Khy
Footballguy
Maybe I'm just a bit biased but I called his massive regression coming into the season and people told me I was insane when I said I wouldn't have drafted him earlier than the 5th RB off the board. I'm in no way trying to discount one of the greatest rookie RB seasons ever. I just felt like he wasn't consistent last season and I felt like his floor was significantly lower than almost everyone seemed to think it was. People seemed to think his floor this season was about 1300 yards rushing and 10 TDs which just seemed ridiculous to me.EBF said:He's just a great all-around back. Power, speed, agility, and receiving skills all rolled into one package. Hence the comparisons to Lynch and Forte.Khy said:I'd like to know how he's "at worst" a Lynch/Forte type for his career? He has more or less 3 good games in his 22 game career. Every other game he averaged about 70-80 yards and maybe 0.3 TDs per game? Which would say he's... "at worst" a Brandon Jacobs type for his career. Not a Lynch/Forte type.EBF said:Add in the first round background and the awesome rookie season, and at worst he's a Lynch/Forte type for his career.Khy said:All of these guys are out performing Martin up to this point... with just as bad if not worse surrounding casts. So while Martin wasn't as bad as his numbers show, I also wouldn't say he's 100% primed for a buy low either. It's possible this ends up being an Olandis Gary situation or something. At the very least, he should have been doing a little bit better than most people thought coming into this season. No dynasty owner is selling him any lower than a Top 5 dynasty RB right now. Even with the injury. And I don't think he's worth that price right now.
If his value drops significantly (late 2nd-mid 3rd round of startups), he'll be a no-brainer buy low in dynasty.
A lot of people don't realize what a big play threat he is. Here are the 2012 NFL leaders in 20+ yard runs:
Peterson - 27
Spiller - 12
Charles - 11
Martin - 11
Foster - 9
Lynch - 9
Newton - 9
Morris - 9
Johnson - 8
Gore - 7
The idea that he's a one-game wonder is totally overblown. Like any RB, he has good weeks and bad weeks, but he was over 4 YPC in 9 of 16 games last season and 4 of 6 games this season. He didn't have a single TD this season and that's what kept his FF numbers down, but he played fine overall. You've got the realize that he's a marked man, Schiano is out of his depth, and the Bucs are one of the WORST passing offenses in the entire NFL. They rank 30 out of 32 teams in passing yards per game. They also rank 31 of 32 teams in points per game. The Bucs are terrible. They don't put Martin in an ideal position to succeed, but he still gets it done because he's that good.
There aren't a lot of legitimate every down backs floating around the NFL these days, so when you find one in FF you've got to hang on tight. Anyone who trades away Martin now for a discount price is making a massive blunder that will haunt them for the next 3-6 years.
When I look at his season last year and his 5 games this year (discounting this week cause he got hurt) he played in 21 games in his young career.
10/21 (47%) of them he finished below 4ypc. 15/21 (71%) of them he finished below 100 yards rushing. 13/21 (61%) he finished without a touchdown.
And perhaps the most shocking? That one Oakland game last year? 251 yards and 4 TDs? Still accounts for approx. 13% of his career yardage and 30% of his career touchdowns after almost 1.5 seasons of play.
He must be one of the least consistent "Top 5 Consensus" RBs I can ever remember. This is irregardless of his injury. And yes, I'm not including his receiving numbers in here as so far this season he's barely been included as a receiver. He was on pace for about 32 receptions and 176 yards this season. Which is so much lower than last year it's not even worth discussing.
Don't know about you, but I like knowing my RB1 has more than a 40% chance of a TD and more than a 30% chance at more than 100 yards week to week.
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