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Drafting players coming off of significant injury: in or out? (1 Viewer)

Will you draft players who are already hurt?

  • Heck yes - league-winning upside if you get lucky!

    Votes: 13 39.4%

  • Heck no - too many injuries come up: why tempt fate?

    Votes: 8 24.2%

  • It hecka depends - I’ll explain below.

    Votes: 12 36.4%
  • Total voters
    33
Hot Sauce Guy

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Just wondering how folks feel about this. I have been somewhat brave about doing this the last few seasons, and it’s burned me every time. 

I’m very much on the fence about guys like Sutton, Barkley and others. Obvious upside plays but just so much draft equity to spend on players who are already hurt. Even guys like Golladay, who had a “minor 2 week injury” 23 days ago. 

Enough guys get hurt during the season. I’m leaning heavily towards drafting all healthy players.

 
*please note: if you checked option 3 and did not explain below, karma will come back and injure your healthiest player. Sorry, I don’t make the rules. 
:)  

 
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As with all things:  It comes down to price and value.  

I'm trying to become more risk adverse.  I've gambled on a lot of these guys and paid the cost for it a number of times.  But cost/value still comes into the scale.

If 100%, I wonder how high Saquon would be going right now.  I'm picking 9th in a money league and with all the other big time backs already off the board--it's honestly hard to say no at that point.  I'll keep an eye on his health going into the draft and may decide to pivot if he's not where he needs to be.  

A guy like Sutton--there are a lot of guys going around him that I like similar to him.  I'll probably have zero shares this year.  And I had a bunch last year.  

 
Obviously it depends on a lot of factors. With Barkley, it comes down almost entirely to ADP. If he's in the top half of the first, way too much risk. If he slips to the second, definite value. Late first ... that's where I'm still deciding.

I do still somewhat believe in the "give a guy a year after the ACL" theory, but again, it comes down to risk. No way I'm drafting Sutton at a range where I have to start him. But on my bench he might be a good lottery ticket. I'm really hoping people just give up on Michael Thomas, too. As a bench stash, he's an amazing value (and in an IR league he's a no-brainer).

Golladay is less about last year's injury and more about soft-tissue injuries in camp, which always scare the crap out of me.

 
Recovering from an injury the previous year, sure I am generally ok. Someone currently hurt, I am usually out unless the value just starts to be too much. I hate having to clog the roster. If there is an IR spot, that makes it more tolerable. I know I said don't take Michael Thomas this year but I did take him in a draft. I got him at pick 116. Also, in a 3 WR and a flex PPR league with an IR spot where I already had  drafted 5 WRs so I felt I could afford to take Thomas and sit on him. 

 
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jm192 said:
If 100%, I wonder how high Saquon would be going right now.  I'm picking 9th in a money league and with all the other big time backs already off the board--it's honestly hard to say no at that point.  I'll keep an eye on his health going into the draft and may decide to pivot if he's not where he needs to be.  
Click to expand...


I’ve seen video of him cutting. He looks fantastic. My concern is whether the Giants are being coy, or if they’ll really be working him back slowly.

If I knew he wouldn’t be on a pitch count, he’d be a contender for 1.01 next to CMC. He has that upside. Theoretically. 

but a miss at 1.08 or whatever can be devastating for one’s season. 

 
I did put option 3 just now.  Please no smiting.

It does depend on situations, players involved...timing of it...setbacks or not during rehab.  And sort of location of injury.

Coming back from major ankle issues a year ago...vs. ACL with normal time table of return?  Achilles issue?  I think I would treat all differently...as well as the player's individual health history....team/offense...what changed since their injury as far as competition or whatever.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Do you draft Saquan Barkley at his current ADP?
Click to expand...
Yes. I could argue as high as #4 overall for Barkley, he's a toss up with Henry for me. I'd take him over Kamara or Zeke.

