DeAngelo Williams - What Am I Missing? (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

I get the Williams is never going to get the touches and fantasy production he did 5 years ago, but even splitting the workload with Stewart he's been a decent fantasy back. Working with limited touches, he still ranked as the #26 and #23 fantasy RB the past two season. Stewart hasn't exactly been a beacon of heath and is already banged up and we are not even up to training camp yet.

As far as I can tell, Williams is not nursing some long term injury, didn't have off-season surgery, is not looking at some off-field or PED related suspension, and just redid his contract to ensure he stayed with the team. And as I already mentioned, he ranked 26th and 23rd the past two seasons.

Given all that, here are the current fantasy rankings from various and sundry sources:

NFL.com - Smith 28

FBG - Waldman 30

NFL.com - Rank 31

FBG - Wimer 32

FBG - Holloway 32

FBG - Hicks 33

FBG - Pasquino 33

FBG - Cummings 35

FBG - Garcia 35

FBG - Harstad 35

NFL.com - Dameshek 35

MFL 36

FBG - Baker 37

Fantasy Sharks 38

FBG - Haseley 38

FBG - Henry 38

FBG - Brimacombe 38

FantasyPros 38

NFL.com - Grant 38

FBG - Grant 39

Eisenberg - CBS 40

FBG - Bryant & Dodds 40

FBG - Hester 40

FBG - Trembley 40

KFFL 41

NFL.com - Fabiano 42

ESPN 43

Ricahrd - CBS 44

Zegura - CBS 44

FBG - Wood 44

NY Times 45

FBG - Borbeley 45

FBG - Parsons 47

FBG - Tefertiller 50+

Average Ranking 38

So what am I missing that Williams has fallen off the map and is so out of favor these days?

 

[Two Deep]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to phase Williams out.

 

[Anarchy99]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Decent fantasy back? Say what?? Perhaps in a best ball format? I'm not even sure how valuable he'd be there. Week-2-Week leagues he's close to waiver fodder.

The guy had 527 rush yards, 3 rush TD's (2 receiving) during Weeks 1-16 at a 3.47 ypc clip. Figure few teams even benefited from his Week 17 outburst w/o Stewart. I'm sure someone with MFL can figure it out quick, but his rank for the fantasy season (Weeks 1-16) was significantly lower. I think Williams probably saved his roster spot with the Week 17 performance, but I don't think it really improves his fantasy football stock any for the future.

Sure, if John Stewart can't get/stay healthy, you can raise expectations. There's a reason Williams is ranked that low....by that many people. Won't play 3rd downs, 4th in the pecking order for goalline carries.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

A RB can end up being ranked #26 or #23 after the season simply by remaining healthy. Is a 30 year old backup RB some one that you can feel comfortable starting most weeks? Likely not. From memory my guess was that he was basically useless most weeks with a couple of decent to good games sprinkled in and perhaps one or two big games.

 

[jesseasi]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

I had expected that DeAngelo would be a June 1st cut. But the cap hit to cut him was going to be like 8 million. So instead they redid his deal and are paying him like 5.5 mil this year. Carolina signed him to one of the worst contracts ever. Because of the bonuses and guaranteed money - he would be way to expensive to cut.

 

[lod01]

Terrible coaching before (John Fox) and ever since his 20 TD season (let's let someone different run teh ball every play).

Dude can have a long career but fantasy wise, forget it as long as he is in Carolina.

 

[squistion]

I think it is his age combined with the perceived situation. A lot of people don't want to touch a 30 year old RB. Yeah, I know Steven Jackson also turns 30 this year but he is undisputed starter in Atlanta.

Add to that Stewart's diehard supporters (see EBF) keep pimping him as breaking out this year or one of the best investments in RBs one can make, so a lot of people are still buying into this irrational Stewart hype, which impacts Williams value.

 

[humpback]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

Let's put that into perspective- that was a game against the worst rushing defense in the league, a team who gave up more total yards on the season than any team in NFL history. Mike Tolbert had 3 rushing TDs in the game, but I don't think anyone is saying he should be a top 10 RB.

Using your numbers, he's finished 26th and 23rd the last two seasons, and last year Stewart missed around half the season. I know he isn't the model of health, but it's likely he plays more than that this year, not less. They also drafted a RB late, and Williams is another year older.

If you look at the game log, he was pretty much useless (for ff) most of the games. If/when Stewart is out, he's startable, but that's about it. Most of those rankings have him in the 30's, which seems about right to me for a guy who needs at least one injury (not to himself) to have much value.

 

[JPeso]

I'll echo the PPG sentiment, I play exclusively PPR and DeAngelo finished 34th, that high because he had 34.30 in week 17 when FF was over in most leagues (42nd PPR PPG through 16 weeks).

