Domanick Davis (1 Viewer)

[Cunning Linguist]

page 10?

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I meant to say that 5-7 is an insufficient number statistically. It's not enough games to really prove that a player is the real deal (see: Koren Robinson). It is, however, enough games for me to get a feel for a RB's talent.

Agreed. Now, where have you seen him play MANY times, that justify your opinion that he will be an "elite" back?

I saw several of his 2003 games at Virginia Tech and several of his 2004 NFL games.

Only ONE season of college games?

Well obviously I saw him before that, but the most recent year seems the most pertinent. Also, he got quite a bit bigger throughout his years at Tech. He looked like a different guy by the time he left for the draft.

Well, he was in a RBBC before 2003 anyway. Point is, you are willing to take 5 games, and college games as a replacement for pro games.I like Jones, I like Davis. Davis is in a better system for fantasy points for sure, and if he can even stay as healthy as he did last year, he's a top 10 back.

You just keep using different criteria for different backs. We got it. You don't like Davis. Stop trying to back it up with data that doesn't support your argument.

I don't love the guy. I just give credit where credit is due.

 

[TheFanatic]

So what's the bottom line?

Is DD a buy or sell in dynasty leagues?

Didn't you see this kid's measurables in 2002? They were horrible. No way this kid can be a starting back. That and his carries between the 3rd and the 10th yard lines on either end of the field produce very similar numbers to Thomas Jones but it's only during road games in domes in the months of September and November. I wouldn't be trading for him.

 

[EBF]

Well, he was in a RBBC before 2003 anyway.  Point is, you are willing to take 5 games, and college games as a replacement for pro games.

Nope. I already admitted that Jones doesn't have the track record to justify his place in my top 5 dynasty RB list. That was the whole point. He hasn't played enough NFL games to warrant that ranking, but I've seen enough of him to believe that his talent level justifies a lofty position.

You just keep using different criteria for different backs.  We got it.  You don't like Davis.  Stop trying to back it up with data that doesn't support your argument.

I use the same criteria for every back. I ask myself if he's been productive. I then ask myself if there is reason to expect his production to increase or decrease. Talent, situation, player history, and a number of other factors are involved in the process, but it's mostly the same process for each guy.

 

[jurb26]

page 10?

I'm not going to waste my time reading through this entire thread again...... buuuut. Did anyone ever set an O/U on this thing? Is it too late to do so now?

 

[Cunning Linguist]

page 10.

 

[Cunning Linguist]

now its page 10

 

[Chase Stuart]

I don't really want to do this but here's a list of guys of some guys (not an all-inclusive list) that were fantasy studs for the short term with a low YPC:

James Wilder, TBB, 1984-1985

Wilder had 910 touches in two years for the Bucs, and ranked as the second and seventh best fantasy backs in 1984 and 1985. His YPC averages were 3.8 and 3.6. The next year he ranked 28th, which was the highest he ranked the remainder of his career.

Edgar Bennett, GBP, 1995

Bennett was the 9th best RB due to his 316 carries, 61 receptions and Brett Favre. Dorsey Levens stole the job from him soon thereafter.

Adrian Murrell, NYJ, 1996-1997

Murrell wasn't bad for the Jets -- over 2300 rushing yards those two years combined -- but they replaced him with Curtis Martin the next year. He averaged 3.6 ypc in 1997, but ranked 16th.

Robert Delpino, Ram, 1991

Delpino had 9 TDs and 55 receptions, enough to rank FIFTH despite a 3.2 ypc average. He ranked 80th in 1992, and 1993 was his last season in the league.

Dalton Hilliard, NOS, 1989

THIS is the guy that is the prototype for what we're talking about. How many remember this SAINT was the number one fantasy RB in 1989? Rushed for 1,262 yards and caught 514/5. Led the NFL in TDs (ahead of Jerry Rice) and was second in yards from scrimmage (behind Thurman Thomas). Hillard never ran for 500 yards again after 1989. How did that happen?

Despite being the number one fantasy RB, Hilliard really wasn't that impressive. His YPC was just 3.7 -- ugh. He led the NFL in touches. He was a CLASSIC compiler. 396 touches and just not a ton of production per touch. I don't know what happenned to him in 1990 (I assume he got hurt, he only played in 6 games) but he never ranked in the top 10 before or after his magical 1989 season. He simply got a ton of touches and was a great FANTASY RB, not NFL.

