Donovan McNabb, QB, Washington Redskins (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Donovan McNabb, QB, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Donovan McNabb Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Gottabesweet]

3807 26 16 4 rush tds

 

[TS Garp]

He'll certainly be one of the most debated and watched players of the season. Although he won't have Jackson and Maclin to stretch defenses, I do think Moss has something left, and I like Cooley and the emerging Fred Davis a lot. If Kelly or Thomas can take a step forward, the Redskins may have a surprisingly effective offense, and remember that Campbell was able to put up 3,618/20 in this offense last year, and that was with a lot of injuries.

I do recognize that McNabb will turn 34 this season and I'm projecting him to miss one game:

470 attempts/280 completions, 3420 yards, 20 td's, 12 int's, 38 rushes, 145 yards, 2 rushing td's

 

[Polish Hammer]

He'll certainly be one of the most debated and watched players of the season. Although he won't have Jackson and Maclin to stretch defenses, I do think Moss has something left, and I like Cooley and the emerging Fred Davis a lot. If Kelly or Thomas can take a step forward, the Redskins may have a surprisingly effective offense, and remember that Campbell was able to put up 3,618/20 in this offense last year, and that was with a lot of injuries.

I do recognize that McNabb will turn 34 this season and I'm projecting him to miss one game:

470 attempts/280 completions, 3420 yards, 20 td's, 12 int's, 38 rushes, 145 yards, 2 rushing td's

Garp, keep in mind that this offense will be a new one under a new HC and OC. Also, this could mean a new blocking scheme for the OL which could provide some growing pains. I'm not saying if the new offense will help or hurt the production, just that it will be different.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Passing:350/510 for 3,700 yards - 25 TDs - 12 INTs

Rushing: 40 for 250 yards - 3 TDs

He has to put up better numbers than Jason Campbell did last year... right?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The thing about McNabb is that he is now paird with Mike Shanahan. I can't think of too many years where John Elway, Brian Griese, and even Jay Cutler were posting top 3-5 numbers. Shanny is going to change the tide in Washingotn but it will be a process. Throw McNabb's numbers from Philly out the window because this is entirely different with lots of different pieces on offense and defense which will have osme considerable impact.

Positves: Good head coach. Familiar with the West Coast Offense. Chance for him to compete against his former team twice a year.

Negatives: Skill position payers leave a lot ot be desired. Santana Moss is not a true #1 WR to most. The rest is largely unproven. The defense is several notches below the one he left in Philly. May not seem to matter on the surface but good defenses give you more scoring opps on offense.

Projection: 3,500 yds, 20 Tds, 10 Int

You cannot project big numbers for him this season. After the top QBs come off the board, then you would want to turn your attention to McNabb and still I think he would need to be paired with another solid QB for you to be comfortable. He will not be an every week starter as the season unfolds.

 

[Bird]

McNabb and Shanahan should be a good fit but this year will be a learning one. There will be highs and lows. He would be a great member of a QBBC for teams waiting to draft that position. Age seems to have caught up to his legs so he no longer can be relied upon to get as many fantasy points with his rushing.

Projections: 494att/3655/7.4 YPA/23/14 27car/95/1 for a ranking of QB12

 

[Sebowski]

Negatives: Skill position payers leave a lot ot be desired. Santana Moss is not a true #1 WR to most. The rest is largely unproven. The defense is several notches below the one he left in Philly. May not seem to matter on the surface but good defenses give you more scoring opps on offense.

McNabb only had a true #1 WR in Philly when TO was there. If Washington wasn't fiddling around with a 3-4 and were going to stay with the same D as last year I'd say they are just as good as Philly's D if not better. Installing a 3-4 without the proper personnel has me worries though.

 

[JPeso]

Negatives: Skill position payers leave a lot ot be desired. Santana Moss is not a true #1 WR to most. The rest is largely unproven. The defense is several notches below the one he left in Philly. May not seem to matter on the surface but good defenses give you more scoring opps on offense.

