Routilla
Footballguy
True. Those were 2 of my "locks" last week. LOL.
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DENVER -9 AND OVER 46 SEEMS LIKE A LOCK (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter coachjim
- Start date
Vicktimized
Footballguy
I wouldn't touch Denver at -9.
Huard isn't a worldbeater, but he makes more happen with that offense than Thigpen ever could. LJ may not be what he was, but he's still capable of having a nice game or drawing attention. And Bowe/Gonzo are both great bets to score.
The Chiefs don't have the talent to stop Denver. But does Denver have the defensive pieces in place to stop KC? You couldn't see a 30-23 final (on a garbage TD with the score 30-16 late)?
If I have Broncos, I'm throwing them out there. If I have Chiefs...ditto.
Huard isn't a worldbeater, but he makes more happen with that offense than Thigpen ever could. LJ may not be what he was, but he's still capable of having a nice game or drawing attention. And Bowe/Gonzo are both great bets to score.
The Chiefs don't have the talent to stop Denver. But does Denver have the defensive pieces in place to stop KC? You couldn't see a 30-23 final (on a garbage TD with the score 30-16 late)?
If I have Broncos, I'm throwing them out there. If I have Chiefs...ditto.
Vicktimized
Footballguy
Oh, and barring bad weather...I'm going over on this one all day.
There are 2 basic truths when it comes to beting:1. Vegas knows more than the public
2. Vegas has more money than the public
Considering that, Vegas can take calculated risks whenever they want.
They can and do take on extra risk/return without "exposing themselves to bankruptcy". Why would they pass up edges that are well within their bankroll?Saying that they shouldn't take risk for extra return is like saying everyone should invest in T-Bills instead of stocks.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I just bet Chiefs +11.5 -110. GL.
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Can you elaborate on #1? What do they know more of specifically ...Steeler43 said:
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
They know that most people are idiots when it comes to betting. They aren't. Not being an idiot >>>> being an idiot.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Common bettor: I like Team A gettting so many points here because these divisional rivalry games are always close and hard fought.Vegas Sportsbook: Theres a common line of thought that division games between these two teams are always close. Instead of just blindly believing that lets hire another staff member whose sole job will be to research this line of thought and prove whether its a myth or not. Furhtermore, lets look at the players on these two teams in particular are research whether or not they have a history of playing harder and better in big rivalry games. We will go into this research with an open mind and will trust whatever our results tell us.Common bettor: Its Brett Favre on Monday Night...he always does well.Vegas Sportsbook: Lets take an indepth look at how well above expectation Brett Favre has performed on Monday night and/or other nationally televised games. Then lets make sure we fully understand variance and determine whether or not this is something that we can accurately mark as a trend or whether its a product of a small sample size.Common bettor: I'm 12-0 on the season. I must be really good. I'm so glad that I publicly posted my picks on that message board. Now everyone will think I'm really good and some people may even follow my picks next week.Vegas Sportsbook: This one customer of ours is 12-0. Obviously we can cut off someone if we think he has an edge against us. But rather than just blindly take a look at his record, lets take a look at the games hes picked and determine whether or not he truly found lines that were off or whehter hes just experiencing positive variance. Furthermore lets take a look if hes gotten the best lines each week by betting at the right time and showing that he can accurately predict the line movements throughout the week.Vegas Sportsbook: We have a great research team that knows all the ins and outs of the NFL. If there is any breaking news we always hear it first. Several memebers of our research team have inside connections and all of them are very experienced in the sport. They meet with the research teams from other casinos, and we help each other which is why all of our lines are usually similarly. Having done all of that, we have determined a line for tonight's game that we don't think anyone can beat giving up -110 juice because neither side is greater than 52% likely to hit.Common bettor: OMG, Team A is a lock tonight!
