**Detroit at Kansas City** (-4.5/52.5) Kickoff-Opening Night! (1 Viewer)

[jon_mx]

Can we talk about the Chiefs going for it on 4th and 25?

My knee jerk reaction was that it was moronic. You’re backed up, got 3 timeouts and 2 minute warning still and it seemed desperate and distrusting of their defense.

Thinking more though, so what? The most important thing in that scenario is having the ball so you can score points.

If you punt, you do not have the ball and need a stop. A first down ends the game. If you go for it and don’t get it, you do not have the ball and need a stop. A first down ends the game.

So, same situation except you sacrifice 40 some yards of field position. But you have Mahomes. This is not the same calculation other teams have the luxury of making. I don’t think Reid much cared whether he would need 3 or 7 to win because he has full confidence in Mahomes. Either way you need a stop and have 2 minutes or so left to work with.

I’m not saying it was the RIGHT decision, but it’s way closer than I’m hearing about today. And I think Reid has long decided that since he has an all timer back there, he would rather lose with the ball in his hands than without.

Obviously, it didn’t work, but it also turned out to be their last chance at scoring points. More I think about it, more I agree with it. It’s not distrust of the defense, it’s massive amounts of trust in Mahomes. Ride or die with your guy. I get it.

My objection to going for it on 4th and 25 was that in the time it took them to run that play, the clock ran down to 2:00. So lets say KC punts and proceeds to force a three-and-out (their only realistic path to victory at that point). They had three TOs. So they could get the ball back with something like 90 seconds left on the clock an no TOs. That's doable, especially for Mahomes. He scored twice against the Bills in that playoff game in less time than that.

But they would have been much better off to give the ball back to DET before the two minute warning. Then they can get the ball back and still have a TO, and they might survive a situation where Detroit gains a first down. I think having that TO in their back pocket is worth more than the very low chance of converting 4th and 25.

Would love to see a 4th down bot analysis of this one.

I disagree. Obviously, it would have improved their WP% if the play had ended at 2:01 rather than 2:00. But you know what would have had far more impact? If they had converted the 4th down. That has to be the priority in that situation. If it takes an extra few seconds of scrambling to improve their chances of converting, I would choose that option every time. As it happened, they ended up with the worst of all possible worlds: no conversion, no extra clock stoppage. But I mostly just view that as bad luck that the play didn't finish a second earlier.

If your argument is that they should have punted because it would have allowed them to ensure the clock would stop before 2:00, that's far more reasonable. Like I said, I probably would have favored punting in that situation regardless, and the clock situation nudges it even further in that direction. But once they decided to go for it, they needed to do whatever it took to convert.

Also, if it had been 4th and 3 and they had run a slow-developing play instead of a quick out, that might have been grounds for criticism. But I doubt many NFL teams have a lot of quick-hit plays that can pick up 25 yards in obvious passing situations.

Even though it is a low percent play to complete, what scared me was a PI or Def. Hold. They cut away to commercial so fast, I was still worried through the whole commercial break that the refs might have thrown a late flag.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Even though it is a low percent play to complete, what scared me was a PI or Def. Hold. They cut away to commercial so fast, I was still worried through the whole commercial break that the refs might have thrown a late flag.

#PTSD

I understand, brother man

 

[markrc99]

Detroit's FG kicker is very suspect and does not have a long leg. Anything outside of 48 yards and they need to punt.

Really? I always make a late cut to add a kicker, usually target guys on improving offenses or indoors. Patterson I felt hit on both. I've read that while his conversion rate wasn't that of others, he also had more attempts from beyond 50yd. Which of course raises the question as to why he was wheeled out there for attempts beyond his effective range. Watched him last night, he didn't get an attempt but his extra points were high & right down the middle. All three were identical.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Even though it is a low percent play to complete, what scared me was a PI or Def. Hold. They cut away to commercial so fast, I was still worried through the whole commercial break that the refs might have thrown a late flag.

#PTSD

I understand, brother man

I kept telling myself -- and I think it was mostly true -- that my anxiety throughout the game last night came less from the Lions' tortured history and more from the guy on the other sideline. When Mahomes was driving to put KC up 10, when he came back on the field after the failed 4th down with 2:30 remaining, only needing to get a couple first downs to be in FG range, I felt pretty sure he would put the dagger in. But I bet any team's fans would have felt the same way

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Detroit's FG kicker is very suspect and does not have a long leg. Anything outside of 48 yards and they need to punt.

