Don't sleep on Donte Moncrief: Draft Day steal (1 Viewer)

[ChuckLiddell]

I agree.  However the repeated chances and failures are not inspiring.  He's in the last year of his rookie deal so it's likely his last chance.

What guys can we think of that had this many chances in a great situation and finally turned it around and lived up to the hype in year 4?  Not guys that got their opportunity then, rather guys that had already had it, failed multiple times, and somehow still got another chance and ended up working out.

Davante Adams is comparable, although I think it was his 3rd year, not fourth.  A lot of people completely gave up on him and lived to regret it. 

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Also, I don't know how many games they have played together over his first 3 years, but between Luck's missed games, and Moncrief's missed games, I think it kind of makes this situation unique.  Be nice to see them play a full season together and healthy before giving up on him, like many in here seem to be ready to do.

 

[FF Ninja]

How many times are we going to buy how impressive he looks in training camp?

For me it'll be the first time. I was not interested in year 1 or year 2. I tried last year in a lot of leagues, but always got outbid. I'm feeling confident I'll get him this year in a few leagues. Everyone seems down on him.

I agree.  However the repeated chances and failures are not inspiring.  He's in the last year of his rookie deal so it's likely his last chance.

What guys can we think of that had this many chances in a great situation and finally turned it around and lived up to the hype in year 4?  Not guys that got their opportunity then, rather guys that had already had it, failed multiple times, and somehow still got another chance and ended up working out.

Dropkick summarized it pretty well for you on the previous page. He was a very young rookie so I don't think anyone should've expected much out of him. In his 2nd year Andre Johnson was brought in to be the WR2 (which is why I stayed away from Moncrief) and Luck got injured (which was more of a factor than AJ if we're being honest). In his 3rd year he had a couple injuries. Despite these years appearing terrible, he actually graded out very positively on a per play basis.

If you've never owned a guy who has never performed, it's pretty easy to pat yourself on the back while writing the player off, so it would be easy for me to do that. But I feel like Moncrief is a guy who has just had some bad luck which is now my good luck because I can get in on this bandwagon cheaply. Let's keep in mind that he's actually younger than guys like Parker, Doctson, White, Crowder, and Enunwa. 

 

[kface]

For me it'll be the first time. I was not interested in year 1 or year 2. I tried last year in a lot of leagues, but always got outbid. I'm feeling confident I'll get him this year in a few leagues. Everyone seems down on him.

Dropkick summarized it pretty well for you on the previous page. He was a very young rookie so I don't think anyone should've expected much out of him. In his 2nd year Andre Johnson was brought in to be the WR2 (which is why I stayed away from Moncrief) and Luck got injured (which was more of a factor than AJ if we're being honest). In his 3rd year he had a couple injuries. Despite these years appearing terrible, he actually graded out very positively on a per play basis.

If you've never owned a guy who has never performed, it's pretty easy to pat yourself on the back while writing the player off, so it would be easy for me to do that. But I feel like Moncrief is a guy who has just had some bad luck which is now my good luck because I can get in on this bandwagon cheaply. Let's keep in mind that he's actually younger than guys like Parker, Doctson, White, Crowder, and Enunwa. 

Certainly to each his own, especially in fantasy, but young or not I just feel like he has been given so many chances and he hasn't even really flashed.  I'm not sure if maybe Luck just doesn't like him or what the problem is but he just hasn't shown anything to me.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

For me it'll be the first time. I was not interested in year 1 or year 2. I tried last year in a lot of leagues, but always got outbid. I'm feeling confident I'll get him this year in a few leagues. Everyone seems down on him.

Dropkick summarized it pretty well for you on the previous page. He was a very young rookie so I don't think anyone should've expected much out of him. In his 2nd year Andre Johnson was brought in to be the WR2 (which is why I stayed away from Moncrief) and Luck got injured (which was more of a factor than AJ if we're being honest). In his 3rd year he had a couple injuries. Despite these years appearing terrible, he actually graded out very positively on a per play basis.

If you've never owned a guy who has never performed, it's pretty easy to pat yourself on the back while writing the player off, so it would be easy for me to do that. But I feel like Moncrief is a guy who has just had some bad luck which is now my good luck because I can get in on this bandwagon cheaply. Let's keep in mind that he's actually younger than guys like Parker, Doctson, White, Crowder, and Enunwa. 