McNabb only had a true #1 WR in Philly when TO was there. If Washington wasn't fiddling around with a 3-4 and were going to stay with the same D as last year I'd say they are just as good as Philly's D if not better. Installing a 3-4 without the proper personnel has me worries though.

Time to get on board with DeSean Jackson.

 

[Sebowski]

Negatives: Skill position payers leave a lot ot be desired. Santana Moss is not a true #1 WR to most. The rest is largely unproven. The defense is several notches below the one he left in Philly. May not seem to matter on the surface but good defenses give you more scoring opps on offense.

McNabb only had a true #1 WR in Philly when TO was there. If Washington wasn't fiddling around with a 3-4 and were going to stay with the same D as last year I'd say they are just as good as Philly's D if not better. Installing a 3-4 without the proper personnel has me worries though.

Time to get on board with DeSean Jackson.

After McNabb is gone. I wouldn't say he was a "true #1" last year.

 

[rzrback77]

There are a lot of changes to consider in Washington for 2010. They have a new staff so everything will be different. They have a new QB. Their schedule looks very difficult, two games each with Dallas, Philly and NY Giants. Houston, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Minnesota. That is eleven tough contests. Their offensive line was terrible last season and they added the #4 overall pick Trent Williams, but will he and FA signee Artis Hicks improve their line significantly?

I like the Redskins receivers. Santana Moss is a quality player that can get open. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly are both third year second round guys that improved last season. Cooley has always been a solid TE and last year while he was injured Fred Davis showed that he can play. Portis and Johnson both are fairly good receiving RBs. I just don't think that the OL struggles combined with all the changes and the tough schedule lead me to expect solid offensive stats.

Donovan McNabb has a May ADP of QB 11 and 77 overall. If a few QBs have outstanding preseasons, he could drop even further down and make a solid target for those that take their QBs late and try to go QBBC.

D. McNabb 16 gms 540 attempts 315 completions 58.3% 3780 yards 7.0 ypa 24 TDs and 10 ints 45 rushes for 185 yards 4.1 ypc and 2 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

There are a lot of changes to consider in Washington for 2010. They have a new staff so everything will be different. They have a new QB. Their schedule looks very difficult, two games each with Dallas, Philly and NY Giants. Houston, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Minnesota. That is eleven tough contests. Their offensive line was terrible last season and they added the #4 overall pick Trent Williams, but will he and FA signee Artis Hicks improve their line significantly?I like the Redskins receivers. Santana Moss is a quality player that can get open. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly are both third year second round guys that improved last season. Cooley has always been a solid TE and last year while he was injured Fred Davis showed that he can play. Portis and Johnson both are fairly good receiving RBs. I just don't think that the OL struggles combined with all the changes and the tough schedule lead me to expect solid offensive stats.Donovan McNabb has a May ADP of QB 11 and 77 overall. If a few QBs have outstanding preseasons, he could drop even further down and make a solid target for those that take their QBs late and try to go QBBC.D. McNabb 16 gms 540 attempts 315 completions 58.3% 3780 yards 7.0 ypa 24 TDs and 10 ints 45 rushes for 185 yards 4.1 ypc and 2 TDs

The problem I have with McNabb is he alsways seems like a great bet but ends up getting hurt. As for these projections . . .He's played in 16 games once in 6 years.He's had 3780 yards once in 5 seasons and only twice in his 11 year career.He's had 24 passing TD once in the past 8 years.That's not to say that he couldn't hit those totals . . . but I would say the odds are against it.

