Don't sleep on Donte Moncrief: Draft Day steal (1 Viewer)

[Bfrahm3]

What kind of dynasty outlook are you guys seeing for him? He just turned 24.

I've been a believer in him since he was drafted. While he hasn't been incredible he came into the league very raw and still learning the game, he actually did a lot better his rookie year then most people thought and then improved even better his second year before Luck got hurt. Then they come back year 3 and start off very good again until moncreif gets hurt.

if both are healthy I expect a really good year from him, I was never one to say he would be the #1 guy over Hilton and don't think he will but I could see top 25.

While their stats aren't super similar as far as first 3 years in the league I have been thinking of Crabtree as a good comparison for him and a good example of what I could see moncrief doing if healthy 

 

[grateful zed]

NEWS ARTICLES > COLTS HAVE HAD TRADE TALKS ABOUT MONCRIE...

PUBLISHED TUE OCT 31 9:14:00 A.M. MT 2017 

(Rotoworld) NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports the Colts have had trade talks about Donte Moncrief.

Analysis: The report makes perfect sense considering Moncrief is entering the final year of his deal, and the Colts seemingly have not made a serious effort to re-sign him. Stuck in fantasy purgatory with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, a move would also be great for Moncrief's fantasy value. Indy has until 4 p.m. ET today to find a deal.

 

[flapgreen]

I'm in a deep coma 

 

[spider321]

Bump for absolutely no reason whatsoever again!

 

[bigupsetter]

Bump for absolutely no reason whatsoever again!

Thought he said bum, which is what this years numbers are

 

[Faust]

Limited WR free-agent crop could keep Donte Moncrief with Colts

 

[Faust]

Donte Moncrief on Ravens' free agency radar

 

[efactor]

Donte Moncrief on Ravens' free agency radar

Kind of hope SF makes a play for him if they don't go in on Robinson or Watkins.  He would give Jimmy G a good red zone target and make a nice compliment to Garcon, Goodwin and Taylor.

 

[squistion]

Adam Schefter‏Verified account @AdamSchefter 6m

Former Colts' WR Donte Moncrief intends to sign with the Jacksonville Jaguars, per source. Staying in AFC South.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld take:

Jaguars agreed to terms with WR Donte Moncrief, formerly of the Colts.

Even with Allen Robinson gone, Moncrief is joining a crowded receiver corps that now includes Marqise Lee, Keelan Cole, Allen Hurns and Dede Westrbook in addition to Moncrief. Perhaps Hurns is still a candidate for release. Of course, coming off back-to-back lost seasons, Moncrief is essentially a flier. Working in Moncrief's favor is his youth (25 in August) and still quite projectable skill-set. From a fantasy perspective, it's hard to see how Moncrief makes an impact in a run-first offense with Blake Bortles at quarterback.

Related: Colts

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Mar 13 - 4:55 PM

 

[mozzy84]

so tired of wasting a roster spot on this guy, going to have to think hard about cutting with this signing.

 

[FF Ninja]

womp womp

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Too many mouths there not enough passes

 

[Bfrahm3]

Yeah as much as I liked him this was not a good spot to go. Only have him on 1 team now in a dynasty where we keep 15 players out of 21. Have a pretty good team and am leaning on not keeping him this offseason

 

[Boston]

I am not a Moncrief fan but I like this move as far as real football goes (and also assuming it is not good $)...Lee, Cole, Westbrook and Moncrief are a pretty solid unit of WRs for how the Jags are built...

 

[menobrown]

It's not a gold mine landing spot but I don't think it's as bad as some of you make it sound. Easy hold to me. WR's have been able to produce when healthy in Jacksonville and I sure don't agree that there are to many mouths.  No pun intended but it's literally a bunch of JAGS.  

 

[FF Ninja]

It's not a gold mine landing spot but I don't think it's as bad as some of you make it sound. Easy hold to me. WR's have been able to produce when healthy in Jacksonville and I sure don't agree that there are to many mouths.  No pun intended but it's literally a bunch of JAGS.  

