Ebaker5
Footballguy
Similar here just under even for me. Have Palmer/Fitz/Cards D left to run.
Never followed it this closely, when will next weeks prices (including Monday night) be posted?
Last edited by a moderator:
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Draft Kings Week 7 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ebaker5
- Start date
Never followed it this closely, when will next weeks prices (including Monday night) be posted?
Not sure exactly when they are released but I know they will be out by tomorrow morning.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Just wanted to give you a quick thanks - made me think about spreading around what I do and have had a couple successful weeks in a row. Throwing in a 3x or two and a 5x, just doing $1 entries. Had two good lineups this week and looks like I might cash in all my entries - there is one larger double up I am 6 away from the cutoff with Fitz going and a 5x I am 2 away from the cutoff with Fitz still going. Looks like I might cash in 2 of my gpps and maybe one other (one I am sitting at 172pts with nobody left to go, but I think with Az playing tomorrow night enough people might catch me and bump me out). Makes this more fun if I can at least make a buck or two once in awhile.jandyt said:
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
NICE! I also got over 200pts for the first time as well. Of course this had to be one of the few lineups I didn't put the Rams D into as well. Got to 206.6 with:Zyphros said:
Brady
Foster
Duke Johnson
Decker
Diggs
Hilton
Gronk
L.Green
Redskins D
Ironically, this was my gpp that I thought was the worst. I am just a Pats fan, so until they stop scoring, I am just probably going to throw a $1 entry and have some sort of Patriot double or triple stack.
Good to hear your having success the last few weeks it does make it a lot more fun when your winning.
I might actually make money on GPP this week, first time since week 2. Cash games has been great for me this year but I suck at GPP which is why only about 5% of my play is true GPP.
Hybrid
Footballguy
Winston/Evans stack worked out pretty well for me in a bunch of GPPs. Went with 100% exposure to Gurley/Rams D. Woods and Washington were my two cheap plays I put in a ton of lineups. The key for me most weeks in GPPs is identifying a core group of players I'll have in most every lineup, finding the cheap WR options with upside, and rotating them through a few different stacks.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hybrid
Footballguy
Friendly reminder to take advantage of the late swap on Draft Kings. If you're just outside of cashing in some contests, whether it's a H2H or 50/50, look at the rosters just ahead of you. You can guess at who the other entries have rostered based on remaining salary and pivot to another option.
For example, I trail by a few points in a couple of my H2Hs with only Palmer remaining. Based on salaries, I've guessed my opponents also have only Palmer, so I've changed to Flacco in those contests. I still like Palmer better tonight, but I have a 0% chance of winning if we both have him.
I'm sure a lot of you already know this, but hope it helps some people!
For example, I trail by a few points in a couple of my H2Hs with only Palmer remaining. Based on salaries, I've guessed my opponents also have only Palmer, so I've changed to Flacco in those contests. I still like Palmer better tonight, but I have a 0% chance of winning if we both have him.
I'm sure a lot of you already know this, but hope it helps some people!
Last edited by a moderator:
Have a similar situation in H2H this week trailing by less than 10 with Palmer/Fitz left and almost sure my opponent has the same combo remaining. Switched Fitz for S Smith to give me a chance to win. Funny thing another H2H I lead by a few points with the same situation wonder if my opponent will switch players.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Just curious - what kind of lineups do you roll out for these/what is your process for picking them?
Formatting sucks but stick with me 
Some interesting/frustrating notes from me this week:
My best lineup:
Pos Player FPTS QB Andrew Luck 29.02 lock RB Todd Gurley 35.3 lock RB Lamar Miller 41.6 lock WR Stefon Diggs 26.7 lock WR Julio Jones 24.2 lock WR Donte Moncrief 13.4 lock TE Jordan Reed 30.2 lock FLEX Arian Foster O 29.5 lock DST Rams 25 lock TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 254.92
1. I had 8 entries into the Milly Maker, this wasn't one of them. Would be sitting at 5k right now.
2. This is the only lineup I had WITHOUT Nate Washington.
3. This is the last lineup I made on Sunday morning after hearing/digesting all the news.
4. I entered 5 events with this lineup and placed 1st in them all, no tournaments though.
NAME
RANK
NFL GIANT $25 Double Up [$25,000 Guar...
1/1130
NFL 10x Booster [Top 5 Win $20] (Ear...
1/57
NFL 10x Booster [Top 5 Win $50] (Ear...
