Death of drafting RB/RB (1 Viewer)

[Isotopes]

I think it is somewhat foolish to go into a draft with any type of preconceived pattern of drafting, ie, rb-rb or wr-wr. Sure, you will likely have a target for your first pick - but beyond that you have to take what the board gives you. I read the article and it is very good, and makes alot of sense. However, if I am sitting with my second pick and there has just been a run on wide receivers, I am gonna grab another rb. I think if you go into a draft with the foregone conclusion of taking wide receivers in the 2nd and 3rd round, you are limiting yourself and may not get the best value out of your pick.

One thing that you need to consider also, is running backs tend to have higher trade values than wide receivers...so if you end up with a stable of rbs on your roster, there is a good chance you can deal one of them for a quality wide receiver....and potentially a wide receiver drafted before the rb in question.

 

[Sheriff66]

I agree with the article, had good success last year in 2 leagues and didn't go RB-RB in either...

1st league went RB-WR-WR-WR

2nd league went RB-WR-WR-RB

 

[Isotopes]

Some of us are very comfortable going into the season with Plaxico Burres/Roy Williams or Calvin Johnson/Jericho Cotchery to go with a stable of starting RBs.

While it is true that RBBC is coming back into popularity in the NFL, last year was still an aberration in terms of the number of high ranked backs that were terrible or near terrible. This year it could just as easily be the top WRs that under-perform as a group.

The great thing is that with so many people abandoning RB/RB or RB/RB/RB, this year it's easier to execute than ever.

 

[mchaps55]

A league member in my 12 team(ppr) local league among friends did the following with his 11th pick in the 1st round.

1st-Randy Moss

then

2nd-B. Edwards

3rd-S. Smith

4th-D. Mcfadden

5th-T. Jones

This league has beeing going strong for years(for me 14 years) and I have never seen anyone go 3 wr with his first three picks and I think it turned out quite well with him. His qb is Schuab and his Te is Shockey.

I did the old rb in the 1st wr/wr in the 2nd and the 3rd:

I nabbed

1st-Barber

2nd-Cholston

3rd-Marshall

4th-Winslow

5th-Turner

my qb's end of being a qbbc of garrard, rodgers, cutler..............

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

So let me ask this, does draft position have any bearing on this arguement? If you are drafting 12th (out of 12) and Grant and Lynch are still there along with every WR not named Randy Moss or TO, do you still go RBRB? Why would you not take one of each here?

 

[cowpie]

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football...thof2rbstrategy

Thankfully, I have not employed the RB/RB strategy since the pre-ought years. It usually makes sense to see these things coming before everyone else rather than waiting for the majority and then following suit. You can't be a perenial champion by following the crowd.

And this year that just might mean going RB-RB.

I went RB/RB/RB in a mock the other day w/ MJD and LJ at the 2/3 turn. 7-10 WRs are going in the 1st 2 rounds this year.

What WR's did you end up with? By nailing the RB position with 3 really solid backs, you prolly sacrificed WR as the trend towards WR in the second and 3rd is huge this year. As another poster alluded to, this is prolly an over reaction to last year.

ESPN saying that you shouldn't draft 2 rbs first is reason enough for me to make sure that I draft 2 rbs as soon as possible.

Where are all these stud 2nd-round wide receivers anyway? I only count 3. Terrell Owens (age), Reggie Wayne (QB, Harrison's return), and Larry Fitzgerald (QB) and each of those players have their own question marks.

Randy Moss, Braylon down? Most will throw AJ and Colston in there too. For every question you bring up about these WR's, people are finding more with the tier2/3 RB's. I think the point is that managers are steering towards trusting these guys over second and third tier RB's and hence the run on WR's in the 2nd/3rd. In a start 3 WR league/PPR league, going RB-RB may solidify that position, but WR will be totally picked over down to the Bowe, Roy, Jennings...group.

and they are foolish.

 

[tommyGunZ]

This isn't rocket science, and I'm sure we all have different strategies that have been both successful and unsuccessful throughout the years. A couple of ideas that I employ when drafting, a couple of which have been mentioned, that I think are especially important:

- More important to avoid busts in early rounds than to draft "steals". For me, that means I likely won't get Calvin Johnson this year, though I agree that he'll probably finish top 10.

- Give a little extra weight to drafting a different position in round 2 than you took in round 1. I'm not saying you should pass on Marshawn Lynch late in the 2nd if you took Peterson in the first. I'm saying that if you have two guys with equal grades/value in round 2, a tiebreaker is taking the position you didn't take in the 1st. This allows you much greater flexibility in rounds 3-5 to add value where ever it falls, instead of feeling forced to fill the position you didn't take in rounds 1 & 2. Nothing worse than going RB-RB, only to see a great RB value fall to you in round 3.

- Overvalue QBs. For years, I waited and waited and waited on QBs. I'm now the opposite. With so many RB time shares, and so much information out there, it is much easier to find RB gems and waiver wire WRs who can be plugged in. The advantage that a 30+TD QB gives you can not be underestimated, especially in highly competitive leagues where people pay attention.