I can feel my desire for confirmation bias wanting to agree with you, but this statement really isn't fair. 

Westbrook is by all accounts a talented guy who slipped for character concerns. Cole flashed some ability last year. Lee is a former 2nd round pick that has also flashed ability when healthy. Hurns is probably gone, but he's probably shown the most NFL talent out of all of them, but has also had some health problems and seems to have fallen out of favor. 

Moncrief has an uphill battle. He signed a 1-year $7M deal, so not chump change. Actually a bit more than Pryor got last year. So maybe they do intend to let him be the WR2? Lee is getting $9.5M x 4 years, so they must see him as the WR1. 

 

[menobrown]

I can feel my desire for confirmation bias wanting to agree with you, but this statement really isn't fair. 

Westbrook is by all accounts a talented guy who slipped for character concerns. Cole flashed some ability last year. Lee is a former 2nd round pick that has also flashed ability when healthy. Hurns is probably gone, but he's probably shown the most NFL talent out of all of them, but has also had some health problems and seems to have fallen out of favor. 

Moncrief has an uphill battle. He signed a 1-year $7M deal, so not chump change. Actually a bit more than Pryor got last year. So maybe they do intend to let him be the WR2? Lee is getting $9.5M x 4 years, so they must see him as the WR1. 

Westbrook, if things go well, I view a similar as DJAX. He's the kind of WR I actually like having on a team when I own another WR. He's not a huge target guy, helps open up the defense.  He does seem on the frail side to me, that was a concern I had on him in college and I think that was a part of why he slipped.

Cole flashed a little when he was pressed into action and I might be wrong but just view him as an NFL teams #3-4 WR, solid guy in the rotation but he is to be fair a bit of a mystery guy to me. Going off memory I just thought in the playoffs when they got some players back from injury they went away from him.  I own him on some FFPC teams and even if they had not added Moncrief I intended to cut him in 2 weeks if I could not deal him.

Lee is a solid WR2 and as you said Hurns is iffy to return.

I see some quality players but in the absence of Moncrief one of the least talented WR's and taking it a step further WR/TE groups in the NFL.  No true #1, ok depth. I don't see stiff comp myself.

Another key thing to keep in mind. Other than Cole, who I don't know as much about with regards to his history, but this group has been on the injury list a lot the past few years, Moncrief included. Attrition likely trims this group down a lot of weeks.

One last thing on Moncriefs contract was he has incentives that can get him over $9m. Not sure what those are but that's put his pay right around area between what Pryor and Alshon got last year. Pryor sucked but he was given a chance. It's good pay, I was actually surprised to see it was so high.

 

[Faust]

Moncrief could struggle to separate himself in crowded receiver corps

 

[kface]

I've had this guy on my team every year and so happy i can finally let the dream die.  With Bortles and the mouths to feed around there he's going to be nothing.

 

[Faust]

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Donte Moncrief's one-year, $9.6 million contract with the Jaguars is fully guaranteed.

It is an impressive chunk of change for a player who has managed just 56 catches for 698 yards over 21 games the last two years. He will not be 25 until August, however, and has an impressive skill set. Jacksonville is clearly betting on Moncrief reaching his potential this season. Reading into contract information can be a bad idea, but this deal suggests the Jaguars plan for Moncrief to start.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Mar 19 - 11:36 AM

 

[FF Ninja]

So....

• JAX has a dominant defense
  
• They just bolstered their OL
  
• They just gave Marquis Lee too much money to ignore him in the passing game
  

What's the upside here? 20% target share from Blake Bortles?

105 targets x 58% = 61 rec x 13 ypr = 793 yards 6 TDs?

 

[jeaton6]

So....

• JAX has a dominant defense
  
• They just bolstered their OL
  
• They just gave Marquis Lee too much money to ignore him in the passing game
  

What's the upside here? 20% target share from Blake Bortles?

