DeAngelo Williams - What Am I Missing? (1 Viewer)

[Nucker101]

He might outperform his draft position, but that doesn't automatically make him a good pick IMO(as stupid as that sounds). The fact is that his upside is very limited, even when J-Stew gets banged up Tolbert is still there. And then you have Cam Newton the goal line back to steal TD's. Not to mention that Carolina probably won't have the most explosive offense and be running the clock out with big leads this year. He's one of those guys that would be very hard to trust in your starting lineup unless we're talking about very deep leagues.

 

[Anarchy99]

To try to further explain this situation, here are the breakdowns the past few seasons for Williams and Stewart: (0 ppr)

WILLIAMS

2012 With JS 8.4 touches, 4.9 fantasy ppg

2012 W/O JS 15.7 touches, 12.9 fantasy ppg

2011 With JS 10.7 touches, 8.7 fantasy ppg

2011 W/O JS Not applicable

2010 With JS 16.3 touches, 8.0 fantasy ppg

2010 W/O JS Not applicable

2009 With JS 18.8 touches, 13.8 fantasy ppg

2009 W/O JS Not applicable

STEWART

2012 With DW 12.2 touches, 6.8 fantasy ppg

2012 W/O DW Not applicable

2011 With DW 11.8 touches, 9.2 fantasy ppg

2011 W/O DW Not applicable

2010 With DW 9.0 touches, 5.8 fantasy ppg

2010 W/O DW 16.5 touches, 8.9 fantasy ppg

2009 With DW 12.8 touches, 9.8 fantasy ppg

2009 W/O DW 24.3 touches, 21.8 fantasy ppg

It looks on paper that both guys did better when the other one didn't play. It does seem much clearer now that Williams wasn't getting much work in the early going last year. With a new OC, is that expected to continue? It also seems that when BOTH guys are in the lineup that for the most part NEITHER is a great fantasy option.

 

[Hoosier16]

To try to further explain this situation, here are the breakdowns the past few seasons for Williams and Stewart: (0 ppr) WILLIAMS 2012 With JS 8.4 touches, 4.9 fantasy ppg2012 W/O JS 15.7 touches, 12.9 fantasy ppg 2011 With JS 10.7 touches, 8.7 fantasy ppg2011 W/O JS Not applicable 2010 With JS 16.3 touches, 8.0 fantasy ppg2010 W/O JS Not applicable 2009 With JS 18.8 touches, 13.8 fantasy ppg2009 W/O JS Not applicable STEWART 2012 With DW 12.2 touches, 6.8 fantasy ppg2012 W/O DW Not applicable 2011 With DW 11.8 touches, 9.2 fantasy ppg2011 W/O DW Not applicable 2010 With DW 9.0 touches, 5.8 fantasy ppg2010 W/O DW 16.5 touches, 8.9 fantasy ppg 2009 With DW 12.8 touches, 9.8 fantasy ppg2009 W/O DW 24.3 touches, 21.8 fantasy ppg It looks on paper that both guys did better when the other one didn't play. It does seem much clearer now that Williams wasn't getting much work in the early going last year. With a new OC, is that expected to continue? It also seems that when BOTH guys are in the lineup that for the most part NEITHER is a great fantasy option.

It looks like you've shown that when both are in the lineup, the trend is that Stewart is getting more touches and DWill is getting less. It's gone from 60/40 DWill in 2009 to 60/40 Stewart in 2012. Why wouldn't you rank Stewart higher than DWill?

 

[Ariakis]

DWil is what he's been for several years ... a strong lottery ticket that won't cost much. JStew is on my do not draft list. With a new OC we'll see what changes ... will they run a more traditional formation which suits DWill better than what they did last year? Will the strong finish from DWill lead to more usage?

 

[msudaisy26]

To quote Officer Barbrady from South Park " Move along people there is nothing to see here"

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It also seems that when BOTH guys are in the lineup that for the most part NEITHER is a great fantasy option.

I doubt you'd get much argument on that.

 

[DropKick]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

What explains the fantasy community's perception?. The combination of age, the presence of Stewart and the use of Newton (and others) in goal line situations explains the rankings. Also, there are plenty of frustrated Williams/Stewart owners who are just tired of their platoon situation. But, I agree that he is could be more valuable than people think.

More than half of his yardage and TDs last season came in weeks 14-17. Great for play-off teams but he was baggage for the regular season. I think you can legitimately take away that 200 yard, 2 TD game he put up in week 17. People want a guy with a bigger and more consistent role. I'll avoid both Williams and Stewart because you need an injury for them to hit their potential.

 

[Shutout]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

What explains the fantasy community's perception?. The combination of age, the presence of Stewart and the use of Newton (and others) in goal line situations explains the rankings. Also, there are plenty of frustrated Williams/Stewart owners who are just tired of their platoon situation. But, I agree that he is could be more valuable than people think. More than half of his yardage and TDs last season came in weeks 14-17. Great for play-off teams but he was baggage for the regular season. I think you can legitimately take away that 200 yard, 2 TD game he put up in week 17. People want a guy with a bigger and more consistent role. I'll avoid both Williams and Stewart because you need an injury for them to hit their potential.

