Demaryius Thomas Value with Welker in Town (1 Viewer)

[Tibereas]

Got in a "discussion" with a league mate on the value of DT now that Welker has arrived in Big D. I'm not a huge fan of having to pay a premium for stud WR's that play with good veteran QB's. Brady, Manning and Rodgers are too good to lock into one recieving option. I think Welker takes some from DT and the one that benefits is Manning and Manning alone. Denver will employ a 3 WR set a good bit this season and it will be a crap shoot on which of the 3 solid WR's go off. He finished WR 6 in my league in 2012, I see a drop to WR 10-15 range for 2013.

Thoughts??

 

[Bamac]

I don't think DT loses much, if any, value because of Welker. Welker will get all of Stokley's targets, many/most of Dreesen and Tamme's, and some of Decker's. DT will still get his, and his TD numbers are sustainable. Maybe you can bump him down to WR 7-8, but 10-15 is too low in my opinion.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I don't think DT loses much, if any, value because of Welker. Welker will get all of Stokley's targets, many/most of Dreesen and Tamme's, and some of Decker's. DT will still get his, and his TD numbers are sustainable. Maybe you can bump him down to WR 7-8, but 10-15 is too low in my opinion.

this is how I see it as well, I'm knocking down DT a little but totally going to ignore Decker and Tamme is dropable

 

[HellToupee]

Got in a "discussion" with a league mate on the value of DT now that Welker has arrived in Big D. I'm not a huge fan of having to pay a premium for stud WR's that play with good veteran QB's. Brady, Manning and Rodgers are too good to lock into one recieving option. I think Welker takes some from DT and the one that benefits is Manning and Manning alone. Denver will employ a 3 WR set a good bit this season and it will be a crap shoot on which of the 3 solid WR's go off. He finished WR 6 in my league in 2012, I see a drop to WR 10-15 range for 2013.Thoughts??

No change for me. Two different cats competing for different balls.as an aside , big for the classic Fitchburg State puke pic

 

[EBF]

It may bump his numbers down slightly, but I think he'll be fine. He's too good to stay quiet. And Welker isn't exactly young either.

 

[SSOG]

Got in a "discussion" with a league mate on the value of DT now that Welker has arrived in Big D. I'm not a huge fan of having to pay a premium for stud WR's that play with good veteran QB's. Brady, Manning and Rodgers are too good to lock into one recieving option. I think Welker takes some from DT and the one that benefits is Manning and Manning alone. Denver will employ a 3 WR set a good bit this season and it will be a crap shoot on which of the 3 solid WR's go off. He finished WR 6 in my league in 2012, I see a drop to WR 10-15 range for 2013.Thoughts??

Reggie Wayne had five top-10 finishes with Manning (3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th). Marvin Harrison had 8 straight, including 7 top-5 finishes, with three of them (including a #1 overall) coming after Wayne's emergence. In 2004, Indy actually had three receivers finish as fantasy wr1s (Harrison at WR5, Wayne at WR8, and Stokley at WR11). And of course, Dallas Clark was a fantasy beast, too. Last year, Demaryius and Decker both finished 8th or better. None of these guys have ever suffered from playing with Manning, and all have managed to be studs while coexisting on the same field. I wouldn't view playing with Manning as much of a negative. Hell, I wouldn't view playing with Brady or Rodgers as a negative, either- they've both produced plenty of stud WR seasons despite sharing the ball. I suppose you could argue that Drew Brees hurts his fantasy WRs, but I'd just argue that Drew Brees hasn't played with WRs as good as the other three guys. The saying is that a rising tide lifts all ships, and I think it'll apply next year in Denver. I'd expect Decker's numbers to come back to earth (I think his TD totals regress), but otherwise, I think all three receivers can coexist and remain fantasy relevant. I wouldn't expect top5 numbers out of Demaryius, but I'd feel comfortable taking him off the board in the 6-10 range.

 

[Sinrman]

Maybe slightly. He's more of the deep threat. If anything, it will affect Dreesen and Decker's stats. Only so many balls around the middle to be had.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Only so many balls around the middle to be had.

153 catches for the RBs and TEs last year. +45 more to Stokely.And 275 targets to Stokely + TEs + RBs.

 

[jurb26]

I wouldn't worry about Thomas at all. He'll, I wouldn't worry about Decker either. Walker will be a complimentary player to them and this offense, not a focus. He should make the offense as a whole slinky better but I don't see Welker as having a significant fantasy impact for himself.

 

[ExaltedOne]

He'll be fine. If anything he helps because it'll take some coverage looks away from him.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I wouldn't worry about Thomas at all. He'll, I wouldn't worry about Decker either. Walker will be a complimentary player to them and this offense, not a focus. He should make the offense as a whole slinky better but I don't see Welker as having a significant fantasy impact for himself.

Seriously? Doesn't Manning love throwing to slot guys?

 

[dickey moe]

I think it will end up hurting Decker more than Thomas, but we'll see.

 

[jurb26]

I wouldn't worry about Thomas at all. He'll, I wouldn't worry about Decker either. Walker will be a complimentary player to them and this offense, not a focus. He should make the offense as a whole slinky better but I don't see Welker as having a significant fantasy impact for himself.

Seriously? Doesn't Manning love throwing to slot guys?

I'd say Manning loves throwing to the open guy and best option. Thomas and Decker are significantly better players than Welker at this point of their careers. I'd envision them being the best option far more than him.

 

[Phenix]

Thomas is a stud, studs get theirs. Problem is people over think it. Thomas does not line up at the same position, Thomas is still taller, so Red zone is still his thing, he is still the deep threat.

Whats not to like, some guy is telling me Nicks is just a tick behind Thomas. lol Thoams is a Top 5 WR in redraft and Dyno.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I wouldn't worry about Thomas at all. He'll, I wouldn't worry about Decker either. Walker will be a complimentary player to them and this offense, not a focus. He should make the offense as a whole slinky better but I don't see Welker as having a significant fantasy impact for himself.