105 targets x 58% = 61 rec x 13 ypr = 793 yards 6 TDs?

If he’s number 1 then upside is probably 28% target share, 85 x 13 = 1105 8 TDS. But I think This is an extremely unlikely scenario. Unlikely to remain healthy, a lot of mouths to feed all of a sudden, unlikely to be number 1.

 

[voiceofunreason]

It's not a gold mine landing spot but I don't think it's as bad as some of you make it sound. Easy hold to me. WR's have been able to produce when healthy in Jacksonville and I sure don't agree that there are to many mouths.  No pun intended but it's literally a bunch of JAGS.  

The biggest concern for me is the colts gave up on him while sitting on a ton of cap room and no wr depth at all. Tells you they think he’s awful or uncoachable.

 

[Otis]

Cole is going to be a star in JAC. Moncrief will be an oft injured WR3/4 who shows a flash here and there but continues to be maddening to fantasy owners. 

-The Hawk’s Nest 

 

[FF Ninja]

If he’s number 1 then upside is probably 28% target share, 85 x 13 = 1105 8 TDS. But I think This is an extremely unlikely scenario. Unlikely to remain healthy, a lot of mouths to feed all of a sudden, unlikely to be number 1.

I feel like they're paying Lee to be their WR1. I don't think Cole is going to be a problem... right or wrong, they aren't paying Moncrief $9.6M to sit behind an undrafted 2nd year player. But between Lee and Cole, I think 20% is the realistic target share upside for Moncrief unless he can somehow overtake Lee as the WR1 in camp.

It's kind of crazy, but Moncrief is actually younger than Cole. 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/donte-moncrief/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/keelan-cole/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/marqise-lee/

 

[menobrown]

I feel like they're paying Lee to be their WR1. I don't think Cole is going to be a problem... right or wrong, they aren't paying Moncrief $9.6M to sit behind an undrafted 2nd year player.

Could it not be just as easily argued that Moncrief is the one they are paying to be their #1?

 

[FF Ninja]

Could it not be just as easily argued that Moncrief is the one they are paying to be their #1?

The 4 year deal indicates Lee is the future. Moncrief seems like a roll of the dice. An expensive roll, though. I'm not saying it's impossible he becomes the WR1... just trying to be realistic here. 

 

[menobrown]

The 4 year deal indicates Lee is the future. Moncrief seems like a roll of the dice. An expensive roll, though. I'm not saying it's impossible he becomes the WR1... just trying to be realistic here. 

That's a stretch. Moncrief is getting paid more per year then Lee and as I have looked over that contract  I'd take Moncrief's contract over Lee's all day. You have no idea if Moncrief was even interested in a long term deal vs a one year bet on himself type deal. Sorry but you just can't have them paying Moncrief more money this year and say they are paying Lee to be the #1, the math don't work on that theory.

 

[FF Ninja]

That's a stretch. Moncrief is getting paid more per year then Lee and as I have looked over that contract  I'd take Moncrief's contract over Lee's all day. You have no idea if Moncrief was even interested in a long term deal vs a one year bet on himself type deal. Sorry but you just can't have them paying Moncrief more money this year and say they are paying Lee to be the #1, the math don't work on that theory.

Keep hope alive, brother. You seem to have a confidence in Moncrief that I just can't fathom at this point. Consider me in the "cautiously optimistic while expecting nothing" camp. 

 

[Stealthycat]

I'm a big Dede Westbrook fan .... I think he'll be the #1 PPG WR in JAX

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm a big Dede Westbrook fan .... I think he'll be the #1 PPG WR in JAX

Stranger things have happened, but what makes you so confident? Other than being a huge fan?

 

[menobrown]

Keep hope alive, brother. You seem to have a confidence in Moncrief that I just can't fathom at this point. Consider me in the "cautiously optimistic while expecting nothing" camp. 

