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Dodds (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Burning Sensation
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Those of you taking a look at Dodds' rankings and pulling one player to player comparison don't understand that ff is a game of percentages...it's not about right or wrong for a given week. It's about right or wrong over the course of the year.Personally I thought the McCown ranking was AWESOME given that almost every other major fantasy prognostication site didn't have the stones to put McCown in their top 10. Sure enough, McCown puts up a monster statline.Dodds 
anybody in this thread that was calling him out on his McCown projection.
anybody in this thread that was calling him out on his McCown projection.
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Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Josh over Peyton in three of my six leagues.
I don't think that's true. I play in 10+ leagues every year, and about 75% give four points for passing TDs.
that's been our FBG standard scoring system for awhile now. I'm sure there are plenty of leagues that still use it.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Dodds has been r0x0r this weekend. Nailed the McAllister prediction to a tee too.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I dont think anyone called him out for having Mccown high, just for having him above Manning.Those of you taking a look at Dodds' rankings and pulling one player to player comparison don't understand that ff is a game of percentages...it's not about right or wrong for a given week. It's about right or wrong over the course of the year.
Personally I thought the McCown ranking was AWESOME given that almost every other major fantasy prognostication site didn't have the stones to put McCown in their top 10. Sure enough, McCown puts up a monster statline.
Dodds
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Hmm, im not exactly sure what kind of scoring system you are using, but Mccown did not outscore Manning in any of my 8 leagues.Also, Shick, would you have started Mccown over Manning this week?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Again, i am not exactly sure what that is.
I dont think anyone called him out for having Mccown high, just for having him above Manning.Those of you taking a look at Dodds' rankings and pulling one player to player comparison don't understand that ff is a game of percentages...it's not about right or wrong for a given week. It's about right or wrong over the course of the year.
Personally I thought the McCown ranking was AWESOME given that almost every other major fantasy prognostication site didn't have the stones to put McCown in their top 10. Sure enough, McCown puts up a monster statline.
Dodds
Actually, Dodds ended up being more then 50% light on both of them. Looks like he was being called out on the wrong account.Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Reread my post, i was not whining, i was simply disagreeing that Mccown should be ranked higher than Manning. I never said i thought Mccown was not going to do well, as a mtter of fact, i agreed with Doods when he explained his feelings on why he was high on Mccon. If anyone can tell me they believe Mccown should have been ranked ahead of MAnning this week, please say so.
Kleck
Footballguy
I believe we're pretty clear on the scoring system used to rank players. Its a matter of record. I find it humorous that would now plead ignorance to this.What does my opinion of starting McCown over Manning have to do with the scoring system in question? But no, I wouldn't. However, its a matter of public record that I tagged McCown as my sleeper pick of the week. I stated it on KPUG radio in Bellingham Wednesday (one day before this thread was started) around 4:00 Pacific time. You can get a tape of the conversation from the station if you feel the need to confirm. The guys on the radio thought I was nuts after watching Seattle crush the Cardinals. I think next week it might come up in conversation.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Allow me to be more specific...For somebody to take one ranking and compare it to another ranking for a specific week and draw a conclusion from that week is poor analysis.I dont think anyone called him out for having Mccown high, just for having him above Manning.Those of you taking a look at Dodds' rankings and pulling one player to player comparison don't understand that ff is a game of percentages...it's not about right or wrong for a given week. It's about right or wrong over the course of the year.
Personally I thought the McCown ranking was AWESOME given that almost every other major fantasy prognostication site didn't have the stones to put McCown in their top 10. Sure enough, McCown puts up a monster statline.
Dodds
A better analysis would be to take the two players and their respective rankings and compare them to what the rest of the industry was ranking/projecting for the two players. On average Dodds did better than just about every other website I've seen this week because his McCown ranking was so much better than the others. His Manning ranking was a bit low, but his McCown ranking mroe than made up for that margin of error because it was so much better than the rest of the McCown rankings.
Even that analysis doesn't make much sense if you're trying to determine the accuracy of rankings. Anything can happen in a week of football statistics, which is why you need a larger dataset than just one week.