Seriously? Doesn't Manning love throwing to slot guys?

I'd say Manning loves throwing to the open guy and best option. Thomas and Decker are significantly better players than Welker at this point of their careers. I'd envision them being the best option far more than him.

So...Welker, who has one of the fastest first steps off the line in the league, and is among the best at quickly gaining separation in the first five yards...has less chance of being open and the "best option" from the slot, than Decker and DT against outside CB's?Thomas and Decker will get theirs. Especially Thomas, who brings an entirely different dynamic to the offense and runs different routes entirely. He fulfills a different role and shouldn't be effected much.

But to say that Welker won't often be the "best option", considering his skill-set is perfectly geared towards being exactly that on short routes from the slot, seems crazy.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I wouldn't worry about Thomas at all. He'll, I wouldn't worry about Decker either. Walker will be a complimentary player to them and this offense, not a focus. He should make the offense as a whole slinky better but I don't see Welker as having a significant fantasy impact for himself.

Seriously? Doesn't Manning love throwing to slot guys?

I'd say Manning loves throwing to the open guy and best option. Thomas and Decker are significantly better players than Welker at this point of their careers. I'd envision them being the best option far more than him.

So...Welker, who has one of the fastest first steps off the line in the league, and is among the best at quickly gaining separation in the first five yards...has less chance of being open and the "best option" from the slot, than Decker and DT against outside CB's?

That doesn't mean they get more yards per play when targeting him as opposed to the other options.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

jurb just thinks Welker has dropped off more than most of us do, which is fine.

One thing that does scare me about Welker is that a little guy who relies so much on quickness might decline very rapidly.

 

[Drop]

I wonder how much of the stuff they did in NE for Welker they will do in DEN for him, probably not as much and there is no guaranteed Brady-like rapport and trust. There is also the scary notion that BayBayTron is still improving at a very fast rate considering how his usage in college and early NFL career have gone. I don't think he has learned everything he can from Peyton with just one year of experience, so as good as he is now he still has unlocked potential left in him.

 

[eaglesfan7]

He'll be fine. If anything he helps because it'll take some coverage looks away from him.

This. Welker's presence should help take some coverage away from DT once Welker gets in the swing of things. If anything, I can see DT's touchdowns increasing with less attention going his way. A stud is a stud.

 

[SSOG]

I wonder how much of the stuff they did in NE for Welker they will do in DEN for him, probably not as much and there is no guaranteed Brady-like rapport and trust. There is also the scary notion that BayBayTron is still improving at a very fast rate considering how his usage in college and early NFL career have gone. I don't think he has learned everything he can from Peyton with just one year of experience, so as good as he is now he still has unlocked potential left in him.

Manning's offense uses his slot receiver differently than New England's. Manning's slot WRs tend to operate much more vertically than Welker did in New England, attacking the seams up the middle. I would expect Denver to do the smart thing and crib a bit from New England's play book a bit to make Welker feel at home. I would also expect Welker to thrive in the more traditional slot role in Denver, too- it should be a very good match for his skills.I do think establishing a rapport will be important, but I suspect Manning will have an easier time of it with Welker, who is a long-time vet, than he did with Decker and Demaryius last year. All in all, I think Welker is a really good fit for the offense, and I think the entire offense will be better with his addition.

 

[cstu]

Got in a "discussion" with a league mate on the value of DT now that Welker has arrived in Big D. I'm not a huge fan of having to pay a premium for stud WR's that play with good veteran QB's. Brady, Manning and Rodgers are too good to lock into one recieving option. I think Welker takes some from DT and the one that benefits is Manning and Manning alone. Denver will employ a 3 WR set a good bit this season and it will be a crap shoot on which of the 3 solid WR's go off. He finished WR 6 in my league in 2012, I see a drop to WR 10-15 range for 2013.

Thoughts??

So you're thinking his numbers will go down yet you're trading for him...gotcha.

 

[Drop]

I wonder how much of the stuff they did in NE for Welker they will do in DEN for him, probably not as much and there is no guaranteed Brady-like rapport and trust. There is also the scary notion that BayBayTron is still improving at a very fast rate considering how his usage in college and early NFL career have gone. I don't think he has learned everything he can from Peyton with just one year of experience, so as good as he is now he still has unlocked potential left in him.

Manning's offense uses his slot receiver differently than New England's. Manning's slot WRs tend to operate much more vertically than Welker did in New England, attacking the seams up the middle. I would expect Denver to do the smart thing and crib a bit from New England's play book a bit to make Welker feel at home. I would also expect Welker to thrive in the more traditional slot role in Denver, too- it should be a very good match for his skills.I do think establishing a rapport will be important, but I suspect Manning will have an easier time of it with Welker, who is a long-time vet, than he did with Decker and Demaryius last year. All in all, I think Welker is a really good fit for the offense, and I think the entire offense will be better with his addition.

