Difference between Joe Secret Method and worst starter (1 Viewer)

[bmyers3317]

What is the difference between the to VBD methods in the Draft Dominator?

 

[kutta]

One is Joe's secret formula (more secret that the coke recipe and the Colonel's 11 herbs and spices), and the other uses the worst starter (i.e. if you start 2 RB's in a 12 team league, it will use 24 RB's) as the baseline.

 

[bmyers3317]

One is Joe's secret formula (more secret that the coke recipe and the Colonel's 11 herbs and spices), and the other uses the worst starter (i.e. if you start 2 RB's in a 12 team league, it will use 24 RB's) as the baseline.

I understand that part. I am wondering why they are drastically different? What does Joe's method use (i know it's a secret) and what one should I/would you use?

 

[Ariakis]

I tried worst starter method in a local league knowing guys won't go anywhere near 'expert' ADP and I'm fairly happy with my team. In an online expert draft I built my own to lean towards how I thought the first 8 rounds would play out. I fiddled with it until I saw QB/WR/TE going about where they should in the overall vs RB.

 

[DoubleG]

Just joined today...and already wants the secret. Dude.

If you took Nostradamus, Howie Long, Joe Montana and Adam Schefter then magically spliced all their DNA, foresight and football knowledge into one guy - that guy? He would still lose to Joe's Secret formula...every. stinking. time.

Just saying.

 

[DiStefano]

I thought his secret formula was for beef brisket.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I reverse-engineered Joe's Secret Formula a while back. I don't have the specifics here with me (and out of respect to Joe & Co., I wouldn't share it here anyway), but IIRC it's similar to worst starter except it gives more value to RBs, slightly devalues QB and WR, and significantly discounts TE, K and DST (relative to a worst starter method). It also uses what I'd call a "blurry" baseline, or a weighted average of baselines in the same vicinity (e.g. if you were using a worst starter method, instead of using QB12 as a baseline, you might use some weighted average of QB11, QB12, and QB13). The effect of this will usually be negligible though.

So basically, if you use Joe's formula and it looks like it's giving too much weight to RBs and not enough to other skill positions, you should try a different baseline method to see if you like the results better.

Also, I don't play IDP so I don't know what it does to those positions.

 

[bmyers3317]

I reverse-engineered Joe's Secret Formula a while back. I don't have the specifics here with me (and out of respect to Joe & Co., I wouldn't share it here anyway), but IIRC it's similar to worst starter except it gives more value to RBs, slightly devalues QB and WR, and significantly discounts TE, K and DST (relative to a worst starter method). It also uses what I'd call a "blurry" baseline, or a weighted average of baselines in the same vicinity (e.g. if you were using a worst starter method, instead of using QB12 as a baseline, you might use some weighted average of QB11, QB12, and QB13). The effect of this will usually be negligible though. So basically, if you use Joe's formula and it looks like it's giving too much weight to RBs and not enough to other skill positions, you should try a different baseline method to see if you like the results better.Also, I don't play IDP so I don't know what it does to those positions.

Thanks!!!

 

[dollarbill13]

It's in the VBD excel app....

 

[Wheezer34]

I had the same question when setting my DD this morning.

My league has .5PPR (otherwise standard scoring), and start 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, and 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE). When I use Joe's Secret Formula, the 1st WR on my list is #22! When I use Worst Starter, my 1st WR is #5. BIG DIFFERENCE!

 

[GregR]

I had the same question when setting my DD this morning. My league has .5PPR (otherwise standard scoring), and start 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, and 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE). When I use Joe's Secret Formula, the 1st WR on my list is #22! When I use Worst Starter, my 1st WR is #5. BIG DIFFERENCE!

I think Joe's Formula is in part trying to account for the scarcity of backup RBs in why it sets the baselines where it does. If you have a league that uses more than a standard league (i.e. more than 24), I think it can sometimes set it to deep. Your league looks like half of your flex position are RBs so even the last starter is RB 30. When Joe's formula pushes it even deeper, the RBs really get a boost in VBD value.So I might go with your own baselines in such a case.