There are countless other examples of guys who put up great total numbers despite poor efficiency. Curtis Martin, Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton had low efficiency years too...just not very many of them.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Ah what the hell...IN @ 10.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

So what's the bottom line?

Is DD a buy or sell in dynasty leagues?

Didn't you see this kid's measurables in 2002? They were horrible. No way this kid can be a starting back. That and his carries between the 3rd and the 10th yard lines on either end of the field produce very similar numbers to Thomas Jones but it's only during road games in domes in the months of September and November. I wouldn't be trading for him.

 

[Marc Levin]

page 10?

I'm not going to waste my time reading through this entire thread again...... buuuut. Did anyone ever set an O/U on this thing? Is it too late to do so now?

Insane legs on this thread.Guaranteed, these exact same issues will be raised three more times before August.

 

[Cunning Linguist]

page 10?

I'm not going to waste my time reading through this entire thread again...... buuuut. Did anyone ever set an O/U on this thing? Is it too late to do so now?

Insane legs on this thread.Guaranteed, these exact same issues will be raised three more times before August.

about several other backs.

 

[stbugs]

page 10?

I'm not going to waste my time reading through this entire thread again...... buuuut. Did anyone ever set an O/U on this thing? Is it too late to do so now?

Insane legs on this thread.Guaranteed, these exact same issues will be raised three more times before August.

about several other backs.

True, almost 10 pages and DD for 2005 might actually be pretty boring. Barring injury, which can mess up any player, he has a pretty solid lock on the 2005 starting job and has a very high probability of producing good to great fantasy numbers.

 

[TheFanatic]

Selective stats, shady ommissions, blinders bigger than a winnebago over each eye, and downright deceptive representation of DD's performance last year.  This guy is a waste of time to argue with....

It almost sounds like you're describing yourself.

I'm sorry, but I don't selectively use stats to prove my point. I try to look at all the stats. To only use carries from inside the 3 or the 10 or whatever it was to compare TJ's and DD's nose for the endzone is absolutely deceptive. That discounts the other 90 yards on the field that a RB can score from. A nose for the endzone can be from anywhere, not just the redzone or the even narrower the 10 or 3. Why use the 10 or the 3? Because using the rest of the field blows your argument apart.

Using TJ's career year in terms of production to compare him to DD in a down year in terms of YPC but then saying that comparing DD to LT or Deuce (who had similar seasons) gives DD too much credit is a double standard. You are giving TJ too much credit, but that's OK. Giving DD any kind of credit is not?!?

Never, and I mean NEVER accuse me of using stats to deceive others about the performance of a player the way you did in this thread. It makes you look like a bigger piece of #### to accuse others of the shady stuff you pulled here.....The ironic thing is that you raised some valid points but you took backing those points too far. You would rather deceive to be perceived as right rather than prove your point with sound analysis and solid statistical backing. You have lost a ton of board cred here but I'm sure you will keep on yammering on with your inane babbling....Again, good luck in 2005.....

.......Fanatic

 

[EBF]

I'm sorry, but I don't selectively use stats to prove my point.  I try to look at all the stats.  To only use carries from inside the 3 or the 10 or whatever it was to compare TJ's and DD's nose for the endzone is absolutely deceptive.  That discounts the other 90 yards on the field that a RB can score from.  A nose for the endzone can be from anywhere, not just the redzone or the even narrower the 10 or 3.  Why use the 10 or the 3?  Because using the rest of the field blows your argument apart.

Let's recap:- I said that much of DD's production advantage over Thomas Jones had to do with a higher number scoring opportunities.- You laughed.- I gave statistics showing that Domanick Davis did in fact have a much higher number of carries inside the 10 yard line and inside the three yard line, and that his TD conversion rate was in fact lower than TJ's. - You accused me of being "absolutely deceptive." I think I supported my initial point. If TJ had been given the same amount of scoring opportunities (carries inside the 10) and maintained his averages then he would have had 12+ rushing TDs. That compares pretty well with DD's total of 10 rushing TDs inside the 10 and 13 rushing TDs total. How is this being deceptive? How does it not support exactly what I said?Your main point seems to be that I'm excluding very important information about carries outside the 10. First off, I don't know of a website that has that information readily available. Secondly, a carry outside the 10 doesn't seem like much of a scoring opportunity. Domanick Davis only scored three rushing TDs on carries outside of the ten. That's three more than Thomas Jones, but is it really enough to invalidate my initial claim? Not really, because Thomas Jones would've rushed for two more TDs inside the 10 than Davis if he had been given the same amount of carries in that range. That would've brought his rushing TD total to 12 compared to DD's 13. That seems pretty even. Domanick Davis was better at big play TDs, but Thomas Jones was more effective inside the 10. It almost balances out perfectly.

