage runners, but Williams is better, with a 4.6 YPC on rushes with 3 yards or less to go. Stewart has averaged 4.5 YPC over the last 2 years.So despite all of these facts that would indicate that Williams will continue to get the majority of the carries, you believe that Stewart will garner a higher percentage of carries BECAUSE HE HAD SURGERY ON HIS ACHILLES, a surgery that he still hasn't fully recovered from?

The 0.2 difference in career yards per carry is negligible, especially when you factor in Stewart playing with injuries.The 0.1 yards per carry difference in the short yardage of 3 yards or less is nothing. How can you use that as evidence that Williams is better in short yardage. Analyze the number of times they converted a 3 yards or less into a first down (including TDs), because that is much more important than yards per carry in a short yardage situation. On first and second down and 3 yards or less to go: Williams had 52 carries and converted 32 into first downs for 62%Stewart had 41 carries and converted 23 into first downs for 56%On 3rd and 4th down and 3 yards or less to go:Williams had 42 carries and converted 28 for 67%Stewart had 27 carries and converted 21 for 78%Stewart converted 3rd and 4th down short yardage into first downs 11% more often than Williams, so I don't see how Williams is better in short yardage.

 

[Bayhawks]

Then you say that Williams was averaging 11 more yards per game in 2009 (than 2008), which is worth 2.5 more TDs? What is that supposed to mean? Are you talking about fantasy points? If so, that's not really relevant

Absolutely it is relevant. If Deangelo gets 300 pts I don't care if he gets 49 TDs on 50 yards rushing or if he gets 3,000 yards from scrimmage + 0 TDs. For Deangelo to repeat his total point performance of 2008 he will either need to have the same numbers or to have an increase in 1 category to offset a decline in another. Deangelo's 11 more yards per game in 09 than 08 means that he could have achieved roughly the same output with 17-18 TDs instead of 20. Since 2000 there have been 64 instances of RBs with 1700+ total yards and 43 of 1800+, putting up the kind of total yardage #s needed for Deangleo to overcome a 3 TD dip would not be unprecedented by any means.

It would be relevant, if you hadn't quoted a post that said "I think 20 TDs is such a rare occurrence that it's difficult to predict it happening again." The post you quoted was CLEARLY talking about a RB scoring 20 TDs, not about a RB putting the FF point equivalent of 20 TDs.

The rest of the post was clearly talking about how many total points (yards + TDs) he expected from Deangelo. The 20 TDs- in the context of his post and the general discussion- is only important for calculating Deangelo's total points. I was pointing out that it was not nearly as unreasonable as he implied for Deangelo to repeat his total output of 2008 because his total yardage stats had upside even if his TDs didn't.

I see what you're saying, but before the post you quoted, the thread had taken a slight turn, away from FF points, and towards the direction of Williams being unable to repeat his 2008 season, and then specifically towards him being unlikely to repeat his 20+ TDs from that season. That, capped with your post being a direct quote of the line:"I think 20 TDs is such a rare occurrence that it's difficult to predict it happening again" seemed to be referring to the TDs specifically, not as part of a larger FF whole.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

He had surgery to "fix" this injury; a surgery that he hasn't recovered enough from to practice yet.

Why does this matter? Stewart was never expected to be recovered and practice this soon. The surgery was relatively minor and should take care of the problems related to his Achilles. Why is this a negative? I think it is a major positive that he had the surgery to get rid of the bone spur that was the cause of the Achilles problems. If Stewart is not practicing at or near the start of training camp, then it could be an issue since he is expected to be recovered by then.

 

[Bayhawks]

I'm not sure exactly how I'm trying to "pick a fight with you?" I don't agree with you on this point, and I merely responded to your post saying I didn't agree with the logic you used to get to your belief that Stewart would garner 50% of the carries in 2010. If you think that's "picking a fight," then your skin is too thin.I understand that Stewart had surgery so his achilles wouldn't nag him anymore. I also understand that he has not recovered from that surgery, and therefore from that injury. Hence, the statement "he hasn't recovered from yet another nagging injury." You are correct that DeAngelo practicing (not lightly-I have read NOTHING about him being limited in any way in OTAs) has nothing to do with Stewart being able to practice in training camp.But try to look at the situation without any bias towards Stewart or Williams.Williams is the veteran RB, and Fox has shown nothing in his coaching career if not loyalty to veterans. He stuck with Delhomme despite his problems last year. He stuck with Davis over Foster when Foster was the clear better option. He stuck Foster over Williams when Williams was clearly the better option.Williams has a better YPC, with a career YPC of 5.1. Stewart's is 4.9.Williams is the better receiving option, with an average of 27 catches a year, with an average of 8.1 YPR. Stewart has averaged 13 catches a year, for an average of 7.2 YPR.They are both very good short-yardage runners, but Williams is better, with a 4.6 YPC on rushes with 3 yards or less to go. Stewart has averaged 4.5 YPC over the last 2 years.So despite all of these facts that would indicate that Williams will continue to get the majority of the carries, you believe that Stewart will garner a higher percentage of carries BECAUSE HE HAD SURGERY ON HIS ACHILLES, a surgery that he still hasn't fully recovered from?

