Dion Lewis (2 Viewers)

[Rimez]

i love a good underdog story as much as the next guy and finding gold on the wire is part of the fun in fantasy football, but the hype train on lewis is getting a little out of hand. RB1? feature back? goal line carries? people really think they are going to be running lewis up the middle 20 times a game when the weather gets cold? he is going to catch some passes but that doesnt always translate into TDs, and people want to paint his fumbles as being a good thing. no one knows how lewis will hold up, he could be this years forsett or another branden oliver that breaks down after a few good games. its too early in the season for getting cute and benching known names for him.

i own him in a 10 team standard league but he will be on the bench until after the dallas game, have to see how they use him coming out of the bye when all backs are healthy and conditioned. week 1 he was the only name in town and game 2 he only had 7 rushes.

 

[RealReactions]

i love a good underdog story as much as the next guy and finding gold on the wire is part of the fun in fantasy football, but the hype train on lewis is getting a little out of hand. RB1? feature back? goal line carries? people really think they are going to be running lewis up the middle 20 times a game when the weather gets cold? he is going to catch some passes but that doesnt always translate into TDs, and people want to paint his fumbles as being a good thing. no one knows how lewis will hold up, he could be this years forsett or another branden oliver that breaks down after a few good games. its too early in the season for getting cute and benching known names for him.

i own him in a 10 team standard league but he will be on the bench until after the dallas game, have to see how they use him coming out of the bye when all backs are healthy and conditioned. week 1 he was the only name in town and game 2 he only had 7 rushes.

you clearly didn't watch the game.

 

[tone1oc]

RB1? He is right now, his usage, skills & production are not a fluke. He'll need to hold up and keep it up but I believe he can.

feature back? He is the featured back in the NE backfield, this isn't debatable and I'd hope after this week we can move past the Jonas Gray comparrisons

goal line carries? I missed where someone said that- and have conceded that his TD upside is limited. That said he did get the ball (and score) inside the 5 last week.

people really think they are going to be running lewis up the middle 20 times a game when the weather gets cold? Nobody said anything of that sort. Not many RBs are rushing up the middle 20 times period.

With re: running when the weather gets cold.. I went ahead and tested the newest boogey man and did the splits for Vereen/Blount/Ridley over the past 3 seasons.

The only of the 3 to see a decrease in carries from weeks 1-11 & 12-17 is Blount who had 5 less carries late in the year. Ridley saw a +2 delta, while Vereen saw about +1.5 more. Also, Vereen had just a touch more targets so no real change in passing usage.

Vereen: http://i.imgur.com/TdOGX5H.png

Ridley: http://i.imgur.com/EOWEyz6.png

Blount: http://i.imgur.com/wR45lFO.png

its too early in the season for getting cute and benching known names for him. No, you do not make roster/lineup decisions based on name value

i own him in a 10 team standard league but he will be on the bench until after the dallas game, have to see how they use him coming out of the bye when all backs are healthy and conditioned. week 1 he was the only name in town and game 2 he only had 7 rushes. For 40 yds/TD. Along with 73/86 snaps. Who are you starting over him?

 

[JIslander]

Week 3 isn't even in the books. Lots of hand waving. The good thing is as usual Pats have a pretty cake schedule for being SB "winners". Not sure how much we learn even after tomorrow. <<sore Ravens fan diatribe coming>> meanwhile, Ravens started season on road in Denver; came home then back out to west coast to play Raiders, then get Cincy for home opener. Lewis certainly getting the opportunities early to assuage tone 1oc as Nostradamus.

 

[Rimez]

you can talk yourself in and out of every player in the league, some people saw a world beater, i saw a tiny guy with average hands that was more quick than fast and was getting stuffed running into 6 man boxes. he had a few passes bounce off his mitts and fumbled in back-to-back weeks, the bench is closer than people think. time will tell.

 

[mnmplayer]

Since 2013, Blount has carried the ball 280 times. 13 of those carries occurred in shotgun formation.

