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DFS Scandals BEGIN - "INSIDER "TRADING" " (1 Viewer)

eoMMan said:
Sammy3469 said:
eoMMan said:
Super computers are creating lineups?
Maybe not super computers, but the top guys all use complex projection systems and also algorithms to try to figure out underplayed players. They then enter hundreds/thousands of contests a day using scripts that have a direct interface with the DFS site.

Is it possible that nothing nefarious is occurring...sure, but as online poker showed, if there is money at stake not all the players and/or sites may be on the up and up.
Please elaborate on "complex projection systems".Yes, I'm fully aware of scripts and entering tons of contests. That doesn't guarantee a ton of great lineups.
You can't be this dense.A DFS player with inside information can see not only who the most picked players are, but also the ones that are undervalued with the opportunity to give +EV relative to their purchase price. If you have the same lineup as 10,000 other jagoffs, you're not winning anything. If you zag where everyone else is zigging, then your entry stands out as having the opportunity to make BOATLOADS.

As ever, IT = INFO, and there's no expiration date for it.
Settle down, Beavis.

I'm asking about these "complex projections" that the professionals use.....not the ones with inside information.....of course they will have an advantage.
I personally have a complex projection system. Doesn't everyone?

A lot of DFS pros don't do their own projections in every sport. They use projections from a number of subscriptions sites, including Footballguys.

 
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eoMMan said:
Sammy3469 said:
eoMMan said:
bagger said:
Doug B said:
cstu said:
Most gamblers only care about winning. HTH.
Understood -- but one minnows learned of the scripting and the guys with 10,000 entries ... what kept them around?

At least Powerball asks only for a nominal sum for an astronomical chance at stupid money ... is that the same ethic at play with DFS? Minnows don't really care if they have a decent shot?
just read the threads in the shark pool.They:

1. Don't believe algorithms help and that they are smarter than computers

2. Don't care because they are having fun

3. Think their absurdly small sample size of success is replicable over the long term against super computers.
Super computers are creating lineups?
Maybe not super computers, but the top guys all use complex projection systems and also algorithms to try to figure out underplayed players. They then enter hundreds/thousands of contests a day using scripts that have a direct interface with the DFS site.

Is it possible that nothing nefarious is occurring...sure, but as online poker showed, if there is money at stake not all the players and/or sites may be on the up and up.
Please elaborate on "complex projection systems".

Yes, I'm fully aware of scripts and entering tons of contests. That doesn't guarantee a ton of great lineups.
You can't be this dense.

A DFS player with inside information can see not only who the most picked players are, but also the ones that are undervalued with the opportunity to give +EV relative to their purchase price. If you have the same lineup as 10,000 other jagoffs, you're not winning anything. If you zag where everyone else is zigging, then your entry stands out as having the opportunity to make BOATLOADS.

As ever, IT = INFO, and there's no expiration date for it.
its SHIPloads

 
posted this in the DFS forum but figured might as well throw it in here too. seems... not ideal?
:lol: So sketchy... I won't be depositing a dime into these sites. Dropped $50 into FD last year (up to $200ish) and $50 into DK this season (up a few bucks). I'll let this run its course or will cash out if I happen to get ultra-lucky.

Out.

 
posted this in the DFS forum but figured might as well throw it in here too. seems... not ideal?
Wow...sounds like they just pimped the hell out of this thing and steal as much as they could before regulation comes in and shuts it all down.

Not even slick about it...just blatantly bilking people. Retire in the Bahamas.

 
A skilled player basically knows which players will be low owned. The Thur GPP reports on FD offer a good estimate. You already know certain players will be low owned, you don't need to see the exact percentage to know.

 
If they are to go forward legally, they will be forced to disclose each player's percent owned as a live online stat. It's going to happen.

