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draft-day mistakes to avoid (1 Viewer)

prgromek

Footballguy
What are some of the common draft-day pitfalls to watch out for? I'm sure many of the FF veterans on here have learned some lessons the hard way over their years of playing fantasy football that would be helpful to those with less experience. I know I have made my share of blunders over the years. I'll start off with a couple

1) Getting caught up in a position run during the draft and panicking, therefore missing out on a great value pick. Most often happens with QBs and TEs

It's the 5th round and you don't have a QB yet. All the sudden Romo, Rivers, and Schaub are picked right before you. Don't panic and take a guy like Ryan or Palmer early just so you don't get shut out at QB. Take the RB or WR that should be gone by now but slipped. QB value will be there later.

2) Drafting based on last year's stats

There's always a couple guys who draft the first-place team from last season. Unfortunately last year's stats don't count this year. Situations change quickly in the NFL, make sure you are projecting a player's value for this season, not just assuming last season will repeat itself.

 
Do not draft undervalued/sleeper picks too early. You initially identified them as value picks becuse they could usually be found later in most drafts - that's where their value comes from. Don't kill your return on your investment by burning a relatively early draft pick on them.

 
If you make a pick you are happy with but everyone gives you a hard time don't worry about it. Maybe you are the SHARK! But stay cool and stick to the plan

 
If you read the FBG "The Perfect Draft" articles every year, you are used to waiting for the value QBs until rounds 7 through 10. Sometimes you can wait too long and get stuck with a sub-standard QB.

In a 12 or 14 team league, you have to watch for the signals-- Big Ben, Carson Palmer, Eli, Schaub being drafted-- then be ready to grab your QB. If that happens in round 5 or 6, so be it. The QBs you have targeted for your perfect draft (Garrard, Hasselbeck, Edwards, etc.) can come off the board very quickly when 10 teams have their QB. Although it is probably a losing strategy, some owners who QB early may grab that backup QB in round 5 or 6--which really forces those waiting on QB to draft one earlier.

Let's say its your turn in round 6, there are 10 QBs off the board, all 3 of your targets are still there, and there are 14 draft picks until your next selection. The Draft Dominator estimates only 2 QBs will be taken between your 6th and 7th round picks. Then the unthinkable happens, people start grabbing backup QBs or QB platoon guys--- 8 QBs go in 14 picks. Now you are taking the 19th best QB as your starter in round 7.

You don't want to be stuck with Byron Leftwich and Duante Culpepper as the only 2 QBs on your roster because you were too rigid in your draft plan.

 
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The best advice I got from one of these threads last year was "Know your league"

We can all do mocks and base our assumptions of when players will be available based on ADP. But there are alot of people who don't use ADP and draft based other motivations/methodologies. As such, the owner taken by surprise by a players being nabbed perhaps as many 2-3 rounds too early or being surprised that certain players are still available 2-3 rounds past when the expectation was that they would be drafted can often get thrown off.

Be prepared for the unexpected...

 
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Properly understand your scoring system. Sounds dumb as hell but you'd be surprised. I play in three main dynasty leagues and in two of them Leon Washington and Jerious Norwood were top 20 RBs last year and have consistently performed WELL above their ADP/value. Why? PPR and return yardage, and no one had a damn clue.

 
Don't be so worried about your team that you don't have fun. The draft is the best part of the fantasy football season! Right?! :hey:

