I guess i was kind of wondering the same thing,, the first 4 weeks last year he did nothing then week 5 he went off against KC.. only to be shut out again in week 6 against tampa.. & Last year NOBODY really thought much of him until the 2nd half of the year then he was on fire.. In fact i don't think he was listed in the top 20 RB's to be drafted last yearbshell27 said:
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Deangelo Williams (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bshell27
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My thought about the Foster situation is fairly simple...Williams just didn't get it at that time. Having watched him last year, he ran like a man possessed after a few weeks of adjusting to the split with Stewart. He is clearly the best back on that team, and a top 5 RB in the league.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Forgive me as I read it as top 10 RBs. Yes, other players definitely can be worthy of those high picks as you pointed out.As to your RB's, your list is very similar to most others (with the exception of Barber, which I'm shocked you have that high, but you must have good reason). I'm actually glad to see you have Jacobs that high as I happen to agree with you about him. The ones that keep going ahead of him that I have the most problem with are: Forte, Johnson, and Slaton. Not because I don't like those guys, not because I don't think they are talented, and not because I don't think they are capable of repeating. But, these guys were all rookies and personally I prefer more track record from my top RB's. Yes, I know DeAngelo also only has 1 year of full-time starter stats, but his stats heading onto 2008 were comparable to what he did in certain respects. Even if you don't believe in that, why do you feel that DeAngelo is going to regress so much and those other 3 won't? More importantly, why is DeAngelo going to regress MORE than those 3 when he outscored all of them (and everyone else) in every type of scoring format (ppr and non-ppr). I get the fact that it's going to be difficult to repeat his #'s and remain as the #1 overall RB, but why is HE going to decline and those 3 rookies won't? AP--no question he's worthy of the back, the most talented runner in the league, 2 yrs of historyMJD--3 yrs of history, now even more carries, does it allSJax--has missed time but has elite production when on the fieldOnce you get past those guys, there are a lot more question marks. Of the remaining question marks, DeAngelo seems to have the fewest and did the most. I simply don't see a safer pick in the 4-5 range. In the end, it's more splitting hairs as all of these guys have potential to finish top 5 and all have some very good qualities about them. I actually wouldn't fault a single person for ranking the guys in the order you have them and putting DeAngelo where he is because the others (aside from Barber, IMO) have definite consideration to outperform him. What I don't understand is the AMOUNT of people who ALL feel the same way as you which consistently puts DeAngelo ~RB9-10. That's the part I don't get. The fact that he's a consensus late 1st/early 2nd round pick boggles my mind. I just don't understand how guys with seemingly more question marks and less of a track record consistently get ranked ahead of him. But, I'm not complaining. As I said above, landing SJax at 1.10 and DeAngelo at 2.3 are the types of things I love to see and be able to take advantage of. Just hope I end up being right about these guys although definitely possible I won't be.northern exposure said:
Tau837
Footballguy
Well, I certainly like MJD a lot, but I think you might be confusing me with someone else. I don't think I've posted much about MJD.joffer said:and if recall, you're a pretty big MJD fan aren't you?Just Win Baby said:-jb- said:Drafting tonight in a redraft and planning to take him at #2 if AP goes #1 as I expect.
northern exposure
Footballguy
Exactly. You can't just look at his totals from last season, you have to break it down game by game.He scored 20 TDs last season. He scored 4 TDs twice, 3 TDs once, 2 TDs twice, 1 TD 5 times and 0 TDs 6 times.
He rushed for 1,500 yards , but only had 8 games with 100 yards or over rushing.
Are these the stats of a #2 overall pick or a top 5 RB? He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
gianmarco
Footballguy
This has been pointed out before, but you should go pull the game logs for the top 2-3 RBs for every year. ALL of the top RB's put up those type of #'s. The #1 RB's don't rush for 100 yds every single game. 8 games of 100+ yds is A LOT. Your post shows that you're not familiar with the normal scoring pattern of top RB's.The second thing is that he didn't have a good 2nd half. He had a good final 12 games. That's a significant difference. When you factor that their O-line had significant changes heading into 2008, it could easily (and likely) represent the O-line learning to play together. I'll find the post that gives the breakdown of other RB's.Exactly. You can't just look at his totals from last season, you have to break it down game by game.He scored 20 TDs last season. He scored 4 TDs twice, 3 TDs once, 2 TDs twice, 1 TD 5 times and 0 TDs 6 times.
He rushed for 1,500 yards , but only had 8 games with 100 yards or over rushing.
Are these the stats of a #2 overall pick or a top 5 RB? He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
parrot
Footballguy
Peterson had 8 games with no TDsMJD - 7
Turner - 6
Forte - 7
Slaton - 8
Tomlinson - 8
You're going to have a tough time filling your top 5 with that as a criteria.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
Tau837
Footballguy
This has been pointed out before, but you should go pull the game logs for the top 2-3 RBs for every year. ALL of the top RB's put up those type of #'s. The #1 RB's don't rush for 100 yds every single game. 8 games of 100+ yds is A LOT. Your post shows that you're not familiar with the normal scoring pattern of top RB's.The second thing is that he didn't have a good 2nd half. He had a good final 12 games. That's a significant difference. When you factor that their O-line had significant changes heading into 2008, it could easily (and likely) represent the O-line learning to play together. I'll find the post that gives the breakdown of other RB's.Exactly. You can't just look at his totals from last season, you have to break it down game by game.He scored 20 TDs last season. He scored 4 TDs twice, 3 TDs once, 2 TDs twice, 1 TD 5 times and 0 TDs 6 times.
He rushed for 1,500 yards , but only had 8 games with 100 yards or over rushing.
Are these the stats of a #2 overall pick or a top 5 RB? He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
gianmarco
Footballguy
Other RB's and their TDs scored
Btw, in case you aren't aware, that last line above that is bolded.....That's DeAngelo.