I wouldn't bother with DWIL at all at this point but your last sentence makes me comment...to me, it seems like, in general, those guys you pick up because you are waiting for an injury is exactly the type of players you should invest into eating roster space. Guys like Bryce brown and knowshon Moreno last year were excellent late season playoffs. Guys like Tate garner their draft value largely based on "what if foster gets hurt". Guess I'm just saying although I don't think much of the player in this particular example, I wouldn't dismiss it across the board.

 

[Anarchy99]

I wouldn't bother with DWIL at all at this point but your last sentence makes me comment...to me, it seems like, in general, those guys you pick up because you are waiting for an injury is exactly the type of players you should invest into eating roster space. Guys like Bryce brown and knowshon Moreno last year were excellent late season playoffs. Guys like Tate garner their draft value largely based on "what if foster gets hurt". Guess I'm just saying although I don't think much of the player in this particular example, I wouldn't dismiss it across the board.

How would the same not apply to Williams? He did exactly what you said you look for in rostering a back. Stewart got hurt and Williams stepped in and played well in the fantasy playoffs. He got hot and had another fantasy playoff stretch run the year before.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

This is an interesting thread and player but not for the reasons many of you are debating. I have owned DeAngelo in many leagues and I always enjoy watching him play. No matter what he ranked last season he was a weekly hole on any roster. And that brings up a very interesting part of FF. Outside of the top 10, and then especially the top 20 you find very few impact makers and very few serviceable games. Look at some of these numbers for DeAngelo last season.

Opening week we got treated to 6/-1 on the ground, if that didn't scare owners off enough then they did get some redemption week 2 with 69 yds and a TD, week 3 lures owners back for 73 total yards? Week 4 49 yds rush and a TD. The 1st 4 weeks he has 2 serviceable(and I am using the term loosely) games.

Week 5 6 carries for 6 yards

Nothing?

 

[Anarchy99]

This is an interesting thread and player but not for the reasons many of you are debating. I have owned DeAngelo in many leagues and I always enjoy watching him play. No matter what he ranked last season he was a weekly hole on any roster. And that brings up a very interesting part of FF. Outside of the top 10, and then especially the top 20 you find very few impact makers and very few serviceable games. Look at some of these numbers for DeAngelo last season.

Opening week we got treated to 6/-1 on the ground, if that didn't scare owners off enough then they did get some redemption week 2 with 69 yds and a TD, week 3 lures owners back for 73 total yards? Week 4 49 yds rush and a TD. The 1st 4 weeks he has 2 serviceable(and I am using the term loosely) games.

Week 5 6 carries for 6 yards

I don't get the opportunity to see the Panthers much, so I can't comment on how he looked or didn't look from one week to another. I agree that his usage varied and that he usually did not see much work. All I can see from looking at just the numbers is that he still seems like he can put up decent totals when he gets the ball, burst or no burst and even losing a step.

I hate to hang my hat on the same game, but WIlliams averaged 10 ypc the last week against the Saints. Sure, people can say "but it's just the Saints" all they want, but the only other RB to put up insane numbers last year against NO was Jamaal Charles (who also had 200+ rushing yards).

Maybe there are just so few backs that actually put up big fantasy numbers that Williams is a mirage. Someone that gets the requisite number of points at the end of the year but mostly not really all that useful.

Danny Woodhead in NE struck me that way, as he ended up as the #25 RB last year (and 28th a couple years earlier), but overall I would never really want to have to play him. Last year, he only had 10 or more fantasy points 4 times, and there was no rhyme or reason why he did those weeks other than he found the end zone.

Some of this is explained by the total RB fantasy numbers. The #25 RB last year scored 30 fewer points than the year before and 40 less than in 2006. It looks like fewer backs are scoing as many points and/or more guys are getting hurt and are not getting the workload over a full season to score as high as they used to.

 

[DropKick]

Cam Newton and the fact that they are trying to faze Williams out.

Based on what, exactly? The 200+ yard beat down he put on the Saints in the last game last year? Newton was there the past two years and Williams put up the numbers he put up. If they were "phasing him out," they could have cut him. He still is getting a decent amount of money (getting $5 million total this year). He ended up getting the ball plenty at the end of the season last year.

What explains the fantasy community's perception?. The combination of age, the presence of Stewart and the use of Newton (and others) in goal line situations explains the rankings. Also, there are plenty of frustrated Williams/Stewart owners who are just tired of their platoon situation. But, I agree that he is could be more valuable than people think. More than half of his yardage and TDs last season came in weeks 14-17. Great for play-off teams but he was baggage for the regular season. I think you can legitimately take away that 200 yard, 2 TD game he put up in week 17. People want a guy with a bigger and more consistent role. I'll avoid both Williams and Stewart because you need an injury for them to hit their potential.

I wouldn't bother with DWIL at all at this point but your last sentence makes me comment...to me, it seems like, in general, those guys you pick up because you are waiting for an injury is exactly the type of players you should invest into eating roster space. Guys like Bryce brown and knowshon Moreno last year were excellent late season playoffs. Guys like Tate garner their draft value largely based on "what if foster gets hurt". Guess I'm just saying although I don't think much of the player in this particular example, I wouldn't dismiss it across the board.

