Travdogg's position rankings as of June 12th (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

I have omitted DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook since they currently don't have teams, however I am including Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs who aren't currently signed. Anyway these are my ranking as of right now.

QB:
1. Jalen Hurts, was the QB1 PPG last year, has the best weapons of the top guys, and the tush push wasn't outlawed. If the Eagles defense takes a step back adjusting to a bunch of new starters, Hurts volume could increase, leading to a 4000+ passing season.

2. Josh Allen, fun fact, Allen's last 3 fantasy seasons were better than any non-2013 Peyton Manning season. That's how valuable running is at QB, and Allen has been a great investment each of those seasons. Supporting cast is the only thing putting Hurts above Allen for me.

3. Patrick Mahomes, kind of the new Manning, where his floor is higher than anyone else, and I trust him more, but he simply doesn't have the same ceiling. He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

4. Justin Fields, was QB2 PPG once the Bears decided to let him run. Rushing likely comes down slightly, but passing should go way up, after having chunks of last year with his top WRs being Dante Pettis and a guy named Equanimous. Fields was a better passer than his stats indicated, he just had little help.

5. Lamar Jackson, was QB6 PPG last year, and that was with DeMarcus Robinson as his top WR. He and Fields are close to a tossup to me, but I'll take a bit of a shot on the ascending player.

6. Joe Burrow, QB8 and QB4 the last 2 seasons, the Bengals have fully made the turn into a pass first offense. Burrow ran for 5 TDs last year, which seems a little fluky to me, but Burrow is like a discount Mahomes where he's more a floor than ceiling option.

7. Trevor Lawrence, QB11 PPG last year, added Calvin Ridley, and is ascending. That said, I wasn't as impressed with him as others seem to be. I think he's a bit boom/bust, without the rushing of Fields/Jackson to justify a higher ranking. I think he's a better fantasy QB than NFL QB at the moment. The Jags starting passing more as the season went on though, and that feels like a trend to me.

8. Justin Herbert, another victim of injuries last year. Too many games counting on Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter. Herbert is a season removed from a top-3 finish, and should have better injury luck this season. Kellen Moore should also help, as Dallas lead the league in plays run 3 of his 4 seasons calling plays.

9. Deshaun Watson, I'm leaning more towards rust than no longer great, but I'm not 100% sure. From 2018-2020 Watson was a top-5 QB every season. Of course that was 3+ years ago, and while the Browns have added weapons to the passing game, its hard to see them being too pass heavy. Watson's mobility looked as good as ever, as a guy who gets 400+ yards a season.

10. Anthony Richardson, while I don't think Lamar/Fields are fair expectations for his rushing, I think Hurts/Allen are. Doesn't need to be a good passer to end up top-10, but has more upside than he's given credit for.

11. Daniel Jones, its funny to me that Jones had a career passing season, and it was still pretty meh, just more evidence about how valuable QB rushes are. Adding Waller helps, and maybe Hyatt or someone steps up at WR, but Jones is my highest rated guy who I think doesn't have a top-5 ceiling.

12. Geno Smith, in many ways, he's not that different than Lawrence. The difference is probably me being too swayed by the preceding decade of Geno. As good of weapons as anyone, its also possible Seattle passes more often after adding JSN in round 1.

13. Dak Prescott, swapping out Schultz for Cooks is probably an upgrade for the offense, but losing Kellen Moore could hurt. I don't buy the idea they will run more often, that's just classic offseason McCarthy speak. Dak rebounded a bit as a runner last season, another year removed from his ankle injury, but the ceiling is limited.

14. Aaron Rodgers, might be a bold call, but I'm not sure NY is a better offense than GB talent wise. Factor in a much better defense, and while I think Rodgers's efficiency should improve, just by not having a broken hand, his overall numbers may not.

15. Tua Tagovailoa, I'm usually among the more forgiving people when it comes to injuries. The exceptions are Achilles, neck/spine, and multiple concussions. If I were 100% sure Tua plays 17 games, I'd argue him alongside Lawrence/Herbert, but he's a guy I'm downgrading due to health.

 

[travdogg]

RB:
1. Christian McCaffrey, its kind of funny, I'm not as high on him as I was a year ago, but nobody has passed him at RB. I had him #1 overall last year, but I'd take Jefferson/Chase over him this year. The concern is Eli Mitchell. CMC had 8 fewer PPG in games Mitchell played. CMC also peaked when Deebo was out too. The floor is still higher than anyone, but the true ceiling requires injury to others.

2. Austin Ekeler, catches will likely come down a bit with Lombardi gone, but he's still gonna be more involved than what the Dallas RBs were. Ekeler has led the NFL in TDs over the last 2 seasons, and there is no reason to expect that to change.

3. Tony Pollard, I don't subscribe to the idea that he's some limited touch player just because he hasn't been fully featured yet. He's 210 pounds and has zero holes in his game (he's greatly improved his blocking) on a very good offense, with little competition. I think 300 touches is a fair over/under, and there is a #1 overall ceiling here.

4. Bijan Robinson, I disagree that he's the best RB prospect since Saquon, he's better than Barkley was. He's going to a run heavy team with a HC who fed Derrick Henry when he was a playcaller. I do worry about his pass catching, not his ability, but his usage. If you take any snaps away that's where it makes the most sense, since you have a guy like Patterson behind him. I would expect under 50 catches.

5. Jonathan Taylor, I'm expecting him to be very boom/bust this season, which might just be the Colts offense in general. That said, its been proven that RBs opposite mobile QBs have efficiency spikes. Taylor should average over 5 YPC, but likely loses his reception ceiling. Basically, Taylor looks like a Henry-like prospect to me, but with less age/miles.

6. Saquon Barkley, like CMC, I was as high as anyone on him last season and feel like I'm a little lower this year. I have talent concerns with Barkley, I think it's safe to say the 2018-2019 guy is gone. He goes down on 1st contact way too often, and the 90-catch upside is never coming back. That said, Barkley is a great candidate to lead the NFL in touches, and that carries his value. He's probably a guy I'm hoping someone else drafts.

7. Rhamondre Stevenson, for whatever reason there seems to be a NE stink on him. This is a guy with zero holes in his game, who is likely the centerpiece of his offense. I kinda want to have him even higher than this, Stevenson's only real issue is the offense still stinks even with Patricia gone, in which case the TDs fall short of everyone around him.

8. Breece Hall, like I said earlier, I'm pretty forgiving of injuries. Frankly, I think I'm actually punishing him here, if not for the ACL, I'd have him up by Bijan. I'm expecting Hall to be playing week 1, though maybe eased in with 10-15 touch workloads at first. I think he's a little bit like Taylor, where him could be more boom/bust than others, but the ceiling is top-3.

9. Josh Jacobs, I'm risking getting burned again having him this low, but I just have serious issues with the Raiders offense. I truly don't understand what they are even trying to do, unless its finish last in their division, in which case, they are probably nailing it. Jacobs wasn't some fluke, he's always been a top-10 RB in my opinion, he just finally stayed healthy, and stopped getting pulled for scrubs. I really like this 7-13 range and will likely pass on RB in round 1.

10. Derrick Henry, the Titans are a bit of a mystery as they haven't seemed to decide whether they are rebuilding or not. Considering 9 wins won the division, is anyone truly rebuilding? Henry still looked like arguably the best runner in the NFL last season, considering he got almost zero help from his supporting cast. I do wonder if Tyjae Spears takes some of the passing work that Henry finally got a year ago, and approaching 2,000 career touches is a slight red flag, but I'd still be ok with Henry as my RB1.

11. Nick Chubb, another reason why this area is so strong. Chubb has 3 top-12 finishes in the last 4 years and continues to average 5+ YPC every year. There is very little separation between him and Stevenson, but I think he's less likely to have receiving work, and I do wonder if the Browns get a little more pass heavy, though I doubt they fully go that way, it could be a lot more than under Mayfield/Brissett.

12. Aaron Jones, long a favorite of mine, I've always felt like he is on the CMC/Ekeler talent level and is probably a better runner than either. Unfortunately, Jones has been pigeonholed into being more of a RBBC guy than his talent says he should be, and that likely continues to be the case, however, its possible/likely the Packers look to protect Jordan Love and that leads to more rushing, and more dumpoffs/screens. Jones has a solid floor, but his upside is understated.

13. Jahmyr Gibbs, I think people are being way too quick to just slot him and Montgomery into the Swift/Williams roles, and I just don't see it. I don't think those were even roles that existed, it was just Detroit losing all faith in Swift. Gibbs is starting in a spot higher than Swift ever was in my eyes, as you don't take a RB at #12 without high expectations. There is an Ekeler-like ceiling here, and Gibbs just leaving Montgomery in the dust is on the table. I think Swift-like production is probably close to Gibbs floor.

14. Najee Harris, big dropoff from 13 to 14. Najee to me is a poor man's Barkley, in the sense that his workload is his biggest asset, but unlike Barkley, he's got a guy behind him who could really push for more work. I sort of wonder if Jaylen Warren could be the Tony Pollard to Najee's Zeke, where he's the better RB, but the Steelers will fight it forever? Najee is due for some positive TD regression, as he's been very unlucky with TDs. The Steelers are likely to protect Pickett, so the volume should remain high, and maybe the OL upgrades help, but he's another guy I hope somebody else takes.

15. Travis Etienne, most have him higher, but I have some major concerns that he's more along the Miles Sanders lines than a truly great player. I think his receiving ability is massively overstated, he's not very good at it, and could be pulled on 3rd downs, he's also a terrible short yardage runner, and I fully expect him to be pulled at the GL. Etienne is an exceptional open field runner, so he's in zero danger of losing the starting job, but I think he's a guy who is destined to finish in this area for years to come, unless he spikes with a lot of long TD runs, which I don't want to count on, he's incredibly similar to...

 

[travdogg]

16. Kenneth Walker, who has all the same problems as Etienne (though I think Walker is even more explosive) but even bigger workload concerns as Zach Charbonnet is a bigger threat than Tank Bigsby and co.

17. Miles Sanders, the OG of explosive guys I just don't feel good about. I personally think the Panthers are being really underrated, I think they win the South, but Sanders is likely to be pulled on 3rd downs, despite what the coaches say, they'll figure out 2019 was a mirage soon enough, but I do think he can maintain the GL job here, as there is no way Bryce Young is getting those tush push plays Hurts did. I don't love this range of RBs and would ideally start WR-RB-RB.

18. JK Dobbins, another in the line of good runners, who likely don't do much in the passing game, Dobbins benefits from Lamar's presence, but also has a quality Rb behind him, and has had reoccurring knee issues. His path to exceeding expectations would be a huge TD spike, which could happen, but I hate to bet on that.

19. Joe Mixon, I could argue him 14th pretty easily. But I've never really been a huge fan. When people are saying he looked like he lost a step, I'm not sure he really ever had it to begin with. He's always been a volume/TD guy, he didn't look much different in 2022 than 2021 in my opinion, he just didn't have the TDs. Those TDs could come back, and Mixon as a pass catcher looked better than ever, so he's got that going for him. His biggest competition is gone, but clearly, I'm not banking too much on him. He's probably my toughest RB to rank, and a possible suspension exists as well.

20. Alexander Mattison, fully agree with the Vikings move to save money at RB, and I'm not a Cook fan at all, that said, I don't see anything special about Mattison either. I expect someone (McBride? FA?) takes more work from him than he was taking from Cook. It does seem like the RB position isn't a big part of what O'Connell wants to do in the passing game, which hurts the ceiling here.

