Drafting with Guppies (1 Viewer)

[Couch Tater]

I am in a 10-team PPR league with mostly guppies. After five rounds most will have 1 QB, 2 RBs and 2 WRs.

In the past when I do all the research, set up Draft Dominator with current ADP, etc, the draft starts and

obviously my competitors didn't do the same research. I end up being deep at RB and WR at the expense of

being really weak at QB, TE and DEF.

My question is what is the best strategy with guppies. If I go heavy in RB's and WR's in the first five rounds

I will be stuck with Freeman at QB and Pettigrew at TE. It seems 10-team leagues are always about studs since

there isn't the scarcity issue like larger leagues. If I get a first five pick I'll take a Rb, If I get 6-10

I will probably go stud WR. Once they get their two starting RBs they will fill the other spots before they come

back for reserves which means I can load up on second and thrid tiew RB's and WR's while they are getting their

TEs. Last year I drafted from the fifth spot and ended up with Gore, Mathews, Best and Caddy as RB's. I felt I was

always chasing a run instead of starting one (and I was dumb enough to take two rookie RBs)

Is there a "guppie" adp to plug into draft dominator so I can try to anticipate better how to kill them in the draft?

Thanks for your help,

Roster: 2 QB, 4 RB, 4WR, 2TE, 1 DEF, 1 KI

Start: 1 QB, 2 RBS, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 DEF & 1 Ki

Passing TD 3pts, Rushing/Receiving TD 6pts, Def/Spec Teams TD 6pts, QB Sack 1pt,

Reception 1 pt, Defensive Turnover 2pts, Safety 2pts, PAT 1pt, 2pt Conversion 2 pts.

BONUS SCORING

Passing Yards 1 pt per 20 yards, Rushing/Receiving 1pt per 10 yards,

Field Goals 1-29 yds 3pts, 30-39 yds 4pts, 40-49 yds 5pts and 50+ yds 6pts

Defensive Points allowed 0 =10 pts, 2-5 =8pts, 6-10 =6pts, 11-15 =4pts, 15-20 =2pts

 

[mrip541]

I find that second tier RBs go later so it often pays to grab an extra wr early.

 

[Couch Tater]

In the first two rounds most will go RB-RB, RB-QB or RB-WR. What has screwed me up in the past

is to looks at typical ADP and expect the players I want to be there a round or two early. However,

when the QB run hits in the third round all ten teams will draft a QB. So if I wair for Ben at

a 6-7th round ADP.. not a chance. One guy will draft Gates in the third, but usually no other

TE will be taken until the 5th or 6th, but once the run starts, everybody gets one. That's where

don't maximize, is being the one to start the runs.

 

[solorca]

I usually see the same things when I draft with similar players. This year, I decided to just bite the bullet and take a QB in the third round (I ended up with Tony Romo), but I see a lot of late round sleepers at tight end, so I went with two upside guys and will hope that one sticks (I took Olsen and Gresham). If I need to trade for a tight end later, I have the depth at RB and WR to do so.

As for defense, this is one area that I always wait on and think I may have gotten burnt on this season. By the time I decided to pick a D, my top 13 were already drafted, and I was stuck with San Fran. I may decide to take one a round or two earlier next year, especially since I think that the WR's and RB's I was drafting late would have still been there if I took a defense earlier.

 

[FDC]

Considering its a 10 teamer with 1 pt = 10 pass yards I might reach on an elite QB too.

And if you are forced to carry 2QBs, 4 RBs, 4WRs 2TEs...

I'd go RB heavy early get an elite QB load up on WRs in the middle rounds and then get tight ends and backup QB as my last picks.

Something like RB RB QB WR WR RB RB WR WR TE TE QB

 

[Shane Falco]

If your drafting with guppies you really shouldn't need DD unless you are just barely a guppy as well.

use the force Luke

 

[Steed]

FBG has an epic article regarding this that was written 5-6 years ago.. I think it was called "Drafting with Guppies". QBs and big name rooks and vets go quick, but gups rarely have a feel for break out candidates like 2nd year players that lost their rookie shine.

 

[The Jerk]

There is a way to configure DD to adapt its baseline to any league tendencies.

In DD,

File – Setup -- VBD Baseline

Change VBD baseline to “User Configurable by Position Rank”

You can choose to enter whatever numbers you want in all relevant categories.

If it’s a “standard” league with no defense, you can enter the amount of QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, PKs, DTs that are typically drafted in x number of rounds.

For example, if you choose to look at the first 5 rounds, you could list perhaps 9-10 QBs, 20-21 RBs, 18-19 WRs, 1-2 TEs. Or you could look at the first 8 rounds and list 11-12 QBs, 27-28 RBs, 30-31 WRs, 8-9 TEs, 0-1 PKs, 1-2 DTs. If you have past draft records available, you can look at them to help come up with exact numbers.

Using five vs. eight rounds totals will change the baseline, but you could try both and see which one seems like the better choice. It’s even more important to tweak the numbers a little until you see that DD seems to have it right in terms of imitating your league.

Keep in mind that what you are using DD for is more about being able to predict which players will be drafted through a given round of your draft, excepting very unusual picks and understanding that different players will be drafted to get to the position totals you expect because other drafters are using other source material.

So DD will give you an idea of what your league as a whole will do. You will need to evaluate how much to vary from DD’s suggestions to optimize your team; otherwise, you will be drafting much more like your opponents.

