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DeShuan Foster this year's Larry Johnson? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter nathanbalboa
- Start date
TheWick
Footballguy
I agree completley...he was pretty darn good last year with Davis stealing his thunder.
packersfan
Footballguy
I like him a lot this year too. My draft is Thursday and his ADP suggests he'll be on the board for my third-round pick and I'm thinking VERY hard about taking him as my RB3 instead of a WR such as Driver (who I like a lot this year) or Roy Williams. Foster's durability issues concern me but I think he could be a stud when he plays and if I handcuff him with DeAngelo I should be in great shape at that roster spot.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
For those looking to handcuff Foster and Williams, there's nothing to say that Williams is automatically the handcuff. If Foster got nicked up early, it could very well be Goings that could take over. And Eric Shelton is still on the roster (not that I think he will do a whole lot). If Foster got hurt, it could be a RBBC with Goings the majority ball carrier. That's pure speculation on my part.
packersfan
Footballguy
I wouldn't rule that out since Goings has definitely proven he can handle the starting job. But I'm a big Williams fan and I think he's got special talent. I'd be shocked if he didn't get a chance to start if (when) Foster got hurt. I'm not buying into Shelton.
Otis
Footballguy
Seriously??????????
JayMan
Footballguy
I was intrigued by Synthesizer's definition and wanted to look more closely at this assumption... as I think it might be helpful to figure out if "every guy touching the ball 20 times will get 100 or even 130 yards in the game"... like he mentionedI have looked at every game played by a RB since 1997 - with at least 20 touches (carries + receptions)... There are 2525 such player/games... (i.e. on average 280 per year or 16.5 per week)I count seven RBs that had 1600 yards last year.And every team has a starting RB, your definition seems rather "unique" and arbitrary.Almost any = 80%Starting RB = 20 touches
I'd be interested in seeing the numbers.
Out of these 2525 games where a RB had 20 or more touches:
900 had at least 130 combined yards - while 1635 had under 130 combined yards
1621 had at least 100 combined yards - while 904 had under 100 combined yards
All of this to say that:
35.6% of the RBs that touches the ball 20 or more times will get at least 130 combined yards - while 64.4% won't attaign the 130 yards plateau
64.2% of the RBs that touches the ball 20 or more times will get at least 100 combined yards - while 35.8% won't attaign the 100 yards plateau
Far from the "almost any": 80% hypothesis...
---
On average, RBs that had at least 20 touches had... 25.8 touches for 119.6 combined yards or a 4.64 ypt
In general, for every RB game since 1997 - 9.6 touches for 43.1 combined yards or a 4.48 ypt
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(FYI Tomlinson had a game of 48 touches in '02 against the Broncos on week13 (overtime) - 37 rushes and 11 receptions for 220+51 yards and 3tds... yikes!)
simey
Footballguy
Why isn't he tough, because he broke his collarbone and leg? Did you expect him to play with those broken bones? He had a bad case of turf toe at the end of the regular season last year, and played through it, and played very well. What makes him not tough?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
JayMan -
I think you took things literally vs. figuratively. I think if you did the same research and looked at ON AVERAGE that guys with 20+ touches per game WILL AVERAGE at least 100 yards per game.
So if someone had 320 touches on a season he would have at least 1600 yards 80% of the time.
In the past 10 seasons, 119 RB had 320 touches. 76 of them at at least 1600 total yards. That's 64%. Five more average 100 yards per game but didn't play in all 16 games. That gets it up to 68%. And a lot of the other players were in the high 90 yards per game range.
I think you took things literally vs. figuratively. I think if you did the same research and looked at ON AVERAGE that guys with 20+ touches per game WILL AVERAGE at least 100 yards per game.
So if someone had 320 touches on a season he would have at least 1600 yards 80% of the time.
In the past 10 seasons, 119 RB had 320 touches. 76 of them at at least 1600 total yards. That's 64%. Five more average 100 yards per game but didn't play in all 16 games. That gets it up to 68%. And a lot of the other players were in the high 90 yards per game range.
Buckychudd
Footballguy
Good point. They would probably ease Williams into the position with Goings getting the majority of the carries early. Fox is not afraid of RBBC.
Otis
Footballguy
Code:
26 DeShaun Foster, RB Height: 6-0Weight: 222Birthdate: 01/10/1980Birthplace: Charlotte, NC, USATeam: Carolina PanthersPosition: Running BackYears Pro: 5Games: 33Attempts: 377
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simey
Footballguy
No, but your originality is.
Bluestaples
Footballguy
I'm sorry - what do facts have to do with originalty?Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.
simey
Footballguy
I don't think what he posted shows at all that Foster isn't tough. What isn't original? The word "down" being used constantly. I''ll add "Thanks, I'll hang up and listen" to that too. Sounds like a bunch of clones or robots.
Bluestaples
Footballguy
kinda like dudes whining about everything in the sharkpool, huh?God bless the internet!
Big Score
Footballguy
I do think Foster does play "tough". Unfortunately for him, that results in multiple injuries because he has proven to be rather "fragile", both in College & the Pros.simey said:
I remember watching a Carolina game last year where Foster caught a pass and then finished off his run by plowing into the defender for extra yardage.
