DeShuan Foster this year's Larry Johnson? (1 Viewer)

[nathanbalboa]

Two years ago, Vermeil was saying LJ needed to "take off the diaper." Johnson touched the ball only 41 times in his first 26 games in the league, and looked like another Big Ten running back bust. But over the last 8 games in 2004, Johnson averaged 91 yards a game and showed the ability to be an elite back. Heading into 2005, there was a lot of potential (playing for an offense that produced huge rushing totals), but he was stuck behind an aging veteran. After his path was cleared with the Holmes injury, he had a huge 2005, and will be a top 3 draft pick in every fantasy league in 2006.

While I know the situations aren't entirely the same (Foster's health, KC runs more and has a stronger line, LJ has a higher upside) I believe that Foster could jump into elite status this year.

Here's why I think Foster could have a break out:

-Over the last 8 games in 2005 (including the play-offs) Foster averaged 95.5 yards a game (while battling nagging injuries). Over an entire season, that equals 1528 yards.

-Foster has shown the ability to be explosive. Over the last 8 games in 2005, Foster rushed for totals 131, 165 and 151 (in the play-offs).

-Foster is a multi-purpose back who can catch the ball well and averaged about two receptions and 25 receiving yards a game.

-Davis was the goal line back in 2005, but the Panthers are a running team and rushed for 17 touchdowns in 2005. With Foster being the lead back, he should get a good share of the goal line touches.

-The Panthers rush the ball no matter who's in the backfield. When Goings was carrying the ball, he averaged 26 rushes a game over the 7 games he started. Foster should get at least 20 rushes in most game.

-The Panthers have a strong offensive line that should provide plenty of holes.

-Carolina clearly believes he can be "the man" since they've given him a large contract and haven't pursued any other significant options at RB. The draft could change this, but that has not happened yet.

-While Foster has the tag of "injury prone" he only missed one game last year and played through a lot of nagging injuries, so the guy is tough and can take a pounding.

-The injuries from the past have been flukes that have resulted in serious injuries. There's no reason to expect another significant "fluke" injury. It's not like he has bad ankles or suffers from concussions.

-He's got a lot of mileage left. He's only 26 years old and he's carried the ball just 377 times.

My projections for Foster:

296-1273-10, 48-432-2

I know a lot of guys on the boards are still down on Foster, but I think the guy could be great.

 

[Texasmouth]

I have been hyping this guy up since he was first drafted but I just dont know if I would bet on him being healthy for a full season....ever.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

You are dreaming

 

[diesel7982]

Id be INCREDIBLY surprised if they gave him 350 touches and he managed to stay healthy.

 

[Beaumont]

I agree that Foster is a great buy right now ...

Edited to add that his perceived value is quickly rising throughout the last month ...

In an auction he went for 9.25 to me, then we re-started the auction due to technical problems and he went for 12.50 or so to someone else ...

 

[David Yudkin]

Why not Foster . . . or JJones . . . or KJones . . . or SJackson . . . or Rhodes . . .or Bush . . . or Gore . . . or whomever.

Very few RB have ever had seasons like LJ did last year. So on that basis alone the smart money would say Foster is not going to put up Johnson-like numbers.

As for Foster, IIRC Goings put up better numbers over a similar stretch the year before.

I personally don't see Foster as being able to sustain the workload he would need to get that big a workload. He has been hurt every season he's played in the pros and almost ever season in college as well. He's missed 31 games played in 33, so he finally cracked the 50/50 ratio. I'm not sure you can coach health.

As for his production, he's scored a grand total of 7 TD in roughly 450 career touches. He's also had only 7 games of 20+ carries (regular season) in his career, so we have yet to see if he could stay healthy as a featured back (especially when he hasn't been able to in a limited role).

 

[Otis]

The difference is that Deshaun Foster failed time and time again. LJ never failed.

The minute one of these young RBs gets a chance and blows it (or better yet, several chances), odds are you have seen the best of what they've got, and it's all downhill from there.

Book it.

 

[LHUCKS]

more of the same from Deshaun...flashes of brilliance and injuries.

Nothing new here.

 

[nathanbalboa]

The difference is that Deshaun Foster failed time and time again. LJ never failed.