I don't think Welker is as much of a threat vertically, he seems to get his best separation horizontally with shakes moves, in and out option type stuff. I don't think he has the height, vertical jump, or speed to excel vertically from the slot. Maybe I'm wrong, but I picture a lot of his prolific value coming from being able to get open quickly in the short distance passing game and having the hands to catch bullets thrown at him. I don't really think he's best suited to run a skinny post from the slot against man coverage. In NE it seemed like he was used on a lot of rub routes and some delay trickery type stuff in the redzone and I'm just not sure if DEN is going to develop that stuff for him like NE did. Like I said I could be wrong and he certainly is a good enough player to adapt to a different system, but I don't believe he'll be as potent because of how embedded his role was in Tom Brady's progressions. Wes is an unorthodox player and he was a major piece in a finely tuned offense with a QB that showed favoritism towards him, there are a lot of potential obstacles looming with such big changes for him. I don't see his transition being as clear cut of an apples to apples projection as others I guess because the offensive philosophies are different. Wes is 5'9'' and isn't a burner. He's 31 so the athleticism is going to decline sooner rather than later. What he had with Brady was special and I don't know if it will be as easily replicated. There will even be an adjustment period for Peyton getting use to throwing the ball to such a small guy I think. I remember hearing Peyton comment on how nice it is to throw the ball to such big WRs in DEN. I don't remember the exact quote, but it certainly makes things easier on him and I kinda feel like he's smart enough to rely on that with comfort. Nobody wants to talk about Peyton's decline, but it's a real thing and he's masking it with his intelligence. Part of that surely manifests itself in utilizing big targets to widen his margin for error. So I think the logical conclusion is that they will continue to develop BayBay much more as a gamebreaker as apposed to retooling everything to maximally accommodate an aging smurf who they aren't use to playing with. The Peyton Manning to Demaryius Thomas connection has clear cut greatness written all over it. BayBay is an absolute beast and he's still getting better. Sure Welker adds a nice dimension because he's shifty and has good hands, but I believe the offense will be better more so because BayBay is going to be improved and he's already on a different level in terms of strategic influence on the competition. With or without Welker the Broncos are best off getting the ball to BayBay as much as possible and they know it. There is a subtle difference I've noticed amongst the way super big and fast WRs hurt defenses, and Peyton Manning's ability to hit WRs in stride deep is superior to just throwing up jump balls like lesser QBs do when targeting freak WRs downfield. I also don't think that many people are hip to the fact that Denver predicates their offensive pressure on BayBay in the screen game, so the quick throws that people think will go to Wes Welker are going to go to BayBay because of how deadly he is and how important it is to get him involved in the screen game so DBs come up on him. They do this because it has an effect on the double coverage he sees and Peyton really exploits that DB/Safety coverage look because even with safety help over the top he can hit Demaryius in stride, the screen game helps Demaryius burn the CB faster because of the lack of cushion due to screen game defensive responsibilities. It effectively turns double coverage into single coverage in terms of who can make a play on the ball and given BayBay's frame and speed he effectively turns that single coverage into him being open threatening deep quickly, and he's not going to be easy to tackle because he's not going up for a jumpball he's still separating as he catches it. (Those jumpballs throws have gotten BayBay hurt in the past by the way.) The strategy coupled with the precision is world class, because both Thomas and Manning have talents that change the games within the game and combined it is exponentially effective.

 

[CalBear]

Got in a "discussion" with a league mate on the value of DT now that Welker has arrived in Big D. I'm not a huge fan of having to pay a premium for stud WR's that play with good veteran QB's. Brady, Manning and Rodgers are too good to lock into one recieving option. I think Welker takes some from DT and the one that benefits is Manning and Manning alone. Denver will employ a 3 WR set a good bit this season and it will be a crap shoot on which of the 3 solid WR's go off. He finished WR 6 in my league in 2012, I see a drop to WR 10-15 range for 2013.

Thoughts??

I think 98/1493/23 is the absolute ceiling for Thomas with an elite QB and Welker in town.

 

[Tanner9919]

Got in a "discussion" with a league mate on the value of DT now that Welker has arrived in Big D. I'm not a huge fan of having to pay a premium for stud WR's that play with good veteran QB's. Brady, Manning and Rodgers are too good to lock into one recieving option. I think Welker takes some from DT and the one that benefits is Manning and Manning alone. Denver will employ a 3 WR set a good bit this season and it will be a crap shoot on which of the 3 solid WR's go off. He finished WR 6 in my league in 2012, I see a drop to WR 10-15 range for 2013.Thoughts??

Reggie Wayne had five top-10 finishes with Manning (3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th). Marvin Harrison had 8 straight, including 7 top-5 finishes, with three of them (including a #1 overall) coming after Wayne's emergence. In 2004, Indy actually had three receivers finish as fantasy wr1s (Harrison at WR5, Wayne at WR8, and Stokley at WR11). And of course, Dallas Clark was a fantasy beast, too. Last year, Demaryius and Decker both finished 8th or better. None of these guys have ever suffered from playing with Manning, and all have managed to be studs while coexisting on the same field. I wouldn't view playing with Manning as much of a negative. Hell, I wouldn't view playing with Brady or Rodgers as a negative, either- they've both produced plenty of stud WR seasons despite sharing the ball. I suppose you could argue that Drew Brees hurts his fantasy WRs, but I'd just argue that Drew Brees hasn't played with WRs as good as the other three guys. The saying is that a rising tide lifts all ships, and I think it'll apply next year in Denver. I'd expect Decker's numbers to come back to earth (I think his TD totals regress), but otherwise, I think all three receivers can coexist and remain fantasy relevant. I wouldn't expect top5 numbers out of Demaryius, but I'd feel comfortable taking him off the board in the 6-10 range.

good post..I think they all will do MORE with less..even if it is fewer recs per person, they're more likely to see single coverage now,as teams roll defenders towards Welker..so each could see a slight dip in recs, but a plus in TD's and/or big plays because Welker's presence should create nightmare matchup problems for opposing defenses..

 

[Phenix]

Well, Harrison Wayne Stokley? How did those 3 do when Manning had 3 good WRs?

Then it was Wayne Clark Collie, they performed again, its the Manning way. 3 WRs are always what he likes, yes I know Clark was a TE, they all still get about 10 TDs a piece and some get over 100 receptions.

The fantasy knee jerk, I love it. Buy baybay if people are selling him for less then a Top 5 WR.

Someone keeps offering me Lynch and Nicks for Morris and Thomas. For sure he keeps saying Thomas value is dropping lmfao.

