Disruptive technologies for the future (1 Viewer)

[(HULK)]

Fusion power and driverless cars impacts are nothing compared to AGI.

 

[TripItUp]

driverless cars Fusion power will have 1,000,000 times the impact on how we live/economics than any other achievable technology out there....in 100 years.

Fixed that for you.

Tightened it up a little bit more.

a bit more.

 

[roadkill1292]

driverless cars Fusion power will have 1,000,000 times the impact on how we live/economics than any other achievable technology out there....in 100 years.

Fixed that for you.

Tightened it up a little bit more.

a bit more.

We're only 20 years away!

yes I know the old joke

 

[msommer]

This leads me to my next point - it's unlikely that the part will be properly inspected, unless it is made by someone qualified. Think about this - assuming you could, would you install a brake pad on your car you built yourself? would you trust it to not have any cracks, voids, or contamination? are you qualified to detect any internal issues in the part? I would hope the answer is no, but lets assume you use it anyways. That void (small air pocket) in the part that you didn't see failed, causing your brake rotor to disintegrate, causing a massive crash. Who is liable here? Was it a bad design you downloaded? Did the printer have a "hiccup" when printing, and missed a spot? Was the incoming metal powder 100% pure, or maybe there was a mouse dropping in there?

IMO, 3D printing for commercial purposes is limited to pre-production prototyping (what I use it for today), novelty, and manufacturing of difficult geometries done by qualified shops. All of that exists today.

I'm not saying there isn't room for growth. There more certainly will be improvements to materials and processes. However, the fact remains that additive manufacturing cannot guarantee isotropic finished products which limits its commercial utility.

Another impediment is the IP world. Say I design a remote control. You buy the remote control, and lose the battery door. You want to 3D print a replacement for it, but there's really no incentive for me to give you my 3D design of the door. You didn't pay for that IP and I won't sell it to you - because if I do, I have no way to prevent you from selling it to anyone else - it would no longer be in my control. You know how manufacturers don't like their products being knocked off in China? What you are asking for is the ability for everyone to knock off my work... not something I'm keen on. So, I will not allow anyone else to make my parts.

I know that 3D printing is cool and neat and has been touted as revolutionary. I don't see it.

Well Boeing and Airbus already use 3d printed parts of plastic, so I guess we are only waiting for the inevitable crash now...

http://3dprint.com/63169/airbus-a350-xwb-3d-print/

And Boeing has filed patents for metal printing - to be used for aircraft

http://www.geekwire.com/2015/boeing-files-patent-for-3d-printing-of-aircraft-parts-and-yes-its-already-using-them/

As for IP this is clearly a DRM issue, which might be solved by self-decaying files or similar in that you only rent the IP and only for a specific number of applications (possible to hack? Time will tell)

that's interesting, but I would put those parts in the specialty/niche category. Boeing/airbus yearly product volumes aren't very high - these guys make less than a thousand planes a year. If each plane has a handful of parts that are needed once per plane, that's a fairly low number of parts needed per year - too few to justify investing in injection molding, to many to want to machine.

Also, aerospace is a specialized industry where weight is paramount. The fuel savings they can get is pretty significant if they can completely optimize each part. complete optimization is not all that important for everyone - especially consumer grade stuff.

I would also note that Boeng/Airbus are purchasing their 3D printed parts from specialty shops (or making in-house) - I promise you the parts are completely inspected and validated before being used on a plane.

Oh, absolutely. QC is king - and will necessarily be part of any such industrial use, and indeed will probably drive the technology further. That being said, all things start small. The shipping industry is also a strong possibility over time (for spare parts for vessels) and why not cars - it'll start with custom parts for vintage models, and could move further into mainstream. Etc.

3D printing has been around for about 20 odd years - I believe even Gordon Moore did not forsee the ubiquitousness of computers we see today when he (after about 20 years of digital computers) framed his famous law.

So we may still be limited in our ability to predict what effect 3D printing could have for society in 50 years time.

I'm not saying 3D printing doesn't have a place - it absolutely does. I simply don't think it will be a disruptive technology. It won't change the market place of consumer goods.

I can't envision a future where your average Joe has a 3D printer...I don't believe most folks want to make things. Consider - sewing machines are readily available. Fabric can be easily purchased, patterns are available on-line. How many people make their own clothes? Certainly some people do - hobbyists, creative folk, etc., but most people won't do that. Lathes and mills are available - how many people do you know that have a lathe in their garage?

Certainly, 3D printing can be a lot simpler than making clothes as there is no skill required to download a part and hit start. However, there is skill involved in making quality designs, and there is still time required. Just as it takes time to learn how to sew, it takes time to learn how to 3D model. obviously there are plenty of software packages out there that make it easier, but it's still a skill to acquire and I don't think many folks will take the time to learn how to reverse engineer a battery door for their remote control.