21. D'Andre Swift, I fully acknowledge this could be WAY too low. A change of scenery and general offensive upgrade could be all that Swift needs (that and better health) to take a huge leap forward. Its also possible that Swift continues to play the same role he did in Detroit, only with a team that throws less to its RBs and uses its QB in GL work. Still, Swift is a guy I do like to take a swing on in this area. There is a potential ceiling where he's this year's Josh Jacobs and stays healthy while running away with the job.

22. Dameon Pierce, the Texans should be improved with an actual plan for the first time since 2020. I compared Pierce to Chris Carson coming out, and he certainly looked the part as a rookie, unfortunately right down to ending the season on IR. Pierce is an excellent tackle breaker with underrated pass catching chops. That said, I think Devin Singletary is a lot better than his competition last season. Pierce had 18+ touches in 9 of his 13 games last season, and I think that workload gets scaled back enough to prevent too high of a ceiling.

23. Rachaad White, this might sound weird, but I think White is playing the wrong position. I think he's a slot WR who happens to be playing RB. He's not a good runner at all, but he is a very good pass catcher. He projects as a 3-down RB, but I worry this is too high for him. His competition isn't strong, but neither is he. 60 catches is very doable, but so is losing much of the early down work to guys the level of Chase Edmonds, Keyshawn Vaughn, or Sean Tucker. I want to have him lower, but not he's basically the last potential 3-down RB who exists.

24. Cam Akers, needs leads and TDs to pan out, and the Rams offense likely aren't producing many of those. I think the 3rd down job goes elsewhere (Kyren Williams? Zach Evans?) and I think chasing his late season breakout is fool's gold.

25. James Cook, he's a guy I want to put higher, but the floor is basically non-existent. I think the Bills would be thrilled if he left Harris/Murray/Hines in the dust, but its also possible Cook's role isn't all that different than last year. Cook was impressive whenever he got on the field last season, but he never really even threatened Singletary who is the definition of average. There is a potential ceiling where Cook takes 50%+ of the rushing work and plays a huge role in the passing game as there really isn't anyone entrenched after Diggs.

26. Devon Achane, pretty much everything I said about Cook applies to Achane, with the caveat that Miami is probably more likely to want to protect their QB. I'm not worried about Achane's size at all, I mean, sure he's never gonna be a 300 carry RB, but 200 is doable, as is 50 catches. He probably won't hit that as Mostert and Wilson are both solid runners (Mostert is clearly better) but both have had trouble staying on the field.

27. Javonte Williams, I'm not ruling out week 1, but I'm hedging my bets. Williams has looked like a star before he got hurt, I was much more impressed with him than his draft mates Najee or Etienne, but Payton likes to rotate in general, and Perine is a very good receiving RB.

28. Alvin Kamara, I'm suspension hedging here, he could easily be 10 spots higher if he's cleared. But there are some other red flags too. I think he's lost a step or 2 as a tackle breaker, and explosive runner. I think there could be a bit of a 3-man RBBC on early downs in NO. Kamara should easily retain all the pass catching work, he's still elite there, but there is some concern that he's a WAY more expensive McKinnon at this point. Another guy someone else will assuredly like more than me.

29. David Montgomery, I just think he's a mediocre RB. He's a good tackle breaker, and he's ok in the passing game, but he's one of the slowest RBs in the NFL and it shows a lot. He'll take a clear backset to Gibbs in the passing game, and its possible he gets less than half of the rushing work and the GL job is just whoever is on the field. I think people chasing 2022 Jamaal numbers are going to be very let down, but if Gibbs goes down, there is nothing stopping Montgomery from being a borderline RB1.

30. Rashaad Penny, here's the guy who could be this year's Jamaal Williams in my opinion, maybe not so much in the TD's but in the greatly exceeding expectations kinda way. Penny has always been an excellent rusher when healthy. If Swift can't stay health, or gets in the doghouse, there is nothing (other than maybe his own health) stopping Penny from doing everything Miles Sanders did a year ago.

 

[travdogg]

WR:
1. Justin Jefferson, off to as good a 3-year start as any WR ever, there is no reason to expect a slowdown. It's likely the Vikings pass less this season, as the defense has nowhere to go but up, but that'll come out of other guys, not Jefferson. I think he's the no-brainer #1 overall pick, honestly, I have trouble seeing a case for anyone else.

2. Ja'Marr Chase, I think the dropoff from 1-2 is bigger than the dropoff from 2-9, but I still have Chase #2 overall if that makes sense, that's just how much I like Jefferson. Chase is a little interesting because both he and Tee Higgins have decent sample sizes without the other. I'll get to that more in the Higgins section, but Chase was the clear #1 overall WR when Higgins was banged up averaging almost 2 more PPG than Jefferson did. Its when everyone is healthy, that Chase's ceilign takes a small hit.

3. Cooper Kupp, Kupp was the WR1 when he got hurt last year, and nothing about Kupp himself suggests that he can't be that again. However, the Rams are in very rough shape, and Stafford is a huge question mark after neck/concussions ended his season. I'm willing to take the 1st round plunge on Kupp, but I'm a ceiling shooter, and that risk might not be for everyone.

4. Tyreek Hill, basically Ja'Marr Chase with a less stable QB situation. If Tua plays all year, Hill is probably too low. 2 interesting stats about Hill, his snap % and his TD % were both well below career norms last year, meaning there is still some meat on the bone so to speak.

5. Stefon Diggs, safer than Kupp or Hill, but less upside than either. Diggs has finished between 3rd and 7th in all 3 seasons in Buffalo, and there is no reason to expect anything different.

6. Davante Adams, arguably the best WR in the league, he's likely downgrading at QB for the 2nd straight season, although he had one of his better games with Stidham last year, so he's a little QB proof. He's shown no reason to think he'll decline just because he's 30 now.

7. AJ Brown, he'd always had a 2022 season in him talent wise, he just finally got a chance (and stayed on the field) to prove it. The only thing keeping him this low, is unlike everyone above him, he doesn't have the huge target advantage on his team. If Smith goes down or the Eagles get more pass heavy, Brown will exceed this ranking.

8. CeeDee Lamb, I can see an argument for Lamb higher, but I have mild concerns about Kellen Moore leaving. Lamb got schemed into coverage by LBs or Safeties more than any other top WR in the NFL. Its possible Cooks runs off Safeties and Lamb continues working the middle while potentially picking up some of Dalton Schultz looks, but its also possible Dallas takes more downfield shots with Cooks and a healthier Gallup. I was all-in on Lamb a year ago, at WR5, I doubt I'll be getting him this year.

9. Amon-Ra St. Brown, one of my favorite players to watch. There might not be a harder worker in the NFL. He's basically the new Hines Ward in my eyes. His 2022 was also better than his numbers showed, as he basically didn't play in 2 games he was active for, so essentially, he played 14 games. He wasn't really all that different than Lamb, and his target competition is a lot less established, of course, so is his QB.

10. Garrett Wilson, a slight dropoff from 9-10. Wilson's ceiling is through the roof if he can take a Davante Adams like role for Rodgers, I just think that's unlikely. I see the Jets sticking to the formula of winning by protecting the ball and playing defense. Rodgers gives a second option for when that fails that they didn't have, but I don't think NY suddenly becomes KC, or even 2020 GB. I think Wilson will be very boom/bust with top-3 upside in any given week, but a lot of 5-65 games mixed in.

11. Chris Olave, speaking of guys with Davante Adams comps in people's minds. Olave now gets to be the undisputed #1 for Derek Carr. Fun stat, in 2022 Olave and Adams were the only players to see a 25% target share and 40% of the air yards. Olave has a high ceiling. I comped him to Calvin Ridley coming out, and while he looked the part there, I think Olave is even better. My only concerns are the Saints being a poorly run offense, and Carr not really being much better than Dalton.

12. Jaylen Waddle, being that Waddle has finished in the top12 each of his 1st 2 seasons, it'd be almost silly to rank him lower. That said, it's hard to rank him higher either, as Hill is the clear #1. Interestingly Waddle was basically the opposite of what he was in 2021, where he was a PPR dynamo, vs a big play machine in 2022. If something happened to Tyreek, I wonder what Waddle would look like?

13. DeVonta Smith, was WR9 overall last year, though that was because he stayed healthy, he was WR14 PPG. He and Waddle are very similar, but Smith has more target competition as Waddle doesn't have a TE to deal with as well.

14. DK Metcalf, I don't think the JSN pick really changes anything for Metcalf, they won't see the same type of targets. DK has been WR14 and WR15 the last 2 years, under 2 different QB's, and I don't see that changing. One note, is Metcalf had a flukishly low TD total last year. Only 6 after 10 and 12 the prior 2 seasons, and even 7 as a rookie. There's a part of me that thinks he's still an ascendent player.

15. Christian Watson, he's not going to average a TD every 9 targets again, but man, there is still so much to like here. Clear cut #1, wins both deep and with RAC, is on a mediocre team, that will try to protect the QB, but will be forced to pass. As long as Love isn't a disaster (he doesn't have to be good, just not Zach Wilson or Marcus Mariota) Watson should be a solid WR2 with upside. I'll admit I missed on this guy, I thought he was just an MVS clone, but he's a lot closer to a Metcalf type.

16. Tee Higgins, just looks like a #2 to me. A really good one, but even when Chase was out, Higgins didn't really blow up, he was just a little bit better. I wonder if he's more of a DJ Moore in a better offense level player, and I think he's a guy I'm gonna be lower on than most. I'm tempted to move him lower, but I just trust Joe Burrow so much more than the QBs of the next few names.

17. Calvin Ridley, very little separates the nest few names (and Higgins) Ridley's last full season had a WR6 finish, but was also 3 years ago. He's still only 28 and brings a vertical element I don't think the other WRs in Jacksonville bring, which I think gives him the higher ceiling than Kirk. I thought I'd be a little lower or Ridley, but sitting down and running some numbers, I'm higher than I expected.

18. Amari Cooper, very similar to Ridley where I don't think he's an elite talent, but he's clearly a good one. Cooper tends to finish around WR15 every year, with last year's top-10 season being a slight outlier. I have mild concern that Watson is more of a downfield passer, and that's not totally where Cooper wins, but I am confident they can make it work. I'm not totally buying the Elijah Moore hype, and think Moore will be the #3 pass catcher in Cleveland.

19. Deebo Samuel, 2021 sure looks like an obvious outlier season. Deebo has 26 career TDs and 14 came that season. The interesting thing to me, is that was really the entire difference for him. His targets and rushes stayed pretty much the same, just less 9 fewer TDs, fewer big plays, and 3 fewer games played. He's another guy I want to be lower on, but TD variance can swing a lot of different ways.

20. DJ Moore, is likely going to be very boom/bust in Chicago, but its honestly an upgrade in situation, even if Fields doesn't improve as a passer. He's tough to get too excited about, as the Bears aren't about to become a pass 1st team, and its not like Moore was struggling for targets in Carolina. Truth be told, as a Bears fan, I might have preferred that 2025 1st over Moore in the #1 pick trade. Moore is a good WR, but he might just be that.

 

[travdogg]

21. Keenan Allen, I kinda want to move him up. If Kellen Moore uses him the way he used Lamb and gets him matched up with LBs and Safeties, Allen could still have a top-12 season in him. Of course, he's also 31, and his team has a bunch of other options to go to.

22. Hollywood Brown, was a top-10 WR the first 6 weeks when Hopkins was suspended. I do think his role (and really the entire offense) could change drastically with Kingsbury gone, so Brown's catches could come down, but that might be balanced out by more big plays. I also think Murray is a decent bet for week 1, and no later than week 5, as he's got a lot to prove, as does Hollywood.