The 0.2 difference in career yards per carry is negligible, especially when you factor in Stewart playing with injuries.The 0.1 yards per carry difference in the short yardage of 3 yards or less is nothing. How can you use that as evidence that Williams is better in short yardage.

I clearly said they both are good short-yardage runners. Williams YPC is better, therefore, I said he's better. I merely looked at their YPC in short-yardage situations.

Analyze the number of times they converted a 3 yards or less into a first down (including TDs), because that is much more important than yards per carry in a short yardage situation. On first and second down and 3 yards or less to go: Williams had 52 carries and converted 32 into first downs for 62%Stewart had 41 carries and converted 23 into first downs for 56%On 3rd and 4th down and 3 yards or less to go:Williams had 42 carries and converted 28 for 67%Stewart had 27 carries and converted 21 for 78%Stewart converted 3rd and 4th down short yardage into first downs 11% more often than Williams, so I don't see how Williams is better in short yardage.

Based on the numbers you chose to use, you'd have to conclude that Stewart is better, and if you feel that those stats are a better way to evaluate a RB as a short-yardage runner, then that is the conclusion that you should draw.However, you could also look at their ability to get 1 yard for a FD or TD when needed as a good indicator of short-yardage running ability. In those situations (needing 1 yard), here's how they fared the last 2 years:Williams-23 rushes, 21 FD/TD (91%)Stewart-31 rushes, 23 FD/TD (74%)If you were to dissect the stats in this way, Williams got the needed 1 yard 17% of the time more often than Stewart.Does any of this indicate that Williams is better, or Stewart is better? IMO, no it doesn't, and that was meant to be the point. Stewart hasn't (IMO) out-played Williams, so why should we expect him to gain more carries/touches and for Williams to lose carries/touches?

 

[Bayhawks]

He had surgery to "fix" this injury; a surgery that he hasn't recovered enough from to practice yet.

Why does this matter? Stewart was never expected to be recovered and practice this soon. The surgery was relatively minor and should take care of the problems related to his Achilles. Why is this a negative? I think it is a major positive that he had the surgery to get rid of the bone spur that was the cause of the Achilles problems. If Stewart is not practicing at or near the start of training camp, then it could be an issue since he is expected to be recovered by then.

I never said it was an issue. The other poster (I don't remember who) said he expects Stewart to get more carries (at Williams' expense) because he had surgery to repair his bum achilles. I never said it was a negative, but I don't see how you can look at this surgery as a positive,at least not at this time. He had surgery, and until he is able to use that body part, post-surgery, the way he was able to before the surgyery; you can't blindly assume that he will be 100% AND steal carries away from a Pro-Bowl RB who has been able to recover from his own surgery already.

 

[simey]

So despite all of these facts that would indicate that Williams will continue to get the majority of the carries, you believe that Stewart will garner a higher percentage of carries BECAUSE HE HAD SURGERY ON HIS ACHILLES, a surgery that he still hasn't fully recovered from?

I saw nowhere in what meanjoe wrote that showed any bias towards Williams or Stewart. I think both RB's are great and I like them both the same, and I also think that Stewart will see an increase in carries this year compared to last year. He is on track with his recovery from surgery and in May he was already working out on an exercise bike, and he is on target to be ready for training camp at the end of July. Fox knew before last season that Stewart had a bone spur pressing against his achilles that was causing him major pain. Fox and team drs also knew that he would have to have surgery for that either during the season or after the season. Stewart never practiced on Wednesdays and sometimes not on Thursdays. Stewart said he thought he would only make it through maybe six games, and Fox said that they claimed Tyrell Sutton from Green Bay a week before opening day, because they weren't sure about Stewart's availability via the season. Fox also said Stewart proved to be one tough cookie. I think it's within reason to assume that Fox used Stewart somewhat more sparingly last season due to his achilles problem. Once Williams got injured and Stewart played the primary role, he did very well except he only could play half a game against the Saints due to the pain in his achilles. Hopefully now that he has had the surgery (which he had in January), he will be good to go this year without that pain. I see no reason to think Williams won't remain the starting back, but I also think Stewart will see more carries than last year, and Fox will go with the hot hand at times. I remember when Stewart was a rookie and the Panthers were playing the Bears, Williams struggled against the Bears D, but the Bears D struggled to bring down Stewart, so Fox rode Stewart mainly in the second half. Having two stud RBs is a nice problem to have, and it's also nice that the two have a high respect for one another. A couple months ago Stewart asked:

"Was there a pair of running backs who both made the Pro Bowl in the same year?"