After thinking about it for a bit, I suppose it is possible for 3D printing to displace injection molding. That would certainly be disruptive. It's not so much folks having a 3D printer in their garage, more like you can go to the local print shop and have your widget made. For that to happen, here is what we need to see:

• homogenous parts with nearly equivalent mechanical properties (post-printing) to injection molded equivalents
• better surface finishes
• low cost printers - they are so slow, you would need maybe a 100 - 1000 printers to provide the volume of a single mold - their cost must be 100-1000x cheaper.
• a better system for bulk material/automation
• lower energy consumption
• integrated QA
• non-toxic materials (current state of the art - FDM parts require 3 or 4 hours in a detergent bath to dissolve away parts you don't want - the bath is pretty nasty).

I think this is more likely than home printing. But this alone will be very disruptive.

E.g. tiles. Today tiles that you buy in your building supplies store are likley produced in China and shipped here. How soon would it be possible to 3D print something like that?

What about your running t-shirt? Not many natural fibers in that - could that be printed? And shoes?

Relatively uncomplicated things make up the bulk of what is shipped internationally - and trucked/railed from coast to coast.

When manufacturing becomes more local than it has been since the industrial revolution things are going to rattle quite substantially.

IP/DRM protected designs (of not very complicated items) printed relatively locally will be very disruptive, at least in the logistics sector.

Likely we'll also be able to customise things to a hitherto unheard of degree - spelling the beginning of the end of mass production - and at that point China (and other low cost production centers) starts sweating bullets.

But it may not be a revolution, it is more likely to evolve over the next twenty to fifty years.

 

[msommer]

driverless cars Fusion power will have 10 times the impact on how we live/economics than any other achievable technology out there.

Fixed that for you.

I'll believe it when I see it...we've been talking about fusion for decades.

Driverless cars are on a much more steep trajectory due to advances in GPS and computing.

What exactly will driverless cars disrupt?

Drunk driving? Inner city buses?

If we all decide to take Uber everywhere there will be less private ownership of vehicles. And so what? What changes then?

GM, Ford and Chrysler go out of business? Or do they produce driverless cars based on someone elses software?

 

[(HULK)]

driverless cars Fusion power will have 10 times the impact on how we live/economics than any other achievable technology out there.

Fixed that for you.

I'll believe it when I see it...we've been talking about fusion for decades.

Driverless cars are on a much more steep trajectory due to advances in GPS and computing.

What exactly will driverless cars disrupt?

Drunk driving? Inner city buses?

If we all decide to take Uber everywhere there will be less private ownership of vehicles. And so what? What changes then?

GM, Ford and Chrysler go out of business? Or do they produce driverless cars based on someone elses software?

Driverless cars disrupt the following:

-Taxi Industry -- becomes irrelevant

-Trucking Industry -- no more human employees = higher profits + faster delivery

-Insurance Industry -- no more accidents, no need for their existance

-Emergency Rooms -- no more accidents, less injuries to treat

-Legal Industry -- no more accidents, less lawsuits

-Automobile Industry -- less cars on the road due to car sharing (current model, your car sits idle 97% of its life, expect at least a 50% drop in car ownership within the first 2 decades)

-Anything shipped by truck -- since trucking is cheaper, all goods trucked places are cheaper

-Municiple Revenues from tickets -- computers don't disobey traffic laws

-Rush hour -- it dies as soon as the majority of cars are driverless

-Real estate -- as commuting becomes less of a burden (since you can do whatever in your car and there is no more rush hour), people spread out further from the city centers, completely upending the location based values we're accustomed to

I'm sure there is more, feel free to add to the list.

 

[Quez]

Don't forget all of the local economies supported by truck stops.

 

[James Daulton]

Don't forget all of the local economies supported by truck stops.

Where will the gays go for their quick hookups? Shared hotel rooms for supposed "bachelor" parties?

 

[roadkill1292]

driverless cars Fusion power will have 10 times the impact on how we live/economics than any other achievable technology out there.

Fixed that for you.

I'll believe it when I see it...we've been talking about fusion for decades.

Driverless cars are on a much more steep trajectory due to advances in GPS and computing.

What exactly will driverless cars disrupt?

Drunk driving? Inner city buses?

If we all decide to take Uber everywhere there will be less private ownership of vehicles. And so what? What changes then?

GM, Ford and Chrysler go out of business? Or do they produce driverless cars based on someone elses software?

Driverless cars disrupt the following:

-Taxi Industry -- becomes irrelevant

-Trucking Industry -- no more human employees = higher profits + faster delivery

-Insurance Industry -- no more accidents, no need for their existance

-Emergency Rooms -- no more accidents, less injuries to treat

-Legal Industry -- no more accidents, less lawsuits

-Automobile Industry -- less cars on the road due to car sharing (current model, your car sits idle 97% of its life, expect at least a 50% drop in car ownership within the first 2 decades)

-Anything shipped by truck -- since trucking is cheaper, all goods trucked places are cheaper

-Municiple Revenues from tickets -- computers don't disobey traffic laws

-Rush hour -- it dies as soon as the majority of cars are driverless

-Real estate -- as commuting becomes less of a burden (since you can do whatever in your car and there is no more rush hour), people spread out further from the city centers, completely upending the location based values we're accustomed to

I'm sure there is more, feel free to add to the list.

