Saw this post on another forum and it really caught my attention. I knew McGahee was putting up some numbers at the start of the year and then Moreno was considered to be one of the WW players of the year, but I don't think I realized just how good Denvers RB1 was for fantasy production and that has seemed to go unnoticed to a certain extent. Yea you have Moreno, McGahee, and Hillman so there there is risk involved, but the reward looks like it could be very rewarding and easy to cover your bases. I'll just copy paste what this poster had to say:
"I noticed something I think has really flown under the radar..... Denver's RB1 is.. or at least was over the past 18 weeks.. a top 5 fantasy running back.
If you look at the numbers, they break down like this:
-Willis McGahee over the first half of the season was RB #7 overall right behind CJ Spiller/LeSean McCoy and just ahead of Frank Gore/Doug Martin/Marshawn Lynch/Ridley/Morris/Jamaal Charles (actually passes Trent Richardson's 16.11 PPG with 16.85 to takeover the RB6 spot if you account for Denver's week 7 bye)
-Once Knowshon takes over as the starter, he is the #4 overall RB the remainder of the season producing 18.48 PPG finishing behind only Adrian Peterson/Lynch/Rice, and just ahead of Alfred Morris, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Trent Richardson, Darren Sproles, Martin, etc.
-Moreno/McGahee's combined Points Per Game Average (not adding their total points together, just taking McGahee's first half averages and Moreno's averages from when he was announced the starter) ends up being the #5 overall PPG for RBs, just behind Arian Foster/Ray Rice, and just ahead of Marshawn Lynch, Trent Richardson, CJ Spiller, Jamaal Charles, Alfred Morris.. etc
So even though Denver's RB1 produced fantasy numbers that put them in the same class as Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Trent Richardson, CJ Spiller, Doug Martin LeSean McCoy and other great-but-way-too-damn-expensive-to-trade-for Running Backs... neither of them is being viewed as more than a low end RB2 or a player taking up roster space. I think there are a few reasons for this - 1) They aren't the flavor of the week.. all the attention/hype is surrounding players like Kaepernick/Crabtree/Russell Wilson, and 2) everybody is concerned with making their roster look pretty on paper by going after the David Wilsons and Lamar Millers because they're young with a "chance" at "maybe" being of use to a starting lineup if this/this/and that happen because they have "talent," or even trying to outsmart the rest of their league by playing the Free Agency Roulette wheel by going after Bush, Ivory, Mendenhall and other players you probably wont feel confident with in your starting lineup. This is the time of the year people are more concerned with making their roster look pretty on paper than having a roster that's going to score the most points and have a crack at winning.
I can see why the two wouldn't be worth a ton on their own (although Moreno has been going as early as the 4th round in recent start ups.) McGahee is old coming off an injury, there is a chance he might be released.. Moreno has had trouble staying healthy, and there is a chance McGahee is kept moving Moreno back to back up duties. Hillman is also hanging around, but I just can't see him being more than a COP. Both players have risk involved.. but what if you just acquire them both and then plug whoever ends up starting for Denver into your starting lineup? They would be easy to acquire, especially McGahee, but if the teams RB1 comes anywhere even remotely close to matching this seasons numbers you're left with an RB1 and his handcuff at RB3-6 prices. Or even better, they release McGahee and you're still left with Denver's RB1 plus McGahee if he lands in say.. idk, just spitballing here - GB/ATL. Low risk, very high reward that's been proven and comes with an insurance policy.
So in a nutshell... Denvers RB1 is a very, very good one to have on a fantasy team. It's the perfect storm - Peyton Manning and one of the best offenses/return games in the league scoring a ton of points early (second highest points scored in the league), and then one of the best young defenses in the league not allowing points to be scored and getting the ball back (4th best in points allowed). Those two combined with the fact that Denver will do their best to protect Peyton means their teams starting RB is going to be getting the ball, a ton, without ever being the focal point of the opposing defense. That situation creates a fantasy goldmine."
I have seen Moreno go anywhere from the 3rd-6th round in start up and mock drafts, or traded for rookie picks as early as 1.02, but I have to agree with most of the above. For the amount you would likely spend to stash these players on your roster or just add the missing piece, it could be very well worth it. Similar to how Arian Foster, Doug Martin, and Alfred Morris aren't elite talents along the lines of Adrian Peterson or Frank Gore but are elite for fantasy - Moreno/McGahee are also just very good at what their team needs them to do and the "elite situation" they're in produces elite fantasy RB1 numbers.