 

[rzrback77]

There are a lot of changes to consider in Washington for 2010. They have a new staff so everything will be different. They have a new QB. Their schedule looks very difficult, two games each with Dallas, Philly and NY Giants. Houston, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Minnesota. That is eleven tough contests. Their offensive line was terrible last season and they added the #4 overall pick Trent Williams, but will he and FA signee Artis Hicks improve their line significantly?I like the Redskins receivers. Santana Moss is a quality player that can get open. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly are both third year second round guys that improved last season. Cooley has always been a solid TE and last year while he was injured Fred Davis showed that he can play. Portis and Johnson both are fairly good receiving RBs. I just don't think that the OL struggles combined with all the changes and the tough schedule lead me to expect solid offensive stats.Donovan McNabb has a May ADP of QB 11 and 77 overall. If a few QBs have outstanding preseasons, he could drop even further down and make a solid target for those that take their QBs late and try to go QBBC.D. McNabb 16 gms 540 attempts 315 completions 58.3% 3780 yards 7.0 ypa 24 TDs and 10 ints 45 rushes for 185 yards 4.1 ypc and 2 TDs

The problem I have with McNabb is he alsways seems like a great bet but ends up getting hurt. As for these projections . . .He's played in 16 games once in 6 years.He's had 3780 yards once in 5 seasons and only twice in his 11 year career.He's had 24 passing TD once in the past 8 years.That's not to say that he couldn't hit those totals . . . but I would say the odds are against it.

With my projections, I do not assume injuries. I am not saying he will not miss games, but rather that I am projecting based on him playing the full season.

 

[615gators]

have you seen the news that McNabb hopes to end his career in Redskins. http://www.click-jerseys.com/washington-re...washington.html

 

[fightingillini]

Donovan McNabb will be difficult to project this year. A lot will depend on the following:

1) how quickly he gels with his new WRs and TEs

2) how the running game shapes up

3) Does the OL improve....because if it doesn't, I can't see McNabb staying upright all 16 games.

His WRs aren't as good as in PHI, but they have some upside. He's going to be a little inconsistent this year.....not atypical of a QB changing teams.....he probably will get of the gate slow.....so I obviously don't want to rely on him as a starter.

3450 yds passing, 21 TD, 13 Int

150 yds rushing, 2 TD

 

[Chase Stuart]

If you're not projecting injuries, McNabb seems like a steal at his current ADP.

Last year, Eagles quarterbacks scored the 2nd most fantasy points in the league last season (behind Rodgers and GB), largely because of McNabb. He scored 77% of the fantasy points scored by Kolb/Vick/Garcia and was the quarterback for 12.6 of the games. You could throw Brees and the Saints over McNabb and the Eagles if you like, since had Brees not sat in week 17 they likely would have passed them. But McNabb and the Eagles were incredibly effective fantasy players last year.

The Redskins? They ranked 15th in fantasy points by their QBs, which was almost entirely Jason Campbell. Campbell's ADP has fallen through the floor, though. He was also 15th last year on a per-adjusted game basis, but now has an ADP of QB25. Going to Oakland is bad, of course, but it's not like Oakland's supporting cast is that much worse than Washington's. I think Campbell's ADP is low because most people think he's not that good.

But McNabb is good. And Kolb, well, his ADP is QB11, which means people must have doubts about him despite playing in the Eagles offense. So maybe the Eagles scored so many fantasy points from the QB position last year because McNabb's a good QB. So why again does McNabb have an ADP of QB11?

Something seems off. How does the man responsible for a team's #2 rank in fantasy points scored by the team's quarterbacks go to a new team, see his ADP fall to QB14 despite that team ranking 15th last season, and watch his backup have an ADP of QB11? Either McNabb or Kolb is undervalued, IMO. And it's probably McNabb. He's going in the early 8th in non-PPR leagues and the mid-9th in PPR leagues. I would love to get him there. Heck, I wouldn't mind hedging my bets and drafting McNabb *and* Kolb. I think the odds are likely that one of them is a top-7 QB this season.