- Give added value to "healthy" players. By far the most random and biggest factor in fantasy success or failure is injury. While no one can predict injury, it's also not hard to look at career data and determine players who are less likely to miss time than others. On a macro level, that means bumping the value of iron man QBs and most WRs in early rounds.

- Avoid 2nd round RBs. Again, if Marshawn Lynch or Stephen Jackson is somehow available in round 2, I'm not advocating they be passed over. I'm talking about RBs with 2nd round ADPs. Obviously a couple of 2nd round RBs will pay dividends, but in my opinion, nothing is more risky or dangerous than 2nd round RBs. It seems that half of them end up being busts, or provide only decent return on their investments, when far better and safer bets on WRs or QBs are available. Sure this means that you'll be hunting RBs in rounds 4-6, but there are always bargains to be found there as well, and with far less risk.

My 2 cents...

 

[Tanner9919]

Must read from ESPN -

Here is the summation of the article: "The market for 2SRBDS is saturated; too many people are employing the strategy, even as the value of the second tier of running backs is diminishing by specialized roles. So what's a savvy fantasy owner to do? Simple. Just bow your head in a moment of reflection and take solace in the fact that while you know 2SRBDS is dead, others don't, and you'll have an advantage because of it. Then, go draft a stud wide receiver in the second round."

The entire link is a must read - http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football...thof2rbstrategy

Once we begin to see articles from ESPN stating that the idea of drafting RB/RB in first two rounds is `dead`, it can only mean one thingRAFT RB/RB !!!!!!!

last year was the season of the WR's, and, as defenses adjusted during the off-season,we're likely to see an increase in rush yards because defenses are more geared towards stopping the pass now..

then, next year, once defenses see that teams ran a lot in 2008, they'll converge on the running game, and WR's stats will go thru the roof..

typical ebb and flow of the NFL...

and once a major sports entity like ESPN proclaims the idea that drafting RB/RB is 'dead', you can bet your bottom dollar RB's will be the story of the 2008 season...

 

[cowpie]

Must read from ESPN -

Here is the summation of the article: "The market for 2SRBDS is saturated; too many people are employing the strategy, even as the value of the second tier of running backs is diminishing by specialized roles. So what's a savvy fantasy owner to do? Simple. Just bow your head in a moment of reflection and take solace in the fact that while you know 2SRBDS is dead, others don't, and you'll have an advantage because of it. Then, go draft a stud wide receiver in the second round."

The entire link is a must read - http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football...thof2rbstrategy

Once we begin to see articles from ESPN stating that the idea of drafting RB/RB in first two rounds is `dead`, it can only mean one thingRAFT RB/RB !!!!!!!

last year was the season of the WR's, and, as defenses adjusted during the off-season,we're likely to see an increase in rush yards because defenses are more geared towards stopping the pass now..

then, next year, once defenses see that teams ran a lot in 2008, they'll converge on the running game, and WR's stats will go thru the roof..

typical ebb and flow of the NFL...

and once a major sports entity like ESPN proclaims the idea that drafting RB/RB is 'dead', you can bet your bottom dollar RB's will be the story of the 2008 season...

exactly!!!!!!hey, not only that, but if you can get a back thatwill carry the load in both the 1st and 2nd round why wouldn't you. that fact that there are so many RBBC teams means there are less teams that only have 1 rb carying the load. I am not saying to draft, bush in the second over a WR,

you could go RB WR, RB but i would rather take a QB over the WR this year. ok so a top WR is fitzgerald. what is the difference between him and say a WR you could get in the 4th round vs romo or brees in teh 2nd and the qb you could get in teh 4th or 5th round.

 

[packersfan]

- Overvalue QBs. For years, I waited and waited and waited on QBs. I'm now the opposite. With so many RB time shares, and so much information out there, it is much easier to find RB gems and waiver wire WRs who can be plugged in. The advantage that a 30+TD QB gives you can not be underestimated, especially in highly competitive leagues where people pay attention.

I'm in strong agreement with this. I know many, including Dodds in his Perfect Draft article, say that chasing after a top QB early is not the way to go but I disagree. I think there is a dramatic drop-off after the top four QBs (Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees) and I think the guaranteed production those QBs can give you is well worth the early round investment. I've been a proponent of taking a top QB earlier in the drafts for the past couple of years. I couldn't do that last year in my top league because the QBs flew off the board. I waited and took the combo of Cutler and Schaub and got destroyed there last season. Given how few strong QBs I believe there to be this year that has me even more inclined to take a top one (likely in the third round) if there's one on the board when I'm picking.I think this directly relates to what you choose to do in the first two rounds. If you're in a PPR league, for example, and you're targeting a top QB in the third round, you may be more inclined to have a top WR in one of the first two rounds. So that may prevent RB-RB from being an option.

 

[wraith5]

I'd love for Chase to take a run at the "statistics" cited in the article, because just below the surface they appear flawed (at best). What was the sample size in each round for RBs and WRs? Were the averages significantly adjusted based on one or two outliers? Was this based on PPR, or non-PPR?

In general, there are four things you need to consider BEFORE deciding RB-RB or RB-WR or DEF-K for that matter.