 
If you read the FBG "The Perfect Draft" articles every year, you are used to waiting for the value QBs until rounds 7 through 10. Sometimes you can wait too long and get stuck with a sub-standard QB.In a 12 or 14 team league, you have to watch for the signals-- Big Ben, Carson Palmer, Eli, Schaub being drafted-- then be ready to grab your QB. If that happens in round 5 or 6, so be it. The QBs you have targeted for your perfect draft (Garrard, Hasselbeck, Edwards, etc.) can come off the board very quickly when 10 teams have their QB. Although it is probably a losing strategy, some owners who QB early may grab that backup QB in round 5 or 6--which really forces those waiting on QB to draft one earlier.Let's say its your turn in round 6, there are 10 QBs off the board, all 3 of your targets are still there, and there are 14 draft picks until your next selection. The Draft Dominator estimates only 2 QBs will be taken between your 6th and 7th round picks. Then the unthinkable happens, people start grabbing backup QBs or QB platoon guys--- 8 QBs go in 14 picks. Now you are taking the 19th best QB as your starter in round 7.You don't want to be stuck with Byron Leftwich and Duante Culpepper as the only 2 QBs on your roster because you were too rigid in your draft plan.
:goodposting: I'll just add that if you want a guy go ahead and take him even if it's a round or two early. Never assume that just because everyone drafting between this pick and your next pick already has QB or TE that surely they won't take another one. Wrong, you'll end up with Marcedes Lewis as your #1 TE. :thumbup:
 
Being so intent on value drafting and getting a good deal that you don't go for the boring, consistent choice that is also needed to win a championship.

Concentrating too much on one part of the draft vs. the others, e.g., studying and mocking the studs and middle rounds while you don't know your sleepers, or playing the two ends really well but not managing the middle rounds well. There are different approaches to each, and you many times need to prepare separately or you get surprised.

Not having a plan, or sticking to a plan too closely. Know where your degrees of freedom are within the plan and use them.

 
I'll just add that if you want a guy go ahead and take him even if it's a round or two early.
:goodposting: I agree. In Bush's rookie season, I took him a round or two earlier than he was typically going and he helped me win the league with his late-season surge. Last year, the guy who finished second in my league took Aaron Rodgers about four rounds earlier than he was going based on ADP. Didnt hurt him a bit. Mocks and ADPs are a good source of analysis. But if you like a guy, draft him where you want to take him. At the end of the day, it's your team, not somebody who runs a website, writes in a magazine etc.
 
Don't reach on mediocre players just because you think they'll get more touches/targets this year.
Sort of playing into this... This might be too specific to taste to be a general rule, but I have slowly convinced myself to stick to it: in mid-to-late rounds, skip the low-ceiling vets and draft the rookies you like.Last year I spent way too much time considering whether to draft Justin Fargas, Kenny Watson ( :goodposting: ) or DeSean Jackson.The depth guys who are known quantities often don't have many "startable" weeks and are rarely tradable. Not that there are many DeSeans or Donnie Averys out there, but those risky picks make your lineup more flexible than "40 yards a week and pray for a TD" semi-scrubs.
 
I'll just add that if you want a guy go ahead and take him even if it's a round or two early.
:moneybag: I agree. In Bush's rookie season, I took him a round or two earlier than he was typically going and he helped me win the league with his late-season surge. Last year, the guy who finished second in my league took Aaron Rodgers about four rounds earlier than he was going based on ADP. Didnt hurt him a bit. Mocks and ADPs are a good source of analysis. But if you like a guy, draft him where you want to take him. At the end of the day, it's your team, not somebody who runs a website, writes in a magazine etc.
:goodposting: Basically don't get brainwashed by mocks, adps, and fantasy websites/magazines.The most crushing thing to me EVERY YEAR is waiting too long for a player I really want. Last year I, like every other fantasy message board member loved Chris Johnson, but thought I could "wait one more round" to select him. Don't obsess over value, drafting a winning team is the goal, but that doesn't mean you have to fill your roster with a bunch of guys you don't care to watch on Sundays.
 
The best advice I got from one of these threads last year was "Know your league"
:goodposting: So true and reminds me of one of the best pieces of poker advice I ever got:

"If the table is loose, play tight. If the table it tight, play loose."

If the other owners are conservative and risk-averse, then you'll benefit from taking more chances.

If the other owners are gamblers, then you'll benefit from taking fewer chances.

 
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Do not draft undervalued/sleeper picks too early. You initially identified them as value picks becuse they could usually be found later in most drafts - that's where their value comes from. Don't kill your return on your investment by burning a relatively early draft pick on them.
My advice would actually be:Don't wait too long for your sleeper or undervalued pick. If you draft in a competitive league, you aren't the only one who knows ADP and has a player or two targeted. Don't go nuts, but a round early to secure that talent can help you win your league.
 