I think we're in similar spots.  I've never owned him before but I bought a share this year in a big money startup draft with my 5th round startup pick.  I mostly did it as a "what the heck" upside pick, though I am a bit less optimistic about him than you.

For all his appealing size/speed he was still only a 3rd round NFL pick, which says something about what NFL teams thought of his actual receiving skills given he fell that far despite prototype measurables.  That seems to have gotten lost in all this, as I haven't really seen a lot about his improvement in those areas.

Anyway like you, I've got my fingers crossed.  With all the positive hype around Parker this offseason I hope it's not a pick I come to regret.

 

[Lash]

I agree.  However the repeated chances and failures are not inspiring.  He's in the last year of his rookie deal so it's likely his last chance.

What guys can we think of that had this many chances in a great situation and finally turned it around and lived up to the hype in year 4?  Not guys that got their opportunity then, rather guys that had already had it, failed multiple times, and somehow still got another chance and ended up working out.

Jordy Nelson

Steve Smith (technically his 5th year but he was injured his entire 4th year) 

Antonio Brown

Wes Welker

Marvin Harrison

Antonio Bryant

Dwayne Bowe

that's just off the top of my head in 5 minutes, prolly could come up with dozens with research

all of these like Moncrief, had a good offense, good QB, good situation, and yawned their way to end of year 3 then completely exploded

and, except for Brown, were all highly thought of prospects

 

[Lash]

oh, and as for Moncrief, now is when I jump in

have never owned him but i love investing in post-hype for pennies on the dollar

 

[Ilov80s]

oh, and as for Moncrief, now is when I jump in

have never owned him but i love investing in post-hype for pennies on the dollar

It is definitely a good time to buy in all formats as you can see there are many frustrated Moncrief owners that want nothing to do with him. 

 

[Lash]

It is definitely a good time to buy in all formats as you can see there are many frustrated Moncrief owners that want nothing to do with him. 

yeah got him 14-teamer 6th round in a dynasty startup as my WR5 (start multiple flexes)

wasn't even targeting him but he was just screaming at me to give him a chance heh

 

[Slapdash]

oh, and as for Moncrief, now is when I jump in

have never owned him but i love investing in post-hype for pennies on the dollar

Sold him last year when he was being overvalued, but he still has a lot of upside.  I think we see him in the low-end WR2 range if healthy. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Jordy Nelson

Steve Smith (technically his 5th year but he was injured his entire 4th year) 

Antonio Brown

Wes Welker

Marvin Harrison

Antonio Bryant

Dwayne Bowe

that's just off the top of my head in 5 minutes, prolly could come up with dozens with research

all of these like Moncrief, had a good offense, good QB, good situation, and yawned their way to end of year 3 then completely exploded

and, except for Brown, were all highly thought of prospects

Not looking to argue against Moncrief here but these are mostly pretty poor examples for Moncrief.  Most of these guys had one or multiple thousand yard, WR1/WR2 fantasy seasons under their belt at this point.

Of those missing it, Welker/Jordy hadn't had an opportunity yet (I was very clear in mentioning I was looking for guys that had opportunities and failed, not guys who hadn't yet received their opportunity).  Both were studs as soon as they got a chance to start regularly.

That leaves us with Harrison, who did indeed not break out until his 4th year even though it looks like he was a starter right out of the gate.  I don't really remember back that far that well, though his early career was pre-Peyton (whereas Luck has been there for Moncrief's whole career), and each of his first 3 years, while not great, were still far better than Moncrief's career best so far.  He is probably the best hope though (right down to the year 3 injury), even without the matching jerseys.

 

[FF Ninja]

I think we're in similar spots.  I've never owned him before but I bought a share this year in a big money startup draft with my 5th round startup pick.  I mostly did it as a "what the heck" upside pick, though I am a bit less optimistic about him than you.

For all his appealing size/speed he was still only a 3rd round NFL pick, which says something about what NFL teams thought of his actual receiving skills given he fell that far despite prototype measurables.  That seems to have gotten lost in all this, as I haven't really seen a lot about his improvement in those areas.

Anyway like you, I've got my fingers crossed.  With all the positive hype around Parker this offseason I hope it's not a pick I come to regret.

Man, if you've got buyer's remorse because you took him over Parker, don't. I will be really surprised if Parker ever lives up to the hype.

But you're right, he was a late 3rd round pick, however, the NFL draft is not known for it's accuracy.