I am not what termed supremely confident or anything but have always thought Moncrief had talent and it's encouraging that a team obviously puts a lot of belief in him. I'd never have imagined he'd get this kind of a contract. $9.6 M guaranteed with $2M more in possible incentives would have been something I'd have strongly bet against. I'd read he wanted a one year deal weeks ago but I'd have thought he was looking at something in the John Brown/Pryor kind of one year deal.  If I was the Jags I'd have just paid found the extra $5M or so and franchised Robinson.

But I don't dislike the landing spot as others do. Sure the money helps but I continue to see the Jags WR group as nothing special, I already covered this in another thread but I'm not so into the "to many mouths to feed" narrative getting tossed around. And then you got the Jags offense which is not great but they threw to WR's 19th most in the NFL last year, it's not like they are in that 30-32 kind of range. I don't see people running from Thielen or Diggs and the Vikings attempted about one pass a game to their WR's more than the Jags.  I think there is enough targets for Moncrief, plus 3 of the top 4 WR's, Moncrief included, are often hurt so this probably all works out and on that note that to me is his biggest obstacle, staying healthy for once.

 

[travdogg]

Cole is going to be a star in JAC. Moncrief will be an oft injured WR3/4 who shows a flash here and there but continues to be maddening to fantasy owners. 

-The Hawk’s Nest 

I agree that Cole is probably the best WR on the team, especially with Hurns gone now too. Moncrief was never able to put it together with a healthy Andrew Luck, what chance does he have with Bortles? 

 

[FF Ninja]

I am not what termed supremely confident or anything but have always thought Moncrief had talent and it's encouraging that a team obviously puts a lot of belief in him. I'd never have imagined he'd get this kind of a contract. $9.6 M guaranteed with $2M more in possible incentives would have been something I'd have strongly bet against. I'd read he wanted a one year deal weeks ago but I'd have thought he was looking at something in the John Brown/Pryor kind of one year deal.  If I was the Jags I'd have just paid found the extra $5M or so and franchised Robinson.

But I don't dislike the landing spot as others do. Sure the money helps but I continue to see the Jags WR group as nothing special, I already covered this in another thread but I'm not so into the "to many mouths to feed" narrative getting tossed around. And then you got the Jags offense which is not great but they threw to WR's 19th most in the NFL last year, it's not like they are in that 30-32 kind of range. I don't see people running from Thielen or Diggs and the Vikings attempted about one pass a game to their WR's more than the Jags.  I think there is enough targets for Moncrief, plus 3 of the top 4 WR's, Moncrief included, are often hurt so this probably all works out and on that note that to me is his biggest obstacle, staying healthy for once.

I'm with you in the thought that Moncrief has talent, but I don't think he's better than AR15 and even he struggled a lot in 2016 as Bortles' high volume WR1. Moncrief has a lot more to prove and I'm not as quick to write off the other WRs as you. I did read your breakdown of the other guys and none of it is invalid, but they are all young and could improve. Also, while the Jags may have thrown a decent amount (19th as you say) to their WRs, keep in mind Marcedes Lewis was their TE1 with 48 targets. I imagine ASJ will be getting a lot larger slice of the pie.

And yeah, the contract is strong for a one year deal, but teams screw up all the time (what was Pryor's deal last year?). All it takes is one dummy to vastly overpay a player. We have no idea what anyone else was offering. 

 

[menobrown]

I'm with you in the thought that Moncrief has talent, but I don't think he's better than AR15 and even he struggled a lot in 2016 as Bortles' high volume WR1. Moncrief has a lot more to prove and I'm not as quick to write off the other WRs as you. I did read your breakdown of the other guys and none of it is invalid, but they are all young and could improve. Also, while the Jags may have thrown a decent amount (19th as you say) to their WRs, keep in mind Marcedes Lewis was their TE1 with 48 targets. I imagine ASJ will be getting a lot larger slice of the pie.