When did he fail? He was either injured or not the starter. Being hurt or not having the opportunity is not failure. The second half of last year was the first time he was both healthy and the starting RB and he didn't fail. If he blows the opportunity this season, you can say that he failed. Claiming he's failed already is not accurate.

 

[Team Legacy]

He has about as good a shot as DeShaun Foster, so why not give him his own thread too...

Seriously though.

 

[KevT]

He looked great against Atlanta last year, other than those 2 games and the Giant game he was okay at best.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

It's too early for this.

 

[Napoleon Dynamite]

The difference is that Deshaun Foster failed time and time again. LJ never failed.

When did he fail? He was either injured or not the starter. Being hurt or not having the opportunity is not failure. The second half of last year was the first time he was both healthy and the starting RB and he didn't fail. If he blows the opportunity this season, you can say that he failed. Claiming he's failed already is not accurate.

Being injury prone=failing in my bookI don't see him getting more then 300 carries even if he is healthy the whole year.

 

[gman8343]

The difference is that Deshaun Foster failed time and time again. LJ never failed.

When did he fail? He was either injured or not the starter. Being hurt or not having the opportunity is not failure. The second half of last year was the first time he was both healthy and the starting RB and he didn't fail. If he blows the opportunity this season, you can say that he failed. Claiming he's failed already is not accurate.

claiming he's one of the most brittle RBs in the league is accurate, though. So far.

 

[Synthesizer]

Almost any starting RB in the league will get 100-130 total yards per game. It's the TDs that make the stud. There's no way Foster gets the 25+ TDs that the Chiefs RBs have been putting up the last few years. **If** he stays healthy he'll put up top 10 RB numbers, but come on, 25 TDs?

 

[LHUCKS]

Almost any starting RB in the league will get 100-130 total yards per game.

 

[Synthesizer]

Almost any starting RB in the league will get 100-130 total yards per game. 

Almost any = 80%Starting RB = 20 touches

I'd be interested in seeing the numbers.

 

[LHUCKS]

Almost any starting RB in the league will get 100-130 total yards per game. 

Almost any = 80%Starting RB = 20 touches

I'd be interested in seeing the numbers.

I count seven RBs that had 1600 yards last year.And every team has a starting RB, your definition seems rather "unique" and arbitrary.

 

[3 Time MVP #4]

I think it's an interesting thought and am thinking about trading for him in a keeper league......he's a 7th round pick from last year, and I see value there. Clearly he has flashes of brilliance and has some upside. I agree the touchdowns were and are a concern but regarding his fragility, the guy did get 165 yards on the ground while 'questionable' against Atlanta and started to average 20 carries from week 12 on....pretty much probable or questionable the whole time.......I'm a gambler and looking in to it.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Almost any starting RB in the league will get 100-130 total yards per game. 

Signed,

Moron who drafted Willis Mcgahee with the 6th pick last year

 

[Chaz]

This is the kind of outside the box thinking that can end up huge.

Not suer where he'll go in a redraft, but if he can be had for a late second, to go along with one of the big three, it's a gamble worth taking (maybe )

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

I own him in 2 dynasty leagues so I just hope this hype is right! But I am not getting my head up until I see consistancy. For those of you like me that got him in 7th round as a Rb 3 or 4 we got a good deal last year regardless and have a chance at saying we got him at a steal deal before long. We will just have to wait and see.

 

[Riffraff]

I shudder at the thought that someone falls for this each year.

Carolina has yet to add their 4th HB for the team (Foster, Shelton, and Robertson). Goings is officially listed as a FB (according to nfl.com).

Whoever the rookie is that they draft, he'll be moved up the FF draftboard due to situation.

 

[simey]

I shudder at the thought that someone falls for this each year.

Carolina has yet to add their 4th HB for the team (Foster, Shelton, and Robertson). Goings is officially listed as a FB (according to nfl.com).

Whoever the rookie is that they draft, he'll be moved up the FF draftboard due to situation.