That is an example of Foster playing "tough".
Unfortunately, because he is so "fragile", he injured his shoulder on that "tough" play and was pulled from the rest of the game due to the injury.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Foster is the equivalent of 3B Adrian Beltre. Beltre was hyped and hyped for years that he would be the next big thing in fantasy circles. Beltre hit it big in his 7th season after many people were convinced he would never be productive. And then he went back to being his marginal self.
Foster may at some point have a year where he puts it all together. The question is how often will people be willing to take a leap of faith and grab him?
Foster may at some point have a year where he puts it all together. The question is how often will people be willing to take a leap of faith and grab him?
DoubleG
Footballguy
For the umpteenth+ time:"Two fluke broken bone injuries" does NOT equal "injury prone"IMHO, "injury prone" refers to a player who has nagging, chronic injuries (i.e. a bad knee, hammy's), various muscle stains that continually cause him to miss playes/series/games. Fred Taylor and Chris Brown are injury prone. Is Javon Walker injury prone? How about Steve Smith? My point is simply that you can't look at a stat sheet, see that a guy has missed games and automatically tag him as "injury prone". When Foster has had an "injury" he had generally played through it - you can't play through broken bones.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
It is all about value. Foster could outplay his ADP.
jurb26
Footballguy
You do realize that these "fluke injuries" have followed Foster not only for his 3 year NFL career, but also for his 4 year college career and 4 year highschool career. Thats a lot of "fluke injury" years, wouldn't you say?
jurb26
Footballguy
Yeah, but there's a better chance that the guy who takes over for him outplays his ADP by a good bit more.
That's the point I think alot of people are missing. He's great as my RB3 that I scooped up late after everyone but Chris Brown was left.
Synthesizer
Footballguy
Cool, nice research. So about 2/3 of all RBs who touch the ball 20 times end up with over 100 yards, and about 1/3 end up with over 130 yards.JayMan said:I was intrigued by Synthesizer's definition and wanted to look more closely at this assumption... as I think it might be helpful to figure out if "every guy touching the ball 20 times will get 100 or even 130 yards in the game"... like he mentionedI have looked at every game played by a RB since 1997 - with at least 20 touches (carries + receptions)... There are 2525 such player/games... (i.e. on average 280 per year or 16.5 per week)I count seven RBs that had 1600 yards last year.And every team has a starting RB, your definition seems rather "unique" and arbitrary.Almost any = 80%Starting RB = 20 touches
I'd be interested in seeing the numbers.
Out of these 2525 games where a RB had 20 or more touches:
900 had at least 130 combined yards - while 1635 had under 130 combined yards
1621 had at least 100 combined yards - while 904 had under 100 combined yards
All of this to say that:
35.6% of the RBs that touches the ball 20 or more times will get at least 130 combined yards - while 64.4% won't attaign the 130 yards plateau
64.2% of the RBs that touches the ball 20 or more times will get at least 100 combined yards - while 35.8% won't attaign the 100 yards plateau
Far from the "almost any": 80% hypothesis...
---
On average, RBs that had at least 20 touches had... 25.8 touches for 119.6 combined yards or a 4.64 ypt
In general, for every RB game since 1997 - 9.6 touches for 43.1 combined yards or a 4.48 ypt
---
(FYI Tomlinson had a game of 48 touches in '02 against the Broncos on week13 (overtime) - 37 rushes and 11 receptions for 220+51 yards and 3tds... yikes!)
meanjoegreen
Footballguy
The Carolina coaching staff have commented before on his injuries being legit freak injuries. I'll take their perception over yours.
jurb26
Footballguy
This is not perception it is fact. Foster has been hurt nearly every year of his football life NFL, college and highschool. Call the injuries "fluke" if you want to. You can't take back the fact that they have happened.
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meanjoegreen
Footballguy
They could have happened to anybody. It wasn't because he is made of glass. You have a low opinion of Foster, which is shown in every Foster thread you enter. We get it. Foster could very well perform higher than his ADP this year. He has the opportunity, now he just has to do it. What's sad is that you are more than likely sitting on pins and needles praying for him to get hurt, so you can bump up all the Foster threads and gloat. I don't own him in any leagues, but I hope he stays healthy. He is a good kid, has great talent, and has this "injury prone" cloud over him. I'd like to see him succeed.
Guess I fall somewhere in the middle on this. I believe Foster has as much raw talent as just about any back in the league. I also think it's foolish to deny the injury problem.
I think he could pay off big this year, but make sure you've got this:
http://tinyurl.com/n45tu
I think he could pay off big this year, but make sure you've got this:
http://tinyurl.com/n45tu
Jason Wood
Zoo York
DeShaun Foster must have telepathic powers. Somehow he hold a collective influence on a lot of otherwise savvy people and, despite failing year in, year out to meet expectations, gets people to re-up and bet on him again.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
you realize your predictions from Foster equate to nothing NEAR what LJ did last year in limited games?
