I have to admit, I've never been a big fan of the TE position. I always thought that you had either target Gonzo or Gates and if you didn't get them, everyone else pretty much puddled up in around the same area. Some weeks Donald Lee would score 12 points, the next he would score 3. The same could go for Chris Cooley with perhaps a slightly higer ceiling.
But the big scoring TE's have 2 new members (Witten & Winslow). You can find warts on just about anyone and anything so you could argue that Winslow could be unpredictable based on his QB's one year track record or that Witten simply can't produce like he did last year.
But someone posted something a few months back that stuck with me and I think it makes sense. In essense his point was "I want a weapon at that position". But overall, we can say that 600-700 yards & 4-5 TD's from your TE is acceptable and I've been accepting that for awhile. But once 'weeks of football' start happening and we move away from overall seasonal projections, 600-700 yards means 40 yard games on average with a 25-30% chance of a TD. Whoopee...
But if you secure a weapon like Gates/Gonzo/Winslow/Witten, it's not just about production at that point. It's about threat and ceiling. Can you honestly say that if he played the game of his life, Donald Lee could go off for 120 yards & 2TD's? You can't. But the 4 guys I mentioned have that ceiling. They might produce those numbers once every 2 years or so, but there is that possibility and they can certainly ring the 100/1 bell 2-3 times/season at least. And in leagues with 100 yard bonuses...?
I heard someone say, they'd rather get their 3rd RB that go up and get that elite TE. The question I would ask is this?
How often does a TE simply come out of nowhere and become an impact player? Now ask how often that happens at RB?
I mean even if Vernon Davis all of a sudden becomes a 1000/7 guy, how surprising would that be? He was the #6 overall pick 2 years ago. This is where he should be...
But Ryan Grant, Willie Parker, Frank Gore...even Justin Fargas...these guys pop up every year pretty much out of nowhere. To me, I want to try and hit the home runs in the draft and where I swing and miss, be astute on the waiver wire. Servicable TE's show up on the waiver wire, not elite ones...
This exactly describes my history with the TE position.I have the first pick in my 12 team, 3RR draft and have taken the latest FBG projections (as well as the free Yahoo projections - for whatever they are worth) and gone through several different scenarios to determine what combination would produce the highest scoring team.
Through all the different permutations, one thing remained constant: If I passed on one of the big 4 TEs, I could not make up the points in other positions to make it worth it.
I think the reason for this is pretty simple. There are about 4 quality TEs that can reasonably be expected to produce numbers similar to a WR2. There are a couple more that maybe will produce as a WR3, but that is pushing it. Once you are beyond the top few QBs, the next 10 are all within a point or two. More and more teams seem to be using a RBBC and there are many quality RBs available in the mid to late rounds this year.
Your later round TE will be lucky to produce 600 yards and 4 TDs. You wouldnt even think about having a WR on your roster with those stats. There is no other position that you can own by taking a guy in the 5th round.
I took Gates at 4.15 in a 16 team redraft over the weekend, and because I also took 3 WRs by the 5th (we start 48 every week), it was at the expense of my RB2. As long as he is healthy, I think it was worth it.