1/57
NFL $5 Quintuple Up [Top 10 Win $25] ...
1/56
NFL $25 Triple Up [Top 6 Win $75] (E...
1/20
Another BAD blunder I made - upon hearing that Dion Lewis was out. I decided to play BLount in a couple of lineups and limit my exposure to L Miller. In this lineup I took Miller out and inserted Blount. You can do the numbers:
Pos Player FPTS QB Andrew Luck 29.02 lock RB L. Blount -0.3 lock RB Todd Gurley 35.3 lock WR Stefon Diggs 26.7 lock WR Mike Evans 33.4 lock WR Julio Jones 24.2 lock TE Delanie Walker 12.5 lock FLEX T.Y. Hilton 34 lock DST Rams 25 lock TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 219.82 Overall, this was my best week yet. made 4X my investment.
Things I learned:
My Sunday morning lineups are consistently performing better than lineups made during the week.
I need a better tracking system of what lineup is used where.
Some interesting/frustrating notes from me this week:
My best lineup:
Pos Player FPTS QB Andrew Luck 29.02 lock RB Todd Gurley 35.3 lock RB Lamar Miller 41.6 lock WR Stefon Diggs 26.7 lock WR Julio Jones 24.2 lock WR Donte Moncrief 13.4 lock TE Jordan Reed 30.2 lock FLEX Arian Foster O 29.5 lock DST Rams 25 lock TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 254.92
1. I had 8 entries into the Milly Maker, this wasn't one of them. Would be sitting at 5k right now.
2. This is the only lineup I had WITHOUT Nate Washington.
3. This is the last lineup I made on Sunday morning after hearing/digesting all the news.
4. I entered 5 events with this lineup and placed 1st in them all, no tournaments though.
NAME
RANK
NFL GIANT $25 Double Up [$25,000 Guar...
1/1130
NFL 10x Booster [Top 5 Win $20] (Ear...
1/57
NFL 10x Booster [Top 5 Win $50] (Ear...
1/57
NFL $5 Quintuple Up [Top 10 Win $25] ...
1/56
NFL $25 Triple Up [Top 6 Win $75] (E...
1/20
Another BAD blunder I made - upon hearing that Dion Lewis was out. I decided to play BLount in a couple of lineups and limit my exposure to L Miller. In this lineup I took Miller out and inserted Blount. You can do the numbers:
Pos Player FPTS QB Andrew Luck 29.02 lock RB L. Blount -0.3 lock RB Todd Gurley 35.3 lock WR Stefon Diggs 26.7 lock WR Mike Evans 33.4 lock WR Julio Jones 24.2 lock TE Delanie Walker 12.5 lock FLEX T.Y. Hilton 34 lock DST Rams 25 lock TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 219.82 Overall, this was my best week yet. made 4X my investment.
Things I learned:
My Sunday morning lineups are consistently performing better than lineups made during the week.
I need a better tracking system of what lineup is used where.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Sitting at 139 with Palmer and Steve Smith in the large contest 50/50's
Wondering if 160 ish will cash?
Highest I've been in one big GPP I was in 2,800 place of 383k with Stevie Johnson dart and he didn't "hit" big to bring me into big money. I faded to like 8,000 place and will probably fall to like 10-15k and only get $6-8 bucks. Crazy how you can finish in 8,000 of 383k in a $3 pool and not win much.
Wondering if 160 ish will cash?
Highest I've been in one big GPP I was in 2,800 place of 383k with Stevie Johnson dart and he didn't "hit" big to bring me into big money. I faded to like 8,000 place and will probably fall to like 10-15k and only get $6-8 bucks. Crazy how you can finish in 8,000 of 383k in a $3 pool and not win much.
Last edited by a moderator:
I start the same way I do with my cash lineups looking at the top plays based on my projections but then look at expected ownership which I ignore for cash games. While I don't just go with guys I believe will be low owned I do switch out some of my projected extremely high owned plays. This week I had Freeman in 100% of cash games but took him out of most GPPs. Unfortunately I also removed the SL DT from a number of GPPs while they were also 100% in cash lineups. Gurley I did end up 100% everywhere his value was just too good IMO to remove him from GPP even with high ownership expected.KarmaPolice said:
Side note: I know a lot of people would not put anyone in 100% of cash lineups but I tend have pretty high risk tolerance if I am real high on a player which some weeks can be multiple guys and other weeks no one. This week I actually had 4 guys in all cash lineups which is unusually.