I didn't mean to suggest that i would dismiss them entirely, but I probably wouldn't take either earlier than my RB4.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

In leagues with heavy RB weighted scoring, and 12 team start 3 or 16 team start 2; the cutoff between RB 30-35 could win your week, and in that situation D Will can offer nice value IMO late in drafts or cheap at auctions. But that's if you're looking back at history, and 2013 offers a couple of new variables (coaches and players) to factor into the equation. Given that, I like him in the RB 35-40 range, with no upside and the floor of a 30 year old that may lose carries. Which is to say, meh. And that's just re-draft, in dynasty pencil in CAR's 2014 2nd round draft pick as a top 5 player in 2014 rookie drafts (and get a bag of chips for D Will if that's even available).

He's appealing in certain fantasy scenarios (I enjoy his play as a real life NFL player) depending on the scoring system and roster requirement. But in a short bench league, there's a chance he may be on the WW if he's a dud early in 2013.

 

[purestrength]

I'm curious about the philosophies of new OC Mike Shula. The old OC didn't have a clue how to use his RBs last season until it was too late fantasy-wise. If Shula favors a more traditional run-based offense, there might be a smidgen of hope left for DWill and/or Stewart.

 

[ty247]

Carolina has had running backs that have been phenomenally talented in Williams and Stewart.. Everyone see's it.. Everyone gets excited by the prospects of what these guys could do...

And then Carolina goes and doesn't run the ball enough, they misuse their players, their defense sucks, they sink 80 million dollars into bad contracts to wrap up Williams and Stewart instead of fixing other holes on the team, and it all accumulates into one garbage pile of a mess.

The Carolina franchise has really wasted the careers of two immensely talented running backs and it's unforunate for the fans that missed out on seeing these guys play to their full potential.

 

[lod01]

Carolina has had running backs that have been phenomenally talented in Williams and Stewart.. Everyone see's it.. Everyone gets excited by the prospects of what these guys could do... And then Carolina goes and doesn't run the ball enough, they misuse their players, their defense sucks, they sink 80 million dollars into bad contracts to wrap up Williams and Stewart instead of fixing other holes on the team, and it all accumulates into one garbage pile of a mess. The Carolina franchise has really wasted the careers of two immensely talented running backs and it's unforunate for the fans that missed out on seeing these guys play to their full potential.

Yep. Spot on. Only thing I could add is that the staff is so awful that they got drunk on Cam koolaid and forgot that running the ball got them wins previously.Who wastes away the career of a 5+ ypc career RB? These guys do.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Now it's probably a good question on who was the bigger waste of money (and return)....

Granted, Deangelo restructured, but...

July 2011: Deangelo signs five-year, $43 million deal with $21 mil guaranteed.

August 2012: Stewart signs $36.5 million with $22.5 million guaranteed,

They've gotten a combined 1909 total rushing yards across 3 seasons since signing their contracts(2 for Williams, 1 for Williams). Williams 836 rushing yards in 2011 being the high point.

They'll have paid DeAngelo $30 mil through this year. Stewart's guaranteed $23 mil through 2014 season.

Jonathan Stewart - RB - Panthers
Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart will remained sidelined until training camp, and possibly beyond.
Stewart, who has battled nagging injuries habitually since entering the league, is still rehabbing from offseason surgery on both ankles. Coach Ron Rivera said he's on track to be back for the start of camp, but we wouldn't be surprised if Stewart is eased back slowly as a precautionary measure. He'll once again enter the season with high expectations to be the feature back in Carolina.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I get the Williams is never going to get the touches and fantasy production he did 5 years ago, but even splitting the workload with Stewart he's been a decent fantasy back. Working with limited touches, he still ranked as the #26 and #23 fantasy RB the past two season. Stewart hasn't exactly been a beacon of heath and is already banged up and we are not even up to training camp yet.

As far as I can tell, Williams is not nursing some long term injury, didn't have off-season surgery, is not looking at some off-field or PED related suspension, and just redid his contract to ensure he stayed with the team. And as I already mentioned, he ranked 26th and 23rd the past two seasons.

Given all that, here are the current fantasy rankings from various and sundry sources:

NFL.com - Smith 28

FBG - Waldman 30

NFL.com - Rank 31

FBG - Wimer 32

FBG - Holloway 32

FBG - Hicks 33

FBG - Pasquino 33

FBG - Cummings 35

FBG - Garcia 35

FBG - Harstad 35

NFL.com - Dameshek 35

MFL 36

FBG - Baker 37

Fantasy Sharks 38

FBG - Haseley 38

FBG - Henry 38

FBG - Brimacombe 38

FantasyPros 38

NFL.com - Grant 38

FBG - Grant 39

Eisenberg - CBS 40

FBG - Bryant & Dodds 40

FBG - Hester 40

FBG - Trembley 40

KFFL 41

NFL.com - Fabiano 42

ESPN 43

Ricahrd - CBS 44

Zegura - CBS 44

FBG - Wood 44

NY Times 45

FBG - Borbeley 45

FBG - Parsons 47

FBG - Tefertiller 50+

Average Ranking 38

So what am I missing that Williams has fallen off the map and is so out of favor these days?