 

[Bayhawks]

So despite all of these facts that would indicate that Williams will continue to get the majority of the carries, you believe that Stewart will garner a higher percentage of carries BECAUSE HE HAD SURGERY ON HIS ACHILLES, a surgery that he still hasn't fully recovered from?

I saw nowhere in what meanjoe wrote that showed any bias towards Williams or Stewart. I think both RB's are great and I like them both the same, and I also think that Stewart will see an increase in carries this year compared to last year. He is on track with his recovery from surgery and in May he was already working out on an exercise bike, and he is on target to be ready for training camp at the end of July. Fox knew before last season that Stewart had a bone spur pressing against his achilles that was causing him major pain. Fox and team drs also knew that he would have to have surgery for that either during the season or after the season. Stewart never practiced on Wednesdays and sometimes not on Thursdays. Stewart said he thought he would only make it through maybe six games, and Fox said that they claimed Tyrell Sutton from Green Bay a week before opening day, because they weren't sure about Stewart's availability via the season. Fox also said Stewart proved to be one tough cookie. I think it's within reason to assume that Fox used Stewart somewhat more sparingly last season due to his achilles problem. Once Williams got injured and Stewart played the primary role, he did very well except he only could play half a game against the Saints due to the pain in his achilles. Hopefully now that he has had the surgery (which he had in January), he will be good to go this year without that pain. I see no reason to think Williams won't remain the starting back, but I also think Stewart will see more carries than last year, and Fox will go with the hot hand at times. I remember when Stewart was a rookie and the Panthers were playing the Bears, Williams struggled against the Bears D, but the Bears D struggled to bring down Stewart, so Fox rode Stewart mainly in the second half. Having two stud RBs is a nice problem to have, and it's also nice that the two have a high respect for one another. A couple months ago Stewart asked:

"Was there a pair of running backs who both made the Pro Bowl in the same year?"

But those are your thoughts (not that they're wrong or you're not entitled to them), hopes, and assumptions. Based on Fox's coaching style and practices over his tenure as HC of Carolina, he hasn't had a 50/50 split and he hasn't given the "young guy" the reigns when there is a veteran ahead of him.

I might hope and think and assume that Martz is going to turn Greg Olsen into a stud in Chicago, but the fact is that he has never used his TEs much, and despite the fact that there are reasons to be have hopeful thoughts or assumptions about Olsen's prospects in 2010, Martz's past practices as a coach should outweigh those other reasons.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

He had surgery to "fix" this injury; a surgery that he hasn't recovered enough from to practice yet.

Why does this matter? Stewart was never expected to be recovered and practice this soon. The surgery was relatively minor and should take care of the problems related to his Achilles. Why is this a negative? I think it is a major positive that he had the surgery to get rid of the bone spur that was the cause of the Achilles problems. If Stewart is not practicing at or near the start of training camp, then it could be an issue since he is expected to be recovered by then.

I never said it was an issue. The other poster (I don't remember who) said he expects Stewart to get more carries (at Williams' expense) because he had surgery to repair his bum achilles. I never said it was a negative, but I don't see how you can look at this surgery as a positive,at least not at this time. He had surgery, and until he is able to use that body part, post-surgery, the way he was able to before the surgyery; you can't blindly assume that he will be 100% AND steal carries away from a Pro-Bowl RB who has been able to recover from his own surgery already.

Considering the type of surgery and that is was relatively minor, I do think it is a positive.

 

[simey]

So despite all of these facts that would indicate that Williams will continue to get the majority of the carries, you believe that Stewart will garner a higher percentage of carries BECAUSE HE HAD SURGERY ON HIS ACHILLES, a surgery that he still hasn't fully recovered from?

I saw nowhere in what meanjoe wrote that showed any bias towards Williams or Stewart. I think both RB's are great and I like them both the same, and I also think that Stewart will see an increase in carries this year compared to last year. He is on track with his recovery from surgery and in May he was already working out on an exercise bike, and he is on target to be ready for training camp at the end of July. Fox knew before last season that Stewart had a bone spur pressing against his achilles that was causing him major pain. Fox and team drs also knew that he would have to have surgery for that either during the season or after the season. Stewart never practiced on Wednesdays and sometimes not on Thursdays. Stewart said he thought he would only make it through maybe six games, and Fox said that they claimed Tyrell Sutton from Green Bay a week before opening day, because they weren't sure about Stewart's availability via the season. Fox also said Stewart proved to be one tough cookie. I think it's within reason to assume that Fox used Stewart somewhat more sparingly last season due to his achilles problem. Once Williams got injured and Stewart played the primary role, he did very well except he only could play half a game against the Saints due to the pain in his achilles. Hopefully now that he has had the surgery (which he had in January), he will be good to go this year without that pain. I see no reason to think Williams won't remain the starting back, but I also think Stewart will see more carries than last year, and Fox will go with the hot hand at times. I remember when Stewart was a rookie and the Panthers were playing the Bears, Williams struggled against the Bears D, but the Bears D struggled to bring down Stewart, so Fox rode Stewart mainly in the second half. Having two stud RBs is a nice problem to have, and it's also nice that the two have a high respect for one another. A couple months ago Stewart asked:

"Was there a pair of running backs who both made the Pro Bowl in the same year?"