 

[Couch Tater]

Was able to dig up that article. It described most of my other players to a tee. What it really tells you is they are predictable in

some ways and unpredictable in others. Last year was typical, all the usual stud RB's and a couple of QBs in rd 1. AJ didn't get picked

until 11 and Megatron 29. So rounds 1-2 was mostly RB's and then QBs. Rds 3-4 were mostly WRs, RB2s and the start of a TE run.

I can zig where they zag with the RB's and WR's in the first couple of rounds. I have to decide whether in the third to get a top WR2 or

RB2 is worth the difference between a Brady, Romo, Manning vs a Schaub, Stafford, Freeman in the 7-9th rds. Once the other nine have their QBs in

the 2-3 then I can wait a long time to grab one.

What happened to me last year is I was always chasing runs instead of starting them. maybe that's what you get for having a middle pick. By getting Gore

at 1.5 I was already at a disadvantage with four other teams. In round two I blew it on Mathews. Round three was BMarsh and he didn't live up to his ADP.

I won the league but had to dominate through free agents and trades and got lucky on picking up Vick and Hillis. That was stressful and ate up a big chunk

of my winnings.

I'm just frustrated becasue I felt like I should have dominated the draft against guys using magazines and picking their favorite homer players.

Jay

 

[The Jerk]

Was able to dig up that article. It described most of my other players to a tee. What it really tells you is they are predictable insome ways and unpredictable in others. Last year was typical, all the usual stud RB's and a couple of QBs in rd 1. AJ didn't get picked until 11 and Megatron 29. So rounds 1-2 was mostly RB's and then QBs. Rds 3-4 were mostly WRs, RB2s and the start of a TE run. I can zig where they zag with the RB's and WR's in the first couple of rounds. I have to decide whether in the third to get a top WR2 or RB2 is worth the difference between a Brady, Romo, Manning vs a Schaub, Stafford, Freeman in the 7-9th rds. Once the other nine have their QBs in the 2-3 then I can wait a long time to grab one.What happened to me last year is I was always chasing runs instead of starting them. maybe that's what you get for having a middle pick. By getting Gore at 1.5 I was already at a disadvantage with four other teams. In round two I blew it on Mathews. Round three was BMarsh and he didn't live up to his ADP. I won the league but had to dominate through free agents and trades and got lucky on picking up Vick and Hillis. That was stressful and ate up a big chunkof my winnings.I'm just frustrated becasue I felt like I should have dominated the draft against guys using magazines and picking their favorite homer players.Jay

There is no doubt that you cannot and should not draft the same way in a league that has several casual players and some FBG types compared to a league with a bunch of Shark Pool regulars.I'm entering my 20th draft in my most important (to me) and longest-running league. I scout my opponents and know that two owners always draft a QB in the first round (unusual scoring, not a bad move) and then a WR in the 2nd round. Another always goes best RB-RB in the first two rounds. Two owners always wait until at least the 5th round for a QB, and then there are a few owners who vary their pattern, in some cases due to wise strategy and in other cases they seem to me to be behind the curve.If you have past drafts, you can look at owner tendencies which can become very useful in forming your overall big picture draft plan and of course when dealing with individual decisions in the early rounds of your draft.

 

[Ariakis]

I may do worst starter method. Basically know that QB's will go early and in bunches and runs are more common as they reach for next best at a position. The way to "win" is probably QB early then BPA and know who your sleepers are. Try to start a run or know where you are in draft position ... if there are 20 picks between your picks around when QB's or TE's are projected by ADP to go you WILL miss the run. You can probably go Jimmy Graham and Stafford late or just take the QB/TE plunge in the 2nd/3rd.

 

[guderian]

FBG has an epic article regarding this that was written 5-6 years ago.. I think it was called "Drafting with Guppies". QBs and big name rooks and vets go quick, but gups rarely have a feel for break out candidates like 2nd year players that lost their rookie shine.

That was an excellent article that helped me out a lot with a work league. -Don't draft too many RBs early--there will be plenty of steals left later. If you assemble a monster RB corps you'll find that no one will trade for you and you'll be weak at other positions.-Guppies fill out their rosters before they draft back-ups.-Guppies get caught up in runs. If you draft during the turn, you may think you can wait a round and grab Rivers as your QB, but when it gets back to you, you'll be looking at Stafford and Manning. In general you have to balance out your roster and ignore the fact that your cheatsheet is screaming at you to take Forte in the 3rd or 4th round after you already have 2 stud RBs. For the most part, draft starters and then count on some big values being available later in the draft. Remember that they don't look at value in the same way and you'll never be able to trade away your depth at RB to fill in weaknesses at other positions.

 

[sho nuff]

So...they are guppies because they don't draft just like you think they should...and that leaves you weak at some positions and now you need more advice?

Seems more like you are the guppy in this situation.

 

[Couch Tater]

Thanks for all your imput.

Would any of you adjust your settings on draft dominator

1. VDB (Joes, worst starter, etc)

2. ADP which will effect the "Best Value" screen and drop off

That's where I got confused last year when the guys went against standard practice DD was suggesting

picks that didn't make sense in this league. Unfortunatley I have not kept the pick history from prior

drafts. I will start that this year.

Jay

 

[Reepicheep]

A few years ago my league had similar tendencies. As others have said I've found that (depending on your draft slot), it's better to just reach a little ADP-wise to start a QB or TE run and reap the rewards at your next pick after some reach at the end of the run.