23. Drake London, honestly thought he looked every bit as good as Wilson or Olave as a rookie, he was just in a worse situation where he not only had poor QB play, but also a team that wasn't passing. The Falcons aren't going to change their identity, but they'll pass more often simply because it'll be hard not to, only 4 teams in the last 15 years passed on a lower % of plays than the 2022 Falcons.

24. Jerry Jeudy, came on a bit as he started to look like Wilson's new Lockett that many had predicted, but injuries continued to be an issue. I think Jeudy is the clear cut #1, and has a solid floor, with maybe a path to top-15 upside if Wilson bounces back.

25. Terry McLaurin, Washington seemed to alternate who the #1 WR was throughout last season. I like Scary Terry, but I don't have too much faith in Howell or maybe more accurately Bienemy, who I felt was more riding Reid's coattails. Still, we've seen McLaurin be a WR2 in bad situations before. I'm just not seeing much in the way of upside.

26. Brandon Aiyuk, he's possibly every bit the talent Deebo is, but I'm mildly concerned that when Deebo went down, he didn't really step up, it was Kittle and CMC who did. I wonder somewhat if 2022 might be just who he is, and possibly closer to the ceiling.

27. Mike Williams, I want to be lower, but its possible he's the #1, and its possible the offense has a lot more big plays under Kellen Moore. On the flip side, its not out of the question he's pushed by Quentin Johnston. Likely a very boom/bust player.

28. Tyler Lockett, I think his target share is more likely to be affected by JSN than Metcalf's is, but its also possible its comes out of the TEs (Seattle was quietly the 3rd most productive TE room in the NFL last year, it was just split 3 ways) and Lockett is barely affected. I'm hedging a bit as Lockett has been a pretty safe WR2 the last 3 years and I'm ranking him as a WR3.

29. Chris Godwin, I'm ranking him over Evans pretty much just off age and thinking he might regain some big play ability a year removed from his ACL tear. Maybe he'll have a rapport with Mayfield, ala Jarvis Landry, but I'm seeing very little ceiling, but probably still lots of targets in what should be a much more concise passing tree in TB without Brady.

30. Christian Kirk, I kinda thought I'd have him higher, but I think he could lose some volume, as Ridley's presence could make Kirk more of a short area slot WR. I could see his YPR and TDs coming down a bit, as that role will likely also coincide with Engram's role a bit.

31. Mike Evans, Evans is a tough call as its possible his target share could increase back to where it was pre-Brady, even if the target quality comes down a lot. Of course, he also could be slowing down at 30, and the QB play could be as bad as ever. Still, I think the difference between him and Godwin is pretty much a tossup.

32. Diontae Johnson, it's hard to be unluckier than Johnson was last year with 0 TDs on 86 catches. He's still the clear #1, and if Pickett takes a step forward this will be too low. But I think the Steelers continue trying to win by running and defense, and I think Johnson's rapport with Big Ben was a big part of his appeal. While 0 TDs is unlikely to happen again, a return to 8 is also likely a stretch.

33. Rondale Moore, this might be where I lose some people. I think Moore was underutilized by Kingsbury as just a gadget guy. While that is likely always going to be a part of his game, I don't think he's that limited, and I think he is the clear #2 on a team that will be playing from behind a lot. Could be a PPR dynamo with 80+ catches.

34. Michael Pittman, he's in an interesting spot, where in theory he's the clear cut #1, but has also really only looked good 1 year out of 3, and is going to have a very run heavy offense, where the QB has spotty accuracy. An optimist would argue those are the setting he had when he had his best year with Wentz, a pessimist would argue nobody in that passing game is gonna have much value. I'm somewhere in between.

35. Kadarius Toney, has maybe the widest range of outcomes of any WR. I could see an 80+ catch season, I could see him being a gadget/ST guy. One thing is clear, Mahomes likes him, he saw 23% of the targets whenever he was on the field, which is a recipe for top-20 numbers if he sees fulltime starter snaps.

36. Treylon Burks, on the one hand, he showed some ability and is the clear cut #1 WR, on the other hand, how long will Tannehill be starting? I think Burks has some upside, but he's not AJ Brown and the its a thin line to value in this offense.

37. George Pickens, made some really impressive plays, but showed no real consistency snap to snap. Likely the #3 option in the passing game but is a big play candidate any given week. I'm guessing someone in every league will have him higher than this as a breakout candidate. Lives on big plays, how good is Pickett?

38. Quentin Johnston, I think he'll be on the field a ton. He brings some much needed playmaking ability to the offense, and could have top-20 value should Allen or Williams miss time again. If not, I think he'll usurp Everett as the #4 pass catcher.

39. Jordan Addison, I don't see KJ Osborn being much of a stumbling block. Addison reminded me a lot of Emmanuel Sanders as a prospect, where he was an ideal fit behind a target hog #1. I think 60 catches is very doable as a rookie, and it wouldn't blow my mind, if he was more of a threat to Hockenson then he's being treated as.

40. Zay Flowers, its asking a lot for a rookie to be a #1 WR, but I think I'll be out on Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman feels less safe to me. I think spending a 1st on Flowers tells us that even after adding OBJ and getting Bateman back, they were not sold on the WR position. Flowers has some deep speed, but also win with RAC. Its possible he can play a Hollywood Brown-ish role for the Ravens.

 

[travdogg]

TE:
1. Travis Kelce, I probably don't need to add anything other than "duh!" here but I will. Kelce has 3 of the top-6 fantasy seasons by a TE in the last 30 years. He had 20 fewer points than Davante Adams last season, and you can start him at TE. I wouldn't totally dismiss an argument for him as high as #2 overall, but he should be gone no later than #6. Not worried about his age at all, 2020 and 2022 are his 2 best years, he's clearly not on any decline.

2. Mark Andrews, so Andrews was the TE1 in 2021, and through the first 6 weeks of last year, was topping that, with 4 games with 23+ points during that stretch. He was never the same after getting hurt, and once Lamar went down, he was barely startable. Now, Greg Roman is gone and Todd Monken is in. That bodes well for Andrews in my opinion. He's still the clear #1 option in the passing game and might even see less defensive attention. I'm on board with Andrews as a 3rd round pick.

3. George Kittle, last season's TE2, who is a threat for 6-100-2 in any given week, occasionally falls out if the gameplan due to so many other quality weapons. That said, when Deebo went down Kittle was not just the #1 TE, he was the #2 non-QB in all of fantasy. Ideally Purdy is good to go, but Kittle can perform with anyone, hell, he had a top-3 year with Nick Mullens. I sometimes wonder if he were on KC, if he'd be the record setting TE.

4. Kyle Pitts, I'm not sure I've ever seen a more hard luck TE in fantasy than Pitts. He was 2nd among TE's in target share and 1st in air yards last year, and Mariota just completely sunk him. There's a great twitter video of all of the misses intended for Pitts and there is probably 500 yards and 5 TDs on it. Pitts has not been a bust, the Falcons passing game has been. Ridder or Heinicke will be upgrades by default. The ceiling hasn't gone anywhere, its got some risk, but there is some Andrews level potential here.

5. Darren Waller, 2020 probably isn't coming back, but he's a clear cut #1 pass catcher, who has 100 catch potential. Is it possible he milked his hamstring injury? Maybe, he wouldn't be the first guy who got sick of playing for McDaniels, but it could just as easily have been bad luck. I'm guessing I'm gonna end up with either Pitts or Waller this season, and certainly not with...

6. TJ Hockenson, I know the gut instinct is to think that with a full offseason he'll only get better, but I actually think the opposite is true in this case. I think the Vikings force fed him a ton when he got there, and it was sometimes to the detriment of the team. I think they also realized Thielen was washed and was only surviving due to his outstanding rapport with Cousins, from that aspect I think Addison will be an instant upgrade and potential threat to Hockenson. I also think the Vikings will, pass less often just due to better defense with an actual DC. I don't hate Hockenson, he was worth the picks they traded for him, I just think we just saw his ceiling, and while it was fine, it wasn't amazing. He was TE3, because everyone else got hurt, otherwise he had about a TE6 season.

7. Dallas Goedert, probably better than this ranking as a player, but he's the clear #3 target in Philly, so his ceiling so only so high. Solid floor option, but likely goes higher than he should.

8. Pat Freiermuth, kind of a poor man's Kittle, where he occasionally disappears, but is capable of 6-80-1 in any given week. Outside shot he is the leading pass catcher in Pittsburgh if they roll out more 2-TE sets and use him less as a blocker.

9. David Njoku, my personal opinion, is he'll be ahead of Elijah Moore in the pecking order. If Watson gets back to his Houston level, this will be too low.

10. Evan Engram, as I mentioned in the WR section, I think the Ridley addition puts a bit of an overlap into Kirk/Engram and that probably isn't one that will favor Engram. I think he'll his usual boom/bust self, with Lawrence blowup games likely providing a slightly higher floor than his time in NY did.

11. Dalton Schultz, on the one hand, its possible he could lead the Texans in targets, on the other, its possible he isn't all that good, and was being propped up by a very fantasy friendly offense. I'm hedging here, but kinda hoping someone else takes him.

12. Greg Dulcich, classic Sean Payton seam stretcher, doesn't have Jimmy Graham's upside, but Ben Watson maybe...? #2 passing game role is there for the taking in Denver. Will Wilson rebound is the question surrounding all Broncos however, and I'm not super confident about it.

13. Chigoziem Okonkwo, could easily be the #2 pass catcher on the team, and looked great in limited work as a rookie. Sample size was pretty small, but they let Hooper walk and added no real competition.

14. Dalton Kincaid, I wanna argue him higher, but rookie TEs are usually minefields, and unless he plays more of a slot role (which has been talked about but is often coachspeak) he's probably splitting snaps with Knox at least to start. Huge fan in dynasty, where he should go top-10 in my eyes.

15. Tyler Higbee, was the clear #2 option in LA last year when Stafford was playing. Little upside but a solid floor, which can be all you need at TE depending on team building strategy.

 

[Soulfly3]

lawrence and fields ahead of Watson makes my tummy feel funny.

otherwise, a solid list w solid justification. don't agree with some of it, but i just assess different, and like to see other opinions.

right on.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Thank you for the rankings and analysis. It looks like you will be staying away from the KC backfield, not that I can blame you. I think there is a marginal chance Pacheco improves and gets a little more involved in the passing game, but the upside looks limited right now.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

There is alot of chalk here, but some observations.

(QB9) Watson - When all is said and done come mid-late August, I think he'll be above Fields for sure and maybe even Lamar. August is an optimistic time and your point of him being a Top 5 QB from 2018-2020 won't go unnoticed. And I'm leaning rust too. And so will everyone else.

(QB15) Tua - He hasn't shown 'season stamina' not withstanding the injuries in his career yet. His last 4 games of both 2021/2022 were below par. QB15 is probably an accurate rank, but it could be achieved with a 1st half of QB5 and a 2nd half of QB25 based on historical precedent.

(RB22) Pierce - Of all the early rankings, for all positions, this is probably the one that stuns me the most based on how lukewarm the market is on him. Generally impressive rookie RB's get hyped up in Year 2. Doesn't seem to be the case here. His QB is going from Davis Mills to CJ Stroud. Feels like a positive. They have a sneaky good OL as they acquired Shaq Mason to pair with a core that includes Tunsil/Howard/Green. Yes, I know they signed Singletary but if RB23 on your rankings is Rachaad White, boy that feels like a cliff.

(RB29) Montgomery - Yes, they drafted Gibbs at #12 overall, but even his staunchest supporters acknowledge that he's a explosively versatile weapon versus workhorse at the outset of his career, much like Kamara when he came into the NFL. Montgomery is nothing special. But neither was Jamaal Williams and that role feels baked into how the Lions want to play football. He was one of the first FA's to sign and I think most feel comfortable the Lions will put up points.