1) Projections. Everything starts and ends with current and "accurate" projections. You don't have this, you are done before week 1.

2) League scoring system. Simple math here, but it's critical to realize what a player scores in one league can be significantly different in another (i.e. PPR)

3) Required Starters. Start 2RB & 3WR will give different priority than start 2 RB, 3WR and RB/WR flex. I'm in one league that's 2RB, 2WR and 2 RB/WR. Some leagues require a TE, some flex it with a WR... bottom line is that starter requirements define how quickly position players will come off the board.

4) Average Draft Position. Based on your scoring, your starter requirements, and owner tendencies you can guestimate when players will move off the boards. Then you can plan your strategy to maximize your teams strength.

These represent the core of strategy, IMO. Everything else is false bravado or ignorance.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

This isn't rocket science, and I'm sure we all have different strategies that have been both successful and unsuccessful throughout the years. A couple of ideas that I employ when drafting, a couple of which have been mentioned, that I think are especially important:

- More important to avoid busts in early rounds than to draft "steals". For me, that means I likely won't get Calvin Johnson this year, though I agree that he'll probably finish top 10.

- Give a little extra weight to drafting a different position in round 2 than you took in round 1. I'm not saying you should pass on Marshawn Lynch late in the 2nd if you took Peterson in the first. I'm saying that if you have two guys with equal grades/value in round 2, a tiebreaker is taking the position you didn't take in the 1st. This allows you much greater flexibility in rounds 3-5 to add value where ever it falls, instead of feeling forced to fill the position you didn't take in rounds 1 & 2. Nothing worse than going RB-RB, only to see a great RB value fall to you in round 3.

- Overvalue QBs. For years, I waited and waited and waited on QBs. I'm now the opposite. With so many RB time shares, and so much information out there, it is much easier to find RB gems and waiver wire WRs who can be plugged in. The advantage that a 30+TD QB gives you can not be underestimated, especially in highly competitive leagues where people pay attention.

- Give added value to "healthy" players. By far the most random and biggest factor in fantasy success or failure is injury. While no one can predict injury, it's also not hard to look at career data and determine players who are less likely to miss time than others. On a macro level, that means bumping the value of iron man QBs and most WRs in early rounds.

- Avoid 2nd round RBs. Again, if Marshawn Lynch or Stephen Jackson is somehow available in round 2, I'm not advocating they be passed over. I'm talking about RBs with 2nd round ADPs. Obviously a couple of 2nd round RBs will pay dividends, but in my opinion, nothing is more risky or dangerous than 2nd round RBs. It seems that half of them end up being busts, or provide only decent return on their investments, when far better and safer bets on WRs or QBs are available. Sure this means that you'll be hunting RBs in rounds 4-6, but there are always bargains to be found there as well, and with far less risk.

My 2 cents...

Wow. This sums up my draft strategy beautifully. Terrific stuff here, and I'm glad you're not in my league.

 

[xenith]

It would've been noteworthy to see this article come out the year *before* a bunch of frontline RBs underperformed their ADP due to injury (SJax, LJ, Rudi) or underperformance (Travis Henry, Maroney, Parker), while a bunch of WRs went nuts, and in general passing outpaced rushing across the league.

Being ahead of the curve on those developments would've been pretty impressive.

But writing this article the year *after* all of these things happened is far more reactive than proactive.

WRs are flying off of the boards in the first few rounds at unprecedented rates, while RBs are sliding. Is that a sign of things to come, or an overreaction to the 2007 season? Only time will tell. For now, my money's on the latter.

Totally agree! If you're in a position to grab a solid RB2 in early round 2, take him. Later in round2, hard to justify it. I'm sitting 11th in 12 team PPR redraft, and if Lynch/LJ, maybe even Grant, falls to 14 for my 2nd, I'm takin em, otherwise best WR is better value.

Last year I went RB/RB/RB, and while all 3 didn't pan out, I had an awesome WR group, not taking WR1 until 4th round. If not for an injury in the semi's, would have been in the championship and won. Point is, any strategy will work if you build an overall deep roster with value picks mid/late in the draft.

 

[Gr00vus]

People tend to put players at a given position into tiers. This approach should be taken overall as well - once you have your projections and an overall draft ranking you then identify tiers within your overall draft ranking. You may use VBD numbers, something similar, your gut, whatever. The idea being that your tiers should give you a clear picture of the bucket of players you'll consider for your next pick, regardless of position played.

Then when your pick rolls around it should be pretty obvious who you'll be taking. It's a nice, quick sanity check. Now if I'm in one of the first three or four rounds and my highest tier with available players remaining includes an RB or two I'll probably take the RB before someone else in the tier at another position. I've never taken 4 RB in the first 4 rounds before, as the value just wasn't there, but I often will take 3. What the tiers do is keep me from reaching for an Earnest Graham in the 2nd just to get an RB2 while there's a Larry Fitzgerald waiting to be scooped up. It also keeps you in a flexible mind set that will allow you to obtain the best value at each given pick.