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True but Forte & Slaton were rookies.. & this was Turners first year of starting and I had Forte even though he did not score a TD in 7 Games.. he still put up some decent numbers in several of them
northern exposure
Footballguy
First of all let me say I think we are closer to agreeing on DeAngelo than we are to disagreeing about him. The list of RBs I provided was in no particular order and contained RBs I prefer over DWilliams and RBs I like about the same.
You hit the nail right on the head when you said after the top 3 RBs there are alot of question marks. That is exactly why I can't understand why people are heralding DeAngelo as an obvious #2 overall pick and a for sure top 5 RB(I'm not lumping you into this group). The Panthers have a tougher schedule this season and anybody chasing what DeAngelo did last season will probably suffer the same fate as those that chased Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, LT2, Larry Johnson, etc. after they had career years.
The Panthers' running success was reliant on the duo of Williams and Stewart. If Stewart can't get healthy this season I think it hurts DeAngelo.
I prefer Chris Johnson over DeAngelo because he has no real competition at RB that does what he does. LenDale is fine at the stripe, but he can't match CJ between the 20's. Forte is a more complete RB imo (due to his pass catching ability) and the addition of Cutler should only mean he will be facing less 8 man fronts this season.
northern exposure
Footballguy
So are you saying that Goodson won't factor into the Panthers' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
At this point, I wonder why we even try?
Time to just shut-up , let him slide to me, and then chuckle when everyone next year who hated on him this year has him in their top 5. I'll jsut enjoy the ride at the front of the curve.
But I say to the haters to keep opting for that RB who has "proven" he can do it year in and year out. I think Clinton Portis is the pick for you this year. Is MJD more proven? What about S.Jackson or M.Turner or S.Slaton or C.Johnson? Portis is your pick.
Time to just shut-up , let him slide to me, and then chuckle when everyone next year who hated on him this year has him in their top 5. I'll jsut enjoy the ride at the front of the curve.
But I say to the haters to keep opting for that RB who has "proven" he can do it year in and year out. I think Clinton Portis is the pick for you this year. Is MJD more proven? What about S.Jackson or M.Turner or S.Slaton or C.Johnson? Portis is your pick.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Serious questions:1. Is it a knock on a player for him to perform well against bad teams? Is it a player's fault to land a schedule against poor rushing defenses? Is it possible for a very talented player to land an easy schedule and do well?So are you saying that Goodson won't factor into the Panthers' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?
2. Do you think DeAngelo is the first RB to face an easy schedule? If what he did was so easy to do against an easy run schedule, why don't more do it?
3. Is part of the reason that those teams had poor end of year rushing defense #"s because they had to face the likes of DeAngelo, Turner, and Pierre Thomas (as well as other talented RBs)?
4. Did you know that DeAngelo's schedule was only slightly below average? Strength of rush defenses from 2008
puckalicious
Footballguy
Yeah but that was against the Lions.... doesn't count!CalBear said:
Even though this topic has ben beaten like a
, I'll just chip in what I have observed. Beyond ADP and MJD, I think there are question marks surrounding every RB in the top 10. Just depends what risk you are more willing to take, IMO. Personally, I like to play the talent card, and just from what I observed watching games on DTV last year, I would feel comfortable picking Turner, DeAngelo, SJAX, Gore, or C Johnson anywhere 3-7 and be happy with it. In the end, we're all just rolling dice, anyways, so might as well see how the season plays out to settle a lot of the arguments for/against all of these RB's.
And if you back out the Carolina stats against those foes, the foes fall into the middle of the pack.Serious questions:1. Is it a knock on a player for him to perform well against bad teams? Is it a player's fault to land a schedule against poor rushing defenses? Is it possible for a very talented player to land an easy schedule and do well?So are you saying that Goodson won't factor into the Panthers' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?
2. Do you think DeAngelo is the first RB to face an easy schedule? If what he did was so easy to do against an easy run schedule, why don't more do it?
3. Is part of the reason that those teams had poor end of year rushing defense #"s because they had to face the likes of DeAngelo, Turner, and Pierre Thomas (as well as other talented RBs)?
4. Did you know that DeAngelo's schedule was only slightly below average? Strength of rush defenses from 2008
Tau837
Footballguy
I'm saying that I expect Williams to get more carries this season. I don't really care how the other carries are split up. If Stewart is healthy, I'd expect him to get most of the other carries. If he's not, I assume Goodson will get them. So what? Why would I care who gets them? The point is, Williams dominated last year, and his competition for carries right now is a guy who isn't healthy (and hasn't stayed healthy in college or the NFL) and a rookie. There is absolutely no reason to think that Williams won't get more carries this year. And Carolina should still have a dominant OL. And Carolina still has a head coach that favors an offense centered on running. It's not rocket science.And I couldn't care less about strength of schedule. Perceived strength of schedule in preseason is notoriously unreliable.I notice you did not answer my questions. Is that because you can't answer them in a way that helps the stance you are taking in this thread?So are you saying that Goodson won't factor into the Panthers' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
Let's not forget that DW fumbles as often as Lhucks makes a good ranking. Goodson has been laying the ball on the carpet like he has an incentive bonus tied to fumbles.I'm saying that I expect Williams to get more carries this season. I don't really care how the other carries are split up. If Stewart is healthy, I'd expect him to get most of the other carries. If he's not, I assume Goodson will get them. So what? Why would I care who gets them? The point is, Williams dominated last year, and his competition for carries right now is a guy who isn't healthy (and hasn't stayed healthy in college or the NFL) and a rookie. There is absolutely no reason to think that Williams won't get more carries this year. And Carolina should still have a dominant OL. And Carolina still has a head coach that favors an offense centered on running. It's not rocket science.And I couldn't care less about strength of schedule. Perceived strength of schedule in preseason is notoriously unreliable.I notice you did not answer my questions. Is that because you can't answer them in a way that helps the stance you are taking in this thread?So are you saying that Goodson won't factor into the Panthers' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
Mister CIA
Footballguy
After ADP, DeAngelo is the RB I'd most want to pay money to watch. John Fox's loyalty to the senior RB is well established.
