Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
This is intended more from an NFL perspective than a FF POV but as always you can take what applies in the NFL community and then filter it to the teams you own.
There's a lot of debate about the QBs in college and who is coming out, which teams are likely to take a QB, and I wanted to discuss some of the thoughts that have been rolling around in this head for some time.
1st of all the actual investment in these QBs coming out of college now is not what it used to be. Most of these top picks have a cap of about $20m over 4 years...Cam Newton got $22m for 4 years compared to previous contracts of $50-$75m for the same spot in the draft for QBs. It's incredible now and I think it does encourage teams to tank at the end of the season to get as high a pick as possible. Even if you don't agree with that I do believe you will agree that the old thinking of "This team has a QB so they don't need to draft one"...look this is a passing league now and if you don't have a substantial QB and by that I mean a guy who can routinely toss up a 300yd/3TD effort if need be then you don't have a serious football team. It is all about collecting Lombardi Trophies, right?
With that in mind I wanted to briefly discuss some of these teams and why I think even those that might have a QB already would think twice about drafting a 2nd QB even though it may appear to us(the fans) that there isn't an immediate need. I am going to roll thru the bottom 7-8 teams and then you all can take it from there. I don't know the tie breakers for teams that have the same record so I'll just take total points scored by the teams to this point.
1. Indianapolis (0-10): A lot of people seem to think they have a lot to add to this situation on the networks and I don't quite understand what they are trying to say. It seems very simple...they draft Luck, they sit Luck for at least a year and maybe 2-3, then Manning retires if not sooner or they do what other teams have done with HoF QBs like Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Warren Moon...teams let them go on their way to continue their careers with other teams. I do think that with the contracts now being only 4 years that you do have to play them probably by year 2, year 3 at the absolute latest because the contracts for guys like Cam Newton when they get to year 4 before they can become a free agent is going to be around $100m most likely, maybe more in the future. I do think carrying a clipboard even for a guy like Luck and learning behind one of the greatest QBs of all time can only enhance his skill set and QBs that are allowed to go that route typically end up the wiser for it. Aaron Rodgers comes to mind in recent history. Steve McNair also carried a clipboard a good deal behind Chandler in Houston/Tennessee.
The networks seem to think drafting a QB by the Colts would create some type of riff and I think that is nonsense. It's just good business to take the best QB prospect in the draft but I will say in recent weeks that Luck looks a little more mortal than some were billing him as. Still I don't want ot turn this into the Andrew Luck thread so I'll just go along with the experts for now but I will say there are other exciting prospects in this draft. And for the sake of this thread let's assume that most of them are coming out including Barkley, Jones, and Griffin.
2. St Louis (2-8): I admit it seems that the Rams would not be in the running for a QB but remember that Bradford signed for $86 million...you can sign 4 Cam Newtons for that kind of bread. They are a long way still from being a playoff team and now they have the 49ers in their division who suddenly have taken over. Bradford looked pretty good as a rookie but I went on record as saying his pick would set the franchise back 5 years. I also retracted that some as I watched him play. This year is not all his fault but pretend you were the GM of the Rams...I know what I would do and it probably would not be popular. I might look at dealing Bradford and that contract to another team that perhaps had a lot of other pieces in place but needed a QB or a team that won't get in the top5-10 for picks and wants a QB. You can call me certifiably nuts and I'll understand but I can go draft the 2nd best QB on the board and free up a whole bunch of money to go out and improve my defense while also getting more pieces on offense. The Rams probably won't do this but it wouldn't be all that crazy if they did.
3. Minnesota (2-8): Looks like they might have something brewing at QB but do they really know for sure? Assume the Rams don't draft a QB and the Vikings are looking at prospects that are better than when they reached for Ponder last year who many experts thought was aging in the 2nd round at best. Minnesota already showed they are willing to reach for a QB and realize the importance to get that position turned around so it doesn't seem all that far fetched to me that they might bring in another QB and then let the 2 of them push each other figuring one of them will make it and be their franchise QB.