Really? I always make a late cut to add a kicker, usually target guys on improving offenses or indoors. Patterson I felt hit on both. I've read that while his conversion rate wasn't that of others, he also had more attempts from beyond 50yd. Which of course raises the question as to why he was wheeled out there for attempts beyond his effective range. Watched him last night, he didn't get an attempt but his extra points were high & right down the middle. All three were identical.

Side note: Is he the first kicker in the modern era to have a uniform number in the 30s? Even amid all the number chaos of recent years, I can't recall seeing another

 

[jon_mx]

Detroit's FG kicker is very suspect and does not have a long leg. Anything outside of 48 yards and they need to punt.

Really? I always make a late cut to add a kicker, usually target guys on improving offenses or indoors. Patterson I felt hit on both. I've read that while his conversion rate wasn't that of others, he also had more attempts from beyond 50yd. Which of course raises the question as to why he was wheeled out there for attempts beyond his effective range. Watched him last night, he didn't get an attempt but his extra points were high & right down the middle. All three were identical.

Side note: Is he the first kicker in the modern era to have a uniform number in the 30s? Even amid all the number chaos of recent years, I can't recall seeing another

Well there is always Number 90.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Can we talk about the Chiefs going for it on 4th and 25?

Not sure what the numbers show (and the 4th Down Bot appears to be dead), but I suspect it's one of those things where their WP% was already like 2% and maybe this moved it a point in either direction. I probably wouldn't have made that call, especially with the way KC's WRs were playing, but I don't think it mattered a ton.

Meanwhile, Campbell made a couple calls I disagreed with, but the one I was proudest of, even if it didn't work out, was going for that 4th and 2 in an attempt to ice the game. It drives me nuts when teams willingly give the ball back to the other team -- especially when their opponent has a future HoF QB -- with a chance to win the game. We used to seen punts in situations like that all the time. It's not even really an analytics argument. It's just common sense that the Lions should do whatever they can to avoid giving the ball back to Mahomes

Before 4th down bots and social media analytics rants, remember when Belichick went for it on 4th and 1 or 2 deep in his own territory in the 4th quarter against the Colts? This was exactly why. Peyton Manning was on the other side and Belichick knew that Manning would score on his defense, which had not played well in the second half, if he got the ball. The playcall was bad and the play didn't work, so he got roasted, but his rationale for going for it was correct.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Detroit's FG kicker is very suspect and does not have a long leg. Anything outside of 48 yards and they need to punt.

Really? I always make a late cut to add a kicker, usually target guys on improving offenses or indoors. Patterson I felt hit on both. I've read that while his conversion rate wasn't that of others, he also had more attempts from beyond 50yd. Which of course raises the question as to why he was wheeled out there for attempts beyond his effective range. Watched him last night, he didn't get an attempt but his extra points were high & right down the middle. All three were identical.

Side note: Is he the first kicker in the modern era to have a uniform number in the 30s? Even amid all the number chaos of recent years, I can't recall seeing another

I don't.

I do remember that Bob Parsons, punter for the Bears from 1972 to 1983, wore #86 because he was also a tight end. https://www.chicagobears.com/news/former-bears-punter-tight-end-parson-passes-away

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Can we talk about the Chiefs going for it on 4th and 25?

Not sure what the numbers show (and the 4th Down Bot appears to be dead), but I suspect it's one of those things where their WP% was already like 2% and maybe this moved it a point in either direction. I probably wouldn't have made that call, especially with the way KC's WRs were playing, but I don't think it mattered a ton.

Meanwhile, Campbell made a couple calls I disagreed with, but the one I was proudest of, even if it didn't work out, was going for that 4th and 2 in an attempt to ice the game. It drives me nuts when teams willingly give the ball back to the other team -- especially when their opponent has a future HoF QB -- with a chance to win the game. We used to seen punts in situations like that all the time. It's not even really an analytics argument. It's just common sense that the Lions should do whatever they can to avoid giving the ball back to Mahomes

Before 4th down bots and social media analytics rants, remember when Belichick went for it on 4th and 1 or 2 deep in his own territory in the 4th quarter against the Colts? This was exactly why. Peyton Manning was on the other side and Belichick knew that Manning would score on his defense, which had not played well in the second half, if he got the ball. The playcall was bad and the play didn't work, so he got roasted, but his rationale for going for it was correct.