Pretty simple arithmetic to me.
Pretty simple arithmetic to me.
Tau837
Footballguy
Let's not forget that DW fumbles as often as Lhucks makes a good ranking. Goodson has been laying the ball on the carpet like he has an incentive bonus tied to fumbles.I'm saying that I expect Williams to get more carries this season. I don't really care how the other carries are split up. If Stewart is healthy, I'd expect him to get most of the other carries. If he's not, I assume Goodson will get them. So what? Why would I care who gets them? The point is, Williams dominated last year, and his competition for carries right now is a guy who isn't healthy (and hasn't stayed healthy in college or the NFL) and a rookie. There is absolutely no reason to think that Williams won't get more carries this year. And Carolina should still have a dominant OL. And Carolina still has a head coach that favors an offense centered on running. It's not rocket science.And I couldn't care less about strength of schedule. Perceived strength of schedule in preseason is notoriously unreliable.I notice you did not answer my questions. Is that because you can't answer them in a way that helps the stance you are taking in this thread?So are you saying that Goodson won't factor into the Panthers' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
northern exposure
Footballguy
Serious answers to "serious" questions:1) No, it is not a knock on a player to perform well against bad teams, but you have to admit it is much more impressive to put up good numbers vs. strong competition than it is against weak teams. If a player performs well against teams that are weak vs. the run hasn't he merely done what is expected of him? If he doesn't perform well vs. weak run defenses than he doesn't really belong in the NFL, does he? Riddle me this, were you impressed by Tashard Choice's performances at the end of the season vs. The Steelers, Giants, Ravens and Eagles? I'm not saying Choice is as talented as DeAngelo, but I was impressed enough by his performance to want to see what he could do as the full time starting RB.Serious questions:1. Is it a knock on a player for him to perform well against bad teams? Is it a player's fault to land a schedule against poor rushing defenses? Is it possible for a very talented player to land an easy schedule and do well?So are you saying that Goodson won't factor into the Panthers' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?
2. Do you think DeAngelo is the first RB to face an easy schedule? If what he did was so easy to do against an easy run schedule, why don't more do it?
3. Is part of the reason that those teams had poor end of year rushing defense #"s because they had to face the likes of DeAngelo, Turner, and Pierre Thomas (as well as other talented RBs)?
4. Did you know that DeAngelo's schedule was only slightly below average? Strength of rush defenses from 2008
2) Obviously DeAngelo isn't the first RB to face an easy schedule, but how does that support his dominance exactly?
3) You are making a chicken/egg argument here. Are you seriously saying that run defenses can appear weaker because they have to face tough RBs? Each team in the NFC East ranked in the top 12 vs. the run last season. Not bad for a division that includes RBs like Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Brian Westbrook and Clinton Portis is it? They all put up pretty good overall numbers too, didn't they?
4) Lets look at the rankings for the rush defenses DW faced in his last 12 games: Chiefs-30, Bucs- 19, Saints -17, Cards-16 , Raiders-31, Lions- 32, Falcons-25, Packers-26, Bucs-19, Broncos-27, Giants-9, Saints-17. I count two teams in the top half of the league and 10 in the bottom half. In fact 6 were in the bottom 8 teams vs the run and that is slightly below average to you?
northern exposure
Footballguy
Wow, what is it like to know everything and be able to see into the future? So tell me, who you are drafting this year because "obviously" you never make a bad pick.BTW - be sure to post in here as well if DeAngelo comes back to earth this season, kay?
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gianmarco
Footballguy
1. You missed the point. Of course it would be great if he was able to showcase what he did against a good defense (which he did, btw, against the NYG, to the tune of 108 yds and 4 TDs, but I digress). But, if he\'s not afforded that luxury because of scheduling, what is he supposed to do? If AP, who many consider the most talented RB in the league, had a \"cupcake\" schedule like DeAngelo did and put up very good #\'s, is that a knock on him? Let\'s assume for a moment that DeAngelo is indeed ultra-talented and, say, the 2nd best RB in terms of ability in the NFL. What would he have had to do to prove that when he faced an easy schedule? Rush for 40 TDs and 2500 yds? The guy put up one of the highest TD totals and ypc averages for a RB in the history of the NFL. It\'s not as if he just had an average season. So again, yes, it would have been nice if he showcased what he could do against tough defenses, but just because he did it against an easier schedule doesn\'t make him less talented. Using what he did and my eyes watching him, I\'m quite confident saying his ability is elite and he\'s one of the top 2-3 most talented RB\'s in the NFL right now. 2. Again, if it was so easy to do, why haven\'t other RB\'s who have faced similarly easy schedules put up #\'s like him? You\'re making it sound as if the #\'s he put up were simply above average. They\'re not. They are spectacular. Look at this post here: DeAngelo\'s 2008 seasonSerious answers to \"serious\" questions:1) No, it is not a knock on a player to perform well against bad teams, but you have to admit it is much more impressive to put up good numbers vs. strong competition than it is against weak teams. If a player performs well against teams that are weak vs. the run hasn\'t he merely done what is expected of him? If he doesn\'t perform well vs. weak run defenses than he doesn\'t really belong in the NFL, does he? Riddle me this, were you impressed by Tashard Choice\'s performances at the end of the season vs. The Steelers, Giants, Ravens and Eagles? I\'m not saying Choice is as talented as DeAngelo, but I was impressed enough by his performance to want to see what he could do as the full time starting RB.Serious questions:1. Is it a knock on a player for him to perform well against bad teams? Is it a player\'s fault to land a schedule against poor rushing defenses? Is it possible for a very talented player to land an easy schedule and do well?So are you saying that Goodson won\'t factor into the Panthers\' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don\'t call that ordinary.
And of the 5 games he didn\'t, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I\'m not, barring injury.