Using TJ's career year in terms of production to compare him to DD in a down year in terms of YPC but then saying that comparing DD to LT or Deuce (who had similar seasons) gives DD too much credit is a double standard.  You are giving TJ too much credit, but that's OK.  Giving DD any kind of credit is not?!?  

Here's a difference: prior to 2004, Thomas Jones had never been a full-time starter. This was his first whole season as the man. I don't deny that he had a reputation as a bust and that he had one of his best seasons, but I still think it's a better comparison than two Pro Bowlers playing well below their standard.Again, which is the more ridiculous comparison, Ashley Lelie and Randy Moss, or Ashley Lelie and Drew Bennett? It's not a perfectly analogous situation, but it's similar.Ashley Lelie - Young player with a small history (Domanick Davis)Drew Bennett - Undistinguished veteran who stepped up his production in 2004 (Thomas Jones)Randy Moss - Proven star who played below his standard in 2004 (LaDainian Tomlinson and Deuce McAllister)These guys all had somewhat similar receiving yards/game averages in 2004. However, I think people would call me crazy if I went around suggesting that Ashley Lelie is as good as Randy Moss because he had better numbers last year. I think most would agree that it's more sensible to compare his year to Drew Bennett, despite the fact that Bennett clearly had the best season of his career. It's not a perfect comparison, but it's better than putting Lelie in a class with Moss. He hasn't earned that right yet. Likewise, Davis hasn't earned the right to be in the same class as McAllister and Tomlinson.

Never, and I mean NEVER accuse me of using stats to deceive others about the performance of a player the way you did in this thread.  It makes you look like a bigger piece of #### to accuse others of the shady stuff you pulled here.....

I don't think your use of stats has been deceptive, but I think you're clearly biased and that your dependence on DD may be clouding your vision.

 

[Marc Levin]

Never, and I mean NEVER accuse me of using stats to deceive others about the performance of a player the way you did in this thread. It makes you look like a bigger piece of #### to accuse others of the shady stuff you pulled here.....The ironic thing is that you raised some valid points but you took backing those points too far. You would rather deceive to be perceived as right rather than prove your point with sound analysis and solid statistical backing. You have lost a ton of board cred here but I'm sure you will keep on yammering on with your inane babbling....Again, good luck in 2005.....

.......Fanatic

LINEOver it.

Keep the tone civil, please.

 

[jurb26]

OK, there is the big 10.

 

[Marc Levin]

LOL!But, this one goes to 11!

 

[jurb26]

LOL!

But, this one goes to 11!

Do I hear a sig bet?JK, good info in here guys and very enertaining stuff to say the least. Thanks to all participants.

 

[Marc Levin]

was attempting a li'l spinal tap humor.agree there's good info throughout.now this thread should fade

 

[MelvinTScupper]

was attempting a li'l spinal tap humor.

agree there's good info throughout.

now this thread should fade

nip

 

[Chase Stuart]

No love for my comments on Dalton Hilliard and other compiler RBs?

 

[MelvinTScupper]

No love for my comments on Dalton Hilliard and other compiler RBs?

No.

 

[Joe T]

I don't really want to do this but here's a list of guys of some guys (not an all-inclusive list) that were fantasy studs for the short term with a low YPC:

James Wilder, TBB, 1984-1985

Wilder had 910 touches in two years for the Bucs, and ranked as the second and seventh best fantasy backs in 1984 and 1985. His YPC averages were 3.8 and 3.6. The next year he ranked 28th, which was the highest he ranked the remainder of his career.

Edgar Bennett, GBP, 1995

Bennett was the 9th best RB due to his 316 carries, 61 receptions and Brett Favre. Dorsey Levens stole the job from him soon thereafter.

