WeScoreMore
Footballguy
So you're saying DD doesn't check his work?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Dodds (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Burning Sensation
- Start date
- Status
Das Boot
Footballguy
I thought projections took into account:1. Recent player performance (and performance of other key positions on the team)
2. Opponent strengths/weaknesses on both offense and defense (e.g. a ball control opponent offense means less time of possession for the player in question's offense)
3. Home/Away
4. Injuries (to the player in question and other key positions on his team)
5. Weather
6. Scheduling factors (e.g. MNF last week?)
7. Probably a few other factors I'm forgetting.
What are the other pieces of the puzzle Projections don't include? Gut feel is the only one I can think of.
Just curious.
Boot.
There's pure stat projections, and the likelihood of them being reached. Peyton despite his bad start, is still more likely to have a monster game, and more likely to reach the projections.
McCown is unlike to have a monster game, and is less likely to make his projections.
So unless you're projecting McCown a significant margin ahead of Peyton, you'd go with the more proven talent.
WeScoreMore
Footballguy
Did you draft Barlow (RB8) over these players last season? They were 'projected' lowerI thought projections took into account:1. Recent player performance (and performance of other key positions on the team)
2. Opponent strengths/weaknesses on both offense and defense (e.g. a ball control opponent offense means less time of possession for the player in question's offense)
3. Home/Away
4. Injuries (to the player in question and other key positions on his team)
5. Weather
6. Scheduling factors (e.g. MNF last week?)
7. Probably a few other factors I'm forgetting.
What are the other pieces of the puzzle Projections don't include? Gut feel is the only one I can think of.
Just curious.
Boot.
Fred Taylor
Domanick Davis
Jamal Lewis
Marshall Faulk
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Travis Henry
Thomas Jones
Duce Staley
Corey Dillon
Curtis Martin
Rudi Johnson
Chris Brown
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
The comment on the .6 thing is based on the belief that the rankings are derived directly from the projections - which may be true. I am not sure of the exact ins and outs of how David does his projection and cheatsheet work in the season. That answers this question:
I don't know.
Das Boot
Footballguy
You accidentally forgot to answer the question.Boot.Did you draft Barlow (RB8) over these players last season?
They were 'projected' lower
Fred Taylor
Domanick Davis
Jamal Lewis
Marshall Faulk
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Travis Henry
Thomas Jones
Duce Staley
Corey Dillon
Curtis Martin
Rudi Johnson
Chris Brown
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
season projections and weekly projections are entirely different animals.Did you draft Barlow (RB8) over these players last season? They were 'projected' lowerI thought projections took into account:1. Recent player performance (and performance of other key positions on the team)
2. Opponent strengths/weaknesses on both offense and defense (e.g. a ball control opponent offense means less time of possession for the player in question's offense)
3. Home/Away
4. Injuries (to the player in question and other key positions on his team)
5. Weather
6. Scheduling factors (e.g. MNF last week?)
7. Probably a few other factors I'm forgetting.
What are the other pieces of the puzzle Projections don't include? Gut feel is the only one I can think of.
Just curious.
Boot.
Fred Taylor
Domanick Davis
Jamal Lewis
Marshall Faulk
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Travis Henry
Thomas Jones
Duce Staley
Corey Dillon
Curtis Martin
Rudi Johnson
Chris Brown
WeScoreMore
Footballguy
Why is that?season projections and weekly projections are entirely different animals.Did you draft Barlow (RB8) over these players last season? They were 'projected' lowerI thought projections took into account:1. Recent player performance (and performance of other key positions on the team)
2. Opponent strengths/weaknesses on both offense and defense (e.g. a ball control opponent offense means less time of possession for the player in question's offense)
3. Home/Away
4. Injuries (to the player in question and other key positions on his team)
5. Weather
6. Scheduling factors (e.g. MNF last week?)
7. Probably a few other factors I'm forgetting.
What are the other pieces of the puzzle Projections don't include? Gut feel is the only one I can think of.
Just curious.
Boot.