 

[Tony Reali]

If you are calling the "guppies", why do you need the DD? Shouldn't you be able to annihilate them yourself without assistance?ETA: Here's the guppy article:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/06freelance_mcindoe01.phpThe RB section really stood out to me. I did some mock drafts this year and could end up with Ryan at QB, and Rice, SJax, and Forte at RB but I would have average to below average WRs and my bench would be 5 RBs deep (names like Hightower, tate, daniel thomas) and only 2 WRs deep. You really have to avoid taking so many good RBs early. Even when you see a name like Forte there in the 3rd with 2 great RBs already, go for the Wallace or Nicks if still there.

You happily snap up Clinton Portis with your first round pick. After a quick QB run, you're overjoyed to see Rudi Johnson still somehow on the board at 2.07 and grab him too.

 

[dagwood]

If you are calling the "guppies", why do you need the DD? Shouldn't you be able to annihilate them yourself without assistance?

No. I think they are calling him a Guppy and he is trying fight back.

 

[dagwood]

Give the guy a break.

He had a crappy draft last year and lucked out and won the title because we got the Vick/Hillis lottery tickets.

But it appears his league mates are not giving him the respect he thinks he deserves.

Go get'm this year. Show them who is boss.

 

[karmarooster]

Because you can find better value at RB and WR with guppies, it pays to go after an Elite QB and an Elite TE early on. This is true in 10 team leagues as well, so both factors point in that direction. Try to grab one of Rodgers/Vick/Brady/Rivers/Romo/Brees + Gates/Finley. Use your FBGs skills to grab late-mid round value esp. at WR.

 

[dagwood]

Because you can find better value at RB and WR with guppies, it pays to go after an Elite QB and an Elite TE early on. This is true in 10 team leagues as well, so both factors point in that direction. Try to grab one of Rodgers/Vick/Brady/Rivers/Romo/Brees + Gates/Finley. Use your FBGs skills to grab late-mid round value esp. at WR.

True dat.

 

[Tony Reali]

Because you can find better value at RB and WR with guppies, it pays to go after an Elite QB and an Elite TE early on. This is true in 10 team leagues as well, so both factors point in that direction. Try to grab one of Rodgers/Vick/Brady/Rivers/Romo/Brees + Gates/Finley. Use your FBGs skills to grab late-mid round value esp. at WR.

Do you consider Matt Ryan to be elite or at least above average? Because in (guppy) mock drafts Matt Ryan can still be had in the 6th round or later (possibly after getting 3-4 stud RBs or WRs) and I've seen Jimmy Graham dropping into the 8th or 9th round.I also look at ADPs and I'm shocked at how often I suddenly see a name come off the board at pick #100 I thought would have been gone in the 70s, and it happens constantly

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I am in a 10-team PPR league with mostly guppies. After five rounds most will have 1 QB, 2 RBs and 2 WRs.In the past when I do all the research, set up Draft Dominator with current ADP, etc, the draft starts andobviously my competitors didn't do the same research. I end up being deep at RB and WR at the expense ofbeing really weak at QB, TE and DEF. My question is what is the best strategy with guppies. If I go heavy in RB's and WR's in the first five roundsI will be stuck with Freeman at QB and Pettigrew at TE. It seems 10-team leagues are always about studs since there isn't the scarcity issue like larger leagues. If I get a first five pick I'll take a Rb, If I get 6-10I will probably go stud WR. Once they get their two starting RBs they will fill the other spots before they comeback for reserves which means I can load up on second and thrid tiew RB's and WR's while they are getting their TEs. Last year I drafted from the fifth spot and ended up with Gore, Mathews, Best and Caddy as RB's. I felt I wasalways chasing a run instead of starting one (and I was dumb enough to take two rookie RBs) Is there a "guppie" adp to plug into draft dominator so I can try to anticipate better how to kill them in the draft?Thanks for your help,Roster: 2 QB, 4 RB, 4WR, 2TE, 1 DEF, 1 KIStart: 1 QB, 2 RBS, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 DEF & 1 Ki Passing TD 3pts, Rushing/Receiving TD 6pts, Def/Spec Teams TD 6pts, QB Sack 1pt, Reception 1 pt, Defensive Turnover 2pts, Safety 2pts, PAT 1pt, 2pt Conversion 2 pts.BONUS SCORINGPassing Yards 1 pt per 10 yards, Rushing/Receiving 1pt per 10 yards, Field Goals 1-29 yds 3pts, 30-39 yds 4pts, 40-49 yds 5pts and 50+ yds 6ptsDefensive Points allowed 0 =10 pts, 2-5 =8pts, 6-10 =6pts, 11-15 =4pts, 15-20 =2pts

Excellent thread topic, just drafted in a 10 team league lat night and you're right...studs studs and more studs please. Since these guys don't take RBs and WRs that early, you might want to step out there and grab a top5 QB. I would likely get the QB, then come back in the 2nd and 3rd scooping up a couple of RBs in the top12-15, WRs on the 4/5 turn, and I would be flexible to allow a QB you like at the QB2 spot, if one falls that you like scoop him up. 3 its per pass TD does limit the somewhat. Still though, probably best if you can grab a top5 RB early, then maybe QB-QB on the 2/3 turn. Good Luck

 

[Jail]