 

[Couch Tater]

Which is the best to use when you are drafting against guppies?

Jay

 

[GregR]

Which is the best to use when you are drafting against guppies?Jay

I think the question you mean to ask is what strategy to use with guppies, not what baseline to use.VBD shows you the value that exists in the player pool. It is not dependent on how the rest of your league drafts.Your draft strategy is where you incorporate that. You look at the VBD board and then you compare it to how you THINK your league will draft. You see where you can get players later than the VBD board says they should go and try to come up with a draft strategy that targets as many of those players as possible.So for your case drafting against guppies, you need to figure out how you think the guppies will draft. I.e. they won't take RBs early enough, they will take QBs too early, they might make a lot of homer picks. And let that guide your strategy that you might have problems getting a QB if you wait too late, unless you find some you think may last that you're happy with, etc.The VBD board is one set of input to your draft strategy, but your baseline doesn't get changed because of who you are drafting against. Your strategy is what changes because of that.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I reverse-engineered Joe's Secret Formula a while back. I don't have the specifics here with me (and out of respect to Joe & Co., I wouldn't share it here anyway), but IIRC it's similar to worst starter except it gives more value to RBs, slightly devalues QB and WR, and significantly discounts TE, K and DST (relative to a worst starter method). It also uses what I'd call a "blurry" baseline, or a weighted average of baselines in the same vicinity (e.g. if you were using a worst starter method, instead of using QB12 as a baseline, you might use some weighted average of QB11, QB12, and QB13). The effect of this will usually be negligible though. So basically, if you use Joe's formula and it looks like it's giving too much weight to RBs and not enough to other skill positions, you should try a different baseline method to see if you like the results better.Also, I don't play IDP so I don't know what it does to those positions.

Thanks!!!

The baseline is something like 60 total players (5 rounds) and the positions are broken out by a typical draft (11QB, 26RB, 18WR and 5 TE, for example). I think the baselines adjust up or down based on the parameters for each league.

 

[The Jerk]

Which is the best to use when you are drafting against guppies?Jay

I just posted this in another thread but I think this would also apply to your question.There is a way to configure DD to adapt its baseline to any league tendencies.In DD,File –- Setup -- VBD BaselineChange VBD baseline to “User Configurable by Position Rank”You can choose to enter whatever numbers you want in all relevant categories.If it’s a “standard” league with no defense, you can enter the amount of QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, PKs, DTs that are typically drafted in x number of rounds.For example, if you choose to look at the first 5 rounds, you could list perhaps 9-10 QBs, 20-21 RBs, 18-19 WRs, 1-2 TEs. Or you could look at the first 8 rounds and list 11-12 QBs, 27-28 RBs, 30-31 WRs, 8-9 TEs, 0-1 PKs, 1-2 DTs. If you have past draft records available, you can look at them to help come up with exact numbers.Using five vs. eight rounds totals will change the baseline, but you could try both and see which one seems like the better choice. It’s even more important to tweak the numbers a little until you see that DD seems to have it right in terms of imitating your league.Keep in mind that what you are using DD for is more about being able to predict which players will be drafted through a given round of your draft, excepting very unusual picks and understanding that different players will be drafted to get to the position totals you expect because other drafters are using other source material.So DD will give you an idea of what your league as a whole will do. You will need to evaluate how much to vary from DD’s suggestions to optimize your team; otherwise, you will be drafting much more like your opponents.

 

[CentralPA]

Which is the best to use when you are drafting against guppies?

Jay

I just posted this in another thread but I think this would also apply to your question.There is a way to configure DD to adapt its baseline to any league tendencies.

In DD,

File –- Setup -- VBD Baseline

Change VBD baseline to “User Configurable by Position Rank”

You can choose to enter whatever numbers you want in all relevant categories.