Now as the draft goes on this doesn't help so much as you will run into situations where you will need to shore up a position even though there are guys at other positions in a higher tier, but in the top half of the draft it works very nicely.

It also makes you think a bit more in depth about the value of different players in relation to players at other positions, which VBD helps abstract away to some extent. Tiering forces you to identify and confront what may be faulty projections in the case of guys you realize shouldn't be in the tier they're currently occupying.

As a final thought - stick with Dodds's ideas about waiting on QBs. There's always readily identifiable, great value to be had at that position later in the draft.

 

[RudeDog]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I've rarely deviated from the RB/RB strategy. Unless you play in a start 4 WR league, it just seems a lot easier to pickup WRs you plug in your lineup later in draft or off the WW; not the case with RBs.

I'm not agreeing with or debunking the RB/RB strategy, but I wrote an article a couple of years ago noting that starting NFL RBs will turn over from the start of the year to the end of the year by 40-50%.This shouldn't be all that surprising given the rate that players can get nicked up. IMO, this showed that you get get a decent fantasy worthy RB rounds and rounds late once the injuries started happening.The proble, of course, is not knowing which backups will end up as starters, and conversely, which starters will be plagued with injuries.So while you are right in assessing that there are only so many RBs to go around, there are actually more RBs to go around than one might think.

David makes the biggest case for handcuffing that one can make here.

 

[Britney Spears]

Must read from ESPN -

Here is the summation of the article: "The market for 2SRBDS is saturated; too many people are employing the strategy, even as the value of the second tier of running backs is diminishing by specialized roles. So what's a savvy fantasy owner to do? Simple. Just bow your head in a moment of reflection and take solace in the fact that while you know 2SRBDS is dead, others don't, and you'll have an advantage because of it. Then, go draft a stud wide receiver in the second round."

The entire link is a must read - http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football...thof2rbstrategy

Thankfully, I have not employed the RB/RB strategy since the pre-ought years. It usually makes sense to see these things coming before everyone else rather than waiting for the majority and then following suit. You can't be a perenial champion by following the crowd.

I hear ya man. Good to see another forward thinker exists on this board. The tide has been turning and the writing has been on the wall for some time now that RB/RB is dead. The true sharks like me and Rhythmdoctor were wise enough to see the shift before all of the guppies and reaped the benefits. Last year I drafted LT2 1.01 in one of my 9 leagues and then took Brady with the 2.14 and Moss with the 3.01. Needless to say I celebrated my 15 fantasy superbowl victory because of my ability to see out side of the RB/RB box.It takes that special type person to be able to use his intelligence and see the big picture in order to make shark moves.

I am sure as the hype goes around RB/QB for a few years, it will be the innovators like me and Rhythmdoctor that will be ahead of the curve with a new drafting startegy that will earn us more fantasy championships. It is not easy being so far ahead of the curve. But in the name and honor of being a Shark I must press on.

Holy poop, is this for real? LOLLOLLOL

 

[GregR_2]

I think there's sort of a path of learning when it comes to FF players and draft strategy. Some people skip steps, and some never progress forward. They are something like this:

1. You don't know anything about draft strategy. You take guys you have heard of before, or your favorite players, or the guys who scored the most points last year (i.e. Best Player Available)

2. You notice that people who draft RBs early tend to do well. Or you notice that you are always hurting at RB and decide to draft them earlier. Or, someone explains the Stud RB Theory to you and you adopt it.

3. You realize the Stud RB Theory stops being the right strategy at some point in every draft. Rather than stick to a Theory without understanding it, the person starts to understand how to explicitly determine the value across positions rather than doing it unconsciously. This is where something like VBD comes in.

4. The owner starts to realize VBD paints an incomplete picture of value. Not only does the makeup of the pool of players create value in a draft (which VBD shows), but the way in which teams deplete those players matters a lot too. They start to incorporate things like Dynamic VBD which pays attention to the drop off at positions between this pick and the next (which is what the Best Value option in Draft Dominator does). They start to realize from this that Stud RB Theory is self-reinforcing... the more that people are picking any one position, the more correct going along with the crowd becomes.

5. Finally the owner realizes just how hairy a beast draft strategy is to get right. Every pick has major consequences on later picks, and the only way to make informed decisions is to have mock drafted and faced those decisions enough that their true implications based on this year's pool of players is known. They start figuring out how to work their draft so that each time their pick shows up, the best value players available are at positions of need that fit into their overall strategy. They are flexible enough that if things don't go as expected, they already are aware of the implications of changing and so can make a good decision on what way to proceed forward. In effect, they do the same as Dodds does in creating his Perfect Draft articles, but in more detail tailored to their league.

Ok, so what does that have to do with the article? Basically, the author seems to me to be addressing people who are at the level of #2 but don't understand more than that. If they understood more, they wouldn't just be drafting by the Stud RB Theory... they would be coming up with a draft strategy that is Stud RB-like when appropriate, and not when it isn't. They wouldn't need someone going into detail about a rule of thumb because they would have already rejected it and been dealing directly with the real factors involved.