In today's paper, Fox addresses some things and one is the RB position:Q. A lot of fans wanted you to pursue a big-name running back. Can you explain the decision to re-sign Foster? Going into free agency, we had to choose (from) Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James and DeShaun Foster. After evaluating those three, we went with DeShaun Foster. That's what was best for us. If we didn't sign him, somebody else would have and it would have taken a little extra room off the cap to go sign one of those two other guys. Both those guys are older than DeShaun. Injuries are always a concern with all players. But we think, when he's healthy, he's a young top-of-the-line back.

Q. How does Eric Shelton (who missed his rookie season with an injury) factor in? We've still got to see. We've invested a second-round pick in him. He's a big, physical guy and he spent the year going to our meetings and stuff, and he's worked to get himself mentally and physically ready for this season. He's a guy not a lot of people know about that we hope can make an impact for us.

Q. Are you still looking for another running back? We'll continue to look. If somebody comes available, there are a lot of things that can happen. Somebody might try to unload somebody in a trade, and you've got the draft. I still believe in this league that you build through the draft. We'll continue to look in that area.

Link

 

[nathanbalboa]

I shudder at the thought that someone falls for this each year. Carolina has yet to add their 4th HB for the team (Foster, Shelton, and Robertson). Goings is officially listed as a FB (according to nfl.com).Whoever the rookie is that they draft, he'll be moved up the FF draftboard due to situation.

This is different than every other year with Foster. He's officially the starter heading into the year and is coming of a year where he was healthy and productive. Goings, Shelton and a rookie RB drafted in the middle rounds will not challenge Foster, they'll just add depth. I will gladly snatch up Foster in the late 2nd, early 3rd because owners like you think this is the same siutaiton for Foster as every other year.

 

[Riffraff]

I will gladly snatch up Foster in the late 2nd, early 3rd because owners like you think this is the same siutaiton for Foster as every other year.

Foster in the 2nd/3rd + Goings in the 10th + the rookie higher or lower than Goings depending upon draft position. All yours as your #2 RB.Better you than me. Definitely.

 

[nygiants56]

don't compare DF to LJ, please don't do this!! lol

DF has a lot of 'potential' to be very good, but like it's been said, "eventually potential is another way of saying NEVER having done it"

he's too brittle..very high risk, modest reward..the problem with DF is that he was hurt even in his college days, and that's always been the knock on him...

if i could get him off of waivers or take a late round flyer on him, sure, I'd do it then..but he's not a top 20 RB, IMO, not even close...I wouldn't touch him..I'd let him be someone else's problem..

Ricky Williams still has a chance of being traded, and Carolina was reportedly one of his possible destinations, its a perfect fit for his running style..Shelton is hanging around too, so DF will likely have to split time with him...

DF is the starter until the upcoming draft begins, when Carolina watches a guy like Maroney or White drop to them at 27..

 

[Aaronstory]

It's too early for this.

Blasphemy!!!

 

[simey]

DF is the starter until the upcoming draft begins, when Carolina watches a guy like Maroney or White drop to them at 27..

It will be interesting to see what they do in the first round. In that article today Fox said this about the draft class:Q. As you look ahead at the draft class, what stands out? I think there are a lot of great linebackers. It's one of the better linebacker groups I've seen at the top. Unfortunately, we're not at the top. But it's pretty deep. I like the DB group this year. I don't think the receiver group is as strong as it's been the last couple of years.

 

[Synthesizer]

Almost any starting RB in the league will get 100-130 total yards per game. 

Almost any = 80%Starting RB = 20 touches

I'd be interested in seeing the numbers.

I count seven RBs that had 1600 yards last year.And every team has a starting RB, your definition seems rather "unique" and arbitrary.

You're looking at the full 16 game schedule and projecting 1600 yards. I'm saying that a starting RB will get 100 yards per game and that's nothing special. I count 8 guys who had 1600 yards (Alexander, Barber, L.Johnson, Portis, E.James, Tomlinson, Dunn, Droughns) plus plenty of other guys who averaged close to 100 yards per game.....R.Johnson - 1550 yards in 16 games

T.Jones - 1480 yards in 15 games

W.Parker - 1420 yards in 15 games

L.Jordan - 1590 yards in 14 games

J.Jones - 1200 yards in 12 games

D.Davis - 1200 yards in 11 games

 

[JimmyD]

more of the same from Deshaun...flashes of brilliance and injuries.