This is one of the angles I wanted to get into and discuss. Fans and FF owners think that teams are off the market for QBs because they went and got someone in last year's draft but now these teams have the luxury of not paying these guys all that much and for the price of a premier QB in the NFL, heck even less than a premier QB, these teams can now draft QBs 2 years in a row and not bankrupt the franchise. If I owned a bad team I would tell my coaches and GM that we are going to keep drafting QBs until we get that position solidified. This is the NFL, it's a business and I don't care about what the rookie from 2011 thinks if we bring in another in 2012. If either of them are worth their salt then we are going to find out. And that brings up another point...teams have stopped developing good back up QBs. We have seen teams crippled the past many weeks with injuries like Houston, Chicago, Kansas City, etc...The Miami Dolphins in 1972 went undefeated largely with a back up QB for much of the season and into the playoffs. Don Shula always had a QB ready to go at the back up position be it Earl Morral, Don Strock, Scott Mitchell and even Dan Marino his 1st 5-6 weeks in the league was the back up in Miami.
4. Carolina (2-8): I'm not going to pretend they will take another QB after what we have seen to this point in Cam Newton. They need a lot of help on defense but I wouldn't be surprised if a guy like WR Blackmon from Ok St is on the board that they wouldn't take a serious look at pairing him with Newton. Steve SMith is great but he's over 30 and he's injury prone. A guy like Newton you want to surround with as many weapons as possible.
5. Washington (3-7): Surely they are going to draft a QB if they can but how does that work for Mike Shanahan? I know he's friends with Snyder and probably has 4-5 years to prove what he can do but he's wasted 2 years with guys like McNabb, Grossman, Beck...it takes time to develop a QB and I would be petrified as a college QB coming out and having to work with Shanny. I might even tell the Skins I am not interested. The best thing for them would be to get someone other team's back up that looks promising and has been in the league for 3-4 years...Matt Flynn comes to mind. In fact I wonder if Green bay will dangle Flynn out there so they can get something for him.
6. Arizona (3-7): They are paying Kolb $10m a season, have a couple of younger arms behind him but I would not be shocked if other teams pass on QB that they wouldn't take a good hard look at a few of the prospects. You see what I'm saying here? These teams are paying double and in some cases triple what it would cost them to draft a rookie. Can Kolb lead this team to a Super Bowl? I really don't know but many fans would say no right now.
7. Jacksonville (3-7): Do you think they're sold on Gabbert right now? He looks terrible IMO and I would not be surprised a lick if they can get their hands on another good QB prospect, especially when JDR is shown his walking papers and a new coach takes over wanting to put his stamp on the team....yeah they might draft QB 2 in 2012. How can they pass up on QB prospects at the new price with guys that are likely better long term in the NFL? I never bought into Gabbert and thought he was more of a project than most of the other QB prospects like Jake Locker who went behind him. And if I were a Jaguars fan I would hope they draft another QB if they are in a position to do so. Is Gabbert a guy that is going to take a team to the Super bowl in the next 3-4 years? i don't see anything like that here. I know it's early but look at some of the other prospects in the same draft class. I would say he is behind Cam, Dalton, Locker, and maybe even Ponder at this point.
8. Miami (3-7): The Matt Moore show has been fun but this team has to draft a top QB prospect if they get a chance or the fan base will burn Joe Robbie Stadium to the ground. I really like Robert Griffin and his set of skills. He might not be Cam Newton but he has many of the same features. Miami though could be shut out if Luck, Barkley, and then Griffin off the board. I said we assume all 4 top QB prospects are coming out but what if Landry Jones stays in school and figures he will be the top pick the next year even if the money is not that much more? It really stinks as a Phinsfan but you cannot assume Miami will get a top prospect if they are picking 7th or lower in the draft. Times are changing and the incentive for teams is there now to take a many QB prospects as they can. I would not be surprise if Miami wins a few more games and ends up 6-10, completely out of the QB sweepstakes in April.
I haven't written a weekly in a long time and to be honest with you all I just have not had the time. I finished off college and have been working with pretty limited time. I just wanted to write this morning while my wife and mother in law are cooking and chasing me out of the kitchen. I hope all of you have a Happy Thanksgiving with your loved ones.
