Draft Strategy at Pick 8 ? (1 Viewer)

[masterflor]

Hey everyone

so I've been reading this site for about a week now since I've found out about it and I finally decided to sign up and make my first thread. I am going into year 5 of our serious league between my friends and I. I have been given the ever interesting 8th spot in this 12 team non ppr regular ol' draft.

We start 1 QB, 2 WR. 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF..nothing really too exciting there.

I have been doing quite the # of mock drafts and have been trying to scope out what picks #1-7 seem to be leaning towards and from this, it appears that at # 8 these are the players I can be looking at:

Shaun Alexander ( although he might be gone at pick 5 or 6)

Brian Westbrook ( If he doesn't go at pick 7 he will be on the board)

Willie Parker ( if he doesn't go at pick 7 he will be on the board)

Travis Henry

Rudi Johnson

Reggie Bush

-- Basically, either Shaun, Westy, or FWP will be there and I will take the one that is.

Leading into RD 2, I've been leaning towards RB2 rather than big WR1 due to the fact that the WR combo that I have been getting in RD 3 and RD 4 ( usually something like Javon Walker and Andre Johnson) is definetly sufficient, and I'd rather not struggle to find a rb in the 3rd or 4th in my run and trend heavy league.

I think I am suffering from MJD man love as some of us are and am targetting him in the 2nd along with the likes of TJ and Portis.

Do you think a combo of westy/mjd be too risky fantasy wise? I know people like to avoid the safe combos ( 'oh rudi johnson and thomas jones enjoy 3rd place' mentality)

so is it better to have one safe rb and one high risk with reward one

lets get some thoughts for pick 8 since it has been neglected

on the side, thanks for all the knowledge ive gotten here so far, hope i can contribute

 

[Colin Dowling]

1. Welcome.

2. PPR?

 

[masterflor]

Thanks Colin

It is non ppr

I stated it above but didn't make it really clear for reading purposes my bad

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Leading into RD 2, I've been leaning towards RB2 rather than big WR1 due to the fact that the WR combo that I have been getting in RD 3 and RD 4 ( usually something like Javon Walker and Andre Johnson) is definetly sufficient, and I'd rather not struggle to find a rb in the 3rd or 4th in my run and trend heavy league.

In a non-ppr league, this is imperative. The RBs will fly off the board and if you don't get your #2 RB in the 2nd, you're going to play catch up for the remainder of the draft.I'd go Alexander/Portis and not look back.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Leading into RD 2, I've been leaning towards RB2 rather than big WR1 due to the fact that the WR combo that I have been getting in RD 3 and RD 4 ( usually something like Javon Walker and Andre Johnson) is definetly sufficient, and I'd rather not struggle to find a rb in the 3rd or 4th in my run and trend heavy league.

In a non-ppr league, this is imperative. The RBs will fly off the board and if you don't get your #2 RB in the 2nd, you're going to play catch up for the remainder of the draft.I'd go Alexander/Portis Henry or Parker / Benson and not look back.

Edited for accuracy.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Leading into RD 2, I've been leaning towards RB2 rather than big WR1 due to the fact that the WR combo that I have been getting in RD 3 and RD 4 ( usually something like Javon Walker and Andre Johnson) is definetly sufficient, and I'd rather not struggle to find a rb in the 3rd or 4th in my run and trend heavy league.

In a non-ppr league, this is imperative. The RBs will fly off the board and if you don't get your #2 RB in the 2nd, you're going to play catch up for the remainder of the draft.I'd go Alexander/Portis Henry or Parker / Benson and not look back.

Edited for accuracy.

I can maybe buy Henry > Alexander but I cannot buy Benson > Portis.

 

[masterflor]

Leading into RD 2, I've been leaning towards RB2 rather than big WR1 due to the fact that the WR combo that I have been getting in RD 3 and RD 4 ( usually something like Javon Walker and Andre Johnson) is definetly sufficient, and I'd rather not struggle to find a rb in the 3rd or 4th in my run and trend heavy league.

In a non-ppr league, this is imperative. The RBs will fly off the board and if you don't get your #2 RB in the 2nd, you're going to play catch up for the remainder of the draft.I'd go Alexander/Portis Henry or Parker / Benson and not look back.

Edited for accuracy.