Since 2013, Brady has either been sacked or attempted a pass 1366 times. 907 of those in shotgun formation.

nuff said

 

[Gopher State]

i love a good underdog story as much as the next guy and finding gold on the wire is part of the fun in fantasy football, but the hype train on lewis is getting a little out of hand. RB1? feature back? goal line carries? people really think they are going to be running lewis up the middle 20 times a game when the weather gets cold? he is going to catch some passes but that doesnt always translate into TDs, and people want to paint his fumbles as being a good thing. no one knows how lewis will hold up, he could be this years forsett or another branden oliver that breaks down after a few good games. its too early in the season for getting cute and benching known names for him.

i own him in a 10 team standard league but he will be on the bench until after the dallas game, have to see how they use him coming out of the bye when all backs are healthy and conditioned. week 1 he was the only name in town and game 2 he only had 7 rushes.

Good analysis here

 

[Ghost Rider]

i love a good underdog story as much as the next guy and finding gold on the wire is part of the fun in fantasy football, but the hype train on lewis is getting a little out of hand. RB1? feature back? goal line carries? people really think they are going to be running lewis up the middle 20 times a game when the weather gets cold? he is going to catch some passes but that doesnt always translate into TDs, and people want to paint his fumbles as being a good thing. no one knows how lewis will hold up, he could be this years forsett or another branden oliver that breaks down after a few good games. its too early in the season for getting cute and benching known names for him.

i own him in a 10 team standard league but he will be on the bench until after the dallas game, have to see how they use him coming out of the bye when all backs are healthy and conditioned. week 1 he was the only name in town and game 2 he only had 7 rushes.

And 6 catches for 98 yards (on 9 targets).

Dang, I wish more guys like you were in my leagues. I love when people leave obvious starters on the bench.

 

[mnmplayer]

From PATRIOTS DION LEWIS OWNS TOP ELUSIVE RATING:

In recent years, the New England Patriots backfield has been a weekly Who gets the carries? lottery. However, after the opening two weeks of the 2015 season, the Pats seem to have the three-down back they have been missing: Dion Lewis. A fifth-round pick by the Eagles in 2011, Lewis is leading our elusive rating statistic through Week 2, having broken 17 tackles on 32 touches. This more-than-adequately replaces the departed Shane Vereen in the passing game, while also adding an extra dimension to their running game.

The elusive rating is a measure of a running backs performance independent of his offensive line, taking into account his missed tackles forced (both running and receiving) and his yards after contact on run plays. After the first two weeks of the season, Lewis has an elusive rating of 181.1; last year, LeVeon Bell led the league after two weeks with an elusive rating of 119.9...

LOL Baby Barry. He's on another level.

 

[RealReactions]

you can talk yourself in and out of every player in the league, some people saw a world beater, i saw a tiny guy with average hands that was more quick than fast and was getting stuffed running into 6 man boxes. he had a few passes bounce off his mitts and fumbled in back-to-back weeks, the bench is closer than people think. time will tell.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000534103/Patriots-Dion-Lewis-6-yard-TD-run I see 7 guys in the box here and this was roughly a dive in the 2 or 4 hole which is up the middle.

http://www.patriots.com/video/2015/09/10/highlight-dion-lewis-13-yard-run Here is another one this is mostly a sweep to the 8 hole so its not up the middle but he made 2 great jump cuts. I also counted 9 guys inside the box right before the snap. You can't hate all you want but this kid is special

 

[need2know]

Wow. Play him if you can

 

[zftcg]

Own this guy in two leagues and really want to get him into my lineup this week, but am not sure who I play him over.

In one (standard scoring, start 2 RBs and no RB flex) I have Forte and Ivory. If Ivory sits he's a no-brainer (and based on last week, even if he plays at less than 100% he's still risky).

In another (0.5 PPR, start 2 RBs + RB/WR flex) I have Hill, Stewart, Woodhead, MJones and Starks. I've been starting Hill, Stewart and Woodhead so far. Considering subbing Lewis for Stewart, though I do really like the NO matchup this week. Then again, if Lacy is definitely out, Starks becomes intriguing as well.

As of right now, I'm leaning toward starting him over Ivory in one league and Stewart in the other. But I could change my mind a millions times before Sunday.