So, this is from 8/20:

J

Jonathan Stewart will miss his third straight preseason game Thursday night at Baltimore and Panthers coach Ron Rivera isn't ruling out the possibility of putting the running back on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list.

If that happens, Stewart would miss at least the first six weeks of the season.

"At this point anything is an option," Rivera said following Tuesday's practice. "What you're hoping is you can get him on the football field and we'll see once the doctor gets a chance to look at him."

Stewart, who's battling back from surgery on both ankles, is continuing to work with trainers on the side but is keeping a close eye on the plays being run during practice.

He has yet to practice with the team.

Rivera said the sixth-year NFL running back will meet with team physicians soon — though he isn't sure exactly when — to determine if he's close to being ready to return to the practice field.

http://pro32.ap.org/abqjournal/article/rivera-panthers-not-sure-when-stewart-will-return

I have been low on the Panthers this offseason, despite their finish last year, losing Chud, bringing in Shula as OC, my general tendency to pull against the Panthers, all had me steering clear, but then Williams was available for cheap in my draft and I got him, mainly on the note that Stewart might maybe could be out for the first 6 weeks (or not).

I've always liked him as a runner but I've been generally aggravated since I took DW as that caused me to miss a couple other guys I was targeting, but maybe I need to be more objective. So I have been trying to trade him since, very little no interest, but I don't think many are aware of this situation. Once upon a time either Stewart or Williams getting all of the work in the Panthers backfield would have been something.

There is also Tolbert to consider. They also open vs Sea, not a promising first matchup.

Anyone see any early sleeper potential here?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

DeAngelo is a great value. Seems to have the inside track to RB carries and if he dont work out his price was so cheap it dont hurt you

 

[Long Ball Larry]

what about Williams now?

 

[BassNBrew]

Nothing to see here Larry. Same as it was before.

Williams was a top 3 NFL RB talent. Put him in Houston and he would be thinking about his Canton speech.

In 12 teamers or less, he's undraftable unless it's best ball. Becomes a nice value in 16 team leagues. The o-line in Carolina is in shambles. They just signed a guy off the street to start. There will be too many horrible days to stomach. He does have the talent to capitalize when the D screws up and take it the distance. If you look up the term "huge standard deviation" in the dictionary, you'll see a pictue of 2013 DWill.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Nothing to see here Larry. Same as it was before.

Williams was a top 3 NFL RB talent. Put him in Houston and he would be thinking about his Canton speech.

In 12 teamers or less, he's undraftable unless it's best ball. Becomes a nice value in 16 team leagues. The o-line in Carolina is in shambles. They just signed a guy off the street to start. There will be too many horrible days to stomach. He does have the talent to capitalize when the D screws up and take it the distance. If you look up the term "huge standard deviation" in the dictionary, you'll see a pictue of 2013 DWill.

This is really something. Appreciate the hometown view, but Deangelo Williams with no Stewart and a dinged Tolbert is this bad? "Undraftable"?

ETA post: Just a reminder, long time ago but when Shula was OC with the Bucs they were top-10 in rush attempts four years in a row and as high as 3rd and 4th in that category.

2012 Stew & DW combined for over 1400 total yards, 30 receptions. This time should have more rush attempts.

 

[Abraham]

Nothing to see here Larry. Same as it was before.

Williams was a top 3 NFL RB talent. Put him in Houston and he would be thinking about his Canton speech.

In 12 teamers or less, he's undraftable unless it's best ball. Becomes a nice value in 16 team leagues. The o-line in Carolina is in shambles. They just signed a guy off the street to start. There will be too many horrible days to stomach. He does have the talent to capitalize when the D screws up and take it the distance. If you look up the term "huge standard deviation" in the dictionary, you'll see a pictue of 2013 DWill.

This is a good posting.

 

[Koya]

Nothing to see here Larry. Same as it was before.

Williams was a top 3 NFL RB talent. Put him in Houston and he would be thinking about his Canton speech.

In 12 teamers or less, he's undraftable unless it's best ball. Becomes a nice value in 16 team leagues. The o-line in Carolina is in shambles. They just signed a guy off the street to start. There will be too many horrible days to stomach. He does have the talent to capitalize when the D screws up and take it the distance. If you look up the term "huge standard deviation" in the dictionary, you'll see a pictue of 2013 DWill.

This is a good posting.

He is undraftable? 6 person leagues here Abe? You have a clear starter on a team that appears to be willing to run a "little" bit more at least (less shotgun) and he is the only guy. Won't get that many goal line carries, but he's going with RBs who are third RBs, bench players etc and a starter, at least for 6-8 games if not more, has a lot of value in most league.

As noted, given enough carries, he can break off some nice runs. Yes, he will have some bad games - just about all players due. Not sure that many have the chance for the good games he could sprinkle in, at his ADP.

For example, guys are jumping on Shane Vereen or Richardson - the former is not the starter and while he could have a nice role, we need to see if that's a lot of 3-8 point games without much more. The latter could be really good, but he is under 200lbs and has to prove a lot regarding ability for the full year. In that mix, and considering the guys after those RB tiers are gone, don't see how there isn't some value here with DW.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Nothing to see here Larry. Same as it was before.