Further, Manning got the bulk of his points from TDs this week which are difficult to predict given the nature of how they are attained in NFL games. Yardage is a much better indicator in the average instance if one is determining the accuracy of a ranking IMHO.
Any statistics person will tell you Dodds' rankings here were very, very good.
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1 pt per 20 pass1 pt per 10 rush/rec
4 pt pass TD
6 pt rush/rec TD
-1 or -2 INT, I forget which
So knowing this, Dodds had the ranking of the two relative to each other spot on until he got beat up / influenced into modifying it. How funny is it that most of those arguing/discussing the projections were using the wrong scoring system.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
In all honesty, i thought the numbers were based on 6 points per TD pass. Granted i never looked, and i probably should have, but i didnt. Anyway, it would not have mattered, i would have still disagreed with ranking Mccown ahead of MAnning, as would 99% of the people on this board, so what is wrong with me pointing it out?
And for the last time, i NEVER said Mccown should be ranked lower, just that he should not be ahead of Manning.
Kleck
Footballguy
Burning Sensation,You were flat out wrong. There's no shame in it. We all make mistakes. I liked the Jacksonville defense this week against Denver. I fully expected them to crush Plummer. Oh well. Move on to next week.You decided to take the extra step in publicly calling someone out. You were wrong. Its been brought to the spot light because you started a thread on it. If you had been right, I can't imagine that you wouldn't have bumped this thread to make sure everyone knew it. Would you have done that? Maybe not.Anything other than "I was wrong" comes off as being ... well, I don't know what to call it, but it certainly isn't honorable.
Actually they wouldn't. What they would say is that they were pretty poor. I mean we are talking about misses by more then 50%. That said, he probably still owned the competition by comparision.One thing I have learned from this...a career projecting football stats for paying customers ranks just below the professions of garbage collector and teacher in the area of appreciation.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I stated in another thread this week that I thought the industry was underrating Mcnair this week...I was wrong. No big deal. The difference here though is that I didn't use your tone. You basically called Dodds out. You can do that, but if you were wrong you should expect the favor to be returned. 
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
First off, it was not my intent to "call David out". I was not trying to make him feel stupid or wrong, and like i pointed out that night, i think Dodds an FBG put out the best info(including cheatsheets) on the net. Actually, i dont have much to compare it to, because i have ben so happy here, i never really go anywhere else.And again, with the exception of not knowing the exact scoring system, which would not have affected my decision anyway, what was i wrong about? please, quote something i posted in this thread that i was wrong about. If you do, i will gladly admit i was wrong and move on.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
What tone? maybe i shoudl have PM'd him instead, but i just wanted to know if by his projections, would he have started Mccown over Manning. Obviously his answer was no, and he adjusted the sheets the next day.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Honestly, if Mccown outscored Manning by 50, i still would not think i was wrong. Obviously it worked out that way, but unless anyone can say they agreed Mccown was a better start than Manning before the games, then everyone else agrees with me.
the rover
Footballguy
uh, no. you were talking about projections, and how it was wrong to project mccown over manning this week.you were wrong. you were so sure that you were right that you made a big public display of your convictions, which were wrong, and apparently also based on bad facts, since you were criticizing projections without even bothering to know what they were based on.man up and admit it. give dodds his props and slink away from this quietly.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Major props to Dodds Since I don't have Manning, my issue was never Manning v McCown, but because of the flex in my league for a 2nd QB or another RB or WR I was looking at starting a 3rd stringer in one of those positions in place of Big Ben on a bye. At the beginning of the week McCown was not even on my radar. Excellent call 
Since I don't have Manning, my issue was never Manning v McCown, but because of the flex in my league for a 2nd QB or another RB or WR I was looking at starting a 3rd stringer in one of those positions in place of Big Ben on a bye. At the beginning of the week McCown was not even on my radar. Excellent call 
PoolShark
Footballguy
Just a thought, but perhaps FBG should modify their baseline for projections to match the majority of their readership. It seems that more people use 6 pt passing Tds than 4. Personally, I play in 3 leagues, two are 6, one is 5 (and the 5 pt league doesn't penalize for picks).
Also, lost in all this Manning/McCown banter is the burning question:
What are Peyton's projections for next week? 650/8?
Maybe R Wayne will finally "wake up."