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
possibly the biggest Chief fan on this board...I know of a couple other....and I live an hour north of Denver
I have seen both teams and I really believe this will be a cakewalk for Denver
many thought Denver would have trouble in OK without Marshall....how did that turn out
the Chiefs got beat at home by OK easily....wasn't even as close as it seemed
Denver is not phased by playing on the road and KC has lost much of it's HFA
the fans will be happy if KC is still in it in the second half
KC will not be able to stop Denver's offense.....just won't
KC does not have the talent to get in a shootout and Denver will score a ton of points
KC running game becomes a non factor as soon as they get down by two scores
the KC running game that people think they will continue to run at the bad Denver D is not the KC running game it used to be
not even close
Denver has had the Chiefs number for years, with an occasional victory by KC mixed in, but Shanny knows how to gameplan against the Chiefs and is much better than Herm....he will continnue to pile up points even when he is ahead becuase he has seen teams come back on him after being down big......KC does not have that capability
the only thing that would have made me nervous about this game would have been the way KC played against NE....they hung in there and could have won, but we saw last week against Miami that KC hanging with NE really means nothing
if my jewels were big enough I would bet the farm.......
I have seen both teams and I really believe this will be a cakewalk for Denver
many thought Denver would have trouble in OK without Marshall....how did that turn out
the Chiefs got beat at home by OK easily....wasn't even as close as it seemed
Denver is not phased by playing on the road and KC has lost much of it's HFA
the fans will be happy if KC is still in it in the second half
KC will not be able to stop Denver's offense.....just won't
KC does not have the talent to get in a shootout and Denver will score a ton of points
KC running game becomes a non factor as soon as they get down by two scores
the KC running game that people think they will continue to run at the bad Denver D is not the KC running game it used to be
not even close
Denver has had the Chiefs number for years, with an occasional victory by KC mixed in, but Shanny knows how to gameplan against the Chiefs and is much better than Herm....he will continnue to pile up points even when he is ahead becuase he has seen teams come back on him after being down big......KC does not have that capability
the only thing that would have made me nervous about this game would have been the way KC played against NE....they hung in there and could have won, but we saw last week against Miami that KC hanging with NE really means nothing
if my jewels were big enough I would bet the farm.......
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
IIRC, Cutler blew up last year against the Chiefs, and that's when he was an undiagnosed diabetic. KC's defense is significantly worse than last year. Denver is obviously going to put up points.
The key to this game, imo, is how KC's offense performs. Huard is back and he's the best they have. The public isn't even thinking about the impact Huard will have. They have a stud RB in LJ, a stud WR in Bowe, and a stud TE in Gonzalez, so it's not like they don't have weapons.
Denver has one of the worst defenses in the league. Yea they're 3-0, but they can't stop anybody. Heck, if the Raiders don't turn the ball over early and score a TD instead, that could of been a lot closer ball game. The Raiders were just screwed once they fell behind early because they're not a come from behind team.
Factor in 3 points for hfa, and this line seems about right to me. If I had to bet, I would go with Denver, but as of right now I see don't see a significant edge in doing so. To call any NFL game a lock, let alone this game, is ludicrous.
Not sure if a tweener would be profitable or not since I don't do them, and don't know the profitable #'s. Have seen the spread anywhere from -9 to -11. What's the % chance Denver wins by exactly 9, 10, or 11 points?
The key to this game, imo, is how KC's offense performs. Huard is back and he's the best they have. The public isn't even thinking about the impact Huard will have. They have a stud RB in LJ, a stud WR in Bowe, and a stud TE in Gonzalez, so it's not like they don't have weapons.
Denver has one of the worst defenses in the league. Yea they're 3-0, but they can't stop anybody. Heck, if the Raiders don't turn the ball over early and score a TD instead, that could of been a lot closer ball game. The Raiders were just screwed once they fell behind early because they're not a come from behind team.
Factor in 3 points for hfa, and this line seems about right to me. If I had to bet, I would go with Denver, but as of right now I see don't see a significant edge in doing so. To call any NFL game a lock, let alone this game, is ludicrous.