Williams was a top 3 NFL RB talent. Put him in Houston and he would be thinking about his Canton speech.

In 12 teamers or less, he's undraftable unless it's best ball. Becomes a nice value in 16 team leagues. The o-line in Carolina is in shambles. They just signed a guy off the street to start. There will be too many horrible days to stomach. He does have the talent to capitalize when the D screws up and take it the distance. If you look up the term "huge standard deviation" in the dictionary, you'll see a pictue of 2013 DWill.

This is a good posting.

That was actually an awful posting and I hope no one seriously follows that advice. Fact is, JStew may not even play all year.

Jonathan Stewart (ankles) may not be ready when he's eligible to come off the PUP list in Week 7.
Reporters have noticed Stewart "grimacing in pain even after a slight exertion." Writes columnist Scott Fowler, "Stewart may not play the whole year, either." It's clear Stewart isn't close to playing in a game, and there's no guarantee he'll be healed up in two months. Ex-GM Marty Hurney gave Stewart a six-year, $37.8 million contract with $22.5 million guaranteed one year ago.

Obviously, DWills has been criminally underutilized over the past several years. When has hasn't, i.e, gotten 13+ carries, he's averaged 16.9 fantasy points as opposed to 6.1 on sub 13 carries. I think he's going to be touching the ball a bit more this year and since you can get him for cheap (RB4/5), I believe it's worth the risk.

 

[Koya]

Appreciate the factoid - it appears telling, but how far back does "past several years" take us? Want to make sure we aren't talking about the great year / Pre Cam years to be fair.

You'd think that the Panthers will still need to rush (RB rush, not Cam) 15-20 times a game, which still seems on the pretty low side. Tolbert has value, but it's very situational, and I can't see him getting more than 5 carries and maybe a couple catches. That leaves DWill at 15 on the conservative side plus a couple catches as well.

Again, we aren't holding him to the top 5 draft pick expectations of a few years back. He's a #3RB, and for some of us in certain drafts, a reluctant #2 (where hopefully the rest of your team is looking pretty solid and it's not a RB dependent league).

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Nothing to see here Larry. Same as it was before.

Williams was a top 3 NFL RB talent. Put him in Houston and he would be thinking about his Canton speech.

In 12 teamers or less, he's undraftable unless it's best ball. Becomes a nice value in 16 team leagues. The o-line in Carolina is in shambles. They just signed a guy off the street to start. There will be too many horrible days to stomach. He does have the talent to capitalize when the D screws up and take it the distance. If you look up the term "huge

standard deviation" in the dictionary, you'll see a pictue of 2013 DWill.

This is a good posting.

That was actually an awful posting and I hope no one seriously follows that advice. Fact is, JStew may not even play all year.

It's not an awful posting. Stewart might or might not play this year, we have no idea, but as of now he hasn't been IRed. If Stewart does come back, DeAngelo is certainly garbage. Even if Stewart is out all year, DeAngelo isn't going to get consistent carries -- he had games with 6, 10, 11, and 12 carries with Stewart out last year. He hasn't been used significantly as a receiver or at the goal line in years, no matter who has or hasn't been there or hurt. Carolina's offensive line is terrible and the team is built around their franchise QB -- I don't care who the OC is they're not going back to the John Fox power ground game that Williams was so great in. Finally, Williams is 30, and several Carolina homers have talked about him possibly losing a step.

"Undraftable" is probably a touch strong, but when the guy's upside (as in if Stewart is out all year) is to be a crappy / inconsistent RB2 (unless you're in a 16 team non-PPR or something) I'm not getting excited about him.

 

[JustinHawkins]

Last year does not equal this year. There has been coaching changes and both RBs a few months ago talked about how much more involved they were going to be utilized this year. d-Will could end up a top 5-10 back if Stewart misses the season and they truly hand over the keys to him.

 

[ex-ghost]

Does Barner have any value this year?

 

[SameSongNDance]

Appreciate the factoid - it appears telling, but how far back does "past several years" take us? Want to make sure we aren't talking about the great year / Pre Cam years to be fair.

You'd think that the Panthers will still need to rush (RB rush, not Cam) 15-20 times a game, which still seems on the pretty low side. Tolbert has value, but it's very situational, and I can't see him getting more than 5 carries and maybe a couple catches. That leaves DWill at 15 on the conservative side plus a couple catches as well.

Again, we aren't holding him to the top 5 draft pick expectations of a few years back. He's a #3RB, and for some of us in certain drafts, a reluctant #2 (where hopefully the rest of your team is looking pretty solid and it's not a RB dependent league).

The stat are drawn from the 2010, 11, 12 seasons, so over past three years. Admittedly, it's a small sample size (he's only received 13+ carries 10 times over the past three years) but that's also a testament to how little they've utilized him and how much tread he may have left on the tires, even at the age of 30.

Nothing to see here Larry. Same as it was before.

Williams was a top 3 NFL RB talent. Put him in Houston and he would be thinking about his Canton speech.