But those are your thoughts (not that they're wrong or you're not entitled to them), hopes, and assumptions. Based on Fox's coaching style and practices over his tenure as HC of Carolina, he hasn't had a 50/50 split and he hasn't given the "young guy" the reigns when there is a veteran ahead of him.

I might hope and think and assume that Martz is going to turn Greg Olsen into a stud in Chicago, but the fact is that he has never used his TEs much, and despite the fact that there are reasons to be have hopeful thoughts or assumptions about Olsen's prospects in 2010, Martz's past practices as a coach should outweigh those other reasons.

When did I say Fox was giving the reigns to the young guy? When did I say there would be a 50/50 split? I said I think Stewart will see an increase in carries this year compared to last year. By the way, everyone posting in this thread is giving their thoughts (opinions) including yourself.

 

[Bayhawks]

So despite all of these facts that would indicate that Williams will continue to get the majority of the carries, you believe that Stewart will garner a higher percentage of carries BECAUSE HE HAD SURGERY ON HIS ACHILLES, a surgery that he still hasn't fully recovered from?

I saw nowhere in what meanjoe wrote that showed any bias towards Williams or Stewart. I think both RB's are great and I like them both the same, and I also think that Stewart will see an increase in carries this year compared to last year. He is on track with his recovery from surgery and in May he was already working out on an exercise bike, and he is on target to be ready for training camp at the end of July. Fox knew before last season that Stewart had a bone spur pressing against his achilles that was causing him major pain. Fox and team drs also knew that he would have to have surgery for that either during the season or after the season. Stewart never practiced on Wednesdays and sometimes not on Thursdays. Stewart said he thought he would only make it through maybe six games, and Fox said that they claimed Tyrell Sutton from Green Bay a week before opening day, because they weren't sure about Stewart's availability via the season. Fox also said Stewart proved to be one tough cookie. I think it's within reason to assume that Fox used Stewart somewhat more sparingly last season due to his achilles problem. Once Williams got injured and Stewart played the primary role, he did very well except he only could play half a game against the Saints due to the pain in his achilles. Hopefully now that he has had the surgery (which he had in January), he will be good to go this year without that pain. I see no reason to think Williams won't remain the starting back, but I also think Stewart will see more carries than last year, and Fox will go with the hot hand at times. I remember when Stewart was a rookie and the Panthers were playing the Bears, Williams struggled against the Bears D, but the Bears D struggled to bring down Stewart, so Fox rode Stewart mainly in the second half. Having two stud RBs is a nice problem to have, and it's also nice that the two have a high respect for one another. A couple months ago Stewart asked:

"Was there a pair of running backs who both made the Pro Bowl in the same year?"

But those are your thoughts (not that they're wrong or you're not entitled to them), hopes, and assumptions. Based on Fox's coaching style and practices over his tenure as HC of Carolina, he hasn't had a 50/50 split and he hasn't given the "young guy" the reigns when there is a veteran ahead of him.

I might hope and think and assume that Martz is going to turn Greg Olsen into a stud in Chicago, but the fact is that he has never used his TEs much, and despite the fact that there are reasons to be have hopeful thoughts or assumptions about Olsen's prospects in 2010, Martz's past practices as a coach should outweigh those other reasons.

When did I say Fox was giving the reigns to the young guy? When did I say there would be a 50/50 split? I said I think Stewart will see an increase in carries this year compared to last year. By the way, everyone posting in this thread is giving their thoughts (opinions) including yourself.

You didn't. However, you did refer to meanjoe in the 1st line of your post. And meanjoe has been saying that he believes that there would be close to a 50/50 split. That is the bias towards Stewart that you said you didn't see.I know everyone, including me, is giving their thoughts. I was of the belief that was what these threads are for: to discuss those thoughts.

If you'd care to, though, can you explain why you think Stewart's carries will go up and Williams' will go down? Because unless you see the Panthers rushing more this year and BOTH RBs carries will increase, then Williams' carries would have to decrease in order for Stewart's carries to increase.