In case this is helpful for anyone, I'm starting him this week over Woodhead in one league, Ivory in the other. What it ultimately comes down to for me is upside, especially in the case of Woodhead. I know what DW is, and I will likely be happy with his results. But at 0-2, I need to start the guy who could continue putting up Top 5 numbers (though to be fair, Woodhead is currently one spot behind Lewis in my 0.5 PPR league).

 

[3optic]

Wow. Play him if you can

Yeah took note of those. Picked him up for a dynasty league in preseason, and just traded a (presumably) late first plus CJ spiller and his much less attractive price ($20 to $3) in a contract league. A bit aggressive but how many late 1st rounders can you watch tear it up like that in an NFL game? The I have no doubt he'll be a better RB 2 while I await Gurley's debut... Probably flex from there but he could outperform TG.

 

[Wonderllama]

He passed the eye test for me against the Steelers. Maybe people were right to chase Moncrief as the #1 pickup that week but I had Lewis right behind him. Fear over benching is exaggerated. Patriots are clearly on a mission, and they're better with Lewis on the field than without him

 

[bmsarvis]

Am i crazy to have em in over hyde and lacy right now?

 

[VolBoy]

Lacey may not play Monday. Take Lewis.

 

[zftcg]

Lacy is almost certainly playing. I love Lewis, but no way I sit Lacy for him.

 

[Chaka]

Week 3 isn't even in the books. Lots of hand waving. The good thing is as usual Pats have a pretty cake schedule for being SB "winners". Not sure how much we learn even after tomorrow. <<sore Ravens fan diatribe coming>> meanwhile, Ravens started season on road in Denver; came home then back out to west coast to play Raiders, then get Cincy for home opener. Lewis certainly getting the opportunities early to assuage tone 1oc as Nostradamus.

The Ravens didn't go back to Baltimore between weeks 1 & 2. They decided that they will return back to Baltimore when they have Arizona & San Francisco back to back weeks 6 & 7.

 

[Mr.Pack]

Lacy is almost certainly playing. I love Lewis, but no way I sit Lacy for him.

Link?

 

[SameSongNDance]

I'm waffling hard between him and Abdullah which seems insane given their respective offenses and recent history.

 

[ponchsox]

I'm getting cold feet on Lewis today suddenly

 

[RealReactions]

I started him everywhere and plan on doing so until i get burned. Cant be waisting his points on my bench

 

[Chaka]

I'm waffling hard between him and Abdullah which seems insane given their respective offenses and recent history.

I don't see benching Lewis for Abdullah.

Abdullah is electric and can turn a bad week into a good one on one snap (even better if your league gives return yards &/or TDs to the player...mine does the latter) but it really seems like Lewis has a similar suddenness to his game that turns nothing into a game changing play.

Considering that and the offense they each play on and the fact that Detroit is facing a much stronger defense I don't see benching Lewis this week.

New England will likely put up 65+ plays 400+ yards and 30+ points. I can't say the same about Detroit with any confidence (maybe 60 plays +/-, 300+ yards and 20+ points).

Abdullah can make benching him seem silly in a heartbeat but I think Lewis is more of a sure thing with big upside too.

 

[pghrob]

Now that Murray is ruled out, wondering if Sproles is better start v the Jets than Lewis v the Jags.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I'm waffling hard between him and Abdullah which seems insane given their respective offenses and recent history.

I don't see benching Lewis for Abdullah.

Abdullah is electric and can turn a bad week into a good one on one snap (even better if your league gives return yards &/or TDs to the player...mine does the latter) but it really seems like Lewis has a similar suddenness to his game that turns nothing into a game changing play.

Considering that and the offense they each play on and the fact that Detroit is facing a much stronger defense I don't see benching Lewis this week.

New England will likely put up 65+ plays 400+ yards and 30+ points. I can't say the same about Detroit with any confidence (maybe 60 plays +/-, 300+ yards and 20+ points).

Abdullah can make benching him seem silly in a heartbeat but I think Lewis is more of a sure thing with big upside too.