He had 7 games under 5 points. He had an additional 4 games under 10 points. When you weight age in the equation, there's not a chance I'd draft him in the top 45-50 backs - much more upside elsewhere. Projecting an increase in touches and thus production is something I would advise against.

 

[cdubz]

Once you get out of the weekly startable backs, one of the most important factors is upside. I am willing to take Ben Tate in the top 35 RBs not because I think he is likely to finish in the top 35, but because I know if Foster goes down Tate is a borderline RB1. I think people may have a hard time seeing the upside with Deangelo given the reliance on Cam and Tolbert in short yardage situations. I think around RB 40 is probably about right.

ETA: Also will be about 30.5 when the season rolls around. Very few RBs are able to keep up a high level of play let alone still be in the league after 30.

 

[FF Ninja]

Wait, what's the problem here? He finished RB29 last year in weeks 1 - 16 with Stewart missing a lot of time. Most people have him ranked in the 30's. Why is this an issue? When you are drafting a guy around that spot, a lot of the time you are swinging for the fences. Trying to catch someone with upside. DeAngelo has almost no upside. He's not going to overtake Stewart in some camp competition or anything. You are basically drafting him knowing he won't ever crack your starting lineup unless something goes wrong with at least one of your starters. AND you're in trouble if he's in there. No thanks.

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

Unfortunately Dwill will always be a better NFL RB then fantasy. He reminded everyone last year what he brings to the table when given the ball with any consistency after the Panthers finally scrapped that ridiculous Run - Read offense they ran most of the season. He's always been the superior RB to Stewart but with such a deep RB stable, Newton still rushing in the RZ, it's tough to take him. Couple with the perception with many esp Dyno players minds that he holds no value, you most likely are better off making another choice. I also wouldn't go near Stewart ( ever ) either, even if he has dropped to a more reasonable price then prior years.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I get the Williams is never going to get the touches and fantasy production he did 5 years ago, but even splitting the workload with Stewart he's been a decent fantasy back. Working with limited touches, he still ranked as the #26 and #23 fantasy RB the past two season. Stewart hasn't exactly been a beacon of heath and is already banged up and we are not even up to training camp yet.

As far as I can tell, Williams is not nursing some long term injury, didn't have off-season surgery, is not looking at some off-field or PED related suspension, and just redid his contract to ensure he stayed with the team. And as I already mentioned, he ranked 26th and 23rd the past two seasons.

Given all that, here are the current fantasy rankings from various and sundry sources:

NFL.com - Smith 28

FBG - Waldman 30

NFL.com - Rank 31

FBG - Wimer 32

FBG - Holloway 32

FBG - Hicks 33

FBG - Pasquino 33

FBG - Cummings 35

FBG - Garcia 35

FBG - Harstad 35

NFL.com - Dameshek 35

MFL 36

FBG - Baker 37

Fantasy Sharks 38

FBG - Haseley 38

FBG - Henry 38

FBG - Brimacombe 38

FantasyPros 38

NFL.com - Grant 38

FBG - Grant 39

Eisenberg - CBS 40

FBG - Bryant & Dodds 40

FBG - Hester 40

FBG - Trembley 40

KFFL 41

NFL.com - Fabiano 42

ESPN 43

Ricahrd - CBS 44

Zegura - CBS 44

FBG - Wood 44

NY Times 45

FBG - Borbeley 45

FBG - Parsons 47

FBG - Tefertiller 50+

Average Ranking 38

So what am I missing that Williams has fallen off the map and is so out of favor these days?

There's a couple of factors at play. The first is age- RBs peak at 27 or 28, and generally decline from there. What DeAngelo did at 28 and 29 is relevant, but we should generally expect a reduction in the caliber of his play from that baseline at age 30. The second is that Expectations is not Expected Value. It is perfectly rational to value an RB who we "expect" to do worse than DeAngelo this season over Williams if that RB has a sufficiently high upside. If a guy has a 10% chance at 200 VBD and a 90% chance at 0 VBD, he's more valuable than a guy who has a 100% chance at 15 VBD, even though the latter guy would be expected to outscore the former guy nine times out of ten. The presence of Stewart and Cam, the decline in the Carolina offense, and Father Time all serve to limit DeAngelo's perceived upside. Not many people are that interested in drafting old RBs who have 14 combined points of VBD over the last two seasons (and needed a monster week 17 game against the worst defense in the league just to get that), and who might have a pretty decent chance at being the worst fantasy starter in the entire league at RB in 12-team, 2-RB leagues.

 

[Anarchy99]

I agree Williams is a bit of feast or famine. In my PPR league, he ranked in the weekly Top 30 roughly half the time. Given the size of the league and the starting roster requirements, there are usually 40-50 RBs in starting lineups each week. Williams ranked in the Top 30-36 several other weeks in each season.