Cheers!
There's a lot of debate about the QBs in college and who is coming out, which teams are likely to take a QB, and I wanted to discuss some of the thoughts that have been rolling around in this head for some time.
1st of all the actual investment in these QBs coming out of college now is not what it used to be. Most of these top picks have a cap of about $20m over 4 years...Cam Newton got $22m for 4 years compared to previous contracts of $50-$75m for the same spot in the draft for QBs. It's incredible now and I think it does encourage teams to tank at the end of the season to get as high a pick as possible. Even if you don't agree with that I do believe you will agree that the old thinking of "This team has a QB so they don't need to draft one"...look this is a passing league now and if you don't have a substantial QB and by that I mean a guy who can routinely toss up a 300yd/3TD effort if need be then you don't have a serious football team. It is all about collecting Lombardi Trophies, right?
With that in mind I wanted to briefly discuss some of these teams and why I think even those that might have a QB already would think twice about drafting a 2nd QB even though it may appear to us(the fans) that there isn't an immediate need. I am going to roll thru the bottom 7-8 teams and then you all can take it from there. I don't know the tie breakers for teams that have the same record so I'll just take total points scored by the teams to this point.
1. Indianapolis (0-10): A lot of people seem to think they have a lot to add to this situation on the networks and I don't quite understand what they are trying to say. It seems very simple...they draft Luck, they sit Luck for at least a year and maybe 2-3, then Manning retires if not sooner or they do what other teams have done with HoF QBs like Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Warren Moon...teams let them go on their way to continue their careers with other teams. I do think that with the contracts now being only 4 years that you do have to play them probably by year 2, year 3 at the absolute latest because the contracts for guys like Cam Newton when they get to year 4 before they can become a free agent is going to be around $100m most likely, maybe more in the future. I do think carrying a clipboard even for a guy like Luck and learning behind one of the greatest QBs of all time can only enhance his skill set and QBs that are allowed to go that route typically end up the wiser for it. Aaron Rodgers comes to mind in recent history. Steve McNair also carried a clipboard a good deal behind Chandler in Houston/Tennessee.
The networks seem to think drafting a QB by the Colts would create some type of riff and I think that is nonsense. It's just good business to take the best QB prospect in the draft but I will say in recent weeks that Luck looks a little more mortal than some were billing him as. Still I don't want ot turn this into the Andrew Luck thread so I'll just go along with the experts for now but I will say there are other exciting prospects in this draft. And for the sake of this thread let's assume that most of them are coming out including Barkley, Jones, and Griffin.
2. St Louis (2-8): I admit it seems that the Rams would not be in the running for a QB but remember that Bradford signed for $86 million...you can sign 4 Cam Newtons for that kind of bread. They are a long way still from being a playoff team and now they have the 49ers in their division who suddenly have taken over. Bradford looked pretty good as a rookie but I went on record as saying his pick would set the franchise back 5 years. I also retracted that some as I watched him play. This year is not all his fault but pretend you were the GM of the Rams...I know what I would do and it probably would not be popular. I might look at dealing Bradford and that contract to another team that perhaps had a lot of other pieces in place but needed a QB or a team that won't get in the top5-10 for picks and wants a QB. You can call me certifiably nuts and I'll understand but I can go draft the 2nd best QB on the board and free up a whole bunch of money to go out and improve my defense while also getting more pieces on offense. The Rams probably won't do this but it wouldn't be all that crazy if they did.
3. Minnesota (2-8): Looks like they might have something brewing at QB but do they really know for sure? Assume the Rams don't draft a QB and the Vikings are looking at prospects that are better than when they reached for Ponder last year who many experts thought was aging in the 2nd round at best. Minnesota already showed they are willing to reach for a QB and realize the importance to get that position turned around so it doesn't seem all that far fetched to me that they might bring in another QB and then let the 2 of them push each other figuring one of them will make it and be their franchise QB.