So I'm sort of very "eh" about the article. Rather than convince someone that their rule of thumb is more or less applicable this year than in past, better to show them how to deal with the real factors and discard the rule of thumb.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The best strategy is fantasy football is to avoid drafting busts. Go with your gut instincts. If your preferred choices for RB/RB are not available when it's your turn to pick, then go best player available. If you don't like Ryan Grant, McGahee or Bush then by all means don't pick them. There are still good great RB choices in round 4 and later this year. My preferred strategy in most drafts this year has been to go RB/WR/WR/RB/RB.

I can not agree much more with what you are saying. I think what people tend to forget is the likelihood of the player that you are drafting will actually put up the projections given to him (however they were come upon). In my longtime league I have drafted two runningback high in most years. The problem is that I have not had a productive tandum since the mid 90's when I had Curtis Martin and Ricky Waters on my team. I have drafted bust after bust at runningback over the years and I have made sound selections most of the time. I will give my example of why drafting runningbacks high is often times a mistake. I drafted both Steven Jackson and Laurence Maroney last year and it was common knowledge that I had one of the best runningback tandoms in the league. There would not have been many that would have disagreed. I have had similar bad luck for many years now. It was a good thing that Portis slipped last year and I had Justin Fargas helping out. I had a makeshift backfield for most of the year. In the meantime I was a bit weaker at receiver and quarterback for picking runningbacks early. Runningbacks may be hard to come by but dependability at the position is just as hard to come by. Jackson and Maroney were the final straws that broke the camels back. Unless things change drastically I will draft just as I did this year. I went Romo, Wayne, Andre Johnson and Holt in the first 4 rounds. None have a real high liklihood to bust especially where they were drafted. I am most likely going to be able to rely on 3 of the 4 to post good numbers. Meanwhile my runningbacks will be no worse for the wear then they have been any other year. At least now I will have the quarterbacks and receivers to be able to carry a heavier load. I still ended up with Graham, S Young, K. Smith, D Williams, C. Johnson and M Morris.

From both of you

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I will give my example of why drafting runningbacks high is often times a mistake. I drafted both Steven Jackson and Laurence Maroney last year and it was common knowledge that I had one of the best runningback tandoms in the league. There would not have been many that would have disagreed. I have had similar bad luck for many years now. It was a good thing that Portis slipped last year and I had Justin Fargas helping out. I had a makeshift backfield for most of the year. In the meantime I was a bit weaker at receiver and quarterback for picking runningbacks early.

I drafted Parker/Henry and thought it was gold. I'm rethinking everything this year. And that from a guy who wasn't a lock step stud RB theory guy to begin with.

 

[ceisenhower66]

The two drafts I have completed so far this year have been unlike any I have seen in the past (very WR and QB heavy in the first 4 rounds). Both are 12 team PPR leagues. One starts QB, RB, WR, R/W, R/W, TE, K, and D. The other starts QB, RB, WR, WR, R/W, TE, K, and D. In the first draft, more QBs and WRs (13) combined went off the board in the first two rounds than RB (11). Here's what I ended up with (round in parenthesis for the main guys):

1st draft (#7 pick):

QB - McNabb (5), Young

RB - Addai (1), L. Johnson (2), Turner (4), F. Taylor (9)

WR - Holt (3), Ward (6), Bruce, S. Moss (8)

TE - Shockey (7)

D - Steelers and Giants

K - Scobee

At first, I wasn't really sure how I felt about this team, but I like it better now than when I drafted it. With LJ sitting there at #18, how could I not go RB/RB?? My biggest complaint is that I got a lot of old guys who might be susceptible to injury. I think I got fantastic value with all of my first 9 picks except for maybe McNabb. I will probably be starting 3 RBs assuming Turner pans out. Like I said, WR flew off the board so I took 3 stud RBs (hopefully) and I can start all of them.

2nd draft (#6 pick):

QB - McNabb (5), Campbell

RB - Gore (1), McGahee (3), Kevin Smith (7), R. Rice, Slaton

WR - Fitzgerald (2), Coles (6), Crayton, Hester, D. Bennett

TE - Winslow (4), LJ Smith

D - New England (8)

K - Vinatieri

This draft was a lot harder than the first. I wanted to employ a strategy of taking the best player available when I couldn't decide on a middling WR or RB. As a result, based on my VBD sheets, I got a top 6 QB, a top 6 RB, a top 15 RB, a top 25 RB, a top 3 WR, a top 2 TE, a top 3 D, and a top 3 K. I don't like this team that much, but getting a top talent at each position and then taking flyers later on guys like Crayton, Hester, Bennett, Rice, and Slaton worked out OK if they live up to the projections. Only problem is that with the McGahee injury, I don't know who I will start in week 1 at my flex position.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

It would've been noteworthy to see this article come out the year *before* a bunch of frontline RBs underperformed their ADP due to injury (SJax, LJ, Rudi) or underperformance (Travis Henry, Maroney, Parker), while a bunch of WRs went nuts, and in general passing outpaced rushing across the league.Being ahead of the curve on those developments would've been pretty impressive.But writing this article the year *after* all of these things happened is far more reactive than proactive.WRs are flying off of the boards in the first few rounds at unprecedented rates, while RBs are sliding. Is that a sign of things to come, or an overreaction to the 2007 season? Only time will tell. For now, my money's on the latter.

very

 

[ceisenhower66]

I will give my example of why drafting runningbacks high is often times a mistake. I drafted both Steven Jackson and Laurence Maroney last year and it was common knowledge that I had one of the best runningback tandoms in the league. There would not have been many that would have disagreed. I have had similar bad luck for many years now. It was a good thing that Portis slipped last year and I had Justin Fargas helping out. I had a makeshift backfield for most of the year. In the meantime I was a bit weaker at receiver and quarterback for picking runningbacks early.