Roster: 2 QB, 4 RB, 4WR, 2TE, 1 DEF, 1 KIStart: 1 QB, 2 RBS, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 DEF & 1 Ki Passing TD 3pts, Rushing/Receiving TD 6pts, Def/Spec Teams TD 6pts, QB Sack 1pt, Reception 1 pt, Defensive Turnover 2pts, Safety 2pts, PAT 1pt, 2pt Conversion 2 pts.BONUS SCORINGPassing Yards 1 pt per 10 yards, Rushing/Receiving 1pt per 10 yards, Field Goals 1-29 yds 3pts, 30-39 yds 4pts, 40-49 yds 5pts and 50+ yds 6ptsDefensive Points allowed 0 =10 pts, 2-5 =8pts, 6-10 =6pts, 11-15 =4pts, 15-20 =2pts

Quirky scoring for Qbs. On one side it makes the Qbs that run for TDs like Vick and Freeman more valuable, but then the high points per yardage kind of evens it out. Without doing too much calculating it looks to me like Vick would be particularly valuable. Like others have said, getting an elite QB & TE is vital in 10 team guppy leagues. I'd also add that with only 20 starting WR in your league you can probably wait a pretty long time on grabbing your WR2. I wouldn't wait long on WR1 though cause you gotta have top notch players in 10 team leagues. WR2 is easier to fill, IMO.

 

[DexterDew]

in a 12 teamer last night had the #2 Pick and watched 6 QBs go off the board in the first round after me. Wasn't shocked since it happens every year, just made sure I grabbed studs everywhere else (and still got Stafford and Bradford).

Lots of value falls so no reason to fill up all your RB or WR spots.

 

[Couch Tater]

We just drew for draft order and I got #7. I'm sure the six picks before me will be AP, Rice, Foster, McCoy, Charles and either Vick or CJ. I will end up with the

Charles, CJ, AJ or Mendy option. The six picks until I pick again will probably get 2-3 RBS, 2 QBS and 1-2 WRs. There I will probably be looking at MJD, DMac, Forte

or White, Fitz, Nicks. Would you go RB-RB and go for the WR depth in rounds 3-4 or WR-WR and go for the RB depth in rounds 3-4, or mix it up?

If CJ doesn't sign by our draft next Tuesday, do you take him if available at #7?

Jay

 

[Ministry of Pain]

We just drew for draft order and I got #7. I'm sure the six picks before me will be AP, Rice, Foster, McCoy, Charles and either Vick or CJ. I will end up with theCharles, CJ, AJ or Mendy option. The six picks until I pick again will probably get 2-3 RBS, 2 QBS and 1-2 WRs. There I will probably be looking at MJD, DMac, Forte or White, Fitz, Nicks. Would you go RB-RB and go for the WR depth in rounds 3-4 or WR-WR and go for the RB depth in rounds 3-4, or mix it up? If CJ doesn't sign by our draft next Tuesday, do you take him if available at #7?Jay

Dude, he signed today 4yr/$53m...he won't be there at 7 so cross him off your list.

 

[ponchsox]

If CJ doesn't sign by our draft next Tuesday, do you take him if available at #7?Jay

CJ signed today

 

[Tchula]

Up passing TDs and points for passing yards, and DD should make QB's come off the board sooner. If that doesnt work, try adding in say.25 points per pass completion

 

[Tony Reali]

I THINK the top 6 will be...

I'm not a shark so take this with a grain of salt, but his season's draft seem to have this problem. Basically right now, the top 4 or so is set with AP/foster/CJ/rice. After this, there are like 6-8 players all grouped together who are probably more end of 1st round/beginning of 2nd round grades, but you have to reach for them with the 6-10 picks. Mendenhall, Charles, Vick, Rodgers, Andre, Calvin, Nicks, Fitz, McFadden, MJD all seem to fit this category.This is why I would rather have either a top 5 pick, or probably end of the round pick, not so much a mid-round pick

 

[Ian F]

As always the solution is not clear cut but I agree with some of the sentiments above that amount to this for 2011

1) Be prepared to take a QB early (prob round 4 or 5 at latest) so you get a top 7-8 guy

2) Wait on TE unless you get a stud falling a lot (to me all the studs have too many ?? this year and going early TE AND early QB makes it hard on the critical WR/RB positions - even more true in non PPR of course)

3) Read the draft as it unfolds to determine your best round by round selection for RB vs WR

E.g. I found one draft recently where I ended up with 2 stud WRs early and knew I could get Holmes a later (who i'm really high on) This allowed me to go RB crazy in the mid to later rounds since I was more comfortable with my WR starters than my RB ones

 

[Couch Tater]

My guess is AP, Rice, CJ, Foster, McCoy and either Charles, Mendy or Vick will go before me. I'll have to chose between Mendy/Charles or AJ. I would prefer Menday (Better QB that KC, better line than KC and playoff games at SF and Home vs STL. Potentially the Foster hammy could drop him here. I think I would still prefer Mendy over , AJ, Charles or Foster at that point.

I would expect to be able to chose between Calvin, White, Fitz or MJD, Hillis, SJax at 2.4.

Round three is when the QB run usually starts. If I wait I have a 50/50 chance to still being able to big Ben in the 4th. All other players usually have a QB by my 3.7 pick. If for some reason the QB run is only half done by my 3.7 pick and I can get Rivers or Romo I might bite. Then I go for the best RB/WR available in round four hoping for a Turner, Dwill, or Tampa Mike, Lloyd, or Djax.

If I end up with a Mendy, White, Romo DWill, I'd be Ok with that.

Jay

 

[Limp Ditka]

If CJ doesn't sign by our draft next Tuesday, do you take him if available at #7?Jay

CJ signed today

Looks like there's one more guppy in this draft than the OP originally thought.