 

[Boston]

The best year in Randy Moss's career happened with Welker catching 100+ balls...I don't see Thomas getting hurt by Welker being on-board...as for Welker it's seems to be an annual rite of passage to over-analyze him and find a reason to say his production will drop...granted it makes sense this year since he is with a new team but I see him having a typical Welker year of 100 receptions and becoming a Manning favorite very quickly...he showed zero signs of slowing down last year and I don't see why that will happen in 2013...

 

[Coeur de Lion]

There's more than enough room for Thomas, Decker, and Welker to all be just fine. Welker will get Stokely's 64 targets and a nice chunk of the 154 that Tamme and Dreesen combined for. The Broncos were only 10th in attempts last year, so that might see a slight bump in 2013 also.

Welker might not hit 120 catches like he did consistently in NE, but I think he'll approach 100, and I wouldn't be surprised if his TDs actually went up. Welker's talent continues to be massively under-rated around here -- his ability to create windows for a QB in a small, crowded area of the field is an outrageous advantage for an offense. Manning is going to effing LOVE him.

 

[SSOG]

I don't think Welker is as much of a threat vertically, he seems to get his best separation horizontally with shakes moves, in and out option type stuff. I don't think he has the height, vertical jump, or speed to excel vertically from the slot. Maybe I'm wrong, but I picture a lot of his prolific value coming from being able to get open quickly in the short distance passing game and having the hands to catch bullets thrown at him. I don't really think he's best suited to run a skinny post from the slot against man coverage.

Vertical doesn't mean 40 yards downfield, it means more in the 10-20 yard range (as opposed to the 0-10 yard range). Stokley absolutely wrecked in that role last year, which should tell you all you need to know given that Stokley was the oldest receiver in the league and that even in his youth was a 4.55 kind of guy. Welker is so explosive, so hard to slow at the line, and such a threat on the short stuff that those seams and hooks will be open all day for him. Both offenses use their slot receiver differently, but both are also probably the two slot-friendliest offenses in the league. Brandon Stokley has for a long time been arguably the second best slot receiver in the game, but he's been getting up there in years. It seemed a long shot that Denver would be able to get an upgrade, but then they landed perhaps the one guy who can do what Stokley does better than Stokley does. Welker doesn't have Stokley's hands, but he makes up for it by being virtually uncoverable in the middle. Denver's Chris Harris is one of the top inside CB in the league today, and Welker worked him silly in their matchup last year. I'm super-excited to see him in town next year. I'm sure the RBs are, too, because it's going to be a long time before they see a base defense again.

 

[Tibereas]

Got in a "discussion" with a league mate on the value of DT now that Welker has arrived in Big D. I'm not a huge fan of having to pay a premium for stud WR's that play with good veteran QB's. Brady, Manning and Rodgers are too good to lock into one recieving option. I think Welker takes some from DT and the one that benefits is Manning and Manning alone. Denver will employ a 3 WR set a good bit this season and it will be a crap shoot on which of the 3 solid WR's go off. He finished WR 6 in my league in 2012, I see a drop to WR 10-15 range for 2013.

Thoughts??

So you're thinking his numbers will go down yet you're trading for him...gotcha.

No, not trading for him as I would rather have a WR 1 that has a weaker QB or is the top option on his team. The owner wants Dez, Murray, 1.04, 2014 1st for DT and Alf and 1.05. Hes not worth it and would never pay that kind of price for him as he is not a top 5 IMO. Hope that clears things up for you..

 

[Two Deep]

I think Manning is going to wear Welker out. The reason I say this is Manning is losing his deep ball and will be looking more for the shorter routes in the middle of the field. Just my opinion, we will see.

 

[jurb26]

jurb just thinks Welker has dropped off more than most of us do, which is fine. One thing that does scare me about Welker is that a little guy who relies so much on quickness might decline very rapidly.

That's basically it. Manning will play favor to nobody so saying he loves to throw to the slot guy is misleading IMO. He loves the open guy, the best option for that play or coverage. That is why he is an all time great QB. I just don't think Welker will be that guy more often than either of the already highly talented and established WRs they have on the team. I think this move will help the real NFL team and offense more than it will fantasy, especially as it relates to Welker. He will still put up respectable numbers but I think it will be a strong down tick from what we've grown used to in his NE days.

 

[FF Ninja]

Thomas is a stud, studs get theirs. Problem is people over think it. Thomas does not line up at the same position, Thomas is still taller, so Red zone is still his thing, he is still the deep threat.

Whats not to like, some guy is telling me Nicks is just a tick behind Thomas. lol Thoams is a Top 5 WR in redraft and Dyno.

...or people don't think enough and make assumptions so they get caught off-guard, wondering why wasn't my stud a stud this year?!I'm not saying DT won't still be awesome next year, but there are a few things worth considering.

He saw a healthy 141 targets and caught 66.7% of them. That seems like a very good catch rate to me for a guy with a healthy 15.3 ypr. Should Welker eat away at those targets, maybe just 1-2 a game, and his catch rate drops to around 60% then you get something like 120 x 0.60 = 72 receptions. Seems crazy to go from 94 to 72, but is it really a stretch? Sure, they are totally different receivers, but that doesn't mean Denver doesn't design some plays for their new player or at least make him the #1 read on a few plays a game, which would in turn knock a target or two a game off of DT's totals.

And guys do see fluctuations in their rec/targ number. For instance, Andre Johnson saw 170 targets in 2008 and 171 in 2009, but his % was 67.6 one year and 59.1 % the next year. His ypr was 15.5 with the low rate and 13.7 with the high catch rate.

It's also worth noting that the "red zone is still his thing" means less than you think it does. He saw six red zone targets last year out of 88 pass attempts. Whoopee.