On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?
2. Do you think DeAngelo is the first RB to face an easy schedule? If what he did was so easy to do against an easy run schedule, why don\'t more do it?
3. Is part of the reason that those teams had poor end of year rushing defense #\"s because they had to face the likes of DeAngelo, Turner, and Pierre Thomas (as well as other talented RBs)?
4. Did you know that DeAngelo\'s schedule was only slightly below average? Strength of rush defenses from 2008
2) Obviously DeAngelo isn\'t the first RB to face an easy schedule, but how does that support his dominance exactly?
3) You are making a chicken/egg argument here. Are you seriously saying that run defenses can appear weaker because they have to face tough RBs? Each team in the NFC East ranked in the top 12 vs. the run last season. Not bad for a division that includes RBs like Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Brian Westbrook and Clinton Portis is it? They all put up pretty good overall numbers too, didn\'t they?
4) Lets look at the rankings for the rush defenses DW faced in his last 12 games: Chiefs-30, Bucs- 19, Saints -17, Cards-16 , Raiders-31, Lions- 32, Falcons-25, Packers-26, Bucs-19, Broncos-27, Giants-9, Saints-17. I count two teams in the top half of the league and 10 in the bottom half. In fact 6 were in the bottom 8 teams vs the run and that is slightly below average to you?
Look at the company of RB\'s he joined with his #\'s and how elite his season was. If it were so easy to do, then other RB\'s who had easy schedules would be doing the same thing. They don\'t. So, he didn\'t just do what was expected of him with his schedule. He went way above and beyond.3. It\'s a chicken/egg argument but it\'s tough to prove either way. Did those RB\'s do well because of the defenses they faced or did those defenses #\'s look worse bc of the RB\'s they faced. It\'s difficult to tease that out when, as a group, those RB\'s performed so well.
4. Did you even bother to click on that link and read the article? I don\'t think you did. It addresses #3 and #4. Using simple rankings doesn\'t always give you the whole story just like using end of year #\'s doesn\'t always tell you how good or bad a player really was. It's not slightly below average to me. That's the conclusion that Chase came up with after he performed the calculations. If you have an issue with it, then you should explain where the flaw is in his work. Otherwise, just using the end of year #'s doesn't cut it.
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northern exposure
Footballguy
I think we are going round and round here and you are essentially debating through me with all anti-DeAngelo posters in this thread. I never said DeAngelo is not a talented RB. My point is that last season was a "perfect storm" scenario for him and I don't automatically assume he will repeat or improve on that performance this season. I think people are underestimating the effect Stewart had on DeAngelo's numbers. You obviously don't see my opinion as credible, so read this brief article from the Charlotte Observer:Panthers' TC Notes1. You missed the point. Of course it would be great if he was able to showcase what he did against a good defense (which he did, btw, against the NYG, to the tune of 108 yds and 4 TDs, but I digress). But, if he\'s not afforded that luxury because of scheduling, what is he supposed to do? If AP, who many consider the most talented RB in the league, had a \"cupcake\" schedule like DeAngelo did and put up very good #\'s, is that a knock on him? Let\'s assume for a moment that DeAngelo is indeed ultra-talented and, say, the 2nd best RB in terms of ability in the NFL. What would he have had to do to prove that when he faced an easy schedule? Rush for 40 TDs and 2500 yds? The guy put up one of the highest TD totals and ypc averages for a RB in the history of the NFL. It\'s not as if he just had an average season. So again, yes, it would have been nice if he showcased what he could do against tough defenses, but just because he did it against an easier schedule doesn\'t make him less talented. Using what he did and my eyes watching him, I\'m quite confident saying his ability is elite and he\'s one of the top 2-3 most talented RB\'s in the NFL right now. 2. Again, if it was so easy to do, why haven\'t other RB\'s who have faced similarly easy schedules put up #\'s like him? You\'re making it sound as if the #\'s he put up were simply above average. They\'re not. They are spectacular. Look at this post here: DeAngelo\'s 2008 seasonSerious answers to \"serious\" questions:1) No, it is not a knock on a player to perform well against bad teams, but you have to admit it is much more impressive to put up good numbers vs. strong competition than it is against weak teams. If a player performs well against teams that are weak vs. the run hasn\'t he merely done what is expected of him? If he doesn\'t perform well vs. weak run defenses than he doesn\'t really belong in the NFL, does he? Riddle me this, were you impressed by Tashard Choice\'s performances at the end of the season vs. The Steelers, Giants, Ravens and Eagles? I\'m not saying Choice is as talented as DeAngelo, but I was impressed enough by his performance to want to see what he could do as the full time starting RB.Serious questions:So are you saying that Goodson won\'t factor into the Panthers\' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?
Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.
1. Is it a knock on a player for him to perform well against bad teams? Is it a player\'s fault to land a schedule against poor rushing defenses? Is it possible for a very talented player to land an easy schedule and do well?
2. Do you think DeAngelo is the first RB to face an easy schedule? If what he did was so easy to do against an easy run schedule, why don\'t more do it?
3. Is part of the reason that those teams had poor end of year rushing defense #\"s because they had to face the likes of DeAngelo, Turner, and Pierre Thomas (as well as other talented RBs)?
4. Did you know that DeAngelo\'s schedule was only slightly below average? Strength of rush defenses from 2008
2) Obviously DeAngelo isn\'t the first RB to face an easy schedule, but how does that support his dominance exactly?
3) You are making a chicken/egg argument here. Are you seriously saying that run defenses can appear weaker because they have to face tough RBs? Each team in the NFC East ranked in the top 12 vs. the run last season. Not bad for a division that includes RBs like Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Brian Westbrook and Clinton Portis is it? They all put up pretty good overall numbers too, didn\'t they?