Lots of great advice here.

Be flexible. Have plan B, C & D ready to go. Let the picks come to you. You may have your heart set for a certain player in round 3. A RB for descriptions sake. Then a unexpected high end wr is there for you to take. Be flexible and consider taking the unexpected value.

Don't take another owners advice. I learned this the hard way. My first year in a money buddy league. My very own cousin talked me off taking unknown clinton portis. Instead he told me to fill my roster with a kicker in round 6 or 7. I picked Jason Elam!!!!! Clinton Portis ended up tearing the league apart. I finished in 2nd or 3rd. With Portis on my team the championship would have been mine!!!!! Gannon, Garner, Ricky Williams and Portis would have guaranteed me a lot of cash. Oh well. That was an expensive lesson I have never forgotten.

Last season another owner tried to talk me off Forte. Selling Kevin Smith to me. I rejected his advice and picked forte in round 5 or 6.

Work on your depth of knowledge. This always always helps. Work on identifying strong RB4 or 5. Or WR 3,4 or 5.

If you can't handle your beer. Save it for after the draft. Boozing has slowly been phased out of our draft. Smart owners realize buzzed drafting = drunk drafting = bad teams. Odd trend. This goes for smoking tweeds to. Pass up on those early bowls. Be the enabler.

Bring decoy cheatsheets from sites you don't trust. Other owners are bound to ask for help. Give them crappy cheatsheets from ESPN or CBS. Those always suck.

Arrive early so you can pick a good seat with lots of space. I always arrive hours ahead

double check your gear before you leave home. Make a checklist of cheatsheets, schedule, bye weeks(superjohns is dope), computer.

Definitely do some mocks at fantasyfootballcalculator. Walking into your 1st draft without doing any mock drafts will overwhelm you. Leading to frustration & confusion and ultimately bad picks.

Don't give away your strategy while at the draft by talking shop to much. Other owners will key in on your good ideas. And steal them. I will usually talk about players i am not targeting.

Keep a copy of the entire draft and study it after. This goes along with knowing your league. See if you can identify any trends or owners style. And look over your team seeing where you could have done better.

If you have football guys ADP list or any adp list. There is no need to strictly adhere to its findings. Last season Chris Johnson had an ADP of round 13(i think). I snapped him up in round 10. Because I had a feeling another owner was going to take him. Your personal draft may not mirror an ADP list.

Enjoy.

 
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Don't reach on mediocre players just because you think they'll get more touches/targets this year.
Sort of playing into this... This might be too specific to taste to be a general rule, but I have slowly convinced myself to stick to it: in mid-to-late rounds, skip the low-ceiling vets and draft the rookies you like.Last year I spent way too much time considering whether to draft Justin Fargas, Kenny Watson ( :football: ) or DeSean Jackson.The depth guys who are known quantities often don't have many "startable" weeks and are rarely tradable. Not that there are many DeSeans or Donnie Averys out there, but those risky picks make your lineup more flexible than "40 yards a week and pray for a TD" semi-scrubs.
The opposite could also be true. Guys like Hines Ward and Donald Driver can often be had at bargain prices because people are chasing the rookies or that 3rd year player they just KNOW is going break out.
 