 

[Meast21]

If you're not projecting injuries, McNabb seems like a steal at his current ADP.Last year, Eagles quarterbacks scored the 2nd most fantasy points in the league last season (behind Rodgers and GB), largely because of McNabb. He scored 77% of the fantasy points scored by Kolb/Vick/Garcia and was the quarterback for 12.6 of the games. You could throw Brees and the Saints over McNabb and the Eagles if you like, since had Brees not sat in week 17 they likely would have passed them. But McNabb and the Eagles were incredibly effective fantasy players last year.The Redskins? They ranked 15th in fantasy points by their QBs, which was almost entirely Jason Campbell. Campbell's ADP has fallen through the floor, though. He was also 15th last year on a per-adjusted game basis, but now has an ADP of QB25. Going to Oakland is bad, of course, but it's not like Oakland's supporting cast is that much worse than Washington's. I think Campbell's ADP is low because most people think he's not that good.But McNabb is good. And Kolb, well, his ADP is QB11, which means people must have doubts about him despite playing in the Eagles offense. So maybe the Eagles scored so many fantasy points from the QB position last year because McNabb's a good QB. So why again does McNabb have an ADP of QB11?Something seems off. How does the man responsible for a team's #2 rank in fantasy points scored by the team's quarterbacks go to a new team, see his ADP fall to QB14 despite that team ranking 15th last season, and watch his backup have an ADP of QB11? Either McNabb or Kolb is undervalued, IMO. And it's probably McNabb. He's going in the early 8th in non-PPR leagues and the mid-9th in PPR leagues. I would love to get him there. Heck, I wouldn't mind hedging my bets and drafting McNabb *and* Kolb. I think the odds are likely that one of them is a top-7 QB this season.

Very interesting point Chase, thanks. On top of all that Campbell being QB15, with possibly the worst offensive line in the league, shows how undervalued he is at current ADP of QB25.

 

[dgreen]

How does the man responsible for a team's #2 rank in fantasy points scored by the team's quarterbacks go to a new team, see his ADP fall to QB14 despite that team ranking 15th last season, and watch his backup have an ADP of QB11?

As Meast pointed out, the Redskins OL was horrendous last season...but they still ranked 15th. On top of that, the coaching staff was not a legit NFL coaching staff...but they still ranked 15th. Their QB was average...but they still ranked 15th. Now they have:1) An upgraded OL (assuming health). I loved Chris Samuels, but I wouldn't surprised if Trent Williams 2010 is nearly equal to Samuels 2009 (pre-injury). Williams will almost certainly be better than everything else the Redskins used at LT last year. Jamal Brown is a MAJOR upgrade at RT. Stephon Heyer was the primary starter there last year and I won't be shocked at all if he's out of the league soon. Artis Hicks won't be worse than the rotating RG position last season. Depth is still a problem, though. Injuries could derail this team if they don't add some solid backups.2) A top notch coaching staff with a legit management structure. Jim Zorn was woefully unqualified. He was in over his head. To make matters worse, there was total organizational chaos. As unqualified as Zorn was, he wasn't even allowed to reach his full potential. Not sure I need to say much about the new coaching staff.3) A Pro Bowl caliber QB. I liked Jason Campbell. I kept thinking he was going to progress. But, he never did. He's simply average. With McNabb, they have a guy who should make more plays in the passing game. Campbell missed way too many opportunities for points.Right now, I have McNabb going for: 317/510, 3,695 yards, 23 TDs, 11 INTs.

 

[baconisgood]

Last year, Eagles quarterbacks scored the 2nd most fantasy points in the league last season (behind Rodgers and GB), largely because of McNabb. He scored 77% of the fantasy points scored by Kolb/Vick/Garcia and was the quarterback for 12.6 of the games. You could throw Brees and the Saints over McNabb and the Eagles if you like, since had Brees not sat in week 17 they likely would have passed them.