Adrian Murrell, NYJ, 1996-1997

Murrell wasn't bad for the Jets -- over 2300 rushing yards those two years combined -- but they replaced him with Curtis Martin the next year. He averaged 3.6 ypc in 1997, but ranked 16th.

Robert Delpino, Ram, 1991

Delpino had 9 TDs and 55 receptions, enough to rank FIFTH despite a 3.2 ypc average. He ranked 80th in 1992, and 1993 was his last season in the league.

Dalton Hilliard, NOS, 1989

THIS is the guy that is the prototype for what we're talking about. How many remember this SAINT was the number one fantasy RB in 1989? Rushed for 1,262 yards and caught 514/5. Led the NFL in TDs (ahead of Jerry Rice) and was second in yards from scrimmage (behind Thurman Thomas). Hillard never ran for 500 yards again after 1989. How did that happen?

Despite being the number one fantasy RB, Hilliard really wasn't that impressive. His YPC was just 3.7 -- ugh. He led the NFL in touches. He was a CLASSIC compiler. 396 touches and just not a ton of production per touch. I don't know what happenned to him in 1990 (I assume he got hurt, he only played in 6 games) but he never ranked in the top 10 before or after his magical 1989 season. He simply got a ton of touches and was a great FANTASY RB, not NFL.

There are countless other examples of guys who put up great total numbers despite poor efficiency. Curtis Martin, Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton had low efficiency years too...just not very many of them.

Are you saying Davis is similar to these guys?If so why?

 

[Joe T]

I might be a little higher on Davis than most, but I've got him at the #8 RB spot currently.I think a lot of people fall into the trap of downgrading backs like Davis and Barber because of their size and their perceived injury probability. The fact is these guys over produce where they are drafted because of this so they can be had year in and year out at a nice value.I'm not in love with Davis, but I like him as the #8 RB this year. I base a lot of this on opportunity alone. He gets a ton of 'garbage' yards because Carr loves to dump the ball off to him. Add that to the 18-20 carries a game he'll get and you have a player much like Barber who will give you very nice stats at a very good price.

 

[14464]

Ah you do know Jamal Lewis was picked WAY before DD in last year's draft, don't you? Do you also know that a year like Jamal Lewis had in 2004 doesn't come around every year, right? Why not look at last years stats DD vs Jamal Lewis. Care to guess who was better? Take out 4 of the worst games by DD and he was a better back AND you could have drafted him later.

If you league counts pts per reception then you must take that into account when drafting a RB. When a RB is one dimentional, the greater the chance for a change of pace back can come in = taking scoring opps from starting back.

Don't take out the worst four games. Take the whole year and DD had 254 points in my league and Lewis had 149. Even add in C. Taylor's 44 points in the 4 games Lewis missed and it is still not close. I am not even taking into account points for starting another RB for Davis when he was out.

I only took out 4 games from DD to compare same amount of games started...match same amount of games or not, DD was a MUCH better RB last year than Lewis and you didn't have to draft him in the first round.

 

[14464]

Ah you do know Jamal Lewis was picked WAY before DD in last year's draft, don't you? Do you also know that a year like Jamal Lewis had in 2004 doesn't come around every year, right? Why not look at last years stats DD vs Jamal Lewis. Care to guess who was better? Take out 4 of the worst games by DD and he was a better back AND you could have drafted him later.

If you league counts pts per reception then you must take that into account when drafting a RB. When a RB is one dimentional, the greater the chance for a change of pace back can come in = taking scoring opps from starting back.

Again, I'm not arguing that Davis wasn't productive from a fantasy standpoint. I'm arguing that he's not a great NFL player and that he's not a guy who warrants the amount of work that he's received. This doesn't mean I don't think he'll excel if he gets top 10 opportunities. It means I think his chances of getting top 10 opportunities are lower than his fantasy football reputation would lead one to believe. If you really want to know, I'd venture to guess that virtually every GM in the NFL would rather have a 100% Jamal Lewis than a 100% Domanick Davis. You can always find a third down back to come in and average 3.9 YPC while making some catches for you as your horse sits. You'll have a much harder time finding a workhorse type back who can average over 5.0 YPC and devastate defenses.

