**Detroit at Kansas City** (-4.5/52.5) Kickoff-Opening Night! (2 Viewers)

[Mr.Pack]

Isn't defensive holding an automatic first down?

Thought the same

I’m confused by the decline

Same lions different year. They also, back in the day of Sudden Death OT decided to kick instead of receive.

Again, I believe analytics say 2nd and 1 is better than 1st and 10. But let's not start that debate, we had a massive thread on it years ago.

I’ll have to look for that thread because there’s really is no good reason to risk a turnover to get one yard there.

It did go to 2nd and 2 not sure if that’s a difference but you do hear 2nd and 1 called the best Down in football

Even if that’s true, why would you risk a turnover to get a 1st Down that you just turned down? Mind boggling.

 

[jon_mx]

BTW........LaPorta is a top 5 TE.

 

[Snoopy]

also, either the federal govnt or the nfl needs to figure out a way for the day after the first official game of the season to be a damn holiday

They are still working on day after the Super Bowl.

Though Presidents Day is now frequently after Super Bowl Sunday.

 

[travdogg]

Underrated thing, while he was pretty quiet in the 2nd half, Amon-Ra was still maybe the Lions best player, opened up a ton of holes in the running game, even lining up at FB a couple times. I've said it before, but man, he's the new Hines Ward, great pass catcher, and I would argue the best WR in the NFL at everything that isn't pass catching.

Yeah, he is a dawg. Going to have a huge year.

Honestly, as an all-around WR, I think Jefferson, Hill, and Adams are probably the only better in the NFL. I'll take Amon-Ra's all-around game over what guys like Chase and Diggs bring.

 

[rockaction]

I'll take Amon-Ra's all-around game over what guys like Chase and Diggs bring.

 

[rockaction]

Chase wins every route he runs on the route tree, and Amon-Ra can't even line up outside. I mean, c'mon now. That's silly.

 

[Mr.Pack]

Isn't defensive holding an automatic first down?

Thought the same

I’m confused by the decline

Same lions different year. They also, back in the day of Sudden Death OT decided to kick instead of receive.

Again, I believe analytics say 2nd and 1 is better than 1st and 10. But let's not start that debate, we had a massive thread on it years ago.

I’ll have to look for that thread because there’s really is no good reason to risk a turnover to get one yard there.

Absolutely there is. You could get 2 free shots to go deep and then just do a sneak for 1 yard afterwards if you happen to miss your free shots.

Wait what? Take the first down and you can still go deep and have four more tries.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Can't believe it took that long to call that penalty. Dude was dropping out of his stance half a count early all night long. Saw it in the first quarter

The timing was *chef's kiss*

 

[jon_mx]

I'll take Amon-Ra's all-around game over what guys like Chase and Diggs bring.

With Goff as the QB, every day of the week. With Burrow, not so much.

 

[Mongidig]

Can you believe Gibbs didn't get the ball more? Lions win by 4 tds of they give him all of Montgomery's touches.

I don’t understand why teams limit their stud rookies to start the season. Does he not know the play book? There has to be a logical explanation. He looks explosive. I’m sure there is more to it than what we see.

 

[IHEARTFF]

At least Moore and Toney didn’t eat **** in the Super Bowl. KC will be fine when they get their 2 future HOFs back on the field.

Both teams should be much better come playoff time.

 

[travdogg]

Chase wins every route he runs on the route tree, and Amon-Ra can't even line up outside. I mean, c'mon now. That's silly.

Doesn't need to. Neither does Cooper Kupp, who I'd also take Amon-Ra over, though obviously health plays a role there.

I would be curious to see Chase with Goff. I've kinda thought for 2 years that Chase and especially Higgins are both sorta goosed by Burrow, who is unquestionably a top-3 QB.

 

[Deamon]

Isn't defensive holding an automatic first down?

Thought the same

I’m confused by the decline

Same lions different year. They also, back in the day of Sudden Death OT decided to kick instead of receive.

Again, I believe analytics say 2nd and 1 is better than 1st and 10. But let's not start that debate, we had a massive thread on it years ago.

I’ll have to look for that thread because there’s really is no good reason to risk a turnover to get one yard there.

Absolutely there is. You could get 2 free shots to go deep and then just do a sneak for 1 yard afterwards if you happen to miss your free shots.

Wait what? Take the first down and you can still go deep and have four more tries.