Ebaker5
Footballguy
Broke even, winnings were in 50/50's and 3 man leagues and one GPP (won $2 there). All my double ups back fired, was 3-5 positions away from cashing in those.
Have been playing the Beginner $1 games. Gonna bump up to the $2 50/50's this week nix the 3 man and double ups for the most part and maybe 1 GPP. Gonna try to generate a little better return. Fingers crossed.
Congrats to those that finished in the black tonight.
Have been playing the Beginner $1 games. Gonna bump up to the $2 50/50's this week nix the 3 man and double ups for the most part and maybe 1 GPP. Gonna try to generate a little better return. Fingers crossed.
Congrats to those that finished in the black tonight.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hybrid
Footballguy
Pretty much the same here. Got rocked in my H2Hs this week. Also missed cashing in a few X5s by a point with a Palmer, Fitz, Floyd roster. Ugh.Still a good week though, just could have been better. Wanted that game to go to overtime.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Missed my 5x by 2 spots. I am guessing I got passed by a S.Smith or J.Brown owners as Fitz didn't perform as expected tonight. Still ended up overall doubling up+ my $. I already have some ideas for week 8.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
You thought 165 would pay I said 180, split the difference...you're close man. Don't stop
I would stick to $1 games unless you play is well over $100 for the week. I ran 87 contests last week and will run 99 this week all at the dollar level. If you want to lower risk going to all 50/50 will do that. Personally I would want to have some X2, X3, X5 because it will pump up winnings if you have a good week but its all about risk aversion and I would never tell someone else how much risk they should take with their money.
Sorry your not enjoying it and though I hate to see people give up on it, if your not enjoying it then its not worth doing unless your grinding out big profits. While I am looking to make money if it wasn't fun I would quit because I don't make enough money for the time I spend if I didn't enjoy it.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
had my best week. Gurley/Miller backfield was huge. I did miss on some WR, the standard Fitz/Marshall/Hopkins wasn't very productive. Did best where I rolled out Evans and TY and Diggs
Last edited by a moderator:
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Still curious what players you had and what type of contests/$ amt you did where 170 didn't get you anything back this week. I was around that same point total and cashed in all but 2 of mine this week.Nothing against those of you that continue to play
But if I can put up 170 and only finish 30% up the ladder against 50000 other people in a big-field double-up and not cash once in 40 contests this week, then this isn't the game for me. It's been three weeks in a row and maybe that's the sign. It's just not enjoyable. It's not like regular fantasy football for me, or like poker, when you can exploit your opponent's mistakes directly. This seems much more random, back in the poker days you just had to be at about 'break-even' in your play strategy to turn a little profit here and there. This seems like getting to that point requires more risk-taking in lineup creation than I want to do. There's no 'grinding' out solid safe lineups for reliable profit, to just cash in a double-up seems to require taking some outsized chances to get in that top half.
I've mixed up games, I've gone to single-entries, I've tried the run of the place. With more fish in the pool it was fun, maybe things dried up since the season started, but I'm not enjoying it like I was. I've got a little profit left and it might just be time to cash that out and take a win. I don't want to have to change my play-style to more gambling in my construction methods and risk having a profit turn to a loss in the process.
I do agree with you to a point though - seeing these 270pt+ lineups consistently in the gpps along with these 40 or 50 entries in one tournament for the same user really gives me pause and think about how much I want to do this.
I played 82 cash games (50/50, X2, X3, X5) last week and will play 93 this week. I only play the 2 major slates and only 1 dollar single entry games which I feel lowers variance. I only play players that are rated high based on my projections don't go with lower ranked riskier players except occasionally in the small number of GPPs I do. I only thing I do that I would consider more risky than most is I will regularly play 100% of players I project very highly. I play with a small bankroll started at 100 dollars and only 30% of it a week. Has worked well for me even with the climbing cut lines. That said if your not enjoying it I would quit as for us small money players if its not fun, its not worth it as we will never make enough money to justify the time for doing something that's not enjoyable.This is part of my issue as well... it seems the only way to succeed consistently would be to "gamble" more, that is, make riskier picks in cash games and pray they hit, or, "gamble more", as in, make a wider variety of lineups and enter them into a vast array of contests at various multiplier levels, knowing that more than half will bust but hope that the ones that do succeed to so at so great a clip that they make up for the losses. The guys that I do see winning are doing both: making decisions I would not make and backing them with large amounts of cash.Still curious what players you had and what type of contests/$ amt you did where 170 didn't get you anything back this week. I was around that same point total and cashed in all but 2 of mine this week.Nothing against those of you that continue to play
But if I can put up 170 and only finish 30% up the ladder against 50000 other people in a big-field double-up and not cash once in 40 contests this week, then this isn't the game for me. It's been three weeks in a row and maybe that's the sign. It's just not enjoyable. It's not like regular fantasy football for me, or like poker, when you can exploit your opponent's mistakes directly. This seems much more random, back in the poker days you just had to be at about 'break-even' in your play strategy to turn a little profit here and there. This seems like getting to that point requires more risk-taking in lineup creation than I want to do. There's no 'grinding' out solid safe lineups for reliable profit, to just cash in a double-up seems to require taking some outsized chances to get in that top half.