4) Lets look at the rankings for the rush defenses DW faced in his last 12 games: Chiefs-30, Bucs- 19, Saints -17, Cards-16 , Raiders-31, Lions- 32, Falcons-25, Packers-26, Bucs-19, Broncos-27, Giants-9, Saints-17. I count two teams in the top half of the league and 10 in the bottom half. In fact 6 were in the bottom 8 teams vs the run and that is slightly below average to you?
Look at the company of RB\'s he joined with his #\'s and how elite his season was. If it were so easy to do, then other RB\'s who had easy schedules would be doing the same thing. They don\'t. So, he didn\'t just do what was expected of him with his schedule. He went way above and beyond.3. It\'s a chicken/egg argument but it\'s tough to prove either way. Did those RB\'s do well because of the defenses they faced or did those defenses #\'s look worse bc of the RB\'s they faced. It\'s difficult to tease that out when, as a group, those RB\'s performed so well.
4. Did you even bother to click on that link and read the article? I don\'t think you did. It addresses #3 and #4. Using simple rankings doesn\'t always give you the whole story just like using end of year #\'s doesn\'t always tell you how good or bad a player really was. It's not slightly below average to me. That's the conclusion that Chase came up with after he performed the calculations. If you have an issue with it, then you should explain where the flaw is in his work. Otherwise, just using the end of year #'s doesn't cut it.
As odd as it sounds, part of the reason for DeAngelo's success was the opposite running style of Stewart. So, those assuming that less carries for Stewart results in more carries for DeAngelo at the same ypc average he achieved last season may be sadly mistaken. I just don't think you can say if Williams gets x # of more carries this season you can automatically multiply that number by 5 to 5.5 ypc and say that is how many more yards he will get on top of what he did last season.
Bottom line is we can analyze last season's numbers all we want, they do not provide a 100% accurate prediction of what will happen this season. That is why they play the games and why we watch them. If everybody knew and agreed on the results before they happened, why would we watch the games and why would we play fantasy football for that matter?
I rely on my gut feeling when I draft and my gut tells me DeAngelo will fall back to earth somewhat this season, so I would not take him as the #2RB off the board. Barring injury I like MJD as a better bet this season.
All we have to give now is our opinions, we won't know which side in the debate is right until the end of the season.
P.S. I did click on the link you provided, but could not get it to work.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Actually, I'm not expecting #'s from last year. I definitely think his ypc will not approach 5.5 again this year. I'd be thrilled if he could even maintain 5.0, which would be success. I also don't think he's going to score 20 TDs again. So, no, that's not the reason why I like DeAngelo. But, at the same time, I don't think Turner is going to have 376 carries again or score 17 TDs. I don't think Forte is goign to have almost 400 touches again. I don't think CJ3 can also maintain an almost 5.0 ypc and score double digit TDs. Ditto for Slaton. In other words, ALL of these guys have a ways to fall back down to earth. And, of all of these, I think DeAngelo has more cushion to fall and still remain ahead of the rest. I also firmly believe he's more talented than all of them. And, I think his situation is actually the best of all them (yes, with Stewart in the fold). I think it's very reasonable that DeAngelo gets as many, if not more carries, and should easily score double digit TDs barring injury. I can't say the same for the rest. They ALL could repeat their #'s or even outperform them, but DeAngelo just seems safer than the rest and has a higher upside than them as evidenced by last year. When you say you trust your gut that DeAngelo will fall back to earth, I understand that. By why isn't your gut saying that about the other guys like Forte, Slaton, CJ3, Turner...?
As I said, I think DeAngelo's #'s come down. But I think it's very likely the others do too. And if I had to lay %'s as to who's least likely to have a significant change, that goes to Williams. I actually like all of the RB's ranked this high and would be happy drafting from any part of the 1st round this year because they all have legitimate upside and have, overall, fewer ? marks than RB's in the recent past that I can remember. I can see legit reasons in a head to head where all of these guys could be ranked above Williams. I'm not discounting that at all. But, as I also stated above, it's amazing to me that so many feel that way and that he, as a consensus, is ranked lower than ALL of them. It's splitting hairs, but I find it interesting. And I guess the reasons behind why (Stewart, easy schedule) seem "safer" to me than some of the issues with the other guys. Probably because I don't see Stewart as a threat at all (no reason to take carries from a 4th year vet with the season he had to give to a 2nd year injured RB) nor do I think his results were only as a result of an easy schedule (wasn't as easy as people make it out and he still murdered that schedule with eye-popping #'s and ran well against good defenses too). I guess that's our fundamental difference.
Will definitely be interesting to see how the year plays out. By the way, the statement about me not finding your opinion credible is not true. I understand it and I can see why you and others feel that way. I don't agree with those reasons and that's ok. That's why we're here and, no matter how the season plays out, there's reasons behind both arguments that are legitimate.
northern exposure
Footballguy
What questions was I supposed to answer exactly?His fantasy point production in his last ten games was very good.I'm saying that I expect Williams to get more carries this season. I don't really care how the other carries are split up. If Stewart is healthy, I'd expect him to get most of the other carries. If he's not, I assume Goodson will get them. So what? Why would I care who gets them? The point is, Williams dominated last year, and his competition for carries right now is a guy who isn't healthy (and hasn't stayed healthy in college or the NFL) and a rookie. There is absolutely no reason to think that Williams won't get more carries this year. And Carolina should still have a dominant OL. And Carolina still has a head coach that favors an offense centered on running. It's not rocket science.And I couldn't care less about strength of schedule. Perceived strength of schedule in preseason is notoriously unreliable.So are you saying that Goodson won't factor into the Panthers' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?
I notice you did not answer my questions. Is that because you can't answer them in a way that helps the stance you are taking in this thread?
Am I expecting him to get less than 12 carries in a game this season barring injury? No, but my crystal ball isn't working so well and John Fox won't return my calls, so I really don't know what will happen this season and how he'll use the Williams/ Stewart/Goodson group at RB. Fox likes to share carries among his RBs, so I would only be guessing how he will split them up among the trio.