You can't still go deep and have 4 more times. If you go deep twice and miss, then it's 3rd and 10. If you do it on 2nd and 1, then you can get an easy yard on 4th down.

Anyways, this is a long convo/debate that is discussed all over boards/reddit/twitter/etc. I believe the numbers show 2nd and 9 is better.

There's a reason Campbell declined it, and was probably advised to decline it by his stats guys.

 

[rockaction]

With Goff as the QB, every day of the week. With Burrow, not so much.

Team-specific things are indeed team-specific, but no way is Amon-Ra a better receiver or bring more to the table than Chase does all things constant. I watch Chase every week due to dynasty. It's not even close, really. We're talking 4.38 vs. over 4.6 and a guy who still hasn't proven he can line up on the wing.

People love Amon-Ra's game. Mad respect to those who are in the know and give respect to both, but Chase is a no-doubter when it comes to route tree and versatility.

 

[BobbyLayne]

We kneeled it out in Arrowhead

wow

 

[Deamon]

Isn't defensive holding an automatic first down?

Thought the same

I’m confused by the decline

Same lions different year. They also, back in the day of Sudden Death OT decided to kick instead of receive.

Again, I believe analytics say 2nd and 1 is better than 1st and 10. But let's not start that debate, we had a massive thread on it years ago.

I’ll have to look for that thread because there’s really is no good reason to risk a turnover to get one yard there.

It did go to 2nd and 2 not sure if that’s a difference but you do hear 2nd and 1 called the best Down in football

Yep.

 

[msudaisy26]

Just a few takes before I got to bed that no one seems to be talking about.

Those Chief wrs am I right. Time to trade for one or even sign one off the street.

Andy Reid needs to be on the hot seat. I mean what has he done in the last 6 months.

Can you imagine how good the Lions be with a real QB? Maybe Carson Wentz is available?

Can you believe Gibbs didn't get the ball more? Lions win by 4 tds of they give him all of Montgomery's touches.

Good to have you and thirty basketball teams around, teech. Oh, that spelling is for you, too.

Thanks bro.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Really wanted to draft Skyy Moore but he went like two rounds ahead of ADP. Haven’t been this happy to miss out on a guy I was targeting since… Allen Robinson last year

 

[Deamon]

I’ll have to look for that thread because there’s really is no good reason to risk a turnover to get one yard there.

Great topic. Let me pose it a different way.

Our practical goal is to extend the drive with more first downs until eventually score. So one way to look at it would be, what are the odds of extending the drive with different down and distance. Using some dated data that looked at this specifically, but going with it for sake of argument.

From 2002 to 2006, 66% of the time, the downs starting with a 1st and 10 ultimately resulted in another first down or a TD. So we could ask, how many yards to go on 2nd down gives us greater than that 66% chance of gaining a 1st down or TD? The answer from the same data set was 5.5 yards. So all other things being equal, 2nd and 5 is more likely to see your drive extended another set of downs than a 1st and 10 is. But 2nd and 6 is less likely. (For 3rd down, 1.5 yards was the 66% success rate break even point.)

Though we have to look at what we end up with. Let's say we only get 1 yard on 2nd down. Now we're 1st and 10 at the same yardline as our other choice and we still face those same odds of extending the drive. But it's also true we might pick up more than 1 yard in which case our 1st and 10 occurs further up the field and is preferable if achieved.

One can argue 2nd and 1 (or inches)is the best possible situation (other than 1st and short) for a number of reasons. The difference between 1st and 10 and 2nd and 10 is a lot worse than the difference between 2nd and 1 and 3rd and 1. Which means 2nd and 1 is a great chance to take a shot downfield, where the QB can be told to play it safe and throw it away if it isn't there. The defense is in a tough spot having to defend against the short gain, which may increase the chances of a favorable matchup. And if they don't stack the line enough the play can be changed to an even higher chance of picking up the 1st with a run.

That is all subjective though. My gut on that is I'd rather have the 2nd down. Others have mentioned, the best way to look at it is probably expected points. Looks at the situation like this one suggest that gaining 9 yards on first down ultimately results in more expected points on average than gaining 10 yards on first down.

Incidentally this is a different look by the same author that I got the 1st and 10 equates to 2nd and 5.5 based on success rate from. It's interesting to see the expected points for a 10 yard gain on first down on that graph are about equal to a gain on 1st down that leaves you with 2nd and 5 which further supports that part.

 

[rockaction]

I just put Kadarius on the trading block in one league.