I've mixed up games, I've gone to single-entries, I've tried the run of the place. With more fish in the pool it was fun, maybe things dried up since the season started, but I'm not enjoying it like I was. I've got a little profit left and it might just be time to cash that out and take a win. I don't want to have to change my play-style to more gambling in my construction methods and risk having a profit turn to a loss in the process.
I do agree with you to a point though - seeing these 270pt+ lineups consistently in the gpps along with these 40 or 50 entries in one tournament for the same user really gives me pause and think about how much I want to do this.
The first is an increase in risk I'm not willing to make, and the second requires a bankroll and variance increase I'm not going to take on either.
I've kind of avoided posting my lineups on purpose, as I don't want to get into backwards thinking and results-oriented logic. Like in poker, if you call an even money bet that you'll hit a flush on the river (a 20% chance), but it hits and you win, that doesn't mean you made the "correct" decision even if it won. So I don't want to look at one player and then say to myself "It was dumb to pick so-and-so against the whomevers, I should have known the play script would be to run/pass/whatever more than was expected". If I'm going to do that, I might as well just gamble directly on the games themselves in Vegas and cut out the middleman, because it requires picking games and spreads, and more importantly--upsets at such a level it'd be easier to just be a professional gambler and bust the casinos. Obviously that's not a tenable long-term proposition.
I will say I had a variety of players going. I intentionally constructed lineups so I wasn't too exposed to any one player or game. So, I did not have Devonta Freeman and DeAndre Hopkins in all my lineups. I had Philip Rivers in one, in most I had Todd Gurley and the Rams defense, which did well. I projected my scores to range from 160-175, and they all landed in that area. Last week, same thing... projected to score 150-170 everywhere, did, and only cashed in a handful of contests and had a down week overall. Same the week before that. If I make my projection level consistently, then I don't want to get into what individual players did what. It doesn't seem to be worth discussing. They scored what I thought they would.
As far as contests, I entered about 40 double-ups ranging from $1 to $10. Some were multi-entry, some were single entry. Some were 50000+ entrants, and some were only like 57. I did Thursday-Monday, Sunday-Monday, and Sunday Only slates.
I didn't even come close to cashing in the vast majority of them. Some I only beat 30% of the field, most I beat about 40-45%, but couldn't crack the top half with what should have been decent lineups for "grinding", which is the mindset I entered into this experiment with.
Looking back, in the first two weeks of the season, I had lineups "miss", score only 133-145, and still make a profit and win more than half the contests I entered. Last couple of weeks 155 wouldn't guarantee a win, and this week 170 came up 20% of the field short.
While making a living playing DFS sounds appealing on some level and I have been successful with small sums, I like you have no interest in putting large amounts of cash in play.
