Detailed Season Long Stat Projections are LIVE (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

It's early and there will be tons that change between now and August. But we couldn't be more proud of having these available for you on May 2. 

These are our Jason Wood's projections who's been one of our Lead Analysts for years. We'll have more projectors coming soon. Including IDP.

Enjoy.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Including updated Cardinals WR numbers given the DeAndre Hopkins bombshell. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Another one that's going to be interesting is how Pittsburgh's offense shakes out with QB. https://www.footballguys.com/projections/preseason/teams?team=pit&projector=996&profile=p

 

[Dacomish]

I somehow missed this @Joe Bryant - Great stuff, and another tool to help us in upcoming rookie drafts!

 

[Anarchy99]

There are some situations that I find . . . interesting. For example . . .

- The Chiefs lose Tyreek Hill and their passing yardage is projected to go UP.
- The Dolphins add Tyreek Hill and their passing yardage is projected to stay the same.
- Las Vegas added Davante Adams and their passing yardage is projected to go DOWN.
- Kendrick Bourne, who averaged more yards per touch than Deebo Samuel did (and by far was the most efficient WR NE had last year) is projected for 450 FEWER yards this season.
- The Patriots drafted two RB and have James White returning and the NE RB corps is projected to score 60 FEWER fantasy points.
- The Titans lose A.J. Brown and Julio Jones and their passing totals are projected to GO UP.
- The Eagles add WR A.J. Brown and their passing totals are essentially projected to be THE SAME.
- The Saints add Olave and have Thomas coming back (and the team WR projection going UP 100 points) . . . with the QB production DROPPING by 25 points.
- The Jets have Corey Davis and Elijah Moore coming back from injuries, added Garrett Wilson, and should have a healthier Zach Wilson in Year 2 . . . and they pass for FEWER yards.

I haven't really combed the numbers a ton . . . but those sort of made me scratch my head.
 

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

There are some situations that I find . . . interesting. For example . . .

- The Chiefs lose Tyreek Hill and their passing yardage is projected to go UP.
- The Dolphins add Tyreek Hill and their passing yardage is projected to stay the same.
- Las Vegas added Davante Adams and their passing yardage is projected to go DOWN.
- Kendrick Bourne, who averaged more yards per touch than Deebo Samuel did (and by far was the most efficient WR NE had last year) is projected for 450 FEWER yards this season.
- The Patriots drafted two RB and have James White returning and the NE RB corps is projected to score 60 FEWER fantasy points.
- The Titans lose A.J. Brown and Julio Jones and their passing totals are projected to GO UP.
- The Eagles add WR A.J. Brown and their passing totals are essentially projected to be THE SAME.
- The Saints add Olave and have Thomas coming back (and the team WR projection going UP 100 points) . . . with the QB production DROPPING by 25 points.
- The Jets have Corey Davis and Elijah Moore coming back from injuries, added Garrett Wilson, and should have a healthier Zach Wilson in Year 2 . . . and they pass for FEWER yards.

I haven't really combed the numbers a ton . . . but those sort of made me scratch my head.
 

Those are definitely things that make you go …hmmm. 

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

There are some situations that I find . . . interesting. For example . . .

- The Chiefs lose Tyreek Hill and their passing yardage is projected to go UP.
- The Dolphins add Tyreek Hill and their passing yardage is projected to stay the same.
- Las Vegas added Davante Adams and their passing yardage is projected to go DOWN.
- Kendrick Bourne, who averaged more yards per touch than Deebo Samuel did (and by far was the most efficient WR NE had last year) is projected for 450 FEWER yards this season.
- The Patriots drafted two RB and have James White returning and the NE RB corps is projected to score 60 FEWER fantasy points.
- The Titans lose A.J. Brown and Julio Jones and their passing totals are projected to GO UP.
- The Eagles add WR A.J. Brown and their passing totals are essentially projected to be THE SAME.
- The Saints add Olave and have Thomas coming back (and the team WR projection going UP 100 points) . . . with the QB production DROPPING by 25 points.
- The Jets have Corey Davis and Elijah Moore coming back from injuries, added Garrett Wilson, and should have a healthier Zach Wilson in Year 2 . . . and they pass for FEWER yards.

I haven't really combed the numbers a ton . . . but those sort of made me scratch my head.
 

Take a look at Mike Clay's 2022 NFL Projection Guide for a comparison.

https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/22/NFLDK2022_CS_ClayProjections2022.pdf

 

[Joe Bryant]

Take a look at Mike Clay's 2022 NFL Projection Guide for a comparison.

Thanks. Mike's my good friend but let's keep this on our content here. 

All of these projections are constantly evolving. From DeAndre Hopkins changes and much more.

And please keep the feedback coming on what you see with what we're projecting. That's how these polish and evolve. They'll look different next week and next month and for sure in August. Thanks. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

There are some situations that I find . . . interesting. For example . . .