Conclusion:

Fantasy football (and football to some extent) is a probability game. Crazy swings in TD production happen every year and sometimes players see radical drop/gain in yards per touch without obvious cause (see Ray Rice, 2009 vs. 2010 despite same O-line). There is always a chance that Denver throws the ball 700 times or decides to force feed DT, but I'd say there is at least an 80% chance his production declines based simply on targets and catch rate. His 10 TDs are a lot of a Peyton offense, too. Harrison did it quite a bit, but Wayne was usually a single digit guy - even with 175 targets in 2010 he only got 6.

Unless something drastic happens, I'll probably use this prediction in the player spotlight:

130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.3 = 1240 yds 8 TD

 

[Bamac]

Thomas is a stud, studs get theirs. Problem is people over think it. Thomas does not line up at the same position, Thomas is still taller, so Red zone is still his thing, he is still the deep threat.

Whats not to like, some guy is telling me Nicks is just a tick behind Thomas. lol Thoams is a Top 5 WR in redraft and Dyno.

...or people don't think enough and make assumptions so they get caught off-guard, wondering why wasn't my stud a stud this year?!I'm not saying DT won't still be awesome next year, but there are a few things worth considering.

He saw a healthy 141 targets and caught 66.7% of them. That seems like a very good catch rate to me for a guy with a healthy 15.3 ypr. Should Welker eat away at those targets, maybe just 1-2 a game, and his catch rate drops to around 60% then you get something like 120 x 0.60 = 72 receptions. Seems crazy to go from 94 to 72, but is it really a stretch? Sure, they are totally different receivers, but that doesn't mean Denver doesn't design some plays for their new player or at least make him the #1 read on a few plays a game, which would in turn knock a target or two a game off of DT's totals.

And guys do see fluctuations in their rec/targ number. For instance, Andre Johnson saw 170 targets in 2008 and 171 in 2009, but his % was 67.6 one year and 59.1 % the next year. His ypr was 15.5 with the low rate and 13.7 with the high catch rate.

It's also worth noting that the "red zone is still his thing" means less than you think it does. He saw six red zone targets last year out of 88 pass attempts. Whoopee.

Conclusion:

Fantasy football (and football to some extent) is a probability game. Crazy swings in TD production happen every year and sometimes players see radical drop/gain in yards per touch without obvious cause (see Ray Rice, 2009 vs. 2010 despite same O-line). There is always a chance that Denver throws the ball 700 times or decides to force feed DT, but I'd say there is at least an 80% chance his production declines based simply on targets and catch rate. His 10 TDs are a lot of a Peyton offense, too. Harrison did it quite a bit, but Wayne was usually a single digit guy - even with 175 targets in 2010 he only got 6.

Unless something drastic happens, I'll probably use this prediction in the player spotlight:

130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.3 = 1240 yds 8 TD

This is solid analysis, but is your prediction any different because of Welker? Or is the predicted drop off solely because of the other factors?

 

[Phenix]

Thomas is a stud, studs get theirs. Problem is people over think it. Thomas does not line up at the same position, Thomas is still taller, so Red zone is still his thing, he is still the deep threat.

Whats not to like, some guy is telling me Nicks is just a tick behind Thomas. lol Thoams is a Top 5 WR in redraft and Dyno.

...or people don't think enough and make assumptions so they get caught off-guard, wondering why wasn't my stud a stud this year?!I'm not saying DT won't still be awesome next year, but there are a few things worth considering.

He saw a healthy 141 targets and caught 66.7% of them. That seems like a very good catch rate to me for a guy with a healthy 15.3 ypr. Should Welker eat away at those targets, maybe just 1-2 a game, and his catch rate drops to around 60% then you get something like 120 x 0.60 = 72 receptions. Seems crazy to go from 94 to 72, but is it really a stretch? Sure, they are totally different receivers, but that doesn't mean Denver doesn't design some plays for their new player or at least make him the #1 read on a few plays a game, which would in turn knock a target or two a game off of DT's totals.

And guys do see fluctuations in their rec/targ number. For instance, Andre Johnson saw 170 targets in 2008 and 171 in 2009, but his % was 67.6 one year and 59.1 % the next year. His ypr was 15.5 with the low rate and 13.7 with the high catch rate.

It's also worth noting that the "red zone is still his thing" means less than you think it does. He saw six red zone targets last year out of 88 pass attempts. Whoopee.

Conclusion:

Fantasy football (and football to some extent) is a probability game. Crazy swings in TD production happen every year and sometimes players see radical drop/gain in yards per touch without obvious cause (see Ray Rice, 2009 vs. 2010 despite same O-line). There is always a chance that Denver throws the ball 700 times or decides to force feed DT, but I'd say there is at least an 80% chance his production declines based simply on targets and catch rate. His 10 TDs are a lot of a Peyton offense, too. Harrison did it quite a bit, but Wayne was usually a single digit guy - even with 175 targets in 2010 he only got 6.

Unless something drastic happens, I'll probably use this prediction in the player spotlight:

130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.3 = 1240 yds 8 TD

You can do that math for anyone, whats your point?Thomas is still a stud, do another post all you like but your opinion does not change the fact that he is an elite WR with an elite QB who performs. His upside is still huge and he is young, we are talking dyno here. People love to over think it, like I said.

 

[FF Ninja]

This is solid analysis, but is your prediction any different because of Welker? Or is the predicted drop off solely because of the other factors?