If you read the FBG "The Perfect Draft" articles every year, you are used to waiting for the value QBs until rounds 7 through 10. Sometimes you can wait too long and get stuck with a sub-standard QB.In a 12 or 14 team league, you have to watch for the signals-- Big Ben, Carson Palmer, Eli, Schaub being drafted-- then be ready to grab your QB. If that happens in round 5 or 6, so be it. The QBs you have targeted for your perfect draft (Garrard, Hasselbeck, Edwards, etc.) can come off the board very quickly when 10 teams have their QB. Although it is probably a losing strategy, some owners who QB early may grab that backup QB in round 5 or 6--which really forces those waiting on QB to draft one earlier.Let's say its your turn in round 6, there are 10 QBs off the board, all 3 of your targets are still there, and there are 14 draft picks until your next selection. The Draft Dominator estimates only 2 QBs will be taken between your 6th and 7th round picks. Then the unthinkable happens, people start grabbing backup QBs or QB platoon guys--- 8 QBs go in 14 picks. Now you are taking the 19th best QB as your starter in round 7.You don't want to be stuck with Byron Leftwich and Duante Culpepper as the only 2 QBs on your roster because you were too rigid in your draft plan.
Something like that happened to me in my first year in a new league several years ago. I had done all the preparation based on ADP and all that, only it soon became evident that most of the guys in this league were very inexperienced. I took a RB in 1st round, then another in the 2nd round. In the 3rd I think I took a WR. Then in the 4th round, there sits a RB that was "supposed to" go in the 2nd round (Kevan Barlow :X ). I couldn't pass up that value! Then as the draft went on, every time my turn came up, there sat a player who was supposed to go several rounds sooner, but none of them QBs. I knew I needed one, but I didn't want someone else to get this incredible value! Meanwhile, 3 teams had their backup QB by the end of the 5th round. I ended up with Josh McCown and Byron Leftwich as my QBs. :thumbup: That season did not go so well. This also goes with the "no your league" rule.
 
Jeremy said:
Don't reach on mediocre players just because you think they'll get more touches/targets this year.
Sort of playing into this... This might be too specific to taste to be a general rule, but I have slowly convinced myself to stick to it: in mid-to-late rounds, skip the low-ceiling vets and draft the rookies you like.Last year I spent way too much time considering whether to draft Justin Fargas, Kenny Watson ( :thumbdown: ) or DeSean Jackson.The depth guys who are known quantities often don't have many "startable" weeks and are rarely tradable. Not that there are many DeSeans or Donnie Averys out there, but those risky picks make your lineup more flexible than "40 yards a week and pray for a TD" semi-scrubs.
The opposite could also be true. Guys like Hines Ward and Donald Driver can often be had at bargain prices because people are chasing the rookies or that 3rd year player they just KNOW is going break out.
:goodposting: A good team has a mix of fixed ceiling consistent players and high upside less consistent players. There are weeks that I want to start Hines Ward in place of an injury, and other weeks where Donnie Avery is the right fill in. Which one to pick first in the draft comes down to your league and how many favor the names vs. how many favor the sleeper names. Torry Holt is high on my list this year, same as Avery. Both will likely be passed over till the end.
 
all good stuff above.

I would add don't talk to anyone and focus unless you are trying to throw a league mate off their game...

I have found out over the years and many live drafts how little study is put into kickers and what kind of offense they are going to have in the coming seasons...

 
Within reason, if there's a guy you think is going to have a huge year, don't be afraid to reach for them a round or two early and risk kicking yourself the whole season when they go off. I made that mistake with Brady and Moss two years ago, and didn't end up with either of them on any of my rosters, and I could have had either of them without overpaying too much in all of my drafts. Add to that, don't rely too much on ADP -- it's a guide, but knowing the tendencies of your leaguemates is a much better tool.