I can maybe buy Henry > Alexander but I cannot buy Benson > Portis.

at this point the most realistic thing at least in my draft is going to bewestbrook or parker / mjd portis tj benson

and i would prefer

westy or parker/ mjd..then portis/tj

 

[Andy Dufresne]

at this point the most realistic thing at least in my draft is going to bewestbrook or parker / mjd portis tj bensonand i would preferwesty or parker/ mjd..then portis/tj

TJ = Thomas Jones?In a non-ppr, given those choices, I'd go Parker/Portis.But I don't get if you're projecting Portis to be a 1st or 2nd rounder.

 

[masterflor]

at this point the most realistic thing at least in my draft is going to bewestbrook or parker / mjd portis tj bensonand i would preferwesty or parker/ mjd..then portis/tj

TJ = Thomas Jones?In a non-ppr, given those choices, I'd go Parker/Portis.But I don't get if you're projecting Portis to be a 1st or 2nd rounder.

Yes TJ=Thomas JonesIm projecting Portis as a 2nd rounder t-jones, portis, mjd i am all expecting to be available when i pick in round 2 at this point and i see ur clear favorite is portis

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I prefer MJD to Portis in the 2nd, because I'm not convinced Portis can stay healthy. I prefer MJD by a wider margin in PPR than non-PPR, however.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

t-jones, portis, mjd i am all expecting to be available when i pick in round 2 at this point and i see ur clear favorite is portis

Yes. Portis is my clear favorite among he, Jones, and MJD.A combo of Parker/Portis would be a nice start to a non-ppr draft.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I prefer MJD to Portis in the 2nd, because I'm not convinced Portis can stay healthy. I prefer MJD by a wider margin in PPR than non-PPR, however.

Frog's hair difference between the two and there would be no faulting someone taking MJD over Portis.

 

[Sweet Love]

Welcome to the boards! Given that you only start two WRs, i would wait on them until at least round 3 given that you should be able to get great value after that time and at least secure two solid RBs...in fact if a top 15 RB somehow slipped to you in the third round, I would consider going RB-RB-RB.

 

[JimmyD]

t-jones, portis, mjd i am all expecting to be available when i pick in round 2 at this point and i see ur clear favorite is portis

Yes. Portis is my clear favorite among he, Jones, and MJD.A combo of Parker/Portis would be a nice start to a non-ppr draft.

I like the start and a pick up of Betts in the 7th makes it very solid. Use the 3rd round as your "Best available round", basically take whoever falls no matter position.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

t-jones, portis, mjd i am all expecting to be available when i pick in round 2 at this point and i see ur clear favorite is portis

Yes. Portis is my clear favorite among he, Jones, and MJD.A combo of Parker/Portis would be a nice start to a non-ppr draft.

I like the start and a pick up of Betts in the 7th makes it very solid. Use the 3rd round as your "Best available round", basically take whoever falls no matter position.

Normally, I follow the path of wait on a QB. But if I'm in a 6 point per pass TD league, this is the year I think of taking one of Bulger, Palmer, Brady, or Brees in the 3rd since there are WRs that can fill in nicely in rounds 4 & 5.

 

[GDogg]

t-jones, portis, mjd i am all expecting to be available when i pick in round 2 at this point and i see ur clear favorite is portis

Yes. Portis is my clear favorite among he, Jones, and MJD.A combo of Parker/Portis would be a nice start to a non-ppr draft.

I like the start and a pick up of Betts in the 7th makes it very solid. Use the 3rd round as your "Best available round", basically take whoever falls no matter position.

Normally, I follow the path of wait on a QB. But if I'm in a 6 point per pass TD league, this is the year I think of taking one of Bulger, Palmer, Brady, or Brees in the 3rd since there are WRs that can fill in nicely in rounds 4 & 5.

Why is this the year that you take one of those if you're in a 6 pt per TD league?

 

[LBH]

I would go Henry/MJD or T.Jones, and think youre right to grab a couple of fringe top 10 wrs in rds 3 and 4

The health concerns about Portis and the obligation I feel to take his insurance policy in the middle rds(a place where I can still get players I really like to have breakout years) makes me want to stay away from him

 

[Andy Dufresne]

t-jones, portis, mjd i am all expecting to be available when i pick in round 2 at this point and i see ur clear favorite is portis

Yes. Portis is my clear favorite among he, Jones, and MJD.A combo of Parker/Portis would be a nice start to a non-ppr draft.