I get where you're going with examples of guys that botched opportunity early and eventually produced - there obviously aren't many, but his lack of success is pretty understandable given those situations. Rookie/backup, QB injury, then self injury. Give the guy a healthy year with his QB before we judge him.

I'm not going to go crazy bidding on him this year, but I will pay a few bucks extra, on top of his AAV.

 

[Crippler]

Just got home in 13th round of 12 team IDP draft as WR37. Like that value in the end. 

 

[JoeSteeler]

Any recent dynasty trades?

 

[menobrown]

Any recent dynasty trades?

Yes, this were both FFPC leagues.

About a week ago I gave Brandon Marshall and Snead for Moncrief.

Just this morning a trade went down for him in another league of mine where he was dealt for JuJu and two 2018#2's which this year I think belonged to teams with the  5th and 10th pick.

 

[menobrown]

all of these like Moncrief, had a good offense, good QB, good situation, and yawned their way to end of year 3 then completely exploded

I don't even see it as that, I see it as just bad luck/timing with respect to injuries.

Year one he was to raw to contribute.

Year two he's breaking out exactly like his owners hoped he would and then Luck gets banged up and eventually sidelined for the season and he pretty much fell apart. As you can see that year when Luck started breaking down and eventually was out it also had a sizeable impact on Hilton's ROS production.

Year three he has a nice opening week and suffers sizeable shoulder injury early in week two. He came back to play but IMO was never 100% physically right last year and then eventually would suffer a hamstring injury to add to his physical woes.

I would term his 3 years as star crossed,  has had very few games since his season opener of season two, when he really was ready to start contributing, where I felt he and Luck were not severely hampered our out due to injury.

That no doubt comes off like a lot of excuses, and it is,  but I feel like it's all about some solid health from him and Luck and I think he's a WR2.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Jordy Nelson

Steve Smith (technically his 5th year but he was injured his entire 4th year) 

Antonio Brown

Wes Welker

Marvin Harrison

Antonio Bryant

Dwayne Bowe

that's just off the top of my head in 5 minutes, prolly could come up with dozens with research

all of these like Moncrief, had a good offense, good QB, good situation, and yawned their way to end of year 3 then completely exploded

and, except for Brown, were all highly thought of prospects

wes welker wasn't even drafted....so not so highly thought of

 

[barackdhouse]

Definitely hoping he and Luck stay healthy this year and then we'll have a verdict on him. I am in hold mode. There is no way I can get good value for him now, and I still have hope. He is just 23 years old. If he is healthy and underachieves he will still be a redzone threat and still get enough targets to be startable. In other words I think he will settle in as having a safe dependable floor. Even if he doesn't knock anyone's socks off. But the upside makes the hold worth it. Aside from injury, I just can't see him being so bad that he isn't still a low WR2 or high WR3, with weekly WR1 upside. I have to repeat something, though. He is only 23.

 

[Adso]

For all his appealing size/speed he was still only a 3rd round NFL pick, which says something about what NFL teams thought of his actual receiving skills given he fell that far despite prototype measurables.  That seems to have gotten lost in all this, as I haven't really seen a lot about his improvement in those areas.

...3rd round of the most historic draft year for WR's in NFL history.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

...3rd round of the most historic draft year for WR's in NFL history.

Plenty of complete and total scrub WRs in that draft that went ahead of him too.

 

[Adso]

 That seems to have gotten lost in all this, as I haven't really seen a lot about his improvement in those areas.

Agree with you about how raw he was going into the draft. Not sure if you buy Harmon's process but he definitely saw improvement from year 1 to year 2: http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-improved-technician-donte-moncrief-is-set-to-explode-in-2016.html

We know how 2016 turned out, but it seems like the argument can be made that he has improved quite a bit.

 

[Lash]

wes welker wasn't even drafted....so not so highly thought of

yeah brought a 2nd and 7th rd draft pick trade value ... that is not so highly thought of that is EXTREMELY HIGHLY thought of as a prospect (remember he hadn't done anything yet on the field that would deem him worthy of that kinda trade value

 

[JohnnyU]

Any recent dynasty trades?

Was offered Devante Adams and Kenny Goilladay for Moncrief and Snead.  I turned it down.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

That leaves us with Harrison, who did indeed not break out until his 4th year even though it looks like he was a starter right out of the gate.  I don't really remember back that far that well, though his early career was pre-Peyton (whereas Luck has been there for Moncrief's whole career), and each of his first 3 years, while not great, were still far better than Moncrief's career best so far.  He is probably the best hope though (right down to the year 3 injury), even without the matching jerseys.