 

[karmarooster]

Because you can find better value at RB and WR with guppies, it pays to go after an Elite QB and an Elite TE early on. This is true in 10 team leagues as well, so both factors point in that direction. Try to grab one of Rodgers/Vick/Brady/Rivers/Romo/Brees + Gates/Finley. Use your FBGs skills to grab late-mid round value esp. at WR.

Do you consider Matt Ryan to be elite or at least above average? Because in (guppy) mock drafts Matt Ryan can still be had in the 6th round or later (possibly after getting 3-4 stud RBs or WRs) and I've seen Jimmy Graham dropping into the 8th or 9th round.I also look at ADPs and I'm shocked at how often I suddenly see a name come off the board at pick #100 I thought would have been gone in the 70s, and it happens constantly

In a 12 team league I would be perfectly willing to take a risk on Ryan, but in a 10 team league I see him as only above average. The smaller the league, the more important it is to have studs at EVERY position. The larger the league, the more important it is to have depth at RB and WR.

Roster: 2 QB, 4 RB, 4WR, 2TE, 1 DEF, 1 KIStart: 1 QB, 2 RBS, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 DEF & 1 Ki Passing TD 3pts, Rushing/Receiving TD 6pts, Def/Spec Teams TD 6pts, QB Sack 1pt, Reception 1 pt, Defensive Turnover 2pts, Safety 2pts, PAT 1pt, 2pt Conversion 2 pts.BONUS SCORINGPassing Yards 1 pt per 10 yards, Rushing/Receiving 1pt per 10 yards, Field Goals 1-29 yds 3pts, 30-39 yds 4pts, 40-49 yds 5pts and 50+ yds 6ptsDefensive Points allowed 0 =10 pts, 2-5 =8pts, 6-10 =6pts, 11-15 =4pts, 15-20 =2pts

Quirky scoring for Qbs. On one side it makes the Qbs that run for TDs like Vick and Freeman more valuable, but then the high points per yardage kind of evens it out. Without doing too much calculating it looks to me like Vick would be particularly valuable. Like others have said, getting an elite QB & TE is vital in 10 team guppy leagues. I'd also add that with only 20 starting WR in your league you can probably wait a pretty long time on grabbing your WR2. I wouldn't wait long on WR1 though cause you gotta have top notch players in 10 team leagues. WR2 is easier to fill, IMO.

Wow I didn't notice that scoring system before I posted... 3 pts/passing TD is very low, but 1 pt/10 yards passing is VERY high. With that in mind, I would be looking for yardage monsters and forget about rushing yards. It's MUCH easier to pass for 10 yards than throw, and aside Rodgers and Vick, Rushing TDs aren't a huge factor. QB Targets given the scoring: Brady, Rivers, Brees, Romo, Schaub. You really want someone who will go well beyond 4,000 yards.

 

[bengalbuck]

I am in a 10-team PPR league with mostly guppies. After five rounds most will have 1 QB, 2 RBs and 2 WRs.In the past when I do all the research, set up Draft Dominator with current ADP, etc, the draft starts andobviously my competitors didn't do the same research. I end up being deep at RB and WR at the expense ofbeing really weak at QB, TE and DEF. My question is what is the best strategy with guppies. If I go heavy in RB's and WR's in the first five roundsI will be stuck with Freeman at QB and Pettigrew at TE. It seems 10-team leagues are always about studs since there isn't the scarcity issue like larger leagues. If I get a first five pick I'll take a Rb, If I get 6-10I will probably go stud WR. Once they get their two starting RBs they will fill the other spots before they comeback for reserves which means I can load up on second and thrid tiew RB's and WR's while they are getting their TEs. Last year I drafted from the fifth spot and ended up with Gore, Mathews, Best and Caddy as RB's. I felt I wasalways chasing a run instead of starting one (and I was dumb enough to take two rookie RBs) Is there a "guppie" adp to plug into draft dominator so I can try to anticipate better how to kill them in the draft?Thanks for your help,Roster: 2 QB, 4 RB, 4WR, 2TE, 1 DEF, 1 KIStart: 1 QB, 2 RBS, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 DEF & 1 Ki Passing TD 3pts, Rushing/Receiving TD 6pts, Def/Spec Teams TD 6pts, QB Sack 1pt, Reception 1 pt, Defensive Turnover 2pts, Safety 2pts, PAT 1pt, 2pt Conversion 2 pts.BONUS SCORINGPassing Yards 1 pt per 10 yards, Rushing/Receiving 1pt per 10 yards, Field Goals 1-29 yds 3pts, 30-39 yds 4pts, 40-49 yds 5pts and 50+ yds 6ptsDefensive Points allowed 0 =10 pts, 2-5 =8pts, 6-10 =6pts, 11-15 =4pts, 15-20 =2pts

Excellent thread topic, just drafted in a 10 team league lat night and you're right...studs studs and more studs please. Since these guys don't take RBs and WRs that early, you might want to step out there and grab a top5 QB. I would likely get the QB, then come back in the 2nd and 3rd scooping up a couple of RBs in the top12-15, WRs on the 4/5 turn, and I would be flexible to allow a QB you like at the QB2 spot, if one falls that you like scoop him up. 3 its per pass TD does limit the somewhat. Still though, probably best if you can grab a top5 RB early, then maybe QB-QB on the 2/3 turn. Good Luck

This is where I'm leaning right now as well. If I was playing with a bunch of guys who really knew what they were doing, I'd be scared to death of taking a QB early. However, I'm thinking it might be worth going QB early as I feel comfortable that the Brady, Brees, Rivers, Manning, Romo types will fly off the board in the first 2 rounds which means I can still get a couple very good RBs and then focus in on the value at WR/backup RB in the mid-rounds.I was in a recent draft with a bunch of guys who knew what they were doing and one guy went Rodgers in the top 5. Vick fell to the last pick of the 2nd. Then there wasn't another QB taken until the mid-late 5th round. It really hurt the guy who took Rodgers and I don't think you can take QB in the 1st in these type of leagues. There's not the same penalty in a league of less knowledgeable fantasy players where the QBs fly off the board early and often.Another thing I've noticed is that in some of these types of leagues, guys will draft a Tom Brady early and then take a backup in the 5th or 6th round...If you're waiting assuming you're going to automatically get the 12th best QB as the only team without a starter, you can really get burned by a backup QB run way too early.