Also, lost in all this Manning/McCown banter is the burning question:
What are Peyton's projections for next week? 650/8?
Maybe R Wayne will finally "wake up."
snogger
Footballguy
I am in 8 Leagues.Every one of them use 4 pts. per passing TD.Just a thought, but perhaps FBG should modify their baseline for projections to match the majority of their readership. It seems that more people use 6 pt passing Tds than 4. Personally, I play in 3 leagues, two are 6, one is 5 (and the 5 pt league doesn't penalize for picks).
Also, lost in all this Manning/McCown banter is the burning question:
What are Peyton's projections for next week? 650/8?
Maybe R Wayne will finally "wake up."
I have YET, and I have been playing FF since 1993, played in a league that gave 6pts. Per passing TD.
Not saying there is anything wrong with that scoring, but your post stated
And I truly don't believe that to be the case.
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JAA
Footballguy
While I like a lot of what BS posts, in addition to this thread, he was wrong. His point was right, no one would have ever started Manning over any Ari QB, so I still think BS was right with respect to the cheatsheets. However, Josh lit it up and Dodds put his balls out there for it.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Okay, now that the insanity has played out, I will be the voice of reason.BS -- Crappy players outshine superstars every week. We know this, and we see this. Now we all have superstars and crappy players on our teams, and we need to choose between them. If you had manning and Mccown on your team you really wouldn't even look at the thread to see who to start, but let's say you did. McCown was a quality start this week, perhaps his only time to be a quality start due to who they were playing. For someone like me with Plummer and Greise, seeing McCown up there gave me pause, and I picked him up and started him. (I will probably put up the #2 score this week and lose but anyhow)...TO see a guy ranked up there with manning makes us want to use him since we don't have manning. So that is point #1
Point #2: There are people on this site who have posted about benching manning against baltimore in week 1, so some people don't start their studs. When looking at the matchups, David's job is o rank what he thinks will happen FOR ONE GAME, not if Mcown played SF 10 times and Manning played TEnn 10 times. For this one game, with the stars aligned the way they are, it looked this way. If you want to say "the guy with the better name is who I start" then why even come to a place like this.
This was a SLEEPER pick. And it was dead on. I wouldn't have benched manning for McCown, but for marginal QBs compared to a bad one, that ranking helped me and I did start him. If you subscribe to "always start your studs", then this was a non issue.
Jules Winnfield
Footballguy
BS got , and by trying to squirm out of it instead of sacking up and admitting it, he continues to dig his hole deeper and deeper. That's just sad 
, and by trying to squirm out of it instead of sacking up and admitting it, he continues to dig his hole deeper and deeper. That's just sad
PoolShark
Footballguy
Please reference the links to 2 seperate polls a couple posts above mine. Obviously not a "huge" sample, but both show more people in 6 pt leagues than 4.It would be my guess that while 4 pt passing TDs used to be the standard (and remain so in many older leagues), 5 & 6 pts seems to be what is currently used in the majority of newer leagues. That's just a guess, and to honest, I'm not sure why that would be.I am in 8 Leagues.Every one of them use 4 pts. per passing TD.Just a thought, but perhaps FBG should modify their baseline for projections to match the majority of their readership. It seems that more people use 6 pt passing Tds than 4. Personally, I play in 3 leagues, two are 6, one is 5 (and the 5 pt league doesn't penalize for picks).
Also, lost in all this Manning/McCown banter is the burning question:
What are Peyton's projections for next week? 650/8?
Maybe R Wayne will finally "wake up."
I have YET, and I have been playing FF since 1993, played in a league that gave 6pts. Per passing TD.
Not saying there is anything wrong with that scoring, but your post stated
And I truly don't believe that to be the case.
PoolShark
Footballguy
While I admit that Dodds' prediction of a McCown explosion was balls-on, I think BS is receiving way too much grief over his stand. He never said McCown wasn't a good sleeper pick this week, and never said McCown wouldn't have a solid outing.BS got
That's just sad
The major point of his initial post (or at least my take on it) was that McCown was rated higher than Manning, and his question to Dodds was "Would you seriously advise someone to start them in that order?"