That's a pretty good list. I'll add mid- to long-distance travel. If your car is doing the driving, the visit to grandma 600 miles away in Atlanta just got way easier. Do it overnight when traffic is lighter and you can sleep the whole way. Which also disrupts the motel industry.

 

[Rove!]

driverless cars Fusion power will have 10 times the impact on how we live/economics than any other achievable technology out there.

Fixed that for you.

I'll believe it when I see it...we've been talking about fusion for decades.

Driverless cars are on a much more steep trajectory due to advances in GPS and computing.

What exactly will driverless cars disrupt?Drunk driving? Inner city buses?

If we all decide to take Uber everywhere there will be less private ownership of vehicles. And so what? What changes then?

GM, Ford and Chrysler go out of business? Or do they produce driverless cars based on someone elses software?

Driverless cars disrupt the following:-Taxi Industry -- becomes irrelevant

-Trucking Industry -- no more human employees = higher profits + faster delivery

-Insurance Industry -- no more accidents, no need for their existance

-Emergency Rooms -- no more accidents, less injuries to treat

-Legal Industry -- no more accidents, less lawsuits

-Automobile Industry -- less cars on the road due to car sharing (current model, your car sits idle 97% of its life, expect at least a 50% drop in car ownership within the first 2 decades)

-Anything shipped by truck -- since trucking is cheaper, all goods trucked places are cheaper

-Municiple Revenues from tickets -- computers don't disobey traffic laws

-Rush hour -- it dies as soon as the majority of cars are driverless

-Real estate -- as commuting becomes less of a burden (since you can do whatever in your car and there is no more rush hour), people spread out further from the city centers, completely upending the location based values we're accustomed to

I'm sure there is more, feel free to add to the list.

That's a pretty good list. I'll add mid- to long-distance travel. If your car is doing the driving, the visit to grandma 600 miles away in Atlanta just got way easier. Do it overnight when traffic is lighter and you can sleep the whole way. Which also disrupts the motel industry.

Driverless cars are intriguing, but how ready for prime time is this technology?

How many years until say 10 % of vehicles on the road are driverless?

 

[cstu]

-Rush hour -- it dies as soon as the majority of cars are driverless

People still need to get to and from work at certain times. The way I see driverless cars helping rush hour is they are much smarter than people and will not make stupid decisions that slow up traffic. Also, fewer accidents will result in fewer traffic jams.

 

[cstu]

That's a pretty good list. I'll add mid- to long-distance travel. If your car is doing the driving, the visit to grandma 600 miles away in Atlanta just got way easier. Do it overnight when traffic is lighter and you can sleep the whole way. Which also disrupts the motel industry.

Sounds great to me.

 

[(HULK)]

driverless cars Fusion power will have 10 times the impact on how we live/economics than any other achievable technology out there.

Fixed that for you.

I'll believe it when I see it...we've been talking about fusion for decades.

Driverless cars are on a much more steep trajectory due to advances in GPS and computing.

What exactly will driverless cars disrupt?Drunk driving? Inner city buses?

If we all decide to take Uber everywhere there will be less private ownership of vehicles. And so what? What changes then?

GM, Ford and Chrysler go out of business? Or do they produce driverless cars based on someone elses software?

Driverless cars disrupt the following:-Taxi Industry -- becomes irrelevant

-Trucking Industry -- no more human employees = higher profits + faster delivery

-Insurance Industry -- no more accidents, no need for their existance

-Emergency Rooms -- no more accidents, less injuries to treat

-Legal Industry -- no more accidents, less lawsuits

-Automobile Industry -- less cars on the road due to car sharing (current model, your car sits idle 97% of its life, expect at least a 50% drop in car ownership within the first 2 decades)

-Anything shipped by truck -- since trucking is cheaper, all goods trucked places are cheaper

-Municiple Revenues from tickets -- computers don't disobey traffic laws

-Rush hour -- it dies as soon as the majority of cars are driverless

-Real estate -- as commuting becomes less of a burden (since you can do whatever in your car and there is no more rush hour), people spread out further from the city centers, completely upending the location based values we're accustomed to

I'm sure there is more, feel free to add to the list.

That's a pretty good list. I'll add mid- to long-distance travel. If your car is doing the driving, the visit to grandma 600 miles away in Atlanta just got way easier. Do it overnight when traffic is lighter and you can sleep the whole way. Which also disrupts the motel industry.

Driverless cars are intriguing, but how ready for prime time is this technology?

How many years until say 10 % of vehicles on the road are driverless?

I think it takes about a decade for the majority of the cars on the road to turn over. Maybe less... I saw the stastic somewhere once.

Thing is, initially, these will be more expensive. But the price will fall.