(WR15) Watson - I get that the last 8 games of 2022, he went 608YFS/8. But this passing attack is being built from the ground up with a QB who we know very little about. And even so, TD production from young guys can be sketchy because of RZ learning curves. I don't doubt Watson is talented, but I think WR15 underrates the situation change. The parallel of Rodgers sitting for 3 years and then balling doesn't acknowledge that he was also in the discussion for #1 overall pick. Plus, when you have...

(WR 17) Ridley - a guy whose career per game production equates to 86/1159/10 prorated over a 17 game season. Lawrence >> Love. People forget just how good this guy is.

(TE4) Pitts - Yes, Pitts has been sunk by subpar QB play. But with Matt Ryan his rookie year, he also had but 1 TD. ANd his QB this year is Desmond Ridder. I think PItts was being drafted TE3 last year and was just poison to FF teams based on that draft capital. TE's need TD's to be highly ranked and I just don't see a ton of them coming from this passing attack.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think he'll be above Fields for sure and maybe even Lamar

If I was waiting on QB, and someone took Watson, leaving me Fields or Jackson, I'd be pretty pleased.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

(RB22) Pierce - Of all the early rankings, for all positions, this is probably the one that stuns me the most based on how lukewarm the market is on him. Generally impressive rookie RB's get hyped up in Year 2. Doesn't seem to be the case here. His QB is going from Davis Mills to CJ Stroud. Feels like a positive. They have a sneaky good OL as they acquired Shaq Mason to pair with a core that includes Tunsil/Howard/Green. Yes, I know they signed Singletary but if RB23 on your rankings is Rachaad White, boy that feels like a cliff.

Agree on this. Just saw a trade in the dynasty trade thread where some one traded Pierce and Noah Fant (who admittedly isn't worth much) for Roshon Johnson and was shocked how little value is being placed on a guy that looked great as a rookie in what should be an improved offense this year. In re-draft RB22 seems like a bargain as I don't see how he's any more risky than the rest of the second round RBs.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

RB:
1. Christian McCaffrey, its kind of funny, I'm not as high on him as I was a year ago, but nobody has passed him at RB. I had him #1 overall last year, but I'd take Jefferson/Chase over him this year. The concern is Eli Mitchell. CMC had 8 fewer PPG in games Mitchell played. CMC also peaked when Deebo was out too. The floor is still higher than anyone, but the true ceiling requires injury to others.

2. Austin Ekeler, catches will likely come down a bit with Lombardi gone, but he's still gonna be more involved than what the Dallas RBs were. Ekeler has led the NFL in TDs over the last 2 seasons, and there is no reason to expect that to change.

3. Tony Pollard, I don't subscribe to the idea that he's some limited touch player just because he hasn't been fully featured yet. He's 210 pounds and has zero holes in his game (he's greatly improved his blocking) on a very good offense, with little competition. I think 300 touches is a fair over/under, and there is a #1 overall ceiling here.

4. Bijan Robinson, I disagree that he's the best RB prospect since Saquon, he's better than Barkley was. He's going to a run heavy team with a HC who fed Derrick Henry when he was a playcaller. I do worry about his pass catching, not his ability, but his usage. If you take any snaps away that's where it makes the most sense, since you have a guy like Patterson behind him. I would expect under 50 catches.

5. Jonathan Taylor, I'm expecting him to be very boom/bust this season, which might just be the Colts offense in general. That said, its been proven that RBs opposite mobile QBs have efficiency spikes. Taylor should average over 5 YPC, but likely loses his reception ceiling. Basically, Taylor looks like a Henry-like prospect to me, but with less age/miles.

6. Saquon Barkley, like CMC, I was as high as anyone on him last season and feel like I'm a little lower this year. I have talent concerns with Barkley, I think it's safe to say the 2018-2019 guy is gone. He goes down on 1st contact way too often, and the 90-catch upside is never coming back. That said, Barkley is a great candidate to lead the NFL in touches, and that carries his value. He's probably a guy I'm hoping someone else drafts.

7. Rhamondre Stevenson, for whatever reason there seems to be a NE stink on him. This is a guy with zero holes in his game, who is likely the centerpiece of his offense. I kinda want to have him even higher than this, Stevenson's only real issue is the offense still stinks even with Patricia gone, in which case the TDs fall short of everyone around him.

8. Breece Hall, like I said earlier, I'm pretty forgiving of injuries. Frankly, I think I'm actually punishing him here, if not for the ACL, I'd have him up by Bijan. I'm expecting Hall to be playing week 1, though maybe eased in with 10-15 touch workloads at first. I think he's a little bit like Taylor, where him could be more boom/bust than others, but the ceiling is top-3.

9. Josh Jacobs, I'm risking getting burned again having him this low, but I just have serious issues with the Raiders offense. I truly don't understand what they are even trying to do, unless its finish last in their division, in which case, they are probably nailing it. Jacobs wasn't some fluke, he's always been a top-10 RB in my opinion, he just finally stayed healthy, and stopped getting pulled for scrubs. I really like this 7-13 range and will likely pass on RB in round 1.

10. Derrick Henry, the Titans are a bit of a mystery as they haven't seemed to decide whether they are rebuilding or not. Considering 9 wins won the division, is anyone truly rebuilding? Henry still looked like arguably the best runner in the NFL last season, considering he got almost zero help from his supporting cast. I do wonder if Tyjae Spears takes some of the passing work that Henry finally got a year ago, and approaching 2,000 career touches is a slight red flag, but I'd still be ok with Henry as my RB1.

11. Nick Chubb, another reason why this area is so strong. Chubb has 3 top-12 finishes in the last 4 years and continues to average 5+ YPC every year. There is very little separation between him and Stevenson, but I think he's less likely to have receiving work, and I do wonder if the Browns get a little more pass heavy, though I doubt they fully go that way, it could be a lot more than under Mayfield/Brissett.

12. Aaron Jones, long a favorite of mine, I've always felt like he is on the CMC/Ekeler talent level and is probably a better runner than either. Unfortunately, Jones has been pigeonholed into being more of a RBBC guy than his talent says he should be, and that likely continues to be the case, however, its possible/likely the Packers look to protect Jordan Love and that leads to more rushing, and more dumpoffs/screens. Jones has a solid floor, but his upside is understated.

13. Jahmyr Gibbs, I think people are being way too quick to just slot him and Montgomery into the Swift/Williams roles, and I just don't see it. I don't think those were even roles that existed, it was just Detroit losing all faith in Swift. Gibbs is starting in a spot higher than Swift ever was in my eyes, as you don't take a RB at #12 without high expectations. There is an Ekeler-like ceiling here, and Gibbs just leaving Montgomery in the dust is on the table. I think Swift-like production is probably close to Gibbs floor.

14. Najee Harris, big dropoff from 13 to 14. Najee to me is a poor man's Barkley, in the sense that his workload is his biggest asset, but unlike Barkley, he's got a guy behind him who could really push for more work. I sort of wonder if Jaylen Warren could be the Tony Pollard to Najee's Zeke, where he's the better RB, but the Steelers will fight it forever? Najee is due for some positive TD regression, as he's been very unlucky with TDs. The Steelers are likely to protect Pickett, so the volume should remain high, and maybe the OL upgrades help, but he's another guy I hope somebody else takes.

15. Travis Etienne, most have him higher, but I have some major concerns that he's more along the Miles Sanders lines than a truly great player. I think his receiving ability is massively overstated, he's not very good at it, and could be pulled on 3rd downs, he's also a terrible short yardage runner, and I fully expect him to be pulled at the GL. Etienne is an exceptional open field runner, so he's in zero danger of losing the starting job, but I think he's a guy who is destined to finish in this area for years to come, unless he spikes with a lot of long TD runs, which I don't want to count on, he's incredibly similar to...

Great work here - I like that it's a bit outside of consensus.

 

[travdogg]

There is alot of chalk here, but some observations.

(QB9) Watson - When all is said and done come mid-late August, I think he'll be above Fields for sure and maybe even Lamar. August is an optimistic time and your point of him being a Top 5 QB from 2018-2020 won't go unnoticed. And I'm leaning rust too. And so will everyone else.

(RB22) Pierce - Of all the early rankings, for all positions, this is probably the one that stuns me the most based on how lukewarm the market is on him. Generally impressive rookie RB's get hyped up in Year 2. Doesn't seem to be the case here. His QB is going from Davis Mills to CJ Stroud. Feels like a positive. They have a sneaky good OL as they acquired Shaq Mason to pair with a core that includes Tunsil/Howard/Green. Yes, I know they signed Singletary but if RB23 on your rankings is Rachaad White, boy that feels like a cliff.

(WR15) Watson - I get that the last 8 games of 2022, he went 608YFS/8. But this passing attack is being built from the ground up with a QB who we know very little about. And even so, TD production from young guys can be sketchy because of RZ learning curves. I don't doubt Watson is talented, but I think WR15 underrates the situation change. The parallel of Rodgers sitting for 3 years and then balling doesn't acknowledge that he was also in the discussion for #1 overall pick. Plus, when you have...

(WR 17) Ridley - a guy whose career per game production equates to 86/1159/10 prorated over a 17 game season. Lawrence >> Love. People forget just how good this guy is.

(TE4) Pitts - Yes, Pitts has been sunk by subpar QB play. But with Matt Ryan his rookie year, he also had but 1 TD. ANd his QB this year is Desmond Ridder. I think PItts was being drafted TE3 last year and was just poison to FF teams based on that draft capital. TE's need TD's to be highly ranked and I just don't see a ton of them coming from this passing attack.

I'll happily let others have Watson if the alternative if Fields/Jackson. I think Fields/Jackson are closer to Hurts than they are Watson.

I agree there is a pretty big drop from Pierce to White. Even though I have White RB23, I don't view him as an RB2. Its a really good year to make sure you address RB early in my opinion. Pierce is probably the last RB I feel good-ish about. Ideally, I want 2 of my top-13.

I don't think anyone is expecting Love to be Rodgers just because of similar paths, that'd be just the laziest analysis. I don't think Lawrence>>Love matters that much. As long as Love isn't a Zach Wilson level bad player that is. Watson is a #1 with no target competition, Ridley has to deal with Kirk, Engram, and Zay, plus essentially a 2-year layoff. If Rodgers was still in Green Bay, I'd probably have Watson and Garrett Wilson flipped.

Pitts has had some really bad luck in my eyes. His 1 TD season was fluky, I see a 23 year old TE who was the only TE of the modern era to have 1000 yards as a rookie, being treated like the book is written on him already, because of 1 down year.

 

[travdogg]

(RB22) Pierce - Of all the early rankings, for all positions, this is probably the one that stuns me the most based on how lukewarm the market is on him. Generally impressive rookie RB's get hyped up in Year 2. Doesn't seem to be the case here. His QB is going from Davis Mills to CJ Stroud. Feels like a positive. They have a sneaky good OL as they acquired Shaq Mason to pair with a core that includes Tunsil/Howard/Green. Yes, I know they signed Singletary but if RB23 on your rankings is Rachaad White, boy that feels like a cliff.

Agree on this. Just saw a trade in the dynasty trade thread where some one traded Pierce and Noah Fant (who admittedly isn't worth much) for Roshon Johnson and was shocked how little value is being placed on a guy that looked great as a rookie in what should be an improved offense this year. In re-draft RB22 seems like a bargain as I don't see how he's any more risky than the rest of the second round RBs.