Nothing new here.

And I expect to see that brilliance in a preseason game which will only add to his "potential".

 

[David Yudkin]

RB with 1600+ total yards in a season:

2005: 8

2004: 7

2003: 11

2002: 14

2001: 8

 

[Banger]

Foster couldn't beat out a broken down Stephen Davis last year until Davis's legs fell off at the end of the year. I'll let someone else gamble on "this being the year" with Foster. He may break through finally but he won't be on my team unless he's extremely cheap.

 

[Dancing Bear]

I would say that you have conveniently left off the 4 games where Foster barely averaged 3 yards a carry during that 8 game stretch, and 3 out of 4 of those were with 20+ carries.

There is no way that DeShaun Foster produces as you have projected. On top of the fact that he has been stealing the fragile moniker from Fragile Fred. Please review what Johnson has accomplished.

Johnson has started 14 games in the NFL.

As a starter he is averaging these astonishing figures!

Rushes 25.7

Rushing Yards 132.1

Average Yards/ Rush 5.1

Rushing TD's 1.7

Receptions 3.1

Receiving Yards 36.4

Average Yards/ Reception 11.6

Receiving TD's 0.2

Average Fantasy Points 27.6

These numbers are HOF if they can be sustained. Eclipsing all known records along the way.

It is still early to tell completely what the landscape will be there in Carolina, but I don't see him in the same sentence with Larry Johnson. Foster is not even close!

 

[Dancing Bear]

P.S. Forgot to mention that of these 14 games only twice did he not rush for 100 yards even though he eclipsed 100 total yards in all 14!

P.P.S. Please note the 1.9 TD's per game average!

 

[Righetti]

mileage left. He's only 26 years old and he's carried the ball just 377 times.

My projections for Foster:

296-1273-10, 48-432-2

these numbers are not exactly Larry Johnson type numbers..you may want to change your thread title to

DeShaun Foster... this year's Lamont Jordan?

 

[perry147]

don't compare DF to LJ, please don't do this!! lol

DF has a lot of 'potential' to be very good, but like it's been said, "eventually potential is another way of saying NEVER having done it"

he's too brittle..very high risk, modest reward..the problem with DF is that he was hurt even in his college days, and that's always been the knock on him...

if i could get him off of waivers or take a late round flyer on him, sure, I'd do it then..but he's not a top 20 RB, IMO, not even close...I wouldn't touch him..I'd let him be someone else's problem..

Ricky Williams still has a chance of being traded, and Carolina was reportedly one of his possible destinations, its a perfect fit for his running style..Shelton is hanging around too, so DF will likely have to split time with him...

DF is the starter until the upcoming draft begins, when Carolina watches a guy like Maroney or White drop to them at 27..

Comparing DF and LJ makes about a much sense as comparing Peyton and Charlie Frye or better yet Michael Clayton and Randy Moss.

 

[houndirish]

I don't think the projected numbers are at all unrealistic for Foster. Although that still doesn't warrant him a comparison to Larry Johnson. I'm anxiously optimistic that Foster will finally provide those of us who have been patient with him, a full fantasy season as a solid top 12 feature back.

I invested an 11th round selection on him in my initial dynasty draft which made him my 4th RB. I added Nick Goings through waivers. I like Foster's upside going into this season given the Panthers preference to run. I also think his TD numbers will improve given the exit of Stephen Davis. I'll be happy if he supplants Warrick Dunn as my #2. That will give me enough of a return to satisfy my expectations.

 

[Mike]

Its times like these I wish I had DeShaun Foster so I could trade him away

 

[Kit Fisto]

Foster couldn't beat out a broken down Stephen Davis last year until Davis's legs fell off at the end of the year. I'll let someone else gamble on "this being the year" with Foster. He may break through finally but he won't be on my team unless he's extremely cheap.

 

[bocksheesh]

Foster couldn't beat out a broken down Stephen Davis last year until Davis's legs fell off at the end of the year. I'll let someone else gamble on "this being the year" with Foster. He may break through finally but he won't be on my team unless he's extremely cheap.