 
Sammy3469 said:
eoMMan said:
Super computers are creating lineups?
Maybe not super computers, but the top guys all use complex projection systems and also algorithms to try to figure out underplayed players. They then enter hundreds/thousands of contests a day using scripts that have a direct interface with the DFS site.

Is it possible that nothing nefarious is occurring...sure, but as online poker showed, if there is money at stake not all the players and/or sites may be on the up and up.
See ... to me, all of the items in red are textbook "nefarious" ... and I am curious as to why it's considered above-board by the minnows.

But, I don't swim in these oceans ... so there's likely some kind of internal cultural aspect to it all that I am not appreciating here. I understand that the mileage varies for others.
Online poker boomed with many of the sharks using complex programs that, at least to my amateur conclusion, also had a direct interface with the big online poker sites. Yet people still played.

I actually still recall the day fasteddie (another FBG and gb of AF) showed me his program/system/whatever you want to call it. At that point I was playing a lot of poker and considered myself half-decent, but after seeing that program in the hands of a really good player like Eddie I realized I had zero chance playing online poker and didn't play it once since.

 
Yes and he looks like he would make for a good rape victim in jail.
Yeah, let's go over the salient points here:

1. Backwards ball-cap. Look, I'll admit, from time to time I will attempt to pull this look off.... but....

2. Do0shy wink-smile. Pair this with the backwards DK hat and top it off with the...

3. Folded arms to feign badazzery. You're not fooling anyone; us middle-aged guys know this is a ploy to divert the attention away from your pizza/beer gut.

What a tool. :lol:

and extra credit for the pushed-up sleeves on the LL Bean sweatery-thing. Enjoy prison, fella.

 
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First employees were allowed to bet at other sites.

Then the initial response to the scandal was to "temporary" suspend employees from playing at other sites.

Finally, they cave and ban employees from playing at other sites.

Seems to me this insider trading goes all the way to the top.

 
What the hell do these guys do there? They probably get paid a pretty low salary, but get inside info to make up for it.

I can just imagine the employee lunch room. A bunch of guys like the cheater talking about their wins, lineups, etc. All day.

 
Banning employees from playing isn't going to stop anyone - all they need is a friend/relative willing to make the bets on their account. Hell, they probably already are.

 
See ... to me, all of the items in red are textbook "nefarious" ... and I am curious as to why it's considered above-board by the minnows.

But, I don't swim in these oceans ... so there's likely some kind of internal cultural aspect to it all that I am not appreciating here. I understand that the mileage varies for others.
People who love gambling and football need these sites to feed their addiction. They know they are being scammed but don't care.

 
What the hell do these guys do there? They probably get paid a pretty low salary, but get inside info to make up for it.

I can just imagine the employee lunch room. A bunch of guys like the cheater talking about their wins, lineups, etc. All day.
You really think a low salary? I would think with the last few years boom, their salary + bonus has to be really nice considering what they do.

 
Today I watched Pardon the Interruption and was laughing at the "code" used in the commercial:

Blindside

Then during tonight's Cubs game it was:

End

:D

 
Banning employees from playing isn't going to stop anyone - all they need is a friend/relative willing to make the bets on their account. Hell, they probably already are.
All they really need is a friend/relative to open the account and cash out the account. The employees can login and play from their phone/tablet/computer as if the account was theirs, nobody will know who is actually logged in. I doubt the DFS sites track IP addresses on account activity.

There is no doubt shady #### is going on with DK/Fanduel this year, the money is too big. Several years ago I am sure everyone was just excited to be part of a startup but now there is life changing money being paid out every single week there. Even the most straight laced guy is going to be tempted by that, especially if they see others doing it.

The current state of DFS reminds me a lot of the tech bubble back around 2000.

 
The Draft Kings CEO just did an interview on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo :wub: . Basically said the employee did nothing wrong. I'm sure a link will pop up here.
Re: MB

No thanks. She's shaped like a pear.