People always say this, but it was a quick out to Kevin Faulk that they had run with success before, and if Faulk hadn't momentarily bobbled the ball, his forward progress would have given him the first.

Reminds me of after the Pats-Falcons Super Bowl, when people were roasting Shanahan for calling too many pass plays with a lead. Except on the play that resulted in a strip sack of Ryan, he actually had Taylor Gabriel running free behind the secondary, and the only reason they didn't score a game-sealing TD was because Devonta Freeman totally whiffed the block on Hightower. Sometimes your process is right, your playcall is right, but guys just don't execute.

(Agree with your broader point that the Belichick call might as well have occurred on a different planet. People's brains exploded like they had just seen an alley-oop for the first time. These days it might be called "gutsy", but everyone would instantly understand why they did it.)

 

[BobbyLayne]

I'm about to finish my second rewatch (third viewing)

Casey Neistat used to have side by side monitors in his work loft running Godfather I & Godfather II on a continuous loop

I might do that with last night's game and Week 18 at Lambeau



sans audio, naturally....CC on loop would be akin to waterboarding myself

 

[Statorama]

Hat tip to anyone that had the Lions ML - big huevos paid off.

 

[rockaction]

but everyone would instantly understand why they did it

No, they wouldn't. And you do this every year, positing declaratives when EPA and bots and all that are still a wildly inexact science. The only way the Falcons let the Pats get back in the game is not running the play clock down and the only way the Colts come back in that game is Belichick's hubris.

How does it feel repeating the same wrong things every year?

 

[Stoneworker]

I'm still amazed at how many Lions fans were in the stands last night.

Sure, maybe in LA, or AZ or Tampa there might be a good showing.

But Arrowhead coming right off a super bowl win? I always thought that place was an impenetrable fortress like Lambeau.

The fever is definitely high in Detroit

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

but everyone would instantly understand why they did it

No, they wouldn't. And you do this every year, positing declaratives when EPA and bots and all that are still a wildly inexact science. The only way the Falcons let the Pats get back in the game is not running the play clock down and the only way the Colts come back in that game is Belichick's hubris.

How does it feel repeating the same wrong things every year?

I don’t know why you feel the need to constantly get so personal with me, but honestly, if I ever found myself getting worked up over what a stranger posted in a fantasy football forum, I would put that person on ignore. Then I'd log off and go do something outside. For my sake, not theirs.

And feel free to skip the part where you come back the next day and apologize for getting so angry -- which you do every single time. I'm not offended, because I don't care what you (or anyone else on this forum) thinks about me. Because you're all a bunch of strangers who don't know me. You could think I was the biggest idiot who ever lived, or the smartest person in the world, and it wouldn't make the slightest difference in my life.

It's weird, because for the 364 days out of every year when you're not being irrationally vitriolic toward me, I like reading your stuff, and I mostly forget that you're the guy who hates me for some inexplicable reason.

Anyway, I hope this will be the last time you blow up at me, but I promise you this will be the last time I acknowledge it in any way. Happy to engage with you on football, or Covid, or whatever else, but if you feel the urge to tell me I'm a complete moron, your time will be better spent going outside and farting into the wind

 

[rockaction]

Anyway, I hope this will be the last time you blow up at me, but I promise you this will be the last time I acknowledge it in any way

Wow. I need to watch that. That was not the tone I intended. This is not a mood-adjusted apology or apology way after the fact. It's just...well you take it for what it is. I really need to think before I attempt any tone that isn't totally on-point. I'm not mad at all, and even by way of disagreeing with you, was contradicting Pip which I rarely do.

That you feel singled out is my fault entirely from the past. That last question was best left unsaid. It's a pound-the-table type thing, and we're not good enough friends to do that, I guess. Please carry on and don't let me interrupt your day.

 

[BobbyLayne]

This tweet sums it up for Detroit fans

Was in group text last night with lifelong die-hard Lions fans.