"I noticed something I think has really flown under the radar..... Denver's RB1 is.. or at least was over the past 18 weeks.. a top 5 fantasy running back.
If you look at the numbers, they break down like this:
-Willis McGahee over the first half of the season was RB #7 overall right behind CJ Spiller/LeSean McCoy and just ahead of Frank Gore/Doug Martin/Marshawn Lynch/Ridley/Morris/Jamaal Charles (actually passes Trent Richardson's 16.11 PPG with 16.85 to takeover the RB6 spot if you account for Denver's week 7 bye)
-Once Knowshon takes over as the starter, he is the #4 overall RB the remainder of the season producing 18.48 PPG finishing behind only Adrian Peterson/Lynch/Rice, and just ahead of Alfred Morris, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Trent Richardson, Darren Sproles, Martin, etc.
-Moreno/McGahee's combined Points Per Game Average (not adding their total points together, just taking McGahee's first half averages and Moreno's averages from when he was announced the starter) ends up being the #5 overall PPG for RBs, just behind Arian Foster/Ray Rice, and just ahead of Marshawn Lynch, Trent Richardson, CJ Spiller, Jamaal Charles, Alfred Morris.. etc
So even though Denver's RB1 produced fantasy numbers that put them in the same class as Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Trent Richardson, CJ Spiller, Doug Martin LeSean McCoy and other great-but-way-too-damn-expensive-to-trade-for Running Backs... neither of them is being viewed as more than a low end RB2 or a player taking up roster space. I think there are a few reasons for this - 1) They aren't the flavor of the week.. all the attention/hype is surrounding players like Kaepernick/Crabtree/Russell Wilson, and 2) everybody is concerned with making their roster look pretty on paper by going after the David Wilsons and Lamar Millers because they're young with a "chance" at "maybe" being of use to a starting lineup if this/this/and that happen because they have "talent," or even trying to outsmart the rest of their league by playing the Free Agency Roulette wheel by going after Bush, Ivory, Mendenhall and other players you probably wont feel confident with in your starting lineup. This is the time of the year people are more concerned with making their roster look pretty on paper than having a roster that's going to score the most points and have a crack at winning.
I can see why the two wouldn't be worth a ton on their own (although Moreno has been going as early as the 4th round in recent start ups.) McGahee is old coming off an injury, there is a chance he might be released.. Moreno has had trouble staying healthy, and there is a chance McGahee is kept moving Moreno back to back up duties. Hillman is also hanging around, but I just can't see him being more than a COP. Both players have risk involved.. but what if you just acquire them both and then plug whoever ends up starting for Denver into your starting lineup? They would be easy to acquire, especially McGahee, but if the teams RB1 comes anywhere even remotely close to matching this seasons numbers you're left with an RB1 and his handcuff at RB3-6 prices. Or even better, they release McGahee and you're still left with Denver's RB1 plus McGahee if he lands in say.. idk, just spitballing here - GB/ATL. Low risk, very high reward that's been proven and comes with an insurance policy.
So in a nutshell... Denvers RB1 is a very, very good one to have on a fantasy team. It's the perfect storm - Peyton Manning and one of the best offenses/return games in the league scoring a ton of points early (second highest points scored in the league), and then one of the best young defenses in the league not allowing points to be scored and getting the ball back (4th best in points allowed). Those two combined with the fact that Denver will do their best to protect Peyton means their teams starting RB is going to be getting the ball, a ton, without ever being the focal point of the opposing defense. That situation creates a fantasy goldmine."
I have seen Moreno go anywhere from the 3rd-6th round in start up and mock drafts, or traded for rookie picks as early as 1.02, but I have to agree with most of the above. For the amount you would likely spend to stash these players on your roster or just add the missing piece, it could be very well worth it. Similar to how Arian Foster, Doug Martin, and Alfred Morris aren't elite talents along the lines of Adrian Peterson or Frank Gore but are elite for fantasy - Moreno/McGahee are also just very good at what their team needs them to do and the "elite situation" they're in produces elite fantasy RB1 numbers.