Given how effective Thomas was, if things had stood pat, I'd have expected his targets to stay the same, if not see a bump up. With the addition of a target hog like Welker, I can't imagine DT seeing more targets in 2013. The decrease in catch rate and TDs I'd have expected with or without Welker. But from what I've seen, he appears to have really good hands, so I wouldn't be shocked if his catch rate increased next year with Welker drawing at least a little attention from coverage. But 67% is a really high number for the types of passes he is targeted on so I'd have a really hard time drafting him with the expectation of that rate continuing.We don't know how Welker's addition will affect his ADP next year, but I suspect plenty of people (or at least 1 out of the other 11 managers) will see 94/1442/10 and draft him using Phenix's logic. Thus, I think his price will be too high for me.I don't think I'll draft any WRs in this offense due to price. Decker might get cheaper due to Welker, but he only saw 122 targets last year and caught 69.7% of them and 13 TDs, so his value could still be slightly inflated while his usage w/Welker is impossible to predict. I'd be very interested in the running back, though! I hope they stick with Moreno. He's just unimpressive enough that I think people would let him slip while focusing on the WRs. If anyone new comes in at RB, people are going to cream themselves.

 

[FF Ninja]

You can do that math for anyone, whats your point?

Thomas is still a stud, do another post all you like but your opinion does not change the fact that he is an elite WR with an elite QB who performs. His upside is still huge and he is young, we are talking dyno here. People love to over think it, like I said.

If you missed the point then I'm afraid I'm going to have to hold you back a grade. I just don't have time to give every student extra attention when they fall behind.Plus, are we talking dyno here or are we talking about DT's value with Welker in town? It was just a two year contract so I was focusing on 2013. You missed my point and the subject of the thread... you're off to a hot start.

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

I envision, and hope, that Thomas has another big year, but to say that his numbers wont be effected by Welker is being too optimistic in my opinion. I imagine Welker is going to have at minimum 80 catches this year, now I know they dont play the same receiver position, but to think some of those receptions arent going to come at Thomas' expense is silly. How many passes do people think Manning is going to complete this year? 550:? 600?

 

[Phenix]

You can do that math for anyone, whats your point?

Thomas is still a stud, do another post all you like but your opinion does not change the fact that he is an elite WR with an elite QB who performs. His upside is still huge and he is young, we are talking dyno here. People love to over think it, like I said.

If you missed the point then I'm afraid I'm going to have to hold you back a grade. I just don't have time to give every student extra attention when they fall behind.Plus, are we talking dyno here or are we talking about DT's value with Welker in town? It was just a two year contract so I was focusing on 2013. You missed my point and the subject of the thread... you're off to a hot start.

Well since your educating me, the OP posted this thread because of me I have Thomas in the Dyno he speaks of, so yes... we are talking dyno. Oh, and Thomas happen to be on my team when I won the title last year in said league.So thanks for the education, I'm sure if I applied your logic I would not be a champ right now.

Educate me more please, so I can know what not to do to win titles.

 

[Phenix]

This is solid analysis, but is your prediction any different because of Welker? Or is the predicted drop off solely because of the other factors?

Given how effective Thomas was, if things had stood pat, I'd have expected his targets to stay the same, if not see a bump up. With the addition of a target hog like Welker, I can't imagine DT seeing more targets in 2013. The decrease in catch rate and TDs I'd have expected with or without Welker. But from what I've seen, he appears to have really good hands, so I wouldn't be shocked if his catch rate increased next year with Welker drawing at least a little attention from coverage. But 67% is a really high number for the types of passes he is targeted on so I'd have a really hard time drafting him with the expectation of that rate continuing.We don't know how Welker's addition will affect his ADP next year, but I suspect plenty of people (or at least 1 out of the other 11 managers) will see 94/1442/10 and draft him using Phenix's logic. Thus, I think his price will be too high for me.I don't think I'll draft any WRs in this offense due to price. Decker might get cheaper due to Welker, but he only saw 122 targets last year and caught 69.7% of them and 13 TDs, so his value could still be slightly inflated while his usage w/Welker is impossible to predict. I'd be very interested in the running back, though! I hope they stick with Moreno. He's just unimpressive enough that I think people would let him slip while focusing on the WRs. If anyone new comes in at RB, people are going to cream themselves.

So you do not want an elite WR with one of the best elite QBs on a pass first team?Do you realize how you sound right now, you sound like an obvious bias hater. Did he beat you in the SB last year or something?You know Harrison still caught 100 passes with Wayne and Clark on board. lol Your math is all assumption anyways.sorry Thomas beat you last year.

 

[SSOG]

I think Manning is going to wear Welker out. The reason I say this is Manning is losing his deep ball and will be looking more for the shorter routes in the middle of the field. Just my opinion, we will see.

Manning was 3rd in the league last year in accuracy on deep passes (deep being 20+ yards downfield). His 72 such attempts were 10 more than Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton, and twice as many as Robert Griffin. He had just four fewer deep completions than Joe Flacco, a noted deep ball specialist. During the playoff game against Baltimore, Manning didn't attempt any deep passes. Toward the end of the game, it looked like his passes were lacking zip (several Baltimore players were saying as much, too). This, however, is not representative of how Manning was in the regular season. It's possible that the playoff game is a harbinger of things to come, and his deep ball will continue to decline from here. It's possible his playoff game was a complete aberration stemming from playing the coldest game in his entire career (2nd coldest game in Denver history, iirc). It's possible that his arm strength really was waning, but another offseason of conditioning and rehab will get it back. It's possible he doesn't get all his zip back, but he gets used to his limitations and uses his elite accuracy and anticipation to compensate deep. It's impossible to say for sure going forward, but it's important to realize that over a sample of 17 games (instead of a sample of one game), Manning's deep ball was fine. That's a big reason why Demaryius had such a huge season last year.

jurb just thinks Welker has dropped off more than most of us do, which is fine. One thing that does scare me about Welker is that a little guy who relies so much on quickness might decline very rapidly.

That's basically it. Manning will play favor to nobody so saying he loves to throw to the slot guy is misleading IMO. He loves the open guy, the best option for that play or coverage. That is why he is an all time great QB. I just don't think Welker will be that guy more often than either of the already highly talented and established WRs they have on the team. I think this move will help the real NFL team and offense more than it will fantasy, especially as it relates to Welker. He will still put up respectable numbers but I think it will be a strong down tick from what we've grown used to in his NE days.

