Drafting Near The Turn (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

If your draft slot is at or near the turn, do you throw out convention and take guys you want regardless of ADP or do use still try to get someone in particular no matter what his ADP may be?

Better stated, would you rather take a guy you want a lot earlier than his ADP to have him rather than risk him getting passed over all the way around the board (say 20+ draft picks).

Essentially, you could be taking someone a round and a half earlier than his average draft slot.

What say you?

 

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

If your draft slot is at or near the turn, do you throw out convention and take guys you want regardless of ADP or do use still try to get someone in particular no matter what his ADP may be?

Better stated, would you rather take a guy you want a lot earlier than his ADP to have him rather than risk him getting passed over all the way around the board (say 20+ draft picks).

Essentially, you could be taking someone a round and a half earlier than his average draft slot.

What say you?

Balance is best.I will not overreach for a player and draft him 10 slots above his ADP simply because he might not be there whe my turn comes next. But if he is close and I am high in him, I would do it because there is nothing worse than missing on a player that you really like and then watch him dominate. Example for me was LaMont Jordan when he was first traded I waiting on him and did not pick him early enough be the pick before my next selection he was gone.

Chester Taylor could be the next one.

 

[-OZ-]

It depends. Can I trade down?

Assuming, for the sake of discussion, that I can't, I'll take the player I perceive to be the best selection, regardless. But then, I do that regardless of where I draft. Sometimes that means taking a player 20 slots before his ADP, but if I think he'll outperform, and makes more sense for my team than the other 19 guys, so be it.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Yes, I often take players well before their ADP when drafting at or near the turn.

 

[WhoDat]

Yes, I often take players well before their ADP when drafting at or near the turn.

Me too.

 

[coolnerd]

I will draft people I want early when I am on the turn, but I have found that this is normally counterbalanced well because it seems more times than not I get another player at value in regards to ADP with the other pick.

 

[Capt Hook]

I put yes, but this is really a two part question just like the answer is

1) For your first of the picks, you should be taking the BEST player available (or later in the draft, the best player available for your team)

2) With your second pick you need to look at how many picks will be made before it is your turn again (so in a 12 team league if you are Team 11, there will be 20 players made before you pick again) and look at which players are in that group and then choose the best player/best player for your team (not always the same player).

 

[Pimpin Ain't Easy]

Thats the thing I like the most about the turn. It forces you to grab the guys you want, or lose out. Especially in Dynasty drafts.

When drafting somewhere in the middle, you gamble, and hope your guy will be there in 10-12 more picks. Sometime you win, sometimes you don't, and end up mad at yourself for waiting.

Bad news about the turn is the long waits in between picks, and no real chance at grabbing any value that might be slipping.

The good news is I often end up with the guys I want, but not all the time.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

"Sometimes if I really want a particular guy."

If I have a guy that I think will outperform his ADP such that I'm really not taking much of a reach, I'll do it.

Moreover, if I feel that the caliber of player that will remain at the position of interest will be a big drop (2-3 tiers), then I grab him.

Otherwise, I draft best for my team and don't worry so much about who will be gone by my next pick(s).

 

[-OZ-]

I put yes, but this is really a two part question just like the answer is

1) For your first of the picks, you should be taking the BEST player available (or later in the draft, the best player available for your team)

2) With your second pick you need to look at how many picks will be made before it is your turn again (so in a 12 team league if you are Team 11, there will be 20 players made before you pick again) and look at which players are in that group and then choose the best player/best player for your team (not always the same player).

I don't see why there's a difference between the two picks.

 

[There it is]

Yes. Esp if I targeted that player a feel he wount it back to me.

Also I use my own projections and try to draft them slightly before their adp because I actually project them higher anyway.

 

[SSOG]

Not taking a player who you think is the best available just because he has a low ADP is stupid. Basically, you're disregarding your rankings in favor of the average rankings of everyone else. Why on earth would you use the average rankings if your goal is to be an above-average team?

If the ADP says you can wait and get him without troubles, that's one thing- hold off and get him later. However, if you refrain from drafting a player just because of his ADP, then why on earth did you even bother doing your own projections in the first place? You just wasted a ton of time.

 

[JimmyD]

Drafting from the bookends removes just about all of the "Who is going to slide to the next round" game from your draft. Because of that the ADP shouldn't be taken as the bible. If I have pick 2.12/3.01 and then wait until 4.12 to pick and some has a ADP of 4.02, then you better decide if he's good enough to take at 3.01.

If you have 2 picks and then watch as 22 players get taken you really don't get the chance to read the other owners in front of you. Take the two best players that you need and don't worry about it. If it seems early, so what, it beats watching that player have the season you expected and kick yourself for not drafting him because his ADP was 14 slots lower.

That being said if you have targeted a surefire SOD's and his ADP is say rd14 and you are in round 8 and your draftsheet says that he is next best WR, I'd not hurry the pick, but I wouldn't wait till rd 14 either.

 

[CalBear]

I first look at VBD, not ADP. If I'm drafting at 4.01, and by my VBD totals I'm looking at my #1 player as someone who has ADP of 5.06--well, that's why I do my own projections. It would be silly to project someone to perform as the 37th best player by VBD and refuse to take him with the 37th pick, just because other people don't project him that high.

I might fool around with it if I'm in a bracket slot; like if I'm choosing at 1.11, I might skip someone I have rated as the #11 or higher player if I think he might last to 2.02. That decision would be partly based on ADP. But I wouldn't do that with the 2.02 pick; there are too many picks before your next shot to really have any confidence that your guy will be there.

 

[a_f13nd]

In running a series of mocks out of the 14 slot in a 14-team draft with DD, I am still trying to figure this all out. (1Q,2R,3W,1T,1K,1D, redraft, non-ppr, Q=6/TD)

I noticed that it keeps telling me to pick Gates and Westbrook, which seems like a decent combo. Gates ADP is only a few spots behind 15, and he's gone by the end of round 2 for sure. However, it's somewhat of a scary prospect to leave WRs such as Chad Johnson, T.O. and Holt on the board when we start 3 WRs. I quite like Holt, though, over Johnson, and might take him despite the ADP differential.

I tried to go with Westbrook/Johnson and my team looked much better.

I also tried Westbrook/Davis, because I didn't want to go 26 picks without an RB2. My team came out pretty solid, but with no clear studs.

I am thinking that if I do end up going WR/RB that I'll do a RB Relay and pick up Addai and Rhodes (or better, Dayne/Bell). I think to secure the Denver or Indy back as an RB2 that I'd jump ADP quite a bit. Though the ADP and value of taking the backup is low, I think their combined value is a good deal higher than either individual value. And having a bookend pick would allow me to lock it up with no worries.

Also thinking of taking advantage of the back-to-back by grabbing two QBs at some point. I have to believe that a few people near the turn will neglect a QB figuring I won't take 2 in a row. Running it with the software came up that way. My league tends to have a run in Round 6, so I'll probably be taking Favre, Roethlisberger calibre guys.