This is one of the angles I wanted to get into and discuss. Fans and FF owners think that teams are off the market for QBs because they went and got someone in last year's draft but now these teams have the luxury of not paying these guys all that much and for the price of a premier QB in the NFL, heck even less than a premier QB, these teams can now draft QBs 2 years in a row and not bankrupt the franchise. If I owned a bad team I would tell my coaches and GM that we are going to keep drafting QBs until we get that position solidified. This is the NFL, it's a business and I don't care about what the rookie from 2011 thinks if we bring in another in 2012. If either of them are worth their salt then we are going to find out. And that brings up another point...teams have stopped developing good back up QBs. We have seen teams crippled the past many weeks with injuries like Houston, Chicago, Kansas City, etc...The Miami Dolphins in 1972 went undefeated largely with a back up QB for much of the season and into the playoffs. Don Shula always had a QB ready to go at the back up position be it Earl Morral, Don Strock, Scott Mitchell and even Dan Marino his 1st 5-6 weeks in the league was the back up in Miami.
4. Carolina (2-8): I'm not going to pretend they will take another QB after what we have seen to this point in Cam Newton. They need a lot of help on defense but I wouldn't be surprised if a guy like WR Blackmon from Ok St is on the board that they wouldn't take a serious look at pairing him with Newton. Steve SMith is great but he's over 30 and he's injury prone. A guy like Newton you want to surround with as many weapons as possible.
5. Washington (3-7): Surely they are going to draft a QB if they can but how does that work for Mike Shanahan? I know he's friends with Snyder and probably has 4-5 years to prove what he can do but he's wasted 2 years with guys like McNabb, Grossman, Beck...it takes time to develop a QB and I would be petrified as a college QB coming out and having to work with Shanny. I might even tell the Skins I am not interested. The best thing for them would be to get someone other team's back up that looks promising and has been in the league for 3-4 years...Matt Flynn comes to mind. In fact I wonder if Green bay will dangle Flynn out there so they can get something for him.
6. Arizona (3-7): They are paying Kolb $10m a season, have a couple of younger arms behind him but I would not be shocked if other teams pass on QB that they wouldn't take a good hard look at a few of the prospects. You see what I'm saying here? These teams are paying double and in some cases triple what it would cost them to draft a rookie. Can Kolb lead this team to a Super Bowl? I really don't know but many fans would say no right now.
7. Jacksonville (3-7): Do you think they're sold on Gabbert right now? He looks terrible IMO and I would not be surprised a lick if they can get their hands on another good QB prospect, especially when JDR is shown his walking papers and a new coach takes over wanting to put his stamp on the team....yeah they might draft QB 2 in 2012. How can they pass up on QB prospects at the new price with guys that are likely better long term in the NFL? I never bought into Gabbert and thought he was more of a project than most of the other QB prospects like Jake Locker who went behind him. And if I were a Jaguars fan I would hope they draft another QB if they are in a position to do so. Is Gabbert a guy that is going to take a team to the Super bowl in the next 3-4 years? i don't see anything like that here. I know it's early but look at some of the other prospects in the same draft class. I would say he is behind Cam, Dalton, Locker, and maybe even Ponder at this point.
8. Miami (3-7): The Matt Moore show has been fun but this team has to draft a top QB prospect if they get a chance or the fan base will burn Joe Robbie Stadium to the ground. I really like Robert Griffin and his set of skills. He might not be Cam Newton but he has many of the same features. Miami though could be shut out if Luck, Barkley, and then Griffin off the board. I said we assume all 4 top QB prospects are coming out but what if Landry Jones stays in school and figures he will be the top pick the next year even if the money is not that much more? It really stinks as a Phinsfan but you cannot assume Miami will get a top prospect if they are picking 7th or lower in the draft. Times are changing and the incentive for teams is there now to take a many QB prospects as they can. I would not be surprise if Miami wins a few more games and ends up 6-10, completely out of the QB sweepstakes in April.
I haven't written a weekly in a long time and to be honest with you all I just have not had the time. I finished off college and have been working with pretty limited time. I just wanted to write this morning while my wife and mother in law are cooking and chasing me out of the kitchen. I hope all of you have a Happy Thanksgiving with your loved ones.
Cheers!
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Especially when you consider how Spags talks about Bradford. He thinks very highly of him...