In 12 teamers or less, he's undraftable unless it's best ball. Becomes a nice value in 16 team leagues. The o-line in Carolina is in shambles. They just signed a guy off the street to start. There will be too many horrible days to stomach. He does have the talent to capitalize when the D screws up and take it the distance. If you look up the term "huge

standard deviation" in the dictionary, you'll see a pictue of 2013 DWill.

This is a good posting.

That was actually an awful posting and I hope no one seriously follows that advice. Fact is, JStew may not even play all year.

It's not an awful posting. Stewart might or might not play this year, we have no idea, but as of now he hasn't been IRed. If Stewart does come back, DeAngelo is certainly garbage. Even if Stewart is out all year, DeAngelo isn't going to get consistent carries -- he had games with 6, 10, 11, and 12 carries with Stewart out last year. He hasn't been used significantly as a receiver or at the goal line in years, no matter who has or hasn't been there or hurt. Carolina's offensive line is terrible and the team is built around their franchise QB -- I don't care who the OC is they're not going back to the John Fox power ground game that Williams was so great in. Finally, Williams is 30, and several Carolina homers have talked about him possibly losing a step.

"Undraftable" is probably a touch strong, but when the guy's upside (as in if Stewart is out all year) is to be a crappy / inconsistent RB2 (unless you're in a 16 team non-PPR or something) I'm not getting excited about him.

I'm not crazy about him either due to many of the negatives you laid out. This year however, relative to his ADP, you'd very much like to be grabbing a crappy/inconsistent RB2 as he well dries up rather quickly. There's no one being drafted around him that is guaranteed the same type of work load, at least in the first half of the season. Advising someone to lean on him is IMO equally as dumb as to say he should go undrafted.

Does Barner have any value this year?

From everything I've seen and read he looks to be a COP/3rd down back.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

"Undraftable" is probably a touch strong, but when the guy's upside (as in if Stewart is out all year) is to be a crappy / inconsistent RB2 (unless you're in a 16 team non-PPR or something) I'm not getting excited about him.

The flip side of the true stud RBs putting more distance between themselves and the field is that it doesn't take a whole lot to crack top-30 territory these days as a runner. Per PFR standard scoring, D-Will finished RB26 in 2011 - pretty much the definition of "crappy RB2". And that was with Stewart getting more touches and yards than D-Will did! (He finished RB25.)

At least for the first 6-7 weeks, it's crazy to think D-Will's best case is doing with the majority of the carries what he's previously done with the minority of them - IMO that's more of a worst case. If Stewart comes back at full strength, and if Carolina reverts to a time-sharing RB graveyard, you can always trade the guy afterwards, or just drop him. But 7 games is half the fantasy season! For an RB5-level investment, that sure seems like a lot of potential value to me.

 

[JustinHawkins]

Does Barner have any value this year?

No clue but I wouldn't bet on it. Tolbert will get carries before he will IMO.

 

[FDC]

"Undraftable" is probably a touch strong, but when the guy's upside (as in if Stewart is out all year) is to be a crappy / inconsistent RB2 (unless you're in a 16 team non-PPR or something) I'm not getting excited about him.

The flip side of the true stud RBs putting more distance between themselves and the field is that it doesn't take a whole lot to crack top-30 territory these days as a runner. Per PFR standard scoring, D-Will finished RB26 in 2011 - pretty much the definition of "crappy RB2". And that was with Stewart getting more touches and yards than D-Will did! (He finished RB25.)

At least for the first 6-7 weeks, it's crazy to think D-Will's best case is doing with the majority of the carries what he's previously done with the minority of them - IMO that's more of a worst case. If Stewart comes back at full strength, and if Carolina reverts to a time-sharing RB graveyard, you can always trade the guy afterwards, or just drop him. But 7 games is half the fantasy season! For an RB5-level investment, that sure seems like a lot of potential value to me.

part of it also is when a player hits

If Dwill had 200/2 week 10 instead of week 17 people would of taken a lot more notice

 

[HPD]

Undraftable is more than a "touch" strong for a team's RB1, it's a poor assessment of value based on past season bias.

In fact I think that DeAngelo Williams ADP at 7/8 turn is excellent for a RB needy team. In 2011 he averaged 5.4 YPC. In 2012 he averaged 4.3 YPC. He is a candidate for 250 carries with 300+ touch upside.

Stewart has seriously bad ankles and may not even play a snap this season. Even if Stewart does return, you're getting RB2 production for at least half the season.

Yeah, sure - he's "undraftable"

 

[socrates]

Does Barner have any value this year?

I have to think Barner's value increases, although due to his lack of size, I just cannot imagine Barner being more than a situational back . . . but with his electrifying speed, Barner may only need "situations" to be relevant.

 

[Ilov80s]

I believe John Paulsen said that over the last 2 years only 1 RB has a higher fantasy points per touch than Williams (I forget what the minimum number of touches was). So as much as many here like to say he is no good and has no value, he is actually one of the most explosive fantasy RBs.

 

[Koya]

I believe John Paulsen said that over the last 2 years only 1 RB has a higher fantasy points per touch than Williams (I forget what the minimum number of touches was). So as much as many here like to say he is no good and has no value, he is actually one of the most explosive fantasy RBs.