That trade is crazy. I have noticed a lot of people are pretty gung-ho about Roschon Johnson, and man, I just don't get that at all. Johnson could easily be the #3 RB on a Bears team whose best runner plays QB.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

It’s not technically. He was the QB1.

The best ability is still availability. Hurts & Allen will always be at risk of missing games so long as they’re mobile QBs. That’s the risk/reward of those dudes.

The hits add up.

 

[travdogg]

He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

It’s not technically. He was the QB1.

The best ability is still availability. Hurts & Allen will always be at risk of missing games so long as they’re mobile QBs. That’s the risk/reward of those dudes.

The hits add up.

Its technically.

You can't blame Josh Allen for playing 1 fewer game when it was a game where his teammate almost died.

Allen has been more durable than Mahomes has for the record, having not missed a game since week 10 of 2018.

 

[jon_mx]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

It’s not technically. He was the QB1.

The best ability is still availability. Hurts & Allen will always be at risk of missing games so long as they’re mobile QBs. That’s the risk/reward of those dudes.

The hits add up.

Its technically.

You can't blame Josh Allen for playing 1 fewer game when it was a game where his teammate almost died.

Allen has been more durable than Mahomes has for the record, having not missed a game since week 10 of 2018.

Fair. Hurts has not though.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

Zero chance?

 

[travdogg]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

Jones finished ahead of Goff last year (despite sitting out week 18) and has since added Darren Waller. Watson has a FAR better track record than Goff, and better weapons (as much as I love Amon-Ra)

Richardson is likely starting with a 100+ point advantage due to his rushing. Goff had 73 yards and 0 TDs last year, and that's not unusual for him, as he's been over 100 yards 1 time in his career, way back on 2018.

If I had gone further, I would have had Goff 18th, maybe lower depending on Murray's timeline.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I'll happily let others have Watson if the alternative if Fields/Jackson. I think Fields/Jackson are closer to Hurts than they are Watson.

I agree there is a pretty big drop from Pierce to White. Even though I have White RB23, I don't view him as an RB2. Its a really good year to make sure you address RB early in my opinion. Pierce is probably the last RB I feel good-ish about. Ideally, I want 2 of my top-13.

I don't think anyone is expecting Love to be Rodgers just because of similar paths, that'd be just the laziest analysis. I don't think Lawrence>>Love matters that much. As long as Love isn't a Zach Wilson level bad player that is. Watson is a #1 with no target competition, Ridley has to deal with Kirk, Engram, and Zay, plus essentially a 2-year layoff. If Rodgers was still in Green Bay, I'd probably have Watson and Garrett Wilson flipped.

Pitts has had some really bad luck in my eyes. His 1 TD season was fluky, I see a 23 year old TE who was the only TE of the modern era to have 1000 yards as a rookie, being treated like the book is written on him already, because of 1 down year.

I certainly understand those who would rank Watson 3rd in that hierarchy. Same time, in his last full season, he put up a 4823/33/7 & 444/3 line. The yardage is equivalent to a 3500 PY/1000 RY season. Only Lamar approached that type of production and that was in 2019. Plus, Lamar breaking in a new offense...we'll see.

As long as Love isn't Zach Wilson...I don't know. GB with Rodgers threw for but 3890 yards last year despite a 56.6/43.4 run/pass ratio. GB just feels like a passing game I don't want to place to much draft capital in. That feels like more of a threat than target competition from Zay/Kirk/Engram with a generational QB talent when he had to compete for targets with prime Julio and still put up those numbers.

Pitts...his 1000 yard season came with Matt Ryan throwing 560 times and no other viable target options (Russell Gage?) and a run game that didn't have both Bijan/Allgeier. I mean, 500 attempts seems like a lot for this offense (415 in 2022) as it stands with Desmond Ridder at QB. Same as GB, I think the situation is not one I want to invest significant draft capital in.

 

[travdogg]

I'll happily let others have Watson if the alternative if Fields/Jackson. I think Fields/Jackson are closer to Hurts than they are Watson.

I agree there is a pretty big drop from Pierce to White. Even though I have White RB23, I don't view him as an RB2. Its a really good year to make sure you address RB early in my opinion. Pierce is probably the last RB I feel good-ish about. Ideally, I want 2 of my top-13.

I don't think anyone is expecting Love to be Rodgers just because of similar paths, that'd be just the laziest analysis. I don't think Lawrence>>Love matters that much. As long as Love isn't a Zach Wilson level bad player that is. Watson is a #1 with no target competition, Ridley has to deal with Kirk, Engram, and Zay, plus essentially a 2-year layoff. If Rodgers was still in Green Bay, I'd probably have Watson and Garrett Wilson flipped.

Pitts has had some really bad luck in my eyes. His 1 TD season was fluky, I see a 23 year old TE who was the only TE of the modern era to have 1000 yards as a rookie, being treated like the book is written on him already, because of 1 down year.

I certainly understand those who would rank Watson 3rd in that hierarchy. Same time, in his last full season, he put up a 4823/33/7 & 444/3 line. The yardage is equivalent to a 3500 PY/1000 RY season. Only Lamar approached that type of production and that was in 2019. Plus, Lamar breaking in a new offense...we'll see.

As long as Love isn't Zach Wilson...I don't know. GB with Rodgers threw for but 3890 yards last year despite a 56.6/43.4 run/pass ratio. GB just feels like a passing game I don't want to place to much draft capital in. That feels like more of a threat than target competition from Zay/Kirk/Engram with a generational QB talent when he had to compete for targets with prime Julio and still put up those numbers.

Pitts...his 1000 yard season came with Matt Ryan throwing 560 times and no other viable target options (Russell Gage?) and a run game that didn't have both Bijan/Allgeier. I mean, 500 attempts seems like a lot for this offense (415 in 2022) as it stands with Desmond Ridder at QB. Same as GB, I think the situation is not one I want to invest significant draft capital in.

I'd be blown away if Watson had 4800 passing yards in Cleveland. The only 4000 yard season in Browns history was by Brian Sipe the year he was NFL MVP. That 2020 Texans team barely ever ran the ball (Watson's 444 yards were only 250 from leading the team) and Watson also benefitted from a ton of garbage time that season (which I enjoyed as I had him that year) Houston had a minimum of 10 games in perfect weather, the Browns have 3. I do think that 444-3 rushing line is repeatable and probably likely to be slightly topped.

Christian Watson saw 23% of GB's targets and 41% of the air yards. I think those are repeatable, the target share could even go up if the rookies aren't ready to go, as Lazard/Cobb were arguably bigger target threats with Rodgers. I don't think a passing game needs to be very good for 1 member to excel if he's pretty much all they have. Pre-injury Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Hollywood/Hopkins, CeeDee Lamb, and Davante Adams were all top-10 PPG WRs on teams with under 4000 passing yards last year, because they were the only guys featured. I'm not saying Watson is as good as Adams or Kupp, but I don't think its crazy to think Love could be as good as Derek Carr or Jacoby Brissett.

Atlanta will pass more this year by default. Also, a lot of runs were designed Mariota runs, that likely won't be part of the playbook with Ridder/Heinicke. Ridder is mobile, but they didn't use him that way a year ago. 500 attempts is possible, but I would agree its likely on the higher end. Maybe 475? It should be more effective as well, as Mariota was dreadful with anything over 15 yards. If Ridder isn't better, he'll get benched, and while Heinicke is a backup level player, he kept McLaurin afloat, and both Dotson and Samuel had some good weeks. If Pitts stays healthy, I think 125 targets is reasonable, with maybe 135 for London, and everyone else getting scraps.

Perhaps its a philosophy difference. I don't mind having guys from lesser passing offenses, if they are key guys.

 

[efactor]

He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

It’s not technically. He was the QB1.

The best ability is still availability. Hurts & Allen will always be at risk of missing games so long as they’re mobile QBs. That’s the risk/reward of those dudes.

The hits add up.

Its technically.

You can't blame Josh Allen for playing 1 fewer game when it was a game where his teammate almost died.

Allen has been more durable than Mahomes has for the record, having not missed a game since week 10 of 2018.

Fair. Hurts has not though.

That’s a touch deceiving

-In two years as a starter, Hurts has missed 3 games.

-Mahomes missed 3 games in 2019-2020. Has played all 17 the last two years

Can’t say either is more prone to injury than the other based on that sample size. Hurts could easily play all 17 the next two years and the 4 year sample size would be even. Mahomes got hurt in the playoffs and probably would have missed time had it been the regular season. While Hurts runs more, Mahomes also runs a fair share. Hurts is also a pretty thick guy so he can absorb hits better. Just don’t see one as more likely to get hurt than the other.



-

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

It’s not technically. He was the QB1.

The best ability is still availability. Hurts & Allen will always be at risk of missing games so long as they’re mobile QBs. That’s the risk/reward of those dudes.

The hits add up.

Its technically.

You can't blame Josh Allen for playing 1 fewer game when it was a game where his teammate almost died.

Allen has been more durable than Mahomes has for the record, having not missed a game since week 10 of 2018.

Fair. Hurts has not though.

That’s a touch deceiving

-In two years as a starter, Hurts has missed 3 games.

-Mahomes missed 3 games in 2019-2020. Has played all 17 the last two years

Can’t say either is more prone to injury than the other based on that sample size. Hurts could easily play all 17 the next two years and the 4 year sample size would be even. Mahomes got hurt in the playoffs and probably would have missed time had it been the regular season. While Hurts runs more, Mahomes also runs a fair share. Hurts is also a pretty thick guy so he can absorb hits better. Just don’t see one as more likely to get hurt than the other.



-

I’m just saying potential.

Rushing QBs tend to get hurt more. While Mahomes does run, he takes far fewer hits because he runs OOB, slides, or throws it away.

Also worth noting that Mahomes got hurt on a fluke QB sneak.

 

[travdogg]

He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

It’s not technically. He was the QB1.

The best ability is still availability. Hurts & Allen will always be at risk of missing games so long as they’re mobile QBs. That’s the risk/reward of those dudes.

The hits add up.

Its technically.

You can't blame Josh Allen for playing 1 fewer game when it was a game where his teammate almost died.

Allen has been more durable than Mahomes has for the record, having not missed a game since week 10 of 2018.

Fair. Hurts has not though.

That’s a touch deceiving

-In two years as a starter, Hurts has missed 3 games.

-Mahomes missed 3 games in 2019-2020. Has played all 17 the last two years

Can’t say either is more prone to injury than the other based on that sample size. Hurts could easily play all 17 the next two years and the 4 year sample size would be even. Mahomes got hurt in the playoffs and probably would have missed time had it been the regular season. While Hurts runs more, Mahomes also runs a fair share. Hurts is also a pretty thick guy so he can absorb hits better. Just don’t see one as more likely to get hurt than the other.



-

I’m just saying potential.

Rushing QBs tend to get hurt more. While Mahomes does run, he takes far fewer hits because he runs OOB, slides, or throws it away.

Also worth noting that Mahomes got hurt on a fluke QB sneak.

I apologize in advance as I don't recall what thread it was posted in, but running QBs actually aren't more likely to get hurt than pocket QBs. More hits actually doesn't lead to more injuries, as running QBs tend to have some control over their hits as opposed to being blindsided by a pass rusher.

I see your Mahomes got hurt on a QB sneak and raise you Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts getting hurt on sacks. Russell Wilson (2021) and Dak Prescott getting hurt on the follow through of a pass, Tua getting hurt on a hit as he was throwing, Brock Purdy getting hurt in his windup, and Tannehill and Jimmy G got rolled up on scrambles.

The only guy I recall getting hurt on a run last year was Kyler Murray, who was untouched. Though I admit its possible I'm forgetting someone.

 

[efactor]

He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

It’s not technically. He was the QB1.