While the conclusion that Mcnabb was an effective fantasy QB last year is warranted the evidence given is taken out of context.In Kolb's 2 starts he put up 718 yards and 5 Tds- a 16 game pace of 5744 yards and 40 TDs- which would be the greatest fantasy season by a QB. Without Kolb's #s in those two games the 16 pro rated scoring of the Eagles QBs is 4185 yards 26.2 TDs passing, 268 yards 4.57 TDs rushing. Vick accounted for 95 rushing yards and 2 rushing Tds- since those plays were mostly designed for Vick and won't be (are unlikely to be for McNabb) I don't see why you would include his rushing totals in any projection for McNabb beyond giving Mcnabb those extra snaps. So when I look at the fact that the #2 QB put up MONSTROUS numbers in that system/surrounded by that talent and that a significant portion of the QB running points came from a special case that won't exist in WAS I would say that mentioning the PHI as the #2 QB attack and calling McNabb as "the man responsible" is pretty misleading.

The Redskins? They ranked 15th in fantasy points by their QBs, which was almost entirely Jason Campbell. Campbell's ADP has fallen through the floor, though. He was also 15th last year on a per-adjusted game basis, but now has an ADP of QB25. Going to Oakland is bad, of course, but it's not like Oakland's supporting cast is that much worse than Washington's. I think Campbell's ADP is low because most people think he's not that good.

I don't think this kind of thinking is warranted in FF, you could guarantee that Campbell would be the 15th best QB again this year and he wouldn't be worth an ADP of QB 15- he would be worth substantially less. Why? Simply because there isn't much difference between the 15th best QB and the 20th or 22nd best QB on a ppg basis in the NFL, and in most leagues there will be a couple of guys in that range who are on waivers at any one time. If Campbell is viewed as the 15th best QB with little upside (as many view him) then it makes more sense to grab higher upside guys like Vince Young, or Carson Palmer or Joe Flacco who all finished below him last year and who will probably at least give you close enough to JC production with at least a chance of landing top 10.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here were the numbers from last year, along with an average of the two:

cmp att pyd ptd int rsh ryd rtd FPPHI QB 335 552 4380 27 13 69 232 5 381.2WAS QB 339 530 3762 20 15 47 236 1 287.7AVG 337 541 4071 23.5 14 58 234 3 334.5
If McNabb is the QB for every game, I don't think 4000/24 are unreasonable targets.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here were the numbers from last year, along with an average of the two:

cmp   att	pyd	ptd   int  rsh  ryd   rtd FPPHI QB	335   552	4380   27	13   69   232   5   381.2WAS QB	339   530	3762   20	15   47   236   1   287.7AVG	   337   541	4071   23.5  14   58   234   3   334.5

If McNabb is the QB for every game, I don't think 4000/24 are unreasonable targets.

I realize you said "if healthy," but McNabb has yet to throw for 4K yards.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Last year, Eagles quarterbacks scored the 2nd most fantasy points in the league last season (behind Rodgers and GB), largely because of McNabb. He scored 77% of the fantasy points scored by Kolb/Vick/Garcia and was the quarterback for 12.6 of the games. You could throw Brees and the Saints over McNabb and the Eagles if you like, since had Brees not sat in week 17 they likely would have passed them.

While the conclusion that Mcnabb was an effective fantasy QB last year is warranted the evidence given is taken out of context.In Kolb's 2 starts he put up 718 yards and 5 Tds- a 16 game pace of 5744 yards and 40 TDs- which would be the greatest fantasy season by a QB. Without Kolb's #s in those two games the 16 pro rated scoring of the Eagles QBs is 4185 yards 26.2 TDs passing, 268 yards 4.57 TDs rushing. Vick accounted for 95 rushing yards and 2 rushing Tds- since those plays were mostly designed for Vick and won't be (are unlikely to be for McNabb) I don't see why you would include his rushing totals in any projection for McNabb beyond giving Mcnabb those extra snaps. So when I look at the fact that the #2 QB put up MONSTROUS numbers in that system/surrounded by that talent and that a significant portion of the QB running points came from a special case that won't exist in WAS I would say that mentioning the PHI as the #2 QB attack and calling McNabb as "the man responsible" is pretty misleading.