Also, car sharing companies or groups should take off too. The thing about cars sitting idle all of the time is true. We are not driving it for most of the time we own the car. It would be much cheaper to own 10% of a car and still have ALL of your transportation needs met. Even better actually, since the fleet likely has different styles of cars in it, so when I need a van or truck, I get it, and when I need a commuter, I get it, etc.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

-Rush hour -- it dies as soon as the majority of cars are driverless

People still need to get to and from work at certain times. The way I see driverless cars helping rush hour is they are much smarter than people and will not make stupid decisions that slow up traffic. Also, fewer accidents will result in fewer traffic jams.

Yes, this is the point. As I understand it, in the long run, the idea is to have the cars be able to communicate with another, or at least automatically recognize where the others are, and then be able to optimally align themselves to make this more efficient. So all of the cars on the road can be in synch, rather than hundreds of different individuals with different styles and preferences and random choices.

 

[cstu]

I think it takes about a decade for the majority of the cars on the road to turn over. Maybe less... I saw the stastic somewhere once.

Thing is, initially, these will be more expensive. But the price will fall.

Also, car sharing companies or groups should take off too. The thing about cars sitting idle all of the time is true. We are not driving it for most of the time we own the car. It would be much cheaper to own 10% of a car and still have ALL of your transportation needs met. Even better actually, since the fleet likely has different styles of cars in it, so when I need a van or truck, I get it, and when I need a commuter, I get it, etc.

It will be difficult for older people used to owning their own car to adjust to this, but kids will take to it like skin tight jeans on men.

 

[msommer]

driverless cars Fusion power will have 10 times the impact on how we live/economics than any other achievable technology out there.

Fixed that for you.

I'll believe it when I see it...we've been talking about fusion for decades.

Driverless cars are on a much more steep trajectory due to advances in GPS and computing.

What exactly will driverless cars disrupt?

Drunk driving? Inner city buses?

If we all decide to take Uber everywhere there will be less private ownership of vehicles. And so what? What changes then?

GM, Ford and Chrysler go out of business? Or do they produce driverless cars based on someone elses software?

Driverless cars disrupt the following:

-Taxi Industry -- becomes irrelevant - So what? How does that change society?

-Trucking Industry -- no more human employees = higher profits + faster delivery - See above - already made irrelevant by 3D printing

-Insurance Industry -- no more accidents, no need for their existance - There will still be accidents.And storms. And burglaries. Insurance stays.

-Emergency Rooms -- no more accidents, less injuries to treat- Even if you have dropped car accidents way down, people still fall, get sick, stabbed, shot etc. Emergency rooms stay.

-Legal Industry -- no more accidents, less lawsuits - Fewer amulance chasers. Hardly a revolution.

-Automobile Industry -- less cars on the road due to car sharing (current model, your car sits idle 97% of its life, expect at least a 50% drop in car ownership within the first 2 decades). - Doesn't follow that driverless cars means no private ownership of cars - but some might drop it if there is a suitably priced alternative.

-Anything shipped by truck -- since trucking is cheaper, all goods trucked places are cheaper. - But things are produced more locally

-Municiple Revenues from tickets -- computers don't disobey traffic laws - Less punitive taxing the of the poor - raise the property taxes then

-Rush hour -- it dies as soon as the majority of cars are driverless - Does not follow that work hours are staggered because of driverless cars

-Real estate -- as commuting becomes less of a burden (since you can do whatever in your car and there is no more rush hour), people spread out further from the city centers, completely upending the location based values we're accustomed to - Rush hour didn't disappear, see above

I'm sure there is more, feel free to add to the list.

Comments in red.

It changes some stuff a bit. But it is hardly a revolution that automating a process (driving a car) means people lose their jobs.

 

[msommer]

That's a pretty good list. I'll add mid- to long-distance travel. If your car is doing the driving, the visit to grandma 600 miles away in Atlanta just got way easier. Do it overnight when traffic is lighter and you can sleep the whole way. Which also disrupts the motel industry.

Sleeping in a car is an overrated experience

 

[roadkill1292]

Car-sharing will also let us convert a lot more of the fleet to electric, too. Electric cars are problematic for most of us because of those occasional long trips you have to make. Nobody wants to make an hour's stop on the way to the beach to re-charge.

But 95% of the driving we do is just a few miles per trip. So a shared car could make a bunch of little trips until it needed charging. It goes off to a charging station and another one takes its place, no problem.

 

[msommer]

Car-sharing will also let us convert a lot more of the fleet to electric, too. Electric cars are problematic for most of us because of those occasional long trips you have to make. Nobody wants to make an hour's stop on the way to the beach to re-charge.

But 95% of the driving we do is just a few miles per trip. So a shared car could make a bunch of little trips until it needed charging. It goes off to a charging station and another one takes its place, no problem.

I think you are channelling Minority Report now...

Car sharing is in its infancy. Perhaps it will take off. But I doubt it will be a percentage of a car you own (like Hulk mentioned above) but rather a subscription you pay to have access to the kind of car you want and then pay for the use (kms, minutes) you make of it.