If the Panthers were as down on Foster as some here would have you believe, why did they give an oft injured RB a new multi-year contract extension in the offseason? Carolina didn't have to do that? And Carolina is not an organization, much like NE, of doing rash personnel moves.I think the Panthers think Foster is going to be fine. Otherwise, they wouldn't have risked the salary cap exposure that comes with a multi-year deal.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Foster couldn't beat out a broken down Stephen Davis last year until Davis's legs fell off at the end of the year. I'll let someone else gamble on "this being the year" with Foster. He may break through finally but he won't be on my team unless he's extremely cheap.

If the Panthers were as down on Foster as some here would have you believe, why did they give an oft injured RB a new multi-year contract extension in the offseason? Carolina didn't have to do that? And Carolina is not an organization, much like NE, of doing rash personnel moves.I think the Panthers think Foster is going to be fine. Otherwise, they wouldn't have risked the salary cap exposure that comes with a multi-year deal.

But then they invest a first rounder in a RB?Seems to be conflicting emotions in Carolina.

 

[Borat]

mileage left. He's only 26 years old and he's carried the ball just 377 times.

My projections for Foster:

296-1273-10, 48-432-2

these numbers are not exactly Larry Johnson type numbers..you may want to change your thread title to

DeShaun Foster... this year's Lamont Jordan Kevan Barlow?

 

[bocksheesh]

Foster couldn't beat out a broken down Stephen Davis last year until Davis's legs fell off at the end of the year. I'll let someone else gamble on "this being the year" with Foster. He may break through finally but he won't be on my team unless he's extremely cheap.

If the Panthers were as down on Foster as some here would have you believe, why did they give an oft injured RB a new multi-year contract extension in the offseason? Carolina didn't have to do that? And Carolina is not an organization, much like NE, of doing rash personnel moves.I think the Panthers think Foster is going to be fine. Otherwise, they wouldn't have risked the salary cap exposure that comes with a multi-year deal.

But then they invest a first rounder in a RB?Seems to be conflicting emotions in Carolina.

Could be. Or could be just that Williams was too good to pass up (which he probably was), they plan to bring him along slowly this year, see how Foster looks, and then have them compete next training camp.It's not entirely dissimilar from Jake Plummer and the Broncos using a high draft pick on a rookie QB. Cutler's their future, but because Denver has a good player in front of him, they can afford to bring Cutler along slowly for a season.Conflicting emotions? Perhaps. But more likely, they like what they have in Foster right now, and like what they'll have in Williams a year from now.

 

[Traders2001]

WHy not .

I f he does nt get injures ( He will keep Williams on the bench ) he could put up great numbers .

I dont have him on any of my teams but he is a gifted RB.

 

[Bizkiteer]

Joe,

Can we get an smoke alarm icon? Some people are smoking some wacky tobaccy and the alarms have to be going off.

 

[Franknbeans]

Foster couldn't beat out a broken down Stephen Davis last year until Davis's legs fell off at the end of the year.  I'll let someone else gamble on "this being the year" with Foster.  He may break through finally but he won't be on my team unless he's extremely cheap.

Actually, John Fox is loyal to veteran players who know the system. That's the reason why he didn't beat out Stephen Davis.

 

[Willowdoc]

Foster couldn't beat out a broken down Stephen Davis last year until Davis's legs fell off at the end of the year. I'll let someone else gamble on "this being the year" with Foster. He may break through finally but he won't be on my team unless he's extremely cheap.

Actually, John Fox is loyal to veteran players who know the system. That's the reason why he didn't beat out Stephen Davis.

Which is one of the great reasons in DeShaun's favor. I am tending to think of him like Fragile Freddy in 2003 or 2004, where for years people said he couldn't play a full season, he did and produced top 8/11 numbers. And DeShaun gets to run behind a much better offensive line.

 

[thayman]

I don't think Foster is going to have LJ numbers. But I do love his value this year. He is a great late pick up, I have him in my big money keeper, if he is ever going to do anything then this is the year. So long as you make sure you get the DeAngelo handcuff your good to go.

 

[nygiants56]

more of the same from Deshaun...flashes of brilliance and injuries.Nothing new here.