Colin
Colin
Native
Footballguy
People said the same things about Lamnt Jordan and Larry Johnson when they were backing up veteran runners. In particular, a LOT of people doubted Larry Johnson early on. People overlooked the simple fact that he never had the chance to be "the guy". Well, this is Deshauns first year as a #1 RB. If you watched Carolina play last year, it will evident from the getgo that Foster was the best back on the roster. Fox stuck with Davis out of loyalty only. Now Deshaun will benefit from the same "loyalty factor" that screwed him last season.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Native, I disagree with every sentence in your comment.
1 and 2. No one said that about Lamont Jordan or Larry Johnson. People were jocking all over Lamont for years, waiting waiting waiting for him to get a chance. Johnson was piled on b/c he was from Penn State, and the moment he was given a real role, he shut everyone up.
3 and 4. They've wanted Foster to be the guy for a while now, and he gets hurt every time. They have spent a 2nd round pick and a first round pick in the last two drafts trying to shore up a position of weakness.
5. Foster being the best back on the roster and being the most productive back on the roster are two different things. Davis was a slow, lumbering guy with injuries last year and still managed to score 12 TDs.
6. Re: "Loyalty" = Link? Seriously, you believe that? Fox cares about winning games and scoring TDs. If Foster shows he can do that, then he'll definitely be given the opportunity to do so. But if he can't, or (more likely) when he breaks a bone in week 4, I suspect someone else will be Carolina's most productive runner this year.
1 and 2. No one said that about Lamont Jordan or Larry Johnson. People were jocking all over Lamont for years, waiting waiting waiting for him to get a chance. Johnson was piled on b/c he was from Penn State, and the moment he was given a real role, he shut everyone up.
3 and 4. They've wanted Foster to be the guy for a while now, and he gets hurt every time. They have spent a 2nd round pick and a first round pick in the last two drafts trying to shore up a position of weakness.
5. Foster being the best back on the roster and being the most productive back on the roster are two different things. Davis was a slow, lumbering guy with injuries last year and still managed to score 12 TDs.
6. Re: "Loyalty" = Link? Seriously, you believe that? Fox cares about winning games and scoring TDs. If Foster shows he can do that, then he'll definitely be given the opportunity to do so. But if he can't, or (more likely) when he breaks a bone in week 4, I suspect someone else will be Carolina's most productive runner this year.
omally
Footballguy
How did he fail last year, he wasn't even the starter? When he became the starter he did well, although he broke his leg in the second preseason game. That could have been Delhomme who broke his leg, or Smith, etc. In fantasy football, why wouldn't people bet on Foster? He isn't being drafted high, but he is in a good situation this year. He is the starter on a good team, which is also a team that likes to run. I remember last year you said Steve Smith would be a bust. Didn't happen did it?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Actually, Foster was supposed to be th e starter but Davis made a miraculous recovery the week beofre the season started and retook the role of starter. IMO, all signs point to Foster being given a shot but being on a very short leash. The team did not feel good enough about him starting the season and instead opted for Davis coming off a major injury at 30 sometihng instead. As others have mentioned, they've invested a fair amount in the draft on RB the past two seasons as well. None of these lead me to believe that the Panthers have been thinking that Foster is their savior.I've outlined in several threads that the core of Foster's production has occurred over three games and in his other 30 games he has been very mediocre, even when starting. I personally don't think he's all that talented, he clearly has had a poor injury history, and the Panthers over the past several seasons have posted BELOW AVERAGE TO POOR production running the ball. None of those cry out PICK ME on draft day.Your options come draft day will likely be Foster or:A Top 5-10 WRA Top QB not named PeytonA Top 5 TE not named GatesI personally would rather have any of those options over Foster as they are far more likely to pan out than Foster.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I'm definitely a believer that prior-injury doesn't predict future injury, and anyone could have gotten huirt like he has. Yes, he offers nice value and yes, he is the starter on a team that likes to run. That said, MY hesitation with thinking too much of him centers around the fact I have not been impressed with him in when I have seen him play.
Exactly -- he wasn't good enough to win the starting job, despite all expectations.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
eggsactly.In reference to the bolded portion:David Yudkin said:
Carolina has shown they are commited to running the ball though under Fox regardless of how proficient they are doing it. Lamar Smith Nick Goings Foster Brad Hoover and a over the hill Stephan Davis are not the greatest talents to get a significant ammount of carries compared to other Rbs in the league.
DeAngelo Williams could change this....
GiantsRule
Footballguy
I can guarantee that Foster will have a Top 5 RB season...I just traded him for Randy Moss.
el-gato-grande
Footballguy
Larry Johnson is this year's Larry Johnson.
HULLOBUDMAN
Footballguy
David Yudkin said:
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jurb26
Footballguy
Actually, you're dead wrong. I've been trying to trade for him for 3 years and actually fired up the Foster band wagon until this year. Fact is, Foster just hasn't really performed all that dang well even when he has been healthy. That has been broken down several times already. The bottom line is that Foster has always had the opportunity, he just neer has "done it." Maybe this is the magic year. Who knows. The perception of this guys "talent" is severly overrated though.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Righetti
Footballguy
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