I don't want to turn this into a WDIS but Lewis has also seen 5 RZ rushes over the past two weeks, 3 last week. Abdullah has zippo.

I'm expecting Blount and Lewis to split snaps and projecting off of that. I'll very likely go with Lewis still.

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

I'm getting cold feet on Lewis today suddenly

I wouldn't be surprised if, on any given Sunday, decides he wants to pound Blount all day at the expense of the passing game and Lewis.

 

[cubbie5150]

Sticking to my early-in-the-week lineup decision & starting Lewis over JStew. Happy birthday Dion, give your owners some love!

 

[SameSongNDance]

Ben VolinVerified account ‏@BenVolin 16m16 minutes ago
RB James White is active for the #Patriots over Travaris Cadet. White was inactive last week. Still expect a lot of Dion Lewis today

 

[ponchsox]

I'm getting cold feet on Lewis today suddenly

I wouldn't be surprised if, on any given Sunday, decides he wants to pound Blount all day at the expense of the passing game and Lewis.

His ceiling is incredibly high any given week but the Belichick game plan bust factor is so high. If depends on your opponent and the rest of your team. Do you need some production or a home run hitter to win?

 

[ghostguy123]

Lewis is a nice play vs teams with good run D's. BB like to throw 50 times when playing teams like the Jets, Ravens..........................

Today I dont think he is a great play at all. 12 points maybe?? 4 grabs, 6-7 rushes.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Lewis is a nice play vs teams with good run D's. BB like to throw 50 times when playing teams like the Jets, Ravens..........................

Today I dont think he is a great play at all. 12 points maybe?? 4 grabs, 6-7 rushes.

I'd expect closer to 10 rushes the way he's been playing, and if Blount doesn't get in a rhythm who knows. It's the TD's that aren't predictable.

 

[tone1oc]

Lewis is a nice play vs teams with good run D's. BB like to throw 50 times when playing teams like the Jets, Ravens..........................

Today I dont think he is a great play at all. 12 points maybe?? 4 grabs, 6-7 rushes.

Tom Brady averages only 5 more attempts (42 vs 37) against top 10 rush defenses since 2012

Ridley saw no difference in carries (15.3 vs 15.7)

Vereen saw no difference in carries (6.0 vs 5.9)

Blount saw a slight increase in carries (6.4 vs 8)

Also, Vereen's receiving stats were about the same regarldess of rush defense.

We take narratives to Nth degree with the Pats for some reason when the data doesn't back it up.

Must start.

 

[AcerFC]

Lacy is almost certainly playing. I love Lewis, but no way I sit Lacy for him.

ppr, I am going lewis and not even thinking twice. I have starks also. Just trying to figure out lacy vs lynch

 

[duaneok66]

I'm waffling hard between him and Abdullah which seems insane given their respective offenses and recent history.

did Abdullah play last week??

 

[Ghost Rider]

I don't see the Patriots taking their foot off the gas pedal in games they get up on big this year (like 2007), so I am not subscribing to this theory that they'll get up and feed Blount the ball non-stop in the 2nd half. They want to stick it to everyone again and that means throw, throw, throw...

 

[SameSongNDance]

I'm waffling hard between him and Abdullah which seems insane given their respective offenses and recent history.

did Abdullah play last week??

I know, I know. I'm still predicting similar volume for both this week. I'm sticking with Lewis.

 

[ghostguy123]

Lewis is a nice play vs teams with good run D's. BB like to throw 50 times when playing teams like the Jets, Ravens..........................

Today I dont think he is a great play at all. 12 points maybe?? 4 grabs, 6-7 rushes.

Tom Brady averages only 5 more attempts (42 vs 37) against top 10 rush defenses since 2012

Ridley saw no difference in carries (15.3 vs 15.7)

Vereen saw no difference in carries (6.0 vs 5.9)

Blount saw a slight increase in carries (6.4 vs 8)

Also, Vereen's receiving stats were about the same regarldess of rush defense.

We take narratives to Nth degree with the Pats for some reason when the data doesn't back it up.

Must start.

What are the stats vs top 5 run D;s?