That's my question about those people who say they believe Stewart's carries will increase. How has he out-performed Williams to the point that Fox will change his coaching philosophy and stop making his veteran RB the "lead dog?"

 

[Anthony Borbely]

You didn't. However, you did refer to meanjoe in the 1st line of your post. And meanjoe has been saying that he believes that there would be close to a 50/50 split. That is the bias towards Stewart that you said you didn't see.I know everyone, including me, is giving their thoughts. I was of the belief that was what these threads are for: to discuss those thoughts.If you'd care to, though, can you explain why you think Stewart's carries will go up and Williams' will go down? Because unless you see the Panthers rushing more this year and BOTH RBs carries will increase, then Williams' carries would have to decrease in order for Stewart's carries to increase.That's my question about those people who say they believe Stewart's carries will increase. How has he out-performed Williams to the point that Fox will change his coaching philosophy and stop making his veteran RB the "lead dog?"

I'll give some of my reasons. Everything in my thought assumes Stewart is healthy and ready to go by the start of training camp. Every report I have seen says that will be the case. Obviously, people will question this until he practices and that is fine. I'm not worried at all. Anyways, here goes:1. Stewart should be healthy for the first time in his career. That is a big deal as far as I'm concerned. According to reports, the minor surgery got rid of a bone spur that was rubbing against his Achilles and aggravating it. It supposedly went well. Of course, this has yet to be proven...same as this years touches by each have yet to be proven. But waiting for proof will leave you behind the 8-ball. It is getting the proofs right that matters. whether or not you agree with my thoughts on Stewart is up to you. But I believe the health issues will be corrected. 2. Stewart showed what he had at the end of the year even though he was hurt. I think he played as well as any RB I've seen in quite some time. Note I am not saying he is the best Rb who ever played (to exaggerate some)...I'm saying he played all-pro caliber football in the games he started and earned more carries. This doesn't mean Williams deserves to lose any, but to me Stewart showed he is every bit as good as Williams, albeit in a small sample size. 3. Fox has never had 2 RBs this good. Yes, he has had Stewart and Williams for 2 years, but Stewart has always been hurt. Now, according to reports, the surgery should correct the problem and Stewart should be healthy for the first time. Nobody can say for sure what Fox will do because nobody has seen what Fox has done with 2 healthy stud RBs, nor can anyone read his mind. Maybe circumstances are why Fox has never split carries right down the middle. I'll go a step further and say that the game to game touches will be all over the place because I think Fox will ride the hot hand assuming both are healthy. He would be wise to keep both as fresh as possible so he can run the daylights out of the ball. No matter what history says, it doesn't mean the future will be exactly like the past. I personally think Stewart is every bit as talented as Williams and also believe the best thing for a team to do with 2 elite RBs is to keep them as fresh as possible. I don't think Stewart has to outperform Williams to get more carries, but the Stewart who started at the end of the year was every bit as good as Williams. Where is it etched in stone that Williams has to get more carries than Stewart? Have the coaches specifically said either RB will get x amount of touches? Maybe they want Stewart to get the ball more. Maybe they want a 50-50 split. Maybe they don't. I'm not a mind reader, and I'm aware that the best predictor of the future is past history, but I also think circumstances cause things to change and that is what I think will happen here. If you want to just use past history, then you don't ever need to predict the future because it will never change.

 

[simey]

You didn't. However, you did refer to meanjoe in the 1st line of your post. And meanjoe has been saying that he believes that there would be close to a 50/50 split. That is the bias towards Stewart that you said you didn't see.I know everyone, including me, is giving their thoughts. I was of the belief that was what these threads are for: to discuss those thoughts.If you'd care to, though, can you explain why you think Stewart's carries will go up and Williams' will go down? Because unless you see the Panthers rushing more this year and BOTH RBs carries will increase, then Williams' carries would have to decrease in order for Stewart's carries to increase.That's my question about those people who say they believe Stewart's carries will increase. How has he out-performed Williams to the point that Fox will change his coaching philosophy and stop making his veteran RB the "lead dog?"

I saw what meanjoe wrote about the 50/50 split, but I don't think that is showing bias towards Stewart. Just because some people see more of an equal split does not mean they are for or against one of the RBs.I thought I was clear enough in my opinion on why I think Stewart will see more playing time. I think he was used more sparingly last year due to his achilles problem, and since that was nipped in the bud, I think he will get more playing time this year. I also think the carries by whichever RB could be determined at times by the one who is the hottest in that game. Just because I believe Stewart will get more playing time this year compared to last year, does not mean that DeAngelo has lost his collar as the lead dog (lead cat).