Fred Taylor
Domanick Davis
Jamal Lewis
Marshall Faulk
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Travis Henry
Thomas Jones
Duce Staley
Corey Dillon
Curtis Martin
Rudi Johnson
Chris Brown
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Each week of the season you can reflect back on how the opposing defense is playing so far that year, how they have played similar teams, the player's history against that team, in-season injuries.Pre-season projections for the season don't have as much predictability - I think the reasons the projections are different are obvious.Why is that?season projections and weekly projections are entirely different animals.Did you draft Barlow (RB8) over these players last season? They were 'projected' lowerI thought projections took into account:1. Recent player performance (and performance of other key positions on the team)
2. Opponent strengths/weaknesses on both offense and defense (e.g. a ball control opponent offense means less time of possession for the player in question's offense)
3. Home/Away
4. Injuries (to the player in question and other key positions on his team)
5. Weather
6. Scheduling factors (e.g. MNF last week?)
7. Probably a few other factors I'm forgetting.
What are the other pieces of the puzzle Projections don't include? Gut feel is the only one I can think of.
Just curious.
Boot.
Fred Taylor
Domanick Davis
Jamal Lewis
Marshall Faulk
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Travis Henry
Thomas Jones
Duce Staley
Corey Dillon
Curtis Martin
Rudi Johnson
Chris Brown
WeScoreMore
Footballguy
So since we have this 2/3 week 'history' so far this season to go by and we did our 'projections', It is LIKELY that McCown will outscore Manning this week?Each week of the season you can reflect back on how the opposing defense is playing so far that year, how they have played similar teams, the player's history against that team, in-season injuries.Pre-season projections for the season don't have as much predictability - I think the reasons the projections are different are obvious.Why is that?season projections and weekly projections are entirely different animals.Did you draft Barlow (RB8) over these players last season? They were 'projected' lowerI thought projections took into account:1. Recent player performance (and performance of other key positions on the team)
2. Opponent strengths/weaknesses on both offense and defense (e.g. a ball control opponent offense means less time of possession for the player in question's offense)
3. Home/Away
4. Injuries (to the player in question and other key positions on his team)
5. Weather
6. Scheduling factors (e.g. MNF last week?)
7. Probably a few other factors I'm forgetting.
What are the other pieces of the puzzle Projections don't include? Gut feel is the only one I can think of.
Just curious.
Boot.
Fred Taylor
Domanick Davis
Jamal Lewis
Marshall Faulk
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Travis Henry
Thomas Jones
Duce Staley
Corey Dillon
Curtis Martin
Rudi Johnson
Chris Brown
if mccown and manning are projected within 3 pts of each other, you'd be crazy to start mccown.So if YOU projected each player invidually, and YOU came up with results that had McCown .6pts higher, then why wouldn't you trust YOUR own projections?No.Wescoremore, would YOU start Mccown over Manning this week?OkayThen if Lloyd should be ranked higher than Harrison (which he is), I see no reason why some scrub QB from ARI cannot be ranked (.6 of a fpt) higher than Peyton.Fixed.LOL, i am watching a show, and coming back to check the threads during commercials.Took you 10minutes to come up with that?Okay using your theory...
Should Brandon Lloyd EVER be ranked higher than
Marvin Harrison?
To answer your question, Lloyd to Harrison is a bad example, Lloyd has actually played this year and had some good games. I am not saying Mccown can not have a better week than Manning, but i think it is unlikely. It is certainly more likely Lloyd has a better game than Harrison, although i do not think Lloyd should be ranked higher than Harrison this week, or any week in the near future yes.
OK, back to Engineering disasters i go. Be back next commercial.
P.S. I am pretty confident Dodds doesn't look at the order the players come out. He just crunches numbers.
PS .6 of an fpt wouldnt change my mind either
I don't understand people saying that they'd bench a guy they have rated higher.
Why? If you think that McCown will score more points than Manning, even if it is by a small amount, why would you start Manning?
seahawk 17
Footballguy
Always start your studs...is McCown your stud?