Do I think at this point in time the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more or less touches this season? Right now I would say less touches for Stewart, but the Panthers play a 16 game schedule and anything can happen throughout the season. Stewart's rest during TC could result in more touches for him as the season wears on. Goodson could also improve as the season goes on and get more touches too. Or do you think the Panthers drafted Goodson because they thought he would look good sitting on the bench?
Teams that are heavily reliant on the run game also tend to be teams that often play with the lead. The Panthers lose of their NT Kemoeatu will hurt their run defense and their pass defense was average last season and hasn't looked any better in the pre-season. So, worse defense= less playing with the lead...well you can figure out the rest right? It ain't rocket science.
I find it funny that you state "Perceived strength of schedule in preseason is notoriously unreliable" when your entire argument about how well DeAngelo will do this season is based on how he performed last season.
gianmarco
Footballguy
See, there's quite a few issues with your post here:1. Goodson was drafted as depth. Just because he's a RB on the roster doesn't mean he automatically becomes a part of the committee, especially when your top 2 guys are DeAngelo and Stewart. I don't care how good Goodson has looked, you don't take the ball out of DeAngelo's hands and give it someone other than Stewart. The only time Goodson sees any carries is if one of the top 2 guys is out. You didn't think they'd head into the season with only 2 RBs, did you? Their current backups are Jamall Lee and Birmingham. One's a rookie and one is a 2nd year player. So, do you think with only DeAngelo and Stewart that they wouldn't acquire a decent 3rd RB either thru the draft or FA? So yes, Goodson will look good on the bench unless he's contributing on special teams or one of the top 2 guys gets hurt. For this year, at least.What questions was I supposed to answer exactly?His fantasy point production in his last ten games was very good.I'm saying that I expect Williams to get more carries this season. I don't really care how the other carries are split up. If Stewart is healthy, I'd expect him to get most of the other carries. If he's not, I assume Goodson will get them. So what? Why would I care who gets them? The point is, Williams dominated last year, and his competition for carries right now is a guy who isn't healthy (and hasn't stayed healthy in college or the NFL) and a rookie. There is absolutely no reason to think that Williams won't get more carries this year. And Carolina should still have a dominant OL. And Carolina still has a head coach that favors an offense centered on running. It's not rocket science.And I couldn't care less about strength of schedule. Perceived strength of schedule in preseason is notoriously unreliable.So are you saying that Goodson won't factor into the Panthers' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.
On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?
I notice you did not answer my questions. Is that because you can't answer them in a way that helps the stance you are taking in this thread?
Am I expecting him to get less than 12 carries in a game this season barring injury? No, but my crystal ball isn't working so well and John Fox won't return my calls, so I really don't know what will happen this season and how he'll use the Williams/ Stewart/Goodson group at RB. Fox likes to share carries among his RBs, so I would only be guessing how he will split them up among the trio.
Do I think at this point in time the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more or less touches this season? Right now I would say less touches for Stewart, but the Panthers play a 16 game schedule and anything can happen throughout the season. Stewart's rest during TC could result in more touches for him as the season wears on. Goodson could also improve as the season goes on and get more touches too. Or do you think the Panthers drafted Goodson because they thought he would look good sitting on the bench?
Teams that are heavily reliant on the run game also tend to be teams that often play with the lead. The Panthers lose of their NT Kemoeatu will hurt their run defense and their pass defense was average last season and hasn't looked any better in the pre-season. So, worse defense= less playing with the lead...well you can figure out the rest right? It ain't rocket science.
I find it funny that you state "Perceived strength of schedule in preseason is notoriously unreliable" when your entire argument about how well DeAngelo will do this season is based on how he performed last season.
2. Do you think Minnesota played with the lead a lot last year? Do you think Houston played with the lead a lot last year? What about St. Louis? How about SF? Your theory here is a myth that constantly gets stated around here and it simply isn't true. Yes, some RBs may get more chances on a team that plays with a lead, but a team that has a worse defense doesn't necessarily mean they are going to take touches away from their stud RB.
3. Your last statement is riddled with fallacies. It's been clearly shown that the previous year's SOS is helpful in predicting future performance while preseason SOS is almost completely worthless. I'll try and do a search and find that for you although I'm sure Chase Stuart can easily track it down. So JWB's statement is completely accurate and not "funny" at all.
northern exposure
Footballguy
Actually my gut has lots of opinions about these guys as well. LOL. I haven't mentioned them because this thread is about DW. But, I'm not sold on Slaton because Kubiak doesn't seem to be sold on Slaton. If you bring in Chris "Friggin" Brown as your short yardage, goal line back it does not say good things about your starting RB. Turner had a very good season last year, but didn't perform well against good Run D's so I'm not sold on him either.
I do like Forte because the Bears are committed to the run and the arrival of Cutler should make opposing Ds more worried about Chicago's passing game this season. I'm also a fan of CJ3 because of his amazing open field moves and the Titan's reliance on the ground game. The additions of Washington and Britt should also help their passing game and open things up a bit more for them on the ground.
omally
Footballguy
Turner rushed for 70 yards and a TD against Minnesota last season which wasn't too shabby considering Norwood got work in the game too, and the Vikings are very good against the run.
northern exposure
Footballguy
I assume you mean the week 16 Falcons vs. Vikings game? Not so impressive when you consider that Pat Williams (one half of the Williams Wall in Minnesota. Kevin is the other half) the starting NT for the Vikings did not play in that game and he's a run stuffing demon. Turner still only averaged 3.7 ypc.
facook
Footballguy
I think it's almost inevitable that Williams regresses from last year somewhat. Who can rightfully expect 5.5/ and 20 tds? That said, though, if he's healthy and his line is healthy, what's his floor? 13-1400 yds and 12 tds? 10? I've drafted the guy at 10 and 12 in my two money drafts. I'll take that floor with the possible upside he brings to the table.