 

[Quez]

LiFi

http://www.gizmag.com/li-fi-wireless-technology/32968/

Nobody commented on my LiFi post

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li-Fi

The Li-Fi market is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 82% from 2013 to 2018 and to be worth over $6 billion per year by 2018.[5]

This is gonna be huge.

 

[msommer]

LiFi

http://www.gizmag.com/li-fi-wireless-technology/32968/

Nobody commented on my LiFi post

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li-Fi

The Li-Fi market is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 82% from 2013 to 2018 and to be worth over $6 billion per year by 2018.[5]

This is gonna be huge.

What would it disrupt?

 

[moleculo]

This leads me to my next point - it's unlikely that the part will be properly inspected, unless it is made by someone qualified. Think about this - assuming you could, would you install a brake pad on your car you built yourself? would you trust it to not have any cracks, voids, or contamination? are you qualified to detect any internal issues in the part? I would hope the answer is no, but lets assume you use it anyways. That void (small air pocket) in the part that you didn't see failed, causing your brake rotor to disintegrate, causing a massive crash. Who is liable here? Was it a bad design you downloaded? Did the printer have a "hiccup" when printing, and missed a spot? Was the incoming metal powder 100% pure, or maybe there was a mouse dropping in there?

IMO, 3D printing for commercial purposes is limited to pre-production prototyping (what I use it for today), novelty, and manufacturing of difficult geometries done by qualified shops. All of that exists today.

I'm not saying there isn't room for growth. There more certainly will be improvements to materials and processes. However, the fact remains that additive manufacturing cannot guarantee isotropic finished products which limits its commercial utility.

Another impediment is the IP world. Say I design a remote control. You buy the remote control, and lose the battery door. You want to 3D print a replacement for it, but there's really no incentive for me to give you my 3D design of the door. You didn't pay for that IP and I won't sell it to you - because if I do, I have no way to prevent you from selling it to anyone else - it would no longer be in my control. You know how manufacturers don't like their products being knocked off in China? What you are asking for is the ability for everyone to knock off my work... not something I'm keen on. So, I will not allow anyone else to make my parts.

I know that 3D printing is cool and neat and has been touted as revolutionary. I don't see it.

Well Boeing and Airbus already use 3d printed parts of plastic, so I guess we are only waiting for the inevitable crash now...

http://3dprint.com/63169/airbus-a350-xwb-3d-print/

And Boeing has filed patents for metal printing - to be used for aircraft

http://www.geekwire.com/2015/boeing-files-patent-for-3d-printing-of-aircraft-parts-and-yes-its-already-using-them/

As for IP this is clearly a DRM issue, which might be solved by self-decaying files or similar in that you only rent the IP and only for a specific number of applications (possible to hack? Time will tell)

that's interesting, but I would put those parts in the specialty/niche category. Boeing/airbus yearly product volumes aren't very high - these guys make less than a thousand planes a year. If each plane has a handful of parts that are needed once per plane, that's a fairly low number of parts needed per year - too few to justify investing in injection molding, to many to want to machine.

Also, aerospace is a specialized industry where weight is paramount. The fuel savings they can get is pretty significant if they can completely optimize each part. complete optimization is not all that important for everyone - especially consumer grade stuff.

I would also note that Boeng/Airbus are purchasing their 3D printed parts from specialty shops (or making in-house) - I promise you the parts are completely inspected and validated before being used on a plane.

Oh, absolutely. QC is king - and will necessarily be part of any such industrial use, and indeed will probably drive the technology further. That being said, all things start small. The shipping industry is also a strong possibility over time (for spare parts for vessels) and why not cars - it'll start with custom parts for vintage models, and could move further into mainstream. Etc.

3D printing has been around for about 20 odd years - I believe even Gordon Moore did not forsee the ubiquitousness of computers we see today when he (after about 20 years of digital computers) framed his famous law.

So we may still be limited in our ability to predict what effect 3D printing could have for society in 50 years time.

I'm not saying 3D printing doesn't have a place - it absolutely does. I simply don't think it will be a disruptive technology. It won't change the market place of consumer goods.

I can't envision a future where your average Joe has a 3D printer...I don't believe most folks want to make things. Consider - sewing machines are readily available. Fabric can be easily purchased, patterns are available on-line. How many people make their own clothes? Certainly some people do - hobbyists, creative folk, etc., but most people won't do that. Lathes and mills are available - how many people do you know that have a lathe in their garage?

Certainly, 3D printing can be a lot simpler than making clothes as there is no skill required to download a part and hit start. However, there is skill involved in making quality designs, and there is still time required. Just as it takes time to learn how to sew, it takes time to learn how to 3D model. obviously there are plenty of software packages out there that make it easier, but it's still a skill to acquire and I don't think many folks will take the time to learn how to reverse engineer a battery door for their remote control.