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
No - there is individual weeklyprojections - how that particular player is going to perform against that particular defense given what we already have learned from the three weeks of the season, including injuries on both sides.You can get a much more exact/personalized projection from that over what you do in thepreseason when you do general projections based on no history of the particular game.So since we have this 2/3 week 'history' so far this season to go by and we did our 'projections', It is LIKELY that McCown will outscore Manning this week?Each week of the season you can reflect back on how the opposing defense is playing so far that year, how they have played similar teams, the player's history against that team, in-season injuries.Pre-season projections for the season don't have as much predictability - I think the reasons the projections are different are obvious.Why is that?season projections and weekly projections are entirely different animals.Did you draft Barlow (RB8) over these players last season? They were 'projected' lowerI thought projections took into account:1. Recent player performance (and performance of other key positions on the team)
2. Opponent strengths/weaknesses on both offense and defense (e.g. a ball control opponent offense means less time of possession for the player in question's offense)
3. Home/Away
4. Injuries (to the player in question and other key positions on his team)
5. Weather
6. Scheduling factors (e.g. MNF last week?)
7. Probably a few other factors I'm forgetting.
What are the other pieces of the puzzle Projections don't include? Gut feel is the only one I can think of.
Just curious.
Boot.
Fred Taylor
Domanick Davis
Jamal Lewis
Marshall Faulk
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Travis Henry
Thomas Jones
Duce Staley
Corey Dillon
Curtis Martin
Rudi Johnson
Chris Brown
Do I really have to fully explain the difference between in-season one-week projections versus pre-season projections over the whole season? If I do, it will be like elemntary school - this is obvious stuff.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
B/c at some point the "has he ever done it before?" argument becomes valid. It's like ranking Willie Parker above LaDainian b/c Pitt is playing Minnesota and SD is playing Tampa Bay. Parker's got a much better matchup, but is his body of work strong enough to support starting him over LT2 just because of matchup?
Why? If you think that McCown will score more points than Manning, even if it is by a small amount, why would you start Manning?
Last edited by a moderator:
David Dodds
Administrator
I probably will be moving Manning up a tad and McCown down a tad, but my reasons for the initial rankings are the following:Arizona just suffered horrendous losses on the defensive side of the ball. They positively will be throwing all day as they will not be able to stop ANYONE. This game will be high scoring.- Star rookie corner Antrel Rolle tweaked an already sore knee- The secondary took yet another blow when their other starting corner David Macklin went down with a hamstring injury. And on that note, San Francisco also suffered more defensive injuries (their best defensive players: Plummer and Peterson). This to a unit that is already the worst in the NFL at defending the pass.McCown may not be that good, but he has quality receivers that will get open all day long. I think he has a huge game. Tennessee is over their heads against Indianapolis, but they have a good DL. Good enough to rush 3 and drop 8 in coverage like every other team has tried against the Colts. In my opinion, Manning will play dink and dunk football and setup the rushing TDs and FGs to win this game.and finally, when I ran the Arizona / SF Game through the Game predictor, Warner (the Arizona QB that the stats were based on was off the charts). I know McCown is not Warner and I have reduced the output significantly because of that. But in the end, this is about as good a matchup as any QB could ever face. Drew Bledsoe had a lifetime to throw last week agaisnt this SF team. Do you really think McCown is going to get rattled with no pass rush and a bunch of lame defenders limping to cover Fitzgerald and Boldin?I may miss big on this one, but I think you could be looking at McCown's low side (at 10) and his high side could be a Top 5 play this week.
Last edited by a moderator:
WeScoreMore
Footballguy
Stop beating around the bush. I know the obvious stuff, I have won 12 FF leagues. I asked you Is it LIKELY that McCown will outscore Manning this week?No - there is individual weeklyprojections - how that particular player is going to perform against that particular defense given what we already have learned from the three weeks of the season, including injuries on both sides.You can get a much more exact/personalized projection from that over what you do in thepreseason when you do general projections based on no history of the particular game.So since we have this 2/3 week 'history' so far this season to go by and we did our 'projections', It is LIKELY that McCown will outscore Manning this week?Each week of the season you can reflect back on how the opposing defense is playing so far that year, how they have played similar teams, the player's history against that team, in-season injuries.Pre-season projections for the season don't have as much predictability - I think the reasons the projections are different are obvious.Why is that?season projections and weekly projections are entirely different animals.Did you draft Barlow (RB8) over these players last season? They were 'projected' lowerI thought projections took into account:1. Recent player performance (and performance of other key positions on the team)
2. Opponent strengths/weaknesses on both offense and defense (e.g. a ball control opponent offense means less time of possession for the player in question's offense)
3. Home/Away
4. Injuries (to the player in question and other key positions on his team)
5. Weather
6. Scheduling factors (e.g. MNF last week?)
7. Probably a few other factors I'm forgetting.
What are the other pieces of the puzzle Projections don't include? Gut feel is the only one I can think of.