 

[Bayhawks]

You didn't. However, you did refer to meanjoe in the 1st line of your post. And meanjoe has been saying that he believes that there would be close to a 50/50 split. That is the bias towards Stewart that you said you didn't see.I know everyone, including me, is giving their thoughts. I was of the belief that was what these threads are for: to discuss those thoughts.If you'd care to, though, can you explain why you think Stewart's carries will go up and Williams' will go down? Because unless you see the Panthers rushing more this year and BOTH RBs carries will increase, then Williams' carries would have to decrease in order for Stewart's carries to increase.That's my question about those people who say they believe Stewart's carries will increase. How has he out-performed Williams to the point that Fox will change his coaching philosophy and stop making his veteran RB the "lead dog?"

I saw what meanjoe wrote about the 50/50 split, but I don't think that is showing bias towards Stewart. Just because some people see more of an equal split does not mean they are for or against one of the RBs.I thought I was clear enough in my opinion on why I think Stewart will see more playing time. I think he was used more sparingly last year due to his achilles problem, and since that was nipped in the bud, I think he will get more playing time this year. I also think the carries by whichever RB could be determined at times by the one who is the hottest in that game. Just because I believe Stewart will get more playing time this year compared to last year, does not mean that DeAngelo has lost his collar as the lead dog (lead cat).

I understand what you are saying, and I'm not trying to beat a dead horse.However, for Stewart to get more carries, Williams has to lose some, unless both RBs increase. And even if that's the case, for Stewart to move into a 50/50 type split, William is going to lose a percentage of the carries.I agree that Stewart is very talented, and I agree that if he had a RB who he was clearly out-performing, then he would be getting more PT. However, that's not the case. Williams has been either Stewart's equal, or superior (we don't need to argue about that-we can just agree that they're both great RBs). That being the case, you have to look at past history, IMO, and that would indicate that Fox will keep the same kind of split as he has a history of doing.

 

[simey]

No matter what history says, it doesn't mean the future will be exactly like the past.

 

[Ray_T]

I also think that people seem to be overlooking DeAngelo this season. I think a lot of that has to do with Stewart, but Fox is known for being intensely loyal to his veteran players. So as long as DeAngelo is on the field, Stewart isn't going to get any more touches than he has the last two seasons. The only other issue I can think of is that I remember they didn't really have any quality backups for their o-line last year and I don't know if they've addressed that or not.

I don't think the number of touches each back got last year had to do with Fox loyalty. I think it had to do with Stewart playing on a bum achilles all season long. He had surgery during the offseason and so did DeAngelo. DeAngelo is back practicing, but Stewart hasn't started yet. If Stewart's achilles is healthy by the start of the season, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split. They also have an unique close friendship, and both want each other to play and do well. There is no ego clashing between those two.The backup players that played on the OL near the end of last year did a good job.

I think that you're wrong about the reasons why Fox split the touches the way he did and to assume that it'll be fifty-fifty this season. He is loyal to his veterans. That's why he stuck with Delhomme so long last year. And DeShuan Foster a couple years before. He's a conservative coach who believes in defense and running the football with two backs. In seven seasons with the panthers he's NEVER split the carries straight down the middle. When his starter was better than the backup, the starter got more carries. When the starter and backup were equally good, the starter got more carries. When the backup was better than the starter, the starter got more carries. You don't think it's more reasonable to think that in one of the league's most successful rushing offenses that he's going to split the carries between the same two backs behind the same offensive line in the same offensive scheme the same way he has the last two seasons? I think that is much, much more likely than to start projecting that he's going to divide the workload in a way he has never done before.

You are right about the track record. I think regardless of talent and regardless of your and my opinions on the matter, DeAngelo will get the majority of the carries until such time as he shows he cannot get the job done anymore.The panthers coach has a long history of sticking with the veteran and I think this situation is no different.

 

[Bayhawks]

You didn't. However, you did refer to meanjoe in the 1st line of your post. And meanjoe has been saying that he believes that there would be close to a 50/50 split. That is the bias towards Stewart that you said you didn't see.

I know everyone, including me, is giving their thoughts. I was of the belief that was what these threads are for: to discuss those thoughts.

If you'd care to, though, can you explain why you think Stewart's carries will go up and Williams' will go down? Because unless you see the Panthers rushing more this year and BOTH RBs carries will increase, then Williams' carries would have to decrease in order for Stewart's carries to increase.

That's my question about those people who say they believe Stewart's carries will increase. How has he out-performed Williams to the point that Fox will change his coaching philosophy and stop making his veteran RB the "lead dog?"

I'll give some of my reasons. Everything in my thought assumes Stewart is healthy and ready to go by the start of training camp. Every report I have seen says that will be the case. Obviously, people will question this until he practices and that is fine. I'm not worried at all. Anyways, here goes:1. Stewart should be healthy for the first time in his career. That is a big deal as far as I'm concerned. According to reports, the minor surgery got rid of a bone spur that was rubbing against his Achilles and aggravating it. It supposedly went well. Of course, this has yet to be proven...same as this years touches by each have yet to be proven. But waiting for proof will leave you behind the 8-ball. It is getting the proofs right that matters. whether or not you agree with my thoughts on Stewart is up to you. But I believe the health issues will be corrected.