Is a fantasy starter under "regular" circumstances (ie Stewart is healthy)? No. But he's a decent fantasy flex guy, injury/bye week fill-in/depth guy. If it does happen that his Panthers teammates are nicked up, he has proven to be more than capable when he gets 15 touches a game (he's averaged 15 fantasy ppg in 0 ppr leagues in games with 15 or more touches).

The point being, there are other backs getting taken ahead of him that are part time players or straight back ups. Williams has shown that a) he can perform when given the chance, b) given that he's had multiple big weeks each year that he will have weeks where he will get the ball a fair amount, and c) at the end of the season he almost always ends up ranking way higher than where he was dradted.

 

[Anarchy99]

I get the Williams is never going to get the touches and fantasy production he did 5 years ago, but even splitting the workload with Stewart he's been a decent fantasy back. Working with limited touches, he still ranked as the #26 and #23 fantasy RB the past two season. Stewart hasn't exactly been a beacon of heath and is already banged up and we are not even up to training camp yet.

As far as I can tell, Williams is not nursing some long term injury, didn't have off-season surgery, is not looking at some off-field or PED related suspension, and just redid his contract to ensure he stayed with the team. And as I already mentioned, he ranked 26th and 23rd the past two seasons.

Given all that, here are the current fantasy rankings from various and sundry sources:

NFL.com - Smith 28

FBG - Waldman 30

NFL.com - Rank 31

FBG - Wimer 32

FBG - Holloway 32

FBG - Hicks 33

FBG - Pasquino 33

FBG - Cummings 35

FBG - Garcia 35

FBG - Harstad 35

NFL.com - Dameshek 35

MFL 36

FBG - Baker 37

Fantasy Sharks 38

FBG - Haseley 38

FBG - Henry 38

FBG - Brimacombe 38

FantasyPros 38

NFL.com - Grant 38

FBG - Grant 39

Eisenberg - CBS 40

FBG - Bryant & Dodds 40

FBG - Hester 40

FBG - Trembley 40

KFFL 41

NFL.com - Fabiano 42

ESPN 43

Ricahrd - CBS 44

Zegura - CBS 44

FBG - Wood 44

NY Times 45

FBG - Borbeley 45

FBG - Parsons 47

FBG - Tefertiller 50+

Average Ranking 38

So what am I missing that Williams has fallen off the map and is so out of favor these days?

There's a couple of factors at play. The first is age- RBs peak at 27 or 28, and generally decline from there. What DeAngelo did at 28 and 29 is relevant, but we should generally expect a reduction in the caliber of his play from that baseline at age 30. The second is that Expectations is not Expected Value. It is perfectly rational to value an RB who we "expect" to do worse than DeAngelo this season over Williams if that RB has a sufficiently high upside. If a guy has a 10% chance at 200 VBD and a 90% chance at 0 VBD, he's more valuable than a guy who has a 100% chance at 15 VBD, even though the latter guy would be expected to outscore the former guy nine times out of ten. The presence of Stewart and Cam, the decline in the Carolina offense, and Father Time all serve to limit DeAngelo's perceived upside. Not many people are that interested in drafting old RBs who have 14 combined points of VBD over the last two seasons (and needed a monster week 17 game against the worst defense in the league just to get that), and who might have a pretty decent chance at being the worst fantasy starter in the entire league at RB in 12-team, 2-RB leagues.

30 year old backs are not automatically worthless. In the past 10 years, there were 30 RB that were 30 years or older that averaged at least 10 fantasy ppg (0 ppr). Two scored 300 points, nine scored 200 points, and 25 scored at least 150 points on the season.

Certainly people can't point to Williams having logged too many miles from too many carries in his career as to projecting a major decline in production. He's had 200 or more carries in a year exactly two times. He ranked 55th out of 147 RB with at least 100 carries in terms of ypc. It's not like his play has fallen off to the point where people will say he can't get it done. We saw what hid did against the Saints (210 rushing yards). If given the same opportunity this year, would he have dropped to 40 yards rushing in the same game because he suddenly hit the wall at 30? Of course not.

 

[msudaisy26]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

How come every time someone defends a running back they always say did you see what he did against the Saints?

 

[Warhogs]

He seems to not have much upside and his age makes him a risk for downside. Too productive to cut and no trade value.

