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Dion Lewis (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ex-ghost
- Start date
With this logic, chandler is forcing a timeshare also? He got all the snaps once gronk was pulled. Anybody have the 1st half snap count for the rbs?Edit ignore my post. Adam won the thread.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I've seen him play, consider me not worried.One runs to the line of scrimmage at 4.88 speed and falls down. The other guy makes the first guy miss, catches over the shoulder passes up the sideline, and would be a surefire RB1 this season if he can avoid fumbling.
Honestly, that's my only concern with the guy. Another fumble or two and he feels the wrath Ridley felt.
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Funny thing about Stevan Ridley...
For his Patriots career, Ridley had 672 touches, (649 rush, 23 rec). He fumbled nine times, which is once every 74.7 touches.
From 2013-2014 with the Pats, Blount had 219 touches, (213 rush, 6 rec). He fumbled three times, which is once every... 73 touches.
And that's actually an improvement for Blount. For his career, he has fumbled once every 58.3 touches. Which means the guy Ridley got replaced by for fumbling... actually fumbled as often as Ridley. Which suggests to me that the fumbles were just the tip of the iceberg with Ridley.
Rumors I hear tend to corroborate this theory. I hear Belichick didn't like Ridley's practice habits and, as a result, Stevan was always on thin ice. Given that, one mistake was all it took to get him yanked. Blount practiced hard, however, so Belichick was going to give him a slightly longer leash. Which also explains Jonas Gray- who got benched, remember, for oversleeping and missing a team meeting. Poor practice habits are a big deal on Belichick's Pats.
Now, if Dion Lewis keeps fumbling twice every three games, he's going to get benched. That'd be double-digit fumbles on the year, which is inconceivable in the modern NFL. But he probably won't do that, because as I said, it's pretty inconceivable in the modern NFL. The point I'm getting at is that it would be a mistake to see "Belichick treated Ridley this way after fumbles" and from that extrapolate "Belichick will treat Lewis the same way after fumbles". We've already got two instances of Belichick *NOT* treating Lewis the same way after fumbles. There were confounding factors with Ridley that aren't necessarily present with Lewis.
Tau837
Footballguy
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
Update on market value: in a 16t Ppr qrrwwftkd
Was just traded for a 2016 1st, estimated to be 1.09 to 1.16
Was just traded for a 2016 1st, estimated to be 1.09 to 1.16
I Am the Stig
Footballguy
This thread is everything the CMike thread isn't and this is why I keep returning to this site.
duaneok66
Footballguy
packersfan
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
If we're doing the "market value" thing, I'll note that I traded Davante Adams for Dion Lewis in PPR prior to last week's games.
Yeah, unless that's a very late 1st and it's a 2QB league, I'm not a fan.
loose circuits
Footballguy
even then, Bradford can easily make some adjustments and turn it around
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Where was this Ridley practice insight when he mattered/I was heavily invested?
addicted2ff
Footballguy
Has no one considered the possibility that BB has been running the spread as much as he has been because of how weak the interior lineman are at the moment? NE is currently trotting out a rookie UDFA 3rd string center and 2 4th round rookie guards and a UDFA guard with 1 year experience.
One would think that using Brady in a short, quick, spread offense is more efficient than using Blount in a power run game behind those lineman mentioned above. Lewis just happens to be part of that spread offense.
One would think that using Brady in a short, quick, spread offense is more efficient than using Blount in a power run game behind those lineman mentioned above. Lewis just happens to be part of that spread offense.
I'd been speculating out loud for a year or two that there was more to the Ridley story than just the fumbles, given the particulars I mentioned in this thread. Sometime last season I heard from a couple people with "I know a guy who knows a guy" type connections to the team who basically told me I was right that there was more to it. Nothing substantial enough to source out and pass along as fact, more just "I hear whispers that tend to fit with the available evidence and corroborate things I already suspected" type stuff.
I feel like there's very little in the NFL that really just doesn't make any sense, it's mostly just stuff where we don't know all the details. Like Trent Richardson. On the surface, he seems like such an inexplicable bust. But once again, we catch faint traces of rumors that he had serious work ethic problems. One team leader mentions in passing that he knows it's going to be a good day if he shows up to the facility and Gordon and Richardson's cars are both in the parking lot. That sort of thing.
Fantasy football would be a lot easier if we only knew what the teams know.
I'm sure the offense they're running is what best fits their personnel. But that's not just the guards, it's Lewis, too. He's unstoppable out in pass patterns. He looks like a wide receiver at times. He's probably already got 4 or 5 highlight grabs as impressive as anything Vereen ever did in New England, in my opinion. And he's a quality, patient runner, too. He's making people miss and generally just advancing the football. Whether it's a marriage of necessity or not, I don't see how New England keeps him off the field, unless they're concerned about his workload or his turnovers.
If any of you have gamepass, I'd recommend checking out the New England / Buffalo game. With 4 minutes left in the second quarter, Lewis caught a 40-yard reception that traveled 34 yards in the air... but the interesting play was the very next one, in my opinion. It's just a quick little screen, but a defender is in the throwing lane immediately after the snap, so Brady has to throw it high and Lewis has to leave his feet to go up and get it.
The receiver in front of Lewis, (Dobson, of course), completely blows his block, but the second Lewis lands, he's already squared his feet, located the defender, and he takes a small step to the side leaving the guy face-first on the ground. Lewis then runs through an arm tackle from a guy in front of him, which slows him enough for someone else to arrive from behind him, but Lewis runs through that arm tackle attempt, too. A defender finally squares up on him, but Lewis glances off of that tackle and falls forward for another two yards. In the end, he wound up with 13 yards (and three broken tackles) just through sheer individual effort. Just one play removed from running (and catching) a sideline route 40 yards downfield.
It's just one play, but like I said, Lewis has a ton of them at this point. He's breaking tackles on every play. He had a 4-yard reception against the Jags where he juked two defenders out of their shoes back-to-back before a third arrived to clean up the play. It's not even going on his highlight reel, it's just a regular cut-up for him. According to PFF, he's forced 20 missed tackles on 45 touches, (10 on running plays, 10 on receiving plays). That's not just by far the highest rate in the NFL, it's also the highest raw total. The film backs it up. Nobody can tackle him.
Lewis is averaging 4.87 yards per carry-- 5th best figure in the NFL right now-- despite not having a single run of 15 yards or longer. For comparison, there are four other backs with at least 30 rushes and no gains of 15+ yards. They are Mark Ingram (3.26 ypc), T.J. Yeldon (3.21 ypc), Jeremy Hill (2.93 ypc), and C.J. Anderson (2.31 ypc). And Lewis' rushing skillset is less impressive than his receiving skillset. Lewis is second in the league in receiving yards among RBs right now, and would probably rank first if he hadn't sat out the second half against Jacksonville.
I get that he's coming out of nowhere, and that's cause for skepticism. And I get that New England has played games with their RB depth chart before. But if we were all aliens who arrived at earth a month ago and were trying to learn about this "football" thing, we'd think that Dion Lewis was one of the top five RBs in the NFL. That's how good he's playing. Skepticism is very important, but at the same time, sometimes you just have to look and see the special talent right in front of you. I don't care what path Dion Lewis took to get to this point. As of right now, I don't see how New England keeps him off the field. Maybe I'm going to be terribly, terribly wrong... but if I'm going to be wrong, I want it to be because I'm betting on special players remaining special.
The receiver in front of Lewis, (Dobson, of course), completely blows his block, but the second Lewis lands, he's already squared his feet, located the defender, and he takes a small step to the side leaving the guy face-first on the ground. Lewis then runs through an arm tackle from a guy in front of him, which slows him enough for someone else to arrive from behind him, but Lewis runs through that arm tackle attempt, too. A defender finally squares up on him, but Lewis glances off of that tackle and falls forward for another two yards. In the end, he wound up with 13 yards (and three broken tackles) just through sheer individual effort. Just one play removed from running (and catching) a sideline route 40 yards downfield.
It's just one play, but like I said, Lewis has a ton of them at this point. He's breaking tackles on every play. He had a 4-yard reception against the Jags where he juked two defenders out of their shoes back-to-back before a third arrived to clean up the play. It's not even going on his highlight reel, it's just a regular cut-up for him. According to PFF, he's forced 20 missed tackles on 45 touches, (10 on running plays, 10 on receiving plays). That's not just by far the highest rate in the NFL, it's also the highest raw total. The film backs it up. Nobody can tackle him.
Lewis is averaging 4.87 yards per carry-- 5th best figure in the NFL right now-- despite not having a single run of 15 yards or longer. For comparison, there are four other backs with at least 30 rushes and no gains of 15+ yards. They are Mark Ingram (3.26 ypc), T.J. Yeldon (3.21 ypc), Jeremy Hill (2.93 ypc), and C.J. Anderson (2.31 ypc). And Lewis' rushing skillset is less impressive than his receiving skillset. Lewis is second in the league in receiving yards among RBs right now, and would probably rank first if he hadn't sat out the second half against Jacksonville.
I get that he's coming out of nowhere, and that's cause for skepticism. And I get that New England has played games with their RB depth chart before. But if we were all aliens who arrived at earth a month ago and were trying to learn about this "football" thing, we'd think that Dion Lewis was one of the top five RBs in the NFL. That's how good he's playing. Skepticism is very important, but at the same time, sometimes you just have to look and see the special talent right in front of you. I don't care what path Dion Lewis took to get to this point. As of right now, I don't see how New England keeps him off the field. Maybe I'm going to be terribly, terribly wrong... but if I'm going to be wrong, I want it to be because I'm betting on special players remaining special.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
So your speculating helped in what way? Help me understand how to benefit from "I hear Belichick didn't like Ridley's practice habits and, as a result, Stevan was always on thin ice." when it wasn't posted when pertinent.
Run It Up
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Bittersweet to see this guy shredding so many years after I jumped ship. I was a big investor in rookie drafts, but probably haven't owned him anywhere since his Browns stint. Getting dumped by multiple teams isn't usually the precursor to a brilliant career. Kudos to those who monitored the news and pounced when New England got him. I honestly was asleep at the wheel this offseason and didn't ponder what they might do to replace Vereen. Opportunity is a huge part of success and now Lewis has it.
Mile High
Footballguy
Sometimes it's as simple as right guy for the right situation.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
tone1oc
Footballguy
Nice insight SSOG
I just sold Marshawn Lynch for Lewis (I got Blount thrown in) and I feel thrilled. Only one league where I don't own him. I stepped up in that league because owner was dug in, but I'd contend that the market is still very friendly and the buy low(relative) window has not closed.
The conversation still seems to be very speculative which can be capitalized on.
I just sold Marshawn Lynch for Lewis (I got Blount thrown in) and I feel thrilled. Only one league where I don't own him. I stepped up in that league because owner was dug in, but I'd contend that the market is still very friendly and the buy low(relative) window has not closed.
The conversation still seems to be very speculative which can be capitalized on.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
In redraft, I wouldn't consider Marshawn Lynch as buying low.
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tone1oc
Footballguy
Dynasty, but I'd agree. I absolutely paid up because I'm fully on board as was the other owner. Not so sure this is the norm, even at this point.
Wonderllama
Footballguy
People seemingly didn't get on the bandwagon until Week 2. Moncrief was the top pickup in Week 1, and I got Lewis with the last waiver (he was MY top pickup!)
I am actually really close to working out a trade for Julio Jones but the guy started asking for Dion Lewis. I only had one response... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV0sK65PyVI
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Speculating that there was some underlying issue we didn't know about Ridley might have helped steer people away from him? I don't know. I was pretty heavily invested in Ridley. I'm not saying we could have seen him coming. A lot of this is stuff we learn after the fact, after a player has fallen apart and people start digging into the reasons why. Dirty laundry usually isn't aired publically until after the relationship has already soured past redemption. Once players are off a team and the guys in the locker room no longer feel quite as compelled to keep all their secrets. There's no actionable advice here. I'm saying fantasy would be a lot easier if we could somehow know this stuff ahead of time.
I bring it up in this thread merely to say don't assume that Belichick's reaction to Dion Lewis will be the same as his reaction to Stevan Ridley.
addicted2ff
Footballguy
How come he fell so far in the draft? Is it because of his poor combine numbers? From watching his college highlights you can tell he has very special balance and agility but those traits don't necessarily show up in combine numbers.
I think I know why he fell through the cracks post draft. It seemed to happen because he was stuck behind LeSean McCoy and the teams that picked him up after that are pretty bad at evaluating talent(Indy and Cleveland).
I think I know why he fell through the cracks post draft. It seemed to happen because he was stuck behind LeSean McCoy and the teams that picked him up after that are pretty bad at evaluating talent(Indy and Cleveland).
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
He fell out of favor in 2012 with the Eagles. They added Bryce Brown and Chris Polk as rookies, and at the beginning of the year Lewis was a healthy inactive. He also had the fire alarm incident that offseason, so it's possible they held him back in 2012 for PR. But even when he did play that year (McCoy was hurt for a few games), he was an afterthought and Brown was the feature back. The next season, Chip took over and the Eagles traded him to Cleveland for a LB. He broke his leg that preseason. He barely had a cup of coffee in Indy - signed in early September 2014 after Cleveland cut him and cut by Indy before week 1 - probably didn't have time to learn the playbook.
Hoss Style
Footballguy
It's well worth bringing up in hindsight to help understand a current player's situation. It aids in putting Lewis' situation in context, which is appreciated. No explanation needed.
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Insoxicated
I'm not sure I'd make that trade. Could argue that you're downgrading at both slots. GIving up 6-8ppg with Lewis > Martin and may be gaining a couple ppg with Fitz > Thomas... maybe. I'm not convinced there.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Fitz is a sell high, he won't keep performing at this level... Pretty even trade:
Lewis >>> Martin
Thomas >> Fitz
theToes
Footballguy
we start 2 rb's and 2 wr's
If I made the deal i would
start
forte, foster
Thomas, Cobb
That is the main reason I'm contemplating this offer
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
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Insoxicated
He doesn't have to perform at this level to continue to outperform 2015 Thomas. In PPR he's outscored him by nearly double.
If I'm selling high on him... I'm not downgrading Lewis>Martin in the process as well.... just for a Thomas who will not be approaching 2014 numbers with Peyton's arm as it is now.
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Polish Hammer
made of glass
Trying to acquire Dion Lewis in one league from a team that is heavy at RB (has Charles, Dunbar, Foster, Lewis, Woodhead in a PPR). He wants to upgrade WR (has Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Cole Beasley, and DGB). I'm looking to send him Forsett and Davante Adams as a somewhat lowball first offer for Lewis and DGB (we're buddies and he'll expect that from me). Might change out Adams for Moncrief or Maclin and DGB for Allen Robinson to see if that can get it done.
Just wanted to let potential Lewis owners how others might be valuing him.
Just wanted to let potential Lewis owners how others might be valuing him.
I Am the Stig
Footballguy
You are not offering him much of a upgrade at WR.
In fact, considering it is a PPR I don't see why he would let go of Lewis at all. Especially if you have a flex spot. Foster still isn't back yet and until he actually starts playing i'd argue that Lewis is his second best back.
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Polish Hammer
made of glass
There is also keeper value I didn't want to get into. Moncrief can be kept next year for a 10th in a 14 team league.
AcerFC
Footballguy
You have no one else to drop, a backup QB or even your defense while you figure things out
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
packersfan
Footballguy
I love Lewis but there's no way I'd drop Abdullah in any league right now