Of course, he'll likely never end up with me, as I have Kelce #2 overall. Maybe if I get a pick on the turn and Kelce falls a bit, because nobody else wants to be the guy who went TE in round 1.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Clearly should be a case by case basis and would also info further analysis if said player comes at a discount or not.
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Seems like they all come with a discount. 

and of course it’s subjective - but I’m speaking in general terms with this topic/question. 

Some managers are more comfortable taking these kinds of risks. Some players are more discounted than others. Sutton seems to be going several rounds after he “should” be, while for guys like Elliott & Barkley it’s only a few picks. 

I’ve seen Elliott’s draft position creep up to the 5 range in live mocks (take with a grain of salt, but it’s been consistent), and that’s with Kelce or Adams going before him, so 4th RB off the board. He was taken 3rd last year in most leagues. Barkley going 6-9 pretty often & only occasionally makes the turn.

Seems like every year, the more fantasy writers talk up a bounce back, the more ADP is driven up for risky assets. Players talk themselves into it. “If I knew Barkley wouldn’t be on a pitch count he’d be 1.01 & has that upside!”

yeah; ok. He he also has downside of playing 10 carries in week 1 & losing you a game. Maybe he isn’t ramped up until week 4, ~1/5 of one’s fantasy season. 

Personally I’m a bit risk averse in the 1-2 rounds. I want rock solid production from players I know are healthy.

But like others, if they fall far enough to be a value I’d take a chance. Picking 1.08 & Barkley makes it to 2.05? I’d probably bet on that. Because I feel I could draft a roster that would be able to survive a 3-4 week absence. It’s risky as heck, but far less risky than taking Barkley at 1.08

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Do you draft Saquan Barkley at his current ADP?
Click to expand...
So, had my main draft last night, and got Barkley in round 2, which I am very happy with that value. Also took Dak Prescott and Kenny Golladay(at an extreme value as my WR5) so I guess I'm putting my money where my mouth is when it comes to players coming off season ending injury. 

 
travdogg said:
So, had my main draft last night, and got Barkley in round 2, which I am very happy with that value. Also took Dak Prescott and Kenny Golladay(at an extreme value as my WR5) so I guess I'm putting my money where my mouth is when it comes to players coming off season ending injury. 
Click to expand...
This is where I am. 

My money league draft is tonight. I am #9 in a 10-team snake draft. I will not take him at 1.09 but if he is there at 2.02, I will almost have to take him. 

I am hoping someone takes him prior to my 1.09. 

 
Spike said:
This is where I am. 

My money league draft is tonight. I am #9 in a 10-team snake draft. I will not take him at 1.09 but if he is there at 2.02, I will almost have to take him. 

I am hoping someone takes him prior to my 1.09. 
Click to expand...


I got him at 2.03 in a 10 teamer this past weekend. Wasn't going out of my way to get him but the upside was too much to pass up at that point. 

 
I'm perfectly fine drafting Saquon Barkley as long as it's pick 11 or later. I'm also targeting Michael Thomas in the 9th-10th round in 14-teamers since my league has a dedicated IR spot.

 
The higher the price the less I take the risk.  Early in drafts I want safe, high floor, players that have potential for ceiling.  As the draft goes on I am more likely to take a chance on a player coming off an injury if the upside is there.  

There is no one size fits all for this type of thing.  

 
Gally said:
The higher the price the less I take the risk.  Early in drafts I want safe, high floor, players that have potential for ceiling.  As the draft goes on I am more likely to take a chance on a player coming off an injury if the upside is there.  

There is no one size fits all for this type of thing.  
Click to expand...
This aligns with how I tend to see it. Michael Thomas might have "league winning upside" as a later round pick but Barkley probably doesn't. The upside is like having two firsts. The downside is potentially like not getting a second round pick at all.

 
The Frankman said:
I'm also targeting Michael Thomas in the 9th-10th round in 14-teamers since my league has a dedicated IR spot.
Click to expand...


Went tail end of the 8th in my 12x18 redraft (we have two IR spots.) I was like "all yours bro", couldn't imagine taking him as my first bench player.

 
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