Tau837
Footballguy
Who is saying this?
northern exposure
Footballguy
1) So with the move to RBBC being made by more and more NFL teams you are saying there is little to no chance Goodson takes carries from Stewart and Williams barring injury? So why did the Giants use Jacobs, Ward and Bradshaw last season? Yes there were some injuries involved , but more teams seem to be moving to a 2 or 3 man backfield. The point is most in this thread are assuming that the only way Goodson will get touches is if he takes them from Stewart. But, given that his running style is more similar to Williams isn't it possible that he might be put into the game with Stewart to spell DeAngelo?2) Of the teams you mentioned (Minnesota, Houston, St. Louis and SF) what did they all have in common last season? Below average QB play. They either had young, inexperienced QBs playing because they were the best option (or because the starter was injured) or older career backups at QB. So, if you have subpar QB play (and except for the Texans) below average WRs and a star RB in your backfield like ADP, SJax, Gore or Slaton are you more likely to run the ball or less likely? Delhomme is not a great QB, but somehow every year Steve Smith seems to bail him out and give some balance to the Panthers offense. Houston is definitely the exception with their elite WRs, but the other teams had subpar air attacks. So, more reliance on the ground game was inevitable.See, there's quite a few issues with your post here:1. Goodson was drafted as depth. Just because he's a RB on the roster doesn't mean he automatically becomes a part of the committee, especially when your top 2 guys are DeAngelo and Stewart. I don't care how good Goodson has looked, you don't take the ball out of DeAngelo's hands and give it someone other than Stewart. The only time Goodson sees any carries is if one of the top 2 guys is out. You didn't think they'd head into the season with only 2 RBs, did you? Their current backups are Jamall Lee and Birmingham. One's a rookie and one is a 2nd year player. So, do you think with only DeAngelo and Stewart that they wouldn't acquire a decent 3rd RB either thru the draft or FA? So yes, Goodson will look good on the bench unless he's contributing on special teams or one of the top 2 guys gets hurt. For this year, at least.What questions was I supposed to answer exactly?His fantasy point production in his last ten games was very good.I'm saying that I expect Williams to get more carries this season. I don't really care how the other carries are split up. If Stewart is healthy, I'd expect him to get most of the other carries. If he's not, I assume Goodson will get them. So what? Why would I care who gets them? The point is, Williams dominated last year, and his competition for carries right now is a guy who isn't healthy (and hasn't stayed healthy in college or the NFL) and a rookie. There is absolutely no reason to think that Williams won't get more carries this year. And Carolina should still have a dominant OL. And Carolina still has a head coach that favors an offense centered on running. It's not rocket science.And I couldn't care less about strength of schedule. Perceived strength of schedule in preseason is notoriously unreliable.So are you saying that Goodson won't factor into the Panthers' distribution of carries whether Stewart is fully healthy or not?Also, lets look at the opponents the Panthers faced in the last 12 games of the 2008 season. Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Cards, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Broncos, Giants, Saints. Now look up where these teams ranked in terms of run defense last season and tell me if you expect DeAngelo to repeat those numbers this season.Williams had 11 games with 13 or more fantasy points last season, including 10 straight to close the season. I don't call that ordinary.
And of the 5 games he didn't, in 3 of them he had fewer than 12 carries... are you expecting him to have any games this season with fewer than 12 carries? I'm not, barring injury.
On top of that, last season the Panthers began the season with less confidence in Williams and started off giving Stewart a greater share of the RB touches. All 5 of those games with fewer than 13 fantasy points occurred during the first 6 weeks last year, before they realized what they had in Williams and started giving him more touches. Given what we saw down the stretch last year, plus the fact that Stewart has been hurt and barely practicing for weeks, do you think the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more touches or less touches this year?
I notice you did not answer my questions. Is that because you can't answer them in a way that helps the stance you are taking in this thread?
Am I expecting him to get less than 12 carries in a game this season barring injury? No, but my crystal ball isn't working so well and John Fox won't return my calls, so I really don't know what will happen this season and how he'll use the Williams/ Stewart/Goodson group at RB. Fox likes to share carries among his RBs, so I would only be guessing how he will split them up among the trio.
Do I think at this point in time the Panthers are inclined to give Stewart more or less touches this season? Right now I would say less touches for Stewart, but the Panthers play a 16 game schedule and anything can happen throughout the season. Stewart's rest during TC could result in more touches for him as the season wears on. Goodson could also improve as the season goes on and get more touches too. Or do you think the Panthers drafted Goodson because they thought he would look good sitting on the bench?
Teams that are heavily reliant on the run game also tend to be teams that often play with the lead. The Panthers lose of their NT Kemoeatu will hurt their run defense and their pass defense was average last season and hasn't looked any better in the pre-season. So, worse defense= less playing with the lead...well you can figure out the rest right? It ain't rocket science.
I find it funny that you state "Perceived strength of schedule in preseason is notoriously unreliable" when your entire argument about how well DeAngelo will do this season is based on how he performed last season.
2. Do you think Minnesota played with the lead a lot last year? Do you think Houston played with the lead a lot last year? What about St. Louis? How about SF? Your theory here is a myth that constantly gets stated around here and it simply isn't true. Yes, some RBs may get more chances on a team that plays with a lead, but a team that has a worse defense doesn't necessarily mean they are going to take touches away from their stud RB.
3. Your last statement is riddled with fallacies. It's been clearly shown that the previous year's SOS is helpful in predicting future performance while preseason SOS is almost completely worthless. I'll try and do a search and find that for you although I'm sure Chase Stuart can easily track it down. So JWB's statement is completely accurate and not "funny" at all.
3)I'm sorry I don't follow this statement. "It's been clearly shown that the previous year's SOS is helpful in predicting future performance while preseason SOS is almost completely worthless." How is the previous year's SOS helpful in predicting future performance? I would like you to expand this statement, so I know where you are coming from. I pointed out earlier that Williams put up good numbers vs. weak run defenses last season and said his games this season appear to be against stronger run defenses. But until the games start isn't it all speculation?