If it’s a “standard” league with no defense, you can enter the amount of QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, PKs, DTs that are typically drafted in x number of rounds.

For example, if you choose to look at the first 5 rounds, you could list perhaps 9-10 QBs, 20-21 RBs, 18-19 WRs, 1-2 TEs. Or you could look at the first 8 rounds and list 11-12 QBs, 27-28 RBs, 30-31 WRs, 8-9 TEs, 0-1 PKs, 1-2 DTs. If you have past draft records available, you can look at them to help come up with exact numbers.

Using five vs. eight rounds totals will change the baseline, but you could try both and see which one seems like the better choice. It’s even more important to tweak the numbers a little until you see that DD seems to have it right in terms of imitating your league.

Keep in mind that what you are using DD for is more about being able to predict which players will be drafted through a given round of your draft, excepting very unusual picks and understanding that different players will be drafted to get to the position totals you expect because other drafters are using other source material.

So DD will give you an idea of what your league as a whole will do. You will need to evaluate how much to vary from DD’s suggestions to optimize your team; otherwise, you will be drafting much more like your opponents.

This is why I love using DD. It pretty much predicts who a team is going to draft and I have to say at least 80% of the time it is right.

 

[yrforyg]

What is the rationale for keying the VBD baseline to league draft tendencies? Isn't that what ADP is for? If the baseline is determined by league history, wouldn't this improperly skew the VBD values if a league happens to irrationally overvalue (e.g.) defenses?

 

[Ariakis]

I thought for user config you set it to the number of starters minus PK/DT. If you expect your league to draft PK/DT then you add 1-2 and lower another position. So the question is for an 8 starter / 12 team league (1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1FLEX) would you go by 8*12 = 96 or would you fudge it to maybe 7 and ignore the flex in your calculation? I'd think 96 would be the baseline giving you 12QB, 24RB, 36WR, 12TE ... and 12 points to fudge plus any adjustments at QB/TE/PK/DT.

 

[GregR]

What is the rationale for keying the VBD baseline to league draft tendencies? Isn't that what ADP is for? If the baseline is determined by league history, wouldn't this improperly skew the VBD values if a league happens to irrationally overvalue (e.g.) defenses?

I agree that I think it's the wrong way to set things up. I would rather have Draft Dominator telling me who who SHOULD be taken.Actually the way to set this up would be to import your own custom ADP into Draft Dominator so the ADP reflects what your league tends to do, but the tool is showing you the value in the player pool. And you can set it up so the Best Value window will take into account the custom ADP, I believe, though it takes a little more effort to get it to work.

 

[Modog814]

It's in the VBD excel app....

This...a little basic understanding of Excels "advanced security" features and you could have the formula. But basically it's what Ignoratio said it was.

 

[eoMMan]

The secret is that it contains NO WOOD....NOT A SINGLE PIECE OF WOOD!!!

 

[DoubleG]

The secret is that it contains NO WOOD....NOT A SINGLE PIECE OF WOOD!!!

Not only that but it has NO trans fat......but then again, I don't think anything has trans fat - almost everything (even stuff that's loaded with all kinds of #### like ice cream and cake...which reminds me of a song...I digress) says "NO TRANS FAT!!"So what? It's gotten to the point where "No Trans Fat" is like saying, "None of our food has broken glass shards in it! None!"But Joe's Secret Formula has none. So there you go.

 

[yrforyg]

What is the rationale for keying the VBD baseline to league draft tendencies? Isn't that what ADP is for? If the baseline is determined by league history, wouldn't this improperly skew the VBD values if a league happens to irrationally overvalue (e.g.) defenses?

I agree that I think it's the wrong way to set things up. I would rather have Draft Dominator telling me who who SHOULD be taken.

i'm not sure there's any good analytical way to determine the right baseline -- perhaps an empirical study would be interesting -- configure draft dominator with every possible baseline and run mock drafts with each, then determine which approach produces the optimal team (based on projections)