2. Stewart showed what he had at the end of the year even though he was hurt. I think he played as well as any RB I've seen in quite some time. Note I am not saying he is the best Rb who ever played (to exaggerate some)...I'm saying he played all-pro caliber football in the games he started and earned more carries. This doesn't mean Williams deserves to lose any, but to me Stewart showed he is every bit as good as Williams, albeit in a small sample size.

3. Fox has never had 2 RBs this good. Yes, he has had Stewart and Williams for 2 years, but Stewart has always been hurt. Now, according to reports, the surgery should correct the problem and Stewart should be healthy for the first time. Nobody can say for sure what Fox will do because nobody has seen what Fox has done with 2 healthy stud RBs, nor can anyone read his mind. Maybe circumstances are why Fox has never split carries right down the middle. I'll go a step further and say that the game to game touches will be all over the place because I think Fox will ride the hot hand assuming both are healthy. He would be wise to keep both as fresh as possible so he can run the daylights out of the ball.

No matter what history says, it doesn't mean the future will be exactly like the past. I personally think Stewart is every bit as talented as Williams and also believe the best thing for a team to do with 2 elite RBs is to keep them as fresh as possible. I don't think Stewart has to outperform Williams to get more carries, but the Stewart who started at the end of the year was every bit as good as Williams. Where is it etched in stone that Williams has to get more carries than Stewart? Have the coaches specifically said either RB will get x amount of touches? Maybe they want Stewart to get the ball more. Maybe they want a 50-50 split. Maybe they don't. I'm not a mind reader, and I'm aware that the best predictor of the future is past history, but I also think circumstances cause things to change and that is what I think will happen here.



If you want to just use past history, then you don't ever need to predict the future because it will never change.

I Agree with the bolded, but predicting change just for the sake of change isn't always the best plan, either.When Michael Turner displayed his skills in 2005 & 2006, Turner didn't change from his normal habit of having 1 stud RB, just because he had another talented RB. He rode LT in 2007, like he had done previously, and used Turner like he had a history of using his RB2, which is to spell his RB1.

My point is I get why people feel Stewart is good enough to warrant more touches and talented enough to be productive with those touches. However, I don't agree with any of the "explanations" as to why Williams should lose touches. If someone had a reason that made sense to me, that would be different. But as it is, it seems like people are predicting change (to Stewart's touches or %) just for the sake of predicting change.

 

[simey]

However, for Stewart to get more carries, Williams has to lose some, unless both RBs increase. And even if that's the case, for Stewart to move into a 50/50 type split, William is going to lose a percentage of the carries.

I expect the Panthers to run and throw more this year, because I expect the offense to be on the field more this year compared to last year. Matt Moore recently commented on how the offense has some completely different concepts to it this year. I'm excited to see the offense this coming season. If they can just manage to convert on 3rd down that is a triumph.

 

[Bayhawks]

However, for Stewart to get more carries, Williams has to lose some, unless both RBs increase. And even if that's the case, for Stewart to move into a 50/50 type split, William is going to lose a percentage of the carries.

I expect the Panthers to run and throw more this year, because I expect the offense to be on the field more this year compared to last year. Matt Moore recently commented on how the offense has some completely different concepts to it this year. I'm excited to see the offense this coming season. If they can just manage to convert on 3rd down that is a triumph.

I hope you're right, because Delhomme killed Smith's value in my dynasty league last year.

 

[Grahamburn]

I too think maybe the Jonathan Stewart and the DeAngelo Williams threads should be merged so I guess I'll post this in both of them.

The first thing that popped out at me about the 2009 season and the Carolina Panthers running game is the fact that other than the Minnesota game in week 15 (where DeAngelo was injured and shut down for the year), DeAngelo outrushed Stewart in every single contest. All of them. Every game in which both backs were healthy and on the field, DeAngelo led the team in rushing regardless of carry totals. Those of you touting Stewart expecting a 50/50 split should read that again.

That's very telling about how the Carolina coaching staff sees the running game when both backs are healthy. I realize that Stewart is an extremely talented player, but so is Williams. They're both going to get carries. The "if DeAngelo gets hurt Stewart is a beast argument" goes both ways. The point is that when they're healthy, Williams is clearly the lead back.

I've read several posts about how Stewart has earned more playing time with his late season performances showcasing his ability to carry the load. Well, the problem with that is how well DeAngelo has also played in the last two seasons. I can't see the Carolina coaching staff changing philosophies for 2010 because Stewart had some big games at the end of 2009.