I like the start and a pick up of Betts in the 7th makes it very solid. Use the 3rd round as your "Best available round", basically take whoever falls no matter position.

Normally, I follow the path of wait on a QB. But if I'm in a 6 point per pass TD league, this is the year I think of taking one of Bulger, Palmer, Brady, or Brees in the 3rd since there are WRs that can fill in nicely in rounds 4 & 5.

Why is this the year that you take one of those if you're in a 6 pt per TD league?

Because I think a) there's enough depth at the WR position that rounds 4-6 have plenty of good players and b) I think there's a considerable dropoff at the QB spot after the top 5. I didn't say it's a lock that I'd go QB in round three, only that I'd consider it. In leagues that penalize -2 or more for picks, I'd really lean toward Bulger in the 3rd because I think the ratio of 24/8 from last year will only be better this year. I think he'll approach 30/10.Edit: How do you like my math skills? The ratio of 24/8 is exactly the same as 30/10. So since I said it would be better, make it 31/10 .

 

[Dreamer]

Hey everyoneso I've been reading this site for about a week now since I've found out about it and I finally decided to sign up and make my first thread.on the side, thanks for all the knowledge ive gotten here so far, hope i can contribute

There's an excellent article on this in the pay section. If you haven't signed up already, you really should. The plethora of information provided is just ridiculous.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

t-jones, portis, mjd i am all expecting to be available when i pick in round 2 at this point and i see ur clear favorite is portis

Yes. Portis is my clear favorite among he, Jones, and MJD.A combo of Parker/Portis would be a nice start to a non-ppr draft.

I like the start and a pick up of Betts in the 7th makes it very solid. Use the 3rd round as your "Best available round", basically take whoever falls no matter position.

Normally, I follow the path of wait on a QB. But if I'm in a 6 point per pass TD league, this is the year I think of taking one of Bulger, Palmer, Brady, or Brees in the 3rd since there are WRs that can fill in nicely in rounds 4 & 5.

Why is this the year that you take one of those if you're in a 6 pt per TD league?

Because I think a) there's enough depth at the WR position that rounds 4-6 have plenty of good players and b) I think there's a considerable dropoff at the QB spot after the top 5. I didn't say it's a lock that I'd go QB in round three, only that I'd consider it. In leagues that penalize -2 or more for picks, I'd really lean toward Bulger in the 3rd because I think the ratio of 24/8 from last year will only be better this year. I think he'll approach 30/10.Edit: How do you like my math skills? The ratio of 24/8 is exactly the same as 30/10. So since I said it would be better, make it 31/10 .

One last thing on this line of thought - if at least three of the four QBs I mentioned are available in the 3rd, you're better off going WR at that point since at least one of those guys will be there in the 4th. That means I think you go RB-RB-WR-QB-WR.

 

[masterflor]

Andy,

with the RB RB WR QB system I havent actually tried that out because in the mock drafts, the teams have been pretty QB agressive and those top 5 are usually gone. I would really only go for QB there if I could get say Brees/Bulger and then be able to get WR@ like Coles, but that may not be possible.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Andy,with the RB RB WR QB system I havent actually tried that out because in the mock drafts, the teams have been pretty QB agressive and those top 5 are usually gone. I would really only go for QB there if I could get say Brees/Bulger and then be able to get WR@ like Coles, but that may not be possible.

If the top 5 are gone, then adjust your strategy accordingly - in that case I wouldn't go RB-RB-WR-QB. I'd likely take a WR if I'm at the top of round 4, a RB if I'm at the bottom.

 

[masterflor]

Andy,with the RB RB WR QB system I havent actually tried that out because in the mock drafts, the teams have been pretty QB agressive and those top 5 are usually gone. I would really only go for QB there if I could get say Brees/Bulger and then be able to get WR@ like Coles, but that may not be possible.

If the top 5 are gone, then adjust your strategy accordingly - in that case I wouldn't go RB-RB-WR-QB. I'd likely take a WR if I'm at the top of round 4, a RB if I'm at the bottom.

good idea, appreciate the advice

 

[masterflor]

any more opinions>?