I tried to trade him in a dynasty league at the deadline last year. I had a team that had a horrible start and recovered to be mediocre but miss the playoffs. At the deadline I tried to trade him for the rookie handcuff to my starters Marshawn Lynch and Ray Rice and got shot down by both. THey did not seem even mildly interested. I figured if I couldn't get a Piecre or Turbin level RB back for him I may as well keep him.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I get the Williams is never going to get the touches and fantasy production he did 5 years ago, but even splitting the workload with Stewart he's been a decent fantasy back. Working with limited touches, he still ranked as the #26 and #23 fantasy RB the past two season. Stewart hasn't exactly been a beacon of heath and is already banged up and we are not even up to training camp yet. As far as I can tell, Williams is not nursing some long term injury, didn't have off-season surgery, is not looking at some off-field or PED related suspension, and just redid his contract to ensure he stayed with the team. And as I already mentioned, he ranked 26th and 23rd the past two seasons. Given all that, here are the current fantasy rankings from various and sundry sources: NFL.com - Smith 28FBG - Waldman 30NFL.com - Rank 31FBG - Wimer 32FBG - Holloway 32FBG - Hicks 33FBG - Pasquino 33FBG - Cummings 35FBG - Garcia 35FBG - Harstad 35NFL.com - Dameshek 35MFL 36FBG - Baker 37Fantasy Sharks 38FBG - Haseley 38FBG - Henry 38FBG - Brimacombe 38FantasyPros 38NFL.com - Grant 38FBG - Grant 39Eisenberg - CBS 40FBG - Bryant & Dodds 40FBG - Hester 40FBG - Trembley 40KFFL 41NFL.com - Fabiano 42ESPN 43Ricahrd - CBS 44Zegura - CBS 44FBG - Wood 44NY Times 45FBG - Borbeley 45FBG - Parsons 47FBG - Tefertiller 50+Average Ranking 38 So what am I missing that Williams has fallen off the map and is so out of favor these days?

There's a couple of factors at play. The first is age- RBs peak at 27 or 28, and generally decline from there. What DeAngelo did at 28 and 29 is relevant, but we should generally expect a reduction in the caliber of his play from that baseline at age 30. The second is that Expectations is not Expected Value. It is perfectly rational to value an RB who we "expect" to do worse than DeAngelo this season over Williams if that RB has a sufficiently high upside. If a guy has a 10% chance at 200 VBD and a 90% chance at 0 VBD, he's more valuable than a guy who has a 100% chance at 15 VBD, even though the latter guy would be expected to outscore the former guy nine times out of ten. The presence of Stewart and Cam, the decline in the Carolina offense, and Father Time all serve to limit DeAngelo's perceived upside. Not many people are that interested in drafting old RBs who have 14 combined points of VBD over the last two seasons (and needed a monster week 17 game against the worst defense in the league just to get that), and who might have a pretty decent chance at being the worst fantasy starter in the entire league at RB in 12-team, 2-RB leagues.

30 year old backs are not automatically worthless. In the past 10 years, there were 30 RB that were 30 years or older that averaged at least 10 fantasy ppg (0 ppr). Two scored 300 points, nine scored 200 points, and 25 scored at least 150 points on the season. Certainly people can't point to Williams having logged too many miles from too many carries in his career as to projecting a major decline in production. He's had 200 or more carries in a year exactly two times. He ranked 55th out of 147 RB with at least 100 carries in terms of ypc. It's not like his play has fallen off to the point where people will say he can't get it done. We saw what hid did against the Saints (210 rushing yards). If given the same opportunity this year, would he have dropped to 40 yards rushing in the same game because he suddenly hit the wall at 30? Of course not.

If I thought he was automatically worthless, I wouldn't have him 35th. Out of curiosity, where do you feel he deserves to be ranked?

 

[Leonidas]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

How come every time someone defends a running back they always say did you see what he did against the Saints?

Exactly what I was thinking. This "but he had 200 yards week 17 against the Saints" thing is sounding an awful lot like the YouTube video posted in the *David Wilson* thread where the highlights were basically all returns or against New Orleans. I'm not taking him where he is generally available, I'd rather go for guys that seem to have more upside.

 

[Donnybrook]

It has more to do with the competition for touches than age. Frank Gore is 30 and his ADP is round and half higher than it was last year.

 

[Anarchy99]

Let's go about this another way. Dodds, Woods, Henry, and Trembley all have Williams projected between 94-97 fantasy points on the season and playing 15 or 16 games. Since 2007 (his 2nd season), Williams has scored 199, 284, 179, 48, 139, and 134 points. The year with 48 points he only played in 6 games so he probably would have ended up around 130 like the past two years.

Maybe I am way off on this one, but it just seems that people are downgrading Williams for no real reason other than he hit 30. The Panthers situation has not changed dramatically, so IMO we should expect more of the same then Williams seeing less work and being less productive . . . even if he is now a old man of 30.

 

[Cjw_55106]

Look on the bright side Anarchy, you should be able to get him in every draft if you want to.