The best ability is still availability. Hurts & Allen will always be at risk of missing games so long as they’re mobile QBs. That’s the risk/reward of those dudes.

The hits add up.

Its technically.

You can't blame Josh Allen for playing 1 fewer game when it was a game where his teammate almost died.

Allen has been more durable than Mahomes has for the record, having not missed a game since week 10 of 2018.

Fair. Hurts has not though.

That’s a touch deceiving

-In two years as a starter, Hurts has missed 3 games.

-Mahomes missed 3 games in 2019-2020. Has played all 17 the last two years

Can’t say either is more prone to injury than the other based on that sample size. Hurts could easily play all 17 the next two years and the 4 year sample size would be even. Mahomes got hurt in the playoffs and probably would have missed time had it been the regular season. While Hurts runs more, Mahomes also runs a fair share. Hurts is also a pretty thick guy so he can absorb hits better. Just don’t see one as more likely to get hurt than the other.



-

I’m just saying potential.

Rushing QBs tend to get hurt more. While Mahomes does run, he takes far fewer hits because he runs OOB, slides, or throws it away.

Also worth noting that Mahomes got hurt on a fluke QB sneak.

I apologize in advance as I don't recall what thread it was posted in, but running QBs actually aren't more likely to get hurt than pocket QBs. More hits actually doesn't lead to more injuries, as running QBs tend to have some control over their hits as opposed to being blindsided by a pass rusher.

I see your Mahomes got hurt on a QB sneak and raise you Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts getting hurt on sacks. Russell Wilson (2021) and Dak Prescott getting hurt on the follow through of a pass, Tua getting hurt on a hit as he was throwing, Brock Purdy getting hurt in his windup, and Tannehill and Jimmy G got rolled up on scrambles.

The only guy I recall getting hurt on a run last year was Kyler Murray, who was untouched. Though I admit its possible I'm forgetting someone.

Trey Lance

 

[travdogg]

He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

It’s not technically. He was the QB1.

The best ability is still availability. Hurts & Allen will always be at risk of missing games so long as they’re mobile QBs. That’s the risk/reward of those dudes.

The hits add up.

Its technically.

You can't blame Josh Allen for playing 1 fewer game when it was a game where his teammate almost died.

Allen has been more durable than Mahomes has for the record, having not missed a game since week 10 of 2018.

Fair. Hurts has not though.

That’s a touch deceiving

-In two years as a starter, Hurts has missed 3 games.

-Mahomes missed 3 games in 2019-2020. Has played all 17 the last two years

Can’t say either is more prone to injury than the other based on that sample size. Hurts could easily play all 17 the next two years and the 4 year sample size would be even. Mahomes got hurt in the playoffs and probably would have missed time had it been the regular season. While Hurts runs more, Mahomes also runs a fair share. Hurts is also a pretty thick guy so he can absorb hits better. Just don’t see one as more likely to get hurt than the other.



-

I’m just saying potential.

Rushing QBs tend to get hurt more. While Mahomes does run, he takes far fewer hits because he runs OOB, slides, or throws it away.

Also worth noting that Mahomes got hurt on a fluke QB sneak.

I apologize in advance as I don't recall what thread it was posted in, but running QBs actually aren't more likely to get hurt than pocket QBs. More hits actually doesn't lead to more injuries, as running QBs tend to have some control over their hits as opposed to being blindsided by a pass rusher.

I see your Mahomes got hurt on a QB sneak and raise you Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts getting hurt on sacks. Russell Wilson (2021) and Dak Prescott getting hurt on the follow through of a pass, Tua getting hurt on a hit as he was throwing, Brock Purdy getting hurt in his windup, and Tannehill and Jimmy G got rolled up on scrambles.

The only guy I recall getting hurt on a run last year was Kyler Murray, who was untouched. Though I admit its possible I'm forgetting someone.

Trey Lance

I thought I was forgetting someone.

 

[efactor]

He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

It’s not technically. He was the QB1.

The best ability is still availability. Hurts & Allen will always be at risk of missing games so long as they’re mobile QBs. That’s the risk/reward of those dudes.

The hits add up.

Its technically.

You can't blame Josh Allen for playing 1 fewer game when it was a game where his teammate almost died.

Allen has been more durable than Mahomes has for the record, having not missed a game since week 10 of 2018.

Fair. Hurts has not though.

That’s a touch deceiving

-In two years as a starter, Hurts has missed 3 games.

-Mahomes missed 3 games in 2019-2020. Has played all 17 the last two years

Can’t say either is more prone to injury than the other based on that sample size. Hurts could easily play all 17 the next two years and the 4 year sample size would be even. Mahomes got hurt in the playoffs and probably would have missed time had it been the regular season. While Hurts runs more, Mahomes also runs a fair share. Hurts is also a pretty thick guy so he can absorb hits better. Just don’t see one as more likely to get hurt than the other.



-

I’m just saying potential.

Rushing QBs tend to get hurt more. While Mahomes does run, he takes far fewer hits because he runs OOB, slides, or throws it away.

Also worth noting that Mahomes got hurt on a fluke QB sneak.

I apologize in advance as I don't recall what thread it was posted in, but running QBs actually aren't more likely to get hurt than pocket QBs. More hits actually doesn't lead to more injuries, as running QBs tend to have some control over their hits as opposed to being blindsided by a pass rusher.

I see your Mahomes got hurt on a QB sneak and raise you Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts getting hurt on sacks. Russell Wilson (2021) and Dak Prescott getting hurt on the follow through of a pass, Tua getting hurt on a hit as he was throwing, Brock Purdy getting hurt in his windup, and Tannehill and Jimmy G got rolled up on scrambles.

The only guy I recall getting hurt on a run last year was Kyler Murray, who was untouched. Though I admit its possible I'm forgetting someone.

Trey Lance

I thought I was forgetting someone.

Being a 49er fan kind of made that one stick out for me

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He technically was QB1 last year, but that was only because Hurts missed 2 games, and Allen had a game canceled.

It’s not technically. He was the QB1.

The best ability is still availability. Hurts & Allen will always be at risk of missing games so long as they’re mobile QBs. That’s the risk/reward of those dudes.

The hits add up.

Its technically.

You can't blame Josh Allen for playing 1 fewer game when it was a game where his teammate almost died.

Allen has been more durable than Mahomes has for the record, having not missed a game since week 10 of 2018.

Fair. Hurts has not though.

That’s a touch deceiving

-In two years as a starter, Hurts has missed 3 games.

-Mahomes missed 3 games in 2019-2020. Has played all 17 the last two years

Can’t say either is more prone to injury than the other based on that sample size. Hurts could easily play all 17 the next two years and the 4 year sample size would be even. Mahomes got hurt in the playoffs and probably would have missed time had it been the regular season. While Hurts runs more, Mahomes also runs a fair share. Hurts is also a pretty thick guy so he can absorb hits better. Just don’t see one as more likely to get hurt than the other.



-

I’m just saying potential.

Rushing QBs tend to get hurt more. While Mahomes does run, he takes far fewer hits because he runs OOB, slides, or throws it away.

Also worth noting that Mahomes got hurt on a fluke QB sneak.

I apologize in advance as I don't recall what thread it was posted in, but running QBs actually aren't more likely to get hurt than pocket QBs. More hits actually doesn't lead to more injuries, as running QBs tend to have some control over their hits as opposed to being blindsided by a pass rusher.

I see your Mahomes got hurt on a QB sneak and raise you Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts getting hurt on sacks. Russell Wilson (2021) and Dak Prescott getting hurt on the follow through of a pass, Tua getting hurt on a hit as he was throwing, Brock Purdy getting hurt in his windup, and Tannehill and Jimmy G got rolled up on scrambles.

The only guy I recall getting hurt on a run last year was Kyler Murray, who was untouched. Though I admit its possible I'm forgetting someone.

Trey Lance

I thought I was forgetting someone.

I recall McNabb breaking a fibula, but that was years ago. Vick used to get banged up as well

Also last year Fields hurt his hip.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I recall McNabb breaking a fibula

He broke his ankle/fibula on a sack.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

this is about what I see in other "expert" rankings as well, seen Richardson and Jones both well into the top 10 in some places and I think FBGs current consensus rankings are about there too. I 100% agree with your sentiment about all four players you listed. However... (redraft opinions incoming)

Goff would have to repeat last year's performance for me, personally, to buy into him as a top tier QB.

I think Watson should find his footing early in the season so I can buy that his ceiling >> Goff's.

Jones, I have a hard time understanding his hype, though he did have a good season last year, I feel like i watched most of his games since coming into the league and I just don't see a high level QB. Clearly I'm the irrational one about him. I will admit his fantasy floor is and has been very steady and higher than most, I don't believe his ceiling is very high. I would call him == Goff.

Richardson, I have no clue.

 

[pinkstapler]

Great ranks and really appreciate the analysis! An awesome read and contribution for everyone, thank you!

 

[travdogg]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

this is about what I see in other "expert" rankings as well, seen Richardson and Jones both well into the top 10 in some places and I think FBGs current consensus rankings are about there too. I 100% agree with your sentiment about all four players you listed. However... (redraft opinions incoming)

Goff would have to repeat last year's performance for me, personally, to buy into him as a top tier QB.

I think Watson should find his footing early in the season so I can buy that his ceiling >> Goff's.

Jones, I have a hard time understanding his hype, though he did have a good season last year, I feel like i watched most of his games since coming into the league and I just don't see a high level QB. Clearly I'm the irrational one about him. I will admit his fantasy floor is and has been very steady and higher than most, I don't believe his ceiling is very high. I would call him == Goff.

Richardson, I have no clue.

I don't think anyone thinks Jones is a high level QB. But any QB getting 700-7 on the ground is gonna be a top-12 guy. Its 112 points without even throwing a pass. That's the equivalent of 28 passing TDs over guys who don't run at all like Goff.

Personally, I think Richardson could hit that mark as well, with upside, especially in the TD column, as its likely the tush push makes its way to Indy.

ETA: To expand on that rushing point: Imagine if Justin Fields had scored the same number of points but didn't run. His passing stats would have been 4200-37, and that's with 2 missed games. Same experiment with Jalen Hurts, and you'd have a 15-game season with 5600-41 passing. Running QBs get an even bigger fantasy boost than receiving RBs.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I recall McNabb breaking a fibula

He broke his ankle/fibula on a sack.

Ah.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

this is about what I see in other "expert" rankings as well, seen Richardson and Jones both well into the top 10 in some places and I think FBGs current consensus rankings are about there too. I 100% agree with your sentiment about all four players you listed. However... (redraft opinions incoming)

Goff would have to repeat last year's performance for me, personally, to buy into him as a top tier QB.

I think Watson should find his footing early in the season so I can buy that his ceiling >> Goff's.

Jones, I have a hard time understanding his hype, though he did have a good season last year, I feel like i watched most of his games since coming into the league and I just don't see a high level QB. Clearly I'm the irrational one about him. I will admit his fantasy floor is and has been very steady and higher than most, I don't believe his ceiling is very high. I would call him == Goff.

Richardson, I have no clue.

I don't think anyone thinks Jones is a high level QB. But any QB getting 700-7 on the ground is gonna be a top-12 guy. Its 112 points without even throwing a pass. That's the equivalent of 28 passing TDs over guys who don't run at all like Goff.

Personally, I think Richardson could hit that mark as well, with upside, especially in the TD column, as its likely the tush push makes its way to Indy.