 

[loose circuits]

10 team league with that shallow of rosters and I'm going QB early to get the good one. I drafted with 'guppies' the other night. Drew #2 overall and here is how it went.

1: Rodgers

2: Fitz

3: Roddy White

4: McFadden

5: Finley

6: Deangelo

7: Mannigham

8: Daniels (TE friendly scoring)

9: Hightower

10: Eagles D

11: Winslow

12: Orton

13: Vinatieri

14: Texans D

if I respected my competition, there is no way I woudl have gone Rodgers early. However, I knew that I would be able to steal RB's later. With only 40 RB/WR's owned in that league there will be some on the wire all the time

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This is where I'm leaning right now as well. If I was playing with a bunch of guys who really knew what they were doing, I'd be scared to death of taking a QB early. However, I'm thinking it might be worth going QB early as I feel comfortable that the Brady, Brees, Rivers, Manning, Romo types will fly off the board in the first 2 rounds which means I can still get a couple very good RBs and then focus in on the value at WR/backup RB in the mid-rounds.I was in a recent draft with a bunch of guys who knew what they were doing and one guy went Rodgers in the top 5. Vick fell to the last pick of the 2nd. Then there wasn't another QB taken until the mid-late 5th round. It really hurt the guy who took Rodgers and I don't think you can take QB in the 1st in these type of leagues. There's not the same penalty in a league of less knowledgeable fantasy players where the QBs fly off the board early and often.Another thing I've noticed is that in some of these types of leagues, guys will draft a Tom Brady early and then take a backup in the 5th or 6th round...If you're waiting assuming you're going to automatically get the 12th best QB as the only team without a starter, you can really get burned by a backup QB run way too early.

We had an owner last night go QB 3 times in the 1st 6 rounds...Brees, Big Ben, and someone else. Just a waste as we only start 1. And the rest of his team is flimsy, whatever, his money he can do what he wants.

 

[Manster]

Was able to dig up that article. It described most of my other players to a tee. What it really tells you is they are predictable in

some ways and unpredictable in others. Last year was typical, all the usual stud RB's and a couple of QBs in rd 1. AJ didn't get picked

until 11 and Megatron 29. So rounds 1-2 was mostly RB's and then QBs. Rds 3-4 were mostly WRs, RB2s and the start of a TE run.

I can zig where they zag with the RB's and WR's in the first couple of rounds. I have to decide whether in the third to get a top WR2 or

RB2 is worth the difference between a Brady, Romo, Manning vs a Schaub, Stafford, Freeman in the 7-9th rds. Once the other nine have their QBs in

the 2-3 then I can wait a long time to grab one.

What happened to me last year is I was always chasing runs instead of starting them. maybe that's what you get for having a middle pick. By getting Gore

at 1.5 I was already at a disadvantage with four other teams. In round two I blew it on Mathews. Round three was BMarsh and he didn't live up to his ADP.

I won the league but had to dominate through free agents and trades and got lucky on picking up Vick and Hillis. That was stressful and ate up a big chunk

of my winnings.

I'm just frustrated becasue I felt like I should have dominated the draft against guys using magazines and picking their favorite homer players.

Jay

A few thoughts:In one of my leagues, I know I can spend the first several rounds getting studs at RB/WR/QB and possibly TE. IMO, this is a good strategy when you are drafting with "guppies" or guys who might make head scratcher picks. As the draft goes on guys who dont research will not know whats what, and there will be lots of value for depth.

you know, sometimes these guys luck into good teams. And there is a lot of luck in FF, obviously.

sometimes "sharks" overthink, or make things too complicated.

The WW, over time, will separate the good fantasy owners from the bad.

I'd rather play with my buddies and their quirks(some guppies, some not) than a bunch of sharks or guppies for that matter, i dont know. talking ####e with people i dont know aint the same.

have fun, dont overthink it.

 

[Couch Tater]

After some you mentioning the unusual QB scoring for my league I noticed I have a typo. It's 1 pt for every 20 yards passing.

Jay

 

[McJose]

A few years ago this guppy sat next to me at the draft. He kept trying to peek at my laptop screen right before we started. I finally told him to knock it off. He just laughed. He picked right before me in the 2nd round. He took Portis who just happened to be the next guy on my list. I didn't say a word. After the 5th round we took a break. This guppy went outside with a few other guys to have a smoke. I calmly walked out there and took off my jersey and cap and handed them to one of the other guys. Somebody asked me "what are you doing?" I told him "Me and this guy are going to have a little chat about stealing picks after they look at someone's cheetsheet." Then I stepped into my Kendo stance and stared him down. The guppy looked like he was going to crud in his pants. After a minute he said "sorry about that". I shook my head at him and put my stuff back on.