 
Lots of great advice here. Be flexible. Have plan B, C & D ready to go. Let the picks come to you. You may have your heart set for a certain player in round 3. A RB for descriptions sake. Then a unexpected high end wr is there for you to take. Be flexible and consider taking the unexpected value. Don't take another owners advice. I learned this the hard way. My first year in a money buddy league. My very own cousin talked me off taking unknown clinton portis. Instead he told me to fill my roster with a kicker in round 6 or 7. I picked Jason Elam!!!!! Clinton Portis ended up tearing the league apart. I finished in 2nd or 3rd. With Portis on my team the championship would have been mine!!!!! Gannon, Garner, Ricky Williams and Portis would have guaranteed me a lot of cash. Oh well. That was an expensive lesson I have never forgotten. Last season another owner tried to talk me off Forte. Selling Kevin Smith to me. I rejected his advice and picked forte in round 5 or 6. Work on your depth of knowledge. This always always helps. Work on identifying strong RB4 or 5. Or WR 3,4 or 5. If you can't handle your beer. Save it for after the draft. Boozing has slowly been phased out of our draft. Smart owners realize buzzed drafting = drunk drafting = bad teams. Odd trend. This goes for smoking tweeds to. Pass up on those early bowls. Be the enabler. Bring decoy cheatsheets from sites you don't trust. Other owners are bound to ask for help. Give them crappy cheatsheets from ESPN or CBS. Those always suck. Arrive early so you can pick a good seat with lots of space. I always arrive hours aheaddouble check your gear before you leave home. Make a checklist of cheatsheets, schedule, bye weeks(superjohns is dope), computer. Definitely do some mocks at fantasyfootballcalculator. Walking into your 1st draft without doing any mock drafts will overwhelm you. Leading to frustration & confusion and ultimately bad picks. Don't give away your strategy while at the draft by talking shop to much. Other owners will key in on your good ideas. And steal them. I will usually talk about players i am not targeting. Keep a copy of the entire draft and study it after. This goes along with knowing your league. See if you can identify any trends or owners style. And look over your team seeing where you could have done better. If you have football guys ADP list or any adp list. There is no need to strictly adhere to its findings. Last season Chris Johnson had an ADP of round 13(i think). I snapped him up in round 10. Because I had a feeling another owner was going to take him. Your personal draft may not mirror an ADP list. Enjoy.
:goodposting: :goodposting: :goodposting: Ths list should be posted in all drafts rooms.I'll add if an owner (especially a newbie) totally whiffs on a bad pick, it's ok to gently poke fun of him about it but then move on. At every draft, there's that one guy that bloviates about how bad every pick is and how much smarter he is than the rest of the league. Don't be that guy.
 
Properly understand your scoring system. Sounds dumb as hell but you'd be surprised. I play in three main dynasty leagues and in two of them Leon Washington and Jerious Norwood were top 20 RBs last year and have consistently performed WELL above their ADP/value. Why? PPR and return yardage, and no one had a damn clue.
:yawn: Scoring and lineups are key, many people forget this. People tend to remember when you're in a 2QB league, but I've seen people overdraft RBs in leagues where you don't even have to start any. They're picking their 3rd RB in the 4th round and leave great WRs available when your lineup is something like 1 QB, 0-2 RBs, 3-5 WRs, 1-2 TE.
 
oh, and in dynasty leagues - drafting RBs who don't really have top talent but whose situation is great, early. Think Marcel Shipp a few years back. Or (IMO) Forte now.

 
Keep a copy of the entire draft and study it after. This goes along with knowing your league. See if you can identify any trends or owners style. And look over your team seeing where you could have done better.
:goodposting: After analyzing the last four years of drafts last year, I broke down rounds 1-4 and 5-8 to determine trends in how others draft. Some takeaways:- Seven owners will take 2 RBs, 1 WR and 1 QB in the first four rounds (order varies yearly). Every year. - Three owners take ther TE in the 7th. Every year.- One guy never takes a QB before round 7. Every year.- One guy takes back-to-back QBs. Every year.Here's something I learned last year - if you know your divisions prior to the draft, use it to your advantage. I was actually on the receiving end of this strategy. I had yet to take a QB, so two of the guys that were in my division deliberately took their QB2s early. Of course, I wound up with Cutler at 8.11 and Rodgers at 10.11, so their attempt failed. But more power to them for seeing an opportunity to thin the player pool when they knew I hadn't drafted that position yet.
 
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Do not draft undervalued/sleeper picks too early. You initially identified them as value picks becuse they could usually be found later in most drafts - that's where their value comes from. Don't kill your return on your investment by burning a relatively early draft pick on them.
I used to think this way also, but then someone would chose the player before I had the chance. I put together my own rankings which can differ from traditional rankings. I may have a player valued higher than most and could possibly wait but BANG someone takes him. I lose out on my higher ranked player just because I could maybe get him later and at a perceived value. Since then I will often take a player 1-2 rounds earlier than many have projected. I believe in my rankings and would rather have my value player than wait and risk missing out.
 