 

[TheCommish]

Through 10 games last season, Williams averaged 8 carries and 0.5 catches per game. Little to no value unless Stewart goes down. Worth drafting? Probably (late). But not in the top 25 or 30 RBs.

He was on three teams in my league last year, and was on the waiver wire for 4 straight weeks at one point. In the weeks he was on a roster, he was started one time. And he rewarded his owner with a whopping 7.8 point performance.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

PPR:

As JPeso posted above, he was RB42 through 16 weeks (the fantasy season) in PPR leagues.

And keep in mind, Stewart did not play in 6 of those 16 games.

I'd put my money on Williams finishing below RB42 than above it.

PPR: (Not adjusted for negative points for fumbles lost, if any)

Williams was on pace for 86 FP before his final 4 games (again, all w/o Stewart out there)

Williams scored 56% of his FP in the final 4 games.

I think RB35 is being more than generous in a PPR format. I don't think Stewart will ever live up to previous hype, but I do expect him to play in more than the 9 games he did last year.

 

[Anarchy99]

If I thought he was automatically worthless, I wouldn't have him 35th.Out of curiosity, where do you feel he deserves to be ranked?

I used to rank players differently than the other FBG staffers, as I ranked players based on how I thought they would wind up based on point totals, not in order of how I would draft them. Joe Flacco would be the perfect example. He would always rank higher at the end of the season then I would ever draft him, but I still ranked him fairly high just based on the fact that his year end rankings indicated he was consistently a Top 15 QB (but I wouldn't draft him in the Top 20 QBs).

I haven't done rankings for this season (and likely won't), but I would guess I would have him in the draft range of RB28-30 range. That's not that far different then where you have him, but half the people I included rankings for had him in the 40-50 range (which IMO is too low). I suspect Williams will end up the year in the Top 20-25 backs when all is said in done, as I suspect he will get the ball a little more than expected and Stewart will have some sort of nagging injury that will get Deangelo a few starts (and a full time workload in those games).

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

You're right. You should grab him as your RB2 and not worry what anyone on here says. BTW, any sports open in your league?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

How come every time someone defends a running back they always say did you see what he did against the Saints?

Exactly what I was thinking. This "but he had 200 yards week 17 against the Saints" thing is sounding an awful lot like the YouTube video posted in the Chris Ivory thread where the highlights were basically all returns or against New Orleans. I'm not taking him where he is generally available, I'd rather go for guys that seem to have more upside.

Was it practice footage?

 

[Anarchy99]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

You're right. You should grab him as your RB2 and not worry what anyone on here says. BTW, any sports open in your league?

Come on down if you're up for it. I only worked here for 10 years, I'm guessing I have an informed opinion.

Every year it seems like there's always a bucket of guys that are too old and will lose their jobs. Bruce, Kennison, Mason, Driver, RWilliams, McGahee, Dunn, Martin, etc. I guess people think that those types of players are always on the DO NOT DRAFT list for some reason.

 

[Donnybrook]

Probably not the desired intent but after reading this thread I have come away convinced that Ben Tate is currently undervalued.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

PPR: DeAngelo averaged 5.1 FPG while Stewart was healthy in 2012.

Serious question: You do know Jonathan Stewart is still on the Panthers, correct? I was going to assume you did, but from some of your comments in this thread I'm not entirely sure you do. Perhaps you didn't know he was injured last season and missed 7 games? Maybe that's your answer to what you're missing?

I think some guys have asked point blank where you'd rank him. Do you expect Stewart to miss 7 games (or more) in 2013?

I'm still failing to see where the majority are putting Williams on their DO NOT DRAFT list. Even RB48 ranking is a RB4 in a standard 12 teamer. I don't know about other owners, but I know I draft at least 4 RB's every year. And all but 1 fantasy owner in your list in the OP has him ranked above RB48.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Hard to see Williams being super relevant fantasy-wise unless they start using him either in the redzone or in the passing game. Even with a Stewart injury, I'm guessing we'd see Tolbert getting the catches and Cam and Tolbert at the goal-line. Which is a shame, because DeAngelo is still probably the best runner on the Panthers' roster.

 

[cdubz]

If I thought he was automatically worthless, I wouldn't have him 35th.Out of curiosity, where do you feel he deserves to be ranked?

I used to rank players differently than the other FBG staffers, as I ranked players based on how I thought they would wind up based on point totals, not in order of how I would draft them. Joe Flacco would be the perfect example. He would always rank higher at the end of the season then I would ever draft him, but I still ranked him fairly high just based on the fact that his year end rankings indicated he was consistently a Top 15 QB (but I wouldn't draft him in the Top 20 QBs).

