Dwyer: Is it time to buy low in dynasty leagues (1 Viewer)

[Chazzhawk]

I think it is, Mendenhall is coming off a major injury, Redman is horrible, and the other running backs on the team just don't seem to have the talent or get the reps. If you look at the careers of Mendenhall and Dwyer they are similar.

Mendenhall - 2008 played 4 games his rookie year before getting hurt, and never really looked good doing it. In 2009 he took over for an injured Willie Parker and became the guy. I don't remember if Parker left as a free agent or was cut, but he was never heard from again.

Dwyer - In his first 2 season he only carried the ball 25 times, he did have one nice run of 76 yards but otherwise he wasn't setting the world on fire. Now Dwyer comes in with the incumbent starter injured (Mendenhall is on the other side now) and after the first game he looked very good. Mendenhall is a free agent after the season.

Mendenhall had 3 very nice seasons once he took over. Is history repeating itself? Is now the chance to try to buy low on Dwyer before he goes off and produces like a top 10 back for the next couple of years?

 

[moderated]

he has looked very good, but is anyone really selling him low?

 

[DoubleG]

he has looked very good, but is anyone really selling him low?

I just picked him off the WW in a 10 team dyno. Honestly, it was more a situation of "Mendy Insurance" than I think he's going to be the starter. I see no reason why the Steelers would "move on" from Mendenhall - a 25 year old RB who, over the last 3 years has averaged 265 carries for 1100 yards (4.2 YPC) and 10 TDs - all behind an O-line that most people think isn't all that good.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I like Dwyer a lot in redraft even. I have no idea why no one was even paying attention to him on one of my WWs.

Redman looks washed up before he even got started.

Mendy looked bad before the ACL injury.

Dwyer has made the most of his opportunities.

Hype, its a beautiful thing.

 

[EBF]

I think it's an ugly situation. I like Dwyer and I could see him doing well, but Mendy is also a good back.

It's easy to forget how talented these guys are when they're injured and no longer the shiny new toy on the block.

I think Mendenhall will be tough to nudge aside in the short term, but maybe the team will opt to let him walk after the season. In that case Dwyer would have a lot of value, as he'd be pretty likely to open 2013 as the starter.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I think it's an ugly situation. I like Dwyer and I could see him doing well, but Mendy is also a good back. It's easy to forget how talented these guys are when they're injured and no longer the shiny new toy on the block.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY2vPjooYzoI think Mendenhall will be tough to nudge aside in the short term, but maybe the team will opt to let him walk after the season. In that case Dwyer would have a lot of value, as he'd be pretty likely to open 2013 as the starter.

Mendy will obviously get some type of shot at the feature roll when he gets back but I do not think he's anymore talented than Dwyer, in fact, I think Dwyer is the better back.In Mendenhall's case we have a biggish RB (5'10 225-230) who tries to run like he's 20 lbs. lighter than he is. Last year he was extremely tentative, never hitting the hole hard enough and always choosing to dance at the LOS instead. I've said it a million times, there was/is far too much lateral movement in his game (I've also never seen a RB try to utilize the spin move as much as him). This coupled with his upright running style is honestly a recipe for constantly getting stuffed. He also isn't a very patient runner and exhibited poor vision last year. The situation has been in his favor for last couple of years with only MeMo behind him. This year I just don't see him being able to hold off Dwyer in the long run.Dwyer seems to be the exact inverse of Mendenhall. He lowers his pads, runs hard and has above average vision. He didn't catch many passes in college but seems to have good hands as well.My money is on Dwyer.

 

[Captain Hook]

"Dwyer: Is it time to buy low in dynasty leagues"

ROFLMAO - you mean there IS a dynasty league where he is NOT rostered?

 

[Nucker101]

I'm not sure about his long-term dynasty value since it's possible that the Steelers could potentially add someone to the mix next year through the draft and free agency. I do like him a lot this year though, he's looked like the best RB on the team since pre-season IMO. It'll be interesting to see how much of the workload he gets this week.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I'm not sure about his long-term dynasty value since it's possible that the Steelers could potentially add someone to the mix next year through the draft and free agency. I do like him a lot this year though, he's looked like the best RB on the team since pre-season IMO. It'll be interesting to see how much of the workload he gets this week.

Me thinks around 70-75% of the total offense snaps, up 20-25% from last week. He already played almost twice as much as Redman last week, by all accounts that trend should continue.I'm not sure how well he matches up against NYJ though. The only RBs they've been burned by recently have been of the elusive variety (Spiller, McCoy, Helu).

 

[DoubleG]

"Dwyer: Is it time to buy low in dynasty leagues"ROFLMAO - you mean there IS a dynasty league where he is NOT rostered?