The Redskins? They ranked 15th in fantasy points by their QBs, which was almost entirely Jason Campbell. Campbell's ADP has fallen through the floor, though. He was also 15th last year on a per-adjusted game basis, but now has an ADP of QB25. Going to Oakland is bad, of course, but it's not like Oakland's supporting cast is that much worse than Washington's. I think Campbell's ADP is low because most people think he's not that good.

I don't think this kind of thinking is warranted in FF, you could guarantee that Campbell would be the 15th best QB again this year and he wouldn't be worth an ADP of QB 15- he would be worth substantially less. Why? Simply because there isn't much difference between the 15th best QB and the 20th or 22nd best QB on a ppg basis in the NFL, and in most leagues there will be a couple of guys in that range who are on waivers at any one time. If Campbell is viewed as the 15th best QB with little upside (as many view him) then it makes more sense to grab higher upside guys like Vince Young, or Carson Palmer or Joe Flacco who all finished below him last year and who will probably at least give you close enough to JC production with at least a chance of landing top 10.

I used the #2 ranking of the Eagles as a shorthand. I begin my ranking of quarterbacks with a statistic called adjusted fantasy points per adjusted game, which adjusts the player's fantasy points by his strength of schedule (McNabb had a harder than average schedule last year) and adjusts his games played number by the number of passes + rushes the QB had in a game as a percentage of the percentage of passes + rushes other QBs had in a game. McNabb played in 12.6 games last season, and his adjFP/adjG average was fourth best in the NFL. Kolb's numbers look good, but I think you're being a bit misleading. McNabb actually averaged *more* yards per attempt than Kolb last year. Kolb certainly wasn't on a record breaking pace of production last season -- he just happened to have a 51 attempt game in his small sample size of two games. Of course, had McNabb played that game, he may have thrown 51 passes, and it stands to reason he would have gained even more yards since he tended to gain more yards per pass than Kolb.Regardless, McNabb was uber productive last season. If you factor out his missed time, and realize that he performed well against a difficult schedule, you can see that he was elite. Now the question is whether *he* was elite or the Eagles supporting cast was elite (or both). But that just makes me think that either McNabb or Kolb will be elite again this season. And both are available at discounts right now.

 

[dgreen]

Here were the numbers from last year, along with an average of the two:

cmp   att	pyd	ptd   int  rsh  ryd   rtd FPPHI QB	335   552	4380   27	13   69   232   5   381.2WAS QB	339   530	3762   20	15   47   236   1   287.7AVG	   337   541	4071   23.5  14   58   234   3   334.5

If McNabb is the QB for every game, I don't think 4000/24 are unreasonable targets.

I realize you said "if healthy," but McNabb has yet to throw for 4K yards.

But he has surpassed 250 yards per game four times (all in the last six years), which is the pace needed to break 4,000 yards in a full season.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here were the numbers from last year, along with an average of the two:

cmp   att	pyd	ptd   int  rsh  ryd   rtd FPPHI QB	335   552	4380   27	13   69   232   5   381.2WAS QB	339   530	3762   20	15   47   236   1   287.7AVG	   337   541	4071   23.5  14   58   234   3   334.5

If McNabb is the QB for every game, I don't think 4000/24 are unreasonable targets.

I realize you said "if healthy," but McNabb has yet to throw for 4K yards.

True, But not particularly relevant when McNabb has been on a 4K pace every single season for the last six seasons. And on a 4400+ pace the last six years.Below are his number of adjusted games (as described above), passing yards in those seasons, and then passing yards per 16.0 games. Projecting a guy who was on a 4,510 yard per 16.0 game pace last season and has been on a 4200+ yard pace per 16.0 games in five of the last six seasons to throw for over 4,000 yards if he stays healthy isn't a stretch.