- The Chiefs lose Tyreek Hill and their passing yardage is projected to go UP.
- The Dolphins add Tyreek Hill and their passing yardage is projected to stay the same.
- Las Vegas added Davante Adams and their passing yardage is projected to go DOWN.
- Kendrick Bourne, who averaged more yards per touch than Deebo Samuel did (and by far was the most efficient WR NE had last year) is projected for 450 FEWER yards this season.
- The Patriots drafted two RB and have James White returning and the NE RB corps is projected to score 60 FEWER fantasy points.
- The Titans lose A.J. Brown and Julio Jones and their passing totals are projected to GO UP.
- The Eagles add WR A.J. Brown and their passing totals are essentially projected to be THE SAME.
- The Saints add Olave and have Thomas coming back (and the team WR projection going UP 100 points) . . . with the QB production DROPPING by 25 points.
- The Jets have Corey Davis and Elijah Moore coming back from injuries, added Garrett Wilson, and should have a healthier Zach Wilson in Year 2 . . . and they pass for FEWER yards.

I haven't really combed the numbers a ton . . . but those sort of made me scratch my head.
 

Thanks. Feedback is always a gift and appreciated. We'll continue to evolve all these as we move along. That's just part of the process and why it's much easier to do what others do and release stat projections in July. It's just part of it. Thanks. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Thanks. Feedback is always a gift and appreciated. We'll continue to evolve all these as we move along. That's just part of the process and why it's much easier to do what others do and release stat projections in July. It's just part of it. Thanks. 

There really isn't a right way to do projections. It's really a thankless task, and once injuries start popping up the accuracy of any projections will go right out the window.

Each NFL team usually will have 20 or so players that end up catching passes. But no one wants to see projections for a 7th receiver, a 5th tight end, or a practice squad guy that might get called up for only one game, with those types of players getting projected for 2 receptions for 14 yards. Depending upon the team, the deep depth guys (JAGs) added together could end up with 10-20% of an NFL team's fantasy production. Similarly, in May, it's hard to tell how things will shape up come opening day. I get that. We have no idea who will win camp battles, who else will get added, who will end up getting cut, etc.

Teams like KC lost Hill but added Juju, MVS, and Skyy Moore. Who knows what will happen in KC (I think no Hill = lower total production). Jason projected those 3 newcomers for a combined 185-2430-18. I don't know any better than anyone else in terms of what to expect, but first blush to me that seems high. The Chiefs receivers past Hill combined for 133/1581/11 last season. Certainly Mahomes and Reid will be able to come up with something to keep the offense moving, but IMO Hill made the offense that much better by drawing so much coverage and opening up the field for everyone else.

Just some food for thought . . .

 

[Joe Bryant]

There really isn't a right way to do projections. It's really a thankless task, and once injuries start popping up the accuracy of any projections will go right out the window.

Each NFL team usually will have 20 or so players that end up catching passes. But no one wants to see projections for a 7th receiver, a 5th tight end, or a practice squad guy that might get called up for only one game, with those types of players getting projected for 2 receptions for 14 yards. Depending upon the team, the deep depth guys (JAGs) added together could end up with 10-20% of an NFL team's fantasy production. Similarly, in May, it's hard to tell how things will shape up come opening day. I get that. We have no idea who will win camp battles, who else will get added, who will end up getting cut, etc.

Teams like KC lost Hill but added Juju, MVS, and Skyy Moore. Who knows what will happen in KC (I think no Hill = lower total production). Jason projected those 3 newcomers for a combined 185-2430-18. I don't know any better than anyone else in terms of what to expect, but first blush to me that seems high. The Chiefs receivers past Hill combined for 133/1581/11 last season. Certainly Mahomes and Reid will be able to come up with something to keep the offense moving, but IMO Hill made the offense that much better by drawing so much coverage and opening up the field for everyone else.

Just some food for thought . . .

Thanks. I'm with you, the most "right" way I've found is basically what we're doing. Take your best shot knowing they'll change dramatically as the days and weeks go by. It's sort of like a sculpture as you chisel away here and add back there (can you add to a sculpture?). It starts off not so pretty and then hopefully looks better each day as we get more and more info. 

 

[Stinkin Ref]

There really isn't a right way to do projections. It's really a thankless task, and once injuries start popping up the accuracy of any projections will go right out the window.

Each NFL team usually will have 20 or so players that end up catching passes. But no one wants to see projections for a 7th receiver, a 5th tight end, or a practice squad guy that might get called up for only one game, with those types of players getting projected for 2 receptions for 14 yards. Depending upon the team, the deep depth guys (JAGs) added together could end up with 10-20% of an NFL team's fantasy production. Similarly, in May, it's hard to tell how things will shape up come opening day. I get that. We have no idea who will win camp battles, who else will get added, who will end up getting cut, etc.

Teams like KC lost Hill but added Juju, MVS, and Skyy Moore. Who knows what will happen in KC (I think no Hill = lower total production). Jason projected those 3 newcomers for a combined 185-2430-18. I don't know any better than anyone else in terms of what to expect, but first blush to me that seems high. The Chiefs receivers past Hill combined for 133/1581/11 last season. Certainly Mahomes and Reid will be able to come up with something to keep the offense moving, but IMO Hill made the offense that much better by drawing so much coverage and opening up the field for everyone else.

Just some food for thought . . .

well put....but at least there is something to go off of now and a framework/foundation....then the "changes and adjustments" are what really generate the healthy and important discussions as players move up and down the ranks.....that part of the journey to August is very valuable....

 

[Joe Bryant]

well put....but at least there is something to go off of now and a framework/foundation....then the "changes and adjustments" are what really generate the healthy and important discussions as players move up and down the ranks.....that part of the journey to August is very valuable....

Absolutely GB. It's always a little scary to be one of the first to lay your cards out there but that's just how it is.