 
Banning employees from playing isn't going to stop anyone - all they need is a friend/relative willing to make the bets on their account. Hell, they probably already are.
All they really need is a friend/relative to open the account and cash out the account. The employees can login and play from their phone/tablet/computer as if the account was theirs, nobody will know who is actually logged in. I doubt the DFS sites track IP addresses on account activity.

There is no doubt shady #### is going on with DK/Fanduel this year, the money is too big. Several years ago I am sure everyone was just excited to be part of a startup but now there is life changing money being paid out every single week there. Even the most straight laced guy is going to be tempted by that, especially if they see others doing it.

The current state of DFS reminds me a lot of the tech bubble back around 2000.
And figure out the accounting nightmare of the tax situation should any money be won. The friend/relative would be forced to declare the money on their taxes since the winnings are in their name. It's quite easy to avoid this in sports betting and poker...but DFS sites not so much.

 
eoMMan said:
Sammy3469 said:
eoMMan said:
bagger said:
Doug B said:
cstu said:
Most gamblers only care about winning. HTH.
Understood -- but one minnows learned of the scripting and the guys with 10,000 entries ... what kept them around?

At least Powerball asks only for a nominal sum for an astronomical chance at stupid money ... is that the same ethic at play with DFS? Minnows don't really care if they have a decent shot?
just read the threads in the shark pool.They:

1. Don't believe algorithms help and that they are smarter than computers

2. Don't care because they are having fun

3. Think their absurdly small sample size of success is replicable over the long term against super computers.
Super computers are creating lineups?
Maybe not super computers, but the top guys all use complex projection systems and also algorithms to try to figure out underplayed players. They then enter hundreds/thousands of contests a day using scripts that have a direct interface with the DFS site.

Is it possible that nothing nefarious is occurring...sure, but as online poker showed, if there is money at stake not all the players and/or sites may be on the up and up.
Please elaborate on "complex projection systems".

Yes, I'm fully aware of scripts and entering tons of contests. That doesn't guarantee a ton of great lineups.
You can't be this dense.

A DFS player with inside information can see not only who the most picked players are, but also the ones that are undervalued with the opportunity to give +EV relative to their purchase price. If you have the same lineup as 10,000 other jagoffs, you're not winning anything. If you zag where everyone else is zigging, then your entry stands out as having the opportunity to make BOATLOADS.

As ever, IT = INFO, and there's no expiration date for it.
its SHIPloads
But IT still equals INFO, right?

 
Tom Servo said:
Most gamblers only care about winning. HTH.
Understood -- but one minnows learned of the scripting and the guys with 10,000 entries ... what kept them around?

At least Powerball asks only for a nominal sum for an astronomical chance at stupid money ... is that the same ethic at play with DFS? Minnows don't really care if they have a decent shot?
just read the threads in the shark pool.They:

1. Don't believe algorithms help and that they are smarter than computers

2. Don't care because they are having fun

3. Think their absurdly small sample size of success is replicable over the long term against super computers.
Super computers are creating lineups?
Maybe not super computers, but the top guys all use complex projection systems and also algorithms to try to figure out underplayed players. They then enter hundreds/thousands of contests a day using scripts that have a direct interface with the DFS site.

Is it possible that nothing nefarious is occurring...sure, but as online poker showed, if there is money at stake not all the players and/or sites may be on the up and up.
Please elaborate on "complex projection systems".

Yes, I'm fully aware of scripts and entering tons of contests. That doesn't guarantee a ton of great lineups.
You can't be this dense.

A DFS player with inside information can see not only who the most picked players are, but also the ones that are undervalued with the opportunity to give +EV relative to their purchase price. If you have the same lineup as 10,000 other jagoffs, you're not winning anything. If you zag where everyone else is zigging, then your entry stands out as having the opportunity to make BOATLOADS.

As ever, IT = INFO, and there's no expiration date for it.
its SHIPloads
But IT still equals INFO, right?
IT equals INFO. IT has always equaled INFO.