And yeah, the contract is strong for a one year deal, but teams screw up all the time (what was Pryor's deal last year?). All it takes is one dummy to vastly overpay a player. We have no idea what anyone else was offering. 

I'm pretty down on ASJ, would slot him in the 60-70 target range. Not big on his game at all.

Pryor got $7m I believe and I thought Alshon got $9M. And let's not let Philly winning a SB and Alshon getting extended hide the fact he was not very good last year. So if you are saying that teams giving a player a big one year contract, or even a mult-year deal, is not necessarily an indicator of success I would be right with you on that. Still, it's at least a sign of the teams belief in the player and usually implies a role designed for them. Like if Moncrief got paid $5m I'd think he's more or less in competition with the other WR's, a comp I'd like him to do well in but a competition and might be more inclined to see it as more of a rotation at WR. At his pay I don't see it as a competition so much as his role to lose, but none of that means he's going to pay off, I just like that he's put in a position where it's up to him.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm pretty down on ASJ, would slot him in the 60-70 target range. Not big on his game at all.

Pryor got $7m I believe and I thought Alshon got $9M. And let's not let Philly winning a SB and Alshon getting extended hide the fact he was not very good last year. So if you are saying that teams giving a player a big one year contract, or even a mult-year deal, is not necessarily an indicator of success I would be right with you on that. Still, it's at least a sign of the teams belief in the player and usually implies a role designed for them. Like if Moncrief got paid $5m I'd think he's more or less in competition with the other WR's, a comp I'd like him to do well in but a competition and might be more inclined to see it as more of a rotation at WR. At his pay I don't see it as a competition so much as his role to lose, but none of that means he's going to pay off, I just like that he's put in a position where it's up to him.

I hope you're right. As for ASJ, I can't say I have a strong opinion on him... other than I believe he's going to get more targets than Lewis did last year. He just turned 25, so to me he's just like the JAX WRs... young and could improve.

 

[Stealthycat]

Stranger things have happened, but what makes you so confident? Other than being a huge fan?

Lee is a 50% catch WR in his 5th season

Moncrief has failed to do anything WR1-ish with all the opportunity he's been given

Dede Westbrook - year 2 and only going to be in his 7th game in the NFL .... and remember the pre-season ? He tore it up and the 4.3 speed ........... I just think he's electric where the other WR"s are not so much

 

[FF Ninja]

Lee is a 50% catch WR in his 5th season

Moncrief has failed to do anything WR1-ish with all the opportunity he's been given

Dede Westbrook - year 2 and only going to be in his 7th game in the NFL .... and remember the pre-season ? He tore it up and the 4.3 speed ........... I just think he's electric where the other WR"s are not so much

C'mon man. This is not very compelling at all.

First, who has been catching passes from Bortles who doesn't have a 50% catch rate??

Second, "all the opportunity he's been given"? Wat? The problem with Moncrief is that he's flashed, but has always had a problem with his opportunity. He came into the league very young. Very, very young. Anyone expecting anything from year 1 was crazy. In year 2, Andre Johnson was brought it and bumped Moncrief down to WR3. By the time Moncrief took over for AJ, Luck was injured. Lost year. In year 3, Moncrief got injured in week 2. He scored 6 TDs in the 7 games after injury. In year 4, Luck missed the season. So he's only really had half a season of "opportunity" with Luck at QB. Not enough to judge him favorably or unfavorably by.

 Dede is the same age as Moncrief, he's smaller than Moncrief, he's lighter than Moncrief, and he's slower than Moncrief. And nobody cares about preseason. He's got potential, but you need to build a better case for this #1 PPG in JAX statement. However, I don't think there is one to be made.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/donte-moncrief/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/dede-westbrook/

 

[Stealthycat]

C'mon man. This is not very compelling at all.

maybe Moncrief is the WR1 and a beast  -  I am acquiring Dede Westbrook where I can

Hurns released ..... they like the WR's they have, which will be the #1 is the question

 

[Bojang0301]

Bortles is a grossly flawed and inefficient QB. I am an unfortunate fellow that ended up with ASJ and Moncrief on some rosters. Mostly it’s vomit inducing. I hope they take Lamar Jackson, hell, I’d even settle for Mason Rudolph.