 

[HMKRich]

10 team league with that shallow of rosters and I'm going QB early to get the good one. I drafted with 'guppies' the other night. Drew #2 overall and here is how it went.1: Rodgers2: Fitz3: Roddy White4: McFadden5: Finley6: Deangelo7: Mannigham8: Daniels (TE friendly scoring)9: Hightower10: Eagles D11: Winslow12: Orton13: Vinatieri14: Texans Dif I respected my competition, there is no way I woudl have gone Rodgers early. However, I knew that I would be able to steal RB's later. With only 40 RB/WR's owned in that league there will be some on the wire all the time

With the rest of your lineup, DMC and DWill= money.I'm at 7 in a 10 man league filled with guppies. In last year's draft, the first QB run was between 2.1 and 3.9. The second QB run that the guppies are gonna do is around 7-9, so I feel like getting a top QB is essential. My goal is to get in early on the QB run (I'd love to start it, actually) and force it to continue. I think that's the best way to make sure there's still good position players at the 3.7 pick.FWIW, my favorite thing about drafting with guppies is how much psychology you can use. It's more about out thinking people rather than out VBD-ing them.Re: guppie ADP, here's last year's first 7 rounds. Snake, 10 man, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE and a RB/WR/TE flex. Standard scoring, except that QBs get 6 points for TDs and no interception penalty. The 6 point TDs make the QBs come off the board early, but I think the 0 point INTs actually make the elites less elite. At any rate, I think this is pretty typical of the patterns (and randomness) of guppies. FYI, I picked 8th.Adrian Peterson 1.1Chris JohnsonDrew BreesRay RiceMaurice Jones-DrewMichael TurnerCedric BensonFrank GoreShonn GreenDeAngelo Williams 1.10Aaron Rodgers 2.1Andre JohnsonSteven JacksonPeyton Manningrashard MendenhallRyan MathewsThomas JonesJonathan StewartRyan GrantPhillip Rivers 2.10Ronnie Brown 3.1Matt SchaubJamaal CharlesJoseph AddaiTom BradyTony RomoPierre ThomasRandy MossJoe FlaccoBeanie Wells 3.1CJ Spiller 4.1Dallas ClarkCalvin JohnsonDeshawn JacksonReggie WayneLarry FitzgeraldBrandon MarshallGreg JenningsMiles AustinMarques Colston 4.10Antonio Gates 5.1Roddy WhiteSteve SmithChad OchocincoMatt Forte Jason WhittenVernon DavisJahvid BestFelix JonesSidney Rice 5.10Anquan Boldin 6.1Mike WallaceLeSean McCoyArian FosterCarson PalmerKnowshon MorenoJay CutlerBrandon JacobsJermichael FinleyMarion Barber 6.10Steve Smith (NYG) 7.1Vincent JacksonWes WelkerRicky WilliamsTony GonzalezTJ HoushmandzadehPierre GarconMichael BushDonald DriverOwen Daniels

 

[karmarooster]

After some you mentioning the unusual QB scoring for my league I noticed I have a typo. It's 1 pt for every 20 yards passing.Jay

Ah well in that case, QB scoring is pretty low. 3pts/passing TD + 1pt/20 yards passing is a little high for yardage but very low for TDs. As such I would de-prioritize QBs, because you can find decent yardage guys much later on (Eli manning for example who has thrown for 4,000 yards). I don't usually like him but with QB scoring as such it's not important. Schaub also comes to mind as a high yardage but on the cheap kind of guy.Target elite talent at RB, WR, and TE in the first 5-6 rounds, with the least emphasis on WR2 (you only start 2 and there will be tons of talent left given the small league size), unless you can get an underrated stud early. I would make SURE that you get one of Gates or Finley.

 

[Couch Tater]

Well we had our draft. As usual the RB's flew off the board. So I took AJ at #7 and Hillis at #14. VJax was waiting at #27 and Felix at #34.

Six QB's were gone by #47 so I took Romo. My team is below. I'm counting on Felix or Ingram to step up to cover the disadvantage I have at

RB as compared to the guys with the first six picks. I'm concerned if AJ or VJax gets hurt, I'm counting on a Rookie WR to step up. Overall I

feel pretty good about this team. The old school guy in me nervous about my #1 RB being Hillis.

Thanks for your input (good or bad). These guys were just as unpredictable as ever. (Four TE's were taken in the third round).

Romo, Freeman

Hillis, Jones, Ingram, Wells

A Johnson, V Jackson, Julio Jones, AJ Green

Daniels, Hernandez

Suisham, Tynes

Pittsburgh, NYG

 

[Shane Falco]

Well we had our draft. As usual the RB's flew off the board. So I took AJ at #7 and Hillis at #14. VJax was waiting at #27 and Felix at #34. Six QB's were gone by #47 so I took Romo. My team is below. I'm counting on Felix or Ingram to step up to cover the disadvantage I have atRB as compared to the guys with the first six picks. I'm concerned if AJ or VJax gets hurt, I'm counting on a Rookie WR to step up. Overall I feel pretty good about this team. The old school guy in me nervous about my #1 RB being Hillis.Thanks for your input (good or bad). These guys were just as unpredictable as ever. (Four TE's were taken in the third round).Romo, FreemanHillis, Jones, Ingram, WellsA Johnson, V Jackson, Julio Jones, AJ GreenDaniels, HernandezSuisham, TynesPittsburgh, NYG

#1 RB- Hillis2 rookie WRs (not 1 but 2)who is the guppy again?