Frankly, I don't want to live in a world where IT doesn't equal INFO.

 
Here's Goodell on DFS: Goodell explains why NFL has no issues with daily fantasy

t’s hard to see the influence that it could have on the outcome of a game because individual players are picking different players from different teams, mashing them up, you might call it,” Goodell told reporters on Wednesday. “t’s not based on the outcome of a game, which is what our biggest concern is with sports betting.”

 
Here's Goodell on DFS: Goodell explains why NFL has no issues with daily fantasy

t’s hard to see the influence that it could have on the outcome of a game because individual players are picking different players from different teams, mashing them up, you might call it,” Goodell told reporters on Wednesday. “t’s not based on the outcome of a game, which is what our biggest concern is with sports betting.”
Hope he was wearing cleats cause that's a slippery slope he is walking on

 
lumpy19 said:
chauncey said:
cstu said:
Banning employees from playing isn't going to stop anyone - all they need is a friend/relative willing to make the bets on their account. Hell, they probably already are.
All they really need is a friend/relative to open the account and cash out the account. The employees can login and play from their phone/tablet/computer as if the account was theirs, nobody will know who is actually logged in. I doubt the DFS sites track IP addresses on account activity.

There is no doubt shady #### is going on with DK/Fanduel this year, the money is too big. Several years ago I am sure everyone was just excited to be part of a startup but now there is life changing money being paid out every single week there. Even the most straight laced guy is going to be tempted by that, especially if they see others doing it.

The current state of DFS reminds me a lot of the tech bubble back around 2000.
And figure out the accounting nightmare of the tax situation should any money be won. The friend/relative would be forced to declare the money on their taxes since the winnings are in their name. It's quite easy to avoid this in sports betting and poker...but DFS sites not so much.
Uh, friend pays taxes out of winnings, takes his % cut, give employee the rest. For $300k, I'll spend the time to work it out.

 
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MattFancy said:
Interesting read from Deadspin on how the DFS phenomena started: The Daily Fantasy Nightmare Is Here Because The NFL Made It So
Jebus ... DFS was even born illegitimately. Attaching a rider to a frick'n anti-terrorism bill? I'm sure "things get done" that way all the time, but damn.

Just how shady is the NFL, when you look behind the curtain? Man, money corrupts like nothing else. (Yes, I was born yesterday)
The shadiness worked the other way on that. It was the anti-gambling folks who shadily included all the gambling stuff in a port-security bill. The pro-gambling folks just got a small exemption from all the anti-gambling stuff concerning fantasy sports.

 
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The shadiness worked the other way on that. It was the anti-gambling folks who shadily included all the gambling stuff in a port-security bill. The pro-gambling folks just got a small exemption from all the anti-gambling stuff concerning fantasy sports.
Doesn't appear to be clean hands anywhere. Same as it ever was, I guess.

 
MattFancy said:
Interesting read from Deadspin on how the DFS phenomena started: The Daily Fantasy Nightmare Is Here Because The NFL Made It So
Jebus ... DFS was even born illegitimately. Attaching a rider to a frick'n anti-terrorism bill? I'm sure "things get done" that way all the time, but damn.

Just how shady is the NFL, when you look behind the curtain? Man, money corrupts like nothing else. (Yes, I was born yesterday)
The shadiness worked the other way on that. It was the anti-gambling folks who shadily included all the gambling stuff in a port-security bill. The pro-gambling folks just got a small exemption from all the anti-gambling stuff concerning fantasy sports.
That article is so misleading. They make it read like the NFL lobbyist was involved/in charge of the fantasy carve out.

Not the case at all, CDM Sports solicited the FSTA members to help with the hiring of a fantasy sports lobbyist. No one stepped up and CDM foot the entire bill. The industry always wanted clarity on the subject because we always felt it was not gambling and a game of skill. We wanted the clarity to further grow the industry. CDM also later went on to fight the licensing issue and fantasy sports does not need Players Association licenses to operate. They won on Publicity Rights.