I haven't done rankings for this season (and likely won't), but I would guess I would have him in the draft range of RB28-30 range. That's not that far different then where you have him, but half the people I included rankings for had him in the 40-50 range (which IMO is too low). I suspect Williams will end up the year in the Top 20-25 backs when all is said in done, as I suspect he will get the ball a little more than expected and Stewart will have some sort of nagging injury that will get Deangelo a few starts (and a full time workload in those games).

I think it is helpful that the majority are doing rankings based on how they would draft the players. As Adam is so eloquently discussing in the dynasty rankings thread, there is a difference between points and value. I prefer the rankings I consume to be based on expected value rather than expected points.

 

[tdmills]

Considering Mike Shula is the new OC, nobody knows how this backfield will shake out. Dwill didn't look like he lost any skill last season, why assume it will happen this year?

 

[bostonfred]

Chance of starting without an injury: slim

Chance of an injury giving him the starting job: highest in the league

Ff upside if he gets to start: very good

Ff upside iif the starter stays healthy: low but not zero.

Repeat this for each of the players on your list and he compares fairly well with guys like bernard pierce, ben tate, etc. He should be in a bunch with those guys, and clearly ahead of the backup rbs in murkier situations like turnin/christine, mikel/joique, lmj/lattimore/etc

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Chance of starting without an injury: slimChance of an injury giving him the starting job: highest in the leagueFf upside if he gets to start: very goodFf upside iif the starter stays healthy: low but not zero. Repeat this for each of the players on your list and he compares fairly well with guys like bernard pierce, ben tate, etc. He should be in a bunch with those guys, and clearly ahead of the backup rbs in murkier situations like turnin/christine, mikel/joique, lmj/lattimore/etc

Gotta disagree here. The Carolina backfield is the definition of murky. DeAngelo had games with 6, 10, 11, and 12 carries with Stewart out last year in addition to two good games and the monster game week 17. Even if Stewart is hurt they don't consistently hand the keys to Williams. Unless by "injury" you mean Stewart, Tolbert, and Newton all getting hurt...

 

[humpback]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

You're right. You should grab him as your RB2 and not worry what anyone on here says. BTW, any sports open in your league?

Come on down if you're up for it. I only worked here for 10 years, I'm guessing I have an informed opinion.

Every year it seems like there's always a bucket of guys that are too old and will lose their jobs. Bruce, Kennison, Mason, Driver, RWilliams, McGahee, Dunn, Martin, etc. I guess people think that those types of players are always on the DO NOT DRAFT list for some reason.

I don't think anyone is saying he's going to lose his job. What you seem to be forgetting is that his job is the #2 RB (on a team with multiple TD vultures in front of him). He's ranked accordingly.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Once you get out of the weekly startable backs, one of the most important factors is upside. I am willing to take Ben Tate in the top 35 RBs not because I think he is likely to finish in the top 35, but because I know if Foster goes down Tate is a borderline RB1. I think people may have a hard time seeing the upside with Deangelo given the reliance on Cam and Tolbert in short yardage situations. I think around RB 40 is probably about right.

ETA: Also will be about 30.5 when the season rolls around. Very few RBs are able to keep up a high level of play let alone still be in the league after 30.

I would argue that Williams could be a borderline RB1 if Stewart went down, too. He still has gas in the tank. He just needs the opportunity, IMO. That's the biggest thing holding him back.

 

[Leonidas]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

How come every time someone defends a running back they always say did you see what he did against the Saints?

Exactly what I was thinking. This "but he had 200 yards week 17 against the Saints" thing is sounding an awful lot like the YouTube video posted in the Chris Ivory thread where the highlights were basically all returns or against New Orleans. I'm not taking him where he is generally available, I'd rather go for guys that seem to have more upside.

Was it practice footage?

Sorry I had a Freudian slip I had Ivory on the mind talking about NO.

David Wilson highly film that was mostly returns or against NO. Lemme go fix that.

 

[bostonfred]

Chance of starting without an injury: slimChance of an injury giving him the starting job: highest in the leagueFf upside if he gets to start: very goodFf upside iif the starter stays healthy: low but not zero. Repeat this for each of the players on your list and he compares fairly well with guys like bernard pierce, ben tate, etc. He should be in a bunch with those guys, and clearly ahead of the backup rbs in murkier situations like turnin/christine, mikel/joique, lmj/lattimore/etc

Gotta disagree here. The Carolina backfield is the definition of murky. DeAngelo had games with 6, 10, 11, and 12 carries with Stewart out last year in addition to two good games and the monster game week 17. Even if Stewart is hurt they don't consistently hand the keys to Williams. Unless by "injury" you mean Stewart, Tolbert, and Newton all getting hurt...