The argument that Stewart was nicked up all season doesn't really hold water either. Why wouldn't the Panthers just shut him down at the end of the year like they did with DeAngelo? Stewart was able to play through the pain and carry the load to some big games. The coaching staff wasn't holding him back during the season because of injury while DeAngelo was in the lineup.

These big games for Stewart were in the fantasy playoffs late in the season where fantasy players have great, yet short, memories.

I really like DeAngelo in the 7-9 range in the first round of a redraft league. He's an extremely talented back, catches the ball well, the Panthers are a run first team with a great line, and they play a soft schedule.

Stewart's carries and big games seem inconsistent to me. Unless DeAngelo is injured it's difficult to count on him for consistent fantasy points. I'd be ecstatic with him as a RB3. He'll approach 1,000 yards and double digit TDs, but you'll never know when they're coming.

DeAngelo Williams: 255 carries 1,300 yards - 40 receptions 320 yards 12 total TDs

Jonathan Stewart: 200 carries 980 yards - 20 receptions 140 yards 12 total TDs

 

[Cawbird]

I'm still confused as to why a lot of posters here are giving stats that show that Stewart will get equal or more TD's this season. Most have agreed that Williams is just as talented, has outperformed him when both have been on the field, and Stewart will be on the short side if carries, even if it is closer to a 50/50 spilt.

Williams - 240 / 1224 / 11tds - 30 rec / 235 / 3 tds

Stewart - 220 / 1050 / 8 tds - 20 rec / 170 / 1 td

 

[jurb26]

No matter what history says, it doesn't mean the future will be exactly like the past.

The problem with this is that it's been said for about 4 years now in regards to the Car/Fox situation and it's never changed. As a matter of fact I'd be willing to bet that every single person in the shark pool has been burned at one point or another by this very logic as it relates to Fox and Car. As I recall Anthony was 2 years ago when Stewart was a rookie. At least I would assume that by the context of his posts back then. I was burned by the Foster days myself so I too am guilty as charged. I'll be content to believe it when I see it. You may think that puts me "behind the 8-ball" but I think there are plenty of great RBs available around the same time as Stewart that I'm not all that concerned to take the conservative approach to this situation and stick with historical trends.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Some great analysis and projections from some savvy posters on this thread. That said, I have a bad feeling for the Carolina running game this year. The defense has regressed since last year and it wasn't very good to begin with. Both the coach and GM of the Panthers are lame ducks this year on the last year of their contracts respectively.

I fear that if they start slow, which I think will happen due to poor defense, Clausen will be thrown into the fray. Once they are behind by 14 in the 2nd half, they Carolina running game will falter as they must go to the pass. Williams in the 2nd and JStew in the 3rd is too high for thier ADPs considering they vulture each others touches. I think that they are overvalued at current ADP, and it will be long year for Panther fans.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I think some of the projections in here are too conservative. I'm bullish and will project accordingly.

Rush: 280 carries, 1,450 yards, 15 td's.

Rec: 35 receptions, 300 yards, 3 td's.

 

[TWP]

And new news on Williams coming out of camp and pre-season? Have people revised their views on the likely split of carries?

 

[purestrength]

And new news on Williams coming out of camp and pre-season? Have people revised their views on the likely split of carries?

I don't think I've seen too much news on Williams since camp started. Any Carolina homers want to chime in?

 

[sgtrobo]

yeah, this is a huge issue here, the Carolina RB situation is a potential fantasy goldmine

 

[purestrength]

yeah, this is a huge issue here, the Carolina RB situation is a potential fantasy goldmine

Agreed. I'm in the Williams camp, believing if he stays healthy, Stewart won't be worth his ADP in redrafts.I recently passed on Stewart at the end of the fifth round in an FPC draft in favor of Arian Foster and the other drafters probably thought I was crazy. But I don't see Stewart being consistently productive FF-wise if Williams is starting.Now if Williams get injured again, that's another story (obviously).Anyway, most of the posts in this thread are from June and July, so fresh insight would be appreciated.

 

[shader]

I don't think there's any fresh insight to be gained.

Both backs are studs. Both backs become top 3-4 backs if the other back gets injured. If not, i think it's a safe bet that Deangelo gets more carries and yards, and Stewart gets more TD's.

 

[Magnum]

Any new opinions on the Carolina RB situation? Offense looks poor, but.......it's preseason. Stew is a little gimpy, but.....we've seen this before. Homers? Anybody?

 

[BassNBrew]

Any new opinions on the Carolina RB situation? Offense looks poor, but.......it's preseason. Stew is a little gimpy, but.....we've seen this before. Homers? Anybody?

John Kasey is the real fantasy steal. I'm on my 8th draft of the year and haven't rostered either Carolina back as I recall.