DFS at the time didn't even exist. (I do recall one small site, but don't remember it's start date. It was a small group of almost all online poker guys that made it look and feel like online poker with the tournament structure. They didn't start up because of the UIGEA.)

At the time, the NFL was just starting to come around to embracing fantasy sports where they didn't give the industry the time of day for decades.

 
Here's Goodell on DFS: Goodell explains why NFL has no issues with daily fantasy

t’s hard to see the influence that it could have on the outcome of a game because individual players are picking different players from different teams, mashing them up, you might call it,” Goodell told reporters on Wednesday. “t’s not based on the outcome of a game, which is what our biggest concern is with sports betting.”
Hope he was wearing cleats cause that's a slippery slope he is walking on
Goodell doesn't understand how fundamentally difficult it is to fix a game.

Think about how any given injury affects the spread. An elite QB being out can move the line 7-10 points, but most players are around 2-3. And obviously the players that have the most "pull" are also the highest-paid, and are difficult to buy off. Maybe easier to buy off a second-string LB, but they don't have much bearing on the game. They also will be utilized less and less the worse they play.

So let's say you target an ideal player, say a QB who's broken out and isn't getting paid much, and is "worth" about 3 points. That might move a team's win probability down 15% or so, again he can't play so horribly that he gets pulled, or the whole thing is moot. You're going to have to pay him a LOT of money to risk his career and completely ending his ability to legitimately get paid. Again, even for a cheap QB, it's going to be in the seven figures.

So if you're spending say a million dollars, you need to be able to bet enough to make that worthwhile and profit, which means a several million dollar bet. Again, remember that you can't definitely tank the game, you can only realistically shave some points off.

To get several million dollars down and not arouse suspicion is probably impossible. Even in 1919, pre-internet, pre-players being paid in a reasonable fashion, pre-anything, word had gotten out before the World Series started that the White Sox might be in the bag and the odds moved drastically in accordance. That's because runners probably talk, word gets out, and the bookies that take these bets aren't black boxes of information. Those guys talk, too.

Way easier to go after low-level soccer teams (en masse), obscure tennis players, etc. etc. Even then it's difficult to get away with, as red flags go up amongst the sportsbooks when there are big, coordinated hits.

 
Here's Goodell on DFS: Goodell explains why NFL has no issues with daily fantasy

t’s hard to see the influence that it could have on the outcome of a game because individual players are picking different players from different teams, mashing them up, you might call it,” Goodell told reporters on Wednesday. “t’s not based on the outcome of a game, which is what our biggest concern is with sports betting.”
Hope he was wearing cleats cause that's a slippery slope he is walking on
Goodell doesn't understand how fundamentally difficult it is to fix a game.

Think about how any given injury affects the spread. An elite QB being out can move the line 7-10 points, but most players are around 2-3. And obviously the players that have the most "pull" are also the highest-paid, and are difficult to buy off. Maybe easier to buy off a second-string LB, but they don't have much bearing on the game. They also will be utilized less and less the worse they play.

So let's say you target an ideal player, say a QB who's broken out and isn't getting paid much, and is "worth" about 3 points. That might move a team's win probability down 15% or so, again he can't play so horribly that he gets pulled, or the whole thing is moot. You're going to have to pay him a LOT of money to risk his career and completely ending his ability to legitimately get paid. Again, even for a cheap QB, it's going to be in the seven figures.

So if you're spending say a million dollars, you need to be able to bet enough to make that worthwhile and profit, which means a several million dollar bet. Again, remember that you can't definitely tank the game, you can only realistically shave some points off.

To get several million dollars down and not arouse suspicion is probably impossible. Even in 1919, pre-internet, pre-players being paid in a reasonable fashion, pre-anything, word had gotten out before the World Series started that the White Sox might be in the bag and the odds moved drastically in accordance. That's because runners probably talk, word gets out, and the bookies that take these bets aren't black boxes of information. Those guys talk, too.