I drafted Parker/Henry and thought it was gold. I'm rethinking everything this year. And that from a guy who wasn't a lock step stud RB theory guy to begin with.

Wow, I did this in two leagues last year too. Boy did that backfire. To add insult to injury, in one of the leagues, I took Javon Walker and Roy Williams with my next two picks. Ouch.

 

[Buffett323]

If you are drafting 12th in a 12 team league, Brady, Manning, and Moss are off the board. You've got Portis, L Johnson, MJD, and TO to choose from, which 2 do you take?? You've GOT to go RB RB at that point... don't you??

PS:

Moss - will be good, but not as good as last year

TO - should do about the same as last year

Wayne - with Harrison back his numbers will be down

Fitz - Leinart is unproven, if he fails miserably they can go with Warner, but I'm thinking down a bit

Housh - been injured most of pre-season, I wouldn't call him a lock

CJ - seperated shoulder is healing faster than expected, should be ok, but not a lock

Holt - gettin' pretty old

Smith - suspended first 2 games, no way is he worth a 1st or 2nd round pick

Boldin - wants to be traded, will that effect his performance... maybe

Plax - ankle is still bothering him, not a lock

And I can probably comfortably add based on targets, team role, team offense, and year-to-year progression:

Colston - injured last year, will he hold up this year

Edwards - cut his foot, not a big deal, Anderson has concussion, could be huge deal

Holmes - Have you seen their schedule???????

There is no such thing as a lock and these WR's aren't any more reliable than L Johnson (line questions and coming off an injury), MJD (F Taylor is Healthy... at least for a while), J Lewis (old), E Graham (It's TB for cryin out loud) et al who will also be available in the second round

BTW, I took Portis and L Johnson and got Colston in the 3rd, could be outstanding, could be a disaster, time will tell. No matter how much time you put into FF, there will ALWAYS be a lot of luck involved too

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I will give my example of why drafting runningbacks high is often times a mistake. I drafted both Steven Jackson and Laurence Maroney last year and it was common knowledge that I had one of the best runningback tandoms in the league. There would not have been many that would have disagreed. I have had similar bad luck for many years now. It was a good thing that Portis slipped last year and I had Justin Fargas helping out. I had a makeshift backfield for most of the year. In the meantime I was a bit weaker at receiver and quarterback for picking runningbacks early.

I drafted Parker/Henry and thought it was gold. I'm rethinking everything this year. And that from a guy who wasn't a lock step stud RB theory guy to begin with.

Wow, I did this in two leagues last year too. Boy did that backfire. To add insult to injury, in one of the leagues, I took Javon Walker and Roy Williams with my next two picks. Ouch.

LOLI took Roy too. I at least got TO instead of Javon, but it didn't really matter. Disaster does not begin to describe it.

 

[Nod Noslrac]

Here's my 2 cents.

Don't ever draft RB/RB because someone tells you to. Don't ever draft RB/WR because some article tells you to. Read these articles and use your common sense. I think many are jumping on the "no RB/RB" theory because last year it blew up in many of our faces (One league I drafted Alexander, Benson, and A. Green in the first 4 rounds, ouch).

If I can get any of the my top 11 rated RB's this year in the first two rounds, I will probably go RB/RB (probably). But I have to see how the draft is going, and take value where it presents itself. For instance, if I am drafting 2.6 and MJD (my #11 RB) is available, but Brady or Moss is available too ( I know, it's not going to happen, but I 'm just making a point), I may deviate from my original plan.

These draft theory articles are great, and I read all I can get, but every draft has a life of it's own. The articles are not gospel, but they give you ammunition during your draft.

So far I got Lynch and Portis in the first two rounds in my espn draft and got Addai and Brees in my CBS Sportsline draft, which gives QB's 6 points for a touchdown, and I never take a QB in the first 5 rounds except CBS.

Good luck drafting

 

[Bankerguy]

Isn't best player available always the way to go?

What do you mean by best player available?Right now I'm looking at a cheat sheet I used to draft with Saturday night. There is a group of players ranked 12-23 whose VBD values go from 118 to 106. It's made up of 6 WRs, 5 RBs and 1 QB. That's just a difference of 12 value points. In other words, less than 1 point per game. Given the way things break during the season, there is no such thing as "best player available" when it comes to those 12 players. At some point you have to have a strategy, bias or whatever you want to call it.

This is where Dynamic VBD is good. There are some good threads on it.

 

[dornado]

I guess my view is that it varies every year....