Just curious.
Boot.
Fred Taylor
Domanick Davis
Jamal Lewis
Marshall Faulk
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Travis Henry
Thomas Jones
Duce Staley
Corey Dillon
Curtis Martin
Rudi Johnson
Chris Brown
Do I really have to fully explain the difference between in-season one-week projections versus pre-season projections over the whole season? If I do, it will be like elemntary school - this is obvious stuff.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Nope.I don't do the projections - as dave indicated above, he works on them all week long.
In my estimation, his reasons for ranking McCown high are valid and strong. In my estimation, the most likely outcome for this weekend is that Peyton busts out of his fantasy slump and posts top-5 numbers in the 300/3 range. McCown I see in the 250+/maybe a couple TDs range, but not better than Peyton - mostly b/c I believe Green will go conservative and run more if the team gets a lead - which I believe is likely due to SF's defensive losses. OTOH, I believe that if Manning is in a groove and the Colts decide to unleash it through the air, Manning will continue passing for most of the game, regardless of the score.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
That is a great breakdown, most of which i agree 100%, if Mccown is ever going to have a better week than Manning, this could certainly be it, but i dont think you would honestly reccommend anyone start Mccown over Manning this week, or would you?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have NEVER seen DaKnee Green get conservative and run the ball more when his team has a substantial lead. He likes to play percentages. So much so that it is predictable. If his team has the lead (which it hasn't yet) and thus the expectation is for the defense to be playing run defense to get the offense off the field for another drive then DaKnee throws more because it is a higher percentage play in terms of likelyhood for having success.Arizona has passed the ball 134 times in 3 games allready. That is 45 times a game. No wonder Warner is hurt allready but that was to be expected. They have run the ball 58 times and I bet most of those have been on 2nd down and long (another percentage play). They are passing 66% of the time.Arizona has run 203 total offensive plays so far tied for the 3rd most on the league while only converting 33% of thier 3rd downs. Only 2 turnovers by the offense so far. I do not expect McCown to be as efficient in that regard.Arizona is giving up 5.8 yards/play against them with the least ammount of plays run against them out of the bottom 10 teams (excluding Houston who had a bye) while giving up the most points/game (32 pts/game avg). So teams have been scoring on them almost at will thus allowing Arizona's offense to be on the field more.The bright side of all of this is the only team worse than Arizona in this regard has been San Fransico. So this should be a high scoring game for both teams this weak. McCown might bring Arizonas rushing attempts up by scrambling a few times though.
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
If I start Manning and McCown outscores him by .6, 6, or 60 points, will I feel sick to my stomach afterwards? Nope.(edit: but if I bench Manning the week he finally goes off, you can bet I'll be spending the next morning puking my guts out.)
Last edited by a moderator:
Click on the "projections by team" tabs in the weekly projections.
The Swarm
Footballguy
Actually, seeing McCown at #10 makes me trust the FBG projections more. I expect the game in Mexico to be an all out scorefest from (in this order) McCown, Fitz, Rattay, Lloyd, and Battle. Two strong WR corps facing 1) poor, and 2) decimated defenses who are playing in hot, high altitude conditions in front of unfamiliar crowds. I fully expect McCown to be a top 10 QB this week. Seeing guys like McCown in the top ten weekly when they have ungodly matchups is perfectly reasonable. In fact, when the shark pool rumbles about a likely good game from someone, and that person is disrespected on the projections, it doesn't add up. It takes serious thought to project McCown above Manning, thought I hapen to agree with and respect seeing it in the projections.FWIW, I am starting McCown this week over Brooks, McNair, and Rattay.
Me too. His art is the bomb.But if McCown has never "done it before" then wouldn't that affect your projections? I would think that you would take all of that into account while making your projections, and if after all that you still come up with McCown ranked higher, then you should start him. Are you saying that you don't take these things into account when making your projections?B/c at some point the "has he ever done it before?" argument becomes valid. It's like ranking Willie Parker above LaDainian b/c Pitt is playing Minnesota and SD is playing Tampa Bay. Parker's got a much better matchup, but is his body of work strong enough to support starting him over LT2 just because of matchup?
Why? If you think that McCown will score more points than Manning, even if it is by a small amount, why would you start Manning?