After thinking about it for a bit, I suppose it is possible for 3D printing to displace injection molding. That would certainly be disruptive. It's not so much folks having a 3D printer in their garage, more like you can go to the local print shop and have your widget made. For that to happen, here is what we need to see:

• homogenous parts with nearly equivalent mechanical properties (post-printing) to injection molded equivalents
• better surface finishes
• low cost printers - they are so slow, you would need maybe a 100 - 1000 printers to provide the volume of a single mold - their cost must be 100-1000x cheaper.
• a better system for bulk material/automation
• lower energy consumption
• integrated QA
• non-toxic materials (current state of the art - FDM parts require 3 or 4 hours in a detergent bath to dissolve away parts you don't want - the bath is pretty nasty).

I think this is more likely than home printing. But this alone will be very disruptive.

E.g. tiles. Today tiles that you buy in your building supplies store are likley produced in China and shipped here. How soon would it be possible to 3D print something like that?

What about your running t-shirt? Not many natural fibers in that - could that be printed? And shoes?

Relatively uncomplicated things make up the bulk of what is shipped internationally - and trucked/railed from coast to coast.

When manufacturing becomes more local than it has been since the industrial revolution things are going to rattle quite substantially.

IP/DRM protected designs (of not very complicated items) printed relatively locally will be very disruptive, at least in the logistics sector.

Likely we'll also be able to customise things to a hitherto unheard of degree - spelling the beginning of the end of mass production - and at that point China (and other low cost production centers) starts sweating bullets.

But it may not be a revolution, it is more likely to evolve over the next twenty to fifty years.

this is really more about highly automated manufacturing rather than 3D printing.

If manufacturing was more automated than manual, labor costs drop to zip. When coupled with freight/duty costs, China becomes much less competitive. Their only advantage is cheap labor.

you don't have to have 3D printing for full automation...That's one way to do it, but you can have fully automated CNC machining, robotics, etc.

We have been on this path for a long time. It will happen and I've seen signs of it coming about already.

 

[Quez]

LiFi

http://www.gizmag.com/li-fi-wireless-technology/32968/

Nobody commented on my LiFi post https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li-Fi

The Li-Fi market is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 82% from 2013 to 2018 and to be worth over $6 billion per year by 2018.[5]

This is gonna be huge.

What would it disrupt?

I think LiFi will be essential in ushering in other forms of technology. For starters, driverless vehicles. Driverless vehicles are going to need to be connected, and problems with WiFi have already been identified. LiFi could help communication to and between vehicles.Also, for smart homes to really take off I think this tech is essential.

The obvious "distribution" would be to the current limitations of the internet. This would vastly increase accessibility. I'm not sure $10gb cell plans would work if there was such an abundance of high speed internet.

 

[msommer]

LiFi

http://www.gizmag.com/li-fi-wireless-technology/32968/

Nobody commented on my LiFi post https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li-Fi

The Li-Fi market is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 82% from 2013 to 2018 and to be worth over $6 billion per year by 2018.[5]

This is gonna be huge.

What would it disrupt?

I think LiFi will be essential in ushering in other forms of technology. For starters, driverless vehicles. Driverless vehicles are going to need to be connected, and problems with WiFi have already been identified. LiFi could help communication to and between vehicles.Also, for smart homes to really take off I think this tech is essential.

The obvious "distribution" would be to the current limitations of the internet. This would vastly increase accessibility. I'm not sure $10gb cell plans would work if there was such an abundance of high speed internet.

Driverless cars don't work without LiFi?

I'm not sure I understand the "smart home" concept. I'm not sure I want my fridge to order food for me. What else does it do?

Being Devil's advocate here, so we can have discussions instead of statements

 

[BoltBacker]

Drone toilets.

 

[msommer]

Drone toilets.

Th FAA would prohibit flushing over cities I suspect

 

[Quez]

LiFi

http://www.gizmag.com/li-fi-wireless-technology/32968/

Nobody commented on my LiFi post https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li-Fi

The Li-Fi market is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 82% from 2013 to 2018 and to be worth over $6 billion per year by 2018.[5]

This is gonna be huge.

What would it disrupt?

I think LiFi will be essential in ushering in other forms of technology. For starters, driverless vehicles. Driverless vehicles are going to need to be connected, and problems with WiFi have already been identified. LiFi could help communication to and between vehicles.Also, for smart homes to really take off I think this tech is essential.

The obvious "distribution" would be to the current limitations of the internet. This would vastly increase accessibility. I'm not sure $10gb cell plans would work if there was such an abundance of high speed internet.

Driverless cars don't work without LiFi?I'm not sure I understand the "smart home" concept. I'm not sure I want my fridge to order food for me. What else does it do?

Being Devil's advocate here, so we can have discussions instead of statements

To get the most out of driverless cars they are going to need to communicate. There have already been security, congestion issues concerning the WiFi spectrum. This would make a new spectrum they could use. Driverless cars will still happen without LiFi, as will smart homes, but once LiFi is available it really opens things up.

Right now many of the Smart Home ideas may not seem necessary, but it's definitely the future. The "internet of things" is something people have been talking about. Where everything is connected.