Again you must not watch DD play. He has clearly shown he isn't a "3rd down back" but again, I hope more people believe that he isn't that valueable or overrated or whatever, that way I can steal him again this year. I'll take DD in the second round or possibly early third round EVERY TIME or the likes of Lewis or Fred Taylor. Hopefully, no one agrees with me this year.

 

[14464]

If you really want to know, I'd venture to guess that virtually every GM in the NFL would rather have a 100% Jamal Lewis than a 100% Domanick Davis. You can always find a third down back to come in and average 3.9 YPC while making some catches for you as your horse sits. You'll have a much harder time finding a workhorse type back who can average over 5.0 YPC and devastate defenses.

I doubt it. The jail time tends to be a stickler.

 

[14464]

surprising that no one has mentioned this quote from december:

link to original story

His ultimate role with the Texans might be less than it is now.

Their offseason wish list could include a larger, more punishing running back, but unless they find another Fred Taylor or Shaun Alexander, Davis will be in the mix.

"The ideal thing would be to have Domanick and a big pounder," Capers said.

He likes the way the Pittsburgh Steelers alternate Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis. He likes how they complement each another and wear down defenses.

He hopes the Texans eventually have two runners that good. David Carr and Andre Johnson might account for the touchdowns, but the heart and soul of any Capers team will be a relentless running game.

Probably because that's info that isn't really helpful. What coach WOULDN'T want a big pounder to go along the likes of an LT or Priest or DD? Easier said than done and last time I looked the Texans don't have an established big pounder.

 

[Marc Levin]

Eleven!!

 

[TheFanatic]

It seems that the coach, whether or not if he's happy about his RB supposedly not being a good runner, will be playing to one of DD's strengths:Link to Texans Article

The immediate result will be more short throws, more dump-offs to backs and tight ends. But Carr believes as opposing defensive backs adjust to the short stuff, the deep routes will develop.

MORE short throws and dump offs to the backs? That could translate to 2K total yards for DDavis.....If only he could run the ball

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

surprising that no one has mentioned this quote from december:

link to original story

His ultimate role with the Texans might be less than it is now.

Their offseason wish list could include a larger, more punishing running back, but unless they find another Fred Taylor or Shaun Alexander, Davis will be in the mix.

"The ideal thing would be to have Domanick and a big pounder," Capers said.

He likes the way the Pittsburgh Steelers alternate Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis. He likes how they complement each another and wear down defenses.

He hopes the Texans eventually have two runners that good. David Carr and Andre Johnson might account for the touchdowns, but the heart and soul of any Capers team will be a relentless running game.

Probably because that's info that isn't really helpful. What coach WOULDN'T want a big pounder to go along the likes of an LT or Priest or DD? Easier said than done and last time I looked the Texans don't have an established big pounder.

Fred Taylor and Shaun Alexander don't exactly fit my idea of a big pounder.

 

[stbugs]

Ah you do know Jamal Lewis was picked WAY before DD in last year's draft, don't you? Do you also know that a year like Jamal Lewis had in 2004 doesn't come around every year, right? Why not look at last years stats DD vs Jamal Lewis. Care to guess who was better? Take out 4 of the worst games by DD and he was a better back AND you could have drafted him later.

If you league counts pts per reception then you must take that into account when drafting a RB. When a RB is one dimentional, the greater the chance for a change of pace back can come in = taking scoring opps from starting back.

Don't take out the worst four games. Take the whole year and DD had 254 points in my league and Lewis had 149. Even add in C. Taylor's 44 points in the 4 games Lewis missed and it is still not close. I am not even taking into account points for starting another RB for Davis when he was out.

I only took out 4 games from DD to compare same amount of games started...match same amount of games or not, DD was a MUCH better RB last year than Lewis and you didn't have to draft him in the first round.

I know, that was why I thought the Lewis comparison was odd. Since we are talking about Fantasy, not real NFL, the only reason why you would want Lewis over DD is the risk that DD gets replaced which is easily mitigated by drafting his replacement. I actually got to draft him in the 10th round since I picked him up on waivers in 2003, so I get to keep him as a 9th round pick for '05. I will be watching training camps and I actually hope that Morency, while not beating out DD, easily climbs to the #2 spot. I would think in my league (keeper, not dynasty with no rookie draft) that Morency won't get drafted at all, besides by me possibly and until Capers is fired, the Texans RB will have good fantasy value.