I asked for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

"I can haz all the picks, no?" was my message to the league.

What a luboon.

 

[rockaction]

I can't believe I started that guy. I figured I'd get some yardage for a return yardage league.

Nope, not when you've got Richie James, hair extraordinaire frere declaire nucleaire guerre.

 

[kutta]

Who cares about no Kelce and no blah blah blah and dropped passes and blah blah blah.
There’s no way the Lions win games like this in the past. To go into Arrowhead on opening night in prime time and end the game in victory formation? Damn…

 

[Zeppelin]

Who cares about no Kelce and no blah blah blah and dropped passes and blah blah blah.
There’s no way the Lions win games like this in the past. To go into Arrowhead on opening night in prime time and end the game in victory formation? Damn…

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Who cares about no Kelce and no blah blah blah and dropped passes and blah blah blah.
There’s no way the Lions win games like this in the past. To go into Arrowhead on opening night in prime time and end the game in victory formation? Damn…

It’s a good win.

One they don’t get if KC receivers catch even 1/2 those passes.

Both of these things can can be true.

 

[Judge Smails]

Toney had the Lions on the money line. Man he was bad

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

https://x.com/bigduke50/status/1617273945786392579?s=46&t=ECDRicIHzJUttelOAeHwJw

 

[Zeppelin]

Who cares about no Kelce and no blah blah blah and dropped passes and blah blah blah.
There’s no way the Lions win games like this in the past. To go into Arrowhead on opening night in prime time and end the game in victory formation? Damn…

It’s a good win.

One they don’t get if KC receivers catch even 1/2 those passes.

Both of these things can can be true.

They don't have a chance to drop those passes if they call even half of the holding and false start penalties that they didn't call.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Who cares about no Kelce and no blah blah blah and dropped passes and blah blah blah.
There’s no way the Lions win games like this in the past. To go into Arrowhead on opening night in prime time and end the game in victory formation? Damn…

It’s a good win.

One they don’t get if KC receivers catch even 1/2 those passes.

Both of these things can can be true.

They don't have a chance to drop those passes if they call even half of the holding and false start penalties that they didn't call.

It wasn’t holding.

At the time I thought it was. I was wrong.

https://x.com/bigduke50/status/1617273945786392579?s=46&t=ECDRicIHzJUttelOAeHwJw

 

[need2know]

The king is dead!

 

[Da Franchise]

You Pacheco owners keep your heads high.

Behind Kelce he’s the only consistent thing in this offense.

He’s every bit as jaggy as the other jaggy JAGs.

 

[kutta]

Who cares about no Kelce and no blah blah blah and dropped passes and blah blah blah.
There’s no way the Lions win games like this in the past. To go into Arrowhead on opening night in prime time and end the game in victory formation? Damn…

It’s a good win.

One they don’t get if KC receivers catch even 1/2 those passes.

Both of these things can can be true.

Doesn’t matter. Those of us who have rooted for the Lions since the Lyndon Johnson administration just don’t see wins this big. Ever.

So, I don’t care if the Lions won it or the Chiefs lost it.

The Lions won a huge game. Let’s celebrate.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Who cares about no Kelce and no blah blah blah and dropped passes and blah blah blah.
There’s no way the Lions win games like this in the past. To go into Arrowhead on opening night in prime time and end the game in victory formation? Damn…

It’s a good win.

One they don’t get if KC receivers catch even 1/2 those passes.

Both of these things can can be true.

They don't have a chance to drop those passes if they call even half of the holding and false start penalties that they didn't call.

It wasn’t holding.

At the time I thought it was. I was wrong.

https://x.com/bigduke50/status/1617273945786392579?s=46&t=ECDRicIHzJUttelOAeHwJw

That’s a good explanation from Duke Manyweather. He’s got an elite training program down in Texas, Penei Sewell and Colby Sorsdal (Lions rookie OL) both worked with him. The list of elite OL he has worked with is long & distinguished.

HOWEVER, Taylor is also setting way further back, his helmet is supposed to be in line with Creed Humphrey’s hind end. That and a lot of clutching & grabbing that could have been called, but we knew going in this crew calls way less penalties than average so whatever.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Kansas City went 0/7 on 3rd down in the second half, 0/1 on 4th. Call it whatever you like; Detroit’s defense held Patrick Mahomes to 226 yards and had a pick 6. Go ahead and blame it on his receivers, nobody cares.