Amazon just rolled out "smart buttons" that allow you to press a button and order stuff. When your out of laundry detergent, you just press a button. You don't need LiFi for these things, but I'm just using it as an example of how things are becoming more connected.

 

[TripItUp]

Driverless cars are intriguing, but how ready for prime time is this technology?

It's way more likely to have an impact in our lifetimes than the other technologies being discussed in this thread.(3d printing and fusion power)

They are testing cars right now in silicon valley.

 

[msommer]

LiFi

http://www.gizmag.com/li-fi-wireless-technology/32968/

Nobody commented on my LiFi post https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li-Fi

The Li-Fi market is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 82% from 2013 to 2018 and to be worth over $6 billion per year by 2018.[5]

This is gonna be huge.

What would it disrupt?

I think LiFi will be essential in ushering in other forms of technology. For starters, driverless vehicles. Driverless vehicles are going to need to be connected, and problems with WiFi have already been identified. LiFi could help communication to and between vehicles.Also, for smart homes to really take off I think this tech is essential.

The obvious "distribution" would be to the current limitations of the internet. This would vastly increase accessibility. I'm not sure $10gb cell plans would work if there was such an abundance of high speed internet.

Driverless cars don't work without LiFi?I'm not sure I understand the "smart home" concept. I'm not sure I want my fridge to order food for me. What else does it do?

Being Devil's advocate here, so we can have discussions instead of statements

To get the most out of driverless cars they are going to need to communicate. There have already been security, congestion issues concerning the WiFi spectrum. This would make a new spectrum they could use. Driverless cars will still happen without LiFi, as will smart homes, but once LiFi is available it really opens things up.

Right now many of the Smart Home ideas may not seem necessary, but it's definitely the future. The "internet of things" is something people have been talking about. Where everything is connected.

Amazon just rolled out "smart buttons" that allow you to press a button and order stuff. When your out of laundry detergent, you just press a button. You don't need LiFi for these things, but I'm just using it as an example of how things are becoming more connected.

Driverless cars can communicate via short range radio, lasers etc. LiFi is hardly the only option

Amazon's button is working just fine without LiFi too.

My point is that it just seems like an upgrade to what we have not something that will change society too much

ETA: If you are AT&T, Verizon or another hardware for cell phone service owner LiFi would likely change your business model. It may even make it obsolete, as Google cars might drive GM out of business. But there will still be internet on your handheld device and there will still be a car in your driveway, even if it is only as and when you need it (if you are an advanced user).

 

[Mr. Cross]

The internet is really disruptive.

 

[Homer J Simpson]

Driverless cars are intriguing, but how ready for prime time is this technology?

It's way more likely to have an impact in our lifetimes than the other technologies being discussed in this thread.(3d printing and fusion power)

They are testing cars right now in silicon valley.

Cars are being tested, but, the more I read on them, the less ready-for-prime-time they are.

We're still a long, long, long way away from having a driverless car that can see an empty plastic bag floating across the street and know it's OK to drive over it, rather than brake hard or swerve violently to avoid as if it's a cat or small child.

How long do you think?

 

[Mr. Cross]

Driverless cars are intriguing, but how ready for prime time is this technology?

It's way more likely to have an impact in our lifetimes than the other technologies being discussed in this thread.(3d printing and fusion power)

They are testing cars right now in silicon valley.

Cars are being tested, but, the more I read on them, the less ready-for-prime-time they are.

We're still a long, long, long way away from having a driverless car that can see an empty plastic bag floating across the street and know it's OK to drive over it, rather than brake hard or swerve violently to avoid as if it's a cat or small child.

How long do you think?

April 2016 probably

 

[cstu]

Driverless cars are intriguing, but how ready for prime time is this technology?

It's way more likely to have an impact in our lifetimes than the other technologies being discussed in this thread.(3d printing and fusion power)

They are testing cars right now in silicon valley.

Cars are being tested, but, the more I read on them, the less ready-for-prime-time they are.

We're still a long, long, long way away from having a driverless car that can see an empty plastic bag floating across the street and know it's OK to drive over it, rather than brake hard or swerve violently to avoid as if it's a cat or small child.

This could easily be solved by "Watch out for flying cats and children" signs in the affected areas.

 

[5Rings]

Can someone briefly explain how the materials procurement occurs for the 3d printing? Will everything be made out of the same polymer? Or do I have to buy a bunch of different materials and load them in? And if so, will we then have these materials sold in local stores and/or be probably want to have a regular deliver of certain materials that are the most common?

And I'm assuming most of these materials used are plastic (IE: OIL!) If we start using polymers/plastics in large quantities for constuction purposes, aren't we just going to accelerate the world's oil dependance and depletion? (Honest question...I don't know much about this.)

If we stop burning it there will be plenty. That aside they are already 3D printing with aluminium

I'm printing Titanium, Cobalt Chrome, and a silver palladium. It's here

 

[cstu]

Spider-like robots could build massive space structures.