Way easier to go after low-level soccer teams (en masse), obscure tennis players, etc. etc. Even then it's difficult to get away with, as red flags go up amongst the sportsbooks when there are big, coordinated hits.
Well said. Maybe back in the days when players' salaries were low, this could work. But you're not going to get Peyton Manning to risk millions upon millions of dollars just to get another million or so off of a bet. With all the salary and endorsement money these guys get in today's sport leagues, there's no way they risk all that. Even the bottom salary guys are still making a few hundred thousand a year. You'd really have to offer them something huge to risk their careers for a bet.

 
Here's Goodell on DFS: Goodell explains why NFL has no issues with daily fantasy

t’s hard to see the influence that it could have on the outcome of a game because individual players are picking different players from different teams, mashing them up, you might call it,” Goodell told reporters on Wednesday. “t’s not based on the outcome of a game, which is what our biggest concern is with sports betting.”
Hope he was wearing cleats cause that's a slippery slope he is walking on
Goodell doesn't understand how fundamentally difficult it is to fix a game.

Think about how any given injury affects the spread. An elite QB being out can move the line 7-10 points, but most players are around 2-3. And obviously the players that have the most "pull" are also the highest-paid, and are difficult to buy off. Maybe easier to buy off a second-string LB, but they don't have much bearing on the game. They also will be utilized less and less the worse they play.

So let's say you target an ideal player, say a QB who's broken out and isn't getting paid much, and is "worth" about 3 points. That might move a team's win probability down 15% or so, again he can't play so horribly that he gets pulled, or the whole thing is moot. You're going to have to pay him a LOT of money to risk his career and completely ending his ability to legitimately get paid. Again, even for a cheap QB, it's going to be in the seven figures.

So if you're spending say a million dollars, you need to be able to bet enough to make that worthwhile and profit, which means a several million dollar bet. Again, remember that you can't definitely tank the game, you can only realistically shave some points off.

To get several million dollars down and not arouse suspicion is probably impossible. Even in 1919, pre-internet, pre-players being paid in a reasonable fashion, pre-anything, word had gotten out before the World Series started that the White Sox might be in the bag and the odds moved drastically in accordance. That's because runners probably talk, word gets out, and the bookies that take these bets aren't black boxes of information. Those guys talk, too.

Way easier to go after low-level soccer teams (en masse), obscure tennis players, etc. etc. Even then it's difficult to get away with, as red flags go up amongst the sportsbooks when there are big, coordinated hits.
Well said. Maybe back in the days when players' salaries were low, this could work. But you're not going to get Peyton Manning to risk millions upon millions of dollars just to get another million or so off of a bet. With all the salary and endorsement money these guys get in today's sport leagues, there's no way they risk all that. Even the bottom salary guys are still making a few hundred thousand a year. You'd really have to offer them something huge to risk their careers for a bet.
It really is way more trouble than it's worth. Far more efficient to just hire some CS nerds to come up with a good algorithm to hit high 50%'s.

 
A few crooked billionaires made, a few more crooked millionaires, and a lot of Average Joe's conned.

Sounds like a recipe for people to go to jail, but since there is likely a trail of dirty hands that leads to high places I doubt much happens outside of eventually shutting it all down.

 
Did Tim Donaghy teach us anything about officiating? Especially in the NFL, where they are not full-time employees?

(Not saying that's happening here ... but something that can't be overlooked in the whole gambling/fixed angle.)

 
The shadiness worked the other way on that. It was the anti-gambling folks who shadily included all the gambling stuff in a port-security bill. The pro-gambling folks just got a small exemption from all the anti-gambling stuff concerning fantasy sports.
And off-site pari mutuel betting, as well.

 
Assuming the allegations of them having the roster info and using it for their advantage are true, what laws did they break?

 

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