Year	 AdjG	Yards   Yards/16G2000	 15.9	3365	33762001	 14.8	3233	34862002	  9.9	2289	36862003	 15.9	3216	32392004	 13.8	3875	44942005	  8.5	2507	47382006	  9.1	2647	46422007	 13.3	3324	40022008	 14.9	3916	42072009	 12.6	3553	451004-09	12.0	3304	4432

 

[David Yudkin]

Here were the numbers from last year, along with an average of the two:

cmp   att	pyd	ptd   int  rsh  ryd   rtd FPPHI QB	335   552	4380   27	13   69   232   5   381.2WAS QB	339   530	3762   20	15   47   236   1   287.7AVG	   337   541	4071   23.5  14   58   234   3   334.5

If McNabb is the QB for every game, I don't think 4000/24 are unreasonable targets.

I realize you said "if healthy," but McNabb has yet to throw for 4K yards.

True, But not particularly relevant when McNabb has been on a 4K pace every single season for the last six seasons. And on a 4400+ pace the last six years.Below are his number of adjusted games (as described above), passing yards in those seasons, and then passing yards per 16.0 games. Projecting a guy who was on a 4,510 yard per 16.0 game pace last season and has been on a 4200+ yard pace per 16.0 games in five of the last six seasons to throw for over 4,000 yards if he stays healthy isn't a stretch.

Year	 AdjG	Yards   Yards/16G2000	 15.9	3365	33762001	 14.8	3233	34862002	  9.9	2289	36862003	 15.9	3216	32392004	 13.8	3875	44942005	  8.5	2507	47382006	  9.1	2647	46422007	 13.3	3324	40022008	 14.9	3916	42072009	 12.6	3553	451004-09	12.0	3304	4432

I hear you, which is why I've been drafting McNabb this year and letting others dive head first into taking QBs in the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds.

 

[Chewbanks]

The key to McNabb has always been a PPG analysis. You know you're going to lose him for at least 3-5 games a year (including partial games played) so you certainly have to have a good backup. But when he's in the lineup healthy hes a very good fantasy QB.

 

[baconisgood]

Kolb's numbers look good, but I think you're being a bit misleading. McNabb actually averaged *more* yards per attempt than Kolb last year. Kolb certainly wasn't on a record breaking pace of production last season -- he just happened to have a 51 attempt game in his small sample size of two games. Of course, had McNabb played that game, he may have thrown 51 passes, and it stands to reason he would have gained even more yards since he tended to gain more yards per pass than Kolb.

Kolb had 23 yards on 11 passes in a game he entered due to McNabb's inury with no time with the 1st unit and a 38-10 lead. In the 2 games he started he averaged 8.4 y/a. Since McNabb has essentially 3 games in his 148 game career with equivalent passing yards to Kolb's game against NO I don't think "it stands to reason" that he would have been used in the same way given that it would be a rare way for McNabb to be used.

Regardless, McNabb was uber productive last season. If you factor out his missed time, and realize that he performed well against a difficult schedule, you can see that he was elite. Now the question is whether *he* was elite or the Eagles supporting cast was elite (or both). But that just makes me think that either McNabb or Kolb will be elite again this season. And both are available at discounts right now.

Both McNabb and Kolb are in new situations we haven't seen them in before and that adds uncertainty. McNabb is throwing to a group of recivers, TEs and barring a Westbrook signing, RBs he has never thrown to before. He will be communicating with an offensive line he has never stood behind before (with two probable starters who weren't on the team last year to work in) and playing in a new system for a new head coach- one who has actually show a willingness to give his starting RB more than 18.5 rushes a game (west brooks career high) multiple times. Kolb on the other hand has yet to show he can handle the pounding of a 16 game season (McNabb averaged 38 sacks per 16 games for his career + all those hits from his running), has yet to show he can handle the pressure of being the #1 QB from wire to wire and has yet to show that he can handle how defenses will adjust to him throughout the year as they get more film on him and start to expose weaknesses in his game.

So this conclusion that either it was the system and Kolb is undervalued or it was McNabb and he is undervalued is unwarranted.