The issue for anyone who has watched the team play the last couple of years has simply been opportunity, or lack thereof. DWill has always had talent, but getting 6, 8, 10 touches a game not only doesnt allow you to accumulate many stats, it also prevents a Rb from getting any type of rythmn and flow, which is important for a lot of the workhorse type backs.

Now, I don't expect to see 20+ carry games, but with the new system and no J Stew for at least half the season, you'd have to expect a lot more than what we saw the past two years.

 

[FDC]

I believe John Paulsen said that over the last 2 years only 1 RB has a higher fantasy points per touch than Williams (I forget what the minimum number of touches was). So as much as many here like to say he is no good and has no value, he is actually one of the most explosive fantasy RBs.

The issue for anyone who has watched the team play the last couple of years has simply been opportunity, or lack thereof. DWill has always had talent, but getting 6, 8, 10 touches a game not only doesnt allow you to accumulate many stats, it also prevents a Rb from getting any type of rythmn and flow, which is important for a lot of the workhorse type backs.

Now, I don't expect to see 20+ carry games, but with the new system and no J Stew for at least half the season, you'd have to expect a lot more than what we saw the past two years.

true

then again J Stew stopped playing after PHI last year

From there they went 4-1 with D Will getting +19 touches a game in wins vs ATL NO and SD

 

[Ray_T]

I get the Williams is never going to get the touches and fantasy production he did 5 years ago, but even splitting the workload with Stewart he's been a decent fantasy back. Working with limited touches, he still ranked as the #26 and #23 fantasy RB the past two season. Stewart hasn't exactly been a beacon of heath and is already banged up and we are not even up to training camp yet.

As far as I can tell, Williams is not nursing some long term injury, didn't have off-season surgery, is not looking at some off-field or PED related suspension, and just redid his contract to ensure he stayed with the team. And as I already mentioned, he ranked 26th and 23rd the past two seasons.

Given all that, here are the current fantasy rankings from various and sundry sources:

NFL.com - Smith 28

FBG - Waldman 30

NFL.com - Rank 31

FBG - Wimer 32

FBG - Holloway 32

FBG - Hicks 33

FBG - Pasquino 33

FBG - Cummings 35

FBG - Garcia 35

FBG - Harstad 35

NFL.com - Dameshek 35

MFL 36

FBG - Baker 37

Fantasy Sharks 38

FBG - Haseley 38

FBG - Henry 38

FBG - Brimacombe 38

FantasyPros 38

NFL.com - Grant 38

FBG - Grant 39

Eisenberg - CBS 40

FBG - Bryant & Dodds 40

FBG - Hester 40

FBG - Trembley 40

KFFL 41

NFL.com - Fabiano 42

ESPN 43

Ricahrd - CBS 44

Zegura - CBS 44

FBG - Wood 44

NY Times 45

FBG - Borbeley 45

FBG - Parsons 47

FBG - Tefertiller 50+

Average Ranking 38

So what am I missing that Williams has fallen off the map and is so out of favor these days?

I think that a number of things have happened to make him fall off the map.

when him and Stewart were putting up big numbers, they were a run based offense with a mediocre QB and a superb run blocking O-line.

they have since acquired Newton, converted the line to a pass blocking O-Line and converted to a pass happy offense.

In the meantime, father time has caught up with Williams who is now 30 years old (the typical age when RB's fall off the map) and Stewart has been injury prone.

it all adds up.

The end result is they dont run much anymore, when they do run, they are not as productive, and Williams is 30 and not the player he used to be.

As such, I would not draft him as anything other than a RB3 or RB4. I may be even generous to say hes worth a spot as a RB3.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Undraftable is more than a "touch" strong for a team's RB1, it's a poor assessment of value based on past season bias.

In fact I think that DeAngelo Williams ADP at 7/8 turn is excellent for a RB needy team. In 2011 he averaged 5.4 YPC. In 2012 he averaged 4.3 YPC. He is a candidate for 250 carries with 300+ touch upside.

Stewart has seriously bad ankles and may not even play a snap this season. Even if Stewart does return, you're getting RB2 production for at least half the season.

Yeah, sure - he's "undraftable"

250 carries and 300 touches? LOL. Maybe if Stewart misses the year, along with Tolbert and Cam, and they bring in Chuck Knox as the OC.

DeAngelo hasn't ever had 300 touches. He's had 250 carries exactly once, as a 25 year old in a John Fox power run scheme.

Good luck getting RB20 - 25 for the 1st 6 weeks at the 7/8 turn -- I'll gladly take guys who might be relevant at the end of the year for the FF playoffs. Or guys that might actually be difference makers, even if it takes an injury to get them there (Pierce, Tate, Brown, etc).

 

[Koya]

Undraftable is more than a "touch" strong for a team's RB1, it's a poor assessment of value based on past season bias.

In fact I think that DeAngelo Williams ADP at 7/8 turn is excellent for a RB needy team. In 2011 he averaged 5.4 YPC. In 2012 he averaged 4.3 YPC. He is a candidate for 250 carries with 300+ touch upside.

Stewart has seriously bad ankles and may not even play a snap this season. Even if Stewart does return, you're getting RB2 production for at least half the season.