Ebaker5
Footballguy
Well SaidI played 82 cash games (50/50, X2, X3, X5) last week and will play 93 this week. I only play the 2 major slates and only 1 dollar single entry games which I feel lowers variance. I only play players that are rated high based on my projections don't go with lower ranked riskier players except occasionally in the small number of GPPs I do. I only thing I do that I would consider more risky than most is I will regularly play 100% of players I project very highly. I play with a small bankroll started at 100 dollars and only 30% of it a week. Has worked well for me even with the climbing cut lines. That said if your not enjoying it I would quit as for us small money players if its not fun, its not worth it as we will never make enough money to justify the time for doing something that's not enjoyable.This is part of my issue as well... it seems the only way to succeed consistently would be to "gamble" more, that is, make riskier picks in cash games and pray they hit, or, "gamble more", as in, make a wider variety of lineups and enter them into a vast array of contests at various multiplier levels, knowing that more than half will bust but hope that the ones that do succeed to so at so great a clip that they make up for the losses. The guys that I do see winning are doing both: making decisions I would not make and backing them with large amounts of cash.Still curious what players you had and what type of contests/$ amt you did where 170 didn't get you anything back this week. I was around that same point total and cashed in all but 2 of mine this week.Nothing against those of you that continue to play
But if I can put up 170 and only finish 30% up the ladder against 50000 other people in a big-field double-up and not cash once in 40 contests this week, then this isn't the game for me. It's been three weeks in a row and maybe that's the sign. It's just not enjoyable. It's not like regular fantasy football for me, or like poker, when you can exploit your opponent's mistakes directly. This seems much more random, back in the poker days you just had to be at about 'break-even' in your play strategy to turn a little profit here and there. This seems like getting to that point requires more risk-taking in lineup creation than I want to do. There's no 'grinding' out solid safe lineups for reliable profit, to just cash in a double-up seems to require taking some outsized chances to get in that top half.
I've mixed up games, I've gone to single-entries, I've tried the run of the place. With more fish in the pool it was fun, maybe things dried up since the season started, but I'm not enjoying it like I was. I've got a little profit left and it might just be time to cash that out and take a win. I don't want to have to change my play-style to more gambling in my construction methods and risk having a profit turn to a loss in the process.
I do agree with you to a point though - seeing these 270pt+ lineups consistently in the gpps along with these 40 or 50 entries in one tournament for the same user really gives me pause and think about how much I want to do this.
The first is an increase in risk I'm not willing to make, and the second requires a bankroll and variance increase I'm not going to take on either.
I've kind of avoided posting my lineups on purpose, as I don't want to get into backwards thinking and results-oriented logic. Like in poker, if you call an even money bet that you'll hit a flush on the river (a 20% chance), but it hits and you win, that doesn't mean you made the "correct" decision even if it won. So I don't want to look at one player and then say to myself "It was dumb to pick so-and-so against the whomevers, I should have known the play script would be to run/pass/whatever more than was expected". If I'm going to do that, I might as well just gamble directly on the games themselves in Vegas and cut out the middleman, because it requires picking games and spreads, and more importantly--upsets at such a level it'd be easier to just be a professional gambler and bust the casinos. Obviously that's not a tenable long-term proposition.
I will say I had a variety of players going. I intentionally constructed lineups so I wasn't too exposed to any one player or game. So, I did not have Devonta Freeman and DeAndre Hopkins in all my lineups. I had Philip Rivers in one, in most I had Todd Gurley and the Rams defense, which did well. I projected my scores to range from 160-175, and they all landed in that area. Last week, same thing... projected to score 150-170 everywhere, did, and only cashed in a handful of contests and had a down week overall. Same the week before that. If I make my projection level consistently, then I don't want to get into what individual players did what. It doesn't seem to be worth discussing. They scored what I thought they would.
As far as contests, I entered about 40 double-ups ranging from $1 to $10. Some were multi-entry, some were single entry. Some were 50000+ entrants, and some were only like 57. I did Thursday-Monday, Sunday-Monday, and Sunday Only slates.
I didn't even come close to cashing in the vast majority of them. Some I only beat 30% of the field, most I beat about 40-45%, but couldn't crack the top half with what should have been decent lineups for "grinding", which is the mindset I entered into this experiment with.
Looking back, in the first two weeks of the season, I had lineups "miss", score only 133-145, and still make a profit and win more than half the contests I entered. Last couple of weeks 155 wouldn't guarantee a win, and this week 170 came up 20% of the field short.
While making a living playing DFS sounds appealing on some level and I have been successful with small sums, I like you have no interest in putting large amounts of cash in play.
This is why I avoid multi entry cash game contests even cut lines were pretty high period this week.
Last edited by a moderator:
Fitz hurt me that night too. Funny I've been thinking this ride has to end soon yet when it did I was surprised.
I cashed in all my double and 50/50 this week with a score of 170.5. That same score wasnt enough to cash in the multi-entry ones. I was 0/5 with those. I am going to avoid the multi entry from now on.
Also, what what was the cash line for the 3x, 4x, and 5x cash games? I dont often play in those.
Also, what what was the cash line for the 3x, 4x, and 5x cash games? I dont often play in those.