 

[msommer]

FDA approves 1st 3D printed drug/pill

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-33772692

In a world first, the US Food and Drug Administration has given the go-ahead for a 3D-printed pill to be produced.

The FDA has previously approved medical devices - including prosthetics - that have been 3D printed.

The new drug, dubbed Spritam, was developed by Aprecia Pharmaceuticals to control seizures brought on by epilepsy.

The company said that it planned to develop other medications using its 3D platform.

Printing the drugs allows layers of medication to be packaged more tightly in precise dosages.

A separate technology developed by the firm, known as ZipDose, makes high-dose medications easier to swallow.

Printing the drug meant it could package up to 1,000 milligrams into individual tablets.

The 3D-printed pill dissolves in the same manner as other oral medicines.

Replica jawsBeing able to 3D print a tablet offers the potential to create bespoke drugs based on the specific needs of patients, rather than having a one product fits all approach, according to experts.

"For the last 50 years we have manufactured tablets in factories and shipped them to hospitals and for the first time this process means we can produce tablets much closer to the patient," said Dr Mohamed Albed Alhnan, a lecturer in pharmaceutics at the University of Central Lancashire.

It would mean that medical institutions could adjust the dose for individual patients with just a simple tweak to the software before printing. Previously, such personalised medicine would have been extremely expensive to produce, said Dr Alhnan.

3D printing works by creating an object layer by layer. In the case of medicines, printers are adapted to produce pharmaceutical compounds rather than polymers which are more usually used.

Such methods are already proving very useful in healthcare with doctors using the system to create customised implants for patients with injuries or other conditions.

And dentists, for example, use 3D printers to create replica jaws and teeth as well as other dental implants.

Spritam will launch in the first quarter of 2016, according to Aprecia.

 

[Rove!]

3d printed super ar

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/04/us-usa-3d-printed-supercar-idUSKCN0Q91W020150804

No assembly plant needed

102 lb chassis

 

[VA703]

satellite warfare and the ion cannon

 

[Sand]

satellite warfare and the ion cannon

We'll see the railgun sooner and, let me tell you, it's gonna be awesome.

 

[VA703]

satellite warfare and the ion cannon

We'll see the railgun sooner and, let me tell you, it's gonna be awesome.

ill take the BFG9000 over the rail

 

[Rove!]

Quantum computing is here

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/12042781/Google-D-Wave-quantum-computer-is-100-million-times-faster-than-your-PC.html

 

[Quez]

Quantum computing is here

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/12042781/Google-D-Wave-quantum-computer-is-100-million-times-faster-than-your-PC.html

I read this yesterday. What exactly is the increased computing power going to help do?

 

[Abraham]

Quantum computing is here

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/12042781/Google-D-Wave-quantum-computer-is-100-million-times-faster-than-your-PC.html

I read this yesterday. What exactly is the increased computing power going to help do?

Even the most powerful computers only do a fraction of the things the human brain does on a second by second basis. So more powerful computers are necessary if we are going to get to real AI. Do with that what you will.

 

[James Daulton]

Quantum computing is here

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/12042781/Google-D-Wave-quantum-computer-is-100-million-times-faster-than-your-PC.html

I read this yesterday. What exactly is the increased computing power going to help do?

Even the most powerful computers only do a fraction of the things the human brain does on a second by second basis. So more powerful computers are necessary if we are going to get to real AI. Do with that what you will.

Some "experts" expect computing power to surpass the human brain by 2030. After that they believe AI will follow shortly thereafter and then who knows what.

This site has an excellent write-up of some thoughts.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html

 

[Quez]

Speaking of AI, I checked out the movie ex-machina the other day. Pretty crazy.

 

[bcdjr1]

Quantum computing is here

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/12042781/Google-D-Wave-quantum-computer-is-100-million-times-faster-than-your-PC.html

I read this yesterday. What exactly is the increased computing power going to help do?

It'll allow hackers to crack encryption codes in a few hours compared to the years it would take them to do it with current computers.

https://youtu.be/JhHMJCUmq28

 

[AAABatteries]

VR porn?

 

[cstu]

I read this yesterday. What exactly is the increased computing power going to help do?

Eventually they will be able to upload your consciousness into a computer.

 

[Rove!]

days of soldering are numbered?

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/will-this-fancy-metallic-glue-kill-soldering

thanks to a recent creation dubbed MesoGlue: a "revolutionary joining solution that lets you attach items together with a metal bond, at room temperature." Soldering without the heat, in other words. The new material is described in this month's Advanced Materials and Processes.

 

[Quez]

I remember when I was at FSU they were working with nano carbons. I did a little googling and stumbled on this,

http://news.fsu.edu/More-FSU-News/24-7-News-Archive/2015/February-2015/Promising-nanomaterial-s-origin-revealed

Under certain conditions, metallofullerenes can have spectacular properties that make them prized as advanced materials for an array of technologies, such as conversion of sunlight into electricity and as possible components of molecular electronics,