 

[Gr00vus]

Well we had our draft. As usual the RB's flew off the board. So I took AJ at #7 and Hillis at #14. VJax was waiting at #27 and Felix at #34. Six QB's were gone by #47 so I took Romo. My team is below. I'm counting on Felix or Ingram to step up to cover the disadvantage I have atRB as compared to the guys with the first six picks. I'm concerned if AJ or VJax gets hurt, I'm counting on a Rookie WR to step up. Overall I feel pretty good about this team. The old school guy in me nervous about my #1 RB being Hillis.Thanks for your input (good or bad). These guys were just as unpredictable as ever. (Four TE's were taken in the third round).Romo, FreemanHillis, Jones, Ingram, WellsA Johnson, V Jackson, Julio Jones, AJ GreenDaniels, HernandezSuisham, TynesPittsburgh, NYG

#1 RB- Hillis2 rookie WRs (not 1 but 2)who is the guppy again?

His team looks pretty good to me. It's a start 2 WR league, there are worse gambles for backups than Jones and Green, and if they don't work out, the waiver wire should be plentiful in a 10 team league.

 

[dagwood]

Well we had our draft. As usual the RB's flew off the board. So I took AJ at #7 and Hillis at #14. VJax was waiting at #27 and Felix at #34. Six QB's were gone by #47 so I took Romo. My team is below. I'm counting on Felix or Ingram to step up to cover the disadvantage I have atRB as compared to the guys with the first six picks. I'm concerned if AJ or VJax gets hurt, I'm counting on a Rookie WR to step up. Overall I feel pretty good about this team. The old school guy in me nervous about my #1 RB being Hillis.Thanks for your input (good or bad). These guys were just as unpredictable as ever. (Four TE's were taken in the third round).Romo, FreemanHillis, Jones, Ingram, WellsA Johnson, V Jackson, Julio Jones, AJ GreenDaniels, HernandezSuisham, TynesPittsburgh, NYG

#1 RB- Hillis2 rookie WRs (not 1 but 2)who is the guppy again?

His team looks pretty good to me. It's a start 2 WR league, there are worse gambles for backups than Jones and Green, and if they don't work out, the waiver wire should be plentiful in a 10 team league.

The team is rather average for a 10 team league. Probably more an indication that the separation in drafting ability between "OP the Shark" and his 9 Guppy friends is not as big as he thought. More a compliment to the other guppies than a slam to OP. With some luck and some good waiver pickups he can still contend.

 

[Couch Tater]

You are right. The "Guppy" probably move was taking AJ instead of MJD or Mendy at #7-- I still would have had

my choice of Fitz/Nicks seven picks later or gone RB-RB with Hillis or Gore. It is debatable whether in a PPR

league the combined difference between AJ/Hillis is significantly less than MJD-Mendy/Fitz-Nicks, but I see

your point.

As far as the two Rookie back up WRs. Both have upside, but as we all know rookie WR's usually are either bad

or inconsistent. The best I can hope for is a Dez Bryant type of performance. I figue I have two shots at

that and I would take it for a non-starter roster spot. Aslo in our ten-team league there will

be FA's available and if neither preforms I should be able to trade from one of my other strengths.

Still I like this team vs the other best teams except team 1.

Pick #1 AP, Forte, Calvin, BMarsh, Ben or

Pick #2 Foster, Bradshaw, Nicks, Austin and Vick, or

Pick #5 Charles, Turner, Wallace, Tampa Mike, Brees.

 

[firstseason1988]

If your drafting with guppies you really shouldn't need DD unless you are just barely a guppy as well.use the force Luke

Personally, I use the DD as a guide and a tiebreaker. I try to make my mistakes on my own therefore my victories will be that much sweeter, but often times you are deciding between about 10 guys and the DD is a good guide.

 

[AngryPatriot]

On sites like MFL and RTsports the top ADP players are ranked right there on the live draft board. I don't think it (that info) should be there but the days of the "shark" totally dominating are long gone. Having insights, details, latest info, waiver wire moves... can help lead to victory, sometimes, but a monkey could sit there and round out a team using info that's right in front of their faces.

 

[Couch Tater]

After choosing to not take the 7th best RB at #7 I was expecting the six picks until my next one would start grabbing WRs and Rogers and/or Vick. Nope they mostly went RB.

So at #14 DD is screaming Hillis (Their #7 ranked PPR RB). I still don't know if I would have rather had Gore, Turner, Forte or SJax. I could have gone for Calvin or Nicks

and had a decent chance at one of those RBs at my next pick, but it was 13 picks away. I felt I had to go RB and was happy to still get VJax six picks later.

 

[killrobotkill]

If you are calling the "guppies", why do you need the DD? Shouldn't you be able to annihilate them yourself without assistance?ETA: Here's the guppy article:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/06freelance_mcindoe01.phpThe RB section really stood out to me. I did some mock drafts this year and could end up with Ryan at QB, and Rice, SJax, and Forte at RB but I would have average to below average WRs and my bench would be 5 RBs deep (names like Hightower, tate, daniel thomas) and only 2 WRs deep. You really have to avoid taking so many good RBs early. Even when you see a name like Forte there in the 3rd with 2 great RBs already, go for the Wallace or Nicks if still there.

You happily snap up Clinton Portis with your first round pick. After a quick QB run, you're overjoyed to see Rudi Johnson still somehow on the board at 2.07 and grab him too.

My vote for Best Quote Of The Article goes to...

You find yourself muttering the words "With my fourth pick, I take Jake Plummer".