 

[Snorkelson]

Let’s say bortles takes a small step forward, as he has each year. Maybe stays near 60% passing, 3600-4000 yds, 25 tds 12. Seems like there would be some fantasy relevant WRs- but last years production was spread out. Cole led the team with ~750 yds, and I thought he maybe did that in the 2nd half of the season, but he was playing all year. Even when he played more he’s like 3 rec a game. So I don’t think any of these guys will be “beasts” but more of a bye week filler or depth. I don’t want to be relying on any of these guys and the hit or miss td reliant production. Bortles isn’t throwing 35-40 times a game anymore. 

 

[-OZ-]

Bortles is a grossly flawed and inefficient QB. I am an unfortunate fellow that ended up with ASJ and Moncrief on some rosters. Mostly it’s vomit inducing. I hope they take Lamar Jackson, hell, I’d even settle for Mason Rudolph.

Anything is possible but I'd bet against the Jaguars drafting a QB highly. 

Gotta think they're looking o line or replacing Poz with their first pick, who knows after that?  Their roster is good enough to just take BPA and not reach. 

 

[-OZ-]

Let’s say bortles takes a small step forward, as he has each year. Maybe stays near 60% passing, 3600-4000 yds, 25 tds 12. Seems like there would be some fantasy relevant WRs- but last years production was spread out. Cole led the team with ~750 yds, and I thought he maybe did that in the 2nd half of the season, but he was playing all year. Even when he played more he’s like 3 rec a game. So I don’t think any of these guys will be “beasts” but more of a bye week filler or depth. I don’t want to be relying on any of these guys and the hit or miss td reliant production. Bortles isn’t throwing 35-40 times a game anymore. 

Yeah, he played all year but still put up ~700 yards in the last 10 games after just getting on the field the first two months.  But he was an UDFA from a small school, so a slow start is understandable.

 

[Bojang0301]

Anything is possible but I'd bet against the Jaguars drafting a QB highly. 

Gotta think they're looking o line or replacing Poz with their first pick, who knows after that?  Their roster is good enough to just take BPA and not reach. 

Poz was already replaced last year and they just signed a G to the highest OL contract in the NFL. In fact I would say their one and only need is QB.

 

[doeseatplace]

Poz was already replaced last year and they just signed a G to the highest OL contract in the NFL. In fact I would say their one and only need is QB.

They are extremely thin at linebacker, which is probably the greatest need.  But I agree...if the QB they like is at #29 they will take him

 

[-OZ-]

Poz was already replaced last year and they just signed a G to the highest OL contract in the NFL. In fact I would say their one and only need is QB.

Who's their 3rd?  Or is the 3rd not a priority? 

Newell addresses G, sure. 

I personally don't like Rudolph at 29 but as a Titans fan I'm good with that pick.

 

[Bojang0301]

Who's their 3rd?  Or is the 3rd not a priority? 

Newell addresses G, sure. 

I personally don't like Rudolph at 29 but as a Titans fan I'm good with that pick.

Blair Brown was a high percentile SPARQ athlete. I’m expecting he gets a shot.

 

[dickey moe]

His career puts me to sleep.

 

[Faust]

The Jaguars' official website believes Donte Moncrief is penciled in as a starter.

Moncrief's fully guaranteed $9.6 million salary for 2018 suggested as much, but the Jags' receiver corps is crowded. Marqise Lee will start, while Keelan Cole was impressive as a rookie and D.J. Chark is a second-round investment. Second-year pro Dede Westbrook also flashed promise as a rookie. Moncrief was something of an underachiever with the Colts. He could leave the door open for competition in camp.

Source: jaguars.com 

May 21 - 3:07 PM