Read post 3. - and I had last claim slot this past week. While everyone else was going after Ogeltree, A. Morris and Pitta, I got Dwyer. Honestly, I think the idea that Dwyer might be Mendenhall's "replacement" in Pittsburgh is not held by a majority of people. I think it's presumed, for the most part, that Mendy will retain his starting role, both this year and long term when he is back from the injury.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Think the time to buy low was this offseason (when most folks were suckered into thinking Isaac Redman was a starting caliber talent).

I think a lot of the guy as a runner. (Always have thought the guy is the best runner in Pittsburgh if healthy)

Going to be interesting to see how Pittsburgh handles this offseason. (Dwyer could make Mendenhall expendable. Or they could elect to split carries between Dwyer/Mendenhall all year & retain Mendenhall for cheaper)

 

[Time Kibitzer]

"Dwyer: Is it time to buy low in dynasty leagues"ROFLMAO - you mean there IS a dynasty league where he is NOT rostered?

Doesn't the usage of the words "buy low" suggest that someone already has him? I'm pretty sure he's simply suggesting now might be a good time to trade for him before his value potentially increases if he gets the starting job.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

"Dwyer: Is it time to buy low in dynasty leagues"ROFLMAO - you mean there IS a dynasty league where he is NOT rostered?

Doesn't the usage of the words "buy low" suggest that someone already has him? I'm pretty sure he's simply suggesting now might be a good time to trade for him before his value potentially increases if he gets the starting job.

I think he was a FA in a fair number of dynasty leagues this offseason. (I'm sure some stashed him on IR)Buy low to me in that case was taking him with a last round rookie pick. Or snatching him up free agent (if your league has post-draft free agency)That period was the buy low period to me (whether he was rostered or not)Is another Dwyer trade opportunity upcoming? Most likely (when Mendenhall does return). I don't think it's a given Mendenhall returns to Pittsburgh next year.

 

[sspunisher]

I was never particularly impressed with Redman and was 100% convinced that Dwyer would steal this job in camp after hearing how he rededicated himself this offseason. Dwyer ended up being a late round lottery ticket on a lot of my teams as a result.

Looks like I was wrong on the time frame but I'm very excited at how the stars are aligning for Dwyer. Revis being ruled out SIGNIFICANTLY increases Dwyer's chance at 20+ carries this weekend. Not trying to be overly dramatic here but I'm pretty comfortable saying that this is the biggest game of Dwyer's football career. It can be the different between extending his football career or the Steelers drafting an RB early next year.

A huge game is freakin crucial here. Do it for your family, John. Do it for the money. Or just do it for my fantasy team until Ryan Mathews gets back k thanks.

 

[Chazzhawk]

"Dwyer: Is it time to buy low in dynasty leagues"ROFLMAO - you mean there IS a dynasty league where he is NOT rostered?

Why I said buy low and not pick up. He is still a total wildcard and you can probably trade something small for him. You wait 3 weeks and he has some good games and it is going to cost you a lot more.

 

[VaTerp]

I was never particularly impressed with Redman and was 100% convinced that Dwyer would steal this job in camp after hearing how he rededicated himself this offseason. Dwyer ended up being a late round lottery ticket on a lot of my teams as a result.

Looks like I was wrong on the time frame but I'm very excited at how the stars are aligning for Dwyer. Revis being ruled out SIGNIFICANTLY increases Dwyer's chance at 20+ carries this weekend. Not trying to be overly dramatic here but I'm pretty comfortable saying that this is the biggest game of Dwyer's football career. It can be the different between extending his football career or the Steelers drafting an RB early next year.

A huge game is freakin crucial here. Do it for your family, John. Do it for the money. Or just do it for my fantasy team until Ryan Mathews gets back k thanks.

Same boat here.

And I agree with pretty much all of this. My HS basketball coach use to say luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. From most accounts Dwyer is now prepared and he should get an opportunity this week.

It's a big huge game for the trajectory of his career and more importantly I need a solid performance with Mathews likely out another week.

 

[infantsam]

I think it's an ugly situation. I like Dwyer and I could see him doing well, but Mendy is also a good back.

It's easy to forget how talented these guys are when they're injured and no longer the shiny new toy on the block.

I mostly agree on Mendy - been pretty much yelling that at the TV for three years.He has gotten much better though. Great athlete - average runner = pretty good starting RB.

Still - he too often makes less with more and makes the wrong choice. 2 is better than -2 and sometimes leads to 4-5. Only Barry Sanders can live w/ that many negative runs. And I don't know that he can really learn what he lacks.

If I were Pitt I'd have been looking already. He's what we have for now.

Now let's see what Dwyer has. Some real competition may be just what Mendy needs.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

This is the third thread opened on Dywer in the last five days so maybe someone can combine everything so replies don't go in multiple directions. Havng said that, here is ESPN bloggger Jamison Hensley's take when asked if he thought Mendenhall would be signing an extesnsion after this season.