Good stuff, thanks. I'm more interested in the methodology than the specific player, but its good to look at what deangelo actually did last year, too.

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

You're right. You should grab him as your RB2 and not worry what anyone on here says. BTW, any sports open in your league?

Come on down if you're up for it. I only worked here for 10 years, I'm guessing I have an informed opinion.

Every year it seems like there's always a bucket of guys that are too old and will lose their jobs. Bruce, Kennison, Mason, Driver, RWilliams, McGahee, Dunn, Martin, etc. I guess people think that those types of players are always on the DO NOT DRAFT list for some reason.

Please don't refer to your opinion as informed in the same thread where you are arguing for DAngelo's fantasy relevance.

SHow me where to sign up and we can settle this on the ff field...

 

[Anarchy99]

I don't think anyone is saying he's going to lose his job. What you seem to be forgetting is that his job is the #2 RB (on a team with multiple TD vultures in front of him). He's ranked accordingly.

I don't think it's quite as clear cut as what you are saying.

Williams carries per game the past 5 years starting with 2008: 17.1, 16.6, 14.5, 9.7, 10.8

Stewart carries per game the past 5 years starting with 2008: 11.4, 13.8, 12.7, 8.9, 10.3

I don't view that and automatically conclude that Stewart is a clear cut starter and Williams is no more than a total back up.

I agree that Newton and Tolbert have taken away TD opportunities, but Stewart only has 7 total rushing TD the past 3 seasons (Williams had a total of 13).

I guess maybe the other thing that rubs me the wrong way is that the some of the same experts have Stewart ranked in the 15-25 range when he here to for hasn't exactly been leaps and bounds fantasy wise over Williams.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

As a DWill owner in one league, I can confidently say I have lost more games than I have won over the last 4 years with him in my lineup. I should just cut him and can see no scenario where I would ever draft him again or encourage anyone to take that plunge, ever. He resides on my bench only for emergency plays and wouldn't you know, anytime I need him he puts up a clunker. I had to start him week 5 of last year (PPR) and he offered up a - 1.4 and week 7 where he was gracious enough to stick me with a .4. If anyone has any delusions of winning with the guy, well I would just say go ahead and try but don't say you haven't been warned.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I don't think anyone is saying he's going to lose his job. What you seem to be forgetting is that his job is the #2 RB (on a team with multiple TD vultures in front of him). He's ranked accordingly.

I don't think it's quite as clear cut as what you are saying. Williams carries per game the past 5 years starting with 2008: 17.1, 16.6, 14.5, 9.7, 10.8Stewart carries per game the past 5 years starting with 2008: 11.4, 13.8, 12.7, 8.9, 10.3 I don't view that and automatically conclude that Stewart is a clear cut starter and Williams is no more than a total back up. I agree that Newton and Tolbert have taken away TD opportunities, but Stewart only has 7 total rushing TD the past 3 seasons (Williams had a total of 13). I guess maybe the other thing that rubs me the wrong way is that the some of the same experts have Stewart ranked in the 15-25 range when he here to for hasn't exactly been leaps and bounds fantasy wise over Williams.

Stewart is a dog turd too (FF only, they're both very good NFL backs). People just haven't realized it with him yet.Signed,The guy who has invested waaaay too much in both in a ton of dynasty leagues over the years.

 

[ghostguy123]

He is rated so low cause he has no upside compared to many others.

he may finish 30th, but he should probably be rated 50th, because of that lack of upside I mentioned. His 10 point per week pace is enough to do what for your team exactly?

I would rather get a guy who I know will do nothing for 12 weeks unless he gets a lucky break and the guy ahead of him gets injured, and he can score 15 a game for a month.

 

[Ghost Rider]

As a DWill owner in one league, I can confidently say I have lost more games than I have won over the last 4 years with him in my lineup. I should just cut him and can see no scenario where I would ever draft him again or encourage anyone to take that plunge, ever. He resides on my bench only for emergency plays and wouldn't you know, anytime I need him he puts up a clunker. I had to start him week 5 of last year (PPR) and he offered up a - 1.4 and week 7 where he was gracious enough to stick me with a .4. If anyone has any delusions of winning with the guy, well I would just say go ahead and try but don't say you haven't been warned.

Amen to that. The same applies to Stewart. Any time you need either, they suck, and then they go off when you least expect it (meaning, there was no way you started them). His crappy performance in Week 1 last year single-handedly cost me $200 (had I started another my number 3 RB at the time instead of him, I would have won my game and had enough points to win me $200 at the end of the year in this non-playoffs league).