Yeah, 64-836-8 as a rookie followed by 73-866-6 for Harrison isn't all that shabby. And as you said, that was with an aging Jim Harbaugh at QB not Manning.

 

[DropKick]

...3rd round of the most historic draft year for WR's in NFL history.

Wow..  fell "all the way" to the 3trd round...  and he's "TD dependent" too...  Well, not counting the two games he left earl with injury, he has scored a TD in ten straight games (and 12 of 14).  Not sure why people aren't seeing the bright side.

Again, I don't know if Moncrief will work out but given his age, QB situation, measurables and the injuries (his & Luck's) over the past two seasons - I'm surprised people have dismissed him so quickly.

 

[jtd13]

I sold last offseason in the only league I had him (for Miller- which I guess is a wash at this point). I haven't been following this thread since, but I am really surprised by the negative tone these days. You would think people would wait until he at least turned 24 or had a healthy season with Luck to give up on a WR that was considered super raw coming in.

On the other hand, Luck still not throwing (at least as of last update on June 15) is some cause for concern. Maybe he never actually gets a full-season with both him and Luck healthy (after his rookie year).

 

[the spanker]

I gave fair warning to everyone claiming Moncrief was the #1 WR to own on the Colts offense in my Sept 9 2016 post.

Hilton ended the season as a top 5 WR in ppr leagues.   

 

[Faust]

Moncrief suffered a sprained AC joint in his shoulder on Thursday.

Coach Chuck Pagano is labeling Moncrief as day to day. It depends how severe the sprain is, but the Colts are saying it's "mild" for Moncrief. He missed a ton of action last season with a shoulder issue, though that was a broken shoulder blade. Moncrief was reportedly off to a fast start early in training camp.

Source: George Bremer on Twitter

 

[Ted Stickles]

I bought into the major hype last year and was expecting much more production out of him.  He is very TD dependent, and he does seemingly get you that TD every game, but there seems to be a ceiling at the 60 yard mark, which was pretty frustrating last year.  And now he is banged up again with the other shoulder.  I am bearish on him this year unless he falls dramatically.

 

[buck naked]

I gave fair warning to everyone claiming Moncrief was the #1 WR to own on the Colts offense in my Sept 9 2016 post.

Hilton ended the season as a top 5 WR in ppr leagues.   

Wow, I better read all your posts from now on!!

 

[FF Ninja]

Wow, I better read all your posts from now on!!

He can predict injuries!

 

[Casting Couch]

I think Moncrief is an absolute SELL right now. This shoulder issue may be chronic. I'm an owner and I'm not pleased.

 

[Pwingles]

I think Moncrief is an absolute SELL right now. This shoulder issue may be chronic. I'm an owner and I'm not pleased.

AC joint chronic? I dont think that is an injury that you can consider chronic. Did he have another injury to that shoulder prior? Either way, lol he got hurt quickly. I figured he would start a game or two, have a crazy high TD rate and then explode

 

[Casting Couch]

AC joint chronic? I dont think that is an injury that you can consider chronic. Did he have another injury to that shoulder prior? Either way, lol he got hurt quickly. I figured he would start a game or two, have a crazy high TD rate and then explode

He hurt it last year, and he hurt it again this week.

 

[Pwingles]

He hurt it last year, and he hurt it again this week.

Is this like in the Dion Lewis thread where he had a torn ACL one year and a broken leg a different year and he was all of the sudden "injury prone"?

a broken shoulder blade and spraining the ligament that holds your shoulder to the collar bone are two very different injuries

*Edit

after a 3 min google search, I have also found that the reports are, its not even the same shoulder

 

[flapgreen]

Sleep on him now 

 

[Pwingles]

Sleep on him now 

sending out offers for him and fuller as we speak

 

[SameSongNDance]

His and Luck's injury history aside, he kind of just produces like a tight end in this offense, even when they're both healthy.

Nothing about this offense is fundamentally different this year, correct?

 

[hoffman0001]

Hmmm....let's do the math...

Gumpy QB + Crowded WR Group + Clear #1 WR that is not him + Injury history + 3 years to to "break out, and never really did... + Most owners that have him have invested too much to let him go for a fair price= no real opportunity. 

Just my opinion. In re-draft could he be be a value? sure at the right price, but I have a feeling in most leagues someone will be "clever" and draft him a round or two early. 