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I agree that nothing sucks worse than watching your sleeper blow up on somebody else's team while you sit there with your team of "value" picks. Knowing when to pull the trigger on your targeted players can be a tough call. If you're good at evaluating players, don't be afraid to pull the trigger a round or two early on a guy. Teams drafted by the book rarely win.

 
Don't be brainwashed by ADPs, "expert" mock drafts, and pre season rankings.

There is NO science to this, it's a lot of luck...do your own research and select who you feel good about. Drafts would be boring if everyone just picked on down the "expert" rankings/projections. Have fun with it.

The best thing about taking someone a few rounds early is that YOU can start a position rush...thus leaving you with a steal at your next selection.

 
Make and announcement before the draft that name dropping isn't encouraged. There's always someone who yells out, "I can't believe XYZ is still on the board????"

 
Know your leagues rules! This sounds elementary I know, but you'd be amazed how many people will trip up by not fully understanding things in their league rules.

For instance in a league I played in last year the guys setting it up set a limit on QBs to 2 per roster (in a 12 player league). Prior to the draft we all deliberated on the rules and have an open discussion for anything we thought should be changed. I petitioned extremely hard to have this rule changed but to no avail. I then proceeded to make QBs my last 2 picks of the draft (mainly to simply drive my point home) and then cherry picked the WW all season long picking any one of 10 available starting QBs every week and won best record as well as total points honors (though I lost my 1st playoff game thanks to injuries). Needless to say I'm pretty sure they will be changing that rule this year.

 
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Have a flexible plan that can be adapted based on the flow of the draft.

I tier/bucket players at each position. Factor in ADP. And in each round identify where I would be willing to take a player. For instance, in a 12 team redraft league my first 3 round plan might look something like this.

(1) - Top 10 RB, Top 2 WR

(2) - Top 18 RB, Top 5 WR, Brees

(3) - Top 25 RB, Top 8 WR, Top 3 QB

If the league allows trading I will vary my strategy and often stock up on value players with the intention of trading them later in the season. My roster looks unbalanced and very mediocre to start the season. In one league that I have won 3 out of the last 4 years, owners would consistantly fill their starting roster spots before adding their #3 RB, so I would just stock up on 5-6 RB's and then trade them for elite WR's later in the season once RB's starting going down or owners players have bye weeks. Obviously this only works when playing with guppies.

 
oh, and in dynasty leagues - drafting RBs who don't really have top talent but whose situation is great, early. Think Marcel Shipp a few years back. Or (IMO) Forte now.
I do exactly the opposite. Draft the talent because the cream always rises to the top.Marcel Shipp? How did that work out for you over time?
 
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Have a flexible plan that can be adapted based on the flow of the draft.I tier/bucket players at each position. Factor in ADP. And in each round identify where I would be willing to take a player. For instance, in a 12 team redraft league my first 3 round plan might look something like this. (1) - Top 10 RB, Top 2 WR(2) - Top 18 RB, Top 5 WR, Brees(3) - Top 25 RB, Top 8 WR, Top 3 QB If the league allows trading I will vary my strategy and often stock up on value players with the intention of trading them later in the season. My roster looks unbalanced and very mediocre to start the season. In one league that I have won 3 out of the last 4 years, owners would consistantly fill their starting roster spots before adding their #3 RB, so I would just stock up on 5-6 RB's and then trade them for elite WR's later in the season once RB's starting going down or owners players have bye weeks. Obviously this only works when playing with guppies.
Back to knowing your league tendancies though, I've tried this a couple times in a league that is fairly inactive and had no success. Then again, I couldn't sell electric blankets to eskimos, let alone ice cubes but it sucks to be stuck with 4 top 30 RBs when you can only start 2 and be watching your playoff hopes slip away 'cause your WRs & QB are below average.
 
Play it safe in the first 4-5 rounds. Once the proven talent dries up, gamble on talented players with opportunity.

 

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