Back in the 90's guys like Steve Young and Jerry Rice were consistently picked in the top 5-8 picks of my league... then as fantasy football got more mainstream the whole RB/RB thing seemed to dominate peoples thinking...

Its all about maximizing value at every pick to me... so the only way you can create a cogent draft strategy is to run down the possibilities mock-draft style so that you know generally who is going to be available to you and who won't... then plan accordingly.

I won a championship last year without taking my 2nd RB until the 6th round... it all depends on who you anticipate falling...

 

[Wu-banger]

With all the injury / performance / RBBC question marks plaging the RB's going into this season I think it could be more important than ever to grab RB/RB that are in solid positions..

One of the reasons that the whole RB/RB theroy had such success is because RB's are the safer and more consistent producers on a weekly basis historicly, where as WR's are more voilitle...grabbing two that will produce every week is key.

I think RB/RB could be executed best if drafted in the later part of the 1st ... Brady , Moss will probably be in the top 8 allowing a decent set of RB's to be availible after...

If in the 1st two picks you could grab any combo of (Gore , Lynch , LJ, Portis, Barber, Grant) you would be better suited to do so then grab WR/WR in the 3rd and 4th (AJ , Colston,Plax, Cincy Duo, Boldin, Det Duo )

Doing this would allow others to have to gamble on their RB2, while providing you with a nice solid nucleus.

Also , with the issues with a lot of the RB situations currently , good value could be had later to land a nice sleeper with upside at that position to fill RB3 (Forte , Kev Smith, Julius Jone Rudi/Perry)...

IMO...

 

[John Mamula]

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

 

[bolldpt]

My league is a keep 2 no PPR 10 team league. I was planning on keeping S Jax and ADP but I am also thinking this year on keeping TO instead of SJax. The decision of keeping SJax instead of TO cuts both ways this year.

With all the RBBC teams this year and the increased passing last year. I feel WR's may be of better value due to, what i feel as, a muddle of RBs in their RBBC that are of similar value from rounds 3-6. This would lend someone to take WR early and get value at RB. But as someone pointed out earlier in the thread, the need to get the stud RB early if you can is crucial.

 

[j3r3m3y]

The problem isn't taking two backs, or two wides, or a QB and one of the other ones. The problem is hitting. You hit, you win. You don't, you've got a long road to hoe.

I think another problem is getting it set into your mind that "I will draft a ___ and a ___" in the first two rounds.

 

[davearm]

The problem isn't taking two backs, or two wides, or a QB and one of the other ones. The problem is hitting. You hit, you win. You don't, you've got a long road to hoe.

I think another problem is getting it set into your mind that "I will draft a ___ and a ___" in the first two rounds.

It's not a problem if you've actually done your homework and thoroughly mocked a number of scenarios. If you've tried a number of strategies in mock drafts, and one consistently yields a roster you like better than the others, then I don't see the problem in formulating a hard-and-fast plan, provided the first portion of your real draft unfolds without any major surprises.

 

[j3r3m3y]

The problem isn't taking two backs, or two wides, or a QB and one of the other ones. The problem is hitting. You hit, you win. You don't, you've got a long road to hoe.

I think another problem is getting it set into your mind that "I will draft a ___ and a ___" in the first two rounds.

It's not a problem if you've actually done your homework and thoroughly mocked a number of scenarios. If you've tried a number of strategies in mock drafts, and one consistently yields a roster you like better than the others, then I don't see the problem in formulating a hard-and-fast plan, provided the first portion of your real draft unfolds without any major surprises.

That was pretty much my point. If you stay so locked to your "strategy" that you aren't willing to adapt at some anomaly, you are hurting yourself.

 

[Christo]

Isn't best player available always the way to go?

What do you mean by best player available?Right now I'm looking at a cheat sheet I used to draft with Saturday night. There is a group of players ranked 12-23 whose VBD values go from 118 to 106. It's made up of 6 WRs, 5 RBs and 1 QB. That's just a difference of 12 value points. In other words, less than 1 point per game. Given the way things break during the season, there is no such thing as "best player available" when it comes to those 12 players. At some point you have to have a strategy, bias or whatever you want to call it.

This is where Dynamic VBD is good. There are some good threads on it.

I know. But I'm not going to lug a laptop to a draft.

 

[GregR_2]

Isn't best player available always the way to go?

What do you mean by best player available?Right now I'm looking at a cheat sheet I used to draft with Saturday night. There is a group of players ranked 12-23 whose VBD values go from 118 to 106. It's made up of 6 WRs, 5 RBs and 1 QB. That's just a difference of 12 value points. In other words, less than 1 point per game. Given the way things break during the season, there is no such thing as "best player available" when it comes to those 12 players. At some point you have to have a strategy, bias or whatever you want to call it.

This is where Dynamic VBD is good. There are some good threads on it.

I know. But I'm not going to lug a laptop to a draft.

Why do you need a laptop to subtract one number from another? That's all the calculation you have to do for DVBD.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

And that may not even matter.

 

[Legion of Doom]

It depends on the scoring system and starting lineup requirements.