ETA: To expand on that rushing point: Imagine if Justin Fields had scored the same number of points but didn't run. His passing stats would have been 4200-37, and that's with 2 missed games. Same experiment with Jalen Hurts, and you'd have a 15-game season with 5600-41 passing. Running QBs get an even bigger fantasy boost than receiving RBs.

excellent points, i absolutely downplayed his rushing abilities in my assessment.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't think anyone thinks Jones is a high level QB. But any QB getting 700-7 on the ground is gonna be a top-12 guy

Jones always looks so clumsy & goofy when he runs. He seems to have mostly curtailed the fumbling issue, but he’s gotta be the least athletic looking 700 yard rusher in history. Just gangly & awkward.

If any rushing QB is gonna get hurt doing it, my bet is on Jones.

Not a scientific opinion, just an observation.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

The problem for Goff is that as more and more QB's become dual threats, he brings nothing here. He had a 29/73/0 line in 2022. Trevor Lawrence who I wouldn't say runs all that much but has that ability, put up 62/291/3. The right there is a 40 point difference which is not insignificant. Burrow put up 257/5.

Two QB's entering the league; Richardson and Stroud have wheels. Stroud has spoken of his lament for not using those wheels more in college. But let's say a QB runs for 550/6. That's 91 points. Meaning a 3400/20/12 line gets that QB another 192 for 283. Goff came in at 286.8.

It's more about the scoring system than anything else.

 

[BobbyLayne]

QBs - all these generally OK. I have the same Top 3 in Tier 1 (different order), the same 4-8 in Tier 2 - again in different order, but same tier so who cares - and mostly the same in my large Tier 3 (bc honestly QB9 v QB16 is relatively narrow.) I don't have AR, would add Cousins and Goff, slightly different order, but essentially the same Tier as mine.

Running Backs - these differ a bit so I'll just list mine.

1. Top Tier - CMC, Ekeler, Barkley
2. (4-9) Bijan, JT, Jacobs, Pollard, Rhamondre, Chubb
3. (10-15) King Henry, Hall, Najee, ETN, A Jones, MIxon
4. (16-25) KWIII, Gibbs, Dobbins, Sanders, Pierce, Dalvin (??), Akers, White, Swift, Conner
5. (26-36) Monty, Javonte, AK41, Pacheco, Mattison, James Cook, B-Rob Jr, Herbert, Dillon, Gibson, Jamaal

Wide Receivers - same exact top 4 in Tier 1 for me, same players different order for the next 5 in Tier 2. So basically the same 1-9 with minor order changes on the back half.
Tier 3 (10-16) - six are the same, close in order. I have Ridley at 25 (Tier 4) simply bc he's only played 5 g the last two years, and I think Kirk has outstanding chemistry with Lawrence. Watson was pretty boom/bust, I see a Gabe Davis kind of dichotomy with how people view him. He's not a volume guy and his TD rate is unsustainable. I have him at the top of Tier 5, 28th. Still, largely the same through the top 16.

I have Marquise Brown 10 spots lower than you (32) but could move him up if I felt confident Kyler will play more than 50% of games. I have Godwin 18 (Baker had good deep ball stats last year) but otherwise all my WR rankings are within 1-2 spots of yours.

 

[menobrown]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

Is this schtick?

 

[jon_mx]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

Is this schtick?

Goff will throw for nearly 5,000 yards and 35 TDs....I would be shocked if he is not top 10, even with fantasy football's over valuation of running stats.

 

[travdogg]

QBs - all these generally OK. I have the same Top 3 in Tier 1 (different order), the same 4-8 in Tier 2 - again in different order, but same tier so who cares - and mostly the same in my large Tier 3 (bc honestly QB9 v QB16 is relatively narrow.) I don't have AR, would add Cousins and Goff, slightly different order, but essentially the same Tier as mine.

Running Backs - these differ a bit so I'll just list mine.

1. Top Tier - CMC, Ekeler, Barkley
2. (4-9) Bijan, JT, Jacobs, Pollard, Rhamondre, Chubb
3. (10-15) King Henry, Hall, Najee, ETN, A Jones, MIxon
4. (16-25) KWIII, Gibbs, Dobbins, Sanders, Pierce, Dalvin (??), Akers, White, Swift, Conner
5. (26-36) Monty, Javonte, AK41, Pacheco, Mattison, James Cook, B-Rob Jr, Herbert, Dillon, Gibson, Jamaal

Wide Receivers - same exact top 4 in Tier 1 for me, same players different order for the next 5 in Tier 2. So basically the same 1-9 with minor order changes on the back half.
Tier 3 (10-16) - six are the same, close in order. I have Ridley at 25 (Tier 4) simply bc he's only played 5 g the last two years, and I think Kirk has outstanding chemistry with Lawrence. Watson was pretty boom/bust, I see a Gabe Davis kind of dichotomy with how people view him. He's not a volume guy and his TD rate is unsustainable. I have him at the top of Tier 5, 28th. Still, largely the same through the top 16.

I have Marquise Brown 10 spots lower than you (32) but could move him up if I felt confident Kyler will play more than 50% of games. I have Godwin 18 (Baker had good deep ball stats last year) but otherwise all my WR rankings are within 1-2 spots of yours.

We aren't too different, but since he's apparently my guy this year I want to add more context to Christian Watson. I agree his TD rate is unsustainable, but I'm not so quick to dismiss him as a volume guy. He got off to a slow start with injuries and not being on the same page with Rodgers, but from week 10 (when he became a starter) on he was on a 120 target pace. 258 targets from last year (Lazard, Tonyan, Cobb, Watkins etc.) are gone, and I find it much more likely the ascending playmaker from a year ago claims a healthy share of those, then a bunch of rookies get them. I think Watson could absolutely push for 140+ targets, which if he keeps mixing in some big plays (likely considering his size/speed/RAC) he could put up something like 85 catches for 1,300 yards as long as Love is not awful. Watson is a centerpiece of my draft plans. I think he's a 3rd round value going in round 5/6.


If Mayfield's deep ball is working, do you think that benefits Godwin more than Evans?

 

[menobrown]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

Is this schtick?

Goff will throw for nearly 5,000 yards and 35 TDs....I would be shocked if he is not top 10, even with fantasy football's over valuation of running stats.

Ok but he was QB14 in PPG last year, is being drafted as QB18 right now in FFPC, behind all of those QB's you mentioned.

I know you are wildly high on the Lions but it all seems a bit much using the tone and verbiage you used when someone ranks him behind those QB's when it's pretty much the current consensus opinion.

 

[travdogg]

Goff not in the top 10 is criminal. Zero chance he finishes below Watson, Richardson (really???), or Jones (you can not be serious!).

Is this schtick?

Goff will throw for nearly 5,000 yards and 35 TDs....I would be shocked if he is not top 10, even with fantasy football's over valuation of running stats.

Is the season 20 weeks now? I kid, but man, you are a lock to end up with Goff in every league you play in if that is how you feel.

Over the last 10 years, the only guys who have hit that level are Mahomes, Brady, Herbert, Stafford, Ryan, Brees, Luck, and Peyton.

 

[BobbyLayne]

QBs - all these generally OK. I have the same Top 3 in Tier 1 (different order), the same 4-8 in Tier 2 - again in different order, but same tier so who cares - and mostly the same in my large Tier 3 (bc honestly QB9 v QB16 is relatively narrow.) I don't have AR, would add Cousins and Goff, slightly different order, but essentially the same Tier as mine.

Running Backs - these differ a bit so I'll just list mine.

1. Top Tier - CMC, Ekeler, Barkley
2. (4-9) Bijan, JT, Jacobs, Pollard, Rhamondre, Chubb
3. (10-15) King Henry, Hall, Najee, ETN, A Jones, MIxon
4. (16-25) KWIII, Gibbs, Dobbins, Sanders, Pierce, Dalvin (??), Akers, White, Swift, Conner
5. (26-36) Monty, Javonte, AK41, Pacheco, Mattison, James Cook, B-Rob Jr, Herbert, Dillon, Gibson, Jamaal

Wide Receivers - same exact top 4 in Tier 1 for me, same players different order for the next 5 in Tier 2. So basically the same 1-9 with minor order changes on the back half.
Tier 3 (10-16) - six are the same, close in order. I have Ridley at 25 (Tier 4) simply bc he's only played 5 g the last two years, and I think Kirk has outstanding chemistry with Lawrence. Watson was pretty boom/bust, I see a Gabe Davis kind of dichotomy with how people view him. He's not a volume guy and his TD rate is unsustainable. I have him at the top of Tier 5, 28th. Still, largely the same through the top 16.

I have Marquise Brown 10 spots lower than you (32) but could move him up if I felt confident Kyler will play more than 50% of games. I have Godwin 18 (Baker had good deep ball stats last year) but otherwise all my WR rankings are within 1-2 spots of yours.

We aren't too different, but since he's apparently my guy this year I want to add more context to Christian Watson. I agree his TD rate is unsustainable, but I'm not so quick to dismiss him as a volume guy. He got off to a slow start with injuries and not being on the same page with Rodgers, but from week 10 (when he became a starter) on he was on a 120 target pace. 258 targets from last year (Lazard, Tonyan, Cobb, Watkins etc.) are gone, and I find it much more likely the ascending playmaker from a year ago claims a healthy share of those, then a bunch of rookies get them. I think Watson could absolutely push for 140+ targets, which if he keeps mixing in some big plays (likely considering his size/speed/RAC) he could put up something like 85 catches for 1,300 yards as long as Love is not awful. Watson is a centerpiece of my draft plans. I think he's a 3rd round value going in round 5/6.


If Mayfield's deep ball is working, do you think that benefits Godwin more than Evans?

Historically that's been more of Evans domain, but was pretty underwhelming most of last year.

I have Evans at WR34. If not for that insane 48.7 final game he was tracking for a WR30ish finish. The two previous years his ranking was propped up by 14 and 13 TDs. I know he's always good for 1K but I think this is finally the year his production takes a bit of a hit. Still a solid WR3 and his ADP is fine for what he'll be IMO.

Godwin, I think, will just continue to be the guy he has always been when healthy (well, 4 years running anyway.) Still only 27. Would be higher on him if he was more of a RZ threat. I think he'll outperform his late 5th round ADP. Not going out of my way to grab him but we'll see how the trends in redraft look this summer.

Anyway, this is Baker's last chance, and he actually played kind of decent at times for the Rams. Would not surprise me if the Bucs suck a little less than most people expect them to, and in a weak division, they could have some good matchups.

 

[travdogg]

QBs - all these generally OK. I have the same Top 3 in Tier 1 (different order), the same 4-8 in Tier 2 - again in different order, but same tier so who cares - and mostly the same in my large Tier 3 (bc honestly QB9 v QB16 is relatively narrow.) I don't have AR, would add Cousins and Goff, slightly different order, but essentially the same Tier as mine.

Running Backs - these differ a bit so I'll just list mine.

1. Top Tier - CMC, Ekeler, Barkley
2. (4-9) Bijan, JT, Jacobs, Pollard, Rhamondre, Chubb
3. (10-15) King Henry, Hall, Najee, ETN, A Jones, MIxon
4. (16-25) KWIII, Gibbs, Dobbins, Sanders, Pierce, Dalvin (??), Akers, White, Swift, Conner
5. (26-36) Monty, Javonte, AK41, Pacheco, Mattison, James Cook, B-Rob Jr, Herbert, Dillon, Gibson, Jamaal

Wide Receivers - same exact top 4 in Tier 1 for me, same players different order for the next 5 in Tier 2. So basically the same 1-9 with minor order changes on the back half.
Tier 3 (10-16) - six are the same, close in order. I have Ridley at 25 (Tier 4) simply bc he's only played 5 g the last two years, and I think Kirk has outstanding chemistry with Lawrence. Watson was pretty boom/bust, I see a Gabe Davis kind of dichotomy with how people view him. He's not a volume guy and his TD rate is unsustainable. I have him at the top of Tier 5, 28th. Still, largely the same through the top 16.