What are you referring to as preseason SOS? I take a look at how teams performed the previous season and then by analyzing key additions/deletions to their rosters, scheme changes,etc. try to determine how they will perform this season. For example, a team like the Colts that struggled vs. the run last season added some size and weight to their D-line, so they should perform better vs. the run this season. The Titans lost Haynesworth who was a key to their run stopping ability, so I expect them to regress somewhat vs. the run this season. I put very little weight on the fact that the Packers D has looked dominant in the preseason. Teams just don't show their complete offensive playbook in the pre-season, so the games are not an accurate prediction of results in the regular season.
jackdubl
Footballguy
Maybe you should try watching some games and watch the guy play if you're confused. Dude is a STUD.
I shouldn't be a lazy b%^%rd but I believe those games with 0 TDs came early in the year when everyone and their brother was thinking the split between him and Stewart was going to be 60-40 favoring Stewart. I should look it up, but I won't...I'm being lazy.Exactly. You can't just look at his totals from last season, you have to break it down game by game.He scored 20 TDs last season. He scored 4 TDs twice, 3 TDs once, 2 TDs twice, 1 TD 5 times and 0 TDs 6 times.
He rushed for 1,500 yards , but only had 8 games with 100 yards or over rushing.
Are these the stats of a #2 overall pick or a top 5 RB? He was a great guy to start when he had a monster game, otherwise he was kind of ordinary
northern exposure
Footballguy
If you truly were at the front of the curve wouldn't you have drafted DeAngelo early in the first round during last season's draft? If you draft him early in the first round this season aren't you drafting the #1RB in fantasy from last season? Explain to me how that puts you at the front of the curve?
drfeelgood
Footballguy
You already addressed his exact post once before. Are you just coming back for more to continue to pick a fight with him?
northern exposure
Footballguy
BUMP. Great spirited debate about DeAngelo in this thread. The season is over and Williams ends up with 216 rushes for 1,117 yards, 7 rushing TDs and 29 catches for 252 yards (that puts him as the RB17 in the ppr leagues I'm in). He lost 3 games to injury, so that obviously affects his totals, but what do you see DeAngelo doing in the 2010 season? Does the Panthers backfield become more of an even split? Will the Carolina passing game improve in 2010 if they move from Delhomme to Moore (according to rumors) and help take some pressure and defensive focus of the Panther ground game?
Where would you rank DeAngelo among RBs for the 2010 season?
Where would you rank DeAngelo among RBs for the 2010 season?
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I personally think he will be traded heading into the year.I'm calling him being a Texan or a Dolphin next year
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't see that happening. His salary in 2010 ($725K) is a steal, and by far the best thing the team has going for it is its running game. Stewart looks great, but if the Panthers traded Williams and Stewart were to get hurt, they'd be left with Goodson and Sutton to carry the offense.
: Unless you think they are going to draft another RB this year... but why do that when they can just keep Williams for a cheap price?
identikit
Footballguy
I don't see that happening. His salary in 2010 ($725K) is a steal, and by far the best thing the team has going for it is its running game. Stewart looks great, but if the Panthers traded Williams and Stewart were to get hurt, they'd be left with Goodson and Sutton to carry the offense.: Unless you think they are going to draft another RB this year... but why do that when they can just keep Williams for a cheap price?
I believe he's staying in Carolina...
switz
Footballguy
Guess who didn't have an increase in carries.
drfeelgood
Footballguy
Didn't you just recently scold someone for bumping threads to show people were wrong? I'm positive you did in a recently bumped Chris Johnson thread where you were wrong about Johnson.Guess who didn't have an increase in carries.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
The thread was already bumped today. Switz just responded. I don't see the big deal.More interesting than this nitpicking is whether or not Deangelo and Stewart see a more even split of carries next year. Stewart looked phenomenal the past few games. Doesn't this earn him more PT?Didn't you just recently scold someone for bumping threads to show people were wrong? I'm positive you did in a recently bumped Chris Johnson thread where you were wrong about Johnson.Guess who didn't have an increase in carries.
drfeelgood
Footballguy
That may depend on his achilles.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
While I see your point you can also make the arguement that his low price tag could garnett Carolina more in a trade from another team. It's hard to get a rb in his prime, without alot of mileage with a low pricetag ($$$$$$).Williams offers this for a team.I know a few years ago E. James and S. Alexander's value weren't worth a #2 but you have to remember they were quickly approaching 30 with along of miles on them and awaiting big $$$$. Williams is cheap this year and while wanting a nice chunk of change not expecting top rb salary in 2011.While Goodson and Sutton aren't on the same page with Stewart and DWill they are very nice backups.I can't see Carolina keeping both JStew and Dwill long term, they might as well get something in return for him this year.I don't see that happening. His salary in 2010 ($725K) is a steal, and by far the best thing the team has going for it is its running game. Stewart looks great, but if the Panthers traded Williams and Stewart were to get hurt, they'd be left with Goodson and Sutton to carry the offense.
Tau837
Footballguy
Why would it? Williams looked phenomenal down the stretch last season, yet Fox chose to start him off with only 41 carries in the first 3 games this year, all losses. He did give him the ball more after that, and Williams played great for the next several games before getting hurt.Fox has shown in the past that he favors veterans, which in this case is Williams. And he showed this year that he doesn't let a hot finish to last season affect his thinking the next season with regard to dividing carries. If Williams is on the team and healthy, I'd expect him to be starting and getting 60% of the carries.The thread was already bumped today. Switz just responded. I don't see the big deal.More interesting than this nitpicking is whether or not Deangelo and Stewart see a more even split of carries next year. Stewart looked phenomenal the past few games. Doesn't this earn him more PT?Didn't you just recently scold someone for bumping threads to show people were wrong? I'm positive you did in a recently bumped Chris Johnson thread where you were wrong about Johnson.Guess who didn't have an increase in carries.