Exchange after KC failed on final fourth down with about 1:00 on clock… [sic - obvs means after Monty made the 1st]

Me: “Congrats”

Them: “not yet!”

Me: “Even Lions can’t eff up a victory formation”

Them: “Stupider sh*t has happened to us”

This is the essence of being a Lions fan. Brighter days seem here. Happy for all those people waking up in state of Michigan this morning.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Anyway, I hope this will be the last time you blow up at me, but I promise you this will be the last time I acknowledge it in any way

Wow. I need to watch that. That was not the tone I intended. This is not a mood-adjusted apology or apology way after the fact. It's just...well you take it for what it is. I really need to think before I attempt any tone that isn't totally on-point. I'm not mad at all, and even by way of disagreeing with you, was contradicting Pip which I rarely do.

That you feel singled out is my fault entirely from the past. That last question was best left unsaid. It's a pound-the-table type thing, and we're not good enough friends to do that, I guess. Please carry on and don't let me interrupt your day.

Lesson: You won't get in trouble if you don't contradict me.

 

[rockaction]

Lesson: You won't get in trouble if you don't contradict me.

Lol. That came out funny.

 

[kutta]

This tweet sums it up for Detroit fans

Was in group text last night with lifelong die-hard Lions fans.

Exchange after KC failed on final fourth down with about 1:00 on clock… [sic - obvs means after Monty made the 1st]

Me: “Congrats”

Them: “not yet!”

Me: “Even Lions can’t eff up a victory formation”

Them: “Stupider sh*t has happened to us”

This is the essence of being a Lions fan. Brighter days seem here. Happy for all those people waking up in state of Michigan this morning.

I was in a sports bar in Phoenix with my Lions gear on. There were about 10 other Lions dudes there. And right at that point we all looked at each other and kind of did the two hand half wave calm down thing. None of us celebrated until the clock expired.

 

[BobbyLayne]

This tweet sums it up for Detroit fans

Was in group text last night with lifelong die-hard Lions fans.

Exchange after KC failed on final fourth down with about 1:00 on clock… [sic - obvs means after Monty made the 1st]

Me: “Congrats”

Them: “not yet!”

Me: “Even Lions can’t eff up a victory formation”

Them: “Stupider sh*t has happened to us”

This is the essence of being a Lions fan. Brighter days seem here. Happy for all those people waking up in state of Michigan this morning.

I was in a sports bar in Phoenix with my Lions gear on. There were about 10 other Lions dudes there. And right at that point we all looked at each other and kind of did the two hand half wave calm down thing. None of us celebrated until the clock expired.

We had 10 people in our 1-bedroom apartment (NYC) - wifey absolutely killed it with an awesome spread (brisket, kabobs, meatballs, ribs, shrimp, couple salads. No other Lions fans....Bucs, Commanders, Eagles, Jets, Giants and Pats fans. But every one of them calls Detroit their second favorite team bc they all love Dan Campbell.

Plus....I am ridiculous, so much of my identity IRL centers around caring about this franchise. It was great to have so many close friends there supporting me (we sent out Save The Date texts in June, everyone was looking forward to the dinner party.) Made me feel so great everyone turned up.

Everyone stood the entire fourth quarter, people were pacing around, one dude kept popping outside to chain smoke & watch on his phone, it was surreal man. After Monty made that last first down everyone went bananas.

I sat in my leather recliner for 5 hours trying to calm down - didn't get to sleep until past 5 a.m. Could not get enough of highlights, interviews, Reddit, whatever man; it was like I was a crack addict and needed that fix lol. All day friends have been texting or face timing. Pure adrenaline the last 23 hours on maybe 3.5 hours sleep.

Wifey and I are going to Inner Harbor for the weekend Week 7 to watch the Ravens game - my first in person Lions game since I moved here in 1999.

 

[rockaction]

It was great to have so many close friends there supporting me (we sent out Save The Date texts in June, everyone was looking forward to the dinner party.) Made me feel so great everyone turned up.

This just floors it, BL. Good for you and glad you were able to enjoy it.

 

[BobbyLayne]

AMON...did he got three pumps on that celebration?!

Two

St Brown said on his podcast today the ref told Dan Campbell “he was one pump away from getting a flag”