My link

Jacob, from Kansas City, Mo., writes: Do you think Rashard Mendenhall has any kind of a shot to get an extension from the Steelers after this season?

Jamison Hensley, from AFC North headquarters, responds: At this point, I would say the odds are against it. There were rumblings before the draft that the Steelers could take a running back (like Doug Martin) as early as the second round. It wouldn't surprise me if the Steelers look to the future and put running back high on their priority list for the 2013 draft. Of course, that's not set in stone because no one knows how this season will unfold. The Steelers will likely ride the hot hand at running back, whether it's Jonathan Dwyer or Isaac Redman. When Mendenhall has fully recovered from ACL surgery, he will get his chances as well to prove he should be in next year's plans. Mendenhall has been a consistent running back, averaging 1,103 rushing yards and scoring 29 touchdowns over the past three seasons. But Mendenhall didn't hit the holes hard last season and preferred to bounce runs to the outside -- not the Steelers' style of running. My guess is another team will be willing to pay him more than the Steelers next offseason, when Mendenhall is a free agent.

As noted, Mendenhall is only 25 but he came into the league at age 20, this is his fifth NFL season and he has had two major injuries and we still haven't seen how he'll respond to his current injury. IOWs, the Steelers have already gotten a return on their investment and the way they operate I doubt they would offer an extension to a RB coming off a major knee surgery. They didn't extend a young Pro Bowl WR in Mike Wallace and still haven't done so and have stated they have no plans to extend him. It doesn't make a lot of sense to think they would extend Mendenhall.If they feel they might be able to squeeze a productive season or two out of him they won't extend him, they will make him an RFA offer like Wallace where they would force the highest compensation and leave him dangling as they did with Wallace and basically force him to play at a low-ball offer. I would imagine Mendy can see that handwriting on the wall so we may see another hold-out drama occur next off-season for the Steelers that is unless Dywer emerges or if they decide to go in another direction at RB in next year's draft but I just don't see them extending Mendenhall, not after getting a fair return on that investment and especially after his second major injury. Little upside to giving him an extension on the Steeler's side IMHO.

 

[Franknbeans]

I don't think the Steelers bring him back next season. They know what they have in him and I think they're looking for something more out of their #1 back. I am hopeful Dwyer will provide some of what they've been missing.

 

[LionsFan78]

Think the time to buy low was this offseason (when most folks were suckered into thinking Isaac Redman was a starting caliber talent).

 

[FF Ninja]

he has looked very good, but is anyone really selling him low?

I just picked him off the WW in a 10 team dyno. Honestly, it was more a situation of "Mendy Insurance" than I think he's going to be the starter. I see no reason why the Steelers would "move on" from Mendenhall - a 25 year old RB who, over the last 3 years has averaged 265 carries for 1100 yards (4.2 YPC) and 10 TDs - all behind an O-line that most people think isn't all that good.

Mendy is more Dwyer insurance than vice versa. I know AP appears to have come back strong from his injury, but it is still likely that we are looking at an exception to the rule there. Mendy will almost certainly be less than 100% this season and he didn't have much to lose to begin with. I will be shocked if Mendy sees 20 touches before week 17. I'll also be shocked if he gets paid in the offseason (by anyone, much less the Steelers). I think he gets a middling contract to be in a RBBC next year. Maybe a 1 year deal ala Hillis.Dwyer and Redman will have their opportunities this year to prove their worth. Redman's injury held him back a bit, so week 2 is Dwyer's turn. Maybe he runs with it, maybe not. Either way, Mendenhall will likely be nothing more than a bit player this year unless he miraculously recovers and the guys ahead of him seriously falter or get injured. If he does get his chance, I expect very little out of him: ~3.7 ypc for maybe 12 carries a game.

 

[RushHour]

I still feel a bit lukewarm about Dwyer. He did look pretty good last week (and in preseason), and he's certainly a better, more powerful runner than Redman, but I don't think he looks like the kind of guy who will just take the starting job and work his way to being a fantasy RB1. Not in that offense, and not with Mendenhall returning at some point.

Everyone is saying that Dwyer will be getting 75-80% of the carries this week because Redman looked bad, but it's just speculation. The Steelers went to Redman early and often last week and it didn't seem from watching the game that they wanted to give Dwyer the opportunity to have a role that wasn't just the lead in a committee at best. Maybe that changes this week, but I still think the whole Steelers running game is a bit uninspiring for fantasy purposes. Honestly, I'd rather take a shot at LeShoure than Dwyer. Seems like I'm in the minority.

I guess I'm talking more about redraft though. Maybe in dynasty he is a good buy.