We beat the Super Bowl champs on banner raising night. It’s a big deal. Nobody cares how ugly it was. We got a lot to clean up, so do they. We found a way to win while not playing our best game.

Good teams find a way to close it out. Detroit has a good team, full stop.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Past Lions teams would have definitely found a way to lose that game. This one found a way to win it.

 

[Da Franchise]

Kansas City went 0/7 on 3rd down in the second half, 0/1 on 4th. Call it whatever you like; Detroit’s defense held Patrick Mahomes to 226 yards and had a pick 6. Go ahead and blame it on his receivers, nobody cares.

We beat the Super Bowl champs on banner raising night. It’s a big deal. Nobody cares how ugly it was. We got a lot to clean up, so do they. We found a way to win while not playing our best game.

Good teams find a way to close it out. Detroit has a good team, full stop.

Yes. Congrats on the win. Classic letdown game challenge is pending for the home opener but if you get past it, lots of wins to stack.

Lions are good. Can they overcome Philly and SF? Sorry, I don’t see it. Full stop.

 

[Donnybrook]

I am a little surprised that more people aren't upset with the 4th and 25. I guess AR is infallible at this point.

 

[travdogg]

I am a little surprised that more people aren't upset with the 4th and 25. I guess AR is infallible at this point.

That's very true. Especially after the false start (about time, Taylor should have had about 40 false start calls in that Jags/Chargers debacle last season) it was almost like they just said screw it, Mahomes wins it here or we lose. Very shaky play calling, and one can only wonder if replacing Bienemy with Nagy could be a problem. That end around to Toney was way past the cute/stupid line, and the one where the TE took the snap was asinine. It was almost like KC didn't take this game seriously, like the Lions are an auto win, which newsflash KC, they obviously aren't. Bad play calling, bad performance, and a lot of questions about where this team is right now.

Again, I'll give Detroit some credit, they just beat the defending champs in their own building, THAT MATTERS, but I also think the Lions didn't even really play all that well. The Lions offense looked very sluggish against an average D missing its top guy. The defense looked improved (my guy Hutchinson was seemingly all over the field, and Campbell/Branch both made impacts) but if Toney catches 2 of his 3 drops, that's probably a 14-point swing.

Fun stat I saw, Toney had a -2 EPA/target, essentially meaning KC lost 2 points every time they threw to him. Truly one of the worst games a WR has ever played. I don't think he'll be cut, but boy, they need to do something. This game can't be waived away as having Kelce will fix everything, this is a team that just doesn't have enough weapons. I instantly thought of Mike Evans as a trade target, but another name that comes to mind (and one on an actively tanking team with a new front office) is Hollywood Brown.

But overall, my biggest takeaway, is I'm just glad football is back.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

if über homer to all, Chris awful collingsworth, is going on and on about the RT going early on EVERY play. and lining up offsides on EVERY play. maybe that dude should have had more than 1 flag . just ridiculous

 

[BobbyLayne]

Patrick Mahomes was not sacked on any of his 17 pressures in Week 1.

Mahomes has avoided a sack on 38-consecutive pressures dating back last season's AFC Championship, the longest streak of any QB over the last six seasons.

***********

Hutchinson was PFF’s highest graded EDGE (90.5) weeks 14-18 last year. Had 4 pressures four times. Week 1 2023 he had 6 pressures, 3 QB hits. Mahomes went 2-6 with 2 throwaways on those 6 pressures.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Patrick Mahomes was not sacked on any of his 17 pressures in Week 1.

Mahomes has avoided a sack on 38-consecutive pressures dating back last season's AFC Championship, the longest streak of any QB over the last six seasons.

***********

Hutchinson was PFF’s highest graded EDGE (90.5) weeks 14-18 last year. Had 4 pressures four times. Week 1 2023 he had 6 pressures, 3 QB hits. Mahomes went 2-6 with 2 throwaways on those 6 pressures.

See the post above yours.

ridiculous.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Well Lions fans, we finally have a good team with a good coach and a good GM. This is a great start

 

[BobbyLayne]

Patrick Mahomes was not sacked on any of his 17 pressures in Week 1.

Mahomes has avoided a sack on 38-consecutive pressures dating back last season's AFC Championship, the longest streak of any QB over the last six seasons.

***********

Hutchinson was PFF’s highest graded EDGE (90.5) weeks 14-18 last year. Had 4 pressures four times. Week 1 2023 he had 6 pressures, 3 QB hits. Mahomes went 2-6 with 2 throwaways on those 6 pressures.