Yeah, sure - he's "undraftable"

250 carries and 300 touches? LOL. Maybe if Stewart misses the year, along with Tolbert and Cam, and they bring in Chuck Knox as the OC.

DeAngelo hasn't ever had 300 touches. He's had 250 carries exactly once, as a 25 year old in a John Fox power run scheme.

Good luck getting RB20 - 25 for the 1st 6 weeks at the 7/8 turn -- I'll gladly take guys who might be relevant at the end of the year for the FF playoffs. Or guys that might actually be difference makers, even if it takes an injury to get them there (Pierce, Tate, Brown, etc).

This is simply where personal taste and strategy comes in.

For one, there is a decent shot that he will be the guy all year. J Stew's already rumored to miss more than the minimum 6 weeks as it is. So, if you are looking for a guy that might need an injury, DWill's competition already has that injury with a good chance of him missing a long time, if not the season.

Second, I am in a number of competitive leagues where having an advantage out of the gate could mean the difference between making the playoffs or not. 6 weeks is nothing to sneeze at, it's nearly half the season. And if J Stew comes back say 1/2 through the regular NFL season, we are now into week 8 or 9 and 2/3's done with the fantasy regular season. In addition, you can now take a guy like D Will if you went heavy at other positions and even if J Stew is back, you buy yourself not only some potential wins, but also the chance to cultivate one of those other players you mention and allow them to get a shot, or maybe you can pull off a trade.

So, while D Will isnt expected to carry teams, he has a decent chance to be a serviceable low end #2/#3, with some upside from there. In a league where one game might mean make the playoffs and have a chance to win it all or sit out and watch, I'd say that's value.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

100% agree that it's personal taste and choice -- I'm mainly arguing with the few that are calling for 300 touches / top 5-10 RB finish / etc. It's reasonable to like him at his ADP; it's equally reasonable to want nothing to do with him in the first 100 picks. DeAngelo has (had?) that type of talent -- but it ain't happening in 2013 on the Carolina Panthers.

 

[HPD]

100% agree that it's personal taste and choice -- I'm mainly arguing with the few that are calling for 300 touches / top 5-10 RB finish / etc. It's reasonable to like him at his ADP; it's equally reasonable to want nothing to do with him in the first 100 picks. DeAngelo has (had?) that type of talent -- but it ain't happening in 2013 on the Carolina Panthers.

I was talking about his upside in response to the undraftable comment. I agree its reasonable to like him at his ADP.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Between Tolbert and Newton, I don't see the pie being big enough to make D. Williams a quality starter outside of large leagues.

 

[az_prof]

Between Tolbert and Newton, I don't see the pie being big enough to make D. Williams a quality starter outside of large leagues.

If Tolbert continues as the goal line back, then I wouldn't want Williams in a TD heavy/standard league, but in PPR, with Stewart out, he will be very valuable.

 

[Ilov80s]

I believe John Paulsen said that over the last 2 years only 1 RB has a higher fantasy points per touch than Williams (I forget what the minimum number of touches was). So as much as many here like to say he is no good and has no value, he is actually one of the most explosive fantasy RBs.

The issue for anyone who has watched the team play the last couple of years has simply been opportunity, or lack thereof. DWill has always had talent, but getting 6, 8, 10 touches a game not only doesnt allow you to accumulate many stats, it also prevents a Rb from getting any type of rythmn and flow, which is important for a lot of the workhorse type backs.

Now, I don't expect to see 20+ carry games, but with the new system and no J Stew for at least half the season, you'd have to expect a lot more than what we saw the past two years.

truethen again J Stew stopped playing after PHI last year

From there they went 4-1 with D Will getting +19 touches a game in wins vs ATL NO and SD

Yep and over the last 5 weeks of the year, he was the 4th RB in standard scoring. He had favorable matchups and 1 huge game, but he definitely showed that when given the touches, he can be a really good fantasy option.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I think it's about time we bump this thread with CAR heading into their bye.

So DWills is on pace for career high 352 touches (which is actually pretty nuts) and 1641 total yards from scrimmage. Now, it's obviously not all good. As was predicted, he's a non-factor at the GL and isn't very involved in the passing game. Still, he looks to be a pretty decent (consistent) flex and should score some number of TDs due to the sheer volume of touches he's receiving.

Assuming this situation remains (definitely not a given), it looks like he did represent value relative to his ADP.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

I think it's about time we bump this thread with CAR heading into their bye.

So DWills is on pace for career high 352 touches (which is actually pretty nuts) and 1641 total yards from scrimmage. Now, it's obviously not all good. As was predicted, he's a non-factor at the GL and isn't very involved in the passing game. Still, he looks to be a pretty decent (consistent) flex and should score some number of TDs due to the sheer volume of touches he's receiving.

Assuming this situation remains (definitely not a given), it looks like he did represent value relative to his ADP.

As things stand now, sure.

My main concern is that some of reports suggest that Stewart will be able to return as soon as he comes off the PUP. I drafted Deangelo in a couple of my leagues this year and I'm trying to sell within the next 2 weeks.

 

[cstu]

Sell high, folks.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Sell high, folks.

His sched is somewhat soft, I'm wondering who you could target anyway. I guess a WR as RB's are busting left, right and centre.