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As a DWill owner in one league, I can confidently say I have lost more games than I have won over the last 4 years with him in my lineup. I should just cut him and can see no scenario where I would ever draft him again or encourage anyone to take that plunge, ever. He resides on my bench only for emergency plays and wouldn't you know, anytime I need him he puts up a clunker. I had to start him week 5 of last year (PPR) and he offered up a - 1.4 and week 7 where he was gracious enough to stick me with a .4. If anyone has any delusions of winning with the guy, well I would just say go ahead and try but don't say you haven't been warned.

Amen to that. The same applies to Stewart. Any time you need either, they suck, and then they go off when you least expect it (meaning, there was no way you started them). His crappy performance in Week 1 last year single-handedly cost me $200 (had I started another my number 3 RB at the time instead of him, I would have won my game and had enough points to win me $200 at the end of the year in this non-playoffs league).

Stewart out, crappy Bucs' defense, good flex play, right? 7 touches for 4 total YFS and a close loss. Davone Bess was rolling out as my bye week flex guy by mid year over Williams. That ought to tell you something.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

This is an interesting thread and player but not for the reasons many of you are debating. I have owned DeAngelo in many leagues and I always enjoy watching him play. No matter what he ranked last season he was a weekly hole on any roster. And that brings up a very interesting part of FF. Outside of the top 10, and then especially the top 20 you find very few impact makers and very few serviceable games. Look at some of these numbers for DeAngelo last season.

Opening week we got treated to 6/-1 on the ground, if that didn't scare owners off enough then they did get some redemption week 2 with 69 yds and a TD, week 3 lures owners back for 73 total yards? Week 4 49 yds rush and a TD. The 1st 4 weeks he has 2 serviceable(and I am using the term loosely) games.

Week 5 6 carries for 6 yards

so again owners are likely benching him at this point which diminishes anything he does the next week. Week 6 he managed all of 4 yards, then week 7 it's a whopping 33 yards and again any owner is benching him at this point. Week 8 he racks up 37 yds and a TD but again I don't know how any owner would be starting that guy.Week 9 we go back to 6 carries for 6 yards. DeAngelo hit single digits in rushing on 4 occasions, all of them when it mattered during the regular art of these FF seasons. Then it is 7/18, 11/21, 12/67, 17/56

And yet this is a top 25 RB and you might be right there is no reason to think differently this year but yet I feel like I started to see him lose his burst last year. I will be surprised if he has more than 3 decent games during the 1st 8-10 weeks of the season as owners are trying to figure out who to start for the home stretch. Low impact guy at this point in his career and with what he has around him. You put DeAngelo on Miami, NY Jets, St Louis, he probably is a solid RB1, just not gonna happen in Carolina and he is probably playing his last season or close to it, expect less and less of him. What could have been and will always make for good bar talk over a cold beer.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I don't think anyone is saying he's going to lose his job. What you seem to be forgetting is that his job is the #2 RB (on a team with multiple TD vultures in front of him). He's ranked accordingly.

Williams carries per game the past 5 years starting with 2008: 17.1, 16.6, 14.5, 9.7, 10.8Stewart carries per game the past 5 years starting with 2008: 11.4, 13.8, 12.7, 8.9, 10.3

If you wanted to be accurate, you'd adjust these stats for the games in which they played together. Not sure what 2008 and a coaching regime ago really has to do with much

Williams was at 8.2 carries/game in 2012 in games in which both he and Stewart played. Snaps per game (both played): Stewart 34.7 / Williams 19.8.

I own none of the Panther backs and probably won't. Stewart RB3, Williams RB4.

 

[humpback]

I don't think anyone is saying he's going to lose his job. What you seem to be forgetting is that his job is the #2 RB (on a team with multiple TD vultures in front of him). He's ranked accordingly.

I don't think it's quite as clear cut as what you are saying.

Williams carries per game the past 5 years starting with 2008: 17.1, 16.6, 14.5, 9.7, 10.8

Stewart carries per game the past 5 years starting with 2008: 11.4, 13.8, 12.7, 8.9, 10.3

I don't view that and automatically conclude that Stewart is a clear cut starter and Williams is no more than a total back up.

I agree that Newton and Tolbert have taken away TD opportunities, but Stewart only has 7 total rushing TD the past 3 seasons (Williams had a total of 13).

I guess maybe the other thing that rubs me the wrong way is that the some of the same experts have Stewart ranked in the 15-25 range when he here to for hasn't exactly been leaps and bounds fantasy wise over Williams.

Craig beat me to it, but it's pretty clear that Stewart is the main guy and Williams plays second fiddle. Besides having more carries and snaps played in games they were both active, Stewart had 17 receptions to Williams' 2 in those games.

I agree that Stewart has been criminally overrated by many, but that doesn't make Williams any better of a FF player. He'd obviously hold more value if Stewart gets hurt, but even then his upside is going to be limited by Cam and Tolbert.