I'm not going back and reading the entire thread, but to the best of my knowledge that question was either never answered, or the answer was "No." Since the rankings were later changed and had Manning ranked higher, the issue seems to have become a moot point anyway.
snogger
Footballguy
The answer comes down to one answer.Never Bench your Studs!While I admit that Dodds' prediction of a McCown explosion was balls-on, I think BS is receiving way too much grief over his stand. He never said McCown wasn't a good sleeper pick this week, and never said McCown wouldn't have a solid outing.BS got
That's just sad
The major point of his initial post (or at least my take on it) was that McCown was rated higher than Manning, and his question to Dodds was "Would you seriously advise someone to start them in that order?"
I'm not going back and reading the entire thread, but to the best of my knowledge that question was either never answered, or the answer was "No." Since the rankings were later changed and had Manning ranked higher, the issue seems to have become a moot point anyway.
But,a s someone mentioned above.. If your were trying to decide between Plummer and McNown and saw Doods ranking had McCown rated so high you might want to follow that.
BS said he didn't mean to call out Dodds, yet his Topic heading and his post was clearly trying to call him out and he lost.
I'll give you a 99.9% chance had Manning Creamed McNown he would have been in here Tooting his own horn.
As it is he needs to say that Dodds rankings weren't so far off afterall and move on.
2 McCown,Josh ARI 1 385 46 32 2 0 32 6 0 1 0 0 0 30.53 Manning,Peyton IND 1 264 27 20 4 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 29.5The answer comes down to one answer.Never Bench your Studs!While I admit that Dodds' prediction of a McCown explosion was balls-on, I think BS is receiving way too much grief over his stand. He never said McCown wasn't a good sleeper pick this week, and never said McCown wouldn't have a solid outing.BS got
That's just sad
The major point of his initial post (or at least my take on it) was that McCown was rated higher than Manning, and his question to Dodds was "Would you seriously advise someone to start them in that order?"
I'm not going back and reading the entire thread, but to the best of my knowledge that question was either never answered, or the answer was "No." Since the rankings were later changed and had Manning ranked higher, the issue seems to have become a moot point anyway.
But,a s someone mentioned above.. If your were trying to decide between Plummer and McNown and saw Doods ranking had McCown rated so high you might want to follow that.
BS said he didn't mean to call out Dodds, yet his Topic heading and his post was clearly trying to call him out and he lost.
I'll give you a 99.9% chance had Manning Creamed McNown he would have been in here Tooting his own horn.
As it is he needs to say that Dodds rankings weren't so far off afterall and move on.
WeScoreMore
Footballguy
Actual 1 Manning,Eli 30.6 2 McCown,Josh 30.5 3 Manning,Peyton 29.5Projected7 Peyton Manning IND (at TEN) 19.111 Josh McCown ARI (vs SF) 18.312 Eli Manning NYG (vs STL) 17.8DD
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Your take on it is 100% correct. I have tried to explain that throughtout this thread, but for some reason nobody else can see that. I dont expect the Mods to agree with me as they think i was somehow taking a shot at their big buddy(which i was not) What i find funniest, is that everyone who thinks i was wrong does not have the sack to admit that they would have started Mccown over Manning(or vice versa)The major point of his initial post (or at least my take on it) was that McCown was rated higher than Manning, and his question to Dodds was "Would you seriously advise someone to start them in that order?"BS got
That's just sad
Either way, i never meant to call out Doods, my only intent was to ask him if he really thought, or reccommended that someone starts Mccown over Manning. The best way i thought to find that out was to post the question in the Sharkpool.
Also, had Manning outscored Mccown(which he did do in all 8 of my leagues) i would not have been back here to say "i told you so". I asked a question, Dodds pretty much answered it, and that was that. I do not know how it ever came down to who was right or wrong, i never said Mccown was a bad play.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Where in this do i say that Mccown was ranked too high? Where in this do i say i disagree with Dodds about Mccown? I started this thread to have one question answered, the bolded one. Again, i dont know how it turned into right or wrong.That is a great breakdown, most of which i agree 100%, if Mccown is ever going to have a better week than Manning, this could certainly be it, but i dont think you would honestly reccommend anyone start Mccown over Manning this week, or would you?
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