 

[Arodin]

A/C is scary for a WR.  Cobb had one, played through it, and his numbers dropped off precipitously.

Why shouldn't I expect the same for Moncreif?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

pass

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

He can predict injuries!

ya know ninja....I respect the effort you put in on this board...but man it sure seems like you back a lot of dogs.....

 

[Pwingles]

A/C is scary for a WR.  Cobb had one, played through it, and his numbers dropped off precipitously.

Why shouldn't I expect the same for Moncreif?

If they let it heal, it shouldnt be an issue moving forward. Its a tough one to play through because of limited range of motion and its really painful.

 

[Biabreakable]

Not looking to argue against Moncrief here but these are mostly pretty poor examples for Moncrief.  Most of these guys had one or multiple thousand yard, WR1/WR2 fantasy seasons under their belt at this point.

Of those missing it, Welker/Jordy hadn't had an opportunity yet (I was very clear in mentioning I was looking for guys that had opportunities and failed, not guys who hadn't yet received their opportunity).  Both were studs as soon as they got a chance to start regularly.

That leaves us with Harrison, who did indeed not break out until his 4th year even though it looks like he was a starter right out of the gate.  I don't really remember back that far that well, though his early career was pre-Peyton (whereas Luck has been there for Moncrief's whole career), and each of his first 3 years, while not great, were still far better than Moncrief's career best so far.  He is probably the best hope though (right down to the year 3 injury), even without the matching jerseys.

With Marvin your going back to pre 2000 passing offense that NFL wide was much lower volume.

There used to be more evidence to support the 3rd year break out for WR being the norm than in the current era.

 

[Pwingles]

A/C is scary for a WR.  Cobb had one, played through it, and his numbers dropped off precipitously.

Why shouldn't I expect the same for Moncreif?

If they let it heal, it shouldnt be an issue moving forward. Its a tough one to play through because of limited range of motion and its really painful.

 

[FF Ninja]

ya know ninja....I respect the effort you put in on this board...but man it sure seems like you back a lot of dogs.....

Like who?

But for the record, I've literally never had Moncrief on a team*. I do find him to be an interesting value proposition this year IF Luck is healthy. I'm in the middle of my first auction right now (slow format - 24 hour clock, resetting upon new high bidder, ebay style max bids) and plan to bid up to 5% of my total budget on him. I think that price makes him a low risk, high reward play. Might not be enough to land him and I'm ok with that possibility since we don't know if Luck is healthy.

*In the spirit of transparency, I did bid on him in several leagues last year, but his actual final price was substantially higher than I was willing to go. In hindsight, I'm grateful to those poor souls that left me in the bidding war dust.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

But for the record, I've literally never had Moncrief on a team*. I do find him to be an interesting value proposition this year IF Luck is healthy. I'm in the middle of my first auction right now (slow format - 24 hour clock, resetting upon new high bidder, ebay style max bids) and plan to bid up to 5% of my total budget on him. I think that price makes him a low risk, high reward play. Might not be enough to land him and I'm ok with that possibility since we don't know if Luck is healthy.

*In the spirit of transparency, I did bid on him in several leagues last year, but his actual final price was substantially higher than I was willing to go. In hindsight, I'm grateful to those poor souls that left me in the bidding war dust.

Moncrief's last remaining hope (excuse?) is the argument that he and Luck have never been healthy together for an extended period.  The problem with that is we only just started August and already both he AND Luck are having injury issues again.  He's a FA at the end of the year so if things continue down the path they seem to be headed health wise this year, we may never see them healthy together.

 

[DropKick]

I gave fair warning to everyone claiming Moncrief was the #1 WR to own on the Colts offense in my Sept 9 2016 post.

Hilton ended the season as a top 5 WR in ppr leagues.  

I don't play in any leagues that only allow one WR per NFL team to be drafted.

 

[FF Ninja]

Moncrief's last remaining hope (excuse?) is the argument that he and Luck have never been healthy together for an extended period.  The problem with that is we only just started August and already both he AND Luck are having injury issues again.  He's a FA at the end of the year so if things continue down the path they seem to be headed health wise this year, we may never see them healthy together.

Very true. But the mild AC sprain doesn't scare me. Luck's injury does, but if you get 10 healthy games out of Luck, that's acceptable given the relatively low price of Moncrief. 

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

He's a FA at the end of the year so if things continue down the path they seem to be headed health wise this year, we may never see them healthy together.

What kind of dynasty outlook are you guys seeing for him? He just turned 24.