Maybe Manning won't play favorites, but Manning's offense is designed to heavily feature the inside receivers and has a large number of plays designed to get them open against certain defensive concepts. Welker may not be favored after the ball is snapped, but he'll certainly be favored before the snap if Peyton thinks he is well positioned to exploit a coverage he sees in the defensive alignment. In that respect, yes, Manning does love the slot guy as a deadly zone-busting weapon in the middle of the field.

 

[eaglesfan7]

You can do that math for anyone, whats your point?

Thomas is still a stud, do another post all you like but your opinion does not change the fact that he is an elite WR with an elite QB who performs. His upside is still huge and he is young, we are talking dyno here. People love to over think it, like I said.

If you missed the point then I'm afraid I'm going to have to hold you back a grade. I just don't have time to give every student extra attention when they fall behind.Plus, are we talking dyno here or are we talking about DT's value with Welker in town? It was just a two year contract so I was focusing on 2013. You missed my point and the subject of the thread... you're off to a hot start.

Well since your educating me, the OP posted this thread because of me I have Thomas in the Dyno he speaks of, so yes... we are talking dyno. Oh, and Thomas happen to be on my team when I won the title last year in said league.So thanks for the education, I'm sure if I applied your logic I would not be a champ right now.

Educate me more please, so I can know what not to do to win titles.

Who are your other big pieces on this team? Besides DT, who do you have that has stud value?

 

[FF Ninja]

You can do that math for anyone, whats your point?

Thomas is still a stud, do another post all you like but your opinion does not change the fact that he is an elite WR with an elite QB who performs. His upside is still huge and he is young, we are talking dyno here. People love to over think it, like I said.

If you missed the point then I'm afraid I'm going to have to hold you back a grade. I just don't have time to give every student extra attention when they fall behind.Plus, are we talking dyno here or are we talking about DT's value with Welker in town? It was just a two year contract so I was focusing on 2013. You missed my point and the subject of the thread... you're off to a hot start.

Well since your educating me, the OP posted this thread because of me I have Thomas in the Dyno he speaks of, so yes... we are talking dyno. Oh, and Thomas happen to be on my team when I won the title last year in said league.So thanks for the education, I'm sure if I applied your logic I would not be a champ right now.

Educate me more please, so I can know what not to do to win titles.

I don't care about your personal conversation. This thread made no indication to dynasty, so you are a fool to think this thread is full of people discussing DT's dynasty value when the title of the thread is "Damaryius Thomas value with Welker in town".Also, I couldn't care less about your claimed title. The rest of us are here to discuss how his 2013 value is affected with Welker now on the team. You don't win 2013 championships with 2012 stats.

This is solid analysis, but is your prediction any different because of Welker? Or is the predicted drop off solely because of the other factors?

Given how effective Thomas was, if things had stood pat, I'd have expected his targets to stay the same, if not see a bump up. With the addition of a target hog like Welker, I can't imagine DT seeing more targets in 2013. The decrease in catch rate and TDs I'd have expected with or without Welker. But from what I've seen, he appears to have really good hands, so I wouldn't be shocked if his catch rate increased next year with Welker drawing at least a little attention from coverage. But 67% is a really high number for the types of passes he is targeted on so I'd have a really hard time drafting him with the expectation of that rate continuing.We don't know how Welker's addition will affect his ADP next year, but I suspect plenty of people (or at least 1 out of the other 11 managers) will see 94/1442/10 and draft him using Phenix's logic. Thus, I think his price will be too high for me.

I don't think I'll draft any WRs in this offense due to price. Decker might get cheaper due to Welker, but he only saw 122 targets last year and caught 69.7% of them and 13 TDs, so his value could still be slightly inflated while his usage w/Welker is impossible to predict. I'd be very interested in the running back, though! I hope they stick with Moreno. He's just unimpressive enough that I think people would let him slip while focusing on the WRs. If anyone new comes in at RB, people are going to cream themselves.

So you do not want an elite WR with one of the best elite QBs on a pass first team?Do you realize how you sound right now, you sound like an obvious bias hater. Did he beat you in the SB last year or something?

You know Harrison still caught 100 passes with Wayne and Clark on board. lol Your math is all assumption anyways.

sorry Thomas beat you last year.

I'd love to have an elite WR with an elite QB (which I agree both players are). But I'm not going to pay for 2012 stats in a 2013 redraft.Do you realize how you sound right now, you sound like an obvious bias idiot. (punctuation and grammatical errors only included to mimic yours)

I played in a lot of leagues, so it is possible that Thomas was on a team that beat me in a H2H matchup at some point, but I doubt he made the difference in that outcome. If that was the case, I certainly don't remember. You are clearly grasping for reasons to discount opinions that differ from your own. Not sure why you are here. If you don't want a two sided discussion, what are you looking for here? You just want to read people hyping up players on your dynasty team? You are the reason people discount others' opinions when they know those people own a player. You are blinded by your roster. Stop blathering and just go rosterbate in a corner somewhere.

 

[David Yudkin]

As I posted in one of the other threads, I think there may be too many cooks in the kitchen in DEN now. I think all 3 receivers will see their numbers dip, as there is no way for Manning to throw the ball as much to Welker as often as Brady did without negatively impacting the other receivers. Peyton threw the ball almost 600 times last year. Welker got targeted roughly 190 times each year the past 2 years in NE. Manning won't throw the ball 800 times, so there will have to be a recalibration of the pass distribution.

Counting WR and TE together, here's how the Top 3 receivers have fared with Manning at QB in terms of fantasy points.