I have Marquise Brown 10 spots lower than you (32) but could move him up if I felt confident Kyler will play more than 50% of games. I have Godwin 18 (Baker had good deep ball stats last year) but otherwise all my WR rankings are within 1-2 spots of yours.

We aren't too different, but since he's apparently my guy this year I want to add more context to Christian Watson. I agree his TD rate is unsustainable, but I'm not so quick to dismiss him as a volume guy. He got off to a slow start with injuries and not being on the same page with Rodgers, but from week 10 (when he became a starter) on he was on a 120 target pace. 258 targets from last year (Lazard, Tonyan, Cobb, Watkins etc.) are gone, and I find it much more likely the ascending playmaker from a year ago claims a healthy share of those, then a bunch of rookies get them. I think Watson could absolutely push for 140+ targets, which if he keeps mixing in some big plays (likely considering his size/speed/RAC) he could put up something like 85 catches for 1,300 yards as long as Love is not awful. Watson is a centerpiece of my draft plans. I think he's a 3rd round value going in round 5/6.


If Mayfield's deep ball is working, do you think that benefits Godwin more than Evans?

Historically that's been more of Evans domain, but was pretty underwhelming most of last year.

I have Evans at WR34. If not for that insane 48.7 final game he was tracking for a WR30ish finish. The two previous years his ranking was propped up by 14 and 13 TDs. I know he's always good for 1K but I think this is finally the year his production takes a bit of a hit. Still a solid WR3 and his ADP is fine for what he'll be IMO.

Godwin, I think, will just continue to be the guy he has always been when healthy (well, 4 years running anyway.) Still only 27. Would be higher on him if he was more of a RZ threat. I think he'll outperform his late 5th round ADP. Not going out of my way to grab him but we'll see how the trends in redraft look this summer.

Anyway, this is Baker's last chance, and he actually played kind of decent at times for the Rams. Would not surprise me if the Bucs suck a little less than most people expect them to, and in a weak division, they could have some good matchups.

I'm kinda going the other way on the Bucs. I think they are a top candidate to have the #1 pick. Bowles/Mayfield feels like a perfect "tank" recipe, and the OL might be Wirfs and 4 scrubs, with no running game.

One thing I will say for Evans, is that Brady was kinda sorta a bad QB for him. TDs notwithstanding, Brady rarely threw 50-50 balls, and Evans has been as good as anyone at those. Mayfield might channel Jameis a little and bring those back.

I doubt I'll end up with any TB WRs, or players in general.

 

[BobbyLayne]

QBs - all these generally OK. I have the same Top 3 in Tier 1 (different order), the same 4-8 in Tier 2 - again in different order, but same tier so who cares - and mostly the same in my large Tier 3 (bc honestly QB9 v QB16 is relatively narrow.) I don't have AR, would add Cousins and Goff, slightly different order, but essentially the same Tier as mine.

Running Backs - these differ a bit so I'll just list mine.

1. Top Tier - CMC, Ekeler, Barkley
2. (4-9) Bijan, JT, Jacobs, Pollard, Rhamondre, Chubb
3. (10-15) King Henry, Hall, Najee, ETN, A Jones, MIxon
4. (16-25) KWIII, Gibbs, Dobbins, Sanders, Pierce, Dalvin (??), Akers, White, Swift, Conner
5. (26-36) Monty, Javonte, AK41, Pacheco, Mattison, James Cook, B-Rob Jr, Herbert, Dillon, Gibson, Jamaal

Wide Receivers - same exact top 4 in Tier 1 for me, same players different order for the next 5 in Tier 2. So basically the same 1-9 with minor order changes on the back half.
Tier 3 (10-16) - six are the same, close in order. I have Ridley at 25 (Tier 4) simply bc he's only played 5 g the last two years, and I think Kirk has outstanding chemistry with Lawrence. Watson was pretty boom/bust, I see a Gabe Davis kind of dichotomy with how people view him. He's not a volume guy and his TD rate is unsustainable. I have him at the top of Tier 5, 28th. Still, largely the same through the top 16.

I have Marquise Brown 10 spots lower than you (32) but could move him up if I felt confident Kyler will play more than 50% of games. I have Godwin 18 (Baker had good deep ball stats last year) but otherwise all my WR rankings are within 1-2 spots of yours.

We aren't too different, but since he's apparently my guy this year I want to add more context to Christian Watson. I agree his TD rate is unsustainable, but I'm not so quick to dismiss him as a volume guy. He got off to a slow start with injuries and not being on the same page with Rodgers, but from week 10 (when he became a starter) on he was on a 120 target pace. 258 targets from last year (Lazard, Tonyan, Cobb, Watkins etc.) are gone, and I find it much more likely the ascending playmaker from a year ago claims a healthy share of those, then a bunch of rookies get them. I think Watson could absolutely push for 140+ targets, which if he keeps mixing in some big plays (likely considering his size/speed/RAC) he could put up something like 85 catches for 1,300 yards as long as Love is not awful. Watson is a centerpiece of my draft plans. I think he's a 3rd round value going in round 5/6.


If Mayfield's deep ball is working, do you think that benefits Godwin more than Evans?

Historically that's been more of Evans domain, but was pretty underwhelming most of last year.

I have Evans at WR34. If not for that insane 48.7 final game he was tracking for a WR30ish finish. The two previous years his ranking was propped up by 14 and 13 TDs. I know he's always good for 1K but I think this is finally the year his production takes a bit of a hit. Still a solid WR3 and his ADP is fine for what he'll be IMO.

Godwin, I think, will just continue to be the guy he has always been when healthy (well, 4 years running anyway.) Still only 27. Would be higher on him if he was more of a RZ threat. I think he'll outperform his late 5th round ADP. Not going out of my way to grab him but we'll see how the trends in redraft look this summer.

Anyway, this is Baker's last chance, and he actually played kind of decent at times for the Rams. Would not surprise me if the Bucs suck a little less than most people expect them to, and in a weak division, they could have some good matchups.

I'm kinda going the other way on the Bucs. I think they are a top candidate to have the #1 pick. Bowles/Mayfield feels like a perfect "tank" recipe, and the OL might be Wirfs and 4 scrubs, with no running game.

One thing I will say for Evans, is that Brady was kinda sorta a bad QB for him. TDs notwithstanding, Brady rarely threw 50-50 balls, and Evans has been as good as anyone at those. Mayfield might channel Jameis a little and bring those back.

I doubt I'll end up with any TB WRs, or players in general.

I'm not banging the table for the Bucs. I have Bowles as a bottom 3 HC - good DC but just not the right guy IMO - and Baker is a bottom 5 QB. You roll into a season weak at those two spots, you're probably not looking at a fun year.

Lot of moving parts on the OL. PFF has them 14th, some sites have them far lower. Wirfs switching sides adds an element of uncertainty, LG is kind of up in the air (probably Feiler), Jensen at C you have questions about both health and declining skills, Mauch should be a great addition at RG but he's still just a rookie, and Goedeke should benefit from moving back to his natural position (fm G to T.) If they stay healthy I could see a path to them gelling, good OL play is more about unit cohesion than the sum of the individual parts.

Still, there's meat on the bone for Godwin and White. It's simply a question of at what price. If they fall and I like them over other options available, then I'm not going to dismiss them bc of the decal on their helmet. Pretty sure both will have productive seasons.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I think Watson could absolutely push for 140+ targets

I have him projected at 110, which is roughly what he put up when he went off last year, 52 targets in his last 8 g. I think Reed + Doubs will see 75 each. Musgrave and Kraft will probably exceed what Tonyan saw, and it wouldn't surprise me if Jones/Dillon see an uptick in targets. I don't believe Jordan Love has the talent to support the 140 85-1300 season that you're projecting.

 

[travdogg]

I think Watson could absolutely push for 140+ targets

I have him projected at 110, which is roughly what he put up when he went off last year, 52 targets in his last 8 g. I think Reed + Doubs will see 75 each. Musgrave and Kraft will probably exceed what Tonyan saw, and it wouldn't surprise me if Jones/Dillon see an uptick in targets. I don't believe Jordan Love has the talent to support the 140 85-1300 season that you're projecting.

I wouldn't say I'm projecting a 140-85-1300 season, more that I think its on the table. If I were projecting that, I would have him up by a guy like CeeDee Lamb.

I'd be a little surprised if Reed and Doubs each hit 75 targets. I think they probably combine for close to what Watson gets. I don't see either of them getting the share Lazard got.

I'm not a Jordan Love fan at all, never have been, but all he has to do is be as good as Jacoby Brissett or 2022 Derek Carr. Those aren't high bars.

Still, there's meat on the bone for Godwin and White. It's simply a question of at what price. If they fall and I like them over other options available, then I'm not going to dismiss them bc of the decal on their helmet. Pretty sure both will have productive seasons.

100% agree on the bolded. Nobody is ever really off my board. I just think I'm on the lower end of liking pretty much everyone on that team. Obviously if I can get say, Godwin or Evans in round 7+, I'll likely do it.

 

[BobbyLayne]

wrt Goff, there’s really no logical reason to be wildly optimistic he vaults himself into elite status. over the course of his career:

• aggregate: QB12, 6, 13, 18, 24, 11
• PPG: QB9, 9, 19, 19, 24,15 (min 10g)

Average = 14/16

For rushing (>100 once, last TD was 2020) I give him zero. He will probably run for 80 & lose 4 fumbles so that will net out.

Do we expect his pass attempts to increase? Absolutely no reason to project that. Same offense, same OC, they’ll still be run to setup the pass, they simply don’t lean heavily on Goff.

There’s no correlation between his best games and winning. He’s plays QB so he’s a key piece by definition but he’s maybe the 5th or 8th most important player on the team (top 4 - ARSB, Sewell, Hutchinson, Ragnow. After that’s it’s debatable: Jamo, Gibbs, Sutton, couple rookies.)

But let’s project 100% health for everyone & the good times keep rolling. He’s averaged 35.3 & 34.5 PA /g in Detroit; make it 35 x 17 = 595.

Y/A - career 7.4, last 4 years it’s been 7.4, 7.2, 6.6, 7.6. Lost his best intermediate target (Chark), replaced by 33 y.o. MJJ. Jamo is a huge Q mark who won’t play until Week 7. Gibbs and LaPorta are promising rookies but neither is driving the ADoT higher. To say he’s going to hit 8 YPA for the first time in 5 years is pure wishcasting with no basis in reality.

595 x 7.5 = 4462

That’s 5 206 (oops) yards below his career high; achievable but def on the sunny side.

TD% - 5.9, 5.7, 3.5, 3.6, 3.8, 4.8 (career 4.4)

give him 5.0% - super optimistic but not insane.

0.05 x 595 = 30 TDs

INT% - 1.5, 2.1, 2.6, 2.4, 1.6, 1.2 (career 2.0)

make it 1.5%, pretty much peak but hardly bonkers

0.015 x 595 = 9

4462 30-9 would be a phenomenal season

280.48 points - QB12 either of the last two years

that’s if everything breaks Detroit’s way & Goff continues his 10 g sample fm a year ago

 

[Dr. Octopus]

wrt Goff, there’s really no logical reason to be wildly optimistic he vaults himself into elite status.

There's one poster that if you took what he says as fact, would make the Lions the team to beat each of the last two seasons and this upcoming season. I mean Goff is a solid NFL QB, but he's hardly a fantasy asset. Seems odd to get upset that these rushing QBs have been ranked ahead of him.