See the post above yours.

ridiculous.

I think the Lions may have made a choice not to complain about it. They could definitely tell run vs pass based on where he was lining up, and I think that paid off down the stretch. Jawaan Taylor was tipping off the plays - on run blocking plays he was lined next to the RG.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Well Lions fans, we finally have a good team with a good coach and a good GM. This is a great start

our guests left almost 4 hours ago and I'm just now finally ready to lay down and sleep

that was exhausting lol

Spoiler: believers are kind of goofy

and most of you will think this is weird (it is) but I missed the pick 6 because we decided to have a prayer meeting during halftime....what with people sharing about what they're carrying around every person deciding they needed to pray the game didn't come back on until there was about 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. I immediately went into the bedroom and handed out my old Lions jerseys - a Stafford 9, Slay 23, Swift 32, Hockenson 88 - and made the Jets, Eagles, Pats and Bucs fans who were not wearing Honolulu blue put 'em on for the rest of the game.

man was this a fun night!!!!

WE WERE BUILT FOR THIS

- MCDC locker room speech

 

[kface]

congrats to the lions fans for sure. Seems like it's been a long time since they have had a big win like this

That being said it feels like almost a dirty win (I know a win is a win is a win) but there wasn't a lot in that game that made me feel like they were deserving the win. KC made so many errors

 

[BobbyLayne]

Patrick Mahomes was 2/12 with 0 TD and 1 INT when targeting WRs in the 2nd half vs. the Lions

• Kadarius Toney: 0/4, INT
• Skyy Moore: 0/3 (note - 30 routes run was more than Rice, Ross & Toney combined)
• Justin Watson: 0/2
• Rashee Rice: 0/1
• y Richie James: 1/1
• Justyn Ross: 1/1

congrats to the lions fans for sure. Seems like it's been a long time since they have had a big win like this

That being said it feels like almost a dirty win (I know a win is a win is a win) but there wasn't a lot in that game that made me feel like they were deserving the win. KC made so many errors

It was an ugly win. Lot to clean up, for sure.

But I just checked the standings and looks like ugly wins count the same as flawless ones.

You have to overcome adversity to win in the NFL. It doesn't have to be perfect. Campbell said in his presser "if you give up 3 chunk plays in a row but find a way to create a turnover on the 4th play, that's winning football. You can't worry about the 3 chunk plays bc you gotta keep your head in the game - the next play might be the one that turns the game around. That's resiliency. That's what this team is built for."

Detroit came into this game expecting to win. They weren't surprised by this outcome. Do they have room for improvement. lololol oh boy do they ever. But make no mistake, they have a talented roster. This was no fluke. They've built something the right way for the first time in my life, and the brand new Lions find a way to win.

SOL would have found a way to lose. This team is not the SOL.

Dub is a dub.

 

[TartanLion]

Yeah will take ANY form of win on road in Arrowhead in the season opener. Somehow I think there will be other games this season where we will look better

 

[FairWarning]

Underrated thing, while he was pretty quiet in the 2nd half, Amon-Ra was still maybe the Lions best player, opened up a ton of holes in the running game, even lining up at FB a couple times. I've said it before, but man, he's the new Hines Ward, great pass catcher, and I would argue the best WR in the NFL at everything that isn't pass catching.

Yeah, he is a dawg. Going to have a huge year.

Honestly, as an all-around WR, I think Jefferson, Hill, and Adams are probably the only better in the NFL. I'll take Amon-Ra's all-around game over what guys like Chase and Diggs bring.

I would take him over Diggs, probably not Chase.

The KC offense doesn’t look the same since Hill left. none of those b-level FA signings scare defenses. They won a title last year, but teams are catching up.

 

[Moonlight]

Yes you do.

It's easy to do that right now. They won, but they didn't look good. Sorry not sorry. At all.

H

congrats to the lions fans for sure. Seems like it's been a long time since they have had a big win like this

That being said it feels like almost a dirty win (I know a win is a win is a win) but there wasn't a lot in that game that made me feel like they were deserving the win. KC made so many errors

Late in the 4th quarter which team scored a TD and made first downs? Which team made the defensive stops?
That’s when most NFL games are decided.

 

[Wrigley]

KC loves it’s fast Wrs

Maybe they should love some guys that can catch

 

[Dr. Octopus]

BTW........LaPorta is a top 5 TE.

He’s No. 1 right now.