1998 120 110 57

1999 239 81 61

2000 225 83 76

2001 243 122 46

2002 240 96 84

2003 188 126 72

2004 201 193 168

2005 187 136 73

2006 209 185 61

2007 211 131 76

2008 151 121 94

2009 185 172 110

2010 172 115 113

2012 204 184 84

I think it will be much harder to have 3 top producing guys than it was to have two last year. But we will have to see how it all plays out.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Manning:

2004 4557 49 TD

Harrison:

2004 86 1113 15

Wayne:

2004 77 1210 12

Stokley:

2004 68 1077 10

Clark:

2004 25 423 5

2004 Harrison (287.3 FP) vs. 2012 Thomas (297.40)

2004 Wayne (270) vs. 2012 Decker (269.40)

2004 Stokley (235.7) vs. 2012 Welker (289.4)

2004 Clark (95.3) vs. 2012 Tamme (119.5)

*Excludes any rushing stats.

The 2004 season will serve as my baseline in projections for their WR group.

I do expect Manning's TD to go up in 2013 to the 40-45 area in Year 2.

I think Welker's addition will help D.Thomas tremendously not having to deal with double teams. Even if his (Thomas) reception total goes down, I expect the difference in his TD total to more than make up for it. If Thomas's FP's go up/down in 2013, IMO the difference will be minimal.

 

[CalBear]

The 2004 season will serve as my baseline in projections for their WR group.

Really?

 

[D'OHtis]

The 2004 season will serve as my baseline in projections for their WR group.I do expect Manning's TD to go up in 2013 to the 40-45 area in Year 2.I think Welker's addition will help D.Thomas tremendously not having to deal with double teams. Even if his (Thomas) reception total goes down, I expect the difference in his TD total to more than make up for it. If Thomas's FP's go up/down in 2013, IMO the difference will be minimal.

2004 season is my point of reference as well. I really don't think their will be much difference in the season end #s for Thomas in 2013.

 

[Mimo]

The 2004 season will serve as my baseline in projections for their WR group.I do expect Manning's TD to go up in 2013 to the 40-45 area in Year 2.I think Welker's addition will help D.Thomas tremendously not having to deal with double teams. Even if his (Thomas) reception total goes down, I expect the difference in his TD total to more than make up for it. If Thomas's FP's go up/down in 2013, IMO the difference will be minimal.

2004 season is my point of reference as well. I really don't think their will be much difference in the season end #s for Thomas in 2013.

2004 season as a point of reference for 2013 season? Anything is possible but I can't see those numbers

 

[D'OHtis]

2004 season as a point of reference for 2013 season? Anything is possible but I can't see those numbers

Other than TD's, there was minimal difference from 2012 vs. 2004 with Manning. The gun is weaker but the results weren't (and won't be as long as Thomas is there)IMO The 2013 Bronco top 3 WR are better than the 2004 one as a whole. I don't expect 49 TD's, but do expect 40-45. I expect Manning to be better a year removed from injury and the timing to be that much better in Year 2. I see no reason Manning won't throw close to 600 more times again in 2013. His 583 passes in 2012 were the 3rd most in his career. FWIW The Broncos were 9th in Rush Attempts. 10th in Pass Attempts in 2012.

 

[Mimo]

2004 season as a point of reference for 2013 season? Anything is possible but I can't see those numbers

Other than TD's, there was minimal difference from 2012 vs. 2004 with Manning. The gun is weaker but the results weren't (and won't be as long as Thomas is there)IMO The 2013 Bronco top 3 WR are better than the 2004 one as a whole. I don't expect 49 TD's, but do expect 40-45. I expect Manning to be better a year removed from injury and the timing to be that much better in Year 2. I see no reason Manning won't throw close to 600 more times again in 2013. His 583 passes in 2012 were the 3rd most in his career. FWIW The Broncos were 9th in Rush Attempts. 10th in Pass Attempts in 2012.

2004 vs 2012 Peyton had 64 less completions, 86 less attempts, only 110 yards less but 12 more TDs and 1 less INT. He was also 28 years old in a dome. If he don't hit 600 plus attempts I can't 2004 numbers. 600 plus attempts will be ALOT. I can't see Denver or Peyton wanting to air it out that much.

 

[Drop]

I don't think Welker is as much of a threat vertically, he seems to get his best separation horizontally with shakes moves, in and out option type stuff. I don't think he has the height, vertical jump, or speed to excel vertically from the slot. Maybe I'm wrong, but I picture a lot of his prolific value coming from being able to get open quickly in the short distance passing game and having the hands to catch bullets thrown at him. I don't really think he's best suited to run a skinny post from the slot against man coverage.

Vertical doesn't mean 40 yards downfield, it means more in the 10-20 yard range (as opposed to the 0-10 yard range). Stokley absolutely wrecked in that role last year, which should tell you all you need to know given that Stokley was the oldest receiver in the league and that even in his youth was a 4.55 kind of guy. Welker is so explosive, so hard to slow at the line, and such a threat on the short stuff that those seams and hooks will be open all day for him. Both offenses use their slot receiver differently, but both are also probably the two slot-friendliest offenses in the league. Brandon Stokley has for a long time been arguably the second best slot receiver in the game, but he's been getting up there in years. It seemed a long shot that Denver would be able to get an upgrade, but then they landed perhaps the one guy who can do what Stokley does better than Stokley does. Welker doesn't have Stokley's hands, but he makes up for it by being virtually uncoverable in the middle. Denver's Chris Harris is one of the top inside CB in the league today, and Welker worked him silly in their matchup last year. I'm super-excited to see him in town next year. I'm sure the RBs are, too, because it's going to be a long time before they see a base defense again.

We disagree on so much here, but I appreciate the discussion. I'm still OK with banking on BayBay producing as much or more than last season though because of how physically dominant he is and my opinion of how boss the strategy of basing so much around him is. As a fan you do have a lot to be excited about in any case.