The Jerk
Footballguy
Last week I started Brady over Bledsoe because I KNEW that Dallas would control the game and run the ball once they had the lead, while New England would need to pass to beat the Steelers. Last week, just like this week, they are next to themselves in the projections.I'm 1-2 instead of 2-1 based on that decision. And I'll struggle picking between these two again this week.Point being... the unexpected happens every week in the NFL. Don't be so sure it will be a pointfest in Mexico City. And even if the yards show up, the TDs don't always follow. Dodds doesn't need to apologize for his projections. It's his site!! If you want to start Manning, start him. If you want to start McCown, start him. It's your team.Dodds is as good as anyone in his projections, but FF projections as a rule are less reliable than weather forecasts due to so many variables. Which team is hungrier? Who gets the lead early? An early turnover or kicking game mishap, ...
David Dodds
Administrator
Not sure how it happened as I build it from the ground up, but I made a mistake with the receivers not matching the quarterback here. McCown's numbers will stay the same. Both Boldin and Fitzgerald will see nice increases.Tweaking the numbers now.
kutta
Footballguy
I think the real winner here is Rattay. The Arizona secondary is banged up, and he at least has shown that he can throw the ball around. McCown just plain out sucks. He will get some yards and a couple TD's, but he is a bad QB playing in his first start in quite awhile. I just don't see him having a huge game.
Perry Van Hook
Footballguy
Before I publish my comment on David's projections and the comments above, let me clarify by saying that I have the highest respect for Joe and David and the entire FBG site - it is one of the very best FF sites for the money and absolutely THE best msg boards/forums. (I was a member under the Captain Hook alias before this number so don't give me the five digit crap).That said, I absolutely cannot reconcile Dodd's rankings/projections with his comments in this thread (and I give him props for posting in this thread and changing the AZ reception yards as a response to a previous post).
The projections for McCown and the Arizona offense:
26/42 for 258 yards and 1.5 TDs
98 yards rushing and 0.8 TD (Shipp+Arrington+McCown)
"They positively will be throwing all day as they will not be able to stop ANYONE. This game will be high scoring."
How does this comment get reflected by 42 passing attempts (Warner was averaging 45 for the first three weeks) and only 258 yards and 1.5 TD against
one of the worst defenses in the league?
"McCown may not be that good, but he has quality receivers that will get open all day long. I think he has a huge game." IS NOT REFLECTED IN THOSE NUMBERS
The projections for Rattay and the San Francisco offense:
17/29 for 206 yards and 1.5 TDs
98 yards rushing and 0.8 TDs (Barlow+Gore+Rattay+Battle)
against one of the other terrible defenses in the NFL missing even more personnel in this week's game.
Again, " This game will be high scoring."
I think it will be high scoring too David, but how do the comments justify the projections or vice versa?
WeScoreMore
Footballguy
Okay now that Dodds adjusted the projections.. I cant believe this McCown bum is still higher than Manning 
11 Josh McCown ARI (vs SF)12 Eli Manning NYG (vs STL)
11 Josh McCown ARI (vs SF)12 Eli Manning NYG (vs STL) 
Homer @ RJ
Footballguy
I really hope nobody would be foolish enough to bench Manning for this guy.
David Dodds
Administrator
Our final numbers had Peyton ahead of McCown so why would they do that?
Homer @ RJ
Footballguy
Isn't this thread about you originally having McCown ranked over Manning?
Last edited by a moderator:
GhostOfAnAlias
Footballguy
Okay now that Dodds adjusted the projections..
I cant believe this McCown bum is still higher than Manning
11 Josh McCown ARI (vs SF)
12 Eli Manning NYG (vs STL)
sinatravolta
Footballguy
Um - actually, he's got 227 yards passing, a TD, and 19 yards rushing. Not too shabby.
WeScoreMore
Footballguy
He's looking better.
Hope that -2 from the fumble doesnt come back to haunt my scoreBurning Sensation
Footballguy
Im just glad i am not going to be the new "Keerock"
David Dodds
Administrator
hmmm....I think I might have nailed this one.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Nice job DD, although i never said Mcown was not a good play, just that he should not be ahead of Manning. Which obviously you agreed with by adjusting accordingly.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Why, did he outscore Manning?
- Status