Yep and knowing how your league mates tend to draft!

 

[Christo]

Isn't best player available always the way to go?

What do you mean by best player available?Right now I'm looking at a cheat sheet I used to draft with Saturday night. There is a group of players ranked 12-23 whose VBD values go from 118 to 106. It's made up of 6 WRs, 5 RBs and 1 QB. That's just a difference of 12 value points. In other words, less than 1 point per game. Given the way things break during the season, there is no such thing as "best player available" when it comes to those 12 players. At some point you have to have a strategy, bias or whatever you want to call it.

This is where Dynamic VBD is good. There are some good threads on it.

I know. But I'm not going to lug a laptop to a draft.

Why do you need a laptop to subtract one number from another? That's all the calculation you have to do for DVBD.

Now you want me to do homework?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

It would've been noteworthy to see this article come out the year *before* a bunch of frontline RBs underperformed their ADP due to injury (SJax, LJ, Rudi) or underperformance (Travis Henry, Maroney, Parker), while a bunch of WRs went nuts, and in general passing outpaced rushing across the league.Being ahead of the curve on those developments would've been pretty impressive.But writing this article the year *after* all of these things happened is far more reactive than proactive.WRs are flying off of the boards in the first few rounds at unprecedented rates, while RBs are sliding. Is that a sign of things to come, or an overreaction to the 2007 season? Only time will tell. For now, my money's on the latter.

:(

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Isn't best player available always the way to go?

What do you mean by best player available?Right now I'm looking at a cheat sheet I used to draft with Saturday night. There is a group of players ranked 12-23 whose VBD values go from 118 to 106. It's made up of 6 WRs, 5 RBs and 1 QB. That's just a difference of 12 value points. In other words, less than 1 point per game. Given the way things break during the season, there is no such thing as "best player available" when it comes to those 12 players. At some point you have to have a strategy, bias or whatever you want to call it.

This is where Dynamic VBD is good. There are some good threads on it.

I know. But I'm not going to lug a laptop to a draft.

???why not. Draft Dominator roxor

 

[crazyleggs]

The problem isn't taking two backs, or two wides, or a QB and one of the other ones. The problem is hitting. You hit, you win. You don't, you've got a long road to hoe.

Last year in one league I got Steven Jackson, Steve Smith and Marvin Harrison with 1st 3 picks and was thrilled. Obviously I didn't "hit" on what seemd like locks. You just never know dammit.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

The problem isn't taking two backs, or two wides, or a QB and one of the other ones. The problem is hitting. You hit, you win. You don't, you've got a long road to hoe.

Last year in one league I got Steven Jackson, Steve Smith and Marvin Harrison with 1st 3 picks and was thrilled. Obviously I didn't "hit" on what seemd like locks. You just never know dammit.

I bet you were thrilled. Wow. And look what happened. Me, I had FWP, Travis Henry in Denver, and TO after 3 rounds. I was on cloud 9.*poof*

 

[faux_bear]

The problem isn't taking two backs, or two wides, or a QB and one of the other ones. The problem is hitting. You hit, you win. You don't, you've got a long road to hoe.

Last year in one league I got Steven Jackson, Steve Smith and Marvin Harrison with 1st 3 picks and was thrilled. Obviously I didn't "hit" on what seemd like locks. You just never know dammit.

I bet you were thrilled. Wow. And look what happened. Me, I had FWP, Travis Henry in Denver, and TO after 3 rounds. I was on cloud 9.*poof*

I just finished my draft where I was picking 10th in a 12 teamer. I was fortunate enough to have Randy Moss drop to me at 1.10 so I took him in round 1. In the next 4 picks, Lynch, LJ and MJD were taken, so I went with who I thought was the best value and snagged Reggie Wayne... in the 3rd round, RB's were flying off the board, including McFadden, Thomas Jones, Michael Turner, Maroney, Jamal Lewis, and Willie Parker. Oddly enough though, McGahee was still available, so I took him...anyway, I'll spare you the details, but for those interested in the WR-WR strategy, I will let you know how my draft went and you can decide if you like it or not. fyi, this is a PPR league starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX...1. Moss2. Wayne3. McGahee4. Romo5. Dwayne Bowe6. Deangelo Williams7. Jonathan Stewart8. Nate Burleson9. Chris Perry10. Vikings D11. Tony Scheffler12. Reggie Williams13. Zach Miller14. John Kitna15. Steve Slaton16. Laurent Robinson17. Chris Brown18. Kicker

 

[Christo]

Isn't best player available always the way to go?

What do you mean by best player available?Right now I'm looking at a cheat sheet I used to draft with Saturday night. There is a group of players ranked 12-23 whose VBD values go from 118 to 106. It's made up of 6 WRs, 5 RBs and 1 QB. That's just a difference of 12 value points. In other words, less than 1 point per game. Given the way things break during the season, there is no such thing as "best player available" when it comes to those 12 players. At some point you have to have a strategy, bias or whatever you want to call it.

This is where Dynamic VBD is good. There are some good threads on it.

I know. But I'm not going to lug a laptop to a draft.

???why not. Draft Dominator roxor

meh