 

[RealReactions]

Lewis is a nice play vs teams with good run D's. BB like to throw 50 times when playing teams like the Jets, Ravens..........................

Today I dont think he is a great play at all. 12 points maybe?? 4 grabs, 6-7 rushes.

Tom Brady averages only 5 more attempts (42 vs 37) against top 10 rush defenses since 2012

Ridley saw no difference in carries (15.3 vs 15.7)

Vereen saw no difference in carries (6.0 vs 5.9)

Blount saw a slight increase in carries (6.4 vs 8)

Also, Vereen's receiving stats were about the same regarldess of rush defense.

We take narratives to Nth degree with the Pats for some reason when the data doesn't back it up.

Must start.

Ignore Ghostguy. Dude is a clown. Every now and then he is right but even a blind squirrel can find a nut.

 

[skol asylum]

On my bench for McCoy and Latavius this week. I think.

 

[Zow]

I'm getting cold feet on Lewis today suddenly

Lots of tough calls. I'm currently:

Starting him over Abdullah in both ppr and no-ppr.

Benching him in favor of TJ Yeldon and Isaiah Crowell in a .5 ppr.

Starting him over Eddie Lacy in a no-ppr.

 

[Zow]

On my bench for McCoy and Latavius this week. I think.

Definitely.

 

[Run It Up]

In three PPR leagues:
Sitting for Peterson, Lynch and Ingram

Starting Lewis and Blount over Andre Johnson

Starting Lewis and Mccoy over Ingram, Woodhead, Abdullah and David Johnson

 

[Eminence]

I benched him.

 

[Run It Up]

Travaris Cadet incative this week

 

[SameSongNDance]

Travaris Cadet incative this week

He was replaced by White, which is good news.

 

[duaneok66]

Travaris Cadet incative this week

He was replaced by White, which is good news.

so Cadet is a perceived threat?

 

[SameSongNDance]

Travaris Cadet incative this week

He was replaced by White, which is good news.

so Cadet is a perceived threat?

It's not so much that Cadet is a threat as it is me thinking White is garbage. White has never impressed me save in some preseason action.

 

[Run It Up]

Travaris Cadet incative this week

He was replaced by White, which is good news.

so Cadet is a perceived threat?

I liked him going into this year, but I think thats over for this season. There was some rumblings in this thread about Cadet pushing Lewis now that Blount is back.

James White is the Aaron Dobson of our backfield. He has an alleged endless fountain of talent and knows how to use none of it and is in general just an awful football player. At least Bolden is a sick special teams player.

 

[Chaka]

I'm waffling hard between him and Abdullah which seems insane given their respective offenses and recent history.

I don't see benching Lewis for Abdullah.Abdullah is electric and can turn a bad week into a good one on one snap (even better if your league gives return yards &/or TDs to the player...mine does the latter) but it really seems like Lewis has a similar suddenness to his game that turns nothing into a game changing play.

Considering that and the offense they each play on and the fact that Detroit is facing a much stronger defense I don't see benching Lewis this week.

New England will likely put up 65+ plays 400+ yards and 30+ points. I can't say the same about Detroit with any confidence (maybe 60 plays +/-, 300+ yards and 20+ points).

Abdullah can make benching him seem silly in a heartbeat but I think Lewis is more of a sure thing with big upside too.

I don't want to turn this into a WDIS but Lewis has also seen 5 RZ rushes over the past two weeks, 3 last week. Abdullah has zippo.

I'm expecting Blount and Lewis to split snaps and projecting off of that. I'll very likely go with Lewis still.

I don't view it as a WDIS, I like to hear about the decisions that people are facing and their logic behind hose decisions. It's valuable because we all have something similar in our lineups and it provides perspective. I'm doing the same thing in the David Johnson thread but I am not asking for advice, I told them my options, my decision and the logic behind my decision. I hope it helps someone facing the same choices.It's not the same as a WDIS IMO.

I recognize your issue and just wanted to offer my :2c: fwiw...which is probably less than :2c:

 

[ponchsox]

I'll be happy with 100 total yards