Not sure if a tweener would be profitable or not since I don't do them, and don't know the profitable #'s. Have seen the spread anywhere from -9 to -11. What's the % chance Denver wins by exactly 9, 10, or 11 points?
Black Label Society
Footballguy
How does your LOCK look so far today?
I hope you win with denver, but its too close.................ballstein guru
Linus Scrimmage
Footballguy
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Whenever you see lock in the title, bet the opposite. Seems like these locks fail 75% of the time.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Did you even read the posting itself, or did you just read the title of the thread?
Black Label Society
Footballguy
I posted in this thread like 8 times TELLING everyone this game wasn't a cakewalk.Did you read the thread, or are you just jumping in to be a peckerhead?
LABEL DEAD ON TARGET
Black Label Society
Footballguy
BLACKLABEL DEAD ON TARGET
Bills_Fan11
Footballguy
Tough break. Laying 9.5 with a terrible defense on the road in a rivalry game involving two of the largest home/road split teams in the league sure seemed like a solid play.
Cue Uma Thurman from Pulp Fiction diagraming that square.
Cue Uma Thurman from Pulp Fiction diagraming that square.
Last edited by a moderator:
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I love these threads.
Blue-Kun
Footballguy
MARK IT DOWN.I love these threads.
Nipsey
Footballguy
You're wrong.No...they don't.Yes, they do sometimes. Dallas/GB last week a great example.Vegas does not make lines to get more action on one side.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Black Label Society
Footballguy
I was told that when I said KC had a decent chance of covering this game too.You're wrong.No...they don't.Yes, they do sometimes. Dallas/GB last week a great example.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Actually they fail about 50% of the time. And Vegas charges juice which means you can't beat a line unless its >52.5% likely for one side to win.Each week theres a new "lock". Green Bay -3@ Detroit in week 2, Car+3.5@ Min in week 3, this one here in week 4, probably Buffalo this coming week.....some people swear by these locks. Others swear that if the line looks off then it must be a trap by the bookmakers and you should bet the side the doesn't make sense to you...both are wrong.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
One is a guarantee and the other is not. Vegas' #1 goal is to get equal money on both sides; I 100% disagree that they sometimes make a line knowing/wanting more action on one side.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Well done.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
...if I do say so myself.
That is why the line changes. When too much money is being put on one team, Vegas changes the line to try to get the amounts bet on theteams as close to even as they can. Vegas makes money on the "juice", not on the outcome of the game.Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
This is one of those bets where you don't wanna think about the desperate, lonely person who killed himself over the outcome.
On the other hand, this upset does mean BIG LAFFS for me, so we'll call it even.
On the other hand, this upset does mean BIG LAFFS for me, so we'll call it even.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Vegas' #1 goal is to set a line in which neither side is a profitable bet due to the juice. Because of that they don't care about balancing action like the common bettor thinks- in the same way, they don't care about getting an equal number of bets on black and red for each spin of roulette- if both are -EV bets then they cannot lose in the longterm.Sometimes though, they make these lines that are -EV for both side, fully knowing that the public is going to eat up one side and it will be a "risk" for them. However, since that side, like the other side, is right around 50% to win and they are charging -110 juice they don't care.For the most part Vegas isn't worried about risk like you think they are because they have plenty of $$ to offset risk. They are most concerned with maximizing their EV. The one exception may be huge events like the Super Bowl where balancing action may be the #1 priority because such a ridiculous amount of money will be bet on it that it would be a risk, even for them, to have it very inbalanced.As a regular poker player at the Wynn, trust me when I say that I've seen some extremely rich people come through there....people risking millions on stupid table games at the casino. When you consider that the casino is willing to give them action on some very very slightly -EV games like craps, it makes you realize that the casino is most definitely not going to be too worried if they get unbalanced action from a few tourists betting $100 per game.
Vegas' #1 goal is to make lots of money without taking undue risk. Sometimes that means going for balanced action; sometimes it doesn't.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
good